The search for five

The number from Monday's Blue Jays-Twins tilt that matters was five, and not just because the Jays scored five runs to win it. It's because the game from the Twins viewpoint was about the No. 5 starter and a fifth bullpen arm.

The starter

Martin Perez's line in his first start of 2019 was good. One run in six innings? Yeah, we'll take that. Two walks and five strikeouts is certainly acceptable. The velocity was good, and he even hit 97 in his final innings. He threw 86 pitches, less than one might wish for from a starter, but he's been trapped by the sporadic schedule for the first three weeks of the season in the bullpen with limited pitches.

On the bad side, there were a lot of hard-hit balls, not only among the seven hits but several of the outs. And the Jays helped him with a pair of base-running gaffes.

The reliever

Left-hander Aldaberto Mejia was handed a genuine test: A 3-1 eighth-inning lead to protect against a lineup heavy with right-handed hitters. He failed.

The thing is, he was ahead of all the hitters leading up to the Teoscar Hernandez three-run homer that put Toronto up for good. He couldn't put any of them away.

Mejia's background is as a starter, and as such he should have weapons to use against right-handers. He didn't get them out on Monday, at least not before giving up the lead. It was not an outing that encourages manager Rocco Baldelli to increase his role.

The Twins bullpen has four guys Baldelli trusts (Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers) and three he's tried to avoid using in winnable games (Ryne Harper, Andrew Vasquez and Mejia).

Four trustworthy relievers are not enough if the starters are going to go six innings max. And I've never believed that the Twins were going to avoid going to an eight-man bullpen for long.

Baldelli used his big four pretty heavily against the Tigers Saturday and Sunday. He was clearly trying Monday to stay away from them in the seventh and eighth innings. What he would have done with the ninth and a lead, I don't know.

Harper made his first appearance in almost a week Monday, and he sliced through the 8-9-1 hitters in the Toronto order with two strikeouts in the seventh. He certainly brings a different approach than the rest of the righties in the Minnesota bullpen, and he's easy to root for. But no manager is going to be eager to lean on a 30-year-old rookie without velocity. If Harper is going to get a role, he'll have to earn it with more outings like Monday's.

Of note: Gabriel Moya and Matt Magill, two mainstays of the 2018 bullpen, are starting rehab assignments. Moya's probably the crucial one, as the Twins could really use a second reliable lefty in relief and neither Mejia nor Vasquez have been that so far.

My guess is that Vasquez and a position player are gone when Moya and Magill are ready to be activated.

Trevor Hildenberger, fireman

The bullpen gave the Twins a bumpy ride this weekend, but the late leads were held and the Twins got their chilly two-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers.

Blake Parker, who appears to be Rocco Baldelli's preferred ninth-inning arm, had consecutive appearances in which he lacked command of his preferred out pitch. He got through the first one on Saturday, but was pulled with one out and the bases loaded Sunday. Trevor Hildenberger threw seven pitches for two strikeouts and had a nice line postgame to discribe it:

Trevor Hildenberger on inheriting today’s bases-loaded jam: "Small kitchen fire. Baking soda.”

Mitch Garver on Hildenberger: "He's nails.”#MNTwins

— Dan Hayes (@DanHayesMLB) April 14, 2019

Back in the day, before the term "closer" was invented, relief aces were known as "firemen." "Small kitchen fire. Baking soda," is evocative of that old bit of baseball lingo.

Hildenberger has now inherited 14 runners this young seasons. Only three have scored, all in that ugly meltdown inning against the Mets when Jake Odorizzi, Andrew Vasquez and Hildenberger couldn't throw strikes. 

For what it's worth, the Twins have five saves -- three for Parker, one for Taylor Rogers and now one for Hildenberger. Of Baldelli's four late-inning options (those three plus Trevor May), Parker is the one in whom I have the least faith. It may be that Parker just needs some warmer weather to rediscover his splitter. At any rate, the guys who got the Twins out of jams late were Rogers and Hildenberger. The roleless bullpen rolls on.

Notes, quotes and comment

The good news from Tuesday's Twins game: The Twins won in 10 innings.

The bad news: Byron Buxton -- hitting .308 -- bruised his back running into the centerfield wall on Aldaberto Mondesi's game-tying inside-the-park homer. He certainly won't be in the lineup this afternoon, and I won't be surprised if he misses at least part of the weekend series in Philadelphia.

Buck's gotta stop running into walls.

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Michael Reed, who spent most of spring training in Twins camp, was traded to the Giants on March 23 and opened the season not only on the Giants roster but in their starting lineup.

Unfortunately for Reed, he opened the season 0-for-8. The Giants traded Tuesday for centerfielder Kevin Pillar from Toronto and designated Reed for assignment.

Maybe if Reed had opened 5-for-8 he'd still have a job. Maybe.

