Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: The Hardy-Hoey trade

J.J. Hardy was charged with 11 errors in 2010
with the Twins, six in 2011 with Baltimore.

When: Dec. 9, 2010
What: The Twins traded shortstop J.J. Hardy, infielder Brendan Harris and cash to Baltimore for right-handed pitchers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Value: Hardy is credited with 22 win shares and 4.1 WAR in 2011; Hoey with zero WS and -0.4 WAR. Neither Harris nor Jacobson played in the majors in 2011. Hardy, who turned 29 in August, signed a three-year deal with the Orioles during the 2011 season. Hoey was sold to Toronto this offseason in a waiver deal. Harris is a free agent. Jacobson remains in the Twins system.
Twins motivation: A combination of payroll cutting, adding velocity-oriented bullpen options and the belief that Hardy didn't fit Target Field/wasn't as good as his 2007-08 seasons indicate/was readily replaceable.

As with the Capps-Ramos trade discussed here last week, it would be difficult to make this deal turn out any worse for the Twins than it did in 2011.

Jim Hoey allowed
four homers in
24.2 innings in 2011.

Hoey indeed had a high-velocity fast ball. But he lacked a useful secondary pitch and command and movement on the fastball, which made him imminently hittable and, ultimately, not the successor to the LaTroy Hawkins-Jesse Crain line of middle-relief power arms.

And Hardy had the best offensive season of his rather inconsistent career.

Hardy had two good power seasons for Milwaukee in 2007-08, when he averaged 25 homers. But he fell off badly in 2009, and the Brewers traded him to make room for the younger, rangier and cheaper Alcedes Escobar (whom they later traded in the Zach Greinke deal). With the Twins, Hardy again didn't hit for the anticipated power (six homers) and was limited to 95 starts at shortstop in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota.

With Baltimore in 2011, he bopped 30 homers (and added 27 doubles). Zing!

One factor may be health. He had a hand injury early in the 2010 season and it was never fully healed. He implied last season that he had the same problem early in 2011 and the Orioles (unlike the Twins) medical staff was able to fix it.

Another factor may be ballparks. Home runs come easier in Camden Yards than in Target Field. And he plays more road games now in smaller yards, such as Fenway Park, than he did in the AL Central, where Detroit and Kansas City offer two other difficult places to hit long balls. He hit 15 homers home and road last season; in 2010, he hit one homer in Minnesota, five on the road.

What is Hardy's real level of offensive ability? He has in 2007-11 three seasons of 26, 24 and 30 homers; he also has seasons of 6 and 11. Much of his offensive value is in his power; he has one season in his career with an OBP above .330. If he ain't slugging, he ain't hitting -- and in the offseason of 2010-11, he hadn't slugged for two years.

So Hardy was -- like Ramos -- at a low point of value when the Twins moved him.

The Twins didn't trade him until they had the Tsuyoshi Nishioka deal essentially in place. They expected Nishi to fill one of the middle infield slots; that didn't work either. (I'll discuss the Nishioka deal in another post.) Misreading Nishioka's ability played a role in trading away Hardy.

Then there's this: With the giant Mauer contract about to kick in, the Twins had to get cheaper at other roster spots. Even with the jettisoning of most of the bullpen veterans and the departure of second baseman Orlando Hudson, they essentially needed to clear out one of Carl Pavano, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel or Hardy.

They chose the one who had had the worst 2010 season. They also unloaded Brendan Harris, although I don't know that they saved much money on that (I think they gave the O's enough cash to pay for Harris' major-league deal).

At the fringes of the roster

The Twins opened Monday with a full 40-man roster.

They ended it with just 37 players.

Jim Hoey walked 13
and struck out 14
in 24.2 innings.

Gone, in chronological order:

Jim Hoey, right-handed reliever, claimed by Toronto on waivers;
Pedro Florimon, shortstop, outrighted to Rochester;
Jose Mijares, left-handed reliever, non-tendered.

Taking them one at a time:

Hoey, acquired from Baltimore last winter around this time in the J.J. Hardy trade, throws with great velocity but with little command and less movement. The result is too many walks, too many hits, not enough strikeouts and way too many runs. The Jays will now try to find a pitcher in that. Good luck to them.

Florimon was picked up from the Orioles a week ago when they tried to outright him to Triple A. The Twins were able to get him through waivers. My take on all this: He ranks in the Twins system below the four middle infielders who remain on the 40 (Jamey Carroll, Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes and Tsuyoshi Nishioka), and probably below Brian Dozier (who isn't on the 40 because the Twins didn't need to protect him from the Rule V draft).

Jose Mijares walked 30
and struck out 30
in 49 innings.

Mijares was cut loose on the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The portly LOOGY has had declining stats every season, and it's a pretty safe assumption that the Twins didn't want to give him the kind of raise the arbitration process would dictate -- especially since he didn't figure to be more than the third lefty in the 2012 bullpen. He and his agent now get to see what the free agent market says about him.

