Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: The Hardy-Hoey trade

J.J. Hardy was charged with 11 errors in 2010
with the Twins, six in 2011 with Baltimore.

When: Dec. 9, 2010
What: The Twins traded shortstop J.J. Hardy, infielder Brendan Harris and cash to Baltimore for right-handed pitchers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Value: Hardy is credited with 22 win shares and 4.1 WAR in 2011; Hoey with zero WS and -0.4 WAR. Neither Harris nor Jacobson played in the majors in 2011. Hardy, who turned 29 in August, signed a three-year deal with the Orioles during the 2011 season. Hoey was sold to Toronto this offseason in a waiver deal. Harris is a free agent. Jacobson remains in the Twins system.
Twins motivation: A combination of payroll cutting, adding velocity-oriented bullpen options and the belief that Hardy didn't fit Target Field/wasn't as good as his 2007-08 seasons indicate/was readily replaceable.

As with the Capps-Ramos trade discussed here last week, it would be difficult to make this deal turn out any worse for the Twins than it did in 2011.

Jim Hoey allowed
four homers in
24.2 innings in 2011.

Hoey indeed had a high-velocity fast ball. But he lacked a useful secondary pitch and command and movement on the fastball, which made him imminently hittable and, ultimately, not the successor to the LaTroy Hawkins-Jesse Crain line of middle-relief power arms.

And Hardy had the best offensive season of his rather inconsistent career.

Hardy had two good power seasons for Milwaukee in 2007-08, when he averaged 25 homers. But he fell off badly in 2009, and the Brewers traded him to make room for the younger, rangier and cheaper Alcedes Escobar (whom they later traded in the Zach Greinke deal). With the Twins, Hardy again didn't hit for the anticipated power (six homers) and was limited to 95 starts at shortstop in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota.

With Baltimore in 2011, he bopped 30 homers (and added 27 doubles). Zing!

One factor may be health. He had a hand injury early in the 2010 season and it was never fully healed. He implied last season that he had the same problem early in 2011 and the Orioles (unlike the Twins) medical staff was able to fix it.

Another factor may be ballparks. Home runs come easier in Camden Yards than in Target Field. And he plays more road games now in smaller yards, such as Fenway Park, than he did in the AL Central, where Detroit and Kansas City offer two other difficult places to hit long balls. He hit 15 homers home and road last season; in 2010, he hit one homer in Minnesota, five on the road.

What is Hardy's real level of offensive ability? He has in 2007-11 three seasons of 26, 24 and 30 homers; he also has seasons of 6 and 11. Much of his offensive value is in his power; he has one season in his career with an OBP above .330. If he ain't slugging, he ain't hitting -- and in the offseason of 2010-11, he hadn't slugged for two years.

So Hardy was -- like Ramos -- at a low point of value when the Twins moved him.

The Twins didn't trade him until they had the Tsuyoshi Nishioka deal essentially in place. They expected Nishi to fill one of the middle infield slots; that didn't work either. (I'll discuss the Nishioka deal in another post.) Misreading Nishioka's ability played a role in trading away Hardy.

Then there's this: With the giant Mauer contract about to kick in, the Twins had to get cheaper at other roster spots. Even with the jettisoning of most of the bullpen veterans and the departure of second baseman Orlando Hudson, they essentially needed to clear out one of Carl Pavano, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel or Hardy.

They chose the one who had had the worst 2010 season. They also unloaded Brendan Harris, although I don't know that they saved much money on that (I think they gave the O's enough cash to pay for Harris' major-league deal).

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Hardy-Gomez trade

Carlos Gomez: Eye-popping range, head-shaking decisions.

When: Nov. 6, 2009
What: The Twins acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from Milwaukee in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.
Value: Hardy had 10 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota. Gomez, still with the Brewers, has had 11 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010-11.
Twins motivation: Fill the shortstop hole and unload Gomez.

This trade came quickly, just days after the Giants wrapped up their World Series title.

J.J. Hardy: One and
done with the Twins.

