Thoughts from the weekend

Taking three of four from a quality team -- and the Tampa Bay Rays are a quality team -- can give a fan base something to smile about.

Seeing a bullpen meltdown turn an easy win into a close win can give a fan base something to fret about.

The Twins do have an off day now, so going through four relievers in three innings after cutting back a pitcher shouldn't be a problem. But I'm sure Rocco Baldelli would have preferred to give Taylor Rogers another day without work.

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Taylor Rogers has an identical twin brother, Tyler, who pitches in Triple A for the Giants and has never gotten a callup.

There are differences in these identical Twins, not least of which is that Tyler is right-handed. And there must be a reason the Giants, who have had a few bullpen problems in recent years, haven't brought Tyler up.

Still, I frequently think while watching Taylor carve up batters for an inning or two: There's another Rogers brother who's probably available.

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The Twins optioned out Zack Littell on Sunday and reactivated Mitch Garver from the injured list (Garver caught and led off). After the game, they optioned out Luis Arraez with a coresponding move to come Tuesday, almost certainly reactivating Nelson Cruz.

How long will the Twins go with 12 pitchers rather than 13? They do have two offdays in eight days -- today and next Monday -- and the six games in between come against two of the three least potent lineups in the American League in Cleveland and Detroit. But I doubt this is a permanent condition.

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The draft begins tonight, and the Twins pick 13th. I have seen no consensus in mock drafts on who the Twins are likely to take, but it's likely to be a hitter. Two names connected to the 13th pick with some frequency: Shea Langeliers, a catcher from Baylor who has slid a bit this spring, and Keoni Cavaco, a high school infielder who has risen sharply as the spring progressed.

I'm not qualified to have an opinion. I will note that the Twins last summer picked a bunch of potential catchers. Drafting for need in the first round is always a mistake regardless of the sport, and quality catchers are hard to come up with, so Langeliers wouldn't be a shocker, but the Twins right now seem pretty deep in catchers.

Feeling a draft: Recapping Day 2

Jake Reed worked out of the bullpen for the Oregon
Ducks this year, but he was a starter for two years first.

A rather odd second day of the draft for the Twins as they went really heavy on college relief pitchers.

They did this in 2012, when they loaded up on the likes of Luke Bard (supplemental round), Mason Melotakis (second round), J.T Chargois (second round), Zach Jones (fourth round), Tyler Duffey (fifth round) ... Power arms, all of them, and used out of the bullpen by their college coaches.

Left-hander Sam Clay reacts
after getting the final out of the ACC
championship game for Georgia Tech.

The Twins tried some of these guys as starters, and the results have been mixed at best. Bard and Chargois have barely pitched at all because of injuries, and Jones had surgery this winter for a shoulder aneurysm. Melotakis, after spending most of 2013 in the Cedar Rapids rotation, has been mainly relieving in Fort Myers. Duffey has pushed his way up to Double A and has been strictly a starter to date this year.

Between Thursday's second round and Friday's picks, the Twins took five college bullpen arms in a row.

Thursday: Nick Burdi.
Friday, 3rd round: Michael Cederoth (San Diego State)
4th round: Sam Clay (Georgia Tech)
5th round: Jake Reed (Oregon)
6th round: John Curtiss (Texas)

I expect they'll try some of those guys as starters. Curtiss was probably relieving for the Longhorns in part this year because he's still recovering from significant surgeries as a sophomore (both Tommy John and the removal of a rib). Reed started for two years for Oregon State become taking the closers job as a junior.

The Twins took three more college pitchers, all of whom were starters, in the seventh, eighth and ninth rounds. So far they've taken just two position players, one of them in the first round.

This was seen as a pitching-heavy draft, and the Twins sure went heavy on the pitchers.

Today the draft goes though the final 20 rounds. The Twins might sign about half those picks, and the odds are that they'll be "organization guys" — players they sign so that they have enough bodies to stock the lineups in the entry-level leagues.

Feeling a draft: Recapping Day 1

Nick Gordon shakes hands with Commissioner Bud Selig
during the draft Thursday.

No drama for the Twins in the first round of the draft Thursday. As predicted in virtually every mock draft for a month, they took shortstop Nick Gordon. Despite my frets that Houston would gum up the works, the three big arms went 1-2-3 and the Cubs went with a cheaper college bat. Which left the Twins with the guy everybody figured they wanted.

