Showing posts with label Justin Morneau. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Morneau. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Justin Morneau, special assistant

A bit of Twins news from north of the border:

The special assistant title doesn't tell us much about what role Morneau figures to have. Some special assistants seem to be pretty much for promotional appearances only; some pick up more emphatically baseball chores. Tom Kelly, until his health concerns, seemed to be pretty deeply involved in pro scouting as a special assistant.

But this does appear to put a period at the end of Morneau's playing days. He had hoped to return in the second half last season, but either didn't get an offer or didn't care for the offer(s) he received. He's one of the many players in baseball history who we can legitimately wonder what if. In his case, what if he hadn't sustained those concussions? You look at the season he was having in 2010 before he took that knee to the head at second base ... wowzers.

So, question: Who was better, Kent Hrbek or Morneau? Morneau has that 2006 MVP (which, in my mind and that of others of a more sabermetric bent than the electorate that year, should have gone to Joe Mauer) and a second-place finish; Hrbek finished second one year but only got votes in one other season. Career WAR goes emphatically to Hrbek, 38.4 to 27.3 (Baseball Reference version), and Hrbek got almost 900 more plate appearances in his career. They both had a rapid decline in their 30s.

I'll go with Hrbek, but it's close.


Friday, June 10, 2016

Notes, quotes and comment (Draft day 1)

High school outfielders and college pitchers. As a general rule, that's what the Twins take in the first round of the draft.

This year, it was a prep outfielder, Alex Kirilloff of Plum, Pennsylvania, which is near Pittsburgh. He's a left-handed hitter with, according to the scouting reports, big power and a right field profile. Presumably he'll sign (he does have a college commitment to Liberty University), and also presumably he's five years or so away from showing up on the major league roster. He was the 15th overall pick.

Minnesota had three other picks on the first day of the draft:

56th pick: prep catcher Ben Rortvedt of Verona, Wisconsin. He was the first high school catcher taken. The ideal policy is to take the best player available, but the Twins system certainly needs catchers. MLB.com and Baseball America each ranked him in the 50s for this draft pool.

73rd pick: prep shortstop Jose Miranda of Puerto Rico. Not yet 18, right handed hitter, likely to get moved to second or third at some point.

74th pick: prep outfielder Akil Baddoo of Georgia. Some speed, some power, or so they said on the MLB Network draft show.

All high schoolers, no collegians for the Twins on Day 1. It will be years if ever for any of them to reach the majors. But they're all guys to dream on, and dreams are what Twins fans have to lean on right now.

---

Trevor May faced three hitters Wednesday. Wild pitch, double, double, single. Then came a homer off the next pitcher, and May was charged with three earned runs in zero innings.

May's ERA is now 6.07. I rather expect him to go on the disabled list.

---

Speaking of bad ERAs ...


---

#OldFriend Justin Morneau signed with the Chicago White Sox and was immediately placed on the disabled list. He had elbow surgery during the winter and says he hopes to be ready after the All Star break.

Even with the White Sox, I wish him well. (It's easier to do so knowing that the Twins aren't contending for anything.)

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Mauer and Morneau

Joe Mauer reported Tuesday to Fort Myers and and was predictably questioned by the assembled media about the Brian Murphy scoop on his blurred vision.

Mauer stood by what he said, and repeated what he thinks the important points are:


  • The problems were sporadic, better on some days, worse on others;
  • "I feel great now." 
We'll see. As I've said before, Mauer's at an age where decline should be expected. Parallels have been drawn to Justin Morneau, who won a batting title at his age 33 season after several years of dealing with post-concussion symptoms. But that's a rather meaningless comparison. Among many other factors, Mauer's not working with Coors Field as a home environment.

---

Morneau, by the way, remains unsigned, and I've not seen his name connected to any team this winter. He was limited to just 49 games and less than 200 plate appearances last season for Colorado, and he turns 35 in May.  He wants to play, but I suspect that he will wind up being one of the many players who don't get to choose when their careers are over.




Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Shows what I know

On Monday, evaluating the Twins catching situation, I surmised here that the Twins would stick with Chris Herrmann as the No. 2 catcher behind Kurt Suzuki.

Tuesday night they optioned Herrmann to Triple A, put Ricky Nolasco on the 60-day disabled list, and pulled Eric Fryer off the U.S. roster for the Pan Am games.

