Ex-Twins' (mis)adventures in free agency

Spring training is less than a month away, and an impressive number of former Twins are either still trying to find teams or have just landed jobs (or, in some cases, opportunities for jobs).

The market is slim for players who had a big role in turning the Twins from a 90-plus win team to a 90-plus loss team, it would appear.

A quick rundown:

Delmon Young is only 27, but the promise has tarnished.

Delmon Young, last seen bopping postseason homers for Detroit, was nevertheless quickly cut loose by the Tigers. He signed Tuesday with Philadelphia for a piddling (in baseball terms) $750,000 plus more than $2 million in bonus clauses, some of which are apparently tied to making weight at six different weigh-ins over the course of the season.

It always amazes me when a major-league athlete in any sport has weight problems. It was one thing back in the day when players worked offseason jobs to make ends meet; today, when being a jock is a full-time, year-round job, getting out of shape to the extent that Young appeared to be last season signals a significant lack of self-discipline and/or interest in his job.

And he's paying for it. The guaranteed money is a mere $50,000 more than Drew Butera signed for. That speaks volumes to how little interest there was in Young.

The Phillies intend him to be their regular right fielder, but the contract structure suggests that he'd do well to avoid his usual lousy start. The Phils don't have a whole lot committed to him.

Kevin Slowey is
on the player union's
pension committee, but
he isn't on anybody's
40-man roster.

Kevin Slowey, last seen going on a minor league disabled list in the Indians organization and never returning, signed a minor-league deal Wednesday with Miami. The Marlins have lots of openings, but Slowey hasn't pitched much, or effectively, the past two years.

The bridges between the Twins and Slowey were well and truly burned in 2011, but I'd still rather have him than Kevin Correia — which speaks less to my diminishing faith in Slowey's ability to pitch than to my conviction that the Correia signing will be a disaster.

Francisco Liriano's deal with Pittsburgh finally became official this week, long after it was reported. The lefthander apparently fractured his right arm in a bathroom fall, and the two sides had to rework the deal to give the Pirates some protection should that injury for some reason be an issue. It shouldn't. The issue, as always with Liriano, will be throwing strikes.

Matt Capps remains unsigned. So does Jon Rauch, whose departure from the Twins predates their collapse. And, of course, Kyle Lohse is still out there for any team willing to pay the penalty, with agent Scott Boras supplying this awkward metaphor to excuse the length of time his client has been dangling:

It doesn't matter what time dinner is when you're the steak.

Well done, Mr. Boras.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Rauch trade

Jon Rauch in 2009. He was Baseball
America's minor league player of the year
in 2000, when he was in the
Chicago White Sox organization.

When: Aug. 28, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Jon Rauch from Arizona for RHP Kevin Mulvey
Value: Rauch conributed 1.9 WAR for Minnesota in 2009-10. He had 9 win shares for the Twins in 210 and 7 total in 2009. Mulvey contributed just 26 innings to Arizona with a WAR of -0.3 and was designated for assignment in September. He may be a free agent. Rauch spent 2011 with Toronto and singed last week with the New York Mets as a free agent.
Twins motivation: Bullpen depth

As with Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano, Rauch was a late-season addition that worked. Mulvey, a piece of the Johan Santana deal, has not panned out as a prospect. Rauch went 5-1 with five holds down the stretch in 2009, then racked up 21 saves in about a half season as closer in 2010 when Joe Nathan blew out his elbow.

The Twins let him go as a free agent after 2010, and he spent 2011 with Toronto, where he had 11 saves (and five blown saves) with an ERA of 4.85.

It is, in retrospect, interesting how far Mulvey had fallen by the time of the trade and has continued to fall. When the Twins acquired him (just before spring training 2008), he was considered a nearly-ready middle-of-the-rotation prospect. A season-plus later, he was dealt even up for a middle reliever -- not something one does with a good starting prospect. And last summer, Mulvey was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. I don't know if he's still in their system or if he's a free agent.