If you read this blog regularly, you know what I know about Gordon: High school kid, expected to stick at shortstop, son of long-time big league pitcher Tom Gordon, brother of Dodgers second baseman Dee Gordon. He's not as fast as his older brother, but he's stronger and is expected to be a better hitter.

Nick Burdi is the closer for the Louisville
Cardinals, who will play in an NCAA
super regional this weekend

So Twins landed the consensus best shortstop in the draft field. They have not developed a quality shortstop on their own in a long time. The best shortstops in team history, at least since Zoilo Versalles (who came with the Twins from Washington) came from other organizations: Leo Cardenas from Cincinnati, Roy Smalley from Texas, Greg Gagne and Cristian Guzman from the Yankees, Jason Bartlett from San Diego, J.J. Hardy from Milwaukee.

The Twins spent their second round pick on another Nick: Nick Burdi, a right-handed reliever from the University of Louisville. Burdi fits a relatively recent trend for the Twins in the draft: a collegiate power arm who has been used primarily in relief. Burdi is said to have hit triple digits on the radar guns on occasion.

The Twins drafted a number of guys in this mold in 2012 with the intent of trying some of them as starters (which is, apparently, not the plan with Burdi). The returns have been mixed at best. A couple of those power arms (Luke Bard and J.T. Chargois) have been injured more often than not. Nobody has pushed their way to the majors, or to the brink of the majors.

And that's it for the Twins on the first night of the draft. Today will be rounds 3-10, and it's fairly significant. The remaining 20 rounds are on Saturday, and that's largely organization filler.

Feeling a draft: Early afternoon edition

Last one of these posts before I head off to (pretend to) work ...

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com each posted their mock drafts. Surprise: They both have the Twins taking Nick Gordon.

Callis gets there with Brady Aiken (Astros), Carlos Rodon (Marlins), Tyler Kolek (White Sox) and Michael Conforto (Cubs) going ahead of Gordon; Mayo's first three are the same, but he see the Cubs taking Kyle Schwarber. Both have Alex Jackson and Aaron Nola slipping past the Twins to the Mariners and Phillies.

Keith Law said in his weekly chat that he's hearing the Twins aren't as set on Gordon as he thought, with Kolek a legit possibility should be reach No. 5.

And, finally, John Sickles did what he called a "thought experiment" based on the premise I had in my previous post — that the Astros take Gordon with the first overall pick. Sickles' notion is that the Twins would go with Aaron Nola if available, Sean Newcomb if Nola isn't. He has Kolek sliding past the Twins.

What I expect: All these people who spend far more time than I do scouting and talking to scouts are convinced the Twins will take Gordon. Who am I to dispute that?

Feeling a draft: Mid-morning edition

Baseball America's mock draft 5.0 still has the Twins taking Nick Gordon, and called it "The pick the industry seemed most sure about."

What would most likely get in the way of it, BA says, is Houston or the Cubs making a below slot deal with Gordon. I doubt it with the Cubs, since they pick just one slot ahead of the Twins, but Houston I can see. The Astros did this in 2012, the Byron Buxton draft, with Carlos Correia.

My completely uninformed gut says Houston's front office really wants to make that kind of pick if only because they want to make sure everybody knows they're the smartest guy in the room. If they really want to, they will. It might not be Gordon; it might be Aaron Nola. If Tyler Kolek believes he's sliding, he might be the guy who says yes to a significantly-below-slot-for-the-first-pick offer that still figures to be higher than the money going to the seventh pick.

But Gordon's the most likely target in my eyes for such a scenario. 

And I really haven't seen a mock that starts with that notion.

Feeling a draft: Dawn edition

That annual baseball anti-climax popularly known as the amateur draft gets started this evening — 6 Central on MLB Network and MLB.com — with high school shortstop Nick Gordon apparently still the consensus pick for the Minnesota Twins at No. 5.

Which would be fine by me. What's interesting/worrisome is that there seems to be a lot of ways the mock drafters get to that point.

ESPN's Keith Law last night on Baseball Tonight said Tyler Kolek, the Texas prep right-hander deemed the highest velocity arm in a draft field at least since Nolan Ryan (who was in the first draft in 1965), is sliding down the boards. When Law and others started issuing mock drafts about a month ago, Kolek was a consensus top-three pick; now Law has him going seventh. (Law, again, had the Twins taking Gordon).

Kolek's slide, if it is indeed happening, fits the internal history of the draft. No prep right-hander has ever gone 1-1. (Two prep lefties have, David Clyde and Brian Taylor, and they became cautionary tales, not stars.) I saw a line a week or so ago from an unnamed veteran of the scouting game to the effect of "High school pitchers shine on the field, college pitchers shine in the draft room." Meaning that when the execs start balancing potential with cost, the older pitchers whose futures appears more certain look like the better bet.