Fryer hit .299 for Rochester this year, albeit with little power (one homer and just seven extra base hits in 184 at-bats). He's regarded as a better defensive receiver than Herrmann, but I think Herrmann, despite his poor major league numbers to date, is a better hitter. Plus Herrmann's left-handedness provided a platoon option, even though Paul Molitor didn't always take advantage of it.

Fryer wasn't on the 40-man roster, but putting Nolasco on the 60-day DL opened a spot for him. Nolasco is to have surgery on his ailing ankle. I don't know how likely he is to return this year. If he does, it probably won't be until September, and the opportunities for him to get tune-up starts in the minors will be limited.

---

Another guy went on the 60-day DL Tuesday: Former Twin Justin Morneau, out since May 16 with yet another concussion.

The Rockies say the move doesn't indicate any deterioration in his condition, and he's about a week away from being eligible to come off the 60-day DL anyway. But reading between the lines, it doesn't appear that the 2006 AL MVP and last year's NL batting champ is going to be able to take the field any time soon.

To repeat what I've said before about Morneau and his brain injuries: It's his life and his health, but it's probably in his best interest to retire.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Ex-Twins Watch: Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau hits a double on Monday in Coors Field.
Justin Morneau's post-Twins career didn't start so well last year, when he struggled to produce any power for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the last month of the season. This year, it's another story.

Entering Monday's games, the Colorado Rockies first baseman had put up a slash line of .344/.371/.609 — and he popped a double in his first at-bat Monday night, his sixth two-bagger of the young season.

It's early, of course. And Coors Field, even with the humidor, remains a boost to hitting numbers.

But Morneau's been productive so far in the Rockies' road games, with a slash line of .324/.314/. 559 outside of Coors. (His home numbers entering Monday: .367/.429.667.) It's interesting, but not necessarily significant, that he has yet to draw a walk on the road, which leads to the rarity of an on-base percentage that is lower than the batting average.

I'm happy to see things going well for Morneau. Once it became obvious that Joe Mauer's catching days were over, there was no reasonable path to Morneau's return to Minnesota, but that's no knock on him or the Twins.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Morneau to the Rockies

Justin Morneau with Team Canada
in the World Baseball Classic.
For Twins fans, it perhaps got lost in all the signings of free agent pitchers, but former franchise cornerstone Justin Morneau has signed with the Colorado Rockies.


When the Twins traded Morneau to Pittsburgh, I figured there was a good chance he'd return to Minnesota. But then Joe Mauer's concussion recovery dragged on, and Morneau showed almost no power with the Pirates, and the likelihood dwindled. When the Twins announced that Mauer would abandon catching, it was obvious that Morneau was not coming through that door.

And I'm fine with that. The former MVP turns 33 in May, and he has not been the same hitter since the notorious concussion that cut off what was shaping up to be a career season in 2010. Coors Field, the extremely hitter-friendly yard in Denver, may well recharge Morneau's numbers, but realistically, he's on the decline.

Sentimentally, Twins fans will miss Morneau. But there really wasn't a place for him on this rebuilding squad. He is no longer potent enough a hitter to force a team to make room for him.

Morneau's new contract reflects his diminished status: Two years, $12.5 million. Not terrible money, but he got $14 million last season. His pay has been more than halved.

So now Morneau, who was wearing 33 with the Twins in part to honor fellow British Columbian Larry Walker, will play for the team Walker is most identified with. The Rockies have not officially retired Walker's 33, although that is a possibility. But I imagine Morneau will get to wear 33 for the Rox.

And he'll be reunited with Michael Cuddyer, another former mainstay of the Minnesota lineup and the defending National League batting champ. (Coors Field, remember?) Another former Twin on the Rockies roster is LaTroy Hawkins, although there wasn't a lot of overlap between the Hawk and Morneau (a part of 2003).

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Will Morneau return?

Justin Morneau, speed demon: He scored from second
base Wednesday on an infield single. It was the only
run the Pirates scored in the 6-1 series-decider.
Justin Morneau's season came to an end Wednesday night. He had two singles and scored a run for Pittsburgh in Game Five, but that was hardly enough to get the Pirates past St. Louis.

He'll be part of the free agent field after the World Series, and I really wonder how much demand there will be for him.

