On Duensing and the Cubs bullpen

Joe Maddon, the manager of the defending champs, is taking some criticism in the wake of Sunday's game, which was decided without the participation of Wade Davis, the Cubs' best reliever and closer (the two concepts are not identical). #OldFriend Brian Duensing opened the bottom of the ninth for the Cubbies, and John Lackey ended it with a gopher ball. Duensing took the loss.

Maddon, postgame, on Davis:

“He had limited pitches. It was one inning only, and in these circumstances you don’t get him up and then don’t get him in. So if we had caught the lead, he would have pitched. That’s it.”

I buy that. Davis threw 45 pitches in that bizarre Game 5 to beat the Nationals. He hasn't worked that deep in years, probably since the Royals gave up trying to make him a starter. I'm sure Maddon's preference was not to use him at all.

I think Davis is not totally healthy; I didn’t like the way he looked last game. That might be the reason why Maddon didn’t use him tonight

— Pedro Martinez (@45PedroMartinez) October 16, 2017

Maddon appears to be managing the Cubs as if they don't have a lockdown bullpen right now, even though a number of relievers had strong seasons.

Duensing was one of those. Not just a 2.74 ERA. but 61 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. He coughed up only one lead for the Cubs. He didn't have a big platoon split; in fact, he held righties to a lower slugging percentage. A nice season for the former Twin.

The Cubs pitching staff is based on its solid rotation (Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Kendricks, Jose Quintana). But Maddon, by choice or circumstances, is getting just five innings or so a game out of these guys. Which means the bullpen has to pick up the rest, and he rode Davis really hard against the Nationals. He went through three of his middle bullpen guys Sunday (Carl Edwards Jr., Pedro Strop and Duensing) before turning to fifth-starter Lackey.

The decisions Maddon made in previous games led to the decsions he made Sunday. He couldn't go deep with Lester because he was on short rest after pitching 3.2 innings in relief Thursday. Davis's availability was limited. He hasn't gotten a quality start since Game Two against the Nationals, and the bullpen coughed that one away.

Maybe today's offday will straighten things out. Seven or eight innings from Tuesday's starter would help more.

Notes, quotes and comment

Nick Burdi caught
eyes with his
velocity this spring.

Nick Burdi, much-anticipated relief prospect for the Twins who made it deeper into major league camp than anticipated, will open the year on the disabled list with tightness in his forearm.

This may or may not be the precursor to a more significant injury. But I can't help but remember that early in camp he was reported to be working on a split-finger fastball, and I was dubious of that idea in part because of the injury risk.

I don't know if he continued to pursue the pitch; if I recall correctly, Terry Ryan said at the time that it was up to Burdi. Even if he was still working on it, connecting the pitch to this forearm issue is at best imprecise. Pitchers get hurt.

---

While watching the Twins beat the Red Sox in Thursday's Fort Myers finale, I tweeted this:

Understand why Twins kept Arcia, but I prefer Mastroianni more as a bench piece. Does more things will than Arcia.

— Edward Thoma (@bboutsider) March 31, 2016

Other than misspelling "well" as "will", I stand by that thought. Oswaldo Arcia has the advantage in power. Darin Mastroianni does everything else better. I don't know where Arcia's going to get his at-bats, and if he's not getting at-bats, he's no help.

Last year Shane Robinson, who is kinda sorta the same player as Mastroianni, played in 83 games with almost 200 plate appearances for the Twins. Now, that was a team with a 40-year-old right fielder who needed plenty of days off, and this year's roster doesn't have that kind of issue. But it does have an outfielder who has minimal experience in the outer garden (Miguel Sano), and another who was once hit in the head by a fly ball in a major league game (Arcia).

Robinson, incidentally, was released by Cleveland this week, where he was a non-roster invitee, and on Thursday signed with the Angels.

---

In other ex-Twin NRI news:

• Brian Duensing, non-roster invitee with the Kansas City Royals, was released this week.
• Anthony Swarzak, non-roster invitee with the New York Yankees, was reassigned to minor league camp.
• Blaine Boyer, non-roster invitee with the Milwaukee Brewers, made the major league roster.

On Punto and Duensing

Nick Punto made it official Thursday: He're retired.

It was a nice career. He squeezed 14 big league seasons out of his ability. His lack of power made him consistently a below-league average hitter, and his fielding chops kept him on rosters and in lineups.

It was an odd thing: Every time the Twins went into a season planning on Punto holding a specific infield slot, that plan turned sour. When they turned to him in midseason to fill a slot after somebody else failed, he thrived. 2006, when he took over third base after Tony Batista flopped. 2008, when he took over shortstop from Adam Everett. 2009, when he supplanted Alexi Casilla at second base and put up a .406 on-base percentage in September.

