Tyler Duffey has been credited with the win in each of his last three appearances, including Friday and Saturday. (The Friday one was initially awarded to Sam Dyson and changed the next morning.)
"The Doof" -- that's what will be on the back of his Player's Weekend jersey -- is the rare Twins reliever who hasn't gotten a save. But he's 4-1 with seven holds, he's only blown one lead this year, he hasn't been charged with a run in almost a month, and he seems to currently be the preferred get-out-of-a-jam option in the middle innings.
Duffey has ridden a roller-coaster for his career. The Twins drafted him out of Rice University -- where he was a closer -- and made him a starter. He had 10 down-the-stretch starts in 2015 in which he was one of Paul Molitor's more reliable rotation arms.
And then it fell apart for him. In 2016 he got 26 starts and pitched to an ERA of 6.43. That did for him as a major-league starter.
In 2017 Molitor used him successfully for about two months as a multi-inning reliever with rest between outings. Then Molitor, dealing as he generally had to with a thin bullpen, tried to cut back on the rest. Duffey's ERA was 2.10 after his appearance on May 28; he finished the season at 4.94.
In 2018 he rode the Rochester shuttle and made just 19 major league appearances with an ERA of 7.20. Ugly.
He started this season that same shuttle, but once he came up a second time in May he's stuck. And his role has increased.
He has for years tried to pitch with two fastballs -- a two-seamer and a four-seamer -- but there wasn't much separation in velocity and he didn't get reliable movement with the two-seamer. It appears that he's largely junked that sinker this year. And his strikeout rate has spiked to more than 11 K/9 -- a statistical trait that makes him valuable with men on base.
Duffey is not closing games, but he's closing innings.
Showing posts with label Tyler Duffey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tyler Duffey. Show all posts
Monday, August 19, 2019
Monday, April 22, 2019
Fernando Romero and the search for bullpen depth
The Monday print column devoted about 475 words to pooh-poohing the notion that Craig Kimbrel is the solution to the Twins bullpen.
Which doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't be concerned about their bullpen depth. The Twins haven't blown leads with regularity, but they have certainly danced some uncomfortable tightropes. On Sunday both the eighth and ninth innings ended with Orioles on every base.
Blake Parker was reportedly ill and unavailable during the Baltimore sweep, so the Big Four was reduced to the Big Three. Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers all got the job done, if barely so. But even if Rogers can pitch today, I doubt he should after 45 pitches Saturday and Sunday.
The Twins could certainly use more stable outings from May. And they could certainly stand to have a fifth pitcher emerge as somebody manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson can turn to with some confidence.
Which brings us to Fernando Romero, the hard-thrower who graduated from the prospect list last year as a starter and has been converted to relief work. Romero was tabbed Saturday to be the 26th man for the second game of the doubleheader. He pitched two innings and allowed three runs in an unimpressive outing.
The wildly high upside to Romero in the bullpen is what Josh Hader provides the Brewers -- dominating stuff for multiple innings a couple days a week. Romero isn't close to that right now. Guys like Hader aren't mass produced, of course, and they're easy to burn out when they do turn up. And Romero isn't to be discarded because he isn't a right-handed version of Hader. But right now, he doesn't appear to be a good answer to the bullpen depth issue.
Romero, returned to Rochester, will doubtless get another chance down the road. For now, the Twins have to try some other possibilities.
Ryne Harper -- and Tyler Duffey -- are different kinds of answers. They are curve ball specialists, not power arms. We may in the next couple of weeks see one of them get some valuable innings. What I call the Greg McMichael Rule has eternal application: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you.
Harper and Duffey (to a more limited extent) have gotten outs. A role awaits.
Which doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't be concerned about their bullpen depth. The Twins haven't blown leads with regularity, but they have certainly danced some uncomfortable tightropes. On Sunday both the eighth and ninth innings ended with Orioles on every base.
Blake Parker was reportedly ill and unavailable during the Baltimore sweep, so the Big Four was reduced to the Big Three. Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers all got the job done, if barely so. But even if Rogers can pitch today, I doubt he should after 45 pitches Saturday and Sunday.
The Twins could certainly use more stable outings from May. And they could certainly stand to have a fifth pitcher emerge as somebody manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson can turn to with some confidence.
Which brings us to Fernando Romero, the hard-thrower who graduated from the prospect list last year as a starter and has been converted to relief work. Romero was tabbed Saturday to be the 26th man for the second game of the doubleheader. He pitched two innings and allowed three runs in an unimpressive outing.
The wildly high upside to Romero in the bullpen is what Josh Hader provides the Brewers -- dominating stuff for multiple innings a couple days a week. Romero isn't close to that right now. Guys like Hader aren't mass produced, of course, and they're easy to burn out when they do turn up. And Romero isn't to be discarded because he isn't a right-handed version of Hader. But right now, he doesn't appear to be a good answer to the bullpen depth issue.
Romero, returned to Rochester, will doubtless get another chance down the road. For now, the Twins have to try some other possibilities.
Ryne Harper -- and Tyler Duffey -- are different kinds of answers. They are curve ball specialists, not power arms. We may in the next couple of weeks see one of them get some valuable innings. What I call the Greg McMichael Rule has eternal application: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you.
Harper and Duffey (to a more limited extent) have gotten outs. A role awaits.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Contemplating Tyler Duffey
Tyler Duffey is back in the majors, having taken the berth previously occupied by Andrew Vasquez. He threw two scoreless innings on Tuesday after the Twins fell behind; it wasn't exactly a mop-up assignment, but it wasn't high leverage either.
The intriguing aspect to Duffey's return is his declared de-emphasis of his sinker (two-seam fastball). His focus is going to be pairing curves with four-seam fastballs up.
Duffey made a splash in the final two months of the 2015 season as a starter. He used two different curves -- one sharp and faster, one bigger and slower -- and two different fastballs -- two- and four-seamers -- and went 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA down the stretch.
What we don't see in that mix is a straight changeup. Neil Allen, then the Twins pitching coach, was really big on changeups. Duffey spent spring training the next year working on a changeup. He spent 2016 in the rotation -- 26 starts, second most on the team -- but put up a 6.43 ERA in 133 innings.
So 2017 found him in the bullpen, where he spent most of his collegiate career before the Twins drafted and signed him out of Rice. He was good for about a month and a half working multiple innings with two or three days off between outings, but things got rough when the thinness of the bullpen prompted manager Paul Molitor to start using him on consecutive days. And he's had just 27 major league innings the past two seasons combined.
My sense on Duffey's repertoire is complicated:
This is a oversimplification, but as a general rule, pitchers who throw four-seamers are going for strikeouts; pitchers who throw two-seamers are looking for weak contact. Duffey's four-seamer isn't all that fast, but if he can command it in the upper part of the strike zone, it's doing something different than his curves, which are supposed to bend and drop.
