Eye on 2014: Designated hitter

Jason Kubel with Arizona last season. It was not a good year.

Oswaldo Arcia is Jason Kubel a decade ago: Left-handed hitting corner outfielder, not particularly adept defensively, a bit overlooked because of a pair of brighter rising talents.

In Kubel's case those talents were Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. In Arcia's, they're Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano.

Kubel never achieved quite the level of performance expected. A big part of that was the devastating knee injury he suffered in the Arizona Fall League. That injury took away what speed was part of his game. To what extent it limited his hitting is more difficult to tell, but Kubel never hit lefties at all.

And now Kubel, age 31, prepares to report to Fort Myers on a minor-league, make-good contract. He's coming off a injury-troubled 2013 in which he hit .216/.293/.317 with Arizona and Cleveland, and coming off a winter in which he presumably drew no major-league offers. How else to explain his return to Target Field -- a hitting environment he was known to dislike -- on a minor-league deal?

He's still the favorite to open the season with the DH job. The odd thing about that is that Kubel is probably a better defensive outfielder than either Josh Willingham or Arcia. But Arcia should be given the opportunity to grow, and my guess is that Willingham as an outfielder will have more trade value in midseason than Kubel as an outfielder will.

Kubel now has almost no value, hence the minor-league deal. If he doesn't hit in 2014, he might not get another shot anywhere.

Eye on 2014: Right field

Oswaldo Arcia had his struggles last season,
but he should be allowed to play through them.

Oswaldo Arcia spent much of 2013 bouncing around. Rochester to Minnesota for location, lineup to bench for role.

He's just 22 — turns 23 in May — and despite 378 major league at-bats last year, he's hardly established himself. His .251./.304/.430 slash line was marred by an awful strikeout rate (117 K's, a rate of almost 31 percent). The strikeouts often came in discouraging bunches, leading to benchings and demotions.

My hope for 2014 is that Ron Gardenhire will simply stick Arcia in a power slot of the lineup — I would prefer it be cleanup, but I'll accept fifth — and let him play through the slumps. Arcia is the one corner outfield candidate this spring who figures to have a role on the next good Twins team. This is the year to get him established.

This is one case where Gardy's disdain for platoons is a unalloyed plus for the Twins. Arcia hasn't hit lefties in the majors, but his exposure to them is limited. He young, he's high-ceiling. Earl Weaver wouldn't platoon him at this point, and Weaver looked for reasons to platoon players. Gardenhire is the opposite — he looks for reasons not to platoon, and sometimes finds reasons that don't really exist — and that frequently hurts the team. It doesn't in this case. Arcia's got to play to find his future.

Whether that future is as an outfielder or a designated hitter is uncertain. The Twins are typically reluctant to have a regular DH, all the more so when the projected DH is a young player, as Arcia is. For this year, at least, it makes sense to play him regularly in the outfield, if only to see if he can get better in the field. He was atrocious last year -- worse, according to the defensive metrics I pay attention to, than Josh Willingham -- and I know of no good reason for him to be that bad.

There are other young outfielders in the organization, however, and if Arcia hits the way his minor league track records suggests he will, he'd be worth playing as a pure DH. First he has to hit, however. And if he's given consistent playing time, he will.

Eye on 2014: Center field

Aaron Hicks had some moments of athletic
brilliance in 2013, but the year as a whole was
a disaster for the rookie.

There will be two kinds of center fielders in the Twins spring training camp.

One kind is Bryon Buxton. The other kind are the placeholders, the ones whose longer term purpose is as bench guys or as a marginal corner outfielder.

The placeholder candidates for center field are Alex Presley, Aaron Hicks and, although he's not now on the 40-man roster, Darin Mastroianni.

A recent SB Nation piece — a real hype-feeder — suggests that Buxton could, right now, hit .260 in the majors, steal 30 bases and play Gold-Glove level defense. I am quite certain of the latter and regard the other two assertions as genuinely possible. And if those three projections are accurate, Buxton would be the best center fielder for 2014 the Twins have.

Even if true, that doesn't mean he should get the job. The problem, of course, is service time. Bring Buxton up now, and the service time clock starts ticking while he's still developing. Another year of seasoning and growth means that the Twins will get more bang for their buck when he arrives. Patience is not an easy sell, but it's still the wiser course.