Punto was a better Plan B than a Plan A.

---

I commented the other day about Brian Duensing's inability to find a team. On Thursday the Kansas City Royals announced that they had signed him to a minor league contract.

The defending World Series champs have, as we all know, a pretty deep bullpen of power arms. But those power arms are right-handed. Duensing has a decent chance to land a roster spot there. And if he does, he'll be mates again with his fellow Nebraska alum and pal Alex Gordon.

Duensing doubtless was holding out for a major-league roster spot. He didn't get it. But he landed, in short, in as good a spot as he could have asked for this close to training camp.

The unemployed Brian Duensing

The Twins didn't do as aggressive a bullpen overhaul this winter as I might have preferred, but they did cut ties with a pair of veteran relievers who combined for 123 appearances last season in Blaine Boyer and Brian Duensing.

Boyer wound up signing a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers, this after putting up a 2.49 ERA for the Twins. Duensing hasn't even gotten a minor league deal anywhere, and camps are about to open.

Duensing, about to turn 33, is left-handed and breathing, so if the cliche were true, somebody would have signed him by now. He's not the only veteran lefty looking for a job -- Neal Cotts, his colleague in the Minnesota bullpen late last season, is also jobless, as are some others -- but Duensing is of particular interest to me because he has been a fixture on the Twins roster for seven seasons.

Why so little interest in Duensing? Perhaps because his strikeout rate has been in steady decline. In 2013 -- his first season as a full-time reliever -- he struck out 8.3 men per nine innings. In 2014, his K rate was down to 5.5; last season, a paltry 4.4. For that matter, Boyer's strikeout rate was just 4.6.

Eleven pitchers relieved in more than 20 games for the Twins last year. Nine of them are back (one, Aaron Thompson, on a minor league contract). The two who are gone are the two with the lowest strikeout rates. I doubt that's a coincidence.

Winter meetings, midway through

The Twins have been on the sidelines through the first two days of the Winter Meetings -- no trades, just talk and some indications.

Indication One: Reluctant as I am to accept this, the Twins are certainly behaving as if they are serious about this Miguel Sano-to-the-outfield concept. Reports out of Nashville indicate that the Twins will listen to trade offers for Trevor Plouffe but aren't showing any urgency about moving the veteran third baseman.

Another factor in this: Oakland is apparently eager to trade Brett Lawrie, a very comparable third baseman. If the Twins were pushing for a Plouffe trade, the immediate effect would be a buyer's market. Taking their time on moving Plouffe, assuming they want to, might well be the best tactic.

Indication Two: Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, two free agent relievers who between them made 123 appearances for the Twins last year, won't be back. The Twins are, however, interested in bringing back Neal Cotts. As lefty relievers go, I'd probably prefer Duensing to Cotts, but Duensing figures to be the more expensive of the two.

Indication Three: Minnesota's top focus so far is said to be relief pitching, particularly left-handed, but there is also chatter that the Twins are shopping Ricky Nolasco. It's a good guess that moving Nolasco will either require the Twins to take on somebody else's bad contract or hand over a chunk of money to cover Nolasco's remaining years. Or both, Dumping Nolasco looks like addition by subtraction at this point, however. The Twins need to clear some rotation space.

Indication Four: Unless something happens today, the Twins will sit out the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. They have a full 40-man roster. They have seldom skipped Rule 5, but this year may be the exception.

Hello, Cotts

The Twins announced after Friday's win that they had acquired left-handed reliever Neal Cotts from Milwaukee for the always popular player to be named or cash. My guess is that it will be cash.

Cotts is a 35-year-old LOOGY who's bounced around the majors on and off since 2003 and a key component in the bullpen of the 2005 World Series champion White Sox. He had a three year gap, 2010-12, in his major league service; he's had better walk and strikeout rates since his return. Lefties this year are hitting .185 (OPS .576) against him; righties are hitting .284 (OPS .847). Like I said, LOOGY -- Left-handed One-Out GuY.

Cotts is a free agent after this season, so there's no commitment beyond this year.

The Twins had an open slot on their 40-man roster, they returned A.J Achter to Rochester to make room on the active roster. That surprised me a little, not that Achter had a significant role, but my initial expectation was that it would be Ryan O'Roarke who got dropped. He and Cotts are essentially limited to the same role. You don't want to have either face a right-handed hitter that matters. Two of them is at least one too many. That second LOOGY seldom gets the ball in important situations, and O'Roarke has pitched with only one lead since coming up about six weeks ago.