Kolek is a big body with off-the-charts velocity. Not everyone is sold on his athleticism and his command, and there is a growing belief that an 18-year-old throwing 100 consistently is an surgery waiting to happen.

Still ... Law last night had the White Sox (pick No. 3) taking LSU's Aaron Nola. Nola is certainly going to go Top 10 at the least; he may well be the safest pick in this draft field. He may also be the lowest-payoff ticket in this lottery. I find it difficult to believe the Sox would pass on Kolek to take Nola, even if they believe Nola will be in the majors this summer.

I expect to see mocks this morning from Baseball America's John Manuel and MLB.com's Jim Callis, and probably one or two others, and will comment accordingly.

Feeling a draft: End of May

Baseball America on Friday issued Mock Draft 4.0. It still has the Twins selecting high school shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth overall pick.

What's more intriguing to me is the growing sense I'm picking up, from BA and elsewhere, that the Houston Astros — picking first for the third straight year — don't see a $6 million talent in the draft field. If so, that suggests that the Astros may do as they did in 2012 — strike a pre-draft deal with someone projected to go a good bit lower at a price well below slot and aim to spend the surplus on more difficult signs in later rounds.

One of the names bandied about as a potential target for such an approach is ... high school shortstop Nick Gordon.

Baseball America says the Twins are also considering college left-handed pitcher Sean Newcomb of Hartford with the fifth pick. I would have thought Aaron Nola of LSU, a right-handed pitcher, would be more in the Twins wheelhouse.

For what it's worth, Keith Law of ESPN, in his weekly chat, dismissed the notion of the Astros going for Gordon.

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This from the esteemed Jim Crikket in Cedar Rapids, Iowa:

Twins GM Terry Ryan is in the house. Hearing he may be here in CR through this homestand. Really good to see him.
— JimCrikket (@JimCrikket) May 29, 2014

I've been wondering about Ryan's status. It was reported a couple weeks or so ago that he had finished his radiation treatments for his cancer but had yet to regain his appetite and was not ready to return to full duty as general manager.

And Rob Antony, the assistant general manager, continues to be the front office guy doing the regular press briefings.

That Ryan is in Cedar Rapids this weekend is noteworthy on this point: This is the time when the scouting department gets serious about its draft list. It is my understanding that Ryan makes a point of staying out of the way in this process anyway — as general manager, he might make a trip to see somebody for the first round, but he's not seeing the kids who might go in Round 8 or 18. With the cancer thing going on this spring, he probably is even more out of the loop on the prospects than usual.

Notes, quotes and comment

Danny Valencia is hitting over .300
so far for Kansas City, but most of
his playing time has come against
left-handers.

Important if true: Mike Berardino, the Pioneer Press beat writer who is also a Baseball America alumnus, says BA's mock draft 3.0 will project the Twins taking Tyler Kolek with the fifth overall pick June 5.

That would be the first mock draft to diverge from the Nick Gordon-to-the-Twins scenario, and an indication that BA's reporting suggests that scouting directors are truly leery of the health risks posed by truly high-velocity high schoolers. Kolek is regarded as the hardest-throwing prep pitcher of the draft era, which opened in 1965 with a guy named Nolan Ryan in the field.

No prep right-hander has ever gone 1-1, and if Kolek doesn't I don't know what it will take for it to happen.

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Former Twins third baseman Danny Valencia, on his third organization since washing out in Minnesota, figures to get regular playing time in Kansas City. The Royals shipped stalled prospect Mike Moustakas back to Triple A Thursday.

Valencia has put up a slash line of .308/.362/.423 with K.C., but that's not only in limited at-bats, it's come mostly against lefties. Right-handers have always turned off his faucet. Valencia would be a more useful player if platooning were common, but it ain't the seventies.

The Royals entered the season with playoff ambitions. Moustakas' failure dampens those ambitions. Valencia as a full-time player will dampen them further.

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It took the Dodgers a couple of days, but they released ear-chomping catcher Miguel Olivo on Thursday evening.

Perhaps there were procedural issues behind the delay, but canning Olivo had to happen. I expected it to come much sooner than it did.

I note that the original stories all cited Scott Boras, the high-powered agent whose client list includes the chompee (Alex Guerrero), as the source for the information about the chomping. I wonder if Boras went public quickly because he knew the Dodgers hoped to downplay the incident rather than lose a piece of catching depth.