Free agent arbitration: Jon Rauch

Age in 2011: 33

Free agent classification: Type B.

Basic stats: 3-1, 21 saves, 3.12 ERA (Full stats here.)

2010 salary: $2.9 million

The Outsider's verdict: No

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Jon Rauch in his Twins
tenure: 8-2 with 21 saves
and a 2.82 ERA.

Rauch had two 2010 seasons: the part in which he had the glory job of the closer, and the part in which he was the No. 3 (or lower) set-up man. Once the Twins traded for Matt Capps, Rauch was not only demoted from the ninth inning role, he also ranked below Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain in the setup hierarchy, which is why he had just two holds.

If this were, say 10 years ago, it's very likely that somebody would be sufficiently impressed by the 21 in his saves column to make a big offer this winter. Oh boy, a proven closer! But today, most general managers recognize the fallacy in using a "decisions" stat to evaluate pitching talent.

Rauch has value as a set-up man, as bullpen depth. That is likely to be how the market treats him as a free agent. There's too much risk here that arbitration will value him as a "proven closer." The Twins will, and should, forego the reward of the draft pick and duck the risk that he'll accept arbitration.

Day Two of the Matt Capps era

Fourteen pitches for Matt Capps in his Twins debut Friday, 11 for strikes, and one hit allowed in a shutout inning.

Good enough. A couple more notes connected to the Twins' new closer:

* Nick Blackburn was demoted to make room on the roster for him. I had figured it would be Anthony Slama, for two reasons: Blackburn has the guaranteed seven-figure contract, and Blackburn was the most logical choice on the staff for long-relief duties.

Blackburn's demotion is in reality a positive sign for him. He's going to pitch in Rochester, not rot in the pen, and that gives him a chance to fix whatever it is that ails his pitching. I say a chance, because I continue to believe that his struggles are rooted in his level of ability.

* Jon Rauch declined to talk to reporters Friday about returning to a set-up role. He'd have several million reasons to be disappointed that the glory job is no longer his; a 35-40 save season would be a selling point for him as he enters free agency.

I don't mean to say that Rauch is pouting about it; I'm not close enough to tell. Ron Gardenhire painted a picture of a team-first response by Rauch, and that may be accurate — or it may be a bit of blue-sky thinking.

I'll be interested to see when Rauch next pitches in a close game. He was bypassed Friday, even as Jesse Crain was used for the third time in four days. Rauch's ERA in July is 5.40 but that's less than nine innings. He's had three straight scoreless outings — not clean outings, to be sure, but then Capps' debut wasn't 1-2-3 either.

Notes, quotes and comments

Twins win Thursday, raising their record to 7-3.

Seven and three against the Angels, White Sox and Red Sox. Man, I'd take 7-3 against the Royals.

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Ron Mahay, who is in the running to be the last "replacement player" from the 1993-94 strike, is back, with Alex Burnett returning to the minors.

This gives the Twins three lefties in the pen. Mahay is clearly a LOOGY. Jose Mijares is talented enough to be more than a LOOGY, but Ron Gardenhire seems more comfortable spotting him against lefties, and so far this spring Mijares hasn't even done that well. And Brian Duensing is nominally the long man, but has done some LOOGY duty as well.

I assume that when Clay Condrey is deemed ready to be activated, he'll assume Duensing's long-man role, with Duensing going back to Triple A to stretch his arm out and be ready to step into the rotation if (when) needed.

For now, at least, Gardenhire has options while pitching coach Rick Anderson tries to get Mijares straightened out.

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Jayson Stark of ESPN.com had some Twins items worthy of contemplation in Thursday's Rumblings and Grumblings:

• Jon Rauch hasn't convinced scouts that he's a top-grade closer
• Catching prospect Wilson Ramos is unlikely to be traded
• Rauch, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain are all to be free agents after this season, suggesting that the Twins will have to rebuild their bullpen for 2011.