Morneau hit an even .300 in the Division Series, but it was a soft .300, with just one extra-base hit (a double) and no runs batted in. Most of the blame for the lack of ribbies should be laid on Sterling Marte and Neal Walker, the Pirates' No. 1 and No. 2 hitters, who combined to go 1-for-38 in the five games, but still ... Morneau never hit a home run for Pittsburgh, not in the regular season, not in the playoffs.

Mike Bernadino of the Pioneer Press said on Twitter late in the game that he expects Morneau to return to the Twins:




As I said a few days ago, I'm inclined to believe the Twins will point Joe Mauer to first base and tell him to have a good rest of his career there. I suppose that, even if Mauer is done catching, that the Twins could split the first base and DH jobs between the two.

But why bother? The fact that Pirates manager Clint Hurdle stubbornly kept Morneau in the cleanup spot notwithstanding, the evidence that Morneau belongs in the middle of the lineup now is thin to nonexistent. He might be more an road block than a bridge to the next outstanding Twins team.

I don't like saying this. My emotions want Morneau back, never wanted him to leave, even for this brief period. My logic says it's time for the organization to move on.

Monday, October 7, 2013

Duke Welker and Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau is greeted in the Pittsburgh dugout after
scoring a run in Game Two of their series with the Cardinals.
Duke Welker was officially named Saturday as the second player (the other being outfielder Alex Presley) the Twins got from Pittsburgh in the Justin Morneau trade.

Welker's a 6-foot-7 right-handed relief pitcher, age 27, whose fastball sits around 93 mph and occasionally touches 97. He has all of 1.1 major-league innings on his resume, so it's a reasonable assumption that his velocity isn't enough. He has good Triple A strikeout rates, bad walk rates.

I expect Welker to compete come spring for the bullpen job occupied this year by Josh Roenicke — not quite a set-up man, not quite a long reliever.

His addition brings the Twins "unofficial" roster count to 38. (This is a more accurate tally than the official roster, which doesn't include Sam Deduno or Wilkin Ramirez, who remain on the 60-day disabled list.)

Morneau, meanwhile, is hitting cleanup for the Pirates in the NLDS, which would seem to refute my earlier claims that he no longer belongs in the middle of a major league lineup. Through Sunday, he was 5-for-17 (.294) in four postseason games, with one double.

Morneau did have a rather punchless September for the Buccos: slash line .260/.370/.312. That's a real nice OPB, and a slugging percentage that makes Nick Punto look powerful (career slugging percentage .325).

When the Twins traded Morneau, I estimated a 50 percent chance that he'd return to Minnesota as a free agent. I don't think it's anywhere near that high now.  Between the severity of Joe Mauer's concussion and the strong September of Josmil Pinto, I think it's more likely that Mauer will be the Minnesota first baseman next year. And if not in 2014, certainly in 2015. If Mauer's the first baseman, Morneau's not coming back.

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Morneau traded to Pittsburgh

Justin Morneau leaves the Twins having moved ahead of
Tony Oliva on the Minnesota career home run list.
Well, it happened, after all. Justin Morneau -- 2006 MVP, franchise cornerstone and part-time Lake Crystal resident -- was traded Saturday to Pittsburgh for a reserve outfielder (Alex Presley) and a player to be named.

I'll write in more detail about the trade for the Monday print column. For now, I'll just acknowledge mixed feelings about this deal.

The sentimentalist in me, and it's a bigger part of my personality than I care to admit, wanted Morneau to spend his entire career in a Twins uniform. The realist in me recognizes that Morneau is not the hitter he was before the concussions and other injuries and is certain that the next good Twins team will not have Morneau as a key player.

I'm saddened by his departure. I recognize its inevitability, its necessity, even its virtue.

And I hope he helps Pittsburgh win the World Series.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Who's on first next year?

Justin Morneau looks at umpire C.B. Bucknor
after being called out on strikes.
The Monday print column expanded a bit on a post from last week about Joe Mauer and the possibility that his current concussion will hasten a position change for the Twins star.

But let's say Mauer remains the Twins primary catcher. What are the first base options for 2014?

Justin Morneau will be a free agent this winter. For all the trade speculation that surrounded the former MVP this summer, there really appears to have been limited interest in him elsewhere.