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A big ouch: Prince Fielder figures to have spinal fusion surgery in his neck. If so, he will miss the remainder of the season.

I don't know enough about such things to guess at how much it will affect his play in future years. Fielder has seven years and more than $160 million left on his contract, which Texas inherited from Detroit; the Tigers will pay part of that, but on the whole Dave Drombowski, the Detroit GM, is looking really bright in moving Fielder off his payroll last winter.

Feelin' a draft: Mid May edition

The major league entry draft is coming up -- first round is June 5.

I've seen four mock drafts in the past week or so, all from pretty knowledgeable sources (Keith Law of ESPN, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com and two from Baseball America).

All four have the Twins getting high school shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth pick of the first round. What's interesting -- and indicative, perhaps, of how locked in the Twins appear to be on Gordon -- is that they all get to that point with different routes.

Oh, they all have left-handed pitchers Carlos Rodon (North Carolina State) and Brady Aiken (high schooler from San Diego) going before the Twins pick. Most of the mock drafts also have high school catcher-outfielder Alex Jackson and/or prep right-hander Tyler Kolek -- reputed to have the highest velocity of the draft era, which (barely) includes Nolan Ryan -- in front of the the Twins.

Those are, really, the five names for the first round that matter for the Twins. It's entirely possible that more than one of those five will reach the Twins, maybe probable, because the Cubs (pick No.4) are said to be intent on a collegiate starter as opposed to anybody from a high school. The Cubs have a wave of impressive position players rising through their system and would like a pitcher who'd be ready to help when that wave hits Wrigley in the next two years. But there's only one college pitcher in that list of five, and there's Rodon is likely to go in the first two picks.

Feelin' a draft (April edition)

Carlos Rodon's draft stock
has apparently slipped in the
past few months, but he's still
expected to be a high pick in June.

Baseball's amateur draft is a bit less than two months away. The Twins have the fifth overall pick. What's the outlook?

The issue of Baseball America that showed up in my mailbox Tuesday has BA's "midseason update" on draft prospects. As was the case when the college season began in February, this year's crop appears heavier on pitchers than on position players.

But the guy who was expected to top everybody's draft list has apparently sagged.

The word last summer was that if Carlos Rodon, a left-handed pitcher for North Carolina State, had been eligible, he would have been the first overall selection. He was the preseason consensus as the top prospect for this year.

But his fastball velocity has dropped off — 89-92 now, compared to 92-96 as a freshman and sophomore for the Wolfpack, according to BA. His command has diminished as well. He's throwing his slider more, and scouts probably weren't pleased when he threw more than 130 pitches on shorter-than-usual rest last weekend.

BA's current ranking of the top 50 prospects has Rodon third, behind a pair of high school pitchers, Brady Aiken (lefty from San Diego) and Tyler Kolek (righty from Shepherd, Texas).

No high school right-hander has ever gone 1-1, but Kolek is said to have hit 100 mph on the radar guns repeatedly. (This is not necessarily a good thing; an 18-year-old's arm is probably not capable of handling that kind of exertion, Bob Feller being the exception.)

There is only one position player in BA's top eight. Odds are that the Twins will be taking a pitcher with that fifth pick. Which one? Well, there are four teams that have something to say about that before the Twins get to speak their piece, and a lot of baseball to be played (and pitches to be thrown) before that.

Feeling a draft: Day two

Casey Stengel said it in explaining why the Mets took a catcher with their first pick of the expansion draft more than 50 years ago: If you don't have a catcher, you have a lot of passed balls.

In the first 10 rounds of the draft, the Twins selected six pitchers, three catchers and a third baseman. A lot of pitchers was expected. A lot of catchers, not so much.

That the Twins plucked a catcher every third round (third round, Stuart Turner of Ole Miss; sixth round, Brian Navarreto of Arlington County Day School (Fla); ninth round, Mitchell Garver of New Mexico) is striking. Presumably the Twins deliberately sought catchers, probably because of a perceived organizational need.

Which is an interesting idea, since the Twins have five catchers on their 40-man major league roster (Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, Drew Butera, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto), which is a lot. Of course, by the time any of Friday's three draftees are ready for the majors, Doumit will have been eligible for free agency and I suspect at least one of the Butera/Herrmann duo will have been moved along to another organization.

