Notes, quotes and comment

Carl Pavano had been talking about making a comeback this spring, but found no takers and abandoned the notion on Wednesday. He hadn't made an appearance since 2012 when his shoulder essentially gave way; last winter he ruptured his spleen in a snow-shoveling accident that almost killed him. (Be careful out there, folks.)

Yohan Pino: Since
the Twins traded him,
he's pitched in
Double A and Triple A
for Cleveland, Toronto
and Cincinnati.

Pavano ends his career with a 108-107, 4.39 record, some $70 million in earnings, a World Series ring with the 2003 Marlins, and with a great deal of affection from Twins fans to counterbalance the scorn from Yankees fans.

And, hey, he was once traded for Pedro Martinez.

He was also once traded for Yohan Pino. That was the trade that brought Pavano to the Twins in midseason 2009. Pino is back with the Twins as a non-roster invitee this spring.

That makes Pino the equivalent to Pedro, right? Right?

 ---

Last week I offered my personal top 15 Twins prospects list. A commenter a few days later asked why Jose (or J.O.) Berrios wasn't on the list. Answer: Because I messed up. I have revised the list, with Berrios at No. 7 ( I stuck him between Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco) and Travis Harrison sliding off the list.

---

Will Leitch of Sports on Earth wrote this piece on why players change teams so often (his answer: because that's the way the owners want the sport structured financially).

There are aspects of this I intend to explore with more thoroughness than fits in this NQC format, which I intend to be a series of quick hits, but I do want to note that Joe Mauer is tied (with Ryan Howard) for seventh among current players at 1,178 games. This is most games, one team. He'll climb up the list, obviously.

Notes, quotes and comment

Carl Pavano went 2-5,
6.00 last season in
11 starts.

I forgot to mention Carl Pavano in Thursday's post about ex-Twins of recent vintage who have found little demand for their services this winter. On Thursday came word that Pavano suffered a ruptured spleen while snow shoveling in Vermont. He remains unsigned, and with this injury, he's likely to remain unsigned into the season.

---

In a long story on international signings in their Feb. 5 issue, Baseball America notes that the Twins have invested $150,000 in Johan Quezada, an 18-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. Quezada, says the magazine's Ben Badler, is most notable for his projection: He's 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds. He throws now in the upper 80s, but if/as he gains weight and strength, that may well rise. He's definitely a project.

---

A couple of items tweeted out of Day 1 of Twins Fest: 

*General manager Terry Ryan told the AP's Jon Krawczynski the Twins aim to have Joe Mauer catch 120 games this year. He caught 74 last season (started 72), a workload that had many viewing him as transitioning out from catcher. 

It should be noted, however, that Mauer has only once started at least 120 games behind the plate (2008) and only one other time (2006) has he appeared in 120 games behind the plate (119 starts and one relief appearance). I'd love to see Mauer a truly regular catcher again, but I'll believe 120 games for him back there when I see it.

*Miguel Sano has apparently grown an inch since his last official measurement and will be listed this year as 6-foot-4. His increasing bulk is a big reason for the doubts that he can play third base in the majors when his time comes.

The ruins of a rotation plan

When the Twins this week outrighted Nick Blackburn to Triple A, removing him from the 40-man roster, it meant that the all five members of the projected rotation were gone.

"The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry," but the question rises: Were the Twins rotation plans all that well made to begin with?

Scott Baker is coming
off ligament replacement
surgery and will be a
free agent this winter.

Scott Baker was the first of the five to fall; he didn't make it out of spring training. He'd had elbow problems last year, didn't have surgery, couldn't muster his usual velocity in camp, had surgery -- and once the surgeon opened the elbow, he found more damage than expected, and performed Tommy John surgery.

Fairly or not, this fit an apparent pattern of missed diagnoses and undertreatment. We'll see this again.

Next out was Jason Marquis, signed in the winter to a one-year deal as a free agent. He was awful with the Twins -- 8.47 ERA in seven starts with more walks (14) than strikeouts (12), and the Twins released him. He signed with San Diego, and he's had an ERA of 4.04 in 15 starts with a BB/K ratio of 28/78.

Marquis seemed a curious addition at the time of his signing, and I never really viewed him as anything more than a pricey holding piece. Nobody should have expected him to be as bad as he was before the Twins dumped him; even with his competent numbers with the Padres, his overall numbers aren't all that good.

Carl Pavano went on the disabled list after 11 starts; his ERA was an even 6.00, and his velocity was missing from the time camp opened. He was moved to the 60-day disabled list (and off the 40 man roster) in late July, and his hopes of pitching again ended this month with a new diagnosis of a bruise on his humerus bone.