Realistically, the spring battle is between Presley and Hicks. Hicks has the higher ceiling, but the mystery is: After last season's debacle, it's difficult to see what he can do in spring training to win the job.

Remember, Hicks had a sensational spring last year. Then the season started, and he. Didn't. Hit. And his game didn't get any better when the Twins sent him to Triple A. Even if he has a sensational spring this year, why would we buy into it?

Hicks has the higher ceiling, Presley the higher floor. My guess is that Presley will get the center field job to open the season. He'll hit leadoff, provide an empty batting average and mediocre defense and be easily shoved aside when the time comes for Buxton. Hicks should go to Triple A and earn his next shot.

Presley's role on a good team, at most, would be as a fourth or fifth outfielder, a bench guy. Mastroianni has the same ceiling, but at this point has to demonstrate that last season's ankle injuries haven't robbed him of his speed. Hicks could be, should be, a regular center fielder somewhere someday, but it won't be in Minnesota. He'll have to hit better than he has to be a center fielder, and a whole lot better to be a corner outfielder.

Eye on 2014: Left field

Josh Willingham
hit 35 homers in 2012
but fell off to 14
last year.

We know this: Josh Willingham, if healthy, will be the Twins left fielder to open the season.

Whether he will be there at season's end is another matter.

Willingham turns 35 this month, and this is the last year of his contract. Outfield is one of the minor league system's strong suits, and I don't expect the Twins to make a strong push to retain him past 2014.

Even healthy, he may not be particularly valuable. He doesn't help a team in the field or on the bases, and his offense is basically limited to the long ball. Power is a valued commodity, of course, and if the Hammer is healthy and productive this summer, there might be a trade market for him.

That's the best case scenario for the Twins with him: That he's fully recovered from last year's knee injury and hitting well into the summer, making him a useful trade chip. But we shouldn't delude ourselves into believing that he could be traded for a high-end pitcher, or even a high-end prospect. At his best, Willingham is a flawed player, and there's a limit to what teams will surrender for a two- or three-month rental.

Heck, he's basically the same player as Nelson Cruz — right-handed slugger, an "outfielder" of minimal defensive value — except that Willingham is two years older. Cruz can't find a taker on the free agent market, although a big part of that is that he will cost a draft pick and presumably he's seeking more than twice Willingham's salary. (Cruz turned down a qualifying offer from Texas, which would be something in excess of $14 million for one year; Willingham is to get $7 million this year.)

OK: Say the Twins do move Willingham in July. Who's in line to take the job?

(This speculation is based on the theory that the corner outfield spots to open the season will be manned by Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia with Jason Kubel as the DH.)

One possibility would be that this is the trade that opens a lineup slot for Miguel Sano. Trevor Plouffe moves from third to the outfield, and Sano steps in at third.

A non-Sano possibility — or a non-Plouffe one — would have Chris Parmelee or Chris Colabello gaining playing time, Parmelee most likely as an outfielder and Colabello as a DH, with Kubel playing in the field.

And there's Aaron Hicks. He may not open the season in the majors, but in that case he may well be a mid-season callup.

There's also the possibility that Byron Buxton will pull a Mike Trout and so dominate Double A that the Twins feel compelled to bring him to the bigs ahead of their preferred schedule.

All this, of course, assumes that Willingham is productive enough that somebody else will want him for the stretch drive. That's not guaranteed.

Eye on 2014: Shortstop

Incumbent Pedro Florimon was good in the field
and not at the plate.

Incumbent shortstop Pedro Florimon said during TwinsFest that he had been told going into the 2013 season that he was the Twins shortstop. He also said he had not been given that assurance this winter.

And he shouldn't be a sure thing. Florimon was one of the better defensive shortstops in the majors last season -- by Baseball Info Systems' runs saved and plus minus metrics, he was probably the best in the non-Andrelton Simmons division -- but his offensive numbers were awful (.221/.281/.330).

Rermember: The Twins were near the bottom of the AL in runs scored. They can't easily afford to give up a lineup spot.

But who else might the Twins turn to to man the position? Florimon is clearly Option A still, but there are two other possibilities on the 40-man roster, and one not on anybody's roster.

