Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Scott Diamond

Scott Diamond in 2011: 1-5, 5.08 in
Minnesota, 4-14, 55.5 in Rochester.

When: Dec. 9, 2010 and March 28, 2011
What: The Twins selected left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Atlanta Braves system in the Rule V draft on the first date, traded right-handed pitcher Billy Bullock for his rights on the second date.
Value: Bullock spent 2011 in the minors, mostly in Double A with a one-inning taste of Triple A. Diamond spent most of 2011 in Triple A, but made seven starts for Minnesota in the second half of the season. Diamond earned one win share and 0.1 WAR.
Twins motivation: Discerning that is pretty much the point of this post.

The acquisition of Scott Diamond doesn't currently fit my criteria as a major deal. Yet it's getting the full treatment here because:

• It was complex;
• It involves a second-round draft pick (Bullock);
• It could become significant, if Diamond emerges as a member of the starting rotation or Bullock becomes a standout reliever;
• It says something about the scarcity of left-handed pitching;
• I like Diamond for non-objective reasons; and
• It's my blog and you can't stop me.

Diamond appeared a highly sensible Rule V pick when the Twins plucked him. But he got only limited exposure in exhibition play and didn't display the command his scouting reports said he had. He didn't force his way onto the 25-man roster, and Rule V guys have to be on the active roster or returned whence they came.

The Twins didn't want to give him up, and they surrendered 2009 second-rounder Bullock to get Diamond's unfettered rights and then sent the lefty to Triple A.

This deal was not well-received in the Twins blog community. And considering the rate in subsequent months with which the Twins collecting potential power arms for relief work (Lester Oliveros, Jeff Gray, Esmerling Vasquez ...) since dealing the hard-throwing Bullock, it remains a curious decision.

A good part of what happened here, I have become convinced, is that the Twins found themselves bereft of left-handed starters in the upper minors. Left-handed pitching is inherently valuable -- it's why you so often hear the phrase "left-handed and breathing" used to explain why marginal hurlers get so many chances -- and the Twins were willing to risk overpaying for a southpaw for the Rochester rotation who might also serve as a Plan C for the major league rotation.

And besides, hard-throwing bullpen prospects aren't all that hard to come by. Hard-throwers with command, that's another thing.

Bullock didn't have a particularly great season in the Atlanta organization. He did pile up the strikeouts (more than 12 Ks per nine innings), but he also piled up the walks (more than six walks per nine innings). Diamond didn't shine in 2011 either, and in the majors displayed a Kevin Slowey-like tendency to pitch acceptably well for four or five innings before crumbling.

But judging a starter on his first seven major league starts is a fool's game. Greg Maddux had an ERA above 5 in his first full season in a big league rotation.

I don't expect either Bullock or Diamond to open 2012 with their respective parent club. I don't know that either is all that likely to grow into a key performer in the majors. Bullock is too wild; Diamond's stuff is marginal.

Never mind the Bullock ...

It's been more than 40 hours since the Billy Bullock-Scott Diamond trade went down, and I'm still recovering from the surprise and absorbing the implications.

Bullock and Diamond are both pitchers, and there the similarities essentially end.

• Bullock is right-handed,  Diamond a southpaw.
• Bullock has one pitch, the fastball; Diamond has a legitimate repertoire.
• Bullock has trouble throwing strikes; Diamond has a good control record
• Bullock has a power arm; Diamond throws harder than you or me, but may be a bit below major league average.
• Bullock was a second-round draft pick; Diamond was signed as an undrafted free agent.
• Bullock is strictly a reliever; Diamond has been a competent (or better) starter as he climbed the Braves ladder.
• Because of the reliever/starter difference, Diamond has thrown more innings in any of his three professional seasons than Bullock has in his entire pro career.

Pretty much everybody outside the Twins organization sees Bullock as the better prospect. Baseball America listed Bullock as the Twins 15th best prospect, Diamond at No. 29. John Sickles doesn't list them in any specific order, but he gave Bullock a B- grade, Diamond a C+. Seth Stohs had Bullock at No. 23, Diamond at No. 28. Aaron Gleeman had the widest disparity: Bullock at No. 10, Scott Diamond at 36.