I agree with the first evaluation, which leads me to question the wisdom of the second one. Not that I'm saying they should trade Ramos for another B-grade closer. But he shouldn't be in the way of getting a high-end guy for the bullpen.

Wins are wins, but ...

When I first contemplated the Twins schedule, one of the first things I noticed — after "when do they have their first home game?" — was the rigor of the initial series.

Four games in Anaheim. Three games in Chicago. Then home to face the Red Sox. Three tough opponents and a ridiculous travel schedule, with that late West Coast game on Thursday forcing an overnight flight to Chicago.

I figured 5-5 would be acceptable for that 10-game stretch; 6-4 or 7-3 would make me almost giddy.

They're 5-1 now.

Now, the "even keel" approach to the long season holds that such streaks come and go. You're never as good as you look during a winning streak, never as bad as you look when on a losing streak.

And in the interest of tamping down giddiness — mine, at least, but maybe yours as well — a few things to keep an eye on.

Pat Neshek. Ron Gardenhire voiced concern near the end of spring training about using Neshek on consecutive days. Maybe we saw why this week.

Thursday: Neshek enters in the sixth inning with two on with a 3-1 lead. He faces two men, falls behind each 1-0, gets each on the second pitch. Stressful situation, few pitches.

Friday: Neshek enters a tied game in the seventh to start the inning. He got two called strikes, then two fouls — and then the batter, Alexei Ramirez, lashed a double down the third base line. Gardenhire pulled him immediately.

Francisco Liriano. Five walks in six innings is nobody's idea of command of the fastball.

Jon Rauch. Yes, he's four-for-four in save conversions. Remember LaTroy Hawkins' season (2001) as closer? He opened with a long string of converted saves but really wasn't pitching that well. He finished the season with 28 saves, 9 blown saves and an ERA pushing 6.

Rauch has gotten the job done — a win's a win, an out's an out — but he's been helped by a busted hit-and-run in one game, saved by sparkling defensive plays in two others.

These are all small sample sizes. But they provide some reason to discount the Twins' .833 winning percentage — itself evidence of small sample size. Nobody's that good.

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Poll results: A sizable plurality of the 45 respondents predict Kevin Slowey will lead the Twins in win this year. Slowey had 18 votes (40 percent). Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn had nine each (20 percent), Liriano 5 (11 percent) and Carl Pavano 4 (8 percent.)

Closing the committee

The Twins' planned closer by committee never convened.

On Friday, manager Ron Gardenhire anointed Jon Rauch (left) as his ninth-inning go-to-guy.

How long the tattooed one will keep the position is anybody's guess. Mine is "not long." I predict the Twins will trade for relief help before April is out.

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On a somewhat related note, a relative novice to the world of Twins blogging, one Adam Beck, recently dropped me an e-mail. He is wise enough to speak respectfully of my work and foolish enough to seek my advice about his blog. (Be careful of what you wish for, young man!)

He also stuck a comment onto my previous post, on the "minor" stories of spring training, about the wisdom of trading prime catching prospect Wilson Ramos for a closer:

My question to you, and to everybody else out there is, 'would you/should you trade Ramos, one of the organization's best positional prospects, for a closer? Anthony Slama is waiting in the minors with a lot of closer experience under his belt, and most baseball experts view a closer as created, not born.' Thoughts?

Two points:

1) Minor league closers are seldom prospects, much less prospective closers. In general, good relief pitchers were starters in the minors. Slama has a chance to be an exception to that rule, but with a walk rate last year of more than 4 per nine innings, he's NOT going to be a closer in the bigs.

If there's a minor leaguer in the Twins system who projects as a closer, it's Carlos Gutierrez, who is currently being used as a starter. As a starter, he gets more innings, thus gets more experience. There's a big difference in the learning curve for a pitcher getting 120 innings as compared to one getting 40 innings.