He's no longer a franchise centerpiece and doesn't belong in the middle of the order anymore, but ... he's probably more valuable to the Twins than he is to anybody else, he's put down roots in Minnesota, and the rise of the likes of Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton means the Twins may, as early as the middle of 2014, be in a position to move Morneau to a place in the bottom half of the lineup.

Current take: I'd say it's at least 50-50 that Morneau is the Twins first baseman next year.

Chris Parmelee, long the heir apparent at first base, was the regular right fielder early on but didn't hit. He was optioned out at the All-Star break, a move that surprised me more than it probably should have, and ... he hasn't hit in Rochester either (.225/.331/.355). It's the dismal slugging percentage that is most alarming. I really expected him to grab Triple A by the throat, as he did in 2012. That didn't happen.

Current take: I think Parmelee is out of options after this season. He may not get a September call-up. He certainly can't be prominent in the front office's plans for 2014.

Chris Colabello has bounced up and down between Minnesota and Rochester in the second half. The minor league veteran has dominated the International League but has been highly strikeout-prone in limited major-league at-bats.

Current take: I have difficulty imagining the Twins committing this offseason to Colabello as a regular. He has a better shot than Parmelee, but his best chance is as an injury replacement.

Jose Abreu is an intriguing notion, and probably the free agent first baseman with the most potential to pay off. He's a Cuban defector, 26, who has been a masher in the top league on the island. He's establishing residency in Haiti and his immigration status is far from settled, but the speculation is that someone will offer him a six-year, $60 million deal to play in the United States when he's cleared.

Current take: The Twins don't have a track record of pursuing big-bucks free agents, and they don't appear often in the "informed speculation" around Abreu. That kind of talk has focused on the likes of Texas, Boston and the Mets. But few thought Oakland would land Yoenis Cepedes, and few connected Cincinnati with Aroldis Chapman; the big-market teams haven't often splurged on the Cubans. The Twins have the budget room to make a $10 million-a-year commitment (especially with Morneau coming off the books); it's far from certain they have the gambler's mentality the move would take.

Conclusion

All of this hinges on Mauer. If he and the Twins want to keep him as a primary catcher, first base is there to be filled. If it's deemed time to move him, first base is his most likely destination, and everybody else is out of luck.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Justin Morneau and the implications of waivers

Justin Morneau's slash line this season:
.262/.318/.423. The slash line for the
average AL first baseman: .257/.330/.442.

Justin Morneau reportedly cleared waivers Wednesday. That clears the way for the Twins to trade their longtime first baseman and 2006 MVP to anybody the rest of the season.

That's the theory, at any rate. The reality is that the other 29 major league teams each effectively declared that they're not interested in picking up the $3.4 million or so remaining on his contract.

Any trade involving Morneau will require the Twins to pay some, if not all, of his salary the rest of the way. And the reports at the non-waiver deadline two weeks ago held that the Twins weren't willing to do that.

My guess — purely a guess, without any inside info — is that there will be no Morneau trade, that he will finish out the season with the Twins.

Another, semi-related question concerns future seasons. No matter who Morneau finishes the 2013 season with, he's a free agent this winter. Will the Twins want to bring him back? If so, at what price, and is it a price he's willing to accept? His passage through waivers suggests that he's headed for a steep pay cut in 2014, no matter who he signs with.

I do believe this: If he does return, the Twins should be upfront with him about a reduced role in the lineup. Oswaldo Arcia is already making an impact in the major league lineup; at some point in 2014 Miguel Sano will be also, and possibly Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario as well. Those men, along with Joe Mauer, will be the muscle of the Minnesota lineup very soon.

Morneau is used to hitting 3-4-5. He doesn't really belong there anymore. If he's kept around as the new wave comes, he will need to accept that he will, sooner or later, be in the bottom half of the lineup. If he lets that bruise his ego, the Twins would do better to let him leave.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Considering trade options

Ryan Doumit was charged Sunday with his first
outfielding error of the season on this line drive.
The July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Twins, obviously, will be in "seller" mode.

But we often don't ask the right question about possible trades. The common question is something like: Should the Twins trade Glen Perkins? whereas the proper question is: Would the return on Perkins be worth trading him? (Answer: probably not.)