Command is the key. Keep that four-seamer up, change the hitter's eye level, and use that curveball. He needs a good run here before some of the injured relievers start coming back -- especially since Ryne Harper gives the Twins another right-hander who specializes in curves.
The intriguing aspect to Duffey's return is his declared de-emphasis of his sinker (two-seam fastball). His focus is going to be pairing curves with four-seam fastballs up.
Duffey made a splash in the final two months of the 2015 season as a starter. He used two different curves -- one sharp and faster, one bigger and slower -- and two different fastballs -- two- and four-seamers -- and went 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA down the stretch.
What we don't see in that mix is a straight changeup. Neil Allen, then the Twins pitching coach, was really big on changeups. Duffey spent spring training the next year working on a changeup. He spent 2016 in the rotation -- 26 starts, second most on the team -- but put up a 6.43 ERA in 133 innings.
So 2017 found him in the bullpen, where he spent most of his collegiate career before the Twins drafted and signed him out of Rice. He was good for about a month and a half working multiple innings with two or three days off between outings, but things got rough when the thinness of the bullpen prompted manager Paul Molitor to start using him on consecutive days. And he's had just 27 major league innings the past two seasons combined.
My sense on Duffey's repertoire is complicated:
- Two different curves and two different fastballs should be sufficent variation.
- There hasn't been a notable velocity difference between Duffey's two- and four-seam fastballs.
- There also doesn't seem to be much movement on his two-seamer.
- If a pitcher has two pitches of similar velocity and movement, he doesn't have two useable pitches. Duffey may grip them differently, but the hitters don't care.
This is a oversimplification, but as a general rule, pitchers who throw four-seamers are going for strikeouts; pitchers who throw two-seamers are looking for weak contact. Duffey's four-seamer isn't all that fast, but if he can command it in the upper part of the strike zone, it's doing something different than his curves, which are supposed to bend and drop.
Command is the key. Keep that four-seamer up, change the hitter's eye level, and use that curveball. He needs a good run here before some of the injured relievers start coming back -- especially since Ryne Harper gives the Twins another right-hander who specializes in curves.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
Goodbye, Duda
The Twins released Lucas Duda after informing the camp invitee that he wasn't going to make the roster. Presumably the camp invitee then informed the club that he would exercise his opt-out on Saturday, and they agreed to let him start looking for a new team immediately rather than wait a few more days.
None of this is surprising. Duda never seemed like a particularly good fit for the Twins roster. Like C.J. Cron and Tyler Austin, he's limited defensively to first base, he's older than either and he's been bouncing around the league. The Twins were his fifth organization since 2016.
But he had a three-year run -- 2015-2017 -- in which he hit 30, 27 and 30 homers, so I kept seeing superficial pieces that mentioned him as a key addition to the Twins. Those same pieces seldom mentioned Jonathan Schoop, who will be Minnesota's second baseman.
It was, in a sense, a useful barometer as a reader: If the writer thinks Duda a more significant piece than Schoop, it signaled a lack of knowledge.
The Twins also reassigned four prospects to minor league camp, so they are down to 36 in major league camp. None had a genuine chance of making the opening roster. Indeed, the only cut I can think of who had any realistic chance of coming north was Tyler Duffey, who was optioned out shortly after I listed him in the "Is there room" category of bullpen candidates.
But there was a development that figures to affect the opening roster. Lefty reliever Gabriel Moya has had some shoulder issues and appears destined for the injured list (new nomenclature for the disabled list). This would appear to enhance the status of Aldaberto Mejia and Tim Collins.
None of this is surprising. Duda never seemed like a particularly good fit for the Twins roster. Like C.J. Cron and Tyler Austin, he's limited defensively to first base, he's older than either and he's been bouncing around the league. The Twins were his fifth organization since 2016.
But he had a three-year run -- 2015-2017 -- in which he hit 30, 27 and 30 homers, so I kept seeing superficial pieces that mentioned him as a key addition to the Twins. Those same pieces seldom mentioned Jonathan Schoop, who will be Minnesota's second baseman.
It was, in a sense, a useful barometer as a reader: If the writer thinks Duda a more significant piece than Schoop, it signaled a lack of knowledge.
The Twins also reassigned four prospects to minor league camp, so they are down to 36 in major league camp. None had a genuine chance of making the opening roster. Indeed, the only cut I can think of who had any realistic chance of coming north was Tyler Duffey, who was optioned out shortly after I listed him in the "Is there room" category of bullpen candidates.
But there was a development that figures to affect the opening roster. Lefty reliever Gabriel Moya has had some shoulder issues and appears destined for the injured list (new nomenclature for the disabled list). This would appear to enhance the status of Aldaberto Mejia and Tim Collins.
Monday, August 20, 2018
Given the finger ...
The Twins returned Ervin Santana to the disabled list during the weekend. The post-surgical middle finger clearly wasn't up to the demands of major league pitching.
Presumably this is it for Santana as a Twin. He gave the Twins two solid seasons, one useless one, and one solid half-season marred by a steroid suspension.
I'm not down on him for this useless one. He did what he could with the injury last year and did what he could with the digit in rehab this year. He said something a couple of starts ago about giving the team 100 percent of what he had, and I accept that.
No, it's 2015 that still sticks in my craw. Who knows what that team would have accomplished had he not missed half the season with a self-inflicted banishment? The Twins were in the wild-card hunt right up to the end.
---
Two pitching moves over the weekend: Stephen Gonsalves comes up to replace Santana in the rotation -- he starts tonight against the White Sox -- and the Twins sub in Alan Busenitz for Tyler Duffey.
Gonsalves is an intriguing prospect. The fastball velocity is not overwhelming, the breaking ball is apparently mediocre, and the control record is not good. But he is absurdly difficult to hit. He has a good changeup, and the fastball is said to have a high spin rate, which apparently is an objective measurement that aligns with the old-school description of "sneaky fast."
He was taken in the same draft as Kohl Stewart but three rounds later and was generally moved up the ladder more slowly. But he was better than Stewart on every level.
I'm glad to see him up here now. I'm considerably more optimistic about Gonsalves's chances to be a useful major league starter than I am about Stewart.
As for the bullpen move: The Monday print column examines the current state of experimentation in the Twins bullpen. The trades of Fernando Rodney, Ryan Pressly and Zach Duke opened three significant roles in the relief corps, and with the exception of lefty specialist -- Taylor Rogers assumes that role and Gabriel Moya slides into Rogers' old slot -- Paul Molitor is holding open auditions.
It's a rather long column as these things go, and I didn't bother mentioning either Busenitz or Duffey. Thye're both clearly behind Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Matt Magill, and probably, absurd as it sounds, behind Oliver Drake as well.
