Spring training trip Day 4: Overview

Deolis Guerra fires a pitch in the ninth inning Sunday.

Saturday the Twins played on the other side of Florida (against the Mets); for my wife and me, it was Sanibel Day. No baseball; we spent the day on the islands of Sanibel and Captiva.

But we were back to baseball on Sunday, watching the Twins beat a rag-tag subset of the Miami Marlins. Earlier this month I took note in the Monday print column of the Marlins' complaints when the Red Sox sent a squad of unknowns to play the Fish, and observed:

The Marlins will be the visitors for one of the upcoming games I see in Fort Myers. 

I do not expect to see Giancarlo Stanton or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the two established position players on the Miami roster.

As it happened, the bulk of the Marlins' "names" were on a junket with the Yankees to Panama in some sort of Mariano Rivera tribute tour.

Former Twins pitcher Kevin Slowey started the Fort Myers game for Miami and went five innings, allowing two runs. Slowey spent last year with the Marlins and did fairly well, but was moved out of the rotation in midseason and later shut down after just 92 innings. He re-signed with them, but as a minor leaguer with the proverbial invite. I'd still love to see him make the Twins look foolish for running him off, but that seems unlikely.

For the Twins, it was Ricky Nolasco for five innings of baserunners, ground balls and two runs. The Twins turned two double plays behind him (keystone combo of Eduardo Escobar at short and Brian Dozier at second).

After Nolasco came Caleb Thielbar, Glen Perkins and Jared Burton, each of whom mowed through the Marlins lineup. Then came the guy I was most curious to see, Deolis Guerra.

Guerra is the last piece of the Johan Santana trade left with the Twins. A big right-hander, he missed most of last year after a blood clot was found in his right shoulder while he was pitching for his native Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic. Like Slowey, he's a non-roster guy.

Guerra's changeup has been touted in the past, and he used it quite a bit in the ninth inning. Fastballs were generally in the low 90s, topping out (this according to the stadium scoreboard) at 93. His change was in the upper 70s, and he struck out two Marlins with it.

Guerra offers the same style of pitching as Burton. It comes at a lower price. I suggested last week that the Twins might seek to move Burton to make room for Guerra. What I saw Sunday certainly did not discourage that notion.

Trimming the non-roster guys and other notes

Shairon Martis, who
is still playing in the
World Baseball Classic
for the Netherlands,
was one of seven
players reassigned
Sunday to minor
league camp.

The Twins bounced seven non-roster invitees from major league camp Sunday.

Only two of the seven — pitcher Deolis Guerra and first baseman Chris Colabello — ever had even dark horse status for making the 25-man roster, so Sunday's moves simply thinned the crowd from the clubhouse. The contenders for major league duty in April were essentially unaffected.

Guerra's chances of making the roster, unlikely to begin with, vanished when he was found to have a blood clot in his pitching shoulder. For a while he was in intensive care, a sign of how serious such a clot is. On Friday he had a rib removed to free up space for the artery involved, and he should be ready to pitch again sometime this summer.

As I said when the diagnosis was announced: It's a serious, even life-threatening, condition, if unchecked, and now that it's been caught, it's not career-threatening. That seems an odd juxtaposition, but it's nevertheless true.

Colabello's reassignment does narrow the field a bit for the bench hitter job. The primary candidates for that job — assuming it exists when the Opening Day roster is set — now in camp would appear to be first baseman/catcher Jeff Clement and outfielders Brandon Boggs and Wilkin Ramirez, all non-roster guys.

I'm not sure any of them are better fits for the pinch-hitting/backup DH role than Colabello, which leads me to suspect that the front office is going to be eying the waiver wire hard for a hitter these next two weeks.

---

Scott Diamond is to make his first game appearance of the spring today in a minor league game, and he is apparently on track for a mid-April return to the rotation — which, by implication, means he figures to open the year on the disabled list.

