Deadline doings

It was, at the very least, a notable trade deadline day for the Twins.

On the field, they pummeled Cleveland, with Max Kepler hitting three homers, Jorge Polanco a pair of triples, Joe Mauer getting four hits and scoring four runs and Jose Berrios, after a rocky first inning, getting a quality start. Heck, Eddie Rosario even drew a walk.

And before the team took the field in Cleveland, interim general manager Rob Antony made a pair of trades.

Trade One: Fernando Abad to Boston for minor league pitcher Pat Light.

The stuff I said in Monday's post about Brandon Kintzler essentially applies to Abad, except that

• Abad doesn't have the saves
• Abad is left-handed

They're both 30, were signed to minor league deals, and have better ERAs this year than their underlying stats would suggest. Kintzler remains, but the Twins cashed in Abad for a power-arm prospect in Light, who they drafted out of high school in 2009 but didn't sign.

Light, 25, is said to reach 100 mph at times, but his control is indifferent at best -- 17 walks in 31 innings at Triple A Pawtucket this year, which is better than last year's 26 walks in 33 innings at the same level. He's strictly a relief arm.

The Twins don't have a good track record developing this type of pitcher, not that anybody has a magic touch with them. Light might turn into a late-inning guy, or he might wash out. At least he has two option years left, so there's time.

Trade Two: Ricky Nolasco, Alex Meyer and money to Anaheim for lefty Hector Santiago and minor league pitcher Alan Busenitz.

Give Antony credit: he found a way to unload Nolasco's contract and add a viable major league starter in Santiago.

It did cost the Twins Meyer, but at this point that doesn't look like a terrible loss. Meyer has missed most of the season with arm issues, and even before his shoulder started barking at him, the Twins didn't seem to know if he was still a starting candidate or destined for the bullpen. A power arm with indifferent control -- see Pat Light, above.

The LA Times story on this trade says Meyer, despite his issues, becomes the Angels' top prospect -- which is quite the indictment of that farm system. Meyer's been highly ranked in the past, but I doubt anybody would have had him among the Twins's top 10 prospects any more.

Which is why Busenitz is just a name to be aware of. Yes, he's reached Triple A for the Angels; yes, he too throws hard; yes, the Twins exchanged a minor league pitcher who as burned at least two options for one not yet on the 40-man roster. These are all pluses. The Twins have plenty of these guys around, and we'll see if he emerges.

Santiago is a 28-year-old lefty who made the All-Star team last year (seriously) and has a 3.68 career ERA in 105 major league starts. Last year he led the league in homers allowed (29) and this year he leads in walks allowed (57), neither of which is a positive. He also strikes out eight men per nine innings, a rate that's been pretty consistent over four years in major league rotations, and he's got another year of team control.

No question: You'd rather have Santiago than Nolasco. The Angels made the deal with the hopes that they can find the major league pitcher in Meyer that the Twins could not.

The fifth starter outcome tree

Neither Tyler Duffey -- who pitched the "major league" games against a collection of Pirates scrubs in Bradenton -- nor Ricky Nolasco -- who pitched against minor leaguers on a back field at the Twins complex in Fort Myers -- was all that impressive Monday.

The line on Tyler Duffey: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR. His Grapefruit League ERA is 7.30. #MNTwins

— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) March 28, 2016

Nolasco through 5: 4 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 2 xbh, 3 runs, 2 earned, 2 walks, 5 Ks, 1 WP. 84 pitches, 55 strikes.

— Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) March 28, 2016

Still, a decision on the fifth starter's job is expected this morning, and the conventional wisdom has it that Nolasco -- with a superficially superior spring training ERA, inflexible roster status and $25 million owed him over the next two years -- will get the nod.

The best case for going with Duffey is probably this: He was told going into camp that he was penciled into the rotation and he should focus on working on his changeup. He worked on his changeup and got shelled. If he gets demoted today, there's a genuine possibility that he'll go away believing that he was either lied to or set up to fail.

Beyond that, these are the possible outcomes if Duffey is indeed demoted:

1) Nolasco (or somebody else in the rotation) gets hurt or fails and Duffey is recalled to take his place.

2) The five starters all make 30 or more starts and throw 200 or so innings, in which case nobody's going to criticize management. It would also be the first time, I believe, that the Twins have had five starters make at least 30 starts apiece. So that second outcome is unlikely.

Bottom line: If Duffey isn't in the rotation to open the season, he's likely to be in the rotation at some point.

More pitching developments

Taylor Rogers was
a bullpen candidate
this spring but is likely
to start for Triple A
Rochester to open 2016.

The Twins did indeed whittle down their potential bullpen crew Wednesday. Lefty Buddy Boshers was reassigned to minor league camp; lefty Taylor Rodgers and righty J.R. Graham were optioned out. (The Twins also reassigned three position players -- catcher Carlos Paulino and infielders Buck Britton and Wilfredo Tovar -- and now have 37 in major league camp.)