Which doesn't mean either can't pitch their way into the Twins plans. It just means they're behind in the competition.
Presumably this is it for Santana as a Twin. He gave the Twins two solid seasons, one useless one, and one solid half-season marred by a steroid suspension.
I'm not down on him for this useless one. He did what he could with the injury last year and did what he could with the digit in rehab this year. He said something a couple of starts ago about giving the team 100 percent of what he had, and I accept that.
No, it's 2015 that still sticks in my craw. Who knows what that team would have accomplished had he not missed half the season with a self-inflicted banishment? The Twins were in the wild-card hunt right up to the end.
---
Two pitching moves over the weekend: Stephen Gonsalves comes up to replace Santana in the rotation -- he starts tonight against the White Sox -- and the Twins sub in Alan Busenitz for Tyler Duffey.
Gonsalves is an intriguing prospect. The fastball velocity is not overwhelming, the breaking ball is apparently mediocre, and the control record is not good. But he is absurdly difficult to hit. He has a good changeup, and the fastball is said to have a high spin rate, which apparently is an objective measurement that aligns with the old-school description of "sneaky fast."
He was taken in the same draft as Kohl Stewart but three rounds later and was generally moved up the ladder more slowly. But he was better than Stewart on every level.
I'm glad to see him up here now. I'm considerably more optimistic about Gonsalves's chances to be a useful major league starter than I am about Stewart.
As for the bullpen move: The Monday print column examines the current state of experimentation in the Twins bullpen. The trades of Fernando Rodney, Ryan Pressly and Zach Duke opened three significant roles in the relief corps, and with the exception of lefty specialist -- Taylor Rogers assumes that role and Gabriel Moya slides into Rogers' old slot -- Paul Molitor is holding open auditions.
It's a rather long column as these things go, and I didn't bother mentioning either Busenitz or Duffey. Thye're both clearly behind Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Matt Magill, and probably, absurd as it sounds, behind Oliver Drake as well.
Which doesn't mean either can't pitch their way into the Twins plans. It just means they're behind in the competition.
Friday, March 23, 2018
The opening roster takes shape
Hardly had I gotten Thursday's post published than the Twins did other than predicted. Tyler Duffey was optioned out (as was Alan Busenitz), leaving the Twins with 13 pitchers for 12 spots. The final spot figures to go to either Gabriel Moya or Tyler Kinley, with Kinley favored.
This suggests that the decison makers are confident that the starters are prepared to give them some length when the season opens next week. That hasn't been the outlook in recent years. Keeping Duffey and Phil Hughes would have given the Twins a fifth starter and a long reliever (or two spot starters/long men). Instead, it's just the post-operative Hughes.
Duffey will be used in relief in Rochester but in a stretched-out way, akin to how he was used last season. And he'll be in Minnesota sooner than later. There will be a need for innings out of the bullpen.
More surprising to me, in truth, was the lopping of veteran non-roster infielder Erick Aybar. I had been resigned to the notion that the suspension of Jorge Polanco and the uncertainty over Miguel Sano meant that Aybar, who hit well early in camp and then faded, was going to be on the opening roster.
Instead, it appears that the Twins intend to have five outfielders open the season in the majors. This may be related to Eddie Rosario's multi-week issues with his throwing elbow.
The conventional wisdom has Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite as the extra outfielders. I wouldn't rule out Ryan LaMarre, but he does have the significant disadvantage of being a non-roster guy.
And Mitch Garver will be the backup catcher. Bobby Wilson and Willians Astudillo were both told they won't be on the opening roster.
---
Kennys Vargas was claimed on waivers by the Cincinnati Reds, which is a bit puzzling. The Reds, as a National League team, have little need for a designated hitter, and Vargas should not be taking at-bats away from the great Joey Votto.
Best guess is that the Reds will quickly waive Vargas in hopes of stashing him at Triple A, which I think is what the Twins were hoping to do.
This suggests that the decison makers are confident that the starters are prepared to give them some length when the season opens next week. That hasn't been the outlook in recent years. Keeping Duffey and Phil Hughes would have given the Twins a fifth starter and a long reliever (or two spot starters/long men). Instead, it's just the post-operative Hughes.
Duffey will be used in relief in Rochester but in a stretched-out way, akin to how he was used last season. And he'll be in Minnesota sooner than later. There will be a need for innings out of the bullpen.
More surprising to me, in truth, was the lopping of veteran non-roster infielder Erick Aybar. I had been resigned to the notion that the suspension of Jorge Polanco and the uncertainty over Miguel Sano meant that Aybar, who hit well early in camp and then faded, was going to be on the opening roster.
Instead, it appears that the Twins intend to have five outfielders open the season in the majors. This may be related to Eddie Rosario's multi-week issues with his throwing elbow.
The conventional wisdom has Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite as the extra outfielders. I wouldn't rule out Ryan LaMarre, but he does have the significant disadvantage of being a non-roster guy.
And Mitch Garver will be the backup catcher. Bobby Wilson and Willians Astudillo were both told they won't be on the opening roster.
---
Kennys Vargas was claimed on waivers by the Cincinnati Reds, which is a bit puzzling. The Reds, as a National League team, have little need for a designated hitter, and Vargas should not be taking at-bats away from the great Joey Votto.
Best guess is that the Reds will quickly waive Vargas in hopes of stashing him at Triple A, which I think is what the Twins were hoping to do.
Monday, July 10, 2017
Contemplatng Tyler Duffey
It was the kind of situation Tyler Duffey had excelled at for most of this season: The starting pitcher (in this case Kyle Gibson) was struggling in the fifth inning, but the Twins were still in the game, down two with a man on and no outs. The obvious notion was for Duffey to work the fifth and sixth innings and keep the Twins in the game. This, as I have repeatedly observed, is Duffey's role on the staff.
But Duffey did not excel Sunday. Single, groundout, single, double. goundout,. fly out. Not only did the inherited runner score, but so did two more runs charged to Duffey, and the Twins were down five.
Duffey's ERA, as low as 2.10 on May 28, is now 4.81. Sunday's appearance was the fifth straight in which he allowed at least two baserunners.
My sense is that Paul Molitor in the past month or so has tried to expand Duffey's role, to not only include the middle-relief multiple inning assignment but to be the primary right-handed setup guy. He has worked back-to-back days four times now this season, the first on May 28, so the no-rest outings have gome in this rough stretch.
This is the problem with a thin bullpen, that the reliable guys get used so much that they break. Perhaps four days off will revive Duffey. But even if Duffey bounces back, the Twins still need a righty Molitor can use in the seventh or eighth innings so Duffey can settle back into that fifth and sixth inning role.