When we talk the future of Twins catching, the question of Mauer's future always arises. Will he remain primarily a catcher all his career? If not, when (and to where) will he be moved? And do the Twins have a potential replacement on hand? The only possible regular catcher I see in the Twins farm system right now is Pinto, who appears to have the bat but perhaps not the defensive chops for regular play.


If nothing else, drafting a handful of catchers on the second day of the draft gives the Twins a chance to, as Branch Rickey phrased it, find quality out of quantity.

Feeling a draft: Rounds one and two

Ryan Eades of LSU was the Twins second round selection
Thursday. He's represented by Scott Boras.

The Twins, like most organizations, have certain patterns in the amateur draft. The Twins generally use their high picks on high school position players -- particularly outfielders -- or college pitchers.

On Thursday, they broke that pattern with their first round pick for the second time in three years by taking Kohl Stewart, a high school pitcher. (In 2011 they took a college shortstop, Levi Michael.)

Stewart's selection has been expected literally for weeks; the Twins had long been seen around baseball as locked in on him. He's a 6-foot-3 righthander who was also a prime quarterback recruit who had signed with Texas A&M. But there's not likely to be any real difficulty getting Stewart to abandon pigskin for hardball. This is a high-risk, high-reward selection, but the risk is not in signability.

Stewart is, as an 18-year-old, less mature and refined than the two college pitchers (Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray) who went 1.1 and 1.3 Thursday evening. But he's also regarded as more athletic than either and with a ceiling no lower than the elder two.

A high school pitcher is generally riskier than a collegian, and the high school pitchers taken in the first round have at best a checkered history. Guys who throw with high velocity in their teens tend to get hurt. Stewart's physical risk is perhaps heightened by his Type 1 diabetes.

As for his stuff: He's described as having a mid-90s fastball, a slider in the mid 80s that he uses as his out pitch, and a changeup that the Twins say is his best secondary pitch. He also has a curve ball that still needs some development but is definitely distinct from his slider (many young pitchers trying to throw both wind up with two mediocre "slurves"). He's working on a hard sinker, which suggests that the fastball is a four-seamer. Durability within games is said to be an issue, which, again, is no surprise.

Command is also an issue, but as Keith Law said on Twitter, if he had plus command right now, he'd have been the No.1 overall pick, which no high school right-hander has ever been.

In the second round, the Twins reverted to type and took a college pitcher with the 43rd overall pick: Ryan Eades, a right-hander from Louisiana State. He had labrum surgery as a high-schooler. He's 8-1, 2.81 this year for LSU, 77 strikeouts and 30 walks in 96 innings, with super-regional play coming up this weekend against Oklahoma.

Presumably the Twins are confident the shoulder issue that turned him into a first baseman for his senior year in high school is no longer a factor. His fast ball is clocked in the low 90s and his best pitch is said to be his curve. To become an effective major league starter, he'll need a third pitch (probably a change up).

Between his slender frame (6-3, 198), his injury history and his limited repertoire, I suspect Eades may wind up in the bullpen. But the Twins will certainly try him as a starter first.

Rounds 3 through 10 are today; Rounds 11 through 40 are Saturday.

Feeling a draft: Morning edition

It's finally draft day.

There's been a lot of rumor and speculation, but when the draft gets going (6 p.m. CDT), I think everybody's going to play it straight. This is not a year to get clever. Houston will take either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray, whoever they like more (or whoever will sign for less, which isn't a bad tiebreaker); the Cubs will take whichever one the Astros don't; Colorado will take Kris Bryant; and the Twins will take Kohl Stewart.

That's what the conventional wisdom says should happen, and what I expect will happen. If Houston tries to reprise last year's financial sleight of hand, it will be a mistake. This isn't as deep a draft class as last year's; there's no real need to save big money early in the draft to spend later, because the later picks aren't worth passing on the few top talents available.

That's how I read the available information, at least. The Astros may see things differently. And if they're out to prove how tricky they are, it's possible that one of the Appel/Gray duo will fall to the Twins. Pretty much everyone has the Twins zeroed in on Stewart, but it's not easy for me to imagine the Twins passing on one of the big two college arms to take the high schooler.

We'll find out tonight.

Notes, quotes and comment

Clete Thomas' slash
line with the Twins
in 2012: .143/.172/
.286, with 16 strikeouts
in 29 plate appearances.

The Twins will fill the 25-man roster spot they opened after Sunday's game with Clete Thomas, an outfielder who got some time with the Twins last year after the Tigers waived him. To make room on the 40 for Thomas, they designated Tyler Robertson for assignment.