Boshers' departure is no surprise. Graham, who spent last season on the major league roster as a Rule 5 guy, no longer has that protection; if anything, I am surprised it took this long for the Twins to send him out. Rogers, on the other hand, I genuinely thought would wind up coming north.

The Twins also on Wednesday outrighted Mike Strong, the Minnesota-born lefty they sent out in the first wave of cuts. This opens a slot on the 40-man roster, and the expectation is that it will be filled by Fernando Abad, veteran lefty reliever in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Let's slot Abad into the projected bullpen I posted Wednesday morning:

Closer: Glen Perkins

Fernando Abad
has allowed one
run in 6.1 innings
in Grapefruit
League games.

Setup 1: Kevin Jepsen
Setup 2: Trevor May
MR 1: Casey Fien
LOOGY 1: Fernando Abad?
MR 2: Open
Long man: Ricky Nolasco?

Which brings us, more or less, to Nolasco. Nolasco threw six shutout innings in the major league game, albeit against a minor league lineup. (The Rays took their major league lineup to Havana on Tuesday, then spent seven hours trapped on the tarmac by mechanical issues and ultimately arrived back in Port Charlotte around 5 a.m.) Tyler Duffey also pitched to a minor league lineup in a minor league game and got lit up.

Nolasco has now pitched 13.1 innings in Grapefruit League play to a 4.05 ERA, Duffey, 8.1 innings, 6.48 (minor league games such as Wednesday's not included). It would be foolish to judge the two on the basis of less than 23 combined innings; of more significance would be how their stuff looks, the quality of competition, what they're working on, and so forth.

The Twins entered camp with three starters written into their rotation in ink (Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) and one more in pencil (Duffey). Duffey has spluttered this spring, in part, perhaps, because he is trying to develop a straight change. There is speculation that the eraser is out for Duffey's rotation berth. 

I can see some silver linings to that development, but it is not my first choice, and it probably isn't the Twins' preference either.

A trip to Fort Myers: Game 2

Lots of things I could talk about from Thursday night's game, but I'll just hit a handful of items that struck me as noteworthy:

• Miguel Sano got lost on a ball hit over his head in a three-run Red Sox inning. I'm not saying it was an easy play, and I'm not saying every major league right fielder makes that play, but I will say it was a ball I expect a major league right fielder to catch. He didn't. 
• Ricky Nolasco, who gave up those three runs, hit 92 mph on the scoreboard velocity readings with frequency. On the other hand, he needed 37 pitches to get four outs, and this was against a lineup of scrubs and minor leaguers; the Red Sox brought no regulars to Hammond Stadium. 
• Taylor Rogers, who is prominent on my list of lefty relief candidates, gave up three runs before recording an out in the eighth inning. 

None of these events necessarily establishes anything -- it's the second spring training game, after all -- but they are perhaps predictive.

Sano is obviously a work in progress in the outfield, and there are bound to be misplays and "learning moments" out there for him. As I said at the start of the week, the word is patience,

Nolasco ... my hope has been that he'll show enough to pique the interest of some club that needs a starter. The line score from this outing is ugly, but Sano was part of the problem.  More important, if the stadium gun reading is accurate, he still might attract some interest.

Rogers hit the first man he faced, then gave up double, double, single and walk before retiring three in a row. Ugly outing, without question, but he found his way out of it. He didn't help his cause with the first five batters, but he might have saved his cause with the next three.

Winter meetings, midway through

The Twins have been on the sidelines through the first two days of the Winter Meetings -- no trades, just talk and some indications.

Indication One: Reluctant as I am to accept this, the Twins are certainly behaving as if they are serious about this Miguel Sano-to-the-outfield concept. Reports out of Nashville indicate that the Twins will listen to trade offers for Trevor Plouffe but aren't showing any urgency about moving the veteran third baseman.

Another factor in this: Oakland is apparently eager to trade Brett Lawrie, a very comparable third baseman. If the Twins were pushing for a Plouffe trade, the immediate effect would be a buyer's market. Taking their time on moving Plouffe, assuming they want to, might well be the best tactic.

Indication Two: Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, two free agent relievers who between them made 123 appearances for the Twins last year, won't be back. The Twins are, however, interested in bringing back Neal Cotts. As lefty relievers go, I'd probably prefer Duensing to Cotts, but Duensing figures to be the more expensive of the two.

Indication Three: Minnesota's top focus so far is said to be relief pitching, particularly left-handed, but there is also chatter that the Twins are shopping Ricky Nolasco. It's a good guess that moving Nolasco will either require the Twins to take on somebody else's bad contract or hand over a chunk of money to cover Nolasco's remaining years. Or both, Dumping Nolasco looks like addition by subtraction at this point, however. The Twins need to clear some rotation space.

