Tender is the night

Eduardo Escobar,
signed

Yorman Landa, gone.

A plethora of news items concerning the Twins to sort through as we reach the weekend before the winter meetings being:

Tendering deadline

Friday was the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The Twins had five such: infielder Eduardo Escobar, left-handed starter Hector Santiago, right-handed starter Kyle Gibson and relievers Brandon Kinzler and Ryan Pressly. The Twins reached an agreement with Escobar ($2.6 million) and tendered contracts to the other four, so they let none of them go.

No surprises there. I saw some speculation about non-tendering Escobar, but that really didn't seem likely. He is almost certainly not the Twins idea of a long-term shortstop, but he's more likely in my mind to hold the position on opening day than anybody else on the 40-man roster.

Opening a roster slot

The Twins were expected to vacate at least one spot on the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft next week, and they did so Friday by dumping Yorman Landa, a relief prospect

Landa was added to the 40 last winter despite not having pitched above low-A ball. He spent a good chuck of 2016 on the disabled list at High A Fort Myers with shoulder woes, and the Twins didn't merely outright him off the 40-man roster, they non-tendered him. So he's a free agent.

Which, presumably, tells us what the Twins think of his chances of  recovering fully.

New hitting coach hired

James Rowson was named Friday to follow Tom Brunansky as the major league hitting coach. He held the job with the Chicago Cubs in 2012-13 and more recently was working in the Yankees organization.

Mike Bernardino of the Pioneer Press has this on Rowson. I said when Bruno (and Butch Davis) got the ax that the key factors were Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. Sano regressed in 2016 from 2015, and Buxton struggled much of the season. They are Jobs 1 and 1A for Rowson.

Davis's job -- first base coach, base running instruction, outfield instruction -- remains open.

Bill Smith leaving

Terry Ryan, it was announced earlier in the week, has joined the Phillies as a special assignment scout. On Thursday came word that the Twins are not renewing the contract of Bill Smith, who was the general manager for a few years between Ryan's two terms in the job and more recently has been heavily involved in the multi-year upgrade of the spring training complex in Fort Myers.

Smith was atop the food chain when the Twins imploded on the field, so he got the blame for the collapse, probably more of it than he really deserved. It comes with the territory. He's also the GM who OK'd the signings of Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, and the Hammond Stadium upgrades are impressive.

Smith told the Fort Myers newspaper that his departure wasn't his choice. I suppose that the new baseball ops guys decided that with the complex project done, they had no need for that skill set in the organization, and with the additions of a flock of ex-players as special assistants, somebody had to go.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Final thoughts

Bill Smith: Still part of
the front office, but
not the man in charge.

I had to laugh (quietly). The Puckett's Pond blog (currently on the siderail) does a weekly links post, and that compilation has frequently picked a "Dissecting Bill Smith" segment. At least once the poster called it his favorite series of the winter. And then last week's link at least hinted that it had gone long enough.

And it has. This series ran away from me. This will be the 23rd post in the series, and more than half of them were about trades. That explicitly wasn't my intent. As I said in the introductory post, trades are a prominent part of a general manager's job, but there are many other facets. And even the visible part of the trading game -- the trades that are made -- may be dwarfed by the hidden part -- the trades that aren't made.

Smith is not a popular figure with the fans. But after reviewing his tenure, I come away believing that in at least one crucial aspect, the organization improved during his reign.

Smith inherited the job at a time -- after the 2007 season -- when the minor league system was becoming exhausted. The Twins had been drafting in the bottom half for more than five years. They had been unwilling/unable to compete for talent in the hotbeds of foreign baseball, and unwilling/unable to "break slot" for talented players in the draft who fell because of their bonus demands. And with the team continually in contention, the trades of veterans for young talent had largely dried up.

The upper levels provided a few useful pieces early in Smith's reign -- Denard Span, Nick Blackburn -- but the lower levels were relatively barren.

That problem is being felt now. The Twins' Triple A affiliate, Rochester, is coming off back-to-back seasons of more then 90 losses, and it is not graduating impact players to the big club. That failure is rooted in the final years of Terry Ryan's first tenure.

And yet we can see a new foundation rising through the bottom rungs of the organization. Miguel Sano. Eddie Rosario. Oswaldo Arcia. Levi Michael. Kyle Gibson is more advanced, and sidelined by injury, but he fits the pattern too -- he fell in the draft, the Twins took him and went over slot to get him signed.

Player development is like an aircraft carrier; it doesn't turn on a dime. But if/when the Twins infield consists of Rosario at second, Sano at third and Michael at short, it should be remembered that Smith was the man at the helm when they came on board.

And, to be sure, that Ryan was back in charge when they were turned from prospects to players. Reading between the lines, it appears that Ryan is more effective than Smith at setting and enforcing standards.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Other trades of 2011

Jose Morales hit .297
in his three partial
seasons with the Twins.

When: Dec. 16, 2010
What: The Twins sent catcher Jose Morales to Colorado for left-handed pitcher Paul Bargas
Value: Bargas not only hasn't reached the majors, he didn't pitch at all in 2011 because of a brain tumor. Morales opened the season as the Rockies' No. 2 catcher but had only 71 plate appearances (-0.1 WAR, 1 win share). He was nontendered this offseason and signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Twins motivation: Open a spot on the 40-man roster

The Twins traded Morales because they needed roster space to re-sign Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, because he was out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors, and because they had decided they prefered Drew Butera's defensive chops to Morales' batting average.

Bargas reported to camp with an obvious health problem and was quickly found to have a brain tumor. Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune earlier this month wrote about Bargas, who expects to be in camp this spring. (As a sign of how much I like the piece, I link to it despite the Strib's paywall). I don't know enough about Bargas' talent to be optimistic about his future as a pitcher, but I sure will root for him. (Update: Fixed the link.)

When: Jan. 26, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Dusty Hughes off waivers from the Kansas City Royals
Value: Hughes was awful with the Twins (9.95 ERA in 12.2 innings; -0.4 WAR, 0 win shares)
Twins motivation: What I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: He had gotten Twins lefties out while with K.C., and the Twins took this as an indication of his talent.

I still remember seeing one particularly wicked breaking ball Hughes threw in a spring training game to freeze Carl Crawford; that single pitch had me briefly convinced he was a shrewd pickup (and a silly discard by the Royals). He didn't throw enough such pitches, however.

He was outrighted in May. He has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta.