Francisco Liriano, the Twins big tease.

Pavano had been a durable workhorse for the Twins since they acquired him in 2009 despite a lengthy injury history. I can't fault the Twins for expecting another season of 200-plus innings from him, but ... all pitchers are injury risks by definition, and 36-year-old pitchers with marginal stuff are probably more vulerable than most.

What stands out, again, is how long this lingered. Pavano voiced some frustration this month that it took three months to find the problem.

Francisco Liriano was, again, Mr. Inconsistent. He had an excellent spring training, stunk in the early part of the season, spent some time in the bullpen, returned to the rotation, pitched better, got traded in late July.

He's done well with the White Sox. Good for him. I have to believe the Twins aren't going to be free-agent suitors for him. Counting on him in the past hasn't yielded much but headaches.

And finally, Blackburn. Those of us who believe in what the leading indicator stats say about pitchers knew when the Twins signed him to a four-year contract that it was a bad bet. And so it has proven.

The failure of any one of these five cannot really be called a surprise. They all carried their individual risk, be it injury histories or performance track records. That all five collapsed so utterly -- the lowest Minnesota ERA in the group was Liriano's 5.31 -- is.

One could reasonably have anticipated going into training camp that one, two, even three of these guys weren't going to succeed. All five? That seems extreme even for a confirmed pessimist.

Swarzak, Pavano, Perdomo

Luis Perdomo will
be the 41st player
used by the Twins
this season.

The Twins front office used Thursday's offday not to make a significant trade, but to do a little roster shuffling.

Anthony Swarzak went on the disabled list with what is described as a mild rotator cuff strain. Luis Perdomo was brought up from Rochester to fill the bullpen spot. And Carl Pavano was moved to the 60day disabled list to make room on the 40-man roster for Perdomo.

Start with Pavano. He went on the 15-day DL in early June, and he hasn't yet gone on a rehab assignment, so the 60-day designation means nothing in terms of his return. It does mean that if and when he's ready to pitch in the majors, somebody else is leaving the 40-man roster.

I say if and when. I fully expect Pavano to return, if only because his contract is up and he'd be better off in his search for a new contract if he demonstrates down the stretch that his shoulder is sound. It wasn't at any point this season. It could be the difference between a guaranteed contract and a minor-league deal.

Swarzak's injury came as the Twins were testing him out in higher-leverage situations. His season has had one significant plus -- his strikeout rate is up from 4.9 K/9 to 6.0 -- and one significant minus -- he's allowed 11 homers in 69 innings this year, as opposed to 9 homers in 102 innings in 2011. His ERA is slightly higher, his WHIP almost identical.

His best work has come as a long reliever. The thinning of the bullpen over the past month -- Matt Capps on the DL, Brian Duensing in and out of the rotation -- prompted Ron Gardenhire to try Swarzak in a set-up role. It hasn't gone swimmingly; for what it's worth, opposing hitters are hitting .247 against Swarzak when one team or the other is up by more than four runs, .298 when the game is closer. 

Perdomo is a 28-year-old right-hander who was signed as a minor league free agent during the winter and was an early cut in spring training. He opened in Double A, pushed his way to Rochester with 43 strikeouts in 39.1 innings, then racked up a 0.92 ERA in 19.2 innings in Triple A (18 Ks and just two walks).

Despite the impressive BB/K ratio in Rochester, his history suggests that command is a problem. He has 61 major league innings on his resume (San Diego), in which he's walked 5.3 men per nine innings and fanned 8.3. 

Perdomo will be the 24th Twin to pitch this season, counting Drew Butera. 

Notes from the weekend

It's gotta be the shoes: Brian Dozier and his
pink cleats on Mother's Day. Dozier hit his
first major league homer.

I spent more time Sunday listening to the radio broadcast (yard work) than the TV one, but Dick-n-Bert apparently drew a Scott Diamond-Cliff Lee comparison.

This elicited some jeers in my Twitter feed, but I'm not about to ridicule that comparison. I made it here last September.

That particular post, as it turns out, is one of the more highly-viewed posts in this blog's tenure. For all I know, my observation may have trickled to the broadcasters and contaminated their analysis. Or not. Either way, they're responsible for what they say on the air, and I'm responsible for what I write here.

---

Wilson Ramos, the young catcher the Twins gave up during the 2010 season to acquire Matt Capps, blew out his knee Saturday while pursuing a passed ball and will miss the remainder of the 2012 season.