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The Twins' first save opportunity of 2019 went to Taylor Rogers. The second, I guess, went to Rogers as well -- he's charged with a blown save for Mondesi's inside-the-parker -- but I don't know that Rocco Baldelli brought Rogers in with the intent of getting a six-out save from the lefty.

Anyway, the next save opp, be it the second or third, went to Blake Parker, who walked one and struck out one and kept his splitter out of the dirt this time.

The roleless bullpen rolls on.

Contemplating the bullpen

Two pronouncments Monday out of Fort Myers by manager Rocco Baldelli about the Minnesota bullpen:

• He is indeed not naming a closer, or designating specific roles for his relief crew. (This matches the thesis of the Monday print column.) 
• Non-roster invitee Ryne Harper will be on the opening day roster.

Harper, as you can see by clicking the above link, has a rather extensive minor-league resume, heavier on Double A innings than Triple A. While he has had a (very) brief major league callup, he never appeared in a game, so when he takes the mound it will be his major league debut. Expect lots of curve balls from him.

Contemporary bullpens are always a work in progress. This will be no exception. The Twins are to open the season with an 11-man pitching staff. The number will rise from there.

Three of last year's bullpen appear likely to be on the injured list by Thursday's opener (righties Matt Magill and Addison Reed and lefy Gabriel Moya), and it sounds as if the Twins expect Magill and Moya to be ready relatively soon. Presumably at least one of them will be ready when the Twins need to shift Martin Perez to the rotation.

Perez, the fifth starter, is going to begin the season in the bullpen because of a cluster of April off days. So this 11-man staff breaks down for now as:

Starters: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson (that's the announced order).

Late-inning relievers: Trevor Hildenberger, Trevor May, Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers

Not-so-late: Perez, Harper, Aldaberto Mejia

One thing to watch in these first couple of weeks is how Baldelli uses Perez. One major goal is going to be keeping the lefty stretched out so that when he's inserted into the starting rotation he's ready to give them at least five to six innings. I suspect that's part of why Gibson's going last, so that Perez can "piggy back" with either Odorizzi (who seldom pitches deep into games) or Pineda (who will probably be handled with some care early on in his second year back from Tommy John surgery).

Contemplating the bullpen

The Twins made their first camp cuts at the start of the weekend. Sent down the road to the minor league complex were a collection of prospects -- some on the 40, some not -- who came to camp with little realistic chance of making the opening roster unless a wave of injuries hit.

We are less than three weeks from opening day, and it's time for big league camp to focus at-bats and innings on the guys who will be going north. And its time for this corner to go through out annual exercise of projecting bullpen roles.

Which, this spring, is well-neigh impossible. There is no established closer in camp. There is a manager who has never managed at any level before and a pitching coach who has not been in professional baseball before, so we can't look at what they've done in the past. And pitcher usage patterns in exhibition games are meaningless.

There have been suggestions that Rocco Baldelli and Wes Johnson won't base the bullpen on set roles, meaning no specific closer, no specific eighth-inning guy.

But they must have some sort for framework in mind. Let's try to work one out on our own.

Roster locks

Taylor Rogers. He might be emerging as one of the better lefty relievers in the game.
Blake Parker. A couple good years with the Angels, and if the Twins do go with a set closer a genuine candidate for the job.
Trevor May. My choice for closer if the role exists. Out of options.

Depending on health

Addison Reed. If he's healthy, he's a lock. But he wasn't sound last season and it's unclear if he can go two days in a row, and that's pretty much a necessity for bullpen arms. One year and more than $8 million left on his contract.
Gabriel Moya.  Lefty has been limited in camp. Probably the preferred second lefty.

More than likely

Trevor Hildenberger. Had a rough end to an up-and-down season. He and the Twins seem to think the issues are solvable.
Aldaberto Mejia. Lefty, out of options. As a starter has struggled to go five innings, and there is no obvious opening in the rotation anyway.

Is there room?

Matt Magill. Spent most of 2018 with the big club, appearing in 40 games and working 56 innings. The big drawback: 11 homers allowed. Not sure of his option status.
Tyler Duffey. Less time in the majors than I expected last year, and a horrid 7.20 ERA when he was up. His stock has certainly diminished.
Fernando Romero. Eleven games in the bigs in 2018, all starts. Supposedly a reliever now. He may not open 2019 with the Twins, but he'll be there at some point, and may well wind up with a major role.

Already down

Andrew Vasquez. Shipped out with the first wave of camp cuts. Lefty whose early departure suggests the decision makers are satisfied with Mejia and Moya behind Rogers.

So ... I make the top three the most likely late-inning choices, although if Hildenberger and Romero are capable of wedging their way in. Reed, with the biggest paycheck of the group, is a big question mark. I wonder how likely the Twins are to eat his salary if he's limited early on.

Trevor Hildenberger, committee chairman

Trevor Hildenberger pitched Thursday night. It wasn't a brilliant outing -- he served up another homer -- but he got the final three outs. It was an "easy" save, in the parlance of Baseball Info Systems, which tracks the difficulty of save opportunties.