But Duffey did not excel Sunday. Single, groundout, single, double. goundout,. fly out. Not only did the inherited runner score, but so did two more runs charged to Duffey, and the Twins were down five.
Duffey's ERA, as low as 2.10 on May 28, is now 4.81. Sunday's appearance was the fifth straight in which he allowed at least two baserunners.
My sense is that Paul Molitor in the past month or so has tried to expand Duffey's role, to not only include the middle-relief multiple inning assignment but to be the primary right-handed setup guy. He has worked back-to-back days four times now this season, the first on May 28, so the no-rest outings have gome in this rough stretch.
This is the problem with a thin bullpen, that the reliable guys get used so much that they break. Perhaps four days off will revive Duffey. But even if Duffey bounces back, the Twins still need a righty Molitor can use in the seventh or eighth innings so Duffey can settle back into that fifth and sixth inning role.
Monday, June 5, 2017
The bullpen and facing Pujols
It worked, but I really didn't like very much about how Paul Molitor handled the Twins bullpen in the eighth inning Sunday.
Jose Berrios gave the Twins six innings and got a 3-2 lead to the seventh inning. Tyler Duffey entered and threw a 1-2-3 inning, turning the Angels lineup over.
Duffey has frequently worked two innings at a time, and I expected that to be the case again Sunday. But those two-inning outings are generally the sixth and seventh, not seventh and eighth, and the Angels had left-handed hitting Kole Calhoun leading off the eighth and another left-handed hitter, Luis Valbuena, scheduled third.
So Molitor brought in Taylor Rogers, his favored lefty reliever. I didn't care for this move, in part because Calhoun had already homered off Rogers (and off fellow lefty Adalberto Mejia) in the series, and in part because Duffey is just a better pitcher than Rogers.
But Molitor went for the platoon advantage. Rogers fell behind Calhoun and walked him. Then Rogers got Yunel Escobar to ground into a force out.
And here came Albert Pujols to pinch hit for Valbuena. And Molitor went to the pen for Matt Belisle.
Again, I didn't care for this move. The basic truth is, Pujols in 2017 should not scare an opposing manager. I know that's sacrilegious, but as I said in the Monday print column, Pujols at age 37 is a shadow of his greatness. And he is doing almost nothing against left-handers (slash line vs. southpaws .186/.255/.302).
Rogers hasn't allowed a homer to a righty this year. Belisle is averaging a home run allowed every six innings. If you looked for the matchup in the Twins bullpen most favorable to Pujols, Belisle is probably the pick. I wouldn't have had Rogers in the game to start with, but once in I wouldn't have pulled him for anybody by Brandon Kintzler.
So, naturally, Pujols hit the second pitch he saw on the ground to third for an easy double play (he has bad feet and can't run). Kintzler got the ninth and did his thing, and the Twins won.
As I view that inning, Molitor steadily deceased the competence of the pitcher and worked unfavorable matchups. He used four relievers in the game, and the two best relievers faced the weakest hitters, while the two weakest bullpenners faced the middle of the Angels lineup (with Mike Trout injured, that's not saying much, but Calhoun/Escobar/Valbuena/Pujols are still better than the other stiffs).
I didn't like any of it. But it worked.
Jose Berrios gave the Twins six innings and got a 3-2 lead to the seventh inning. Tyler Duffey entered and threw a 1-2-3 inning, turning the Angels lineup over.
Duffey has frequently worked two innings at a time, and I expected that to be the case again Sunday. But those two-inning outings are generally the sixth and seventh, not seventh and eighth, and the Angels had left-handed hitting Kole Calhoun leading off the eighth and another left-handed hitter, Luis Valbuena, scheduled third.
So Molitor brought in Taylor Rogers, his favored lefty reliever. I didn't care for this move, in part because Calhoun had already homered off Rogers (and off fellow lefty Adalberto Mejia) in the series, and in part because Duffey is just a better pitcher than Rogers.
But Molitor went for the platoon advantage. Rogers fell behind Calhoun and walked him. Then Rogers got Yunel Escobar to ground into a force out.
And here came Albert Pujols to pinch hit for Valbuena. And Molitor went to the pen for Matt Belisle.
Again, I didn't care for this move. The basic truth is, Pujols in 2017 should not scare an opposing manager. I know that's sacrilegious, but as I said in the Monday print column, Pujols at age 37 is a shadow of his greatness. And he is doing almost nothing against left-handers (slash line vs. southpaws .186/.255/.302).
Rogers hasn't allowed a homer to a righty this year. Belisle is averaging a home run allowed every six innings. If you looked for the matchup in the Twins bullpen most favorable to Pujols, Belisle is probably the pick. I wouldn't have had Rogers in the game to start with, but once in I wouldn't have pulled him for anybody by Brandon Kintzler.
So, naturally, Pujols hit the second pitch he saw on the ground to third for an easy double play (he has bad feet and can't run). Kintzler got the ninth and did his thing, and the Twins won.
As I view that inning, Molitor steadily deceased the competence of the pitcher and worked unfavorable matchups. He used four relievers in the game, and the two best relievers faced the weakest hitters, while the two weakest bullpenners faced the middle of the Angels lineup (with Mike Trout injured, that's not saying much, but Calhoun/Escobar/Valbuena/Pujols are still better than the other stiffs).
I didn't like any of it. But it worked.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
From the Handbook: Tyler Duffey's pitches
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| Tyler Duffey went 9-12, 6.43 in 2016. |
One of the many things that went wrong with the 2016 Twins was the marked decline in effectiveness of starting pitcher Tyler Duffey. He was one of their better starters down the stretch in 2015; he was not good in 2016.
I had two theories, not mutually exclusive, about what was wrong with Duffey:
- The sharp increase in his 2015 workload caught up to him in 2016
- The insistance of pitching coach Neil Allen that everybody on the staff throw a changeup had Duffey using a mediocre pitch too often
A variation of that latter: Trying to master a change detracted from his fastball command.
These numbers don't confirm any of those theories. But Duffey's pitch selection changed a bit this year from 2015;
2015: 58 percent fastballs, 40 percent curves, 2 percent changeups
2016: 54 percent fastballs, 39 percent curves, 7 percent changeups.
Assuming 100 pitches per start, that's just one less curveball per game. But he certainly essayed more changeups, throwing five more per game. His average fastball velocity was essentially the same (actually increased by 0.2 mph).
Seven changeups per game doesn't seem excessive, and anecdotally, I don't seem to recall him getting burned on the pitch. I'm more inclined to blame a deterioration of his fastball command. Whether that came from his workload increase or experimenting with a new pitch -- or both -- I don't know.
Friday, August 26, 2016
Rotation merry-go-round
Tyler Duffey had a poor start Wednesday night. Jose Berrios had a poor start Thursday afternoon.