There is a general anticipation that the Twins will trade Justin Morneau this week. I wonder if there wouldn't be more value in trading Ryan Doumit, or at least more interest on the part of other teams in Doumit.

Morneau is a first baseman who can also DH. Doumit is properly thought of as a DH who can be used at catcher or a corner outfield. Morneau is a free agent after the season; Doumit has a year left on his contract at $3.5 million.

Both are more valuable for their hitting than for their defense, and neither is hitting all that well; Doumit is having the worst offensive season of his career.And the midseason trade market for hitters is frequently softer than for pitchers, although the possibility that some significant hitters for playoff contenders (notably Nelson Cruz of Texas) are about to be suspended may raise the demand.


The Twins do have the catcher/outfielder to take Doumit's roster role in Chris Herrmann. The two have been splitting right field and catching chores during Joe Mauer's paternity leave; trading Doumit would probably require bringing back one of the Oswaldo Arcia-Chris Parmelee duo shipped out to the minors just before the All-Star break, and I'm not sure the Twins are eager to do that.

But the key issue, again, is what kind of return the Twins could get. And I suspect it's more likely the Twins would get enough to move Doumit.


Thursday, July 25, 2013

Infield flies and lousy at-bats

Doug Bernier heads to first base after
being hit by a pitch in the ninth inning.
Before I get into the bizarre ninth inning of Wednesday's Twins game, let me say that the game was NOT decided by the one at-bat. The Twins lost that game because they mustered exactly as many hits Wednesday as Maddie Mauer had babies. Teams have been known to win while being two-hit, but it's not done often or easily.

That said: I told my wife upon seeing the umpiring crew at the start of Monday's game that it was a bad crew. Mike Muchlinski and Alfonso Marquez? One of them is a bad sign; the both of them is practically a guarantee of a screw-up. This is probably the kind of low-grade crew a series pitting a pair of sub-.500 clubs should expect to see as the season dwindles, but it doesn't make the crew's inability to get the infield fly rule right any more palatable.

OK, the ninth inning. The Angels of Anaheim have a 1-0 lead and Ernesto Frieri, the closer the Twins had lit up for five runs less than 20 hours earlier, on the hill.

Frieri opens the frame by walking Clete Thomas. Doug Bernier fouls off two bunt attempts; Frieri then hits him with the 0-2 pitch. Two on, no outs, Justin Morneau up.

Now ... There were maybe three guys in the Minnesota lineup Wednesday who wouldn't be given the bunt sign in this situation, and Morneau is one of them. (The others are Ryan Doumit and perhaps Trevor Plouffe; chasing a tangent, Plouffe was allowed to hit away in a two-on, no-out ninth inning within the past week and hit into a double play, and Ron Gardenhire was second-guessing himself about that decision afterwards.)

Frieri opens with ball one. So ... a walk, a HBP, an immediate ball one. One might well conclude that any hitter should at this point be taking the next pitch. Let Frieri continue to beat himself. But it's Morneau, the former MVP, in a lineup of castoffs and unprovens. He's the best shot at getting the big hit.

So his thought process at this point should be: This is practically a 3-0 count. Look for a fastball that's in just the right place. Zone in on that and take anything else. If Morneau swings at the 1-0 pitch, he should hit a rocket.

Morneau swings at the 1-0 pitch and, instead of a rocket, hits a 60-foot pop-up. The umpires lack the wits to invoke the infield fly rule — crew chief Ted Barrett misquotes the rule after the game, saying Frieri had to be camped under it to make the call, which is NOT what the rulebook says — and the Angels turn it into a double play with Bernier hung out to dry. If he takes off for second, Frieri catches the pop-up and doubles him off first; Bernier instead clings to first, Frieri lets the ball drop, throws Morneau out and gets Bernier in the rundown.

The umps blew the call. Morneau blew the at-bat.

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Contemplating Justin Morneau

O Canada: Justin Morneau prepares
to unload on a pitch against Italy.
Justin Morneau went 7-for-11 in the World Baseball Classic, a .636 batting average. Team Canada went 1-2 in Pool D and is out of the tournament, but it was hardly Morneau's fault.

There is a growing expectation in Twins Territory that Morneau is finally ready to return to the levels of production he had in the mid-00s, before the various injuries — back, neck, wrist, concussion — either sapped his skills or knocked him out of the lineup completely.