Gomez had clearly fallen out of favor with the Twins. The most obvious piece of evidence for that: In September 2009, with Justin Morneau out of the lineup with a stress fracture in his back, Ron Gardenhire could have put Denard Span in right and Gomez in center. Instead, he filled the right field gap opened by the shift of Michael Cuddyer to first base with Jason Kubel and the DH spot vacated by Kubel with a platoon of Brendan Harris and Jose Morales.This was a far weaker defensive alignment, and the Harris/Morales platoon wasn't much at the plate either.

ABG -- Anybody But Gomez.

Hardy had also fallen out of favor with the Brewers, The shortstop had bopped 26 homers in '07 and 24 more in '08, but never got his bat going in '09. He got optioned back to Triple A in favor of prospect Alcedes Escobar (now with Kansas City) late in the season in a transparent move to halt his service time calendar and make him more attractive trade bait.

So the two teams traded their disappointments in hopes of filling lineup gaps.

Gomez, who lost the center field job in Minnesota after being given it, didn't hang on to the center field job in Milwaukee either. Hardy hurt his hand early in the season, started just 95 games at short and slugged under .400 for the season -- nothing that increased his value. The Twins traded him after the 2010 season; we'll deal with that trade later.

I daresay both teams were dissatisfied with the results of this trade.

J.J., we Hardy knew ye

J.J. Hardy did not display
the home run power
with the Twins that
he did in Milwaukee.

One year, 101 games, two disabled list stints and gone. The Twins got less out of James Jerry Hardy (,263/.320/.394 in 375 plate appearances) than they did out of Brendan Harris (.251/.309/.360 in 1,063 plate appearances), and now both infielders have been shipped to Baltimore with cash for a pair of pitchers who spent last season in the minors.

Jim Hoey was essentially rehabbing an injured shoulder; he's a hard-thrower with 34-plus major league innings on his resume in 2006 and '07; he missed 2008 with shoulder surgery; he has been in Double- and Triple-A throwing 100 innings and striking out 117. Brett Jacobson is another hard-thrower, age 24, who hasn't gotten out of high A ball yet; he's a project.

Couple this trade with the Rule 5 selection of left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Braves system and the Twins are coming home from the Winter Meetings with

• Two candidates in Hoey and Diamond to restock their 2011 bullpen;
• An apparently nearly complete deal with Japansese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka;
• A commitment to a faster middle infield in Alexi Casilla and Nishioka;
• A slimmer payroll (by roughly $7 million or so)

We don't know what the Twins will do with their savings. If, as LeVelle Neal suggests, it's re-signing Carl Pavano, I'll be rather dissatisfied with this activity. Pavano is a declining stock.

Nishioka first, then Hardy

The Twins typically lie in the background at the annual winter meetings. That may not be the case this year. Or it might be.

The priority is getting Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka signed. If and when that happens, then they can get serious about using an infielder -- not to name names, but J.J. Hardy -- as a trade chit. The Twins front office is not given to dashing into minefields, and they're not likely to move their starting shortstop before locking in Nishioka.

LaVelle Neal reports that the Twins and  Nishioka's agent met repeatedly Monday and exchanged contract offers. They don't have to sign Nishioka this week, but the sooner the better.

Neal also names six teams as having shown interest in Hardy. I'm privately pleased to note that all six were among the ones I listed as possible trade partners here, although there are some on that list who probably should be hunting for a longer-term shortstop -- meaning one younger and cheaper than Hardy. What the point would be for the Pirates or Orioles to import Hardy is unknown to me.

He shouldn't have printed that

It's generally amusing, and seldom informative, to see what pearls of "wisdom" the metro papers' sports gossip columnists, Sid Hartman and Charley Walters, come up with to fill their allotted space.

Here's a Walters marvel I encountered Sunday (under the heading "Don't Print That") while reading the Pioneer Press during breakfast in a Wisconsin hotel:

Maybe the Twins could include shortstop J.J. Hardy in a deal for Kansas City Royals starter Zack Greinke.

Yeah, and maybe the Kansas City front office is brain dead.

As I noted here last week, if the Royals move Greinke, it  won't be for established major leaguers. Hardy might be eligible for free agency before Greinke is. 

If Walters (or his editors) had a sense of reality, they would have done with that sentence what the header advised.

---

Poll stuff: We had 55 votes on the Twins double-play combo.