Wrong turn at Alburquerque

The Twins saw all too much of Al Alburquerque this week. The Tigers rookie middle reliever pitched in all three games against Minnesota — 2.1 innings, five strikeouts among the seven outs, one baserunner allowed, two wins and a hold.

Al Alburquerque has faced 74
batters. Thirty-one have
struck out; 12 have walked.
He does not pitch to contact.

For the season (and his career), Alburquerque has pitched 17.2 major league innings and struck out 31.

He is emerging as what the Twins were hoping Jim Hoey would be — a gas-throwing righty to stomp on rallies in the seventh inning.

One difference between Alburquerque and Hoey: the Tigers pitcher has a high quality slider. Hoey has the fastball to match Alburquerque, but he lacks the secondary offering.

Another difference: Hoey came to the Twins in a trade. To be sure, it was a salary dump; the Twins wanted/needed to jettison the expense represented by infielders J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris. Alburquerque was free talent.

He's 24, but he's been kicking around the minors for years — signed by the Cubs in 2003, still in A ball when traded to Colorado in midseason 2009, cut loose by the Rockies in early November last year, signed by the Tigers as a minor league free agent about two weeks later.

One can figure the Twins had a shot at signing him, but he either wasn't on their radar or chose the Tigers instead.

He's just another example of the virtues of building a bullpen on a budget.

A cold afternoon at the ball park

With the confluence Thursday of a furlough day for me, a Twin Cities meeting for my wife and a noon Twins game with available tickets, I went.

Brrr. And. as a Twins fan, Grrr.

Taking the tarp off the
field on a cold, damp day.

I don't mind confessing that I didn't make it though the whole fiasco. For that matter, most of the people in my section -- section 319, with an excellent view down the right field foul line -- didn't make it through all nine innings (although it's quite possible that some of them either took shelter in the nearby Twins Pub or under the radiant heaters).

A few thoughts:

Jim Hoey impressed me more than his line score would suggest. He was lit up for three runs when the Twins tried to get eight outs from him, but he was very good for the first time through the order. (Ben Zobrist's three-run homer was immediately preceeded by a hit-and-run single on which I'm sure Matt Joyce broke his bat.)

Jose Mijares was not good. He got just two outs and needed 37 pitches to do so. (In comparison, Hoey got his eight outs on 44 pitches.) And the less said about Nick Blackburn, the better. Like Liriano the night before, Blackburn couldn't or wouldn't throw strikes.

The Rays abused the battery of Blackburn and Steve Holm on the bases. It's a very fast team -- at least three men in their lineup for the nooner are faster than anybody the Twins have (B.J. Upton, Sam Fuld and Sean Rodriguez) -- and Holm's arm doesn't impress me.

Rene Tosoni was probably the only Twins player who could be happy with that game. Two hits in his major league debut.

More bullpen shuffle

Jim Hoey threw 18
pitches Monday,
14 for strikes.

Jim Hoey looked good in his Twins debut Monday night, getting the last out of the seventh and breezing through the eighth. Jose Mijares was less impressive (six pitches, only two strikes) and definitely has to rank behind Glen Perkins in the bullpen heirarchy.

There certainly remain reasons to be skeptical of the idea of Perkins and Hoey as the primary set-up men, but the struggles of Joe Nathan and Mijares meant someone else had to be given the opportunity to get the big outs late. As long as Hoey and Perkins get those outs, all is well -- and both have the arms to do it, they merely lack the resume.

And now Alex Burnett has been shipped back out and Eric Hacker recalled. Hacker was pretty lousy in spring training, but he's pitched well in Rochester — 11 shutout innings, 10 strikeouts and no walks — and he makes more sense as the long man than Burnett does.

Eric Hacker made his
major league debut
in 2009 with Pittsburgh

Bullpen roles in progress:

Closer: Matt Capps
Setup 1: Perkins
Lefty 1: Mijares
MR1/SU2: Hoey
Lefty 2: Dusty Hughes
MR2: Nathan
Long: Hacker

Bullpen candidate profile: Jim Hoey

Jim Hoey last pitched
in the majors in 2007.
Since then, it's been
injury, surgery, rehab.

Pitcher: Jim Hoey
Throws: Right
Age: 28
Roster status: 40-man roster; option status unclear.
Chance of making team: Good to fair.

When I said in Wednesday's post about Anthony Slama that he may have to wait for somebody more obviously talented to fail before he gets a clean shot at a Twins bullpen job, this was the guy I had in mind.

Slama has average velocity; Hoey routinely throws in the upper 90s. Slama was drafted in the 39th round, which means the Twins have a minimal investment in him; Hoey came in December's J.J. Hardy trade, which makes him third-generation fruit of the Johan Santana trade (Santana for Gomez for Hardy for Hoey).

Like Slama, Hoey pitched in Monday's exhibition game; like Slama, he gave up two runs in one inning. His two came on a single followed by a home run by Josh Reddick.