Ditto Anthony Swarzak, whose marginal candidacy for a rotation job cracked with his ribs a few weeks ago. Ron Gardenhire was quoted over the weekend as saying his long man had to be stretched out to five innings, and there isn't time for Swarzak to do that before the April 1 opener.

Five innings? That's a typical start for Sam Deduno or Kevin Correia. I doubt Gardy's ever used a reliever for five innings.

DLing Diamond and Swarzak does figure to postpone a couple of roster decisions. Swarzak is among a handful of use-or-lose guys in the bullpen field (along with Tim Wood, Ryan Pressly and Josh Roenicke) who would have to clear waivers to be kept in the minors.

The Twins and the WBC

J.O. Berrios —
or is it Jose?

Today's print column was a general look at the World Baseball Classic, but it hardly exhausts the topic.

The Twins had 13 players — from former MVPs to teenagers — in the WBC. No organization provided more participants. Here's a few comments:

* How raw is J.O. Berrios? So raw there's no consensus on what he's to be called. The Star Tribune is going with Jose on first reference; Baseball America uses the initials; Baseball Reference at one point used the initials and now has gone with the first name. So far I've gone with the initials.

Berrios (and fellow Puerto Rican Eddie Rosario) was in the Twins major-league camp before the WBC only because of the event; both prospects took advantage of the opportunity to catch the attention, and imagination, of the big-leauge staff. 

Rosario got a lot of playing time in the early exhibitions, Berrios did not. But Berrios pitched Sunday in relief against the Dominican Republic in a game aired by ESPN. (The broadcast was in Spanish, which means I understood only occasional words of the commentary, such as beisbol; this was a vast improvement over the likes of Rick Sutcliffe and John Kruk.) 

Deolis Guerra pitches for
his homeland.

Berrios had a rough outing — two runs, both earned, in 1.2 innings, and he was charged with the loss — but it was still easy to be impressed. The kid (still only 18) blew a high fastball past Robinson Cano for strike three. He throws from a lower arm angle than I had expected to see, and the motion looks easy.

He needs, obviously, experience and good health. That's not an easy combination to achieve. But he can be a good one.  

* Deolis Guerra was pitching for Venezuela but left in mid-round with what was initially described as a pectoral injury. It turned out to be a blood clot in his shoulder. He's to have part of a rib removed to free up space.

This was a potentially serious development, but since it's been caught it's not a career-threatening one. There's no reason Guerra shouldn't be able to pitch again. Still, it's a blow; most of this season is lost for him.

It seems like we've been waiting for him forever; he was the high-ceiling piece of the Johan Santana trade, made just before spring training in 2008. He'll never be the stud starter envisioned at the time, but he's still only 23.

* It's easy to criticize the game strategy Team USA manager Joe Torre employed in the first round. 

Sam Deduno struck out five and walked
none in his start against Spain.

The Americans attempted four sacrifice bunts Sunday against Canada. Now, I love the bunting game, but I love it in its place. Torre has a lineup filled with legitimate All-Stars, and — no offense to the Team Canada pitchers — they're facing moundsmen of much lesser accomplishment. Giving away outs with guys like Adam Jones and Ben Zobrist is just silly.

But in another light, Torre is in a unique situation. He's got a roster of All-Stars, players who left their jobs to play for this team, and none of them came to park their butts on the bench. Torre made a point of getting everybody some playing time in the pool games. Ego massage comes with the territory, and perhaps all the bunting is a way of reminding them that the ego massage only goes so far. 

*Sam Deduno was a late addition to the Dominican roster, and when he opted to pitch in the WBC I saw some muttering from the metro media that he was hurting his chances of making the Twins rotation and wasn't likely to pitch for D.R. anyway.

He started the second game of pool play for the Dominican — four shutout innings against Spain for the win. Yeah, it was Spain, the weak sister of the San Juan pool (Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Spain), but Deduno did pitch. 