Sine the Fernando Rodney trade as announced Aug. 9, Hildenberger has appeared in five games.  He has four saves and a win and was the final pitcher each time. The only save opportunity granted to anybody else came immediately after people started to suggest that Hildenberger was the new closer, as if to prove that no he isn't.

Paul Molitor says it's a committee to close. He may even believe that. But if it's a committee, Hildenberger is clearly the chairman. Molitor handled his bullpen, which had to get 13 of the 27 outs, as he would have to get to his closer -- four outs from one guy, three from the next, divvy up the eighth between a lefty and a righty, and now it's the ninth and time for the star to enter.

Contemplating Addison Reed

The Twins put Addison Reed on the disabled list (triceps) Wednesday and recalled Alan Busenitz from Triple A. This is at least the third call-up for Busenitz this year, maybe four. None have been for very long.

This is apparently Reed's first time on the DL, which is rather impressive for a hard-used reliever in this era. It probably ensures that he won't be traded this month, not that his pitching of late was making any contenders salivate at the thought of adding him.

Reed was supplanted weeks ago in the bullpen heirarchy as the primary set-up man by Trevor Hildenberger, which seemed plausible even after Reed's signing. Hildenberger had a rough spring training, I think in part because he was working on a breaking ball, and there was no question coming into the season that Paul Molitor trusted Reed more.

But that's changed. Reed's now allowed eight homers in 41 innings, and several of those long balls led directly to losses.

To a degree, heirarchy matters less than depth. Good teams need deep bullpens, the deeper the better. Whether as the primary eight-inning guy or a seven-inning guy or a strand-these-runners specialist, Reed was supposed to deepen the Twins 'pen. By the time he conceded that there was a problem affecting his pitching, he was unusable in game situations.  Now it's Busenitz's turn, at least for a while.

The bullpen takes shape

The signings of veteran relievers Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke have given some shape to a restructured Twins bullpen for 2018.

The back end of the relief corps seems fairly set:

Closer: Rodney
Setup 1: Trevor Hildenberger
Setup 2: Taylor Rogers
LOOGY 1: Zach Duke

Duke and Rogers might swap roles. I seem to be considerably cooler to the Duke signing than most internet commentators, certainly cooler than the actual decision makers.

That's only about half of a modern bullpen. The 2017 Twins carried eight relievers for much of the season, and unless and until they shore up the starting rotation, I will assume the 2018 Twins will do the same. So four more arms.

The four givens listed above aren't, with the possible exception of the aging Rodney, a collection of power arms. So we can expect that at least one spot will go to a high-velocity arm, and the Twins aren't short of internal candidates for that: Ryan Pressly, J.T. Chagrois, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss.

My take on that group is: Pressly is the highest floor and lowest ceiling. Chagrois has the highest ceiling but a history of injury. Busenitz didn't pitch as well as his ERA would indicate in 2017. Curtiss, who had a cup of coffee last year, is the only one of the group without some level of major league success. My guess is Pressly is first in line, which would fit with the risk-avoidance approach the front office has taken with the Rodney and Duke signings.

I would also expect Tyler Duffey to return to the multi-inning role, pitching two or three innings at a time two or three times a week He seemed to thrive in that role for a couple of months in 2017; his performance deteriorated when he was deployed in shorter and more frequent outings.

Then there are the rehab projects, Trevor May and Phil Hughes, to consider. May had Tommy John surgery last spring, Hughes a second round of thoracic outlet syndrome. Both are nominally starters, but we don't know as the calendar turns over how ready either will be for 100 pitches every five days.

The Twins rotation is rather unsettled as of now, with Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson as givens, Aldaberto Mejia the likely fourth starter and question marks behind him. I doubt the Twins want to go into spring training counting on one of Hughes or May for the fifth starter role -- again, they've prioritized risk avoidance. While they haven't moved yet on the rotation, I still expect them to add at least one starter, and I think they want two.

But they don't have a lot of roster flexibility with either May or Hughes. Each is either on the disabled list or on the major league staff; they can't be optioned out. So the more starters the Twins add, the more likely May/Hughes are to land in the bullpen, which makes a certain amount of sense in the rehab process.

Which would give us a bullpen like this:

Closer: Rodney
Setup 1: Hildenberger
Setup 2: Rogers
LOOGY: Duke
MR 1: Pressly
MR 2: Duffey
Utility: May
Long: Hughes

In search of closer No.5

Paul Molitor, in his three seasons managing the Twins, has never had a stable back-of-the-bullpen plan.

He inherited Glen Perkins, an All-Star, as his closer. Perkins was better than ever for the first half of 2015, then got hurt and kept pitching. His season deteriorated, and by season's end Kevin Jepsen had supplanted him in the ninth inning.