Option B: Eduardo Escobar. Like Florimon, Escobar is a switch hitter with a good-field no-hit reputation. .He is two years younger than the incumbent, and he did have an impressive batting line in Rochester after the Twins sent him down at the All-Star break (.307/.380/.500).

If that slash line were valid, Escobar might well be a better choice than Florimon. The problem is, those two months aren't backed up with any other indication that he can hit.

Option C: Danny Santana. He's hit for good averages in High A (2012) and Double A (2013); Baseball America listed him as the Twins' No. 7 prospect and as the best defensive infielder in the system.

I'm less optimistic about him. I see chronic problems in controlling the strike zone. Last year, at New Britain, he walked 24 times and struck out 94 times. He's had that kind of ugly ratio at each level. I have trouble imagining how he's going to keep hitting .280 and higher with that poor ratio.

As for the defense, he commits a lot of errors. While the Twins claim the boots are because of his superior range, it's pretty clear he's muffing routine plays as well.

Maybe he really is a future regular. Even if he is, I doubt this is the year for that. I see Triple A for him.

Option D: Free agent Stephen Drew. The regular for the Red Sox last season, Drew remains on the market in large part because (a) he will cost the signing team a draft pick; (b) his agent is Scott Boras, who is, to be charitable, a patient negotiator insistent on top dollar; and (c) teams may well be wary of Drew's injury history.

Drew is 30. He played 124 games (plus the postseason) last year; he was limited to 86 and 79 games the previous two seasons. The Red Sox, with Xavier Bogearts ready, appear more interested in collecting an extra pick than in retaining Drew.

It would be extremely out of character for the Twins to sign Drew. Terry Ryan is always loathe to surrender a draft pick. (In the Twins' case, signing Drew would cost their second-round pick, not their first rounder, but it would still be a premium pick.)

There is, I'm sure, a combination of price and contract length at which Ryan and Co. would be willing to give up that pick. I don't know that Boras is going to agree to something so team-friendly that Ryan would agree to it, but Drew doesn't seem to have a lot of options right now.

Part of this equation may well be how highly the Twins really regard Santana. If they truly view him as the shortstop of the future, splurging on Drew just gets in the way. If they have the same reservations about Santana that I have, Drew makes a lot more sense.

I'm pretty sure the Twins don't regard Florimon or Escobar as long-term solutions at short.

Former Twins shortstop Jason Bartlett will be in camp as a nonroster invitee, but I can't see him as a serious possibility. Bartlett is 34. He hasn't played well since 2010 at the latest and hasn't played at all since the first month or so of 2012. The Twins don't really have anything invested in him, and they won't get anything out of him.

Eye on 2014: Third base

Trevor Plouffe
hit 14 homers in
2013, a notable
dropoff from
2012's surge.

This is a critical, career-shaping season for Trevor Plouffe, the incumbent third baseman.

The Twins are waiting on Miguel Sano, and the Dominican's arrival will be on his own timetable. Nothing Plouffe does is going to delay Sano. Sano's elbow is probably the biggest question mark, but if it's as sound as the Twins seem to think it to be, Sano will be in Minnesota by midseason if not sooner.

And then what for Plouffe?

He played his way out of the middle infield in 2011. He was supposed to shift to the outfield in 2012, but Danny Valencia had a career crisis of his own and Plouffe stepped in at third base and enjoyed a brief but remarkable power surge that ended with a hand injury. His bat regressed in 2013 even as his shaky defense at the hot corner improved.

Plouffe is, today, a 27-year-old with 1,351 major league plate appearances and a career .240/.300/.411 slashline. His OPS+ is five percent below league average. And with arbitration having kicked in, he's not exactly low-priced either. There's not much there to recommend him.

When Sano is deemed ready, Sano will be the third baseman. Plouffe is not good enough to block the prospect.

Plouffe's track record says he not productive enough a hitter to be a regular corner outfielder. The same is true of first base, which is blocked by Joe Mauer anyway. We do know Plouffe's defense in the middle infield won't work in anything other than an emergency role.

One can imagine him as a corner outfielder, at least after Josh Willingham and/or Jason Kubel are gone (both are signed for 2014 only), but he's got to hit better than he has. One can imagine him in a super-utility role -- filling in at third base, corner outfield and first base while the regular gets a semi-day-off as the DH, and doing some DHing himself. Or maybe a team with a hole of its own at third base would be interested in trading for Plouffe.

