Watching a Twins win

Tuesday's Twins game was, like Monday night's, telecast back home in Minnesota, and I watched most of it.

A few observations:

There is nothing quite like watching Grapefruit League games to realize limitations of the spring stats, even beyond the small sample sizes. There was a strong breeze blowing in Tuesday at the Port Charlotte, Fla., park, and that made it play a lot bigger.

For all the talk early in camp about how Ben Revere had improved his arm by throwing a football, it's pretty obvious that he remains a well-below average thrower.

The Twins had some more sloppy play, but unlike Monday the mistakes by and large didn't factor in the scoring. (One of Tampa Bay's two runs scored because of an error by Darin Mastroianni in left field.) The first few days of exhibitions have been marked by fielding miscues and baserunning blunders. Imagine how slipshod things would be without the three extra days of drills.

I've written before about liking Matt Maloney's minor-league stats, and he looked good Tuesday afternoon. He's out of options, and I don't know how he would fit on the staff, since there are five starters with multi-million contracts ahead of him and other long relief candidates (notably Anthony Swarzak and Terry Doyle) who are also use or lose.

An ugly first look

Man, I hope we don't see a lot of this.

Fox Sports North televised Monday night's spring training tilt on their alternate channel. I don't know how many viewers found it, but I'm pretty sure not many stuck with it as long as I did.

Hey, it was baseball. Bad baseball, but still baseball.

A few comments, most -- but not all -- of which come with the "it's the fourth game of spring training, lets not read too much into it:" caveat: 

Jason Marquis was brutal. Utterly no command; he couldn't get out of the second inning. Walked three, threw three wild pitches and could easily have had a fourth. The Twins also committed two errors behind him.

Terry Ryan described Marquis as a strike thrower when the veteran signed, but that's simply not part of Marquis' record. I don't expect him to be great, and I don't expect him to be this out of control.

Deolis Guerra gave up five runs in his outing. Guerra is one of a handful of bullpen candidates I said a few days ago I was particularly interested in. Two of them, Guerra and Jason Bulger, have already been embarrassed by the Red Sox.

Bert Blyleven's explanation of Guerra's issues differed somewhat from what I've seen for years from Baseball America. BA has said that Guerra, who has a power pitcher's frame, shies away from using his fastball. (Supposedly his strong second half last season after his move to the bullpen corresponded with more use of his fastball.) Blyleven says Guerra's inconsistent with his "dominant" fast ball.

He didn't look like much of anything Monday.

Ryan Doumit played left field ... poorly. His "handling" of the leadoff double in the second inning was reminiscent of Delmon Young.

Joe Mauer had two hits. What a pretty swing. That doesn't change, spring training or no.

On wild-card play-ins

It's official now: The baseball postseason will feature the six division winners, plus four wild card teams, two from each league, with the wild card teams playing one-game play-ins.

This idea caught momentum last winter as the new labor deal was being worked on. I would prefer a system that doesn't let a second-place team have any chance at the big prize, but I recognize that rocket has left the launch pad. This format figures to provide more incentive for teams to win their division rather than settle for a wild-card berth. That's a plus.

Ron Gardenhire, and doubtless others, dislikes the idea of being ousted from the postseason with just one loss. Tough. The teams facing that possibility will face it because they finished second.

The perfect system, as far as I'm concerned, for crowning the baseball champion was abandoned in 1969 with the advent of division play. For 67 years, the team that had the best record in the two leagues advanced directly to the World Series. But even in the days of eight-team leagues, it was difficult to sell tickets to an eighth-place team, and it just got worse with expansion.

Divisions and wild cards are a ruse to keep more teams in the running. That devalues the regular season. The more teams in the playoffs, the worse the devaluation. Making the postseason more difficult for the marginal teams might be a step toward restoring some of that value.

Try, try again

Joel Zumaya isn't giving up on
his pitching career yet.

Joel Zumaya told the Twins on Sunday that he will have Tommy John surgery and attempt once again to resuscitate his pitching career.

Which makes sense. Even if all he can get next year is the same low-guarantee money he got this year ($400,000), that's still pretty good coin by the standards of most of us non-pro-jock types. He's not likely to match that as a pro fisherman (which he mentioned as a possible alternative in the immediate wake of his injury).

Zoom-Zoom broke in to the majors in 2006. Assuming that he's averaged $450,000 a year -- which is less than the current minimum, but more than the minimum was when he reached Detroit -- that's well over $3 million. I have no idea how well he's managed his money, of course, but one would hope that he doesn't have to pitch for financial reasons.

Anyway ... the Twins haven't made a move with him yet and don't have to until the end of spring training. If they release him before the season starts, he gets just the $400,000; after that, as I understand it, the full $850,000 becomes guaranteed. I would expect them to release him unless he signs another team-friendly deal for 2013

No matter what the Twins do, they get to pay for his surgery and rehab.

Pic of the Week

Visual proof that baseballs are bigger than Matt Capps.

The Twins had almost two weeks of drills. Now it's time for the meaningless games down in Florida.

As far as I'm concerned, a B game in Fort Myers is more interesting than any Super Bowl ever played.

Around the division: Kansas City Royals

Man, this is going to be one tough team to pitch to. Maybe not to so much this year, but down the road, as these kids get more major league experience and a better understanding of how pitchers are working them ... The Royals now have lot of hitting talent, with some more percolating up through the system.

Things are looking up for the Royals,
including Lorenzo Cain (foreground)
and Wil Myers.