So .. does Cotts supplant Brian Duensing as the primary lefty specialist? Probably. Duensing has actually had reverse splits this season (lefties are hitting about a hundred points higher). That certainly doesn't fit his career profile and doesn't involve enough at-bats to be predictive of future results, but managers have made these decisions on less evidence before.

Reshuffling the pitching staff

One move before Friday's game, two moves after. Going though the revamping of the Twins pitching staff:

• Tim Stauffer to the disabled list with an inflamed ERA pulled intracostal muscle, Ryan Pressly recalled. 
• Caleb Thielbar optioned to Triple A Rochester, Brian Duensing activated from the disabled list.
• Tommy Milone optioned to Triple A Rochester, Ricky Nolasco activated from the disabled list.

Taking them one at a time:

I was never a fan of the Stauffer signing, and I would rather see Pressly on the staff even if Stauffer weren't hurting. I had figured Stauffer was about two weeks from being released. This disabled-list stint will probably restart the clock on that.

Thielbar for Duensing was pretty obvious. With Casey Fien sidelined, it's likely Duensing is going to be called on heavily to set up Glen Perkins. His track record against right-handed hitters over time suggests that's not a good fit.

The surprise was Milone going down. The Twins had indicated that the lefty would go to the bullpen; instead, he's going to Rochester. I'm torn on this one. On one hand, Milone has not exhibited good command in the past three starts (nine walks and six strikeouts in 14.1 innings). On the other hand, Milone has a better major league record in many respects than does Nolasco, and even more so than Mike Pelfrey. Milone loses out not because they're better pitchers, but because he's easy to set aside.

I hope and expect that this will be temporary. Aside from the possibility/probability that somebody in the rotation will get hurt, it's possible that the Twins will at some point trade one of their starters.

The arbitration tender deadline

Almost lost in the Torii Hunter news Tuesday evening was the deadline for tendering contracts to the arbitration eligible.

As should have been expected after the Twins outrighted Anthony Swarzak -- one of seven arbitration-eligible players on the roster at season's end -- they tendered all six of the remainders: Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Tommy Milone, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe and Jordan Schafer.

One can question the decision to tender Nunez, a utility man who doesn't play any position particularly well and has a career OPS (in 956 a-bats) of just .684. If the Twins are serious about going with Danny Santana at short rather than in the outfield, that relegates Eduardo Escobar to a utility role, and there is nothing Nunez does better than Escobar.

But Nunez is at the least an insurance policy. There are teams looking for a shortstop; maybe the Twins will try to flip Escobar for a pitcher or center fielder. Or maybe they aren't all that sure about Santana as a shortstop and wary of counting on Aaron Hicks and Schafer for center field. If they keep Santana in the outfield, Escobar stays at short and Nunez can be the utility infielder.

As for the other five, I don't see any real question about retaining them. Milone didn't pitch well in his few starts for the Twins before going on the disabled list, but he has a good track record. I'll guarantee this: A team willing to pay the likes of Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey $5 million really can't find $2.8 million for Milone to be excessive.

The Knoblauch legacy

We can trace Brian
Duensing's presence on
the Twins roster to
Chuck Knoblauch.

A few years ago I wrote a print column on the "Knoblauch tree," in which I traced the impact on the Twins of their 1989 decision to draft Chuck Knoblauch in the first round.

As detailed in this Grantland piece by Ben Lindbergh, the Twins are still benefiting from that move.

Knoblauch's personal travails notwithstanding, he had an excellent seven-year run in Minnesota: Starting second baseman on the 1991 World Series team, Rookie of the Year that year, four All-Star teams, a cumulative slash line of .304/..391/.416.

The Twins traded him to the Yankees and got back Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton, Brian Buchanan and Danny Mota (and cash). Mota washed out. The others:

• Guzman was the Twins regular shortstop for six years, during which time they won three division titles. Guzy led the league in triples three times, made an All-Star team, slashed .226/.303/.383. 
• Milton spent six years -- or five really, considering an injury that wiped out most of his final season in Minnesota -- in the Twins rotation, racking up a 57-51 record with a 4.76 ERA and one All-Star season.
• Buchanan wasn't so much of a much. The Twins gave the big outfielder 455 plate appearances over three seasons, in which he hit .258 with 16 homers. But he still matters in this saga.

Guzman left as a free agent; under the prevailing rules, the Twins got a third-round draft pick from the Nationals. (Lindbergh's flow chart says it was the Mariners, but that's an error.) That pick turned into Brian Duensing, still a member of the pitching staff. Duensing to date is 37-36 with a 4.12 ERA with the Twins, splitting his time between the rotation (61 starts) and the bullpen (238 relief outings).