Rob Delaney wasn't
even deemed worthy
of a draft pick as an
amateur player

When: Jan. 28, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Rob Delaney on waivers to Tampa Bay
Value: Delaney made four appearances for the Rays with an ERA of 10.80; no win shares and -0.2 WAR
Twins motivation: Created a spot on the 40-man roster for Hughes.

Delaney, like Anthony Slama, put up good numbers in the minors for the Twins, but the Twins were unwilling to give him a real chance in the majors. The Rays designated Delaney for assignment in September to open a spot for phenom Matt Moore; it's unclear to me if Delaney is still in their system or if he's a free agent he signed this month with Miami.

When: March 20, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Pat Neshek on waivers to San Diego
Value: Neshek worked 24.2 innings for the Padres with an ERA of 4.01; more tellingly, he walked 22 (and struck out 20) in those 24.2 innings. He had 1 win share and 0.0 WAR.
Twins motivation: They wanted to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It was significant that the Twins dumped Neshek even though he still had an option left; that indicates that the organization either had concluded that he was unlikely to regain his pre-injury effectiveness and/or didn't want him around.

He was up and down with the Padres, and he is currently a free agent.

When: Aug. 25, 2011
What: Lost designated hitter Jim Thome on waivers to Cleveland
Value: He had 13 win shares total for the season, 0.5 WAR with the Indians.
Twins motivation: Cleared his salary off the books for the last six weeks or so of the season, gave him a chance to be at least in the fringes of a pennant race and an opportunity to make amends with the fans of his first major league team.

Jim Thome pretended
to play third base for
one pitch against the
Twins in a September
game.

Big name, exceedingly minor deal. It was originally announced as a player-to-be-named trade, but once it was obvious that the Indians weren't making the postseason they changed it to straight cash and not much of it.

Thome has signed with Philadelphia for 2012, and the Phillies are making noises about playing him at first base on occasion. Good luck with that.

When: Sept. 27, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Esmerling Vasquez off waivers from Arizona
Value: The Twins did not add him to the active roster for the final week of the season.
Twins motivation: He's a power arm bullpen possibility.

The Diamondbacks needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and lopped Vasquez, who has pitched in 141 major league games for the D'backs (137 innings, 80 walks, 120 strikeouts). Good arm, uncertain control. The Twins are collecting a bunch of this kind of arm and hoping one of them can figure it out.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Jeff Gray off waivers from Seattle.
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Twins motivation: Another bullpen option.

I'm including this transaction and the following one with the 2011 season because they came just before Bill Smith was removed from the general manager's job, and they ought to be included.

Gray is a knock-around reliever who has been in the majors with Oakland, the Cubs, the White Sox and Seattle. I'm not particularly enthused about him, and would expect that Vasquez and Lester Oliveros (and others) are ahead of him on the totem pole, but Gray is on the 40-man roster, so he's got a chance to make the team this spring.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney off waivers from Cincinnati
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Motivation: Provides some depth for the starting rotation.

Maloney hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, and his stuff isn't all that impressive, but he's put up good numbers in Triple A. Maybe he's what's derisively known as a Quadruple A pitcher, but I suspect he'd be an improvement over Nick Blackburn if given a shot. Of course, Blackburn has two more years and some $10 million left on his contract, so he's got dibs on the rotation berth.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Delmon Young trade

Delmon Young hit some
big home runs for Detroit in
the postseason.

When: Aug. 15, 2011
What: In a waiver deal, the Twins sent outfielder Delmon Young to the Detroit Tigers for right-handed pitcher Lester Oliveros and left-handed pitcher Cole Nelson.
Value: Young had 10 total win shares in 2011; he had 0.1 WAR with the Twins and -0.1 with the Tigers. Oliveros had 1 win share for the season, 0.1 WAR with the Twins. Nelson, a Minnesota native, spent the season in high-A ball.
Twins motivation: They dumped a veteran they weren't planning to retain for two young pitchers (Oliveros is 23, Nelson 22).

This deal was the white flag, the moment at which the Twins conceded that they were not making a run at another AL Central title. This was the first -- and last -- time Bill Smith traded away a veteran for prospects in mid season; his previous in-season trades had gone the other way.

Young had a bizarre season. He displayed almost no power with the Twins (slugging percentage .357), with four homers in more than 300 at-bats, but the defensive metrics depicted an excellent left fielder. He hammered eight regular season homers in less than 170 at-bats with Detroit, and the metrics paint him as a disaster in the outfield there. The Baseball Reference version of wins above replacement actually has him playing better for the Twins than with the Tigers.

So brutal was Young in the outfield with Detroit that by season's end there was speculation that the Tigers would non-tender him (which is what the Twins would likely have done had they not traded him). That didn't happen, perhaps because Young bashed another five homers during the Tigers' two playoff rounds. (He and the Tigers reached an agreement on Tuesday, avoiding an arbitration hearing, for $6.75 million.)

One interesting aspect of this trade is that Jim Leyland installed Young in the No. 3 spot in the batting order, right in front of MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera. Even in 2010, in what appeared to be a breakout season, Young seldom got out of the bottom half of Ron Gardenhire's lineups.

Oliveros is in the mix for a bullpen role in 2012; like many Tigers prospects, he throws hard with uncertain control. (Baseball America says his is the best fastball in the Twins organization.) Nelson is another power arm, albeit further from the majors.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Scott Diamond

Scott Diamond in 2011: 1-5, 5.08 in
Minnesota, 4-14, 55.5 in Rochester.

When: Dec. 9, 2010 and March 28, 2011
What: The Twins selected left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Atlanta Braves system in the Rule V draft on the first date, traded right-handed pitcher Billy Bullock for his rights on the second date.
Value: Bullock spent 2011 in the minors, mostly in Double A with a one-inning taste of Triple A. Diamond spent most of 2011 in Triple A, but made seven starts for Minnesota in the second half of the season. Diamond earned one win share and 0.1 WAR.
Twins motivation: Discerning that is pretty much the point of this post.

The acquisition of Scott Diamond doesn't currently fit my criteria as a major deal. Yet it's getting the full treatment here because:

• It was complex;
• It involves a second-round draft pick (Bullock);
• It could become significant, if Diamond emerges as a member of the starting rotation or Bullock becomes a standout reliever;
• It says something about the scarcity of left-handed pitching;
• I like Diamond for non-objective reasons; and
• It's my blog and you can't stop me.

Diamond appeared a highly sensible Rule V pick when the Twins plucked him. But he got only limited exposure in exhibition play and didn't display the command his scouting reports said he had. He didn't force his way onto the 25-man roster, and Rule V guys have to be on the active roster or returned whence they came.