And, realistically, he wasn't making the Twins rotation out of camp even had he stayed. Do the math: There's Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia, all of whom will either be in the rotation or on the DL. Then there's the contenders on the 40-man roster — Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries, Liam Hendriks — all of whom rank ahead of Deduno. 

Two Twins who starred in winter ball

Deolis Guerra is the
sole remaining piece
from the Johan
Santana trade.

Baseball America has posted (subscribers only) a piece entitled "Ten Players Who Helped Their Stock in Winter Ball." Two of the 10 are Twins.

Eddie Rosario is No. 2 on the BA list (behind Cardinals mega-prospect Oscar Tavaras). BA notes that Rosario  hit .338/.386./.496 in 133 at bats for Mayaguez in his native Puerto Rico, second in the league in batting average and fourth in slugging percentage.

The concluding sentence:

Scouts have questions about whether Rosario has the defensive chops to play an up-the-middle position -- he played mostly right field in Puerto Rico -- but his hit tool is impressive.

Deolis Guerra was No. 10. The reliever (who lost his spot on the 40-man roster this winter but is a spring training invitee) struck out 31 while walking five in 25 innings for Navegantes in the Venezuelan League. A bad final outing bumped his ERA up to 3.81.

The concluding sentence:

The ceiling here is limited, but Guerra might not be a total bust after all.

I don't know that their good winter seasons change much for either. Rosario is still going to open 2013 in High A ball, and the Twins are still going to try to make him a second baseman. I expected Guerra to reach the majors last year, but he missed a good part of the season with injury. Now he's got more hurdles in his way, and even a strong spring training probably isn't going to get him on the Opening Day roster.

Clearing room on the 40-man roster (updated)

Thomas Field's 2012 Topps card.

Last week, the Twins had 40 players on their roster. After a week of subtraction, they're now down to 37 36.

Wednesday: IF Thomas Field was lost on waivers to Anaheim
Thursday: CF Denard Span was traded to Washington; Alex Meyer, the pitcher they got back, isn't on the 40-man roster and probably won't be put on the 40 until he's put on the 25-man active roster.
Friday: RHP Deolis Guerra was outrighted to Rochester; RHP Lester Oliveros was nontendered.

The Span trade, of course, has gotten plenty of commentary, here and elsewhere. The other moves, not so much.

The Twins claimed Field on waivers from Colorado early in November. As I predicted when the Twins acquired him, the Twins tried to slip him through waivers themselves. On Wednesday we learned that Anaheim claimed him. So he's gone.

Deolis Guerra has
been in the Twins
organization since
2008, but is only 23.

The Twins probably picked Field up with the intent of making him the shortstop at Rochester. Now the organization has a bit of a hole to plug there. Last year the Red Wings used Brian Dozier or Pedro Florimon at short (Dozier to open and close the season, Florimon while Dozier was in Minnesota), with Tsuyoshi Nishioka at second base. Nishi won't be back, of course, and Dozier, Florimon and Eduardo Escobar are all in the mix for jobs at the big league level. I expect another infield addition in the Twins future.

Guerra, the last remaining piece from the Johan Santana trade, cleared waivers, which means nobody else wanted to give him a spot on their 40-man roster. He remains in the organization and will be in major league camp this spring. He was out of options anyway, so had he not cleared waivers now and didn't make the team the Twins would have had to waive him in the spring. Guerra had had a good start to his 2012 season and seemed likely to get a call-up, but tailed off and missed a good bit of time to injury.

Oliveros' nontender took me by surprise. Friday's deadline for making "qualifying offers" generally focuses on the arbitration-eligible players -- in the Twins case, Drew Butera, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing. All three were retained. Oliveros, a hard-thrower acquired in 2011's Delmon Young trade, will miss 2013 after having Tommy John surgery, and the Twins apparently decided it wasn't worth keeping him on the 40-man roster. (Update: The Twins have re-signed him to a minor league deal.)