Milton was traded to Philadelphia for Nick Punto, Carlos Silva and Bobby Korecky.

• Korecky's still hanging around at age 35; the Blue Jays gave him 3.1 innings last season. He made just 16 appearances with the Twins before they cut him loose. 
• Punto's also still going; he was with Oakland last year as a reserve infielder. In seven years with the Twins he slashed .248/.323/.324 and drove a vocal contingent of the fan base nuts by repeatedly winding up the regular at one of the infield spots. Third base, second base, shortstop. He left as a free agent and hasn't missed the postseason since.
• Silva spent four years in the Twins rotation, compiling a 47-45, 442 mark and averaging more than 190 innings a year.

That's where these guys' contributions end. Korecky was released, and Punto and Silva's departures as free agents did not bring back any compensation picks.

Buchanan was traded to San Diego for a Class A infielder: Jason Bartlett. Bartlett was with the Twins for three partial seasons and one full one, slashing .272/.341/.362 in those four seasons. His belated emergence as the full-time shortstop was a key to the division title run in 2006, in my opinion the best of the Ron Gardenhire teams.

Bartlett was traded to Tampa Bay. Unlike the previous trades listed here, this wasn't a clean, one-player for this package. The Twins included Matt Garza and Eduardo Moran in the trade and got back Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.

• Pridie was the outfield equivalent of Korecky; A short, ineffectual stint with the Twins (11 games, six plate appearances), then cut loose. (Like Korecky, he's still playing; he got four at-bats with Colorado in 2014).
• Harris spent three years with the Twins, playing some shortstop and some third base. He hit .252/.309/.360 with more than 1,000 plate appearances.
• Young had one big season in 2010 and three mediocre ones for the Twins, with a combined slash line of .287/.324/.429. 

Harris was included in the notorious J.J. Hardy trade: Hardy and Harris to Baltimore for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. The Twins released Jacobson after the 212 season, he stalled out in Double A for the Twins. Hoey had one lousy season with the Twins and was claimed on waivers by Toronto. So this branch of the Knoblauch tree ends there.

Lester Oliveros might
be the best bet to
keep the tree growing.

Young was traded to Detroit for Lester Oliveros and Cole Nelson. Nelson has been released; the Minnesota native pitched for the independent St. Paul Saints last summer. Oliveros, still only 26, has spent the past two years recovering from Tommy John surgery and is regarded as a serious candidate for the Twins bullpen in 2015.

So that's the Knoblauch tree so far. By Lindbergh's computation, it's the seventh-longest current tree in the majors. The longest is an incredible one: The Mets used a 1967 -- that's right, 1967 -- draft pick on Jon Matlack, and almost a half century later have David Wright to show for it. 

Contemplating Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing has allowed four home runs in 59.2
innings this season, three of them to left-handed hitters.

Brian Duensing has spent the entire 2013 season in the bullpen. This has been the first season in which the lefty hasn't split time between relieving and starting.

The shift to full-time relief work hasn't been a resounding success — 4.07 ERA after Wednesday's two-out appearance, and for a while he was surplanted as the primary left-handed set-up guy by rookie Caleb Thielbar — but a 4.07 ERA is a darn sight better than the ERAs he put up in 2011 and 2012. His strikeout rate is up sharply (his walk rate is also higher) this year, and his home run rate is lower.

And the Twins are making noises about him as a rotation candidate for 2014. Ugh.

The Twins obviously have rotation problems, and one can hardly blame Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan for looking under rocks for answers, but Duensing has enough of a track record at this point (545 major league innings and 61 starts) that it's fair to wonder why they'd pick that one to check.

It's worth noting that last year at this time, Ryan was talking about having both Duensing and Anthony Swarzak prepare during the offseason for potential starting jobs. Neither man ever started a game this year, and neither was given even a cursory look as a starter during spring training (Swarzak, of course, was hurt for most of camp). So the Duensing-as-a-starter talk may be just a bit of end-of-the-season wind.

My view on Duensing as a starter hasn't changed from last year: He needs to demonstrate that he has a way to attack right-handed hitters to succeed in that role.

Duensing's platoon stats this year are odd. He has habitually feasted on left-handed hitters and been abused by right-handed hitters — which is why a bullpen shift made a lot of sense for him — but this year lefties have hit him at a .294/.331/.437 clip, righties .271/.359/.377 (per Baseball Reference, which hadn't been updated with Wednesday's outing).