Indication Four: Unless something happens today, the Twins will sit out the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. They have a full 40-man roster. They have seldom skipped Rule 5, but this year may be the exception.

From the Handbook: Using the changeup

A fifth of Kyle
Gibson's pitches in
2015 were changeups.

Thursday's post focused on Phil Hughes' ever-changing repertoire and mentioned Neil Allen pushing for more changeups from the Twins pitchers.

As compiled by Baseball Info Systems and published in the Bill James Handbook 2016, here's the percentage of changeups thrown in 2015 as compared to 2014 by five other Twins starters:

Kyle Gibson: 20 percent in 2015, 13 percent in 2014
Trevor May: 19 percent and 16 percent
Tommy Milone: 25 percent and 24 percent
Ricky Nolasco*: 6 percent and 10 percent
Mike Pelfrey*: 14 percent and 9 percent

*Nolasco and Pelfrey don't throw a "changeup" as defined by BIS. They use a splitter instead, and these numbers are for their splitters. Pelfrey's second number is from 2013, since he barely pitched in 2014.

What can we take from this? Pretty clearly there was a greater emphasis with Neil Allen/Paul Molitor on changing speeds than there had been under Rick Anderson/Ron Gardenhire. Milone barely changed, but he was already throwing his changeup almost a quarter of his pitches. Nolasco dropped off pretty sharply throwing his splitter, and I suspect his forearm/elbow issues had something to do with that.

Gibson was obviously a major change, from 13 percent changeups to 20 percent, and it appears to have been a significant pitch for him. BIS says he had the fifth best opposition OPS off his changeup in the American League (.545, rankings based on at least 100 batters faced).

The return of Ricky Nolasco

The Twins are expected to bring veteran (and high-priced) pitcher Ricky Nolasco off the 60-day disabled list today.

He's not likely to pitch many innings in what remains of the season, and what he does pitch probably won't be significant innings. This move isn't so much about trying to reach the postseason as

• rewarding him for rehabbing his midseason surgery diligently enough to be able to pitch this year; 
• establishing that he is indeed sound going into the offseason.

The Twins have some serious sorting to do among their starting candidates this winter. Nolasco, Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes are to get nearly $40 million next year (and the year after that); if healthy and on the roster, they will be in the rotation. None of them were, taking the season as a whole, as effective/helpful as Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone. That's a full rotation right there, and we haven't accounted for Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios or Trevor May -- or for the genuine possibility that the fascination with free-agent-to-be Mike Pelfrey has not run its course.

I doubt Nolasco has much trade value right now, and two or three innings of mopup relief in the final 11 games probably won't change that assessment. But knowing that he's sound might make it easier to deal somebody else.

Nolasco is not, as I write this, on the 40-man roster, so even with the expanded active roster somebody has to go to make room, presumably somebody who didn't get a September callup. Eyeballing the roster, my guess is Aaron Thompson will be DFA'd. While I have argued for waiving Oswaldo Arcia, I can't imagine that happened before the organizational meetings.

Shows what I know

On Monday, evaluating the Twins catching situation, I surmised here that the Twins would stick with Chris Herrmann as the No. 2 catcher behind Kurt Suzuki.

Tuesday night they optioned Herrmann to Triple A, put Ricky Nolasco on the 60-day disabled list, and pulled Eric Fryer off the U.S. roster for the Pan Am games.

Fryer hit .299 for Rochester this year, albeit with little power (one homer and just seven extra base hits in 184 at-bats). He's regarded as a better defensive receiver than Herrmann, but I think Herrmann, despite his poor major league numbers to date, is a better hitter. Plus Herrmann's left-handedness provided a platoon option, even though Paul Molitor didn't always take advantage of it.

Fryer wasn't on the 40-man roster, but putting Nolasco on the 60-day DL opened a spot for him. Nolasco is to have surgery on his ailing ankle. I don't know how likely he is to return this year. If he does, it probably won't be until September, and the opportunities for him to get tune-up starts in the minors will be limited.

---

Another guy went on the 60-day DL Tuesday: Former Twin Justin Morneau, out since May 16 with yet another concussion.

The Rockies say the move doesn't indicate any deterioration in his condition, and he's about a week away from being eligible to come off the 60-day DL anyway. But reading between the lines, it doesn't appear that the 2006 AL MVP and last year's NL batting champ is going to be able to take the field any time soon.

To repeat what I've said before about Morneau and his brain injuries: It's his life and his health, but it's probably in his best interest to retire.

One of those days

Nothing much went right for the Twins on Friday.