All this frees up plenty of space for either free agent signings or activity in the Rule V draft. The word from Twins execs after the Span trade was that their focus at the winter meetings next week would be on talking to agents rather than trades, so making room was necessary.

The first cuts (are the shallowest)

Outfield prospect
Oswaldo Arcia was
optioned to High-A
Fort Myers rather
than Triple-A
Rochester, as the
other 40-man roster
demotees were.

The Twins on Thursday sent nine players to their minor-league camp. Add in the earlier season-ending injury to Joel Zumaya, and the major-league camp is down to 57 players -- a mere 32 more cuts to come.

The song says the first cut is the deepest, but that's not the case here. The deeper cuts are still to come.

Most of the Thursday cuts were pretty routine. Three were non-roster guys, one of whom (Steve Pearce) is out for the coming week anyway, another of whom (Danny Rams) is a catcher not needed with fewer pitchers in camp, and a third (Aaron Thompson) who is probably going to start in the minors and needs to be stretched out.

LaVelle Neal called the quick demotion of Scott Diamond a surprise. I don't see it that way. Diamond, like Thompson, figures to be a starter at Triple A. He had little chance to make the major league club --  the five projected starters, plus Anthony Swarzak, Matt Maloney, Terry Doyle and Liam Hendriks, are all ahead of him in the starter/long man pecking order as I see it.

That Darin Mastroanni
was among the first cuts
suggests that the
Twins are confident
that Denard Span
is sound.

I'm more surprised that Hendriks wasn't among the cuts. He too will be a starter, probably at Rochester, and needs the innings. Obviously they figure they can still get him the innings he needs for now.

What did come as a surprise were the demotions of Lester Oliveros and Deolis Guerra. Those two, as I saw it, entered camp as bona fide bullpen candidates. Instead, they're the first ones out.

Which hardly dooms their chances for Minnesota. Last spring Alex Burnett was among the first cuts. He was the first guy recalled once the season began stuck the rest of the way.

So the bullpen field thins a bit. We still can't declare anybody a clear favorite for one of the openings, however. 

An ugly first look

Man, I hope we don't see a lot of this.

Fox Sports North televised Monday night's spring training tilt on their alternate channel. I don't know how many viewers found it, but I'm pretty sure not many stuck with it as long as I did.

Hey, it was baseball. Bad baseball, but still baseball.

A few comments, most -- but not all -- of which come with the "it's the fourth game of spring training, lets not read too much into it:" caveat: 

Jason Marquis was brutal. Utterly no command; he couldn't get out of the second inning. Walked three, threw three wild pitches and could easily have had a fourth. The Twins also committed two errors behind him.

Terry Ryan described Marquis as a strike thrower when the veteran signed, but that's simply not part of Marquis' record. I don't expect him to be great, and I don't expect him to be this out of control.

Deolis Guerra gave up five runs in his outing. Guerra is one of a handful of bullpen candidates I said a few days ago I was particularly interested in. Two of them, Guerra and Jason Bulger, have already been embarrassed by the Red Sox.

Bert Blyleven's explanation of Guerra's issues differed somewhat from what I've seen for years from Baseball America. BA has said that Guerra, who has a power pitcher's frame, shies away from using his fastball. (Supposedly his strong second half last season after his move to the bullpen corresponded with more use of his fastball.) Blyleven says Guerra's inconsistent with his "dominant" fast ball.

He didn't look like much of anything Monday.

Ryan Doumit played left field ... poorly. His "handling" of the leadoff double in the second inning was reminiscent of Delmon Young.

Joe Mauer had two hits. What a pretty swing. That doesn't change, spring training or no.

More from BA on Twins prospects

The move to the
bullpen agreed with
Deolis Guerra.

Baseball America followed up its Top 10 Twins prospects list with a chat on Friday for subscribers.