Morneau hasn't had a good full season since 2008. But he came to camp looking better than last year, and he's been hammering all spring (the WBC stats aren't out of line with his Grapefruit League numbers).

This is the last year of his contract, and it appears that both he and the Twins organization thought it best this winter to let it stand.

It's understandable on both sides. Morneau's injuries have obviously lessened his bargaining power, which make this a bad time for him to seek a new contract; they have increased the risk for the team should it make a further long-term commitment to him.

Imagine, for the moment, that Morneau (who turns 32 in May) has a big year. Imagine, too, that Chris Parmelee establishes himself as a genuine quality major league hitter, and that Oswaldo Arcia tears up the high minors. That's the optimal situation for the Twins, and it's hardly out of the question — and it's hardly certain either.

If that's the case, the rise of Parmelee and Arcia gives the Twins useful options as they consider what part they want of Morneau's future. The Twins could ride out 2013 with Morneau and either re-sign him after the season or make a qualifying offer and collect a draft pick when he signs elsewhere. Or they could trade him in July and commit to Parmelee at first base and Arcia in right field.

All that, let me emphasize, is based on the "ifs" going the Twins' way with those three. They haven't had a lot of "ifs" turn out in their favor in recent seasons.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Links: Morneau and Gardenhire

I'm feeling a mite guilty about such a meatless post this morning, so here are a couple of more chewable items:

1) Jon Morosi provides this piece on Justin Morneau, his health and his future. Nothing ground-breaking here, but a decent overview of his status.

I noted this factual error in it:

Of the 20 Twins to appear in their riveting one-game playoff victory over Detroit for the 2009 AL Central title, only (Joe) Mauer and Morneau are still with the team.
The truth is, Morneau didn't play in that game. He saw his last action that year on Sept. 12, then was found to have a stress fracture in his back. That was really the beginning of his shaky health status.

Justin Morneau,
February 2012
Justin Morneau,
February 2013
Regarding Morneau's health and conditioning status, check out these two mug shots. A little different, aren't they? This year's model's a little beefier, I dare say.

2) Emma Span of Sports on Earth provides this analysis of the managers on one-year deals and their likelihood of getting fired during the season. As she sees it, Ron Gardenhire is on thinner ice than anybody else on a one-year deal. (She may have less esteem for his managerial abilities than I do.)


Thursday, December 20, 2012

What the Kendrys Morales trade tells us about Justin Morneau's value

Kendrys Morales shattered his ankle in 2010 celebrating
a walk-off grand slam.
Here are two first basemen/DHs in 2012:

  • Kendrys Morales of the Angels: 522 plate appearances, 22 homers, .273/.320/.467.
  • Justin Morneau of the Twins: 570 plate appearances, 19 homers, .267/.333/.440.

Fairly similar 2012 seasons, right? Each suffered a major injury in midseason 2010 that not only ended that year but wrecked 2011 as well. While both played regularly in 2012, neither was quite at the level they had been at before the 2010 injury. (For Morales, it was a fractured ankle; for Morneau, it was a concussion). Both are to be free agents after the 2013 season.

There are a couple of significant differences, however. Morneau turns 32 in May and will be paid $14 million next season; Morales is a bit more than two years younger and is much cheaper (arbitration eligible).

The Angels traded Morales on Wednesday to the Seattle Mariners for Jason Vargas, a left-handed starter who is basically what the Twins hope Scott Diamond is. Vargas gave the Mariners about 200 innings each of the past three seasons, 30-plus starts each year, ERA of 3.96 for the three years combined. Good but not great.

Vargas, too, will be eligible for free agency after 2013.

That's what a near-match for Justin Morneau fetched in a trade: One year of a No. 3 starter.

This trade convinces me that Morneau isn't getting dealt this winter. The Twins still have a place in their lineup for Morneau; the Angels, having just signed Josh Hamilton, didn't really have a role for Morales. That they traded him in the division suggests that Vargas was the best offer they had for the big Cuban.

Terry Ryan isn't likely to trade Morneau for anything less than a significant long-term pitcher -- a trade along the lines of the Denard Span deal. And I don't think that's coming this offseason.

Come the trading deadline, maybe.