Problem One: Byron Buxton went on the disabled list with a sprained thumb. The Twins put the timeline for his return at four to six weeks. Then he'll probably have a rehab stint in the minors. We're looking at mid-August for his return, is my guess.

With Aaron Hicks also on the disabled list, the Twins started Shane Robinson in center Friday against a right-handed pitcher, which is sub-optimal.

Danny Santana was recalled and warned by Paul Molitor that he might be pressed into center field duties, a la last season. Which gives me that "here we go again" feeling. But even if they slide Eddie Rosario into center (my preferred solution), that just means somebody else has to play left -- and if not Robinson, it's going to be an infielder.

So the outfield defense -- to my way of thinking the key improvement to this team -- is suddenly looking shakier.

Problem Two: Ricky Nolasco tested his troublesome ankle and his new orthotics with a bullpen session. That didn't go well.

Not that there's room for Nolasco in the rotation at the moment anyway, but the Twins would rather have their $49 million pitcher functioning.

Problem Three: Trevor May got one out Friday night against the lowly Brewers. One stinking out.

His ERA rose from 4.03 to 4.62.

One bad start is one bad start, and I still regard May as a better bet than at least two other members of the rotation. But two other facts remain: One, May has roster flexibility; Two, Ervin Santana has to be added to the 25-man roster after seven more games. This bad outing makes it all too easy for the Twins to take the easy route to open a slot for E. Santana.

Problem Four: Alex Meyer got lit up in his major league debut, allowing four runs in 1.2 innings. That's hardly pushing him up the bullpen totem pole.

OK, here's a silver lining: Brian Duensing had three shutout innings and Aaron Thompson one.

Signs of effectiveness from those lefties are welcome. But they don't make up for the bad news.

Nolasco, Milone and Mauer's bunt

This is Ricky Nolasco's
third time on the
disabled list in
11 momths.

As it happened, it was apparently an easy call. Ricky Nolasco tried to throw a bullpen session Thursday morning in Boston and knew immediately that he can't pitch.

So the easy way to get Tommy Milone on the active roster was the way followed. Nolasco is said to be headed to a CT scan now that the team has returned to Minnesota. Given the language used so far to describe the ankle -- the word "impingement" has been used -- I won't be at all surprised if he has surgery in short order.

---

Milone had a "Blackburn" in his return to the rotation -- a start without a strikeout. Not a real impressive linescore -- five innings, nine hits and a walk, four runs allowed. The defense didn't help a lot early on, but he also threw a couple of gopher balls.

He'll have better starts, I'm sure. With Ervin Santana now about a month away from returning, he'll need to. And this was actually the best of Milone's three career starts in Fenway Park, long regarded as a graveyard for left-handed pitchers.

---

My Twitter feed featured a lot of commentary about the Joe Mauer bunt in the ninth inning that resulted in a Red Sox error and the first of four runs for the Twins in the inning.

It wasn't a good bunt, and as it turned out, a bad bunt was good for the Twins. The Sox botched the play, perhaps because it took them by surprise. Surprise is a stressor, and this Red Sox team is getting a reputation as a poor defensive team. Or, more broadly, a poor fundamental team; some of their baserunning Wednesday was of the TOOTBLAN category (Thrown Out On The Bases Like A Nincompoop).

I don't want to see a steady diet of Mauer sacrifices -- if that's on the agenda, he shouldn't be hitting in the top half of the order -- but I'm hardly opposed to the call, and wouldn't have been had it been a routine sac bunt. Unpredictability is an optimal strategic state.

The roster shuffle

Tommy Milone starts
today, but we don't
yet know who leaves
the active roster
to make room for him.

Between Monday's rainout, Wednesday's resultant doubleheader and the mystery of Ricky Nolasco's ankle, the Twins are in another period of roster instability.

There was another noteworthy roster move unrelated to the rainout or Nolasco's uncertainity, but I'll get to that in a moment.

Michael Tonkin -- who in my opinion ought to be on the roster anyway -- got a one-day reprieve from last week's demotion to serve as the 26th man for Wednesday's twin bill. He appeared in the day game, gave up a homer, and now returns to Rochester. As I understand the rainout roster expansion rule, the emergency callup cannot remain.

Tommy Milone -- he of the one earned run allowed in five Triple A starts -- is to be added to the roster and start today. Kyle Gibson gets his start pushed back to Friday. Nolasco is tentatively scheduled to start Saturday, but that depends on how his troublesome ankle responds to a scheduled bullpen session today. If he is deemed able to go Saturday, somebody else has to go to make room for Milone on the roster. If Nolasco goes on the DL, the question of how Milone fits on the 25-man roster is answered, but Saturday becomes a "bullpen game." Which has been known to be the case with Nolasco starts anyway.

Nolasco is said to be resistant to another stint on the disabled list, and I don't blame him. But I don't like the other choices for fitting Milone on the active roster or in the rotation. Shelving Nolasco is the simplest solution. The other routes are more complicated.