This is another blow to the Nationals, who have lost outfielder Jayson Werth to a broken wrist, been without Ryan Zimmerman for much of the season and haven't had Mike Morse (31 homers last year) in the lineup yet. And it can't be much fun for Ramos either.

Wilson Ramos is helped off the field after
tearing a knee ligament.

The Ramos-Capps trade is widely regarded as a disaster for the Twins. I'm not that down on it. It did what it was intended to at the time — solidify the then-softening bullpen for the stretch run. Capps did have a worse 2011 season than Ramos did, but the odds are that Capps' 2012 will be better than Ramos'.

---

Carl Pavano had an MRI on his shoulder, which is said to have found minor inflammation. This may or may not explain his decreased velocity; inflammation pretty much comes with the territory of being a major league pitcher.

The results are being forwarded to another, outside, specialist (the one who determined that Scott Baker was indeed injured and needed elbow surgery), and in the meantime Pavano is to make his scheduled start today.

It's a situation worth watching. The two best starters this season at Rochester, Diamond and P.J. Walters, are already up; their places have been taken by Liam Hendriks and Matt Maloney (the latter having cleared waivers), and I wouldn't expect an early call-up for either of them.

Francisco Liriano hasn't had a bullpen outing yet, so he's not a likely option if Pavano must miss time. Which would appear to leave Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing — and there are indications that Duensing is the likely choice. Duensing has been very good in the bullpen, but if the starters can't get to him, he's not helping the cause much.

The Twins say the goal with Liriano is to eventually return him to the starting rotation. It figures to be difficult to swap out any more struggling starters without bringing him back into the mix.

On Liriano, Pavano and Baker

Francisco Liriano has an ERA above 11
after three starts.

Francisco Liriano was impressive during spring training. But his first three starts of the regular season have been nothing short of disastrous.

On Tuesday night in New York, he threw 76 pitches — 37 strikes, 39 balls —in the process of getting just seven outs.

Aaron Gleeman notes the decline in Liriano's velocity over the years,  but 91 mph is still plenty — if you know what to do with it. Liriano clearly does not.

The contrast between Carl Pavano on Monday and Liriano on Tuesday is rather stark. Pavano gave up two home runs in his first four pitches on Monday, and the Yankees tacked another run on in the first inning. He then found something that worked and shut the Yankees out for six innings before turning things over to the bullpen.

Pavano pitched. He survived rather than dominate. Liriano, if he doesn't dominate, is helpless.

I said in the Monday print column that pitching coach Rick Anderson, in trying to teach Liriano the techniques of pitching (as opposed to throwing) in 2006, was giving the wrong reasons at the wrong time. He was selling the idea on the basis that it would make Liriano even better, and that simply wasn't possible.

Maybe, had Anderson sold it to Liriano (and the public) as survival skills against the inevitable decline in his raw talent, it would have taken root.

Or maybe not. The voice of experience is often ignored by impatient youth.

At any rate, Liriano appears to be at a career crossroads. If he remains a thrower, he won't last much longer. And he's given little reason to believe he can change.

Scott Baker is looking
at at least a year's
rehab before he can
pitch again.

---

Scott Baker's tendon surgery morphed Tuesday into full-blown ligament transplant surgery, something that was publicly unforeseen but had been anticipated by the surgeon as a possibility.

This is hardly unprecedented — there have been other cases in which a lower-level operation is planned, with the surgeon only discovering after opening the elbow that the ligament is more damaged than could be discerned from the MRIs.

Still, this sequence of events will doubtless bring a fresh wave of skepticism from outside the organization (and maybe even inside it) about the Twins medical staff, which didn't see a need for any surgery. I'm hardly competent to critique the work of orthopedic surgeons, but the Twins' recent history contains a series of undertreatments and apparent failed diagnoses.

The strike-throwers (or not)

It is a time-honored managerial approach to winning baseball games, from Charles Comiskey and the St. Louis Browns of the 1880s through Frank Chance and the Cubs of the early 1900s, Pat Moran in the teens, Bill McKechnie with the Pirates, Cardinals and Reds in the '20s, '30s and '40s, Billy Southworth's St. Louis Cardinals in the '40s, Al Lopez with the Indians and White Sox in the '50s, Earl Weaver's Orioles in the '70s ... and best represented over the past decade by Ron Gardenhire's Twins:

Play good defenders in the field and throw strikes.

As much attention as the Twins' inept middle infield defense drew during last season's disaster, an overlooked problem was on the mound -- which is odd because while defense remains difficult to reliably quantify in the stats, command and control isn't.