I take this to be a small sample size blip and not indicative of a true change in ability. Even if it isn't a fluke, the overall numbers don't exactly call out to give this man a larger role.

Shuffling the pitchers

P.J. Walters collects himself before throwing his first
pitch Wednesday against the New York Yankees.

The Twins have swapped out a starting pitcher and rebranded some bullpen roles. Let's look:

P.J. Walters designated for assignment: Mike Pelfrey is coming off the disabled list to make Saturday's start. The Twitter buzz from the beat writers this week suggested that both Walters and Scott Diamond were pitching for their jobs in the Yankees series.

Diamond went 6.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned); he also had, according to Baseball reference, more groundballs than fly balls for the first time in four starts. Diamond lives on the grounders, and his GB rate this year is closer to average that top-of-the-charts, as it was last year.

For his part, Walters went five innings, allowing three runs, all earned. And it was Walters who lost his job.

Which, if it was indeed down to Diamond vs. Walters, the right choice. Neither man is gifted with overwhelming stuff, but Diamond has more markers in his favor (not the least of which is being left-handed).

Walters is out of options, and Diamond is not, but the call apparently wasn't close enough for that tow sway the decision. So now Walters enters the 10-day limbo of DFA and waits to see what happens.

Duensing, Burton slide down the bullpen hierarchy: The Twins eight-man bullpen has had two castes this season: The four late-and-close guys (closer Glen Perkins, set-up man Jared Burton, and middle men Casey Fien and Brian Duensing, who are generally used for fractional innings to get out of jams in the sixth and seventh), and the four longer men (Josh Roenicke, Anthony Swarzak and rookies Ryan Pressly and Caleb Thielbar).

Burton had a rough June (ERA 7.45 for the month) and he opened the new month by giving up three runs in one-third of an inning in Game 1 of the Yankees series.  So now Fien is supposedly going to be the eighth-inning guy while Burton works in lower-leverage situations.

It's less clear who gets the ball in Fien's customary role, which isn't exactly low-leverage. The Twins like a power arm in that job, and I would think that points to Pressly. But (a) they might prefer to give the veteran Roenicke the first shot and (b) Pressly hasn't been all that effective of late either.

Ideally Burton straightens things out quickly and reclaims the eighth-inning role. Fien may be just as good in that role as Burton, but the options for Fien's accustomed role are thin.

Caleb Thielbar has
walked seven and
allowed five hits
in his 18-plus innings.

Similarly, Thielbar has supplanted Duensing in the left-handed set-up role. Duensing, who has been death on left-handed hitters for most of his career, has not been nearly as effective this year (.292 batting average allowed to lefties).

Thielbar hasn't been charged with an earned run yet in the majors (18.2 innings), although he has allowed some inherited runners to score. Nor, through 16 games, has he ever been brought in with a lead.

So far, Ron Gardenhire has used Thielbar much as he used Craig Breslow in 2008. Dennys Reyes was Gardy's primary LOOGY (Left-handed One-Out GuY), and the manager wouldn't use Breslow in game situations. Pigeonholing Breslow into low-leverage situations only was one reason the Twins didn't win the divisional title that year.

The Twins aren't winning the division this year no matter how Thielbar is used. But maybe a lesson has been learned.

Three left-handers: Diamond, Duensing, Liriano

Scott Diamond: Will
he be the starter
or Opening Day?

LaVelle Neal tweeted Friday afternoon that Scott Diamond, who had elbow surgery in December to remove a bone chip, "has begun his throwing program but it's really iffy if he will be ready for Opening Day."

Obviously it would be ideal for him to make all 32 or 33 starts, but in the grand scheme of things it's more important for Diamond to be healthy when he takes the mound. If he isn't ready to pitch the opener on April 1, so be it.

Given Ron Gardenhire's preference for a veteran for the opener, I rather expect him to give the ball to Kevin Correia anyway. True, he's not close to being the best starter in the likely Twins rotation, but he is a veteran. And besides, whoever gets the ball on April 1 figures to be matched against Justin Verlander anyway. The Twins aren't particularly likely to win that one.

---

At the end of the 2012 season, Terry Ryan said (more than once) that Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak had been told to prepare this winter to compete for rotation jobs.

Since then, of course, the Twins have signed veterans Correia, Mike Pelfrey and Rich Harden and traded for Vance Worley. And, as noted earlier this week, Swarzak has broken a couple of ribs and won't be ready to throw when camp opens next week.

I never really took Swarzak's candidacy very seriously. Duensing is another matter.

Duensing is a theoretically viable candidate because he's had some success in the past (2009-10) as a starter, and because he's left-handed.