Ron Gardenhire, quoted on the StarTribune website:

Even the pitch [Reddick] went deep on was not a bad pitch. It was down, with an angle and good velocity. I like to see that velocity. ... You can be successful with a fastball down, too, and [Hoey] looked like he made a great effort to throw the ball down.

As I said of Slama, two runs in a Feb. 28 game shouldn't matter much. But Hoey's going to get more chances to fail. That's partly for the velocity, partly for the investment.

---

No matter how hard a pitcher throws, a second pitch is valuable. Hoey's No.2 pitch is now a splitter, which intrigues me because the Twins have long downplayed/discouraged the pitch in their organization. They prefer to see their prospects learn the circle change, which is far less stressful on the forearm.

Before Carlos Silva's final season in Minnesota, he came to camp talking about his new split-fingered fastball. Within a couple of days, they were calling it a forkball, and by the time the season started, it was a change-up. I doubt anything about the pitch itself changed; I think they simply didn't want to have the minor leaguers saying, Hey, he's throwing it, let me try it.

Hoey's 28, and he's pretty close to make-it-or-break-it status, so I suspect they'll let him throw what he wants. But if somebody like Dakota Watts (a hard-throwing kid in their low minors) wants to add it, they'll probably resist.

A rough draft of the 2011 bullpen

In today's game, calling somebody a "relief pitcher" is akin to calling somebody an infielder. A shortstop is not a first baseman is not a second baseman is not a third baseman, and a lefty specialist (or LOOGY)  is not a closer is not a long man.

So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.

Joe Nathan: 246 saves with the Twins.

Joe Nathan (injured; closer): The significant questions begin at the very foundation of the bullpen. Nobody knows in the dead of winter what form Nathan's return from ligament replacement surgery will take. Anything is possible, from a Billy Wagner-style complete and immediate return to excellence to a Darren Dreifort-style immediate reinjury.

But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.

Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.

The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.

Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.

The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.

The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.

Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).

Pat Neshek's Twins ERAs:
2.19, 2.94, 4.73. 5.00

Alex Burnett: (utility): Miscast last season in multi-inning stints because that's where the team had its need. His minor league success has come in shorter stints.

The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.

Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.

Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.

Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.

The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.

Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.

The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.

That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 --  for the Twins.

How I see it as of today:

Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)

Can the Twins teach power arms to throw strikes?

 La Velle Neal's blog post on the J.J. Hardy trade quotes Twins general manager Bill Smith on Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson, the two pitchers the Twins acquired:

``They are both in the mid- to high 90's. Both throw 95 and above. They have challenges with command and control and whatever but they bring velocity. Coming into our organization and our environment with all of the pitching coaches and adding them into our system, we will try and let our guys work their magic with them.''

It's true that the Twins are pretty good at teaching control. But part of that is who they're working with. They put their scouting and drafting emphasis on control; nobody in baseball was surprised when they used their first round pick on Alex Wimmers, widely regarded as having the best command in the draft pool. They draft pitchers with good control, then they sharpen it.

But they had no more success than the Colorado Rockies did getting Juan Morillo to throw strikes with his 98-mph fastball; they eventually gave up and sold him to a Japanese team. Shooter Hunt has wonderful stuff, but in 2010 he walked 84 men in 67.1 innings (and hit 11 batters, and threw 19 wild pitches).

Citing Hunt is probably unfair; I don't think anybody's figured out how to cure a pitcher who's contracted Steve Blass disease. 

Hoey says his emphasis in the past two seasons had been regaining his velocity after shoulder surgery, suggesting that his command will improve. The Twins are counting on it. They might be able to teach command of the fastball, but nobody can teach a 97 mph heater. 

J.J., we Hardy knew ye

J.J. Hardy did not display
the home run power
with the Twins that
he did in Milwaukee.

One year, 101 games, two disabled list stints and gone. The Twins got less out of James Jerry Hardy (,263/.320/.394 in 375 plate appearances) than they did out of Brendan Harris (.251/.309/.360 in 1,063 plate appearances), and now both infielders have been shipped to Baltimore with cash for a pair of pitchers who spent last season in the minors.

Jim Hoey was essentially rehabbing an injured shoulder; he's a hard-thrower with 34-plus major league innings on his resume in 2006 and '07; he missed 2008 with shoulder surgery; he has been in Double- and Triple-A throwing 100 innings and striking out 117. Brett Jacobson is another hard-thrower, age 24, who hasn't gotten out of high A ball yet; he's a project.

Couple this trade with the Rule 5 selection of left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Braves system and the Twins are coming home from the Winter Meetings with

• Two candidates in Hoey and Diamond to restock their 2011 bullpen;
• An apparently nearly complete deal with Japansese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka;
• A commitment to a faster middle infield in Alexi Casilla and Nishioka;
• A slimmer payroll (by roughly $7 million or so)

We don't know what the Twins will do with their savings. If, as LeVelle Neal suggests, it's re-signing Carl Pavano, I'll be rather dissatisfied with this activity. Pavano is a declining stock.