The Twins didn't want to give him up, and they surrendered 2009 second-rounder Bullock to get Diamond's unfettered rights and then sent the lefty to Triple A.

This deal was not well-received in the Twins blog community. And considering the rate in subsequent months with which the Twins collecting potential power arms for relief work (Lester Oliveros, Jeff Gray, Esmerling Vasquez ...) since dealing the hard-throwing Bullock, it remains a curious decision.

A good part of what happened here, I have become convinced, is that the Twins found themselves bereft of left-handed starters in the upper minors. Left-handed pitching is inherently valuable -- it's why you so often hear the phrase "left-handed and breathing" used to explain why marginal hurlers get so many chances -- and the Twins were willing to risk overpaying for a southpaw for the Rochester rotation who might also serve as a Plan C for the major league rotation.

And besides, hard-throwing bullpen prospects aren't all that hard to come by. Hard-throwers with command, that's another thing.

Bullock didn't have a particularly great season in the Atlanta organization. He did pile up the strikeouts (more than 12 Ks per nine innings), but he also piled up the walks (more than six walks per nine innings). Diamond didn't shine in 2011 either, and in the majors displayed a Kevin Slowey-like tendency to pitch acceptably well for four or five innings before crumbling.

But judging a starter on his first seven major league starts is a fool's game. Greg Maddux had an ERA above 5 in his first full season in a big league rotation.

I don't expect either Bullock or Diamond to open 2012 with their respective parent club. I don't know that either is all that likely to grow into a key performer in the majors. Bullock is too wild; Diamond's stuff is marginal.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Bill Smith looks on as Tsuyoshi Nishioka dons
his Twins jersey during his signing press conference.

When: December 17, 2010
What: Completed the acquisition of infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka from the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese Pacific League. The Twins paid the Marines $5.3 million in a posting fee for the rights to negotiate with him, and signed Nishioka to a three year deal worth $9.25 million, plus a fourth-season option.
Value: He had 3 win shares and a WAR of -1.8 in an injury-shortened 2011.
Twins motivation: They were looking for a cheaper, long-term anchor for their middle infield.

Many things went desperately wrong for the Twins in 2011. One of the biggest was the failure of the Nishioka signing.

As I said at the time, he wasn't going to be a star. But he was simply not close to a quality major league regular. He didn't hit; he lacked the arm strength to play shortstop; he suffered a broken leg in the first week of the season on the double play pivot as a second baseman.

Terry Ryan has said frequently since assuming the general manager's job that the Twins were giving Nishioka a mulligan. He had the early injury, he had the cultural transition, he had a hamstring problem in September. It was a lost season -- but the Twins still have an investment in him, and some $6 million yet to pay him. So they'll hope that a winter's rehab will solve the leg problems that bedeviled him last year, and that a sounder leg will mean a sounder player.

The Twins allowed him plenty of leeway in 2011. They treated him as an established star, which he was in Japan. I doubt he'll get the same hands-off treatment this time around. The financial investment probably means he'll open the season on the major league roster, but he'll enter camp behind newcomer Jamie Carroll and holdover Alexi Casilla -- and if he plays to last season's low level, he won't keep even the bench job all that long.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: The Hardy-Hoey trade

J.J. Hardy was charged with 11 errors in 2010
with the Twins, six in 2011 with Baltimore.

When: Dec. 9, 2010
What: The Twins traded shortstop J.J. Hardy, infielder Brendan Harris and cash to Baltimore for right-handed pitchers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Value: Hardy is credited with 22 win shares and 4.1 WAR in 2011; Hoey with zero WS and -0.4 WAR. Neither Harris nor Jacobson played in the majors in 2011. Hardy, who turned 29 in August, signed a three-year deal with the Orioles during the 2011 season. Hoey was sold to Toronto this offseason in a waiver deal. Harris is a free agent. Jacobson remains in the Twins system.
Twins motivation: A combination of payroll cutting, adding velocity-oriented bullpen options and the belief that Hardy didn't fit Target Field/wasn't as good as his 2007-08 seasons indicate/was readily replaceable.

As with the Capps-Ramos trade discussed here last week, it would be difficult to make this deal turn out any worse for the Twins than it did in 2011.

Jim Hoey allowed
four homers in
24.2 innings in 2011.

Hoey indeed had a high-velocity fast ball. But he lacked a useful secondary pitch and command and movement on the fastball, which made him imminently hittable and, ultimately, not the successor to the LaTroy Hawkins-Jesse Crain line of middle-relief power arms.

And Hardy had the best offensive season of his rather inconsistent career.

Hardy had two good power seasons for Milwaukee in 2007-08, when he averaged 25 homers. But he fell off badly in 2009, and the Brewers traded him to make room for the younger, rangier and cheaper Alcedes Escobar (whom they later traded in the Zach Greinke deal). With the Twins, Hardy again didn't hit for the anticipated power (six homers) and was limited to 95 starts at shortstop in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota.

With Baltimore in 2011, he bopped 30 homers (and added 27 doubles). Zing!

One factor may be health. He had a hand injury early in the 2010 season and it was never fully healed. He implied last season that he had the same problem early in 2011 and the Orioles (unlike the Twins) medical staff was able to fix it.

Another factor may be ballparks. Home runs come easier in Camden Yards than in Target Field. And he plays more road games now in smaller yards, such as Fenway Park, than he did in the AL Central, where Detroit and Kansas City offer two other difficult places to hit long balls. He hit 15 homers home and road last season; in 2010, he hit one homer in Minnesota, five on the road.

What is Hardy's real level of offensive ability? He has in 2007-11 three seasons of 26, 24 and 30 homers; he also has seasons of 6 and 11. Much of his offensive value is in his power; he has one season in his career with an OBP above .330. If he ain't slugging, he ain't hitting -- and in the offseason of 2010-11, he hadn't slugged for two years.

So Hardy was -- like Ramos -- at a low point of value when the Twins moved him.

The Twins didn't trade him until they had the Tsuyoshi Nishioka deal essentially in place. They expected Nishi to fill one of the middle infield slots; that didn't work either. (I'll discuss the Nishioka deal in another post.) Misreading Nishioka's ability played a role in trading away Hardy.

Then there's this: With the giant Mauer contract about to kick in, the Twins had to get cheaper at other roster spots. Even with the jettisoning of most of the bullpen veterans and the departure of second baseman Orlando Hudson, they essentially needed to clear out one of Carl Pavano, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel or Hardy.