Monday, August 27, 2012

Pursuing a tangent: Trading Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau takes Saturday's home run around the bases.
The first baseman is hitting .322/.368/.517 since the
All-Star break.

Following up on the Monday print column, about last week's waiver-wire megadeal between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Dodgers:

Dylan Hernandez,  Dodgers beat writer for the Los Angeles Times, reported in an offhand reference on Saturday that the trade came together after "after a failed attempt to land Minnesota Twins first baseman Justin Morneau last week."

Hernandez did not detail that "failed attempt," and an inquiry into an August deal for Morneau could easily have failed because Morneau didn't make it through waivers. (Waivers go by league first, so if, any American League team claimed Morneau, the Twins couldn't trade him to the Dodgers.) Or the Twins could have had no interest in trading the former MVP.

That latter might be a mistake. The Boston-L.A. trade came as a surprise to many because the Dodgers were willing to take on almost all of some very large contracts (not only Gonzalez but Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford) AND surrender two significantly talented but unestablished pitchers in Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster.

Such trades are increasingly rare. Usually teams will give up that caliber of prospect only if the trading partner picks up most of the contract obligation.

Morneau himself would have been far cheaper than Gonzalez. Morneau is getting $14 million this year and $14 million in 2013, the final year of his contract; Gonzalez won't pull in less than $21 million in any season through 2018. And that comparison doesn't include the poison pills of Crawford and Beckett, owed a total of $133 million on their contracts.

There are three potential reasons for the Twins to trade Morneau:

  • To free up payroll space;
  • To open a position for Chris Parmelee;
  • To upgrade pitching talent.

I suspected during the speculation leading to the trading deadline that any Morneau offers the Twins were getting met no more than two of those reasons, and perhaps only the second.

It's worth remembering that for most of July Morneau was hitting under .260 and had done almost nothing against left-handed pitching all season. Low-ball offers then were quite likely. (It's also worth remembering that Parmelee's assault on International League pitching this season wasn't quite as noteworthy as it appears today, partly because he had spent so much time sitting on the major league bench.)

Boil the issue down to this question: Would a trade of Morneau for Webster and de la Rosa fly?

I think the Dodgers would have done that last week; I think it would have made sense for the Twins as well. I also think the timing was wrong for it. Morneau's resurgence likely made it impossible to get him through waivers.

And I think that just because the Dodgers would have taken the contract and given the prospects doesn't mean other trading partners will do both. This could easily have been a unique opportunity.


Friday, May 25, 2012

The franchise home run list

Justin Morneau cranks out the first of his two home runs
on Thursday. It was estimated at 451 feet, and ESPN
reported that it was the longest lefty-on-lefty homer of 2012.
Justin Morneau hit a pair of homers Thursday, which prompted a tweet from Dustin Morse noting that Morneau (193) had tied and passed Torii Hunter for seventh on the Twins all-time HR list.

Note the wording: The Twins list, not the franchise list. The Twins have been in Minnesota since 1961, which is a good stretch of years, but still shy of the 60 years in Washington.

When the Twins talk about their all-time leaders, they generally don't include the years in Washington. The all-time Twins leader in pitching wins, therefore, is Jim Kaat, with 190. But if you include the Senators years, it's Walter Johnson with 411. (Kaat's still second, and being second to the Big Train is no embarrassment.)

But when it comes to home runs, the Minnesota list is pretty much the franchise list. You have to get down to ninth on the list to find a player (Roy Sievers) whose career predated the shift to Minnesota.

The reason: Griffith Stadium. The long-departed Washington park was emphatically not conducive to power hitters. For most of its existence, it was 405 feet down the left field line — and got deeper from there. Right field wasn't so spacious, but it did sport a 30-foot wall.

In 1945, the Senators hit one home run at home all season — and it was an inside-the-parker. Sam Rice, who starred for Washington for 19 years and made the Hall of Fame, never hit a ground-rule homer in Griffith.

When Calvin Griffith inherited the team, he shortened the fences and made life a bit easier for right-handed sluggers like Sievers, Jim Lemon and a youngster named Killebrew.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Morneau and the roster (updated)

Justin Morneau breaks his bat in his first at-bat Monday.
It is a rule of life in general and the internet in particular: In the absence of hard information, speculation abounds.