Then there's the Oswaldo Arcia move announced between games Wednesday. The slugger was officially activated off the disabled list and optioned to Triple A Rochester, where he's been on a rehab assignment and struggling at the plate.

The Twins didn't have to make that move Wednesday -- there's still time on Arcia's rehab clock -- so it raised some eyebrows. But it fit my view that the Twins are now serious about outfield defense, and that part of that emphasis involves not having a set DH. Arcia remains a poor fielder, and, as with Kennys Vargas, there's only part-time at-bats available at DH. With all the pitchers on the roster, the bench guys have to have some defensive role.

In that view, Arcia simply doesn't fit. There's another factor to this timing, however, one that doesn't involve fidelity to the notion of outfield defense. Arcia's option clock is now started, He can be recalled in 10 days, If the Twins actually want to bring him back soon but deemed him unlikely to be ready when his rehab eligibility expired, optioning him now quickens when he can return to the big club.

Reshuffling the pitching staff

One move before Friday's game, two moves after. Going though the revamping of the Twins pitching staff:

• Tim Stauffer to the disabled list with an inflamed ERA pulled intracostal muscle, Ryan Pressly recalled. 
• Caleb Thielbar optioned to Triple A Rochester, Brian Duensing activated from the disabled list.
• Tommy Milone optioned to Triple A Rochester, Ricky Nolasco activated from the disabled list.

Taking them one at a time:

I was never a fan of the Stauffer signing, and I would rather see Pressly on the staff even if Stauffer weren't hurting. I had figured Stauffer was about two weeks from being released. This disabled-list stint will probably restart the clock on that.

Thielbar for Duensing was pretty obvious. With Casey Fien sidelined, it's likely Duensing is going to be called on heavily to set up Glen Perkins. His track record against right-handed hitters over time suggests that's not a good fit.

The surprise was Milone going down. The Twins had indicated that the lefty would go to the bullpen; instead, he's going to Rochester. I'm torn on this one. On one hand, Milone has not exhibited good command in the past three starts (nine walks and six strikeouts in 14.1 innings). On the other hand, Milone has a better major league record in many respects than does Nolasco, and even more so than Mike Pelfrey. Milone loses out not because they're better pitchers, but because he's easy to set aside.

I hope and expect that this will be temporary. Aside from the possibility/probability that somebody in the rotation will get hurt, it's possible that the Twins will at some point trade one of their starters.

The day-to-day roster

The Twins dealt with the Wednesday injuries in typical minimalist fashion Thursday. Casey Fien did go on the disabled list with Michael Tonkin added to the active roster, but the Phil Hughes is expected to make his next start, and Jordan Schafer is said to be good to go.

Which doesn't mean there won't moves ahead. It's a day-to-day roster right now. Ricky Nolasco and Brian Duensing are to come off the disabled list as early as Saturday, which means two pitchers have to come off the active roster. The return of Caleb Thielbar to Rochester (for Duensing) seems fairly obvious.

So did the demotion of Trevor May, and on that count I was pleased to hear that May is staying. Nolasco's return, at least for now, means moving Tommy Milone to the bullpen, and while Milone's track record as a starter is superior to those of Nolasco or Mike Pelfrey, I'm not terribly upset about it. This is a temporary measure, I'm sure. There will be an injury or trade before long.

For immediate purposes, another relief pitcher has to go. One obvious possibility, at least to some of us, is the designation of Tim Stauffer for assignment. I believe Stauffer's days are numbered, but also that those numbers are still in double digits -- the Twins seldom undo offseason decisions like that one until mid-May at earliest.

One aspect of this is the vacant role of right-handed setup relief. Imagine that the Twins DIDN'T have to cut down the roster. The bullpen, with Milone added and Thielbar subtracted: would be eight deep:

Lefties: Glen Perkins, Aaron Thompson, Duensing, Milone
Righties: Blaine Boyer, J.R. Graham, Tonkin, Stauffer

Look at those righties and tell me who's getting the ball in the eighth, where Fien has been. Everything we've seen so far says it will be Boyer. I'd prefer Tonkin, but Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan (and probably others in the organization) clearly like Boyer more.

I think (hope?) that the Twins are committed to keeping Graham in a low-leverage role. If Stauffer is sticking for a couple more weeks, that leaves Tonkin for a boomerang return to Rochester. It really would be better to dump Stauffer now, but I don't expect that.

From bad to worse

Ricky Nolasco throws a first-inning pitch Wednesday.
Photos like this remind me that the mystery isn't that
pitchers get hurt, it's that they don't get hurt more often.

I recently ran across this proposed addition to the Beatitudes: Blessed are they with low expectations, for they shall not be disappointed.