He's been much better as a reliever the past two years, largely because he's struggled to get right-handed hitters out. My theory last winter, which is still my notion, is that he needs a better change-up.

If that's the case, it should be pretty easy for the Twins to decide this spring if he's a realistic option for the rotation or if he should be in the bullpen. If he's got a good change going, he can start. If he doesn't, he'll be of greater use as a lefty-killer out of the 'pen.

---

Friday morning's post contained a reference to Francisco Liriano's on-again, off-again deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Friday afternoon it was reported, again, that the Liriano deal has been finalized.

Since this time the Pirates themselves have said it, I guess it can be believed.

Brian Duensing as a bullpen cornerstone

The Twins have a lot of openings in their starting rotation.

Not so with their bullpen.

Even without Matt Capps (who'll be a free agent with the Twins declining his option), Carlos Gutierrez (claimed on waivers by the Cubs) and Kyle Waldrop and Luis Perdomo (outrighted), the Twins can still fully stock their relief corps effectively with the pitchers on hand.

Brian Duensing had
a good season as a
relief pitcher, a poor
one as a starter.

Assuming, that is, that Brian Duensing is a reliever rather than a starter.

Closeer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jarrod Burton
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Duensing
MR 1: Casey Fein
LOOGY 2: Tyler Robertson
MR 2: Alex Burnett
Long man: Anthony Swarzak

Nothing wrong at all with the top four, or with the long man. The weak spots are Burnett, whose good 2012 ERA (3.53) is out of whack with his lousy walk and strikeout rates; and Robertson, who hung a few too many sliders to good left-handed power hitters and got burned. As the fifth and sixth men in a bullpen, they're acceptable, but not in more prominent roles.

But Duensing is supposed to be a contender for the starting rotation, and if he's not in the 'pen, the Twins lack a good southpaw specialist. Robertson has the stuff for that job, but not the consistency. I would be reluctant to make him the primary lefty in the bullpen.

The rotation is, correctly, the primary concern. But if the Twins seriously consider Duensing part of the solution -- and I'm not sure he is -- they would do well to have an alternative to him in the bullpen. It's something to keep an eye on this offseason.

Eye on 2013: Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing
wants to be a starter,
but has been more
effective as a reliever.

It would behoove the Twins to decide early this offseason: Is Brian Duensing a starter or a reliever?

The lefty has been markedly better this season working out of the bullpen than in the rotation. His ERA as a reliever (51.2 innings) is 2.61; as a starter (52 innings), 6.92.

Such drastic difference, it would seem, makes this an easy call. But the Twins' shortage of usable starters is so glaring, and Duensing's record as a rotation fill-in in 2009 and 2010 so bright, that Ron Gardenhire and Co. continue to look in his direction.

Part of the fascination with the idea is that Duesning's stuff is certainly no worse than that of Scott Diamond's, and probably superior. If Diamond can be an effective starter, why can't Duensing?

Well ... because at this point, Duensing can't get right-handed hitters out. Righties are hitting .312/.352/.464 this year off Duensing, lefties just .237/.280/.362. It's easier to match him up against left-handed hitters as a relief pitcher.

This is the same issue that ran Duensing aground as a starter in 2011, although the differences were even deeper that year. The problem has not been solved. And I'm skeptical that it can be.

If the Twins keep Duensing in the bullpen, the relief corps becomes considerably deeper immediately. With Glen Perkins as the closer, Duesning gives them a superior lefty set-up man. If Duensing's in the rotation, Tyler Robertson is a step down as a lefty specialist.

But a decent starting pitcher is more valuable than a good relief pitcher. And the Twins projected rotation right now has Diamond -- who, much as I like him, isn't likely to contend for a Cy Young -- and a bunch of vacancies.

I think this: When the Twins hold their organizational meetings after the season, and Gardenhire and ptiching coach Rick Anderson talk up Duensing as a starter, Terry Ryan ought to ask: How is he going to get righties out?

If they don't have a specific, workable answer, Duesning should go in the bullpen plan. And if they do have a specific, workable answer, the next question is: Why didn't you/he do that this year?

Late night: Twins 7, Oakland 2

Darin Mastroianni had two hits, two runs scored, two
RBIs, a stolen base, a sac fly, a sac bunt ... and a good game.

Box score here

Game story here

A good start from Brian Duensing, his best start this year and arguably his best since 2010: six innings, two runs, one earned, five hits, one walk ... and seven (!) strikeouts.

Replicate that a few times in these final weeks and he may keep himself in the rotation discussion for 2013.