I'm not impressed with this move. Remember, it is my belief that everything the Twins do should have 2014 (or even further out) as the primary concern. Thomas is 29 and nothing more than a marginal player. There is no long-term purpose to giving him playing time. The only immediate benefit to giving him PT would be from sitting Aaron Hicks against righties, and that would be counterproductive to the long term goals.

Thomas has had a very productive April and May for Rochester (.296/.385/.576), but there's nothing in his track record that says he's that good.

Not that the possibility of losing Robertson concerns me very much. He's left-handed and breathing, a combination that gives him a chance. He's also a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY) who isn't consistent with his breaking ball, a combination that wrecks chances.

Tyler Robertson
opened the season
with the Twins but
was sent out after
two appearances.

He had a 3.05 ERA in Rochester, which looks OK, but he walked 16 men in 20.2 innings, which is definitely not OK.

The Twins now have 10 days to dispose of Robertson's contract. Somebody may claim him on waivers — he is, after all, left-handed and breathing — but I wouldn't be surprised if he clears waivers and remains in the Twins system.

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Joe Mauer returned to the No. 2 spot in the batting order during the series with Seattle, and Ron Gardenhire indicated that he'll stay there because he gets more RBI chances as the No. 2 hitter.

Right decision, wrong reason.

Consider the three guys hitting in front of Mauer on Sunday: Hicks (on-base percentage .246); Pedro Florimon (.331, which is much better than I expected); and Eduardo Escobar (.274). Drop Mauer to the third hole, and the three hitters are probably going to be Florimon, Escobar and either Hicks or Brian Dozier (.276).

Not a lot of RBI opportunities either way.

No, the gain from hitting Mauer second is more plate appearances for Mauer, Josh Willingham, etc. as the middle of the lineup moves up, and fewer plate appearances for one of the outmakers.

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Reports Sunday evening had two prominent collegiate pitching prospects in this week's draft field testing positive for a banned stimulant. One of them is Jonathan Gray, the Oklahoma right-hander generally seen as one of the top two prospects in the field; the other, Aaron Blair of Marshall, is No. 41 in Baseball America's draft list, which would put him high in the second round.

BA doesn't expect the test results to affect either man's draft status.

Feeling a draft: Five days to go

Jonathan Gray has emerged this spring as a prime candidate
to be the first overall pick in the MLB draft next week. Some
mock drafts say the Twins will have a chance to take him
with the fourth overall pick.

The baseball draft isn't as intensely anticipated as the NFL draft or even the NBA draft — and for good reason, since the high picks in those drafts will go directly into starting lineups and the high picks in the MLB draft will go directly to the minor leagues.

But for those of us who care, there are plenty of mock drafts to mimic that speculation.

The consensus of the most prominent baseball mock drafters has the Twins selecting Kohl Stewart, a high school right-handed pitcher from Texas. Stewart is also a prime football recruit (a quarterback signed with Texas A&M), and, apparently, a Type 1 diabetic. But he's considered signable (if he does go to A&M to play quarterback, he'll be stuck behind the defending Heisman Trophy winner, and he'll have turned down several million for the privilege), and the Twins don't seem too concerned about the diabetes.

The mock drafters don't agree on how the Twins will get to Stewart.

Keith Law of ESPN apparently believes the Houston Astros (with the first pick) will attempt to reprise last summer's budgetary strategy and use the first pick on a cheaper sign in order to save draft pool share for later rounds. (I say apparently because I'm too cheap to pop for Insider status on ESPN.com and thus don't have direct access to Law's reasoning.)

Jim Callis of Baseball America thinks the Astros will play it straight and select one of the two college pitchers generally deemed the prizes of this draft class, Mark Appel of Stanford or Jonathan Gray of Oklahoma.

If Law's right on the Astros' plan, the Twins will have a choice between Stewart and Gray. Off what I know — and I don't know as much as the Twins scouting staff does — it's hard for me to imagine the Twins passing on Gray if he falls to No. 4.

Feeling a draft: February edition

The Twins have the fourth pick in June's draft, and with the college season getting under way it's worth taking a quick look at the chatter about who might be their pick.

Last year, of course, the Twins had the second pick and, despite their need for power arms, used that pick on prep outfielder Byron Buxton, regarded as the top overall talent in the pool.

The hope, then and now, was that the Twins would be able to focus on high-level pitching prospects this time around. But the outlook right now isn't good.