The ideal use of Plouffe may well be as a platoon player. His career OPS against lefties is about 180 points higher than against righties. He and Kubel (as a DH/outfielder) would be a pairing out of an Earl Weaver dream. But the Twins, or at least Ron Gardenhire, actively resist such leveraging of strengths vs. weakness, so that's not likely to happen.

Eye on 2014: Second base

Brian Dozier (2) brings one of his 18 home runs home.
He hit more dingers in 2013 than he had in his four
minor league seasons combined (16).

There will be no spring training suspense about second base for the Twins. With the 50-game suspension of Eddie Rosario kicking in at the start of the season, the only way Brian Dozier won't be the regular this year is if he gets crippled.

But Dozier, 27 in May, is a prime yardstick by which to measure this team's progress.

He spent most of 2013 hitting in the upper third of the lineup: leadoff after Aaron Hicks failed so emphatically there in the first month, second when Ron Gardenhire opted to return Joe Mauer to the third slot, third in September when Mauer was sidelined, Justin Morneau traded and Josh Willingham hobbled.

Dozier hit .244/.312/.414 with 18 homers — dead average by OPS+. That's fine for a good defensive second baseman, which Dozier is. But it's not productive enough to justify 620-plus plate appearances.

The Twins were 13th in the 15-team American League in runs scored in 2013, a ranking that cannot be over emphasized. Dozier was part of the problem. Or, more specifically, the fact that Dozier was justifiably in the top third of the lineup was part of the problem.

The Twins won't be a good offensive team until Dozier is hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, not the top third. If he's hitting 1-2-3, it means either that the rest of the lineup is as bad as it was in 2013 (pretty darn bad) or that the manager is constructing a substandard batting order.

My guess is that in April, Dozier will be in the upper third, for reason No. 1. We should hope that as the wave of talent arrives, Dozier slides to a more appropriate lineup slot.

Eye on 2014: First base

Joe Mauer, first baseman.

Joe Mauer is the 500-pound gorilla of the Twins lineup. Between the talent and the contract, he is the centerpiece of the roster.

And now that he's no longer a catcher, the question remains: Where's the best place to put him?

This much as been established: He's the Twins first baseman now. But it's hard to believe that the least-demanding defensive position is the best use of his athleticism.

Mike Bernadino of the Pioneer Press last weekend put out a short video on Tout of Mauer talking about his limited exposure to third base in his childhood. As soon as Bernadino put the question, Mauer gave a little smile-grimace that conveyed: I know where this is going. You think I should be moved to third.

And there is an argument for the notion. Mauer has the arm and the hands for third base. The arm, at least, is wasted at first.

On the other hand, there aren't a lot of 6-foot-5 third basemen. And Mauer is now 30. He might wind up at first in a couple of years anyway.

And, more particularly, the Twins have Miguel Sano rocketing up the ladder at third base. Trevor Plouffe, the incumbent at third, is just a placeholder. The Twins don't have a Sano equivalent at first base in the minors.

They do have some prospects who might be moved to first base, Sano being one and Max Kepler another.

If the Twins were to put Mauer at third, their first base options would be some combination of Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello and Plouffe, presumably with Sano getting a crash course in the position in the minors.

There's no real long-term gain apparent from moving Mauer to third base now.

Then there's this aspect. You know the joke about 500-pound gorillas: Where do they sit? Wherever they want. Mauer was, by all accounts, reluctant to abandon his accustomed catching position. He's more comfortable at first than at third. He's the 500-pound gorilla, and he's going to play first base.

Eye on 2014: Catcher

Josmil Pinto had 26 hits in his
late-season call up, but also struck out
22 times.

When the Twins signed Kurt Suzuki a bit before Christmas, the idea was that he might be the starting catcher, but more likely would be the backup and mentor to rookie Josmil Pinto.

The word out of Twins Fest this past weekend was that Suzuki is likely to be the regular behind the dish.

I infer from this notion that Pinto would be shipped out to Triple A. He's not going to sharpen his defensive chops sitting six days a week, and with Josh Willingham, Oswaldo Arcia and Jason Kubel the presumptive corner outfielders / DH, there doesn't figure to be enough at-bats available to justify Pinto as a DH-catcher.