Perkins tried again the next year, but one regular season outing was enough to convince everyone that the offseason's rest hadn't solved things. Jepsen, who had been reliable in 2015, wasn't in 2016, and by midseason Brandon Kintzler had taken over the ninth.

Kintzler held the job for more than a calendar year. He proved effective in the role -- effective enough to get a replacement appointment to the All-Star team in 2017 -- until the Twins traded him to Washington for a prospect and international spending space.

At which point Matt Belisle emerged as the quasi closer. Molitor didn't go "full Eckersley" with Belisle -- there were a few long saves by people like Tyler Duffey and Dillon Gee and Gabriel Moya -- but for three outs, Belisle was Molitor's preferred choice in August and September.

What all four have in common: They were veterans. They'd been around a while. There's not much else they have in common.

Jepsen threw hard, with uncertain command; Kinztler has a mediocre strikeout rate but good command and movement; Belisle's 2017 K rate was stronger than Kintzler's, but his ability to work consecutive days was, and remains, questionable.

What I take from this: Molitor prefers a known quantity for the end of games. Not necessarily a "proven closer" -- indeed, none of the successors to Perkins had ever held the glory job even as a fill-in before the Twins --  but somebody who's been through plenty of ups and downs, failures and successes.

And now, while Belisle (and Kintzler) free agents, the job is vacant once again.

The Twins during the second term of Terry Ryan spent a number of high draft picks on relief prospects. As a result they have a number of young, high-upside relief arms in their system. I've been listing them and waiting on them for years. And it's time for some of them to break through.

Indeed, the exposure of Jake Reed and Nick Burdi to the Rule 5 draft this week, the waiving of Randy Rosario (lost to the Cubs) and the sale of Michael Tonkin to a Japanese team all suggest the new front office is at a "prove it" point with a number of them.

Even without those four, the Twins still have Tyler Jay, J.T Chargois and Luke Bard (among others) in their minors, while Trevor Hildenberger, Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss and Moya all finished 2017 with the big club with varying levels of success.

From the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino at the winter meetings:

“I think somebody on our current roster will garner a save (in 2018),” Twins general manager Thad Levine said jokingly on Monday at the winter meetings. “I think we’re open-minded we may have our closer of the future on our current roster. Do we want to thrust that person into that role come Opening Day? Ideally not.”

Which suggests that the Twins are looking for a veteran to fill the job to open the season -- with an eye to moving him out of the role as Molitor grows more comfortable with using one of the kids.

Such a high-floor, low ceiling approach generally irritates me, but I understand it. The 2018 Twins should view themselves as a playoff contender, and as such don't want to give away games because an inexperienced pitcher panicked late. And as a team entering a window of contention, they don't want to shipwreck a promising relief prospect emotionally. Let them grow into the job.

At the same time, they have enough young arms who could be the next star reliever that there's no good reason to overspend on the likes of free agents Wade Davis or Greg Holland.

From the Handbook: Relief pitcher use

One of favorite segements of the annual Bill James Handbook in recent years has been the relief pitching breakdown, detailing how different relievers were used.

One of the running themes in the blog last season was Paul Molitor's handling of his always thin bullpen. He never seemed to have more than three guys he trusted -- and the identities of those three changed frequently.

The Handbook breaks down the usage of 12 Twins relievers -- the 12 with at least 10 relief appearances.

A few items:

The Twins reliever who inherited the most runners was Ryan Pressley, 38 -- one more than Tyler Duffey. Eleven of Pressley's inherited runners scored (29 percent). But 17 of Duffey's scored (46 percent, worst of the 12 listed). The best strand rate: Michael Tonkin, who has been sold to the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan (10 inherited runners, one scored).

The reliever with the highest leverage index -- a measurement of the cruciality of the at-bats -- was Brandon Kintzler, the closer who was traded at the end of July and is now a free agent. His leverage index was 1.7. For context, 16 of the 30 major league teams had at least one qualified reliever with a higher leverage index.

Kinztler didn't get a lot of chances to pick up saves with Washington; Dusty Baker generally gave the ninth inning to fellow mid-season pickup Sean Doolittle. Kintzler's leverage index with the Nats was 1.8.

No real surprise here: The Twins reliever with the most consecutive days pitching was Taylor Rogers, 19. What is a surprise, to me at least: the next highest was Matt Belisle  with 13. I'll wager that the majority of them came after he ascended to the glory job after Kintzler was traded.

And the Twins reliever with the most "long" outings --  more than one inning -- was Duffey with 18, more than twice that of any other Twins.

Notes, quotes and comment

Inclined as I am to be a glass-half-empty guy, I look at the Twins' just completed road trip and see a bit of a missed opportunity. Eight games against two of the worst teams in the league, and "just" a 4-4 record.

On the other hand, the Twins now have a 1.5 game lead for the second wildcard spot, the rest of their schedule remains rather soft, and the daily playoff odds issued by Baseball Prospectus still gives them the best shot of the contenders to get into the crapshoot game for the AL.