And now both are back in the minors, with Andrew Albers and Alex Wimmers recalled.
Berrios has now made nine starts in the majors, and his ERA is just south of 9. His command is obviously not there. He clearly has stuff to work on. And Duffey has been effective in just two of his last seven starts. It's hard for Paul Molitor to keep trotting them out every fifth game.
That said, these two are a lot more likely to be important pitchers in the majors than Albers or Wimmers.
Berrios is the most talented pitcher Twins have, and the team is just throwing up its hands and saying "we have no idea how to handle him."— Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot) August 25, 2016
I don't know that that's exactly fair, but ... Mike Berardino had a piece recently describing Berrios' side session. There was the pitching coach, the bullpen coach, the number one starter and the Hall of Fame pitcher/broadcaster all there offering the rookie advice. Nothing like overwhelming the kid, huh?
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Wimmers' callup isn't official, but it's been widely reported on the interwebs. His has been a torturous trip to the bigs: First round pick out of Ohio State in 2010, a rapid fall from grace the next year when he lost the strike zone, Tommy John surgery, seven seasons of grinding in the minors without ever having a true breakthrough season.
The Twins have twice exposed him to the Rule 5 draft. Nobody's taken him. Even this season hasn't been all that good -- ERA 4.04 at two levels.
Wimmers was described leading into the 2010 draft as a polished strike-throwing machine who likely wouldn't take long to make it to the majors. It sure hasn't worked out that way.
---
I'm not sure what the starting rotation is now. Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson, sure. Supposedly Hector Santiago was going to be held back because of a sore thumb, and now Berrios and Duffey are out of the picture at least until sometime in September. So there are at least two, maybe three, immediate vacancies.
I'm guessing Albers and Pat Dean will fill two of those slots. The Twins don't have an off day again until Sept. 8, so if Santiago has to be skipped somebody else has to fill in. Wimmers hasn't started a game all season, but considering that Jorge Polanco didn't play shortstop at all in the minors and has been pretty much a fixture there for the past three weeks, maybe Molitor intends to do the same with Wimmers.
Monday, August 15, 2016
Contemplating Tyler Duffey
I do not understand Tyler Duffey, or at least his 2016 pitching. His season, to steal from Winston Churchill, is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
His ERA is 5.71, which is terrible and still a half-run lower than it was on Aug. 7, but his FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching, which is intended to account for the vagaries of the fielding prowess behind him -- is more than a run lower. Right handers are hitting him better than left-handers (9.58 OPS to .738). His walk to strikeout ratio, one of my favored indices of pitching, is actually sharply improved over his 2015 major league figure. He leads the Twins starters in wins (8) but has only six quality starts.)
Duffey is third on the team in starts and innings and will soon pass the departed Ricky Nolasco in those workload figures. Of the four men with more than a dozen starts, he has the fewest walks allowed and the best strikeout rate. And -- killer figure here -- he leads the staff in home runs allowed.
Until this year, Duffey was stingy with homers. In his 58 major league innings last year, he allowed four taters (0.6 per nine innings). In the minors, at all levels and including his three games at Rochester, even better -- 0.5 homers per nine innings. This year in the majors, 19 homers in 108.2 innings, 1.6 homers per nine innings.
I've offered and seen various theories about Duffey's struggles. He's throwing too many changeups. He's throwing too many curves. It's the 2015 innings increase catching up to him. He's too emotional on the mound.
There might be truth to all of that. What is certain: the team's new management will be casting a fresh eye on this pitching staff, and Duffey has to establish if he is a question -- or an answer.
His ERA is 5.71, which is terrible and still a half-run lower than it was on Aug. 7, but his FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching, which is intended to account for the vagaries of the fielding prowess behind him -- is more than a run lower. Right handers are hitting him better than left-handers (9.58 OPS to .738). His walk to strikeout ratio, one of my favored indices of pitching, is actually sharply improved over his 2015 major league figure. He leads the Twins starters in wins (8) but has only six quality starts.)
Duffey is third on the team in starts and innings and will soon pass the departed Ricky Nolasco in those workload figures. Of the four men with more than a dozen starts, he has the fewest walks allowed and the best strikeout rate. And -- killer figure here -- he leads the staff in home runs allowed.
Until this year, Duffey was stingy with homers. In his 58 major league innings last year, he allowed four taters (0.6 per nine innings). In the minors, at all levels and including his three games at Rochester, even better -- 0.5 homers per nine innings. This year in the majors, 19 homers in 108.2 innings, 1.6 homers per nine innings.
I've offered and seen various theories about Duffey's struggles. He's throwing too many changeups. He's throwing too many curves. It's the 2015 innings increase catching up to him. He's too emotional on the mound.
There might be truth to all of that. What is certain: the team's new management will be casting a fresh eye on this pitching staff, and Duffey has to establish if he is a question -- or an answer.
Monday, June 27, 2016
Notes from the weekend
I said last week that the Monday print column would be about the trade of Oswaldo Arcia, and so it is. A tangent or two I didn't follow in that piece:
I expected that Tampa Bay would try to protect its pitchers by restricting Arcia to designated hitter. But his first two games with the Rays came in right field.
Arcia drove in four runs in those two games. The Rays lost them both anyway; they have lost 11 in a row, a depth even the Twins haven't plumbed this year.
---
One of my first thoughts at the news that Arcia had been traded to Tampa Bay for a player to be named was: "Maybe they can get Hu back."
Chih-Wei Hu is the Taiwanese right-hander the Twins sacrificed last year to get Kevin Jepsen from the Rays. I hadn't checked in on him this year, so that thought prompted a stat check.
Conclusion: Not very likely. Hu, now 22, plays for Montgomery in the Double A Southern League (same league the Twins have their Double A affiliate in), and he put up a 2.34 ERA in his first 13 starts. He also has one Triple A appearance, which didn't go as well as his one Triple A appearance last year did.
Arcia will have to be mighty productive in Tampa Bay to merit an upper-level prospect as productive as Hu has been.
---
Tyler Duffey had been pretty brutal in recent starts, but he sure had a good one Sunday: two hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in eight innings.
Whatever inclination the Twins might have had to move Duffey out of the rotation has probably been shut down now.
I expected that Tampa Bay would try to protect its pitchers by restricting Arcia to designated hitter. But his first two games with the Rays came in right field.
Arcia drove in four runs in those two games. The Rays lost them both anyway; they have lost 11 in a row, a depth even the Twins haven't plumbed this year.
---
One of my first thoughts at the news that Arcia had been traded to Tampa Bay for a player to be named was: "Maybe they can get Hu back."
Chih-Wei Hu is the Taiwanese right-hander the Twins sacrificed last year to get Kevin Jepsen from the Rays. I hadn't checked in on him this year, so that thought prompted a stat check.