Suzuki's backup would be either Chris Herrmann or Eric Fryer. Herrmann, a left-handed hitter with the ability to play outfield, is probably the better hitter of the two, Fryer the superior defender.

Last year, with Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit getting the bulk of the catching time, catcher was perhaps the one position at which the Twins got better-than-league offensive production. Mauer's a first baseman now, and Doumit's an Atlanta Brave (and, apparently, not a catcher any more either), and it doesn't matter if it's Suzuki-Herrmann or Suzuki-Fryer -- the Twins catchers will be decisively below average on offense if Pinto's in the minors.

That might be acceptable if the Twins were't giving away so many outs at so many other positions. The Twins were near the bottom of the league in runs scored last year. They will probably need Pinto in the lineup to change that.

Eye on 2014: The bullpen

Michael Tonkin
pitched 11.1 innings
for the Twins in
2013 and struck
out 10 men.

The 2013 Twins had a very stable bullpen, with only two real changes from the bunch they opened with. Tyler Robertson washed out after two appearances— really, he probably only made the initial 25-man roster because Anthony Swarzak missed the first week at the end of his recovery from his cracked rib — and Caleb Thielbar was brought up when they went to an eight-man bullpen.

The core eight — Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Casey Fien, Brian Duensing, Josh Roenicke, Ryan Pressly, Swarzak and Thielbar — all made at least 48 appearances (Swarzak was low man in games pitched but led the majors in relief innings), and only Thielbar (46 innings) threw less than 60 innings.

The Twins have cut Roenicke loose, and if they open 2014 with a seven-man bullpen (as they did last year), it could be the other seven. It could —but I'm thinking not.

The potential change is Pressly. The Rule 5 restrictions he was under last year no longer apply, and he still has all three of his options remaining. Three possible reasons he might get shipped to the minors:

• There's a (flawed) notion that he could be turned into a usable starting pitcher. (The flaw is that he wasn't an effective starter in the Boston system, which is why the Red Sox exposed him to Rule 5 to begin with.)
• Three of the contenders for the fifth starter job — Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley — are out of options. If the Twins want to avoid exposing somebody who doesn't win the job to waivers, that bullpen spot is a way to keep him.
• Michael Tonkin might be better than Pressly anyway.

Swarzak and Duensing were told at season's end to prepare to compete for rotation jobs, which is what they were told at the end of 2012 as well. Neither was seriously considered for a rotation role in 2013, and I don't really expect them to be seriously considered this time around either.

The Twins will have a few bullpen candidates in camp as non-roster invitees — Delois Guerra and Lester Oliveros come readily to mind — but there doesn't figure to be a lot of competition for bullpen jobs.

Of course, that statement assumes everybody's healthy. With pitchers, that's never a safe assumption.

Eye on 2014: The rotation

Kevin Correia was
the best of a bad
rotation in 2013.
He has one year
left on his contract.

Pitchers and catchers report to begin workouts at the Twins spring training camp a week month from today. (Does that make you feel any warmer today? Me neither. It's still cold.)

The Twins caravan rolled through Mankato last night with 2014 bullpenners Brian Duensing and Ryan Pressly in tow. There's been chatter of shifting one or both (Anthony Swarzak as well) to a starting role, but I don't take the idea very seriously. For one thing, all have track records of being better in relief. For another, there isn't a lot of room in the rotation after the signings earlier this offseason.

While the Twins still have roughly $15 million in payroll space for the coming season, and while some of the bigger names in the winter's free-agent field remain unsigned, I figure Terry Ryan and Co. have made their moves. It's possible Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo might settle for what the Twins are offering, but a more likely outcome is that those two will land with teams that don't get the biggest fish in the pitching pool, Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka. And I definitely doubt the Twins would surrender a second-round draft pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez or Edwin Santana to the kind of deals those guys are seeking.

Which means the 2014 rotation shapes up thusly, pitchers ordered by salary commitment:

• Ricky Nolasco
• Phil Hughes
• Kevin Correia
• Mike Pelfrey
• Another 2013 holdover (Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Vince Worley, Andrew Albers, Kyle Gibson)

Nolasco and Hughes represent a significant investment in free agent arms: a pair of four year deals, with Nolasco's being the most expensive signing of a free agent in Twins history (Joe Mauer was a year away from free agency when he signed his big contract) and Hughes the second biggest.