They chose the one who had had the worst 2010 season. They also unloaded Brendan Harris, although I don't know that they saved much money on that (I think they gave the O's enough cash to pay for Harris' major-league deal).

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Other trades of 2010

Steve Tolleson got to play in Target Field in 2010,
but not as a member of the home team.

When: Dec. 12, 2009
What: Traded right-handed pitcher Boof Bonser to the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Chris Province.
Value: Bonser pitched two innings for Boston in 2010 before being released. He has worked 25 major league innings since the trade (all in 2010, mostly with Oakland) with an ERA of 6.12. He recently signed a minor-league deal with the San Francisco Giants. Province did not pitch well in 2010 in the Twins system and decided to quit playing last spring.
Twins motivation: Avoid going to arbitration with Bonser.

Bonser's once-promising career has been derailed by injuries. As matters stand, nothing to see here.

When: Feb.1, 2010
What: Waived infielder Steve Tolleson, who was claimed by Oakland
Value: Tolleson played in 25 games for Oakland in 2010. He spent 2011 in the minors, was traded in midseason to the San Diego Padres, was released after the season and signed to a minor league deal by Baltimore.
Twins motivation: Open a 40-man roster spot that was filled three days later by the signing of Orlando Hudson.

Tolleson's major league future, if any, figures to be as a utility infielder, and he probably doesn't have the arm to handle the shortstop part of the job.

When: Aug. 25, 2010
What: Claimed Randy Flores on waivers from Colorado
Value: Got 11 outs in 11 appearances for the Twins with an ERA of 4.91.
Twins motivation: Injuries to Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay left the Twins short of lefty relievers.

The Twins took a flyer on Flores, and he quickly fell out of favor with Ron Gardenhire.

When: Aug. 27, 2010
What: Traded right-hander Loek Van Mil to the Angels for left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes
Value: Fuentes gave up no runs in 9.2 innings with the Twins. Van Mil has not pitched in the majors

Matt Fox in his
sole game with
Minnesota.

Twins motivation: Injuries to Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay left the Twins short of lefty relievers.

Fuentes -- who had been closing in Anaheim -- was obviously over-qualified for the LOOGY role and was always viewed strictly as a short-term rental. The Twins made no serious attempt to retain him as a free agent, and he signed with Oakland. Van Mil, a unique prospect (7-foot-1 from the Netherlands), had a decent year in Double A and still could, if he ever manages to stay healthy, emerge as a major league relief option.

When: Sept. 9, 2010
What: Waived right-hander Matt Fox, who was claimed by Boston.
Value: Fox has pitched 1.2 major league innings since leaving the Twins. He signed a minor-league deal this offseason with Seattle.
Twins motivation: Opened a spot on the 40-man roster for Ben Revere.

Fox was put on the 40 to make one memorable spot start. My guess is that that will remain the high point of his career.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Capps-Ramos trade

Wilson Ramos hit
16 home runs in 2011
for the Washington
Nationals, then
survived a kidnapping
in his native
Venezuela.

When: July 29, 2010
What: The Twins acquired relief pitcher Matt Capps from Washington for catcher Wilson Ramos and left-handed pitcher Joe Testa
Value: Capps had 13 total win shares in 2010 and 1.1 WAR during his time with the Twins that season. He was retained for 2011 and earned 7 win shares and 0.8 WAR. Ramos had 3 total win shares in 2010 and 13 more last season; he has had 2.7 WAR with Washington. Testa has not reached the majors and pitched in high A ball in 2011 at age 25.
Twins motivation: Bullpen help for the pennant push; also an eye to the 2011 bullpen.

This trade soured badly on the Twins in 2011. Capps, relied on to anchor a reconstructed bullpen, had a poor season. Ramos took over the Nationals catching job and finished fourth in the National League rookie of the year voting. Ramos' absence from the Twins system was easily noted with Joe Mauer spending much of the season on the shelf. Even the unheralded Testa put up a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors.

All of this might be forgiven had Capps played a major role in a World Series trip in 2010. But the Twins got swept out in the first round, and the closer never had a lead to protect.

The trade, to state the obvious, has not worked for the Twins. What happened?

A big part of the trade's failure may be in how the Twins (and others) viewed Ramos.

He was at the time generally considered one of Minnesota's top prospects: Major-league ready (or nearly so) at a premium position. He had some drawbacks as well. He had a history in the minors of injury. He was hitting a mere .241 in Triple A at the time of the trade. And in a brief stint with the big league team during a Mauer injury, he followed an initial flurry of base hits with a series of easy outs on breaking balls.

There had been debate (with this corner of the Internet having its say) on whether Ramos was more valuable to the Twins as a long-term backup to Joe Mauer (who was, at the time of the trade, signed for another eight seasons) or as trade bait. Ron Gardenhire during spring training briefly made a public argument for keeping Ramos on the 25-man roster. Ramos was instead optioned to Triple A, which prevented his service time clock from starting and theoretically enhanced his trade appeal.

Going into 2011, Baseball America had dropped Ramos on its prospect list from No. 58 (entering 2010) to No. 96, an indication that the consensus opinion on him around the game had soured somewhat.

The Twins, in short, sold Ramos at the low point of his value.

Matt Capps is 6-7 with 31 saves
in his time with the Twins. 

As for why the Twins traded for a closer: Joe Nathan had blown out his elbow early in spring training. Jon Rauch had filled in at least adequately in the ninth-inning role (21 saves, four blown saves) but was showing signs of deterioration. (In nine appearances in the month of July, he had just one hitless outing, and his ERA had risen from 2.40 to 3.05.) The Twins felt a need to shore up the bullpen, and once Capps came on board, Rauch seldom appeared in a game situation (two holds, one of them a one-out appearance, and a win in an extra-inning game).

The Twins also knew that Rauch, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were all destined for free agency and were unlikely to return in 2011. Capps would not be free-agent eligible until after 2011; they were trading for him not only for immediate use, but as a bullpen cornerstone in the coming season.

It is safe to say that the trade was not viewed well by Twins-devoted bloggers at the time, and even less so now. But the Twins are doubling down on this deal. They clearly like Capps as a pitcher -- not only enough to give up Ramos for him, but enough to bring him back for 2012 after 2011 didn't go well on any level.

This series is called "Dissecting the Bill Smith era", but one of my basic precepts is that Smith did not make these moves in a vacuum.  I know of no reason to believe that he substituted his judgment over those of more established talent evaluators, particularly Terry Ryan and Mike Radcliffe.

