Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Delmon Young trade

Delmon Young hit some
big home runs for Detroit in
the postseason.

When: Aug. 15, 2011
What: In a waiver deal, the Twins sent outfielder Delmon Young to the Detroit Tigers for right-handed pitcher Lester Oliveros and left-handed pitcher Cole Nelson.
Value: Young had 10 total win shares in 2011; he had 0.1 WAR with the Twins and -0.1 with the Tigers. Oliveros had 1 win share for the season, 0.1 WAR with the Twins. Nelson, a Minnesota native, spent the season in high-A ball.
Twins motivation: They dumped a veteran they weren't planning to retain for two young pitchers (Oliveros is 23, Nelson 22).

This deal was the white flag, the moment at which the Twins conceded that they were not making a run at another AL Central title. This was the first -- and last -- time Bill Smith traded away a veteran for prospects in mid season; his previous in-season trades had gone the other way.

Young had a bizarre season. He displayed almost no power with the Twins (slugging percentage .357), with four homers in more than 300 at-bats, but the defensive metrics depicted an excellent left fielder. He hammered eight regular season homers in less than 170 at-bats with Detroit, and the metrics paint him as a disaster in the outfield there. The Baseball Reference version of wins above replacement actually has him playing better for the Twins than with the Tigers.

So brutal was Young in the outfield with Detroit that by season's end there was speculation that the Tigers would non-tender him (which is what the Twins would likely have done had they not traded him). That didn't happen, perhaps because Young bashed another five homers during the Tigers' two playoff rounds. (He and the Tigers reached an agreement on Tuesday, avoiding an arbitration hearing, for $6.75 million.)

One interesting aspect of this trade is that Jim Leyland installed Young in the No. 3 spot in the batting order, right in front of MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera. Even in 2010, in what appeared to be a breakout season, Young seldom got out of the bottom half of Ron Gardenhire's lineups.

Oliveros is in the mix for a bullpen role in 2012; like many Tigers prospects, he throws hard with uncertain control. (Baseball America says his is the best fastball in the Twins organization.) Nelson is another power arm, albeit further from the majors.

Gone Young

Delmon Young went from hitting eighth for a fourth-place
team to hitting third for a first-pace team.

So many aspects to Monday's Delmon Young deal.  Let's start at the beginning.

The first trade: Bill Smith, the Twins general manager, takes a lot of Internet grief for trading for Young to begin with. He gets none from this corner, because I liked the trade — or at least the Young for Matt Garza portion — when it happened.

Remember: The Twins had just finished a disappointing 2007 season. Torii Hunter was going to leave as a free agent, Michael Cuddyer had had a mildly disappointing year and the rest of the outfield had done nothing. Young had a pretty solid rookie season and was just 21.

The problem I had with the trade was the Jason Bartlett for Brendan Harris exchange, and I was and am inclined to blame that more on Ron Gardenhire, who never seemed to buy Bartlett as a shortstop.

None of the six players involved in that trade are still with their acquiring team. Young hasn't become a star as anticipated, but neither has Garza. Garza and Young have had their moments, but consistency has eluded them.

The return: We don't fully know the return on this trade, because there's a player to be named involved.
What we do know is that Detroit accepted Young's contract, so the Twins save about $1.3 million there (which is probably more than sufficient to absorb any budget issues involved in signing draft picks Monday).

And they got Cole Nelson, a left-handed pitcher from Edina (native son bonus) whose numbers in High A ball this year aren't impressive.

But: He's 6-foot-7 and throws hard (Baseball America says he touches 95 with the fastball). He has, BA says, difficulty repeating his delivery (not uncommon for raw guys of that size) and that leads to control problems, and he's pitched much better since being shifted to the bullpen.

The odds are always against Class A relief pitchers making it in the majors, but there are worse players to take a chance on than a big lefty with velocity.

Young's future: He probably didn't have much of one with the Twins. I couldn't see the Twins keeping all three of their opening collection of corner outfielders (Young, Cuddyer and Jason Kubel) past this season. One, yes, two maybe, but not all three, not with Cuddyer and Kubel free-agent eligible and Young due a raise in arbitration.

Had Young remained through this season, the Twins were likely to non-tender him this winter, and he would leave for nothing.

Detroit sees him differently. Magglio Ordonez has been useless this season. The Tigers look at Young and figure: Even in a down year, he's more productive than Mags; even with arbitration this winter, he's cheaper than Mags; even with his awkwardness in the field, he's no real defensive downgrade from Mags.

For the Twins, Young was frustrating and excess. For the Tigers, he's fresh and an upgrade. And more than a two-month rental. He'll be there next season too.

The Twins future outfield: Figures to be very left-handed. Pencil Ben Revere in at left field and Denard Span in center. Assume the Twins re-sign one of the Cuddyer/Kubel pair but not both; that guy will split time between right field and either DH (Kubel) or first base (Cuddyer).

If it's Kubel, the Twins will have an all left-handed hitting outfield — and with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau inhabiting the middle of the lineup, the team will overly lefty. Which is a reason for Cuddyer to be a higher priority than Kubel.