Thirty-four respondents (61 percent) think the Twins will have Hardy and Tsuyoshi Nishioka in their middle infield this coming season; 18 (32 percent) think it will be Alexi Casilla and Nishioka; one thinks it will be Hardy and Casilla; two think it will be an unnamed combo; and nobody was cynical enough to pick the "Punto will be involved" option.

New poll up.

The market for J.J. Hardy

What are we bid for
this 28-year-old shortstop?

On Wednesday I described the shortstop market as "trade-friendly." After publishing that opinion,  I started having second thoughts. Is it really going to be easy to trade Hardy? The free agent pickings aren't great, but who's out there looking for a shortstop?

So let's go team by team and see what their shortstop status is. I won't worry about what the Twins might get in a Hardy trade as much as what teams might be looking to upgrade.

AL EAST

Yankees: Only if the Derek Jeter thing gets so bad that the Yanks decide he's more trouble than he's worth. I don't see that happening. But if it does, this is not an operation that's going to plug a rookie into the spot.

Red Sox: Signed Marco Scutaro last year, now are said to be trying to trade him to free the position for Jed Lowrie. No trade here.

Rays: Ex-Twin Jason Bartlett, getting pricey, is trade bait; Tampa Bay has Reid Brignac lined up for the job. No trade here.

Blue Jays: Acquired Yunel Escobar in mid season. No trade here.

Orioles: Had Cesar Izturis last season. Shopping for a shortstop. Possible.

AL CENTRAL (in division)

White Sox: They probably like Alexei Ramirez more than they'd like Hardy. No trade here.

Tigers: Dave Dombrowski has a wonderful track record as a GM, but his moves this winter baffle me. One of them is committing to Jhonny Peralta at short. No trade here.

Indians: I like the idea of Asdrubal Cabrera more than the reality, but Cleveland is not in a position in which trading for established veterans makes sense. No trade here.

Royals: Yuniesky Betancourt may not be the worst regular in the majors, but if he isn't he's close. Still, K.C. is at least a year away from being in hole-patching mode. No trade here.

Elvis Andrus, according to
Baseball Info Systems'
baserunning analysis, was the
best baserunner among
major league shortstops in
2010.

AL WEST

Rangers:  They have Elvis Andrus, who is good and going to be great. No trade here.

Angels:  They may not like Erick Aybar as much as I do — he didn't have a great 2010 -- but I don't see them making a change.

Athletics: Cliff Pennington is better than I think he is, but that's not saying much, and Billy Beane is never afraid to make moves. Possibility.

Mariners: Jack Wilson, if he's healthy. Good glove, no stick. Hardy would be an upgrade. Possibility.

NL WEST

Giants: Complex. Jose Uribe and Edgar Renteria split time, and they won the World Series, and now Uribe's gone and Renteria's a free aent. They signed Miguel Tejada, who might play short or might play third if they decide Pablo Sandoval's not serious enough to be in shape. They might be a possibility, they might not.

Dodgers: They have Rafael Furcal and Uribe. Not in the shortstop market.

Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki is (a) the best shortstop going and (b) signed an extension that takes him close to Social Security age. (Not really, but it feels that way.) Not a possibility.

Diamondbacks: Stephen Drew isn't the star they expected him to become and starting to get expensive. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded him, but it wouldn't be to replace him with someone with Hardy's salary. Not a possibility.

Padres: Last year's surprise contender got nothing from Everth Cabrera and traded late for Tejada so they'd at least get some hits from the position. Tejada's gone, and now what? This is probably too low-budget an operation to go for Hardy, but there's a big hole there.

NL CENTRAL

Starlin Castro hit .300
for the Cubs — at age 20.

Reds: Orlando Cabrera with help from Paul Janish. The O-Cab is probably on the move again. Janish is a glove. Possibility.

Cubs: Starlin Castro is their present and their future. No possibility.

Cardinals: Brendan Ryan looks good in the metrics, but didn't hit and had some run-ins with pitchers about his defense. They've added Ryan Theriot, who could play short or second. The Cards are like the Twins in this sense: They have an above-average payroll, but a few big stars are sucking up most of the money. I doubt they can go for a $6 million shortstop.

Pirates: If Betancourt isn't the worst regular, Rony Cedeno might be.  But adding a Hardy makes little sense for a team in their position.