If the Twins overvalued Capps and undervalued Ramos -- and off 2011, that appears to be the case -- it was an organizational failure.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Hardy-Gomez trade

Carlos Gomez: Eye-popping range, head-shaking decisions.

When: Nov. 6, 2009
What: The Twins acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from Milwaukee in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.
Value: Hardy had 10 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota. Gomez, still with the Brewers, has had 11 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010-11.
Twins motivation: Fill the shortstop hole and unload Gomez.

This trade came quickly, just days after the Giants wrapped up their World Series title.

J.J. Hardy: One and
done with the Twins.

Gomez had clearly fallen out of favor with the Twins. The most obvious piece of evidence for that: In September 2009, with Justin Morneau out of the lineup with a stress fracture in his back, Ron Gardenhire could have put Denard Span in right and Gomez in center. Instead, he filled the right field gap opened by the shift of Michael Cuddyer to first base with Jason Kubel and the DH spot vacated by Kubel with a platoon of Brendan Harris and Jose Morales.This was a far weaker defensive alignment, and the Harris/Morales platoon wasn't much at the plate either.

ABG -- Anybody But Gomez.

Hardy had also fallen out of favor with the Brewers, The shortstop had bopped 26 homers in '07 and 24 more in '08, but never got his bat going in '09. He got optioned back to Triple A in favor of prospect Alcedes Escobar (now with Kansas City) late in the season in a transparent move to halt his service time calendar and make him more attractive trade bait.

So the two teams traded their disappointments in hopes of filling lineup gaps.

Gomez, who lost the center field job in Minnesota after being given it, didn't hang on to the center field job in Milwaukee either. Hardy hurt his hand early in the season, started just 95 games at short and slugged under .400 for the season -- nothing that increased his value. The Twins traded him after the 2010 season; we'll deal with that trade later.

I daresay both teams were dissatisfied with the results of this trade.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2009 trades

Craig Breslow: Not a wise discard by the Twins

When: Feb. 18, 2009
What: Waived Bobby Korecky
Value: He has pitched six major league innings since then, allowing nine runs.
Motivation: Opening a roster spot for free agent Luis Ayala

Not much to see here. Arizona claimed Korecky, but he washed out with them. He spent the 2010 season in independent ball, then pitched in the Toronto system last season.

When:  April 17, 2009
What: Claimed Juan Morillo on waivers from Colorado
Value: Pitched all of two innings for the Twins, allowing five runs.
Motivation: He threw hard.

Juan Morillo threw a legitimate upper 90s fastball. Colorado couldn't tame it; neither could the Twins. He was released to a Japanese team in November 2009.

When: May 20, 2009
What: Sold Craig Breslow to Oakland on waivers
Value: Breslow has had 17 win shares in 2009-11, 3.2 WAR with Oakland
Motivation: Over-reaction to 14 innings.

As I noted in the 2008 acquistion of Breslow, Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to use the lefty in game situations. With the departure via free agency of Denys Reyes, Breslow entered 2009 as the primary lefty in the pen. He struggled early, and the Twins waived him, intending (so they've since said) to outright him to Rochester to get straightened out.

Instead, Oakland claimed him. He has made 202 appearances with the A's since, compiling an ERA of 3.14. The 2011 season was easily his least effective, however. Still, on the whole, the Twins would have been better off keeping him around. (Oakland traded him to Arizona this winter.)

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Rauch trade

Jon Rauch in 2009. He was Baseball
America's minor league player of the year
in 2000, when he was in the
Chicago White Sox organization.

When: Aug. 28, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Jon Rauch from Arizona for RHP Kevin Mulvey
Value: Rauch conributed 1.9 WAR for Minnesota in 2009-10. He had 9 win shares for the Twins in 210 and 7 total in 2009. Mulvey contributed just 26 innings to Arizona with a WAR of -0.3 and was designated for assignment in September. He may be a free agent. Rauch spent 2011 with Toronto and singed last week with the New York Mets as a free agent.
Twins motivation: Bullpen depth

As with Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano, Rauch was a late-season addition that worked. Mulvey, a piece of the Johan Santana deal, has not panned out as a prospect. Rauch went 5-1 with five holds down the stretch in 2009, then racked up 21 saves in about a half season as closer in 2010 when Joe Nathan blew out his elbow.

The Twins let him go as a free agent after 2010, and he spent 2011 with Toronto, where he had 11 saves (and five blown saves) with an ERA of 4.85.

It is, in retrospect, interesting how far Mulvey had fallen by the time of the trade and has continued to fall. When the Twins acquired him (just before spring training 2008), he was considered a nearly-ready middle-of-the-rotation prospect. A season-plus later, he was dealt even up for a middle reliever -- not something one does with a good starting prospect. And last summer, Mulvey was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. I don't know if he's still in their system or if he's a free agent.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Pavano trade

Carl Pavano in 2010, when
he went 17-11, 3.75 with a AL-best
seven complete games.

When: August 9, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Carl Pavano from Cleveland in a waiver deal for RHP Yohan Pino
Value: Pavano provided 0.8 WAR after the trade in 2009. He has remained with the Twins on two free-agent contracts and provided 5.5 WAR in 2010 and 2011. He had 7 win shares total in 2009, 15 in 2010 and 9 in 2011. Pino has yet to reach the majors and ended 2011 in the Toronto organization.
Twins motivation: Reinforce the starting rotation.

The Twins were well behind the Detroit Tigers when they traded for Pavano, and their rotation -- particularly Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano -- was spluttering. Pavano was trying to rebuild his reputation after an injury-riddled three seasons with the Yankees in which he got dubbed "American Idle" by the NYC tabs.

He has been a reliable starter with Minnesota, far more so than I expected -- 12 starts in less than two months in 2009, 32 starts in 2010, 33 starts in 2011. He has one more season to go on his second Twins contract, and I remain stubbornly wary of his declining strikeout rate.

But it has to be said that this trade worked very well for Minnesota. And for Pavano.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Cabrera trade

Since playing for the Twins,
Orlando Cabrera has been with
Cincinnati, Cleveland and
San Francisco. He is currently
a free agent.

When: July 31, 2009
What: The Twins acquired SS Orlando Cabrera from Oakland for minor league SS Tyler Ladendorf
Values: Ladendorf has yet to play in the majors. Cabrera had 0.2 WAR in his two months with Minnesota, 14 total win shares for the season (my resource for the win shares doesn't split them between the two teams).
Twins motivation: Stabilizing the infield for the stretch run.