The Twins, and in particular their starting pitchers, simply didn't command the strike zone as reliably in 2011 as they had in the past.

As a staff, the 2011 Twins walked 3.0 men per nine innings. In 2010, it was 2.4; in 2009, 2.9; in 2008, 2.5.

Check out these starters:

• Nick Blackburn went from 2.2 walks per nine innings to 2010 to 3.3 in 2011.
• Brian Duensing went from 2.4 to 2.9.
• Francisco Liriano went from 2.7 to 5.0.

Not all the starters were that bad.

• Carl Pavano went from 1.5 to 1.6 -- essentially unchanged, and very low to boot.
• Scott Baker went from 2.3 to 2.1 (and had a second straight decline of 30 innings in his workload; one of the typical benefits of avoiding walks is durability, but Baker's only reached 200 innings once).

But on the whole, the Twins pitchers didn't hold up their end of the organization's core philosophy. That has to change if the team is to rebound in 2012.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Pavano trade

Carl Pavano in 2010, when
he went 17-11, 3.75 with a AL-best
seven complete games.

When: August 9, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Carl Pavano from Cleveland in a waiver deal for RHP Yohan Pino
Value: Pavano provided 0.8 WAR after the trade in 2009. He has remained with the Twins on two free-agent contracts and provided 5.5 WAR in 2010 and 2011. He had 7 win shares total in 2009, 15 in 2010 and 9 in 2011. Pino has yet to reach the majors and ended 2011 in the Toronto organization.
Twins motivation: Reinforce the starting rotation.

The Twins were well behind the Detroit Tigers when they traded for Pavano, and their rotation -- particularly Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano -- was spluttering. Pavano was trying to rebuild his reputation after an injury-riddled three seasons with the Yankees in which he got dubbed "American Idle" by the NYC tabs.

He has been a reliable starter with Minnesota, far more so than I expected -- 12 starts in less than two months in 2009, 32 starts in 2010, 33 starts in 2011. He has one more season to go on his second Twins contract, and I remain stubbornly wary of his declining strikeout rate.

But it has to be said that this trade worked very well for Minnesota. And for Pavano.

Problem spot: Carl Pavano

(This was originally set up to publish early Wednesday morning.  But then Francisco Liriano threw his no-hitter, and I pushed to back a day. Then the Twins won again on Wednesday, and I decided,  hey, let's not post "problem spot" pieces the day after a Twins win. So here it is, the day after an off day. Hey, it had to go sometime.)

Carl Pavano after his bat-swinging attack on a dugout trash can on Sunday:

"The (bat) wouldn't break. I couldn't break a bat in the dugout and I couldn't break any out there (on the mound). It was embarrassing."

An illuminating comment, that: It raises the notion, which I should have thought of earlier, that breaking bats is a way those who "pitch to contact" gauge their effectiveness.

Pavano's strikeout rate after five starts is 4.1 K/9, which is down some from last season's K rate and down sharply from his 7.2 K/9 with the Twins in 2009. The 2009 rate was a bit of fluke; Pavano's career rate is 5.7. (Stats line here.) Last season's decline is why I would have preferred to see the Twins let Pavano sign elsewhere during the winter.

Pavano was, as we know, effective last season (3.75 ERA in 221 innings) and ineffective so far this season (5.84 ERA). That's a two-runs per nine innings swing, which is pretty significant.

Without question, part of that swing is explained by the deteriorating Minnesota infield defense. But I suspect that part of it is that Pavano isn't breaking bats — which means batters are hitting more line drives against him, and fewer pop-ups and weak grounders.

Pavano is never going to be a high strikeout guy. He's got to keep the ball off the sweet spot of the bat. This is something I'm going to start watching for with Pavano — and, for that matter, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing, two other Twins starters whose strikeout rates are either subpar (Blackburn) or just barely acceptable (Duensing).

Run down

The best part of Friday's game
as far as the Twins were concerned.

Well, that was sure ugly.

Earlier on Friday I heard Pat Reusse and Phil Mackey discuss which Twins player would have the biggest falloff in 2011. Reusse picked Francisco Liriano, Mackey Danny Valencia. I was telling the radio: Carl Pavano.

Pavano got the Opening Day start in tribute to his veteranness, but he was part of the first inning jitters-bug himself. Vin Scully used a phrase frequently when broadcasting for NBC (and probably still does): Beaten to death by an angry moth, and that was the first inning for Pavano. An infield hit, a botched pickoff, a ground ball single, double steal, walk, hit-by-pitch, two sac flies, an error, a balk ... Ugly.