We have little reliable information about the wrist injury that is sending Justin Morneau back to Minnesota for an exam. But sidelining him has reduced the Twins position player roster to dangerous levels.

They are carrying 13 pitchers, an alignment that was intended to end with last week's off day but continues because the starting rotation has been so putrid. Thirteen pitchers leaves room for 12 position players. Now one of those 12, Morneau, isn't even with the team, so it's 11. Joe Mauer reportedly could not run Monday night, so that tightens things further. That's not much wriggle room for the manager.

Let's assume, for the sake of discussion, that the Twins make a quick decision to put Morneau on the disabled list. What would the likely move be?

Possibility One: The return of Drew Butera, which would make it easier for Ron Gardenhire (or Scott Ulger, who will run the team this weekend while Gardenhire attends his daughter's college graduation) to use either Mauer or Ryan Doumit as the designated hitter.

Possibility Two: The return of Luke Hughes, who washed out fast with Oakland and is currently in the limbo of waivers. Hughes is right-handed, so he could platoon at first base with Chris Parmelee. But the Twins may not want to go there again. (Another potential advantage, that Hughes was already on the West Coast, isn't there — the A's were in Baltimore during the weekend and are still out East, so Hughes is no closer to the Twins than the minor leaguers are.)

Possibility Three: Some minor league DH/1B, such as Matt Carson or Aaron Bates. It seems unlikely.

The Butera move is the most likely, with Parmelee getting more regular time at first base, Mauer and Doumit splitting catcher and DH starts, and Trevor Plouffe and Clint Thomas sharing right field.

But that's just speculation.

Addendum: Butera is on his way to Orange County, Calif., and is to be activated in time for tonight's game. The corresponding roster move has yet to be made; Morneau may go on the DL, or one of those 13 pitchers is sent down or waived. It all depends on what the wrist examiner concludes.

Late night: Angels 4, Twins 3

C.J. Wilson allowed just six baserunners in 7.1 innings,
but three of them scored.
Box score here

Game story here

Nick Blackburn was pretty good for Nick Blackburn -- three runs in six innings, one of them the result of Josh Willingham losing a ball in the lights -- but C.J. Wilson was better. As he should be; Wilson is simply the better pitcher.

I keep expecting Wilson to get hurt -- his delivery displays what is known in some circles as an "inverted W," which is thought in those circles to put undue strain on the elbow -- but he has survived two full seasons in the rotation plus extended playoff runs.

More significant, perhaps, than the outcome of Monday's game was the mid-game departure of Justin Morneau with wrist soreness. How serious it is, is unknown. Ron Gardenhire said Morneau will fly back to see a hand specialist.

A handful of other points:

*Chris Parmelee got his first start since his beaning. He didn't play against Kansas City, in part because the Royals started a pair of left-handers, and Gardenhire is limiting Parmelee's exposure to southpaws. But he started against Wilson, one of the tougher lefties in the league, in no small part because Joe Mauer finally sat out a game.

Parmelee got hit by a pitch to open the three-run seventh inning rally against Wilson, which is probably a good sign in that it suggests that he's not flinching away from lefties. He did go 0-for-3 against Wilson and lefty reliever Scott Downs.

* Alexi Casilla doubled Parmelee home, and earlier had a single and two steals. He singled with two outs in the ninth. After the game of April 22, he was hitting .227; since then he's 8-for-16 and he's at .300.

* Jared Burton relieved in the eighth and blew through the inning on just nine pitches. He now leads the team in appearances with 11, although there are three others with 10 and another with nine. Gardenhire has generally avoided using his relievers on consecutive days, although Burton did so Sunday-Monday.

Ex-Twins in the news: Luke Hughes, axed by the Twins a bit more than a week ago, played in four games for Oakland and now has been designated for assignment by the A's. He went 1-for-13 and committed three errors, so it's difficult to defend his play there.

Still, Oakland gave him the boot to make room for Brandon Inge, and I see this as going with the the guy they know can't play rather than the guy they think can't play.

* Delmon Young was suspended seven games by MLB for his New York arrest.

The Tigers put Young on the restricted list after the incident, a move apparently forced by the new collective bargaining agreement.. It's definitely different from the way the Tigers handled Miguel Cabrera's drunken arrests (2009 ans 2011). Of course, Cabrera is a star; Young is not.