The interesting thing, really, about the signings is that the money is being paid out not on the basis of past accomplishment but on the basis of projection. Nolasco and Hughes have been around long enough to qualify for free agency, but both have considerable "upside" in this sense: Their peripheral stats have always been better than the raw results. Pelfrey's upside comes from being another year removed from his Tommy John surgery.

It's not a playoff-caliber rotation. That comes, if it does, when prospect Alex Meyer and Gibson — or eventually one or more of the younger guns, Kohl Stewart or J.O. Berrios or Lewis Thorpe — emerge as top-of-the-rotation arms and push Nolasco and Hughes down the list (and Correia off completely).

It should be better than 2013's rotation, but that's an excessively low hurdle to clear.

Into the Winter Meetings

The Winter Meetings begin Monday, and Terry Ryan, the Twins general manager, has probably already made his biggest moves of the offseason:

• Retained Ron Gardenhire as manager
• Moved Joe Mauer to first base
• Signed Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes for the starting rotation

Ryan has typically been the master of winter patience, waiting until he has the last open seat in the game of player musical chairs. This time he's stuck rather quickly.

He still has something in the neighborhood of $15 million in 2014 budget space and a team with holes. What might we look for from the Twins at the Winter Meetings and beyond?

A roster opening move. The Twins have the fifth pick in the Rule 5 draft, but at this point no way to use it, as the 40-man roster is full. The Twins take Rule 5 seriously. They almost always select somebody in Rule 5, and are more likely than probably any organization in baseball to find a way to keep that selection, so it's hard to imagine Ryan and Co. sitting it out this year. But first they have to clear a spot on the 40.

Catcher. Ryan indicated this week, after A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia found new employers, that the Twins were willing to move ahead with Josmil Pinto as Plan A behind the dish for 2014. I suspect it's a case of willing but not eager. The options are thinning out, however.

Starting pitcher.  The Twins have added two starters; they're open to adding a third, but they don't have the urgency now that they did before landing Nolasco and Hughes. They remain linked to Bronson Arroyo and Mike Pelfrey; my particular case of Sid Hartman Disease — the irrational wish to bring back former stars — is focused at this point on Johan Santana, whose shoulder rehab has reportedly progressed to playing catch at 90 feet on flat ground. If they do sign a pitcher, I doubt it will happen before the Rule 5 draft, which is pretty much the final act of the Winter Meetings.

Trades? Unlikely. Ryan's said that he's more focused on free agency than on trades as a means to boost the 2014 team, because free agents don't cost players. (And, unsaid but implied, he's got more money to spend than trade chips to cash in.) The one real area of surplus he might have dealt from, second base, got dented with the news of Eddie Rosario's positive PED test.

But ... it's certainly possible that the Twins will create that roster space cited above by peddling somebody (most likely a bullpen arm) for a prospect who doesn't need rostering.

Eye on 2014: What about Ryan Pressly?

Ryan Pressly made
it through his Rule 5
season, so the Twins
are free to send him
to the minors next year.

The Twins got Ryan Pressly in the Rule 5 draft, which meant he had to be carried on the active roster all season or offered back to the Boston Red Sox. That wasn't much of a problem; he had a very strong first half and, even with his second half fade, it was pretty obvious that he was worth keeping.

He ended 2013 with a 3-3, 3.87 record in 76.2 innings, all in relief. He ranked fourth in the American League in relief innings (teammate Anthony Swarzak was first). 

Even as Pressly's ERA ballooned in the second half (3.09 before the All-Star break, 4.91 after), it seemed that every time he entered a game Bert Blyleven talked on TV about shifting him to a starter's role in future seasons.

The Twins have an obvious need for starting pitchers, but it is less than obvious that Pressly is a good candidate for the role

Three points:

• Boston exposed him to the Rule 5 draft for a reason. Pressly struggled at every level in the Red Sox system until they moved him to a relief role. It was the shift to the bullpen that made him worth taking in Rule 5.
• Pressly's season deteriorated as his innings mounted. That doesn't suggest that a starter's heavier workload is a good fit.
• Even with the bullpen boost -- pitchers throw with greater velocity when working in relief's shorter stints -- Pressly still had a below average strikeout rate. He fanned 5.8 men per nine innings, almost two less than the AL average. 