This has been a week to test the expectations of Twins fans (and players, and decision makers). The basis for the Twins' expectations this year -- and they seemed to have expectations, even if they were exclusive to the organization -- started this way:

• Ervin Santana deepens the starting rotation;
• Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey all had injury issues last season and should be better this year.

Well. A week ago today news broke that Santana had flunked a steroids test, and he's serving an 80-day suspension. Nolasco opened Wednesday's game throwing 14 straight fastballs and ended his all-too brief outing throwing almost nothing but junk. By Thursday he was on his way to Minneapolis to have his elbow examined.

Also on Thursday, Alex Meyer pitched the opener for the Twins Triple A affiliate, the Rochester (NY) Red Wings. He walked six in five innings, a pretty good indication that he still hasn't worked out his mechanics.

Keep your expectations low, fellow Twins fans.

A night at Target Field

Oswaldo Arcia was charged with an
error in the fourth inning on a ball hit
by Kole Calhoun that resulted in a run
for the visiting Angels.

Here's one bright side to the Twins' low status: Good tickets can be had reasonably on the resale market.

My wife and I darted up to Target Field with lower-deck home plate box seats. We didn't make it through the entire 10-inning, four-and-a-half hour game; it may have been a Friday night, but there was a long drive home and things to do today too. So we missed Trevor Plouffe's game-tying double with two outs in the ninth -- and Jared Burton surrendering the winning run in the 10th.

A few observations, on and off the playing field:

* Danny Santana got the start at shortstop. In the second inning, with a man on first, Brennan Boesch hit a one-hopper just to Santana's right; he tried, a bit awkwardly I thought, to backhand the ball only to have it go off his glove. I marked it an error on my scorecard; the official scorer ruled it a hit.

Still, it was a play I expect a major league shortstop to make; indeed, it was a ball I expect a major league shortstop to turn into a double play. The failure to make that play resulted in a run.

That was the extent of Santana's defensive involvement for four innings. He had four routine plays in the fifth and sixth inning and cleaned them all up.

*Aaron Hicks had a pair of two-out RBI base hits -- left-handed, his weaker side. He's hitting over .200 now.

*Josmil Pinto had a pair of doubles and a walk and scored twice (on those Hicks hits). He also had a passed ball and saw a pair of Angels steal second, although I'm inclined to blame the pitchers more for those steals. Terry Ryan said when they recalled Pinto that his defense had improved; it's hard for me to see the difference.

* Oswaldo Arcia had an impressive home run in the second inning. And in the fourth inning he had an outfielding misadventure (see photo) that cost the Twins a run. Actually, he had another misplay of a ball off the wall in the first inning -- rule a triple rather than a double and error -- that led to yet another run. The slugger giveth and he taketh away, and on the whole in this game, he gaveth too much to the Angels.

* Ricky Nolasco wasn't particularly good, but as you've noticed already, his defense didn't help him much. He went five innings and allowed three runs, two earned; with spotless defense behind him, no runs score. He struck out five and only walked one.

That's the glass half full. On the other hand, he didn't have a one-two-three inning (the fourth would have been had Arcia corralled the Calhoun drive), and the Angels had the leadoff man on in four of the five innings, so he spent most of his time pitching out of the stretch. The misplays didn't put all those leadoff men on, they just moved them along the route home.

* Matt Shoemaker, who started for the Halos, has had a fine season (14-4, 3.14 coming into the game with 115 strikeouts in 117 innings), but he struggled to throw strikes in this one. He threw a lot of offspeed and breaking stuff and only got through four innings. I wasn't impressed, but he's obviously been better.

* This game marked my first encounter with the much-praised rib tips from the Butcher and the Boar stand (near Gate 34). They are not over-rated. Between that and my addiction to the Kramarczuk bratwurst, my carnivore cravings were more than satisfied.

The return of Ricky Nolasco

Ricky Nolasco's ERA
rose to 5.99 with his
poor outing Friday.

Ricky Nolasco's return from the disabled list Friday night was less than a success and not quite a disaster.

The veteran went six innings, allowing five runs, all of them in one awful inning. That was enough for Kansas City to prevail 6-5. Another Twins game in which the starter didn't give the team a chance to win.

One is tempted to focus on the glass half-full. Nolasco's fastball velocity was back to his accustomed levels. He did have five shutout innings.

But his command wasn't great, and the Royals had a number of hard-hit outs. Kansas City is a first-place team, but its record is built on run prevention (pitching and defense); their lineup is not notably potent. The Twins, as weak as they've been at the plate all year, have scored more runs than the Royals. Five runs allowed in six innings isn't good enough against any lineup, much less one as soft as the Royals.

Still, we know that a healthy Nolasco is going to be in the Twins rotation, now and into the future. That's what three more years at $12 million-plus a year means.