A few highlights from John Manuel, the BA co-editor who does the Twins list:

• Alex Wimmers' control problems last spring were rooted in a lack of conditioning. Another high draft pick whose conditioning is an issue is Hudson Boyd, who weighed nearly 280 pounds when he arrived at instructionals. He's supposedly back under 250 now.
• Manuel last year thought the Twins should give up on Deolis Guerra. Now he sees Guerra as just shy of Top 10 status and expects Guerra to pitch in the Twins bullpen this year. 
• If Guerra's stock is up, Jorge Polanco and Angel Morales are down.
• Manuel defends the Twins on their shortage of power arms. The Twins have drafted power arms, he notes, but they've gotten hurt or haven't developed. 
• Manuel is much higher on Joe Benson than on Ben Revere. 
• David Bromberg is not in BA's Top 30 Twins prospects.
• Travis Harrison, drafted as a third baseman, is likely to wind up at first base. Manuel thinks Miguel Sano can stick at third.
• Manuel expects shortstop Niko Goodrum to repeat in the Appy League. 

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Santana trade

Johan Santana won two Cy Young awards
while with the Twins (2004 and 2006). He now
gets $25 million a year from the Mets and did
not pitch in 2011.

When: Feb. 2, 2008
What: LHS Johan Santana to the New York Mets for CF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Value: Santana has earned 49 win shares and 14.4 WAR since the trade. Gomez has 30 WS, 4.1 WAR; Humber 13 WS and 3.4 WAR; Mulvey 0 and -0.5. Guerra has not reached the majors.
Twins motivation: Avoiding Santana's walk year; secondary motivations, trimming payroll, adding an outfielder.

Underlying the decision to trade Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason was the minor circus that accompanied Torii Hunter during his 2007 walk year. It seemed to team management that every road trip brought the same story: Where will Hunter play next? And Hunter was only too willing to fuel the speculation.

Correctly or not, Ron Gardenhire and Co. felt that was a factor in the team's decline in 2007. When, in the immediate wake of that disappointing season, Santana indicated that he was not likely to re-sign with the Twins, the brass felt it best to trade him immediately.

The Twins say
Deolis Guerra was
effective after being
moved to the bullpen
last season in
Double A.

It's an arguable decision. The Twins could have kept Santana for 2008, offered him arbitration and pocketed a pair of draft picks when he left. On the other hand, the media circus that accompanied the winter meetings that offseason, when there was a fresh rumor every few hours, suggests that the issue of Santana's future would have dominated the 2008 season.

Just going off the results, however, hanging on to Santana for 2008 might have worked better for Minnesota. Gomez never fully earned Gardenhire's confidence and ultimately lost his starting spot in the outfield to Denard Span. Humber washed out with the Twins and then Kansas City before emerging last season as a respectable starter for the White Sox. Mulvey's career appears to have stalled. Only Guerra remains in the Twins system, and he looks less like a useful piece each year.

Theoretically, the four players the Twins got in the Santana trade were more than the equivalent of a (low) first round pick and a sandwich pic. It simply didn't turn out that way.

Gomez and Mulvey were more valuable to the Twins in terms of what they got in future trades than for what they did in Minnesota.

Bullpen candidate profile: Deolis Guerra

Delois Guerra had a
6.36 ERA in more
than 127 innings
in Double A and
Triple A in 2010.

Pitcher: Deolis Guerra
Throws: Right
Age: Turns 22 in April
Status: 40-man roster, two options left.
Chance of making team: Not gonna happen

Deolis Guerra has two things going for him: He's still quite young -- he pitched in Triple A at age 21 -- and he is the sole direct acquisition left from the Johan Santana trade.

On the other hand, he hasn't been effective on any level since the Twins acquired him (his lowest ERA in the Minnesota system is 4.69 in less than 100 innings at Fort Myers in 2009; it was his third season in High A ball).

This from John Manuel in a Baseball America chat (subscribers only) back in November about Guerra:

That is one frustrating guy. Think about how the Twins must feel about it ... a 6-foot-5 guy with a power frame who won't pitch off his fastball. Yuck.