The Twins made no significant trades in the 2008-09 offseason. The 2008 season had ended just shy of a divisional title (they lost a tie-breaking Game 163 1-0 to the White Sox), but it also ended with the organization confident that the young starting rotation of the second half (alphabetically Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Franscisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey) was good for years to come and confident that Alexi Casilla had nailed down second base.

So they brought in Joe Crede as a free agent to play third. LaVelle Neal wrote going into spring training that the infield of Justin Morneau (1b), Casilla (2b), Crede (3b) and Nick Punto (ss) might be the best in Twins history.

September's infield was Michael Cuddyer (1b), Punto (2b), Matt Tolbert (3b) and Cabrera (ss). Morneau and Crede were out with back problems, Casilla got bounced for ineffectiveness, and Cabrera was brought in to play short.

The O-Cab didn't do much with the bat  in August (.259/.283/.375), and he committed plenty of physical errors and showed limited range in the field throughout his Twins tenure. But he (like Punto and Tolbert) hit in September (.315/.338/.477), and he didn't make mental errors.

The Twins didn't bring Cabrera back as a free agent in 2010. He was a two-month rental, and he got by on defense in part because he was flanked by two other shortstops in Punto and Tolbert. It worked; the Twins caught the Tigers in the final weekend of the season and won Game 163, with Cabrera contributing a crucial home run.

Ladendorf was a second-round draft pick in 2008 who put up some impressive numbers in junior college ball.  He remains in the Oakland farm system but has not hit, even though the A's affiliates play in pretty strong hitters' environments.

This mid-season rent-a-vet move worked, and it doesn't appear to have cost the Twins much at all.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2008 trades

What: Craig Monroe, acquired from the Chicago Cubs in what Baseball Reference describes as a "conditional deal."
When: Nov. 13, 2007
Value: 3 win shares. -0.8 WAR before being released in August
Twins motivation: Outfield depth.

This was Bill Smith's first transaction as general manager, and it was flawed in two crucial aspects.

First, he apparently misunderstood the finances and didn't realize that by acquiring Monroe directly from the Cubs he couldn't offer Monroe as low a salary as he had intended. Second was what I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: Monroe had always hit the Twins well, and the Twins mistook that for an indication of his talent. They didn't comprehend that the rest of the league got him out.

At least he didn't cost the Twins anything. No "player to be named" was ever named.

R. A Dickey: Now a rotation
cornerstone with the Mets

What: Traded RHP R.A. Dickey to Seattle for C Jair Fernandez
When: 3-28-08
Value: Fernandez has not reached the majors; Dickey had 3 win shares and 0.4 WAR with Seattle before being released.
Motivation: minor league catching depth

A rather involved series of transactions here. The Twins had signed Dickey, who was in the process of converting himself into a knuckleballer, to a minor league deal just before the winter meetings. The Mariners then took Dickey in the Rule V draft. As opening day approached, Seattle traded Fernandez to the Twins for the rights to Dickey, which allowed the M's to send him to the minors.

Fernandez was a Class A catcher at the time; he has bounced around the Twins minor league system since, always as a backup. He became a minor league free agent last month.

Seattle released Dickey after the 2008 season; the Twins signed him again, and released him after 2009. He has since emerged as a reliable starter with the Mets. The Twins were a little too early on him.

What: Claimed INF Sergio Santos on waivers
When: 5-16-08
Value: None as a minor league infielder
Motivation: ?

Sergio Santos in 2008 was an infielder who couldn't hit but had a strong arm. The Twins picked him up apparently with the notion of converting him to pitching, but he was unwilling to make the switch, and the Twins cut him loose. The White Sox picked him up for 2009, convinced him late in the season to try pitching, and he ended 2011 as their closer.

As with Dickey, right idea at the wrong time.

What: Claimed LHP Craig Breslow on waivers
When: 5-29-08
Value: Six win shares, 1.1 WAR that season with Twins; 23 win shares, 4 WAR from 2008 to now.
Motivation: Bullpen depth

A good pickup by the Twins, negated to a degree by Ron Gardenhire's inexplicable unwillingness to let him pitch in game situations.

What: Sold RHP Livan Hernandez to Colorado in a waiver deal
When: 8-6-2008
Value: Three win shares total for season, -1.7 WAR for season.
Motivation: Making room in the starting rotation for Francisco Liriano.

The Twins signed the rubber-armed veteran to anchor their rotation in the wakes of the Garza and Santana trades. By midseason Liriano had started pitching well in the minors, and Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins had established themselves as more effective than Hernandez.

The Twins over the years have taken outside criticism for this kind of early-season veteran use. I think it's unfair. Signing a Hernandez, a Ramon Ortiz, a Sidney Ponson is only partly hoping for a surprise. It's also buying time for a younger pitcher to mature or rehab in the minors.

"Everyday Eddie"
Guardado ended his
career in spring
training 2010
with the Nationals.

What: Traded RHP Mark Hamberger to Texas for LHP Eddie Guardado
When: 8-25-08
Value: Hamberger made his major league debut in September 2011, earning one win share and no WAR. Guardado pitched seven mostly ineffective innings for the Twins.
Motivation: Bullpen help.

The Twins were chasing the White Sox; the bullpen was thin; Gardenhire, for some reason, wouldn't use Breslow; Guardado, despite a badly frayed shoulder, was having a good season with Texas.

The Twins gave up a Class A arm who hadn't even been drafted for the veteran. This one could begin to backfire big time, as Hamburger has pushed his way to the majors.

What: Sent RHP Brian Bass to Baltimore in a conditional deal
When: 9-5-08
Value: He has had 4 win shares and -0.5 WAR since the deal.
Motivation: Addition by subtraction.

As with the Monroe deal, no player to be named was ever named.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Santana trade

Johan Santana won two Cy Young awards
while with the Twins (2004 and 2006). He now
gets $25 million a year from the Mets and did
not pitch in 2011.

When: Feb. 2, 2008
What: LHS Johan Santana to the New York Mets for CF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Value: Santana has earned 49 win shares and 14.4 WAR since the trade. Gomez has 30 WS, 4.1 WAR; Humber 13 WS and 3.4 WAR; Mulvey 0 and -0.5. Guerra has not reached the majors.
Twins motivation: Avoiding Santana's walk year; secondary motivations, trimming payroll, adding an outfielder.

Underlying the decision to trade Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason was the minor circus that accompanied Torii Hunter during his 2007 walk year. It seemed to team management that every road trip brought the same story: Where will Hunter play next? And Hunter was only too willing to fuel the speculation.