A logical lineup for Ned Yost:

Lorenzo Cain, CF
Johnny Giovotella, 2B
Alex Gordon, LF
Eric Hosmer, 1B
Billy Butler, DH
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Salvador Perez, C
Alcides Escobar, SS

You may not be real familiar with a lot of those names, but you will be. A lot of high draft picks there -- the fruit of almost 25 straight seasons of sub-.500 ball finally paying off. Hosmer didn't win the AL Rookie of the Year award last year (Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson did), but he wouldn't have been a bad choice at all. Moustakas' rookie numbers don't look good in total, but he erupted in the final month. Perez so impressed the Royals that they signed him to what may be an eight-year deal.

This team will hit. It's skewed a bit to the left side, but it will hit.

Pitch, not so much. The Royals have run into the injury bugaboo with some of their starting pitching prospects, some of whom are nearly as highly touted as their young hitters. As long as Luke Hochaver is their No. 1 starter, it's going to be tough for the Royals to contend.

The bullpen was pretty good last season, and there are Twins fans who are envious of K.C.'s acquistion of former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton this offseason. Broxton hasn't been effective for some time, however, and I suspect his chief value is as a security blanket that allows the Royals to move Aaron Crow, who made the All-Star team as a rookie middle reliever, to the rotation.

If Crow takes to starting (his minor league record is pretty dismal), and if the 30-start rule applies to Danny Duffy, and if Jonathan Sanchez somehow discovers the strike zone in the American League ... well, then Hochaver and Bruce Chen slide down from being their top two starters to being their fourth and fifth arms, and in that case the Royals might even win this divisional title

But that's asking for a lot of things to go right. Even if they don't, I fully expect the Royals to take a big step forward in 2012. They're primed to be "phony contenders" the way Cleveland was last season.

Reviewing the middle infield prospects

Brian Dozier has
a half-season of Double
A ball on his resume.

Last February I had a post comparing the different views of the Twins middle infield prospects of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook and John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book.

This year Sickels reviews 47 Twins, six to eight of them middle infielders (one, Jairo Perez, is listed as 3B-2B, and another, Yangervis Solarte, as 2B-OF); he does not list Miguel Sano or Eddie Rosario as middle infielders. Baseball America's 30 Twins prospects include six middle infielders, including Sano and Rosario.

Sano is easily the consensus choice as the Twins top prospect, but nobody expects him to play shortstop in the majors. The big (listed as more than 230 pounds) 18-year-old (turns 19 in May) apparently still sees himself as a shortstop, however, and he played there some last year.

Rosario played outfield last season; the Twins are converting him to second base. He is also young (turned 20 last September) and a highly regarded prospect as an outfielder. If he takes to the infield well, he'll be an even more valuable piece.

Beyond those two:

Levi Michael, last June's No. 1 draft pick, is rated by BA as the Twins No. 6 prospect. Sickels gives him a B- grade. Expect him (and Sano and Rosario) to open 2012 at low A Beloit, with Michael playing short.

Brian Dozier is BA's No. 10 Twins prospect and another B- from Sickels. He finished 2011 at Double A, is likely to open 2012 at Triple A Rochester. He may well be starting in Minnesota at some point this season.

Niko Goodrum, No. 19 on BA's Twins list, gets a C+ from Sickels. Very raw and athletic shortstop, a lean greyhound who came on strong last summer in Elizabethton as a teammate of Sano and Rosario. He may be held back this year for Michael, but I rather expect Michael to push his way up a level by mid-season and open a spot at Beloit for Goodrum.  Goodrum hit .341 in August, the last month of the Appy League season. While he's slender now, his father is big, and there's some thought that the younger Goodrum will, like Sano, outgrow shortstop. A second-round pick out of high school in 2010.

Jorge Polanco is No. 28 on the BA list, unlisted by Sickels. Didn't hit in the Gulf Coast League. At 5-11, 165 pounds, he is apparently not strong enough for pro ball; at age 18, there's time for him to grow. More time in a rookie league for him.


Jairo Perez (unranked by BA, C + from Sickels) hammered the ball at Beloit (.337/.413/.580), but he was old for the level (23), coming off Tommy John surgery and is not a good defensive player. If he's to be a major leaguer, he needs to move up the ladder with some haste. Likely to open at High A Fort Myers.

Pedro Florimon Jr.
reached the majros
briefly last year
with Baltimore.

Pedro Florimon Jr. was unranked by BA and a C prospect for Sickles. Twins picked him up from Baltimore more to help Rochester than for the big team. Good range, erratic, not much of a hitter.

Tyler Grimes (unranked BA, C from Sickles) was, like Michael, drafted out of college last summer. Unlike Michael, he signed quickly and played 42 games at Beloit, where he struck out a lot. A shortstop now, may not stick there. Not sure he should move up to to High A, and I can't see the Twins letting him block Michael or Rosario at Beloit. He might be a utility guy next year at Beloit.

Daniel Santana (unranked BA, C from Sickles) spent 2011 at Beloit. Good athlete, makeup and effort questioned. At 21, he's got time to outgrow his problems, but the logjam of middle infield talent at the A Ball level may work against him.

Yangervis Solante (unranked BA, C from Sickles) is a multi-position guy who hits for average and is likely to move up to Triple A. (As noted by a commenter, Solante signed with Texas as a minor league free agent. I missed that transaction; so did Sickles.)

Notable by their absences from these lists are the guys ticketed for Double A, most notably James Beresford and Estarlin de los Santos.

The Twins have a long history of failing to grow their own middle infielders. The stockpile of them in the A ball level -- Rosario, Michael, Goodrum, Santana, Grimes -- represent the best shot in some time to reverse that trend. But it will not happen in 2012, or even 2013; 2014 figures to be the earliest any of these guys reaches Target Field.