Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Rauch trade

Jon Rauch in 2009. He was Baseball
America's minor league player of the year
in 2000, when he was in the
Chicago White Sox organization.

When: Aug. 28, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Jon Rauch from Arizona for RHP Kevin Mulvey
Value: Rauch conributed 1.9 WAR for Minnesota in 2009-10. He had 9 win shares for the Twins in 210 and 7 total in 2009. Mulvey contributed just 26 innings to Arizona with a WAR of -0.3 and was designated for assignment in September. He may be a free agent. Rauch spent 2011 with Toronto and singed last week with the New York Mets as a free agent.
Twins motivation: Bullpen depth

As with Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano, Rauch was a late-season addition that worked. Mulvey, a piece of the Johan Santana deal, has not panned out as a prospect. Rauch went 5-1 with five holds down the stretch in 2009, then racked up 21 saves in about a half season as closer in 2010 when Joe Nathan blew out his elbow.

The Twins let him go as a free agent after 2010, and he spent 2011 with Toronto, where he had 11 saves (and five blown saves) with an ERA of 4.85.

It is, in retrospect, interesting how far Mulvey had fallen by the time of the trade and has continued to fall. When the Twins acquired him (just before spring training 2008), he was considered a nearly-ready middle-of-the-rotation prospect. A season-plus later, he was dealt even up for a middle reliever -- not something one does with a good starting prospect. And last summer, Mulvey was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. I don't know if he's still in their system or if he's a free agent.

The player to be named is named Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey, one of the pitchers the twins got in Johan Santana trade, is headed to Arizona as part of the Jon Rauch trade.

Judging from the above statement from the Twins, there's cash flowing in both directions as well, but that's probably a technicality. The trade was Rauch for Mulvey, and I'm fine with that. Happier with that than I was with Carl Pavano for Yohan Pino, because Rauch will be around next season.

Mulvey hadn't developed the way I, and I assume the Twins, expected he would when they got him. Here are his pro ball numbers. Note the slight regression while repeating Triple A this year. Almost exactly the same innings, but more walks, fewer strikeouts and a worse ERA. He certainly didn't improve.

Which is why it's Jeff Manship (above) getting the start today against the White Sox. It's not that the Twins expect Manship to be great; by all accounts, they think he's up too soon. But the Twins clearly had come to regard him as a better option than Mulvey.

The trade of Mulvey, coupled with the fact that Phil Humber has been dropped from the 40-man roster twice this season, breaks the direct take from the Santana trade down to Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, although the Twins now have Rauch as a spinoff. Guerra has at least had a decent bounce-back season after a rough 2008 — note the vastly improved walk and strikeout rates.

Back to 12 pitchers

The Twins will open the "second half" of the season with 12 pitchers again. Kevin Mulvey comes up, No. 3 catcher Jose Morales goes down.

I've alluded to this before, but I'll repeat myself anyway: Morales does more to help the Twins win games than a No. 7 relief pitcher does.

It would be one thing if they were adding a solid 8th-inning power arm, somebody to ease the burden on Matt Guerrier and Jose Mijares in the late set-up role. But Mulvey is to pitch long relief. Which is the preferred roles of Brian Duensing and R.A. Dickey and maybe Bobby Keppel, although it sounds as if the Twins have a share of the late innings in mind for Keppel. He's fared well so far, but I remain skeptical.

Mulvey's numbers in Triple A this season are a bit worse than last season's, and certainly not anything demanding a call-up.

Here's the deal, folks: The more often Duensing and Mulvey are used, the worse the Twins are doing. They are not guys they want to use in winnable games. The more of that kind of pitcher they have around, the more likely they are to have to use them in winnable games.