Correctly or not, Ron Gardenhire and Co. felt that was a factor in the team's decline in 2007. When, in the immediate wake of that disappointing season, Santana indicated that he was not likely to re-sign with the Twins, the brass felt it best to trade him immediately.

The Twins say
Deolis Guerra was
effective after being
moved to the bullpen
last season in
Double A.

It's an arguable decision. The Twins could have kept Santana for 2008, offered him arbitration and pocketed a pair of draft picks when he left. On the other hand, the media circus that accompanied the winter meetings that offseason, when there was a fresh rumor every few hours, suggests that the issue of Santana's future would have dominated the 2008 season.

Just going off the results, however, hanging on to Santana for 2008 might have worked better for Minnesota. Gomez never fully earned Gardenhire's confidence and ultimately lost his starting spot in the outfield to Denard Span. Humber washed out with the Twins and then Kansas City before emerging last season as a respectable starter for the White Sox. Mulvey's career appears to have stalled. Only Guerra remains in the Twins system, and he looks less like a useful piece each year.

Theoretically, the four players the Twins got in the Santana trade were more than the equivalent of a (low) first round pick and a sandwich pic. It simply didn't turn out that way.

Gomez and Mulvey were more valuable to the Twins in terms of what they got in future trades than for what they did in Minnesota.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Young-Garza trade

Almost all of Delmon
Young's value with the
Twins came in 2010.

When: Nov. 28, 2007
What: The Twins sent RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay for RF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
Values: Garza has earned 44 win shares and 11.9 WAR (wins above replacement) since the trade; Bartlett 64 WS and 13.9 WAR; Morlan has yet to play in the majors. Young has earned 52 WS, 1.3 WAR; Harris 19 WS, -0.2 WAR; Pridie 4 WS, 0.3 WAR. The three players Tampa Bay received have earned 108 win shares and 25.8 wins above replacement since the trade; the three players the Twins got earned 75 WS, 1.4 WAR. None of the six remain with the same team.
Twins motivation: Plugging outfield holes.

When Bill Smith inherited the general manager's job in September 2007, he faced two large and obvious issues: The pending free agency of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana's walk year.

Connected to the Hunter issue was that the 2007 Twins had a gaping hole in left field. Since it was quite obvious that the Twins were not about to meet Hunter's price, Smith was looking at two vacancies in the 2008 outfield.

Young was an intriguing trade target -- young, strong, he had hit .288 and driven in 90-plus runs as a 21-year-old in 2007. He appeared fully capable of living up to his status as the No. 1 overall pick in 2003.

Garza was also a first-round draft pick with intriguing talent. The Twins had a surplus of young starting pitchers and a shortage of usable outfielders; Garza and Young were the obvious cornerstones of the trade.

Brendan Harris washed out as
a second baseman early in 2008
and spent his Twins tenure
shuffling between third base,
shortstop and the bench.

But Young was not only a former first pick but somewhat more accomplished in the majors already. The Rays needed something more -- and that something more turned the trade in their favor.

I have always believed, reading between the lines, that Ron Gardenhire was never sold on Bartlett as his shortstop. He was reluctant to play Bartlett and only installed him in the lineup in 2006 when then-GM Terry Ryan gave him no choice by dealing away veteran Juan Castro. In 2007, Bartlett committed a string of costly early-inning errors down the stretch that helped bury the Twins' final chances of getting back into the race.

It was the exchange of shortstops -- Bartlett for Harris -- that made this a plus trade for Tampa Bay. Garza for Young is even enough to justify given the needs of the Twins at the time; Pridie and Morlan are essentially irrelevant. But Harris' defensive deficiencies -- which were evident in the defensive metrics at the time -- kept him from becoming a regular with the Twins. And the Twins haven't had a 100-game shortstop season since dumping Bartlett.

Neither Young nor Garza have so far truly lived up to expectations. Both were traded within the past year, and there are reports that the Cubs are shopping Garza around.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Evaluating the trades

Trades are rooted in a variety of motivations. Some are made with an eye to the future; some are made with the intention of winning now. Some are made out of financial necessity; some are made to add talent. Some are made to open a space for a prospect, some are made to fill a lineup gap no prospect is ready to fill.

The wheelin' and
dealin' Mr. Smith:
40 trades in four years.

At one point or another in his four years as the Twins general manager, Bill Smith made deals for all those reasons. Using Baseball Reference as a source, I compiled a list of 40 transactions Smith made that involved exchanging a player for either another player or cash.

Releasing a player (Juan Rincon, 2008) doesn't count; the Twins received nothing for him. Losing a ranked free agent and receiving draft picks as a result (Jesse Crain, 2011) also doesn't count; the Twins didn't pick his destination. Signing a free agent (Jim Thome, 2010) doesn't count. Claiming or losing a player on waivers (Jim Thome, 2011) does. My criteria is that it had to be an active transaction between two teams.

Some of the 40 trades were obviously big deals -- the Santana trade, for example. Some were exceedingly minor -- waiving Bobby Korecky. Some look minor but may yet turn into something valuable for one of the the teams (Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado, 2008).

In future posts, I'll evaluate Smith's trades, year by year. I'll evaluate them by identifying what the motivation was behind the deal, and by how well the trade met the desired effect. The biggest trades will get individual posts; the minor ones will be lumped together. I will cite, as overall stats, both win shares and Baseball Reference's version of wins above replacement.

One more point about this project: It is inevitably flawed. Nobody on the outside can fully know what the options were. We don't know what possible trades went unmade. I will not condemn the Santana trade on the basis that a competing offer was better; we don't know what, if any, competing offers were made. What we know is what was done. That's all I have to work with. And that can be complicated enough.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Draft and develop

Let's look at how Twins draftees of the past half-decade -- the men drafted and/or developed by the organization under Bill Smith -- have fared. Keep in mind: the more recent they are, the less certain we can be about them. The early drafts are the ones that should have produced major league and Triple-A players by now.

Chris Parmelee
impressed in a
September callup.

2006: Chris Parmelee was Minnesota's first round pick, Joe Benson their second rounder. Both were taken out of high school. We saw quite a bit of each in September, and Benson in particular needs more minor league time. They may not have developed as quickly as we'd like, but there's still promise there.

Other notables: Danny Valencia (19th round), collegian, is the Twins third baseman.  LHP Tyler Robertson (3rd) has had arm problems, is now seen as a bullpen possibility, not as a starter,but is still viewed highly enough to be added last week to the 40-man roster. RHP Jeff Manship (14th) was a collegian who has reached the majors but is not an impact player. Brian Dinkleman (8th) re-signed with the Twins as a minor league free agent.