As matters stand, Baseball America says, the first three picks are likely to be a trio of college pitchers — righty Mark Appel of Stanford (who was in the mix for the No. 1 pick last year, slipped to No. 8 and declined to sign with Pittsburgh); lefty Sean Manaea of Indiana State; and righty Ryan Stanek of Arkansas.

Behind them are a couple of high school outfielders from Logansville, Ga., Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier. The Twins system has plenty of toolsy outfielders, so the Georgians aren't a particularly good fit for them.

A lot can happen between February and June, of course. Last February BA had a five-player list of candidates for the top slot; the two college pitchers who wound up going highest, Kevin Glausman and Kyle Zimmer, weren't among the five.

The Twins would certainly welcome another pitcher emerging from the pack toward the top of the heap.

The fourth pick in the draft

Ryan Zimmerman was the fourth
overall pick in 2005.

Tuesday's post on Mark Teixeira mentioned in passing that Gavin Floyd was the fourth overall pick in the 2001 amateur draft. That always surprises me; I forget that Floyd was taken before Teixeira.

I assume that when the Phillies took Floyd, they did so in the hopes that he would mature into a front-of-the-rotation starter. He didn't, but he did become a reliable 30-start, 190-innings, 4.00-ERA guy, and that's valuable. (Didn't help the Phillies much; they traded him and Gio Gonzalez to the White Sox for Freddie Garcia after the 2006 season. Floyd has 63 wins with the Sox; Garcia went 1-5 in his one season with the Phillies.)

So ... question: Is a Gavin Floyd a good return for a No. 4 pick?

This is a relevant question for Twins fans because Minnesota has the No. 4 pick in next June's draft.

Since we already know 2001, we'll start there and move forward, using Baseball Reference's version of WAR as a rough overall measure of career value:

2001: Floyd, Philadelphia, RHP, 13.9 WAR
2002: Adam Lowen, Baltimore, LHP/OF, 0.4 WAR. Washed out as a pitcher, now an outfielder who has reached Triple A but hasn't cracked the show as a hitter.
2003: Tim Stauffer, San Diego, RHP, 2.5 WAR. Made 31 starts in 2011, just one this year.
2004: Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay, RHP, 3.4 WAR. Cracked the Rays rotation in 2009, record somewhat  similar to Floyd's, but less durable.
2005: Ryan Zimmerman, Washington, 3B, 28.7 WAR. Finally something resembling a star player.
2006: Brad Lincoln, Pittsburgh, RHP, 0.0 WAR. Generic middle reliever.
2007: Daniel Moskos, Pittsburgh, LHP, 0.2 WAR. 31 games and 24.2 innings of relief in 2011.
2008: Brian Matusz, Baltimore, LHP, 0.8 WAR. Pitching in relief in the playoffs, failing so far as a starter. Future may be in the bullpen.
2009: Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh, C. Hasn't reached the majors. Split 2012 between Double A and Triple A. Hasn't hit since 2010 in High A.
2010: Christian Colon, Kansas City, SS. Hasn't reached the majors. May not stick at shortstop. A handful of Triple A games. Didn't hit particularly well in Double-A.
2011: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore, RHP, 0.1 WAR. Reached majors for a couple of shutout innings this September at age 19. Eye-popping numbers at three minor league levels, being handled very gingerly by the O's. May top the prospect lists this offseason.
2012: Kevin Glausman, Baltimore, RHP: Has barely begun his pro career.

What do we have of out these 12 No. 4 picks? One standout position player in Zimmerman, two middle-rotation starters (Floyd and Niemann), one dazzling prospect (Bundy), and a bunch of question marks or busts.

This may say more about the scouting acumen in Pittsburgh and Baltimore (responsible for seven of the 12 picks) than of the talent available at that slot, but it's not an impressive track record. Floyd does look pretty good in this crowd, which may indicate how difficult it is to find and develop even a mid-rotation arm.

Sealing the draft

The deadline for signing 2012 draftees passed at 5 p.m. EDT Friday -- mustn't delay the weekend at the commissioner's office -- and the Twins had a few adventures on the final day.

First they signed Florida high school outfielder Zach Larson, their 20th round pick, for $190,000 -- $90,000 more than MLB allots for picks after round 10. The extra $90,000 was charged against the Twins' bonus pool, which had sufficient savings to cover that and then some.

They failed to come to terms with 9th rounder L.J. Mazzilli, which doesn't disturb me too much. As I posted earlier this month, amateur second basemen aren't particularly good bets. Major league second basemen are generally guys who moved there from other positions. 