Pavano had a stellar 2010 in part because he was very good at limiting the damage. In the first inning of Friday's game, he put gasoline on the fire. Had they gotten the out on that pickoff, it's a one-run inning, but it turned into four runs. Then he started feeding his gopher.

Ah well. There will be better days.

The Pavano contract

Carl Pavano's return to the Twins is finally official, and a bit more team-friendly than I had expected: two years, 16.5 million. Early this offseason there had been expectations of something around $10 million a year.

Still, I'm not a fan of this deal, as regular readers probably know. Not to belabor the points again, but ...

Carl Pavano fell just short of career highs
in wins and innings pitched in 2010.

• He's 35;
• He has an extensive injury history (although he has been durable the past two seasons);
• His strikeout rate, never all that impressive, plummeted last season.

He's a better bet to run off an ERA above 5.00 than under 4.00 in 2011. They don't need to pay $8 million for that.

The Yankees -- with whom Pavano had a miserable, injury-ridden four years -- reportedly made a significant offer (one report said one year, $10 million). I don't know which was less likely, the Yankees bringing him back or him choosing to go back there. But I still think, as I said repeatedly this winter, that the Twins would be better off with the extra draft picks in June than with Pavano in their rotation this season.

Retaining him DOES deepen Minnesota's rotation options. Without him, Plan A was Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn (my ranking of them by ability), with Jeff Manship as the initial Plan B when somebody gets hurt.

I don't regard Pavano as truly better than any of those five, but he's not getting $8 million to work out of the bullpen. Assuming that all six starters are healthy, we can figure that Liriano, Pavano and Baker are locks for the rotation, with the other three duking it out for the other two slots.

Duensing is probably the guy who could most help out of the bullpen, but Slowey is the one I think Ron Gardenhire least likes. 

Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson is a real candidate to force his way onto the staff sometime this summer, next year at the latest. If nobody gets hurt, I sense a trade coming this spring.

More talk about pitchers

When the Twins announced the Jim Thome signing last week, Bill Smith (the general manager) indicated that  Carl Pavano was going to spend the weekend making his decision and that saga was likely to be concluded Monday or Tuesday.

Matt Capps: The $7.15 million set-up man
(if all goes well).

That's on hold, we are told now, because today (Tuesday) is the deadline to exchange arbitration numbers. That's a big day for all front offices as they deal with the likes of (in the Twins case) Matt Capps, Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano.

That Pavano can be put on a back burner suggests, again, that he's returning. If he had decided to sign elsewhere, no back-burner is needed.

In other pitching developments:

* Jon Rauch landed with the Toronto Blue Jays (one year, $3.75 million, with a 2012 option). Brian Fuentes signed with Oakland (two years, $10 million). That cleans out the four rated free-agent relievers from the 2010 season. Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Rauch and Fuentes combined for 45 percent of the Twins bullpen innings, according to Aaron Gleeman; I would have thought it more, but Fuentes hardly registers, and Rauch's workload was limited.

Matt Capps has been retained; his $7.15 million is probably more than the Twins had penciled in, but he's back. He closes if Joe Nathan isn't ready, he sets up if Nathan is ready.

The absence of a deep established bullpen brings to mind a story from the early days of the Civil War, when William Sherman heard Abraham Lincoln, after being briefed on the North's problems, say, "Well, I guess we'll manage to keep house." Sherman was not impressed by what he deemed a lack of urgency in Lincoln, but events proved Abe right. The Twins knew the four relievers were departing; we shall see if Ron Gardenhire, Rick Anderson and company can keep house without them. I suspect they can.

* That the A's forked out that kind of money for an overqualified LOOGY/underwhelming closer startled me. Billy Beane is known for trying to exploit market inefficiencies, and one of them has long been the tendency to overpay for saves. Beane has certainly constructed an imposing bullpen, with Andrew Bailey in the ninth and Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Fuentes and Craig Breslow available to mix and match.

* The Yankees are reported to be sniffing at the decaying corpses of Kevin Millwood and Freddy Garcia to fill out their starting rotation. Such a signing would be akin to the Twins past pattern of signing the likes of Ramon Ortiz or Sidney Ponson; the idea is to fill a gap for a few weeks while a prospect marinates a bit longer in the high minors or until a better option emerges on the trade market.

I find it hard to believe that the Yanks would rather go with a washed-up vet than give Joba Chamberlain a clean shot at the rotation.

Carl Pavano, it's 2011. Do you know where your contract is?

The waiting is the hardest part.

This wasn't the way Carl Pavano's contract talks were supposed to go.