Astros: Someone named Tommy Manzella had 82 games at short for Houston. He hit .224/.266/.262, so I'm guessing he's not the answer. I'm not sure they should be looking for a Hardy, but they might.

Brewers: They traded Hardy to make room for Alcides Escobar, and even if they think it was a mistake, they're not going to admit it so obviously as to trade to get Hardy back.

NL EAST

Phillies: Jimmy Rollins is aging, he had injuries, he's pricey. He's also very much part of their core. No possibility.

Jimmy Rollins was limited
to 350 at-bats in 2010.

Braves: Alex Gonzalez has the job and a year to go on his contract. I think Hardy's better, but they'd need to move Gonzalez. Not likely.

Mets: Jose Reyes is supposedly being dangled as trade bait. I don't think he'd getting traded, and if not they're not in need of a shortstop.

Marlins: Hanley Ramirez is their cornerstone player, for good and ill. Not a possibility.

Nationals: Too soon to pull the plug on Ian Desmond. Not a possibility.

The negative as a positive

The Twins got exactly what they bargained for/expected from the players' free-agent arbitration deadline: Nothing. Three noes. All negative, which is a good thing.

It remains possible for the Twins to sign any of the three players who declined arbitration Tuesday (Jesse Crain, Orlando Hudson and Carl Pavano) -- or, for that matter, their other seven free agents to whom the organization did not offer arbitration. Possible but unlikely: the Twins are not believed to have interest in bringing Hudson back, even on a one-year deal, and Pavano and Crain have no shortage of suitors.

The 'stache may not be
trash, but the
Twins should allow
Carl Pavano to sign
elsewhere. 

Me, I don't expect (or want) Pavano back, certainly not on a three-year deal. I'd rather give the scouting department the extra draft picks to play with. Crain is looking for a chance to close and a chance to cash in; I can see him and the Twins reuniting later this winter if things don't fall the way he hopes, but really -- middle relievers are highly replaceable, and good organizations shouldn't be paying three relief pitchers upwards of $6 million each.

Bottom line: If the Twins keep any of those three, it will be on terms the Twins are willing to live with, and if they don't, they get extra draft picks.

Thursday is a deadline with perhaps more intrigue. That's tender day, the day when teams must offer contracts to their non-free agent players. For those players who aren't arbitration eligible, that's a simple matter; they get basically the minimum. It can be a tougher call on the likes of J.J. Hardy and Glen Perkins, but the Twins aren't likely to cut any of their arbitration-eligibles loose.

Hardy in particular. Even if the Twins aren't as enamored with him as the statheads are. the shortstop market is ... let's call it trade friendly. Miguel Tejada signed Tuesday with San Francisco for one year, $6.5 million; that's roughly what Hardy is projected to receive through arbitration, and Tejada isn't as good right now as Hardy. If only as a sign-and-trade, Hardy figures to still have value for the Twins.

Silly season and poll stuff

Things must be rather boring on the Chicago baseball beat these days. My evidence for that is the latest foray by Phil Rogers, the Chicago Tribune's national baseball writer, into consider-the-source territory.

I'll bypass his centerpiece (the notion that the Cubs and Sox should swap general managers) because picking it apart would be to take it seriously.

Instead, I'll hit on this throwaway nugget in his "whispers" sidebar:

The Red Sox are talking trade with Marco Scutaro, and it's easy to see him going to the Twins for one of their bullpen arms. Scutaro is Nick Punto on figurative steroids. …

Boston signed Marco Scutaro as
a free agent about a year ago; now
they supposedly are shopping him.

I don't know exactly what the Punto-on-steroids comparison is supposed to mean, but never mind. I'm struck instead by the notion that the Twins have excess bullpen arms to swap for Scutaro.

Remember: Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Ran Mahay and Randy Flores are all free agents. Maybe it's possible to trade the right to offer arbitration to someone like Rauch, but that's all the Twins actually have of any of the six, the right to offer arbitration.

Scutaro has one year left on his contract, $5 million. He'd probably be a bit cheaper than J.J. Hardy, who's arbitration eligible, but he's about seven years older and, based on 2010 numbers, no upgrade at the plate. I don't see it.

---

We had 41 responses to last week's poll question: Should the Twins make it easier to hit home runs in Target Field? Justin Morneau won't like the results.