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Quite the series in Toronto for Bryon Buxton, with two bunt singles in one game and three homers in another.

There's an internet mantra: "Never bunt, hit dingers." I'll take 'em both.

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Bullpen usage notes: Late last week I catagorized the just-arrived John Curtiss as a bullpen arm Paul Molitor did not trust in a key situation.

On Saturday Molitor brought him in for the bottom of the eighth with a one-run deficit. It didn't work out well -- two walks and two runs allowed. But I was struck by how quickly Molitor turned to him in a game that wasn't decided.

Meanwhile, Trevor Hildenberger has now pitched five times in six days, but he hasn't been asked to face a lot of hitters in those games (12 hitters total). It's still probably good the Twins don't play today so Molitor isn't tempted to bring him in again.

I noted at the time of the Brandon Kintzler trade that Molitor had avoided using Hildenberger with a narrow lead. Hildenberger has since picked up five holds and a save, so yeah, that's changed.

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I examined the Twins' ever-shifting lineup for the Monday print column, in which I said Paul Molitor had used 111 different batting orders in the first 123 games.

It's now 113 in 125 games.

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I've said repeatedly this year that the Twins have the youngest lineup in the AL as Baseball Reference figures that. This is no longer true; the Chicago White Sox, who cleared out most of their veterans last month, have now overtaken the Twins; their average hitter is 27.1 years old, and the Twins are at 27.2.

Third youngest: the Boston Red Sox at 27.4. The Bosox aren't just good; they're young and good.

Revamping the bullpen

John Curtiss, the 35th pitcher used by the Minnesota Twins
this season, embraces catcher Chris Gimenez after finishing
Friday's win at Toronto

It's been more than a week since I wrote about the Twins here, and I doubt that I could accurately recount the roster maneuvers employed by the front office in that time as the Twins navigated a pair of doubleheaders.

One of them, however, was the addition of John Curtiss to the bullpen.

Curtiss is certainly intriguing. I've written repeatedly about the waves of college relievers the Twins drafted during Terry Ryan's second reign as general manager. We're starting, at what seems like long last, to see some results for those picks -- not from Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay or Mason Melotakis, but from Tyler Duffey, Trevor Hildenberger and now Curtiss.

Curtiss' 2017 minor league stats are revealing. An ERA over two levels of 1.28. No homers allowed at all -- this year or last. More than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. 

And four walks per nine innings, which is more than the Twins are wont to tolerate. But he's been essentially unhittable the past two seasons, and his WHIP -- walks and hits per inning pitched -- is well under 1, which is very good indeed.

Curtiss is a power arm. As is Alan Busenitz, who is earning an increasingly prominent role in Paul Molitor's revamped bullpen. As is Ryan Pressly, whose inconsistency has earned him an increasingly less prominent role.

We can split the bullpen into two parts: Those Molitor trusts in key situations and those he doesn't.

Group One: Hildenberger, Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Matt Belisle, Busenitz

Group Two: Curtiss, Pressly, Glen Perkins

The status can change. The names certainly have. Only three of those eight have been on the roster all season.

The post-Kintzler bullpen

Alan Busenitz got the call for the eighth inning Tuesday night and got dinged for a two-run homer that expanded a 1-0 deficit to 3-0.

At least it wasn't one of the usual suspects.

I quit playing fantasy baseball years ago, so I'm not overly wrapped up in saves and the identity of the closer. I'm less concerned about who gets the ninth inning with a three-run lead than with who gets the ball late and close. For the first four months of the Twins season, that's been Brandon Kintzler and Taylor Rogers, with others sprinkled in on a only-as-needed basis.

But Kintzler was traded Monday and Rogers has been charged with at least one run in each of his last five outings, with his ERA expanding from 1.93 after July 22 to 3.79 entering play today. And as I said in the previous post, I don't know now how the Twins will get their outs when the game is late and close.

It's quite possible that Rogers will inherit Kintzler's ninth-inning duties despite his current struggles. If he does, it opens the eight-inning chores, since Paul Molitor is unlikely to try to have Rogers set up and close.

Molitor at one point referred to Tyler Duffey, Rogers and Kintzler as his "triumph trio," the idea being that a parade of those three from the middle innings on was the route to victory.

Duffey has entered three games in the eighth inning, none in the ninth and twice in extra innings, and he's averaging more than an inning per appearance. He's gotten four or more outs in 18 of his 39 appearances. He has been used on consecutive days only twice. All of which describes an old-school middle reliever, and I think the role suits him.

Busenitz and Ryan Pressly have the stereotypical power arms of late-inning relievers. But Pressly has not been effective this year (seven homers in 33.2 innings and an ERA of 6.68) despite an impressive strikeout rate (40 Ks). Busenitz has allowed now three homers in 10.2 major league innings, an even worse home run rate.