After his high-quality 2010 season -- 17-11, 3.75 -- he figured to cash on his pair of one-year, make-good deals. He'd gone two seasons without injury, two seasons of 200-plus innings. He was arguably the second-best starter on the free agent market.

The expectations were for a three-year deal totalling $30 million.

Hasn't happened. Doesn't appear to be happening. Might not ever have been a possibility.

Ted Lilly got such a deal, but Lilly is (a) left-handed, (b) two years younger and (c) has a less extensive injury history.

Jon Garland, who has been far more durable than Pavano and is five years younger, got a mere one-year, $5 million deal ($2 million less than Pavano got last season).

Pavano and his agent appear to have figured that if they waited out the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the teams that were after Lee and missed would go after him. And they probably figured that the Yankees would sign Lee. But that didn't happen. Pavano's history with the Yankees made them an impossible destination (probably for either side), and Texas is apparently uninterested in Pavano.

The Brewers are said to have made a pitch to Pavano, then turned their attention to getting Zach Greinke. They're out.

It appears that the Pavano market is down to the Twins and the Washington Nationals. There's no competitive reason for a 35-year-old to sign with the Nats; if he does go there, it will be for the money. That he hasn't signed yet makes me wonder if either has offered even a two-year deal, much less three.

So he waits for the Twins to bid against themselves. And I don't think that's likely.

Waiting for Godot: Pavano and Thome

Christmas is past and
Carl Pavano hasn't been
wrapped up yet.

The Twins have, still, two open spots on their 40-man roster. Presumably those are being held for Carl Pavano and Jim Thome.

Pavano and Thome play very different roles, but they have these things in common:

• They are older players whose very age makes them question marks;
• They performed better than 2010 than they can be expected to perform in 2011;
• They went into free agency expecting multi-year offers and, judging from the fact that they remain unsigned, aren't getting that kind of interest; and
• the Twins want them back, but aren't willing to bid against themselves.

Seth Stohs last week asked the question: Did the Twins lose out on other moves because they were waiting for Pavano?

My guess is not. As I see it, the Twins went into this offseason with two priorities:

1. Make the middle infield younger, faster and cheaper;
2. Revamp the free agent-laden bullpen.

They have certainly accomplished the first part, and they have a multitude of pieces from which to construct a new relief corps.

Now, if they retain Pavano, that will open some additional possibilities. Perhaps they'll trade one of their right-handed starters; perhaps they'll return Brian Duensing to the bullpen. But they've dealt with their chief concerns without a Pavano decision.

It appears that neither Jesse Crain nor Matt Guerrier — the two long-term Twins relievers who have signed elsewhere this month — found any sense that the Twins wanted to retain them. Nor has there been any sense that the Twins are particularly interested in keeping Brian Fuentes or Jon Rauch.

That lack of interest suggests to me that the Twins made a baseball decision as well as a financial one: That beyond the cost of re-signing even one of these veterans, it was time to move on to younger pitchers, fresher arms, in those roles.

True, they haven't added established major leaguers, but they are looking for four- and five-year solutions to both the middle infield and middle relief, not the short-term Band-Aids that the likes of Orlando Hudson and Rauch represent.

That means trusting your talent evaluators and going young. The Twins talent evaluators have, by and large, earned our faith.

----

Poll stuff: A slow week on the blog and a less-than-compelling question result in a mere 37 votes in this week's poll question:  Who should hit second for the Twins in 2011?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka won easily, getting 28 votes (75 percent) to Alexi Casilla's nine votes (25 percent).

New poll up.

Jon Garland gets no respect

Compare these two pitchers:

Pitcher A: 14-12, 200 innings, 3.47 ERA
Pitcher B: 17-11, 221 innings, 3.75 ERA

Of course, there's more to the numbers. Player A had unimpressive component stats in 2010— but always does. He's also 30 and has a truly impressively consistent nine-year record — every year he makes 32 starts, pitches about 200 innings, wins 10-plus games. Everything about his stats says he's mediocre; somehow he adds up to more than mediocre.

Jon Garland is the definition of innings eater. 

Pitcher B is five years older and, while he's been healthy the past two seasons, has a frightening injury history. He has just four seasons of 30-plus starts on his resume, four seasons of 200-plus innings (and that's including a season in which he gets there by counting a postseason start).

Pitcher A, despite being much younger, has pitched more than 300 more innings than Pitcher B with 30 more decisions. Their career ERAs are almost identical—4.32 for Pitcher A, 4.34 for Pitcher B

Pitcher A is Jon Garland, who on Sunday signed with the Dodgers for one year, $5 million (with incentives-based bonuses and 2012 option).