There's time for Nolasco to live up to the expectations of that deal. But right now, as I project a future Twins rotation, he ranks below Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone and Kyle Gibson. And it's conceivable -- maybe even expected -- that Alex Meyer will pass him as early as next season.

Conclusion: Nolasco is in the Twins plans. But he ought not be secure in those plans.

Notes, quotes and comment

The MRI on Ricky Nolasco's ailing elbow found no structural damage:

Nolasco's ligament is sound. Had some flexor pronator stiffness on opposite side of elbow . #MNTwins
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) July 8, 2014

So the Twins have put him on the disabled list and called up Chris Herrmann, catcher-outfielder. This gives them an extra bench player for the weekend series in Colorado, where there will be no DH (National League rules). It also thins out the pitching staff for a series in Colorado, where pitchers are known to struggle.

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The debate over whether Nolasco should have told the Twins his elbow hurt or if the team should somehow have been more proactive reminded me of 1988, when Bert Blyleven had a miserable year (10-17, 5.38) and finally went on the disabled list in late July.

The vacationing Blyleven referenced that year, I think, in this tweet:

Sorry to read about Nolasco put on the 15-day DL. I know 1st hand it's not easy to pitch with a sore elbow. Good luck Ricky. Heal quickly!
— Bert Blyleven (@BertBlyleven28) July 8, 2014

I remember thinking in '88 that Blyleven wasn't helping the team by hiding the injury. But, at least from this distance, I'm not sure the alternatives on hand would have been any improvement. The Twins that year got career years from Frank Viola and Allan Anderson; every other starter, including Blyleven, was pretty awful.

This year, the Twins have a very good rotation working in Triple A. The alternatives are better than in '88. And the upside of Nolasco is not comparable to the upside of Blyleven.

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Brian Dozier was named to the AL squad for the Home Run Derby, to be held Monday at Target Field. There's no requirement that a home team guy be in the derby, but you may remember how Robinson Cano was booed a couple years ago in Kansas City for not selecting a Royal (specifically Billy Butler).

Anyway, Dozier will be taking part, and apparently he had already recruited his brother, who pitched in college, to throw to him. I don't know; if by some stroke of luck one of my brothers were in the Derby and asked me to pitch to him, I'd probably accept just to knock him down. But my sibling dynamics may not be normal.

There's one more participant for each league to be named, and the word is that Justin Morneau has told NL captain (and Colorado teammate) Troy Tulowitzki that he won't accept unless he makes the NL All-star team. Right now, he's one of the Final Five candidates, and was reported on Tuesday to be in the lead.

If Morneau is in the Derby, he might get a bigger hand from the Target Field crowd than Dozier.

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In the immediate wake of Miguel Sano's Tommy John surgery, there was speculation that he might be able to DH in the minors in August. That has been ruled out.

Miguel Sano has been ruled out from games until December. Will be in "controlled environment" until then, per Rob Antony.
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) July 8, 2014

So no minor league play for Sano, no Arizona Fall League, maybe winter ball in the Dominican. It's a conservative approach; it may be a wise approach; it is, definitely, a patience-testing approach.

Ricky Nolasco and pitching hurt

Ricky Nolasco's numbers
say he's been the worst
regular starter in the majors.

After Sunday's Nolasco fiasco, Ron Gardenhire insisted that Ricky Nolasco was not injured.

Before Monday night's game in Seattle, the Twins announced that their $47 million pitcher was returning to Minnesota to get an MRI on his right elbow, which has apparently been bothering him all season.

This development was predicable. I gave a few reasons in Monday's post to suspect that Nolasco was hurt -- a decline in velocity, an avoidance of breaking balls -- and just from a performance standpoint, one had to wonder.

I am not surprised that Nolasco continued to take the mound with pain. Nor am I surprised that he waited to reveal the issue until it was obvious he was going to be pulled from the rotation. Any pitcher with 1,300 major-league innings (which Nolasco had on his resume when he signed his four-year deal with the Twins) can be presumed to have some kind of arm damage. Nolasco is getting the big money because he has a track record of eating innings. He's going to get the $47 million even if he blows the elbow out; as long as the Twins think pitching him will help the team, he's going to take the ball.

There might be room to wonder why the Twins didn't more actively question Nolasco's health as the season progressed. A Ron Gardenhire quote tweeted by Mike Berardino suggested a passive approach to monitoring player health:

Gardy: "You can’t just say, 'Well, he was sore, how did you not know that then?' I don’t know anything about them out there." #MNTwins
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) July 8, 2014

Gardy: "I don’t know anything about them out there other than if they walk in here ... and they say, 'I can’t play.' " #MNTwins
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) July 8, 2014

Maybe Nolasco was asked and denied any injury -- in which case, what can anybody else do? Can't DL a guy who says he's not hurt. It finally got to the point where Gardenhire decided pitching Nolasco does more harm to the team than good, and then Nolasco fessed up.