Pedro Florimon had a perfect day at the plate: 3-for-3 with a walk and three runs scored. He's now hitting an even .500 through four games with the Twins (6-for-12).

Obviously, he's not that good a hitter. Nobody is. He has an extensive minor league track record that establishes that he's a weak hitter.

He's looked good in the field, by and large, although he had a sloppy throw Monday that resulted in the unearned run charged to Duensing. For a glove-first shortstop, that is probably a bigger minus than any of his hits were a plus.

Notes, quotes and comment

Quick, without looking it up: Which current Twins player is an Olympic medalist?

---

Robin Ventura is having a good first season as manager.

The Chicago White Sox left Target Field on Wednesday having won the series — and in first place in the American League Central.

Not a bad season so far for a team whose general manager at one point during the winter used the word "rebuilding" to describe its status and his approach.

There is credit to be spread around, and some of it should go to Robin Ventura, the truly rookie manager of the Pale Hose.

Ventura's selection to succeed Ozzie Guillen raised eyebrows because he had not managed a team on any level. Nor had he been a coach. A successful player, absolutely— Ventura may be the best third baseman in franchise history — but making such a man the dugout boss without an intervening training period has long been regarded as a discredited approach.

I'm not aware of any specific change in on-field strategy or tactics between Guillen and Ventura. There is, however, an obvious difference in public persona. Ventura projects a aura of quiet professionalism. There is nothing quiet about Guillen.

---

Manny Acta and the Cleveland Indians have seen
enough of Derek Lowe.

While the White Sox doggedly remain atop the standings, the Cleveland Indians are rapidly fading. And on Wednesday they designated Derek Lowe and his 5.52 ERA for assignment.

Lowe is 39, and this may well be the end of his road; his strikeout rate this year is almost half his career norm, and his walk rate is nearly a career high.

Not many pitchers have led the league (in different seasons) in wins, saves and losses. Lowe has.

Lowe also holds this distinction: In 2004, he was the winning pitcher for the Red Sox in all three postseason series — Game Three of the division series against the Angels, Game Seven of the ALCS against the Yankees, Game Four of the World Series against St. Louis.

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Answer to the Olympian question above: Brian Duensing, who pitched for Team USA in the Beijing Games in 2008. The Americans won the bronze medal in those games, the last with baseball or softball in the mix.

Reshaping the staff once again

Brian Duensing's tenure in the
starting rotation lasted four starts.

Matt Capps, back to the disabled list.

Nick Blackburn, back to the majors and the rotation.

Brian Duensing, back to the bullpen.

The only part of this I truly like is Duesning in a relief role. I went into some detail on this just the other day, so I won't rehash the reasons. I thought this would happen at some point, but I didn't expect it to happen so soon.

Blackburn's return was inevitable; the Twins aren't paying him $4.75 million to pitch in Triple A. He's to start Friday. I don't really foresee any change from what happened before his demotion; while his ERA for Rochester was 2.57, he struck out just seven men in 21 innings. He got hit before, he'll get hit again.

Capps made just two low-leverage appearances after his first disabled list stint; his velocity was down, and he gave up a homer in the second appearance on Monday night. He won't be eligible to come off the DL until the trade deadline; he's not getting moved anywhere this month.

Capps has become a popular scapegoat, and unfairly so. Some won't forgive him for the price the front office paid to get him; some won't forgive him for re-upping with the Twins last winter. It's silly-stupid to blame him for either move; if Terry Ryan-Bill Smith-Ron Gardenhire overvalue him, that's not Capps' fault.

He's a decent relief pitcher when healthy. He hasn't been healthy all the time. And it's truly obnoxious to hear the same people who criticize Joe Mauer for sitting when he's hurt rip Capps for pitching when he's hurt.

With Capps out of the picture indefinitely, it appears Glen Perkins and Jared Burton will continue to share the closer duties.

One thing to watch now is how Tyler Robertson and Duensing are used. Robertson has held the LOOGY role while Duensing was in the rotation, and had some good moments and some bad. I was impressed Monday with how well Robertson handled Jim Thome after Gardenhire had him intentionally walk J.J. Hardy in the sixth inning.

Retiring lefties is Robertson's forte; it is also Duensing's.

When Duensing was inserted into the rotation, righties had an OPS (on-base-plus-slugging) of just .645 against him. Today their OPS against Duensing is .909.

The Twins have a new surplus of left-handed relievers. How much value there is in that remains to be seen.

Contemplating Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing's
2012 ERA is now 5.06.