Matt Belisle hasn't been charged with a run, earned or unearned, since June. But he has fared poorly when called upon to pitch in back-to-back games, which is pretty much part of the job description for closers and primary set-up men. And he's 37 and a free agent at year's end; giving him a late-inning role doesn't compute for an organization that has signaled that it's looking to future seasons more than the current one.

Of the pitchers in the current bullpen, the one I'd most like to see moved to a late-inning role (closer or primary set-up) is Trevor Hildenberger, the rookie sidearming righty. So far Molitor has largely avoided him in close games; half of his 12 appearances have come with the Twins either trailing by more than four runs or leading by more than four runs, and Molitor has yet not used him to protect a lead of four runs or fewer.

I hope that's about to change.

Contemplating Buddy Boshers

Pretty good weekend for the Twins in Cleveland. They swept the defending AL champs and returned, narrowly, to first place in the Central Division.

And give a lot of the credit to the oft-criticized and oft-battered bullpen. The Twins allowed just two runs in the three games despite getting just 15.2 innings from the starters. The bullpen worked four innings in Friday's shutout (Tyler Duffey two, Taylor Rogers one, Brandon Kintzler one); 4.1 in Saturday's win (Duffey 1.1, Matt Belisle 0.2, Rogers 1.1, Trevor Hildenberger one) and three Sunday (Buddy Boshers two, Kintlzer one).

Broken down like that, we see the usual pattern in use. Paul Molitor used each of his three most-trusted bullpen arms (Duffey, Rogers, Kintlzer) twice. He even used Duffey in back-to-back games, which is not part of the usual pattern. Molitor tried again to get crucial outs from the veteran Belisle, and Belisle gave up the one run the bullpen yielded all series.

Having gotten 10 outs from Duffey (and seven from Rogers) in the first two games of the series, Molitor pretty much had to find somebody else Sunday for the bridge role. That somebody was Buddy Boshers.

And that went quite well. Two innings, no hits, one base runner (a disputed HBP), one strikeout.

It was Boshers' 11th outing for the Twins this year, and his first in a game they ultimately won. (He does have one hold, which came in a game in which Belisle and Craig Breslow combined for a nine-run meltdown after Boshers threw a scoreless inning.) Sunday wasn't a hold, because the Twins had a four-run lead when he entered, but Boshers definitely got the job done. His ERA is down to 2.50.

The Greg McMichael Rule comes into play: Get outs and they'll find a role for you. (Greg McMichael was a pitcher with the Atlanta Braves during the height of the Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz era who was a minor league free agent in spring training and the closer by the second half of the season.) Boshers has gotten outs, and a bigger role is clearly available.

But ...

The pitching staff's revolving door is about to spin some more, with Hector Santiago coming off the DL for Tuesday's start in Boston and perhaps the return of Phil Hughes. The Twins had nine guys in the bullpen in Cleveland, and three of them (Breslow, Adam Busenitz and Dillon Gee) didn't pitch. I would expect Gee to be "piggy backed" with Santiago on Tuesday; I certainly don't expect the Twins to try to demote him before pitching him.

Belisle and Breslow can't be optioned out; clearing them off the major league roster means waiving them. So the bullpen options for clearing roster space for Santiago and/or Hughes would seem to be Busenitz, Hildenberger or Boshers. We'll toss starter Aldaberto Mejia into that mix as well, even though he has the third best ERA of the nine men who've started.

It's a bit of a puzzle. The Twins signed Belisle and Breslow with an eye to leavening the inexpeience on this pitching staff. They haven't been very good, but they are difficult to move. I don't think the Twins will option out Boshers to make room for Santiago or Hughes, but it's hardly impossible. One good outing doesn't make his job safe.

You gotta know when to hold 'em

The hold is an unofficial stat designed more than 20 years ago by STATS Inc. to be for set-up men what the save is for closers. (I believe part of the motivation was a now-defunct fantasy game STATS offered at the time.)

The hold shares many of the same flaws as the save, but has one significant difference: managers don't run their bullpens to maximize holds the way they do saves. But like the save, the hold is completely subject to managerial discretion. I look at the figure less as to evaluate the pitcher and more to evaluate the manager. Which pitchers in his bullpen (other than the closer) does the skipper entrust with leads?

This is particularly of interest with the 2017 Twins, because Paul Molitor came into the season talking about not having standardized roles in his bullpen. In truth, Brandon Kintzler is closing. But there does seem to be a good bit of flux between the starters and Kintzler.