Conclusion: Not very likely. Hu, now 22, plays for Montgomery in the Double A Southern League (same league the Twins have their Double A affiliate in), and he put up a 2.34 ERA in his first 13 starts. He also has one Triple A appearance, which didn't go as well as his one Triple A appearance last year did.
Arcia will have to be mighty productive in Tampa Bay to merit an upper-level prospect as productive as Hu has been.
---
Tyler Duffey had been pretty brutal in recent starts, but he sure had a good one Sunday: two hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in eight innings.
Whatever inclination the Twins might have had to move Duffey out of the rotation has probably been shut down now.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Contemplating Tyler Duffey
 |
| Tyler Duffey was a 5th-round pick in the 2012 draft. |
After Tuesday's ugly start (three innings, six runs, three homers), Duffey this season has worked 59.2 innings with a 6.18 ERA. Almost the same amount of innings, almost double the runs allowed.
I had been inclined to blame Duffey's spring training struggles on a one-size-fits-all coaching philosophy. Neil Allen wants everybody to throw a changeup, and Duffey didn't last season. He threw two fast balls (four seam and two seam) and two curves (one smaller and harder, the other larger and slower). Duffey entered camp with a rotation spot and was urged to spend spring training developing a straight change. He did so, got hammered, and wound up losing the rotation spot for a few weeks with a minor league demotion.
But now he's in the majors, he's not (apparently) getting hit on changeups, and he's nowhere near the out machine he was down the stretch in 2015.
His strikeout rate is slightly lower this year, but his walk rate has improved, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is much better. Those are the leading indicator stats that still give me some optimism about Duffey.
But those home runs are sure adding up: eleven and counting this year, after just four in his rookie year. He yielded three Tuesday night alone.
To me, this suggests that control and stuff aren't the issue. Command is. Drawing a connection between his 2016 struggles and his big increase in innings (majors and minors combined) in 2015 may not be accurate, but it's possible the latter caused the former.
So where do the Twins and Duffey go from here? Duffey has to be considered a candidate for demotion, but Jose Berrios hasn't exactly been tearing it up in Triple A since his demotion, and the only other healthy starters left on the 40-man roster are the just-demoted Pat Dean (not eligible yet for recall) and Randy Rosario, who is in high A ball and not anywhere near the radar screen for a callup.
Between the shortage of viable alternatives and the still-respectable walk and strikeout stats, I would advocate patience with Duffey at this point, but I can't say I'm very enthusiastic about that recommendation.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Selling shares of a pitcher
 |
| Take a guess on what Tyler Duffey's career earnings will be. |
In Duffey's case, he's to get $2.23 million now in exchange for 10 percent of his "future on- and off-field cash flows." Of the six baseball players named in the linked Associated Press story, Duffey is getting the smallest amount. Jonathan Schoop, Baltimore second baseman, is the highest; he will get $4.91 million for 10 percent of his future earnings.
Fantex also announced deals with one NFL player and four golfers and is still devising the securities it intends to market to investors. I am probably not their target market, and I'm not particularly eager to buy player futures with my retirement savings.
I am, however, intrigued by the decision of these athletes to sell a substantial portion of their future for cash upfront. My reading of the story is that these deals have yet to kick in, so presumably Duffey has neither received his payment nor started to give up 10 percent of his salary. But essentially Fantex and Duffey are wagering on whether he tops $22.3 million in career earnings. If Duffey turns into Boof Bonser, he gets $2.23 million and Fantex gets, presumably, less than $200,000; if Duffey matches Ricky Nolasco's career earnings (counting what Nolasco is to get during his current contract), Fantex gets 10 percent of some $85 million, which is a pretty nice profit.
Duffey is hedging against a possible career-altering injury, which is a reasonable choice. That is why some players will sign multi-year deals that buy out their arbitration years and/or a year or more of free agency; these deals are often seen as team-friendly because they limit the player's upside, but they also guarantee life-altering money. (At $40,000 a year, it would take 55 years to earn $2.23 million.)
Duffey now, presumably, has the freedom to turn down such an offer from the Twins, should the Twins be inclined to make such an offer.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
Fixing what ain't broke
 |
| I haven't the slightest notion of what Tyler Duffey's doing here. |
I am trying to be sanguine about this. As I've said in recent posts, the Twins (and virtually every other team) will use about eight starting pitchers in the coming season. Duffey will almost certainly be one of them even if he doesn't open the season in Minnesota.
But to the extent that Duffey lost the rotation spot that he had been penciled in for because he was trying to develop his changeup -- as opposed to, perhaps, pitching poorly as the result of his workload increase last season -- well, that's irritating because it probably wasn't necessary.
The pitching repertoire lists show Duffey as a two-pitch pitcher. The Bill James Handbook says Duffey threw 58 percent fastballs last year with the Twins, 40 percent curves, 2 percent changes. By all accounts, Duffey put the change "in his back pocket" down the stretch.
But ... he throws two fastballs and two curves, as detailed in this Fangraphs piece. (The piece was posted Tuesday just before Duffey's demotion was announced.) Duffey throws both the two-seam fastball (aka sinker) and the four-seam fastball. And he throws two distinct types of curves, with different speeds and "shapes."
That's four pitches, not two. Now, there is an oddity about the fastballs; Most two-fastball pitchers get noticeably greater velocity out of their four-seamer than from their two-seamer. Duffey says his are about the same speed. So maybe the fastballs would more accurately count as 1.5, but he clearly thinks of them as different pitches. One moves, the other does not.
Anyway, the change would be a fifth pitch, and there comes a point for any pitcher when the repertoire becomes too large.
Neil Allen, the Twins pitching coach, believes strongly in the changeup, and for most pitchers that's legitimate. Duffey himself in the Fangraphs piece sounds convinced that he'll need an effective changeup. I'm not so sure. I'm afraid the push for a change is fixing something that wasn't broken, until they broke it.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
The fifth starter outcome tree
Neither Tyler Duffey -- who pitched the "major league" games against a collection of Pirates scrubs in Bradenton -- nor Ricky Nolasco -- who pitched against minor leaguers on a back field at the Twins complex in Fort Myers -- was all that impressive Monday.
Still, a decision on the fifth starter's job is expected this morning, and the conventional wisdom has it that Nolasco -- with a superficially superior spring training ERA, inflexible roster status and $25 million owed him over the next two years -- will get the nod.
The best case for going with Duffey is probably this: He was told going into camp that he was penciled into the rotation and he should focus on working on his changeup. He worked on his changeup and got shelled. If he gets demoted today, there's a genuine possibility that he'll go away believing that he was either lied to or set up to fail.