Blyleven's fixation on the idea of Pressly as a starter probably wasn't his; he was doubtless getting this notion fed to him by the Twins. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins chose to send him to Triple A with the intent of making him a starter.

I would be surprised if it worked. The available evidence says Pressly belongs in the bullpen. 

Eye on 2014: Naming names

Johan Santana returned from a major shoulder surgery
to throw a no-hitter in 2012, but missed all of 2013
after a second try at repairing his shoulder.

On Friday I described a "rough draft" for a 2014 Twins starting rotation that featured two vacancies for pitchers to be acquired.

On Saturday I discussed the Twins' lack of pitchers strikeouts and explained the problems of relying on free agency to fix that.

Today I'm going to put forth my thoughts on which free agent starters the Twins should pursue.

I do so mindful that the three free agent starters I wanted the Twins to chase last year didn't fare well. I wanted Terry Ryan and Co. to go after Brandon McCarthy, John Lannan and Shaun Marcum. Those three combined to go 9-27, and through injury and ineffectiveness, none made it through the season in the rotation. So my track record is less than perfect.

I'm ruling out most of the best free agents because there's no good reason for them to come to Minnesota. Tim Hudson, for example; he's in his upper 30s and is going to look for a team ready to win NOW. Ditto A.J. Burnett, if he doesn't retire. Hideki Kuroda is either going to stick with the Yankees or return to his native Japan. Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana are notoriously inconsistent and would cost a draft pick. Matt Garza? He and the Twins have a history.

My 2014 wish list is divided into two parts:

High ceiling, high risk: Injury cases, by and large, who are not good bets to provide 30 starts and 200 innings but who, if they can take the mound, should be effective.

Inning eaters: They won't help the team's strikeout rate much, but they have better health records.

My idea is to target one from each group.

From the first group: Johan Santana, Josh Johnson, Colby Lewis, Scott Kazmir, Scott Baker

I''m actually at lot more interested in the first two than the second three.

Emotionally, I'd love to see Santana back; I don't know that he's sound enough to help.

(There were reports last week that the Twins had requested Santana's medicals, which would indicate an interest in bringing him back. If they do pursue their former ace, one thing they have in their favor is that Santana knows that Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson will protect him; there won't be any of the foolish public challenges that helped wreck his season with the Mets before it got started.)

Mike Pelfrey has
said he wants to
return to the Twins.

I have no illusions on Santana or Johnson. Even if they're ready to pitch Opening Day, they can't be expected to make it through the entire season. As with Mike Pelfrey last year, 150 innings would be an accomplishment. Sign either, and you're going to use one of your Plan B guys at some point, early or late or both.

From the second group: Scott Feldman, Phil Hughes, Pelfrey, Ricky Nolasco, Paul Maholm .

What I'd basically be looking for here is what Kevin Correia gave the Twins this year: Thirty or more starts, something approaching 200 innings. Pelfrey was short of that for the Twins, but 2014 will be another full year removed from his elbow reconstruction.

So my wish list: Maybe one of Santana and Johnson, one or two of Feldman, Hughes and Pelfrey.

Eye on 2014: Searching for strikeouts

Two key stats were at the root of the 2013 Minnesota Twins' "pitching" problem — pitching in quotation marks because one of the stats isn't about the guys on the mound so much as the men in the field.

• The Twins were far in arrears of all other teams at striking opponents out;
• The Twins were worst in the league at turning balls in play into outs.

It's a deadly combination, obviously; the pitching emphasis on letting the defense do the work is undermined when the defense doesn't make the plays.

The defensive issues get less attention than the "pitch to contact" approach, and it will in this post also. As the Twins search for upgrades to their staff, and specifically the starting rotation, the emphasis should be on strikeouts. They need to find some arms who can miss bats.

The average AL pitcher — the average — struck out 7.7 hitters per nine innings. This is the all-time high.

The average Twins pitcher struck out 6.1 men per nine. The Twins pitchers suppressed the league K rate by a point; take the Twins out, and the league rate is 7.8 K/9.

This is largely a starting pitcher problem. The Twins starters fanned 4.9 men per nine innings, the bullpen 7.9 — and having said that, the Twins relievers trailed the rest of the league's relievers as well. American League relief pitchers overall had an 8.5 K/9 rate. But the starters were at 7.2.