Pitcher B is Carl Pavano, who remains a free agent and is about as hotly pursued this offseason as any pitcher can be without the Yankees involved. Somebody is going to give him at least three years — and twice as much guaranteed money a year.

Seems to me that the wrong guy is getting the big contract. Not that I would turn down $5 million myself.

---

The Twins signed a 17-year-old Dominican shortstop prospect, although Javier Pimentel is a growing boy and may, as they say, outgrow the position. Whether he's a shortstop or some other position, it'll be a while before we know if the $575,000 was wisely spent.

Roster moves and Pavano speculation

The Twins on Friday added four players to the 40-man roster, which now stands at 38. This gives them room to sign a couple of free agents (remember, their 10 free agents are not on the 40) or make a Rule 5 pick, but my guess is that they won't try the latter.

None of the four -- one pitcher, two outfielders and a first basemn/outfielder -- are particularly likely to make the 25-man roster out of spring training, or even during the season. Chris Parmalee, former first-round pick, is long-term Justin Morneau insurance at first base, but the Twins have signed minor-league vet Justin Huber to a minor league deal, and Huber is the better immediate bet if Morneau's return stalls this spring. (The even better immediate bet is the Michael Cuddyer-at-first routine, but as the roster stands that would leave a hole at DH.)

Seth Stohs is at least mildly surprised that relief prospect Kyle Waldrop didn't get added, but that's been in the cards since Waldrop signed a minor-league deal earlier this month. He may be a Rule 5 draft target next month.

The free-agent market at this point is rather frozen as we await the deadline for offering arbitration; I believe that's Tuesday. Leaving two open spaces on the 40 doesn't necessarily limit the Twins to two arbitration offers to free agents, but if they offer to three and all three accept, they'll have to get rid of somebody.

But while few are signing, there's no shortage of speculation, and Carl Pavano is prominent in said speculation.

Here's some speculation that points to him staying with the Twins. Here's some that suggests that the Brewers and Nationals are better bets to land him. Milwaukee seems more plausible than Washington; I can't imagine how a mid-30s middle-of-the-rotation guy fits in a building process.The Brewers, on the other hand, are capable of contending if they can find a way to get some outs. Pavano makes sense for them, at least in the short term.

And the short term is the only term that makes sense with Pavano for anybody. My view is unchanged: If it's going to take a multi-year deal to retain him, the Twins should wish him well and walk away.

Something may happen with Pavano sooner rather than later. Normally the second and third best pitchers on the market are seen as reasonable consolation prizes for the suitors for the No. 1 free agent arm, but there's a big gap between Cliff Lee and the rest of the field, and we can be pretty sure the Yankees aren't turning to Pavano if Lee decides to stay closer to his Arkansas home. There's not a lot of reason for Pavano to stall.

Free agent arbitration: Carl Pavano

2011 age: 35

Free agent classification: Type A

2010 basic stats: 17-11, 3.75 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $7 million

The Outsider's verdict: Yes

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The free agent field for starting pitchers this offseason can be divided into two parts. There's Cliff Lee, and then there's everybody else.

Carl Pavano's
spring-training mug
doesn't display the
moustache that made
him a folk hero in 2010.

Carl Pavano might be the most accomplished pitcher in the second group, but that doesn't mean there ought to be great demand for his services.

The ideal outcome here for the Twins would be for somebody else to step up with the multi-year deal Pavano sought last winter and concluded wasn't forthcoming.

In 2009, Pavano struck out 6.6 men per nine innings. In 2010, his K-rate fell to 4.8. That's a red flag. It tells us his arrow is pointing down.

A three-year deal at $10 million at year -- and that's the kind of figure that's been tossed about -- with a 35-year-old with his injury history and a declining K-rate is bad thinking.

The risk of offering arbitration here, especially considering that most teams that would consider signing such a veteran would have to surrender their first-round draft pick, is that Pavano could reach the same conclusion he reached last winter and accept it. I suspect that somebody is going to take the 17 wins and 3.75 ERA more seriously than the strikeout rate and outbid the Twins for him.

Which would be fine with me. I'd rather see the Twins with an extra draft pick next June than Pavano in the rotation.

Playing with match-ups

Francisco Liriano has allowed
0.3 home runs per nine innings

As I've alluded to a couple of times, I've been fighting a virus of late. The Monday print column — on how this year's projected Twins playoff rotation matches up better with the Yankees (and Rays) than previous versions — was cobbled together in pieces over a three-day span, Thursday-Saturday, as I had the energy to focus.