Here's everybody (other than Chris Gimenez) to have pitched in relief for the 2017 Twins and their holds:

Taylor Rogers, 13 (and 1 "blown save", or lost lead)
Matt Belisle, 9 (1 lost lead)
Tyler Duffey, 4 (0 lost leads)
Ryan Pressly, 4 (0 lost leads)
Craig Breslow, 0 (one lost lead)
Kintzler, 0 (15 saves, 2 lost leads)
Justin Haley, 0 (1 save, 0 lost leads)
Michael Tonkin, 0 (0 lost leads)
Buddy Boshers, 0 (0 lost leads)
Adam Wilk, 0 (0 lost leads)
Randy Rosario, 0 (0 lost leads)
Alex Wimmers, 0 (0 lost leads)
Drew Rucinski, 0 (0 lost leads)
Jason Wheeler, 0 (0 lost leads)

Kinda striking, isn't it? Haley's save was the almost obsolete three-inning type in a blowout and Breslow's blown save came during that disasterous series against the Astros when the bullpen disintegrated,  In reality, for all the shuffling of bodies in the Twins bullpen, Molitor has used only five guys to protect leads, and one of them has been demoted.

That Matt Belisle is, by this measure, one of Molitor's more trusted late relievers is ... startling.

Can't get no relief

It's not truly accurate to blame Monday's bullpen disaster on Sunday's 15-inning marathon.

Imagine for a moment that Brandon Kintzler hadn't coughed up the lead Sunday and the Twins had won in nine innings. On Monday Paul Molitor would still have had the same problem: His three most trusted relief arms -- Kintzler, Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey --  had been worked hard. Duffey threw two innings Saturday and really shouldn't have been used Sunday but was, and Rogers and Kintzler each pitched Saturday and Sunday.

The Twins brought up two fresh arms in Drew Rucinski and Jason Wheeler, but Molitor didn't trust either with a six-run lead and six outs to go. That might have been his undoing,

He used Ryan Pressly, Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle, each having worked on Sunday after Kintzler blew the lead, and they each failed. .And yeah, the outfield defense, weakened by the injury to Bryon Buxton, didn't help, but still ...

Molitor's choice underlines the lack of bullpen depth. Rogers and Kintzler aren't the prototype late-inning arms, but they've been pretty effective. The problem is, two late inning arms and one multi-inning middle man -- which is what Duffey has been -- worked for Earl Weaver some 30 years ago, but it's not enough in the modern bullpen.

The Twins have aggressively shuffled their bullpen, and that continued after Sunday's game, with Rucinski returned to Rochester and Buddy Boshers recalled. But it continues to be a parade of low-impact arms. The power arms that might made a difference are awaiting surgery (Nick Burdi), recouping from injury (J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay, Jake Reed) or simply deemed not ready for the majors (Mason Melotakis and John Curtiss). The roster moves are just swapping out one minor-league free agent for another.

I know this: The relief pitchers we saw Monday aren't the answer.

Notes, quotes and comment

The more I see and know of Hector Santiago, the more intriguing I find him.

He took the loss Tuesday, but pitched well (6+ innings, two earned runs). Paul Molitor pulled him after Jorge Polanco booted a grounder to start the seventh inning, but he'd only thrown 84 pitches. (The Twins may believe he still needs to stretch out after his WBC bullpen work for Puerto Rico, or they may figure that as long as they're carrying 13 pitchers they might as well use some of them.)

So he's two-for-two in quality starts.

What's unusual about him is the breadth of his repertoire. He told Bert Blyleven in a radio segment aired before Tuesday game that he's up to six pitches (four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, change, slider, screwball, cutter) -- and working on a sidearm delivery that would add four more to the arsenal if and when he breaks it out in a game.

That approach used to be common among big league pitchers, but that was about 70 years ago. Today's pitching theory is more focused on a executing a tighter selection of pitches consistently.

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A few Twins-related Q&A from a Keith Law (ESPN) chat from last week:

Brett : How many of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario and Polanco will become above average everyday regulars?
Keith Law: Yes, yes, yes, no, maybe. 

Kevin: If you're the Twins, how do you pass on Hunter Greene? 102 at 17 y/o? Lord. They need pitching, but he gives you two potential players in one to bank on. Also, Falvey known for developing pitchers in CLE ? great match. Kid seems like he "gets it" too.
Keith Law: I think you take him, you send him out this summer as a shortstop, with the plan to pitch him in 2018. Maybe he does something either way as a hitter in the GCL to change your mind or reinforce it.

Jim: Travis Blankenhorn look like the future 3B of the Twins?
Keith Law: You know, I saw him last week in Fort Myers, and 1) oh my god is he huge and 2) he actually wasn’t that bad at third for a guy his size. Maybe he’s a 2b instead, but he can scorch the ball.

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Thirteen pitchers on the Twins roster mean just three reserves for any given game, and Paul Molitor felt a bit constricted as he tried to work an extra run out of their ninth inning rally.

Molitor on late innings: "We were looking at different scenarios on how you best use our minimal bench."

13-man staff could end soon.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) April 11, 2017

OK. To be sure, Molitor hasn't had to go to the 'pen nearly as often as they were expecting. Michael Tonkin made just his second appearance Tuesday. Craig Breslow has pitched once.