Beyond that, these are the possible outcomes if Duffey is indeed demoted:
1) Nolasco (or somebody else in the rotation) gets hurt or fails and Duffey is recalled to take his place.
2) The five starters all make 30 or more starts and throw 200 or so innings, in which case nobody's going to criticize management. It would also be the first time, I believe, that the Twins have had five starters make at least 30 starts apiece. So that second outcome is unlikely.
Bottom line: If Duffey isn't in the rotation to open the season, he's likely to be in the rotation at some point.
The line on Tyler Duffey: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR. His Grapefruit League ERA is 7.30. #MNTwins— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) March 28, 2016
Nolasco through 5: 4 2/3 IP, 5 hits, 2 xbh, 3 runs, 2 earned, 2 walks, 5 Ks, 1 WP. 84 pitches, 55 strikes.— Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) March 28, 2016
Still, a decision on the fifth starter's job is expected this morning, and the conventional wisdom has it that Nolasco -- with a superficially superior spring training ERA, inflexible roster status and $25 million owed him over the next two years -- will get the nod.
The best case for going with Duffey is probably this: He was told going into camp that he was penciled into the rotation and he should focus on working on his changeup. He worked on his changeup and got shelled. If he gets demoted today, there's a genuine possibility that he'll go away believing that he was either lied to or set up to fail.
Beyond that, these are the possible outcomes if Duffey is indeed demoted:
1) Nolasco (or somebody else in the rotation) gets hurt or fails and Duffey is recalled to take his place.
2) The five starters all make 30 or more starts and throw 200 or so innings, in which case nobody's going to criticize management. It would also be the first time, I believe, that the Twins have had five starters make at least 30 starts apiece. So that second outcome is unlikely.
Bottom line: If Duffey isn't in the rotation to open the season, he's likely to be in the rotation at some point.
Friday, March 25, 2016
That Triple A rotation
I took note about a week ago of Terry Ryan saying that the Twins might have more starters for Triple A Rochester than they have slots. He knew (naturally) what he was talking about.
Start with Jose Berrios, the team's top pitch prospect. Alex Meyer's major league future, if any, is probably in the bullpen, but he's going to start at Rochester to get innings. Taylor Rogers, who made 27 starts for Rochester last year and was sent out this week, figures to start there; so does Pat Dean, who also started 27 times for the Red Wings in 2015 and was part of the first wave of cuts. That's four.
We've accounted for four of the five rotation spots without figuring in any promotions for Double A Chattanooga -- which, you may recall, won the Southern League title. Some pitchers from the Lookouts might merit a move up the ladder, the most likely being Brett Lee and D.J. Baxendale.
Then there's Logan Darnell, who spent most of 2015 in the Red Wings bullpen but made seven strong starts at the end of the season. Darnell, a lefty, is still in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
An added wild card in all this is Tyler Duffey, who has not had a good spring and may get squeezed out of the major league rotation despite his impressive finish to the 2015 season. One factor working against Duffey: He has options. The other starters do not.
It's possible that some team looking to plug a rotation hole would take Ricky Nolasco off the Twins hands. It's possible that the Twins will stick with Duffey and risk Nolasco's discontent with a bullpen assignment. It's also possible that the Twins will take the path of maximum flexibility and demote Duffey to start the season.
Remember: Teams have to expect to use at least eight starters over the course of a season. They have to have starting depth, and some of that depth has to be optionable. Duffey is optionable.
Start with Jose Berrios, the team's top pitch prospect. Alex Meyer's major league future, if any, is probably in the bullpen, but he's going to start at Rochester to get innings. Taylor Rogers, who made 27 starts for Rochester last year and was sent out this week, figures to start there; so does Pat Dean, who also started 27 times for the Red Wings in 2015 and was part of the first wave of cuts. That's four.
We've accounted for four of the five rotation spots without figuring in any promotions for Double A Chattanooga -- which, you may recall, won the Southern League title. Some pitchers from the Lookouts might merit a move up the ladder, the most likely being Brett Lee and D.J. Baxendale.
Then there's Logan Darnell, who spent most of 2015 in the Red Wings bullpen but made seven strong starts at the end of the season. Darnell, a lefty, is still in major league camp as a non-roster invitee.
An added wild card in all this is Tyler Duffey, who has not had a good spring and may get squeezed out of the major league rotation despite his impressive finish to the 2015 season. One factor working against Duffey: He has options. The other starters do not.
It's possible that some team looking to plug a rotation hole would take Ricky Nolasco off the Twins hands. It's possible that the Twins will stick with Duffey and risk Nolasco's discontent with a bullpen assignment. It's also possible that the Twins will take the path of maximum flexibility and demote Duffey to start the season.
Remember: Teams have to expect to use at least eight starters over the course of a season. They have to have starting depth, and some of that depth has to be optionable. Duffey is optionable.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
More pitching developments
 |
| Taylor Rogers was a bullpen candidate this spring but is likely to start for Triple A Rochester to open 2016. |
Boshers' departure is no surprise. Graham, who spent last season on the major league roster as a Rule 5 guy, no longer has that protection; if anything, I am surprised it took this long for the Twins to send him out. Rogers, on the other hand, I genuinely thought would wind up coming north.
The Twins also on Wednesday outrighted Mike Strong, the Minnesota-born lefty they sent out in the first wave of cuts. This opens a slot on the 40-man roster, and the expectation is that it will be filled by Fernando Abad, veteran lefty reliever in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Let's slot Abad into the projected bullpen I posted Wednesday morning:
Closer: Glen Perkins
 |
| Fernando Abad has allowed one run in 6.1 innings in Grapefruit League games. |
Setup 2: Trevor May
MR 1: Casey Fien
LOOGY 1: Fernando Abad?
MR 2: Open
Long man: Ricky Nolasco?
Which brings us, more or less, to Nolasco. Nolasco threw six shutout innings in the major league game, albeit against a minor league lineup. (The Rays took their major league lineup to Havana on Tuesday, then spent seven hours trapped on the tarmac by mechanical issues and ultimately arrived back in Port Charlotte around 5 a.m.) Tyler Duffey also pitched to a minor league lineup in a minor league game and got lit up.
Nolasco has now pitched 13.1 innings in Grapefruit League play to a 4.05 ERA, Duffey, 8.1 innings, 6.48 (minor league games such as Wednesday's not included). It would be foolish to judge the two on the basis of less than 23 combined innings; of more significance would be how their stuff looks, the quality of competition, what they're working on, and so forth.
The Twins entered camp with three starters written into their rotation in ink (Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes) and one more in pencil (Duffey). Duffey has spluttered this spring, in part, perhaps, because he is trying to develop a straight change. There is speculation that the eraser is out for Duffey's rotation berth.