Gardenhire reasonably relies on players to know, and to admit, when their bodies can't handle the task. It appears that the fans (and some in the media) deploy a double standard: Rip the player who says he can't go, rip the player who tries to play hurt and fails.

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A couple minor league notes:

* Trevor May has indeed been scratched from the Futures Game, as LaVelle Neal predicted Sunday. Alex Meyer has been named to the USA team in his stead.

Inasmuch as the Futures Game is intended to feature the best prospects, regardless of how close to the majors they are or the comparative quality of their season stats to date, Meyer is a better match for the spirit of the game. May is more likely to pitch in the majors this year; Meyer is the better prospect.

*Miguel Sano was cleared this weekend to begin throwing, a necessary milestone in his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

A day of 14 pitchers

After Thursday's brutal doubleheader, the Twins called up Logan Darnell to bolster their overworked bullpen and put Aaron Hicks on the concussion disabled list.

This gave the Twins 14 pitchers on the 25-man active roster, which is ... way too many.

As it turned out, they only needed one Friday. Ricky Nolasco threw nine innings of three-run ball, which ought to be good enough but was three runs too many to get a tie. At least the bullpen got a day off.

And the Twins cut back to 13 pitchers after the game. Mike Pelfrey was put on the disabled list (pulled groin) and shortstop Danny Santana is expected in the Twin Cities for this afternoon's game.

I'll forgive anybody skeptical of Pelfrey's conveniently timed injury, but it seems likely that something is wrong with him. His velocity is down several miles per hour, and his command -- which, to be sure, has never been particularly strong -- isn't good either. These things tend to point to an injury, sometimes one the pitcher isn't even aware of (or at least willing to admit to having).

As for Santana ... the idea seems to be that he'll be on the bench waiting for the next player to drop. Eduardo Escobar has the shortstop job until he proves he shouldn't have it, which, as I said a few days ago, makes sense.

It is, once again, a misshapen roster, with three shortstops (Escobar, Santana and Pedro Florimon) and three catchers (Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann). Half the Twins active position players  play the two positions that historically are weakest at the plate.

The Twins are getting use from the catchers: Suzuki the primary catcher, Pinto the regular DH and Herrmann as the fourth outfielder as well as backup receiver. But there doesn't appear to be reason for both Florimon and Santana at this point.

Eye on 2014: The rotation

Kevin Correia was
the best of a bad
rotation in 2013.
He has one year
left on his contract.

Pitchers and catchers report to begin workouts at the Twins spring training camp a week month from today. (Does that make you feel any warmer today? Me neither. It's still cold.)

The Twins caravan rolled through Mankato last night with 2014 bullpenners Brian Duensing and Ryan Pressly in tow. There's been chatter of shifting one or both (Anthony Swarzak as well) to a starting role, but I don't take the idea very seriously. For one thing, all have track records of being better in relief. For another, there isn't a lot of room in the rotation after the signings earlier this offseason.

While the Twins still have roughly $15 million in payroll space for the coming season, and while some of the bigger names in the winter's free-agent field remain unsigned, I figure Terry Ryan and Co. have made their moves. It's possible Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo might settle for what the Twins are offering, but a more likely outcome is that those two will land with teams that don't get the biggest fish in the pitching pool, Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka. And I definitely doubt the Twins would surrender a second-round draft pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez or Edwin Santana to the kind of deals those guys are seeking.

Which means the 2014 rotation shapes up thusly, pitchers ordered by salary commitment:

• Ricky Nolasco
• Phil Hughes
• Kevin Correia
• Mike Pelfrey
• Another 2013 holdover (Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Vince Worley, Andrew Albers, Kyle Gibson)

Nolasco and Hughes represent a significant investment in free agent arms: a pair of four year deals, with Nolasco's being the most expensive signing of a free agent in Twins history (Joe Mauer was a year away from free agency when he signed his big contract) and Hughes the second biggest.

The interesting thing, really, about the signings is that the money is being paid out not on the basis of past accomplishment but on the basis of projection. Nolasco and Hughes have been around long enough to qualify for free agency, but both have considerable "upside" in this sense: Their peripheral stats have always been better than the raw results. Pelfrey's upside comes from being another year removed from his Tommy John surgery.

It's not a playoff-caliber rotation. That comes, if it does, when prospect Alex Meyer and Gibson — or eventually one or more of the younger guns, Kohl Stewart or J.O. Berrios or Lewis Thorpe — emerge as top-of-the-rotation arms and push Nolasco and Hughes down the list (and Correia off completely).

It should be better than 2013's rotation, but that's an excessively low hurdle to clear.