The question becomes: Who goes? Justin Haley is a Rule 5 guy; he either stays or is lost. Tonkin is out of options; he wasn't particularly high on my list of candidates, but he might be the best "stuff" pitcher in the 'pen. Breslow is long out of options. Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey are optionable, but Molitor is using them in game situations. Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle -- they aren't going anywhere.

My guess: If they make a move to add a hitter, it will be at Tonkin's expense.

My further guess: If they do cut back to 12 pitchers, that's when they'll get a string of short starts.

A rough draft of a bullpen

We're a bit more than two weeks away from opening day. Let's try a rough draft of the opening bullpen:

Closer: Brandon Kintzler
Setup 1: Ryan Pressly
Setup 2: J.T Chargois
MR 1: Matt Belisle
LOOGY 1/MR 2: Craig Breslow
LOOGY2: Buddy Boshers
Long/mopup: Justin Haley

My long distance sense is:

1) Glen Perkins hasn't faced hitters yet and isn't close to being ready.

2) The absolute locks to be on the roster are Kintzler, Pressly and Belisle,

3) Breslow, who is not on the 40-man roster, entered camp with management wanting him to make the team. He's been effective with his new delivery, and I think he'll stick.

4) Haley got a start this week and may get another before the WBC contingent returns next week, but I doubt the Twins are bold enough to give a rotation berth to a Rule 5 pick. I assume they want to keep him, however,

5) Chargois has options, and that might work against him. He also has the biggest arm of the genuine bullpen candidates. If he gets shipped out to avoid putting somebody like Michael Tonkin on waivers, the Twins are making a mistake.

6) I count three genuine candidates for that second LOOGY spot: Boshers, Taylor Rodgers and Ryan O'Rourke. There's probably not a dime's worth of difference among them. I have no specific reason to pick Boshers for this guess, and no reason to pick against any of them.

A bullpen overview

The Twins caravan swung through Mankato on Monday night. Theoretically I could have gone -- Monday is one of my nights off -- but it wasn't really on my radar screen to begin with, and when I tried to walk the dog around 5 p.m. and found the driveway and sidewalk ice-coated from the drizzle, all notion of leaving the house was abandoned.

But about 300 people did show up, including the Free Press' free-lancer Denny Weller, who produced this report.

The players on this leg of the annual promotional journey were relievers Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly, who emerged during the sorry 2016 season as the bullpen arms Paul Molitor most trusted -- which is not to say that they were truly good. Each was, as it turned out, arbitration eligible this year, and each got a nice raise for their veteranness.

We don't know when or to what level Glen Perkins will return from his shoulder surgery. I'm a Perkins fan. as evidenced by my repeated sponsorship of his Baseball Reference page, but I'm not optimistic about his future. Shoulder surgeries are inherently career-threatening, and on the range of outcomes, a return as the 97-mph flamethrower he once was is probably the least likely.

If Perkins is back, that's great and wonderful. But the Twins should wait to see it before they count on him.

And what does a non-Perkins bullpen look like? Presuming Trevor May is in the rotation, this would be a likely outline of six pitchers and roles, at least to open:

Closer: Kintzler
Setup 1: Pressly
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Taylor Rogers
MR 1: J.T. Chargois
LOOGY 2: Ryan O'Rourke
Long man: Michael Tonkin

I'm not impressed, and you shouldn't be either.

To be sure, there are plenty of contenders for the last four roles, and I doubt that these precise six will all go north for the opener. I hope there will be a genuine long man, not Tonkin's masquarade. But Kintzler and Pressly, with their squatter's rights, will go to Fort Myers penciled into the top two slots. (It's also quite possible tha the Twins will open with a 12-man staff, not the 11 this implies, but they aren't winning or losing games on their 12th pitcher, or shouldn't be.)

Notes, quotes and comment

Well, it didn't take long to find out who the new long man in the Twins bullpen is. Tyler Duffey didn't get out of the third inning in Fenway (the Red Sox can do that to a pitcher), and Michael Tonkin was the first man out. He got as many outs as Duffey did (seven) and yielded five fewer runs.

Trevor May got two innings in, and didn't fare all that well (three hits, four runs). I keep talking about switching him back to the rotation, but right now I suspect there's still something physically wrong with him.

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I highly recommend this piece from David Ortiz about his early days with the Twins today on the Players Tribune site. I almost hate to link to it because I'm sure I'm going to steal some of these stories for the Sunday Funnies this offseason, and why spoil the jokes now?

Well, because Ortiz has a serious point to make early on about Latin players and the cultural-language gap.

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Advance warning for those of you who visit this site daily expecting to see something new. Not happening Saturday. If the Twins make a trade Friday (or Saturday) I'll comment on it here Monday. I already have the Monday print column written (on the firing of Terry Ryan) and a Pic of the Week lined up to post Sunday morning, but I'm traveling this weekend and have decided to forgo packing the laptop.

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right?