The prescription, then: Pursue strikeout rates.

Easier said, frankly, than done. This is Fangraphs' listing of free agent starting pitchers, sorted by K/9 rates 2011-13. There are 14 names on the list with K/9 rates about the 7.7 average rate. One of them, Tim Lincecum, is already off the market. Several others (Johan Santana, Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay among them) have significant health issues.

Earlier this week I suggested that Ubaldo Jimenez might encounter the same resistance as Kyle Lohse did last year in free agency. This list suggests otherwise. He's probably the safest bet among the free agent starters with high strikeout rates.

The pursuit of strikeouts, at least as it involves free agency, is going to require taking some significant risks. Almost all of the available high-K arms have issues. Which, I believe, is why Terry Ryan keeps repeating that there are no shortcuts. 

Eye on 2014: Outlining the starting rotation

It's time for the Twins to commit a rotation job to Kyle Gibson.

This is already the running theme of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins: Fix the starting rotation.

Oh, the Twins had plenty of other issues. They were near the bottom of the league in runs scored, so the hitters weren't real productive. They were last in the American League in defensive efficiency — the percentage of balls in play they turned into outs — so the glovework wasn't helping.

There's good reason to focus on the rotation. The wave of top-prospect talent that's coming figures to fix those offensive and defensive woes (at least as long as the aching joints of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton aren't so serious as to short-circuit their promise). Those problems will largely fix themselves without importing outside talent.

It's harder to make that case about the rotation, partly because the Twins are light on quality arms in the upper levels of the farm system and partly because the attrition rate for pitchers is so high.

Let's do a rough draft of the 2014 rotation:

Kevin Correia will be part of it. Not that he's, you know, good.  He wouldn't crack the five-man rotation of any of the four teams that got past the wild-card round of the playoffs. But he's under contract, and the Twins won't have five better options. He's the best starter they have, which is another way of stating the problem.

Kyle Gibson. He's 26 already — 26 and still unestablished. It's time for the 2009 first-round pick to sink or swim.

Another 2013 holdover. One arm from the bunch of (alphabetically) Andrew Albers, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks and Vince Worley. I figure that, out of those five, one is capable of providing a decent season. There's a case to be made for each; there's drawbacks to each. I have no problem with devoting a rotation spot to one. I don't want to rely on those five to fill two spots. It's OK to expect something from 20 percent of that field; 40 percent is pushing it.

Left out of this are the two power arms who spent 2013 in Double A New Britain and are currently working in the Arizona Fall League, Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Meyer had arm issues in midseason, May hasn't mastered his control. I don't expect them to jump up to the American League to start the season. Midseason at best with these two.

That leaves two rotation spots to fill from the outside, whether via free agency or trade. We'll get into that in future posts.

Joe Mauer and the Twins offseason

Joe Mauer and bullpen coach Bobby Cuellar talk
during spring training.

With the World Series over, baseball's offseason is officially on.

The Twins have held their organizational meetings. Presumably Terry Ryan and Co. know which minor leaguers they will elevate to the 40-man roster, know which free agents they'll pursue (contract offers cannot be made until Tuesday).

And, presumably, they know what they want to do with Joe Mauer.

By which I mean not should we trade him?  Mauer is not getting traded, and anybody who thinks a Mauer trade is a realistic option pays too much attention to the NFL and its phony contracts. No, the question is: Is Mauer our primary catcher, or is it time to find him a new position?

My opinion — and I say this while acknowledging that the Twins know more than I do about Mauer's health — has shifted sharply since Mauer's late August concussion. I now believe it's time to move him.

So far as we can glean from the public comments from Ryan and Ron Gardenhire, the status quo remains intact. Mauer's a catcher until somebody with some say in the matter — Mauer, Ryan, Gardenhire — says otherwise, and nobody has said otherwise.

The public focus, and maybe the true focus, of the Twins winter figures to be reshaping the starting rotation. But the lineup had big issues also, and how those issues will be addressed depends in no small part on what position Mauer plays.

If he's a catcher, the Twins need a first baseman; I don't envision them being excited about Chris Parmelee or Chris Colabello as Plan A there. If he's a first baseman, are the Twins comfortable with bat-first backstops Ryan Doumit and Josmil Pinto, or are they in the market for a better defender?