Andre Martinez was ranked
404th in the draft pool by
Baseball America, but the
Twins took him with the
190th overall pick.

But the weirdest developments came with Andre Martinez, a prep lefty from Florida selected in the sixth round. He had been reported early on by Baseball America's Jim Callis as having signed an over-slot deal with the Twins ($260,000 against a slot value of $200,000). On Thursday, Callis tweeted:

An ‪#mlbdraft‬ "unsigning": Had reported a while back that ‪#Twins‬, 6th-rder Andre Martinez had agreed on $260k. Now told deal unlikely

The prospect of losing out on Martinez did bother me. He might have been the best pure starting pitcher talent the Twins took last month. He doesn't throw with the velocity of several other Twins picks, but most of them were collegians who pitched primarily out of the bullpen. And supplemental rounder J.O. Barrios, another high schooler, is a "short" righty (six feet). 

Martinez has a college commitment to Florida State, and Baseball America had hinted coming into the draft that he could be a difficult sign. Callis' Thursday tweet led me to suspect Martinez had chosen to gamble that three years at FSU would make him a first-round pick.

Wrong again, Eddie. After the deadline passed, Callis tweeted that Martinez had signed -- for $80,000.

Apparently there had been an agreement on $260,000, but Martinez's shoulder failed his pre-signing physical. Or at least it failed for $260,000. For $80,000, it was passable.

So the Twins emerged having spent $298,500 less than MLB had allotted for the draft. It is my understanding that, for this year only, those savings can be added to next year's draft pool.

----

The big deadline news was that Mark Appel declined to sign with Pittsburgh. Apparently $3.8 million, which is what the Pirates are believed to have offered, wasn't enough for him and agent Scott Boras.

Appel's going back to Stanford for his senior season, and he is, right now, atop the consensus draft board for 2013. But he was a plausible No.1 overall pick this year too, and fell to No. 8 because teams didn't think he was worth the price he was setting on his services. Even if he doesn't get hurt, the same might happen in 2013. It's a risky move on his part.

The Pirates will get the ninth pick next year in compensation for Appel's refusal.

Appel was the only first-rounder who didn't sign, although a handful of others went to the final day. Oddly, all but one of the first-round holdouts were collegians. 

Odd because the new draft rules, with the bonus pool and penalties for exceeding the allotment, were expected to make it more difficult to sign high school players. It's likely that several prep players fell in the draft on that basis. But there were five first round picks who went into the final day unsigned, and four  of them were collegians.

Prospect stuff

Monday opened the "international signing period," and the Twins inked Amaurys Minier, a 16-year-old Dominican, for $1.4 million -- about half their allotment under the new labor deal for international free agents this year.

Minier is a switch-hitter who is listed as a shortstop but generally reckoned to be destined (quickly) for another position. Baseball America ranks him as the No. 12 international prospect; MLB.com as the No. 4.

Twelve or four, he's 16. He's a long ways away from Target Field.

---

Miguel Sano reportedly committed three errors Monday night for Beloit, and that makes 31 E's for the super prospect. Seth Stohs astutely noted some time ago, back when there were Internet voices calling for Sano to move up to High A, that nobody who'd actually seen him play thought he was ready for a higher level.

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The deadline to sign 2012 draft picks is July 13, and the Twins have inked 12 of the 13 players they selected in the first 10 rounds. The only holdout, according to Baseball America, is L.J. Mazzilli, son of fomer big league player and manager Lee Mazzilli. The younger Mazzilli is a collegiate second baseman, selected in the ninth round.

While I'm sure the Twins would rather sign him than not, I'm not too concerned either way. As a rule, amateur second basemen don't make it to the majors. If you're an infielder talented enough to play in the majors, you were almost certainly a shortstop in amateur ball.

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I hesitate to mention this, because it means nothing -- nothing -- but Byron Buxton, the No.2 overall pick last month, is just 1-for-23 so far for the GCL Twins.

Draft post follow up

In my morning post today I predicted that the Twins would sign supplemental round pick Luke Bard.

Tonight, the Twins announced that they had done so.

Bard was part of an intriguing approach taken by the Twins in this draft: In search of power arms, they loaded up with hard-throwing collegiate relievers, with the stated intent of converting many, if not all, to starters.

I expressed some doubts about this approach at the time, but as I said, if the Twins are successful in turning one of these guys into a quality major league starter, it justifies the strategy. (Particularly so if some of those who don't make it as starters remain healthy enough to be effective bullpenners in the majors.)

Bard might be the best bet of the collegians to make it as a starter.