There's always a risk in that — the risk that events between the writing and the publication will make the writer appear at least a bit foolish.

So naturally, the Twins' big three of Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing, pitching Friday-Sunday, combined for three poor statistical starts:

• Liriano allowed a home run and more fly balls than grounders; he got just nine outs.
• Pavano surrendered three longballs (and seven runs on 11 hits) in four innings.
• Duensing walked four men and allowed two homers, five runs.

Does this undermine my thesis? Not really.

• Liriano's outing I discount because of his illness. 
• Pavano's I discount because his start was pushed back eight days to set up the playoff rotation. 
• Duensing's line would look markedly better if Danny Valencia — who had an atrocious series defensively in Detroit — had made a clean play on a likely double-play grounder; he got an out, so there was no error, but the extra out set up the first, three-run, homer off Duensing.

All three figure to get another start in the regular season; this might be particularly important for getting Pavano back into his regular routine. Certainly all three need to pitch more effectively once the calendar page is turned.

Twins rotation is well grounded

Brian Duensing has induced 14 groundball double plays
in 113 innings ptiched this season.

Brian Duesning went six innings Wednesday night against the Chicago White Sox — 18 outs. Four strikeouts, five fly balls, nine ground balls (including two double plays).

Duensing, as noted in a previous post, has been pretty good at keeping the ball in the park this year (the homer Wednesday by Carlos Quentin was Duensing's eighth gopher ball, not a bad number for 113 innings). Avoiding the home run is generally a characteristic of ground ball pitchers.

And sure enough, of the 68 American League pitchers with 100 or more innings pitched, Duensing has the 10th highest ground ball/fly ball ratio.

What surprised me, however, is that he's not alone on the Twins staff in being a ground ball pitcher.

Francisco Liriano is fourth, with 1.29 grounders to every fly ball. Duensing is 10th (1.15), Carl Pavano 11 (1.14) and Nick Blackburn is 13th (1.09).

The Twins have traditionally built their rotations around fly ball pitchers, from Bert Blyleven and Frank Viola to Johan Santana and Brad Radke. They've generally had a "sinker" specialist in the rotation, the best of them being Scott Erickson, but the organizational emphasis on change ups tends to result in fly ball pitchers.

Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey live up to that tradition (Slowey is 68th, last on that list). But this rotation is more of a ground ball staff than we're used to seeing.

---

A couple of links that, to appropriate a non-word from a retired Free Press colleague, you might find recommendable:

• USA Today on Wednesday ran this piece on Carl Pavano and Delmon Young, depicting them as baseball outcasts who found a home with the Twins.  I'm not sure I buy the writer's thesis.

The conclusion is noteworthy, however — not so much for this year as next:

Add it up, and Pavano could again be a hot commodity on the free agent market this winter, though he says his preference is to stay in Minnesota, and the Twins do not want him going anywhere.

"You can spend your whole career looking for a place like this and never finding it," Pavano says. "I know they're counting on me. I know they're counting on Delmon, too. I can't tell you how good it feels to be counted on again."

It's too soon for me to do heavy thinking about the 2011 roster, but if Pavano wants to stay and the Twins want to keep him, it will happen — in which case I count six guys for the rotation.

• Here is Bill James on — well, on cheating and the American way of life.

Pavano, pitching

Sunday's was likely the best start Carl Pavano will have all year. It was hardly his first, or only strong outing.

One of the frequent rationales offered for signing a veteran starter is that he serves as a mentor to the younger pitchers. True or not, it has to be said that Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn have not improved with Pavano as a teammate, and in some ways appear to have regressed.

But Pavano is earning his keep on the days he starts. I don't have a serious problem with the "quality start" stat, but I have a slightly stricter standard for it in my mind -- six or more innings pitched with a game ERA under 4. (Six innings with three earned runs is a "quality start" by the conventional standard; my standard requires six inning of two earned runs or seven innings of three.)

By either standard, Pavano has racked up 10 quality starts in 14 tries. That's a very solid performance. Only seven American League pitchers have more conventional QS than Pavano.

He's fifth in the league this morning in innings pitched and sixth in WHIP -- Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched --largely because he walks about one man per nine innings. The strikeout rate is unimpressive but acceptable, and he's been vulnerable to the home run (11 so far).

He's had two lousy starts, two mediocre starts (if eight innings and four runs is mediocre) and, obviously 10 good ones. Not an ace, but a good starting pitcher.

And, given that I haven't shaved my upper lip since May 1975, I can't even beef about his moustache.