Brian Duensing worked out of the Twins bullpen through June 19, at which point he had a 3.12 ERA in 30 outings, 34.2 innings. He had almost 2.5 strikeouts for each walk, he had allowed just one home run, he had a batting average allowed of .224.

He was having a solid season, this on the heels of a 2011 disaster spent largely as a starting pitcher.

On June 23 Duensing was moved to the starting rotation, and it has been ugly. In four starts, he has an ERA of 10.13.

He started Sunday and went just two innings. He threw 41 pitches in the first inning; he allowed three home runs in the second inning.

In four starts, he's worked a total of 13.1 innings, partly as a matter of slowly increasing his pitch count, partly because he had to leave a game after being hit by a line drive, partly because he's been so ineffective.

The word Sunday was that the Twins aren't about to pull him from the rotation yet. They will, it appears, remain patient -- in part, I suppose, because they aren't eager to return either Nick Blackburn or Liam Hendriks to the rotation, and they have no other obvious options.

That said, it is becoming increasingly difficult to take seriously the notion that he can be a rotation piece for the future.

There are two factors that appear to make Duensing better suited to the bullpen, two factors that may be related:

• He, like most pitchers, has better fastball velocity working in short bursts;
• He has a sharp platoon differential.

Oakland on Sunday had just two left-handed hitters in its lineup; Duensing, working with lesser velocity, is ill-equipped to deal with right-handers. As a reliever, his manager can usually find ways to have him face mostly lefties, and with better velocity, he can cope with the righties.

I don't blame the Twins for looking once more at him as a starter; they need starters, and a competent starter is more valuable than a good relief pitcher. And I can see a rationale for sticking with the experiment a bit longer.

But I've lost my optimism about the project.

Late night: Tigers 5, Twins 1

Brian Duensing was charged with two
earned runs in 4.1 innings Wednesday,
but with better defense behind him
neither run would have scored.

Box score here

Game story here

Another day, another rain delay, another starting pitcher down.

On Tuesday, the Twins demoted Liam Hendriks and brought back Cole DeVries. On Wednesday, they sent Nick Blackburn and his 8.10 ERA to Rochester and added reliever Casey Fien. This move left a question regarding who would start Sunday against the Rangers.

Then Brian Duensing, who was pitching better than his line score indicates, got nailed in the ankle by a line drive and limped off the field. DeVries, who was scheduled to start Saturday, wound up working two innings (28 pitches). I would now expect DeVries to start Sunday, but that merely moves the starter vacancy up a day to Saturday.

It's a mess. The Twins entered Wednesday with a five-game winning streak, but they had had just one quality start in those five games. The All-Star break and its four days off can't come quickly enough for this patchwork rotation and overworked bullpen.

Duensing is said to have a bruised ankle, no fracture, and presumably will be able to take the ball after the break. Also presumably, P.J. Walters, slated for his second rehab start this weekend, will rejoin the rotation.

At a guess, after the break, the rotation will go Scott Diamond, Francisco Liriano, Walters, Duensing and DeVries. But that is based on the supposition that Walters is ready and Duensing's ankle isn't worse than initially reported.

Contemplating Brian Duensing

Brian Duensing has
had the best
walk-to-strikeout
ratio of his career
so far this season.

Brian Duensing is to start today for the Twins. He will be the 10th pitcher to start a game for Minnesota, and that's not counting Scott Baker, who didn't make it out of spring training.

Duensing, of course, has twice before opened the season in the bullpen for the Twins and finished the year in the rotation. When he opened 2011 in the rotation, he had a terrible time retiring right-handed hitters, which is why he lost his starting job.

The platoon differential has not been an issue this year for Duensing; while he's been devastating against lefties out of the bullpen this season, he's held right-handers to a .645 OPS. They've gotten singles off him, but just four extra-base hits, all doubles.

This may be a temporary gig; when P.J. Walters went on the DL the word was that he expected to be back as soon as the 15 days was over, and if that's the case, he'll be available before the fifth starter's spot comes up again. (But there is a make-up doubleheader a week from today, so the team is going to need a sixth starter as a result.)

On the other hand, it's not like the Twins have been getting such strong starting pitching that they would, or should, be quick to dismiss a good outing from Duensing. Much of his good relief work has been wasted this season because the starters have so consistently put the team in a big hole early. A decent starter is more valuable than a good reliever.

Still: Moving Duensing out of the bullpen permanently would leave the Twins with one left-handed reliever, Glen Perkins, and he's not going to be used as a LOOGY. I don't see a lefty reliever in the upper minors who deserves a shot at the job. It's not the best reason to keep Duensing in the bullpen, but it's probably going to be a factor.