Thirty-seven (90 percent) said no, four (10 percent) yes.

Thus proving (?) that, while chicks dig the long ball, my blog readers prefer flyball outs.

New poll up.

The return of the Hardy boy

Shortstop J.J. Hardy (pictured) is supposed to come off the disabled list today, with Matt Tolbert going on the DL himself.

And we'll get to apply the John Mitchell test to Ron Gardenhire's roster use. Mitchell was the attorney general for Richard Nixon who famously said: Don't listen to what we say, watch what we do.

Gardenhire has said a lot of things about using Michael Cuddyer at third base to open playing time for Jim Thome. First he said he wouldn't do it. Then he said he'd do it during the non-DH portion of the schedule (when the issue was keeping Jason Kubel in the lineup). Then he said Cuddyer isn't his regular third baseman and that Thome isn't capable of playing more than a couple days in a row anyway. Then he started Cuddyer at third and Thome at DH in four straight games.

Hardy's return frees Nick Punto to return to third base, which he plays at a much higher level than does Cuddyer. Thome, on the other hand, hits at a much higher level than Punto.

At this point, Gardenhire's proclamations about playing time don't carry a lot of credibility. Watch what he does; don't take stock in what he says.

Avoiding arbitration

Lots of signings Tuesday by the Twins. They had eight arbitration cases pending and wiped the slate clean.

Because all eight were already under team control, the deals are mainly of interest to their employer, who now know exactly how much they're paying these guys, and to their accountants.

Tuesday was the day to exchange arbitration figures, and there were a lot of signings all over baseball. It appears that everybody's got a pretty good handle on where the arbitration ruling was likely to go, and if they have that figured out, it's easy to settle.

Some of the Twins deals are complex enough that they were clearly being work on a while. Francisco Liriano, for example, has incentives both as a starter and as a reliever. Brendan Harris got a two-year contract —which make his the worst contract on the roster, except that it's not a huge amount (for baseball. Me, I'd be able to retire on it).

And J.J. Hardy's contract is essentially what Orlando Cabrera got last season, which was too low for O-Cab's liking. Cabrera's still available; he's overestimated his market again, it appears.

Infield musical chairs

The Twins struck early in their infield makeover with the J.J. Hardy trade. Now they seem content to sit back and see who's left without a job when free agency settles down.

It's a strategy that may result in a below-market signing — or that may result in a Joe Crede sequel. Or Orlando Cabrera.

The Twins never figured to be in on Marco Scutaro (above), who signed a two-year deal Friday with the Red Sox. He's a Type A with an arbitration offer, which essentially eliminates him in the Twins scheme of things — they're not giving up a first round draft pick for the privilege of paying a 34-year-old $6 million plus to play in their middle infield.

And in that light, it seems odd that the Red Sox made that decision. But they got stuck last year at short when Jed Lowrie got hurt and wound up playing Nick Green for much of the season. They picked up Alex Gonzalez from Cincinnati near the trading deadline, and he at least provided a competent glove, but the Blue Jays grabbed Gonzalez early in the free agent process.

So it amounts to a trade of Scutaro for Gonzalez and two draft picks. If Scutaro plays as he did last season, that's fair to both clubs; if he reverts to his usual form, the Jays have a real chance to win that exchange.

When teams are scrapping for the likes of Gonzalez and Scutaro to play short, it makes the Twins deal for Hardy look pretty good. Rumor has it that Boston pursued Hardy, but the Brewers didn't like the pitchers offered and demanded pitchers the Red Sox were't willing to trade.

Meanwhile, the Twins still have an infield opening. Placido Polanco's gone; Scutaro's gone; Chone Figgins — another guy the Twins weren't going to purse — is apparently all but signed with Seattle. That still leaves most of the infield possibilities mentioned here earlier in the week, with some of the big spenders having filled their holes.

I suspect the Twins' favored target would be Adrian Beltre, the cupless wonder, but there's talk that agent Scott Boras is angling for something like four years at $10 million-plus a year, and the Twins won't (and shouldn't) go there on either length or price. After Beltre's .265/.304/.379 season (complete with ruptured testicle), somebody (agent or player or both) probably needs a reality check.