2) Would I trade Ramos for somebody to fill the closer role? Depends on who that closer is. I wouldn't move him for the likes of Kerry Wood or Trevor Hoffmann or anybody else on their way out. If the Royals would do Joakim Sora for him, absolutely, but I don't expect that to be on anybody's agenda.

In truth, I'd probably be less inclined to trade Ramos for an "established" closer than for somebody who hasn't had the job but has the talent to take it. Daniel Bard of the Red Sox, for example. And even there, the Twins might want more than a one-for-one swap.

A more likely prospect to trade away for somebody along the lines of the Padres' Heath Bell is Ben Revere. If Revere turns into the player the Twins think he will become, he'll be Denard Span. The Twins have one of him already — and a bunch more outfielders in the pipeline.

Migrating from 'Zona to Midwest

In 2007, the Arizona Diamondbacks won 90 games. Nobody in the National League won more. Still, they really weren't that good — their runs scored/runs allowed ratio suggests they "should" have gone 79-83.

In 2008 the D'backs were 20-8 at the end of April and then faded slowly away. One of their problems was the bullpen. They opened with Brandon Lyon closing; he had 26 saves but a 4.70 ERA, and manager Bob Melvin switched late to Chad Qualls. Whoever wasn't closing split the primary set-up chores with Tony Pena. Juan Cruz put together impressive stats in low-leverage relief. And they made a midseason deal for Jon Rauch, who helped bury the D'backs — 0-6 with a 6.56 ERA.

A year later, only Qualls is still there (and establishing himself, quietly, as a reliable closer). The rest of them are in the AL Central.

*Cruz — who walked home a run Friday night — is pitching poorly for Kansas City; the Twins were indeed wise to pass on him in the free agent market.

*Lyon (above) is arguably the most effective piece in the Detroit bullpen.

*Pena is essentially doing for the White Sox what he did for the Snakes — eating middle innings with an ERA around 4.30; he remains more talent than results.

*Rauch, as you probably know, is helping the Twins in the late drive.

Makes me wonder how the Indians didn't wind up with Brandon Medders, who is having a pretty good season with the Giants.

Old McDonald hit a bomb

Tragic number as of Wednesday morning: 19.

Twins and Tigers both had three run leads in the middle innings behind rookie starters, and both saw their middle relief implode.

In the Twins case, it was newcomer Jon Rauch (above), who entered with the bases loaded and no outs. He not only allowed all three inherited runners to score, he gave up three of his own. Which really ruins his Minnesota ERA (from 0.00 to 5.78), not that 4 2/3 innings is significant.

Unlike most middle relief meltdowns under Ron Gardenhire, this was strictly a one-pitcher affair. But Rauch faced no left-handed hitters; Cito Gaston loaded the lineup with right-handers against Brain Duensing and stuck with them against Rauch. That meant Gardenhire didn't have his usual opportunities to shuffle in a LOOGY and work back to a righty.

Two other points:

* Any team that gives up three hits, including a home run, to John McDonald deserves to lose.

* Last Friday I posted a piece comparing Jose Morales and Mike Redmond. Since then Morales has started once; the Twins won. And Redmond has started once; the Twins lost.

Twins add Jon Rauch

The Twins on Friday afternoon traded the ever-popular player to be named later to Arizona for Jon Rauch, a right-handed reliever who is the tallest player in major league history (he's 6-foot-11) and a decent middle man. 

That's something the Twins have needed for the past two years. It's not that we should expect him to take over eighth inning duties from Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares, but that he'll keep them out of the seventh or sixth innings.  

The Twins also shipped minor-leaguer Yohan Pino to Cleveland as the PNL in the Carl Pavano trade. He had a pretty decent season this year, split between Double A and Triple A, pitching mostly in relief, but he was repeating Double A and is said to have a mediocre fast ball. Lack of velocity didn't keep him from boosting his K rate this year. 

 I like Pino's stats, but the Twins really needed an established starter, and Pino isn't a really prime prospect.