2007: Ben Revere, first round pick, figures to be a regular in the major league outfield in 2012. You know the story there: His tools are either outstanding (speed, contact hitting) or very weak (power, throwing arm). Angel Morales (3rd) is a Puerto Rican outfielder who has displayed great talent but has been stalled by injuries. He was not added to the 40 last week and is eligible for the Rule V draft.

Dan Rohlfing split
2011 between High A
and Double A.

The 2007 draft is heavy on catchers named Daniel: Danny Rams (2nd round), Danny Lehmann (8th), Dan Rohlfing (14th). Rams has power but has contact issues; Lehmann has defensive skills and is the closest to getting to the majors but figures to be a Drew Butera-type backup.

2008: The first draft of the Bill Smith era, and the first conducted by scouting director Deron Johnson, featured two first round picks and a supplemental first rounder.

• Aaron Hicks, outfielder, has made slow progress that included two seasons in low A ball. Scouts still love his tools, and his plate discipline is outstanding, but the switch-hitter continues to fail from the left side. The Twins are being outwardly patient with that, but it's becoming an issue.
• Carlos Guterriez, college pitcher, has yet to master a secondary pitch to go with his high-quality sinker and had some arm problems late last season. He may be a bullpen factor this season. He was added to the 40 man roster.
• Shooter Hunt, college pitcher, lost the strike zone completely in his second season and hasn't gotten it back enough to be reckoned a prospect. 

Others of note: Tyler Ladendorf, college shortstop (2nd round), was traded to Oakland in 2009 for Orlando Cabrera. ... Kolten Wong (16th) went to college; the infielder was a first-round selection last summer and is thought to be on a fast track to the majors.

2009: Kyle Gibson slipped to the Twins because of injury concerns. He figured to be a rotation factor in 2012, but instead will spend it rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Catcher Chris Herrmann
also plays in the outfield.

Supplemental rounder Matt Bashore also has had ligament replacement surgery. Billy Bullock (2nd) was traded for Scott Diamond last spring. Brian Dozier (8th) may wind up in the Twins infield by midseason. Chris Herrmann (6th) may be the best catching prospect in the system, with sterling OBPs; he finished 2011 in Double A. Eric Decker (27th) didn't sign, is now playing wide receiver for the Denver Broncos.

As I noted at the time of the draft, the Twins drafted heavily early that year on power arms with injury concerns. The risk so far has not been rewarded.

2010: Alex Wimmers, college pitcher, lost most of 2011 to wildness issues that appeared to be corrected late in the season. Control was his strong suit; if that isn't back fully, it was a lost pick.

Niko Goodwin (2nd) is a raw high school talent a long, long ways away. He's a shortstop now, but that may change. Eddie Rosario (4th) had a big year in the Appy League playing center field, and the Twins, always long on outfielders and short on infielders, are testing him at second base.

2011: Levi Michael (1st round), Travis Harrison (supplemental) and Hudson Boyd (supplemental) all signed at the deadline and didn't play in the minors last season. Harrison Boer (2nd) looked good in the Appy League, but as a college pitcher should.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Acquiring young players

The upper levels of the Minnesota farm system
dried up during the Bill Smith era.

There is, of necessity, a lot of collaboration and delegation involved in running a major league franchise. That is perhaps most obvious in the field of player development.

No one person can handle the scouting chores for 50 rounds of the draft, no one person can scour the Dominican and Japan for free-agent talent, no one person can run five minor-league affiliates, no one person can tend to the details of teaching a high-school fireballer a change up or converting a college shortstop to second base.

General managers have to delegate all that. It doesn't matter if the GM is Bill Smith or Terry Ryan -- he isn't directly running the amateur draft in June. That's the scouting director's job. The GM has laid out for the scouting department what the organization needs, what their budget to sign players is, what the priorities are -- and then it's up to the scouts to find and draft and sign that talent, and it's up to the minor league staff to develop it.

Bill Smith inherited his player development team. It wasn't precisely the team Ryan had -- scouting director Mike Radcliff moved into a different post, and Deron Johnson became scouting director -- but there was a great deal of stability, and one can assume that as the 2007 transition was planned that Smith had some say in who landed in what jobs.

We do know that the Twins under Ryan were very good at filling holes and fixing problems by promoting from the minor leagues. And we also know that didn't work in 2011.

The Twins are widely viewed as short on talent in the upper reaches of the minors. It shows in the records at Triple-A Rochester, which has lost 90-plus games each of the last two years.

What's gone wrong?

There are three ways for teams to add young talent:

• Through the draft;
• Signing free agents (generally foreign players)
• Trading for minor leaguers

Draft
The Twins have drafted in the bottom half for about a decade. (There was one year in the '00s in which they drafted 14th of 30 teams). The prime picks are gone by the time they get to select; those that do slip to the bottom half of the first round generally have "signability" issues.

The Twins under Smith have actually been more willing than in the past to bust "slot" constraints to meet the price of draftees. They broke with the commissioner's office's recommended spending to sign Kyle Gibson in 2009 and all three of their top picks in 2011. Willingness to spend in the draft wasn't the issue during the Smith era.

Foreign markets
The Twins have long been big on signing players in what might be described as "underscouted" regions of the world. They were one of the first to establish a significant presence in Venezuela and Australia; they are the leaders in signing players out of Europe.

But they haven't gotten much out of the Aussie and European ventures, and, as noted during the Wilson Ramos kidnap drama, they (and most other organizations) have felt forced to pull back from Venezuela.

The Smith regime has established a presence in the Dominican Republic, a heavily scouted nation that produces a lot of talent, and Miguel Sano is a prime piece. But it will take a while for the Dominican venture to bear major league fruit.

Trades
This is an area in which the Twins have really fallen off. Ryan's reign was marked by a number of shrewd pick-ups of talent from the lower levels of other systems: David Ortiz, Jason Bartlett, Cristian Guzman, Joe Mays, Francisco Liriano. All were in A ball when the Twins acquired them; all became regulars.

Kevin Towers, then the general manager of the Padres and now with the Diamondbacks, once said that the problem with trading with Ryan was that "He knows your farm system better than you do."

For whatever reason -- luck or warier trading partners or a slippage in scouting -- that knack has left. The Twins haven't, to be sure, been in the business of trading veterans for kids very often in the past decade, and that's almost certainly part of why that aspect of player acquisition has dried up.