Obviously, the Twins decided they'd rather have Diamond than Bullock.

Now, a necessary caveat: I don't know what the Twins are specifically basing that decision on. I have some observations and interpretations.

• The Twins have had Bullock in their system for a bit less than two years and they had Diamond in camp all spring. They know more about these two than any outsider does.
• No organization does better at teaching fastball command than the Twins. But Bullock's walk rates have gotten worse at each step up the ladder. 
• Diamond increases by infinity the number of left-handed starter candidates in the Twins upper minors. They had none before this deal. 

If the Twins had concluded that Bullock was never going to locate his fastball and/or develop a quality secondary pitch, trading him is a lot more explicable than it appears off his track record. If the Twins had concluded that they really need a left-handed prospect at the upper levels, Diamond's value to them was increased.

The Twins are generally as patient as anybody with pitchers.  They haven't always been right on the pitchers they've kept or acquired, but few of the ones they've discarded in the past decade or so truly haunt them.

A high-priced Diamond

The Twins can now
option Scott Diamond
to the minor leagues.

Dick Bremer said during today's broadcast that the Twins had traded Billy Bullock for the rights to Scott Diamond. (Addendum: Here's the Twins news release.)

That strikes me as a high price. Bullock was Minnesota's 2nd round pick in 2009, a hard-throwing reliever out of the University of Florida, and he had already reached Double-A. He's had excellent strikeout rates coupled with high walk rates in the minors.

Maybe the Twins had concluded that he simply isn't going to throw enough strikes, but Bullock was one of the better power arms in their system, and off what I know of the two, Bullock has a much higher ceiling than Diamond.

I had hoped the Twins could retain Diamond. I'm not sure he's worth Bullock.

Twins win (Tuesday night) and draft Gibson

10-5, Twins, despite a lousy mop-up job in the ninth inning, when Scott Baker, Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares wouldn't or couldn't throw strikes and Alexi Casilla couldn't pick up a ground ball. Mijares in particular — six strikes, nine balls.

Don't let the box score line fool you: Delmon Young had an RBI single and an RBI double, but the single didn't leave the infield and the double — just his third extra base hit of the season — was a soft-hit blooper down the right field line. In other words, he wasn't stinging the ball.

Scott Baker had his third quality start in his last four outings, but two of them — this one and his previous start against Cleveland — came against teams that are having trouble scoring runs.

Now, on to the first day of the Twins draft: The pitcher in the picture is Kyle Gibson of Missouri. The Twins landed him with the 22nd pick after he dropped out of the Top 10 — possibly top five — with what is reported to be a stress fracture in his forearm.

Baseball America had regarded him as the "safest" pick among pitchers, including the much-hyped Stephen Strasburg: He relies on two-seam fastballs rather than four-seamers, usually pitching at 88-91 mph with good sink and tailing action, though he can reach back for 94 mph when needed. He has two of the better secondary pitches in the draft, a crisp 82-85 mph slider and a deceptive changeup with fade that can generate swings and misses.

Then came a sudden loss of velocity and the report on Monday of a stress fracture. He may not pitch again this summer, but considering his collegiate workload, that might have been the plan anyway. Certainly without the injury, he wouldn't have made it to the Twins.

The Twins followed this pick with three more collegiate pitchers: LHP Matt Bashore of Indiana with the supplemental pick for losing Dennys Reyes; RHP Billy Bullock of Florida in the second round; and RHP Ben Tootle of Jacksonville State. All three are said to have power arms, particularly Bullock and Tootle, and fastball velocity is something the organization was out to emphasize after a few years of drafting toolsy outfielders and command specialists early.

Warning, however: Gibson, Bashore and Tootle all slipped because of injury/illness concerns.

Bullock was most successful in college out of the bullpen, and Tootle is seen as a relief pitcher also.

The draft continues today.