My guess is that the Twins won't discard Guerra until they absolutely have to, and he won't run out of options until after 2012. They've got two more years in which to find the pitcher in the talent. If they need a 40-man roster spot this year, they'll find somebody else to cut loose.

Three minor league pitchers

The Twins did considerable roster shuffling throughout the organization this week. If you want the details, I'll refer you to LeVelle Neal and Seth Strohs.

I'm struck by three pitchers:

Kyle Gibson, last year's first round pick, pitched poorly in the season opener at High-A Fort Myers, then grabbed the Florida State League by the windpipe until it turned blue. He'll next pitch for Double-A New Britain.

Gibson's a fast tracker, and the Twins are a slow track organization. Mike Leake, also a first-round collegiate pitcher last summer, opened this season in the Cincinnati rotation; Stephen Strasberg, last year's version of the Greatest Pitching Prospect Ever, opened in Double A, has moved up to Triple A, and if such financial issues as arbitration eligibility weren't a factor would have been in the Washington rotation in April.

One difference, of course, is that Gibson works for a team without an obvious hole in the starting rotation. The Twins don't need to push him along. He'll get here soon enough.

Deolis Guerra (photo above) — the one original piece of the Johan Santana trade still in the system — is now in Triple A. His luster dimmed after he joined the Twins organization — he repeated High A in 2008 and pitched worse than in 2007, opened 2009 in High A again and escaped to Double A in midseason with marginal statisical improvement.

He's been quite effective in New Britain this spring, especially in the strike-throwing department (four walks in 29-plus innings). And he's still just 21 — barely.

Gibson's probably the better prospect, but Guerra (who's on the 40-man roster) might beat him to the majors. Again, however, there's no rush.

Shooter Hunt is the other pitcher I wanted to mention, even though he didn't get promoted.

Hunt was a supplemental-round pick in 2008, the 31st overall pick, out of Tulane. The word was great stuff and uncertain command — which made him unusual for the Twins, who love "pitchability" and strikes more than sheer stuff.

He signed fast and ripped through four starts in the Appy League — 19 innings, six walks, 34 strikeouts, 0.47 ERA — and up he went to Low-A Beloit.

Where "the Thing" grabbed him. It hasn't been pretty: 27 walks in 31.1 innings in Beloit (2008), 33 walks in 17.2 innings in Beloit (2009), 25 walks in 15 innings in High Rookie Fort Myers (2009).

It was more of the same in his first outing this year in High A Fort Myers — three walks and no outs. But since then, he seems to have found the plate again, having walked six in 18.2 innings, all in relief.

He is definitely not a guy they're going to push.

The player to be named is named Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey, one of the pitchers the twins got in Johan Santana trade, is headed to Arizona as part of the Jon Rauch trade.

Judging from the above statement from the Twins, there's cash flowing in both directions as well, but that's probably a technicality. The trade was Rauch for Mulvey, and I'm fine with that. Happier with that than I was with Carl Pavano for Yohan Pino, because Rauch will be around next season.

Mulvey hadn't developed the way I, and I assume the Twins, expected he would when they got him. Here are his pro ball numbers. Note the slight regression while repeating Triple A this year. Almost exactly the same innings, but more walks, fewer strikeouts and a worse ERA. He certainly didn't improve.

Which is why it's Jeff Manship (above) getting the start today against the White Sox. It's not that the Twins expect Manship to be great; by all accounts, they think he's up too soon. But the Twins clearly had come to regard him as a better option than Mulvey.

The trade of Mulvey, coupled with the fact that Phil Humber has been dropped from the 40-man roster twice this season, breaks the direct take from the Santana trade down to Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, although the Twins now have Rauch as a spinoff. Guerra has at least had a decent bounce-back season after a rough 2008 — note the vastly improved walk and strikeout rates.