I can see some silver linings to that development, but it is not my first choice, and it probably isn't the Twins' preference either.
Friday, January 15, 2016
My caveat on Tyler Duffey
Earlier in the week I voiced optimism about Tyler Duffey, with a caveat I promised to explain "tomorrow." Then Monte Irvin died, and I got sidetracked for a couple of days.
Back, now, to Duffey.
He made 10 starts, 58 innings, for the Twins with an ERA of 3.10. Add up his innings in Double A, Triple A and the majors, and he threw 196 innings for the season, a significant increase in his workload from 2014.
What's more he relied heavily on his curve ball, at least in the majors. According to Baseball Info Systems, as recorded in the Bill James Handbook, Duffey threw 58 percent fastballs, 40 percent curves and 2 percent change-ups in the majors.
That's a high percentage of curves. Of the qualified starters (minimum 162 innings) in the majors, the highest percentage of curves was Jose Quintana of the White Sox, and he threw 30.9 percent curves. Only a couple of relievers matched Duffey in percentage of curves thrown.
Anecdotally, heavy use of the curve is linked to arm issues. Steve Stone, longtime broadcaster, has said many times that he knew during his 25-win season in 1980 (for which he won the Cy Young Award) that he was throwing his curve so often that it was going to shorten his career.
Bert Blyleven, whose curve was legendary, might dispute that notion, but Blyleven frequently talks as if pitching injuries are purely random. And it's always important to remember that Blyleven himself was unique in baseball history -- reached the majors as a teen, threw 278 innings at age 20, had no significant arm issues until his 30s and remained a a fastball-curve pitcher into his 40s. There is literally nobody else like that in baseball history.
Duffey's average fastball, according to the Handbook, was a bit above 90 mph, which is hardly prime velocity these days. He obviously doesn't have a lot of faith in his straight change, a trait common to pitchers with standout curves; it's more common to see a pitcher with a high-quality change use a slider for his breaking ball than a curve. Blyleven, for example, never really had a good change; he could change speeds on the bender, and that was enough.
There have been plenty of successful fastball-curve pitchers over the generations, but I don't know that many of them threw 40 percent curves. (I'd love to know what percentage of Blyleven's pitches were curve balls.) And there's my caveat on Duffey: He exhibited in 2015 a mix of pitches unique in today's game, and I'm not sure it's sustainable.
Back, now, to Duffey.
He made 10 starts, 58 innings, for the Twins with an ERA of 3.10. Add up his innings in Double A, Triple A and the majors, and he threw 196 innings for the season, a significant increase in his workload from 2014.
What's more he relied heavily on his curve ball, at least in the majors. According to Baseball Info Systems, as recorded in the Bill James Handbook, Duffey threw 58 percent fastballs, 40 percent curves and 2 percent change-ups in the majors.
That's a high percentage of curves. Of the qualified starters (minimum 162 innings) in the majors, the highest percentage of curves was Jose Quintana of the White Sox, and he threw 30.9 percent curves. Only a couple of relievers matched Duffey in percentage of curves thrown.
Anecdotally, heavy use of the curve is linked to arm issues. Steve Stone, longtime broadcaster, has said many times that he knew during his 25-win season in 1980 (for which he won the Cy Young Award) that he was throwing his curve so often that it was going to shorten his career.
Bert Blyleven, whose curve was legendary, might dispute that notion, but Blyleven frequently talks as if pitching injuries are purely random. And it's always important to remember that Blyleven himself was unique in baseball history -- reached the majors as a teen, threw 278 innings at age 20, had no significant arm issues until his 30s and remained a a fastball-curve pitcher into his 40s. There is literally nobody else like that in baseball history.
Duffey's average fastball, according to the Handbook, was a bit above 90 mph, which is hardly prime velocity these days. He obviously doesn't have a lot of faith in his straight change, a trait common to pitchers with standout curves; it's more common to see a pitcher with a high-quality change use a slider for his breaking ball than a curve. Blyleven, for example, never really had a good change; he could change speeds on the bender, and that was enough.
There have been plenty of successful fastball-curve pitchers over the generations, but I don't know that many of them threw 40 percent curves. (I'd love to know what percentage of Blyleven's pitches were curve balls.) And there's my caveat on Duffey: He exhibited in 2015 a mix of pitches unique in today's game, and I'm not sure it's sustainable.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
All those college relievers
Seeing Tyler Jay in the No. 5 slot in Baseball America's Twins Top 10 prospect list reminds me, again, of the organization's recent tendency to draft college relief pitchers.
Jay, a left-handed pitcher, was the closer for Illinois last year before the Twins took him with the sixth overall pick in June. There was some speculation (including here) that he might be fast-tracked to the major for a September relief role, but he spluttered early in high A ball and that notion was pretty quickly abandoned.
The Twins expect to have him start this year, and that was the likely plan even if the fast-track notion had come to fruition.
I hesitate to list all the college relief pitchers the Twins have taken in the first 10 rounds the last few years, because there are so many of them I'm bound to forget some. Two of them are in the BA list, Jay and Nick Burdi. But there are also ... Mason Melotakis, J.T. Chargois, Luke Bard, Jake Reed, Michael Cederroth, Sam Clay, John Curtiss -- and Tyler Duffey.
Duffey, of course, popped into the Twins rotation in August and was their best starter down the stretch, but in college he shared closing duties with Chargois at Rice. When the Twins began their big splash into collegiate relievers with the intent to trying some of them as starters, I was a bit skeptical but noted that if they try five as starters and one makes it, the project was a success.
Five weeks does not a success make. But I'm optimistic about Duffey, with a caveat I'll expound upon tomorrow.
Jay, a left-handed pitcher, was the closer for Illinois last year before the Twins took him with the sixth overall pick in June. There was some speculation (including here) that he might be fast-tracked to the major for a September relief role, but he spluttered early in high A ball and that notion was pretty quickly abandoned.
The Twins expect to have him start this year, and that was the likely plan even if the fast-track notion had come to fruition.
I hesitate to list all the college relief pitchers the Twins have taken in the first 10 rounds the last few years, because there are so many of them I'm bound to forget some. Two of them are in the BA list, Jay and Nick Burdi. But there are also ... Mason Melotakis, J.T. Chargois, Luke Bard, Jake Reed, Michael Cederroth, Sam Clay, John Curtiss -- and Tyler Duffey.
Duffey, of course, popped into the Twins rotation in August and was their best starter down the stretch, but in college he shared closing duties with Chargois at Rice. When the Twins began their big splash into collegiate relievers with the intent to trying some of them as starters, I was a bit skeptical but noted that if they try five as starters and one makes it, the project was a success.
Five weeks does not a success make. But I'm optimistic about Duffey, with a caveat I'll expound upon tomorrow.
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