A number of ex-Twins signed minor league deals in recent days.
* Logan Forsythe is now in camp with the Texas Rangers.
Off what we saw during his 50 games with the Twins last year after they got him in the Brian Dozier trade, it might seem surprising that he had to settle for a minor league deal -- he was solid defensively, with a noticably better arm than Dozier, and had a .356 OBP, which would look mightly good on this squad.
But he had little power -- six extra base hits in those 178 at-bats with the Twins, all doubles -- and hasn't really hit for two seasons. Plus he's 32. So, yeah, he's not somebody you sign with the intent of sticking him in the lineup.
* Trevor Plouffe re-upped with the Phillies.
The former first-rounder, also 32, got 12 at-bats last summer for the Phils and spent most of the season in Triple A. I don't know that the Phillies are thilled with Maikel Franco at third base, but I also know that Plouffe isn't a superior alternative.
I'll give Plouffe credit for perserverance, though. The man has made, per Baseball Reference, more than $22 million in his major league career. Presumably he doesn't have to take life in the minors for the income.
* Francisco Liriano returned to the Pirates on a minor league deal.
Pittsburgh is where "Frankie Franchise" turned himself around about six years ago. In 2013-2015 he racked up a 3.26 ERA in 510 innings. Not a workhorse, top-of-the-rotation guy, but a really good rotation piece. But things went sour for him in 2016 and the Pirates unloaded his contract on the Blue Jays, and he's been bouncing around since.
If he has a major league future, it's probably as a reliever. The Tigers had him in their rotation last year, and there wasn't a lot to like in his numbers. And he's 35 now, which seems kind of impossible.
A minor-league deal seems right for him at this point. The head-scratcher is his tale of not getting any offers at all -- and then seven, all pretty much identical, arrived on the same day.
It's not collusion if 30 teams have 30 different formulas that all conclude that 2+2=4. It is odd that everybody would run the numbers on Liriano on the same day.
Showing posts with label Trevor Plouffe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor Plouffe. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Trevor Plouffe and the New Reality
#OldFriend Trevor Plouffe this week signed a minor league deal with major league invite with the Texas Rangers. This figures to be some tough sledding for him, since the Rangers have Adrian Beltre at third and powerful Joey Gallo splitting time at third and first. If they're healthy, that doesn't leave a lot of at-bats at Plouffe's positions.
One of the oft-heard complaints in this winter of free agent discontent is that the chill has been felt on all levels. Players who expected superstar offers haven't drawn what they wanted; players who expected major league deals are getting minor league offers; players seeking minor league deals are getting frozen completely.
Or so the agents say, and maybe they're right.
My inclination is to view this as the market correction I've been expecting for years. At the top of the market, it's never made any sense to me that 32-year-old free agents got six- and seven-year contracts. J.D. Martinez is just in the unfortunate position of being the first one to find that pretty much every front office now recognizes the fallacy.
Well down the pyramid in Plouffe's specific case: The man is in his 30s, he was miscast as a foundation piece as a regular with Minnesota, and he hit .198/.272/.318 last season with two teams. There are no arrows pointing up with him.
Plouffe's career is being squeezed by multiple forces.
As a regular, he's being squeezed by his declining production and the embrace of analytics. Five years ago there were still a few GMs -- including the one in Minnesota -- who at least said a player's peak is in his early 30s. That's not the case now. Today's front offices are stuffed with people who've read the studies -- or conducted their own -- and know 31 is about four years past peak.
His OPS is under .600? We can get that from so-and-so out of Double A, and pay less in the process.
As a bit player, Plouffe is being squeezed by roster trends. The "deep depth" managers of the 1960s and '70s could probably not only carve out 250 at-bats for him but focus them on the pitchers he can do damage against. That's simply not happening in today's game, with half the roster spots going to pitchers.
One of the oft-heard complaints in this winter of free agent discontent is that the chill has been felt on all levels. Players who expected superstar offers haven't drawn what they wanted; players who expected major league deals are getting minor league offers; players seeking minor league deals are getting frozen completely.
Or so the agents say, and maybe they're right.
My inclination is to view this as the market correction I've been expecting for years. At the top of the market, it's never made any sense to me that 32-year-old free agents got six- and seven-year contracts. J.D. Martinez is just in the unfortunate position of being the first one to find that pretty much every front office now recognizes the fallacy.
Well down the pyramid in Plouffe's specific case: The man is in his 30s, he was miscast as a foundation piece as a regular with Minnesota, and he hit .198/.272/.318 last season with two teams. There are no arrows pointing up with him.
Plouffe's career is being squeezed by multiple forces.
As a regular, he's being squeezed by his declining production and the embrace of analytics. Five years ago there were still a few GMs -- including the one in Minnesota -- who at least said a player's peak is in his early 30s. That's not the case now. Today's front offices are stuffed with people who've read the studies -- or conducted their own -- and know 31 is about four years past peak.
His OPS is under .600? We can get that from so-and-so out of Double A, and pay less in the process.
As a bit player, Plouffe is being squeezed by roster trends. The "deep depth" managers of the 1960s and '70s could probably not only carve out 250 at-bats for him but focus them on the pitchers he can do damage against. That's simply not happening in today's game, with half the roster spots going to pitchers.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
Pic of the Week
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| Trevor Plouffe celebrates a homer on Wednesday. |
I had post a bit more than a week ago about former Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe being designated for assignment by Oakland. He was quickly traded to Tampa Bay, and on Wednesday hit his first homer as a Ray.
My wife, when I told her about Plouffe joining the Rays, said something about how I would still get to make puns off his name. I replied: Yes, his career hasn't gone plouffe.
Friday, June 16, 2017
Ex-Twin watch: Trevor Plouffe
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| Trevor Plouffe has not fared well at the plate for Oakland, and the last-place Athletics are going to play prize prospect Matt Chapman at third. |
Happy Birthday, Trevor. By the way, you're fired.
Plouffe signed a one-year deal worth $5.25 million with Oakland fairly late in the winter after he was cut loose by the Twins early in the offseason. He hit a dismal .214/.276/.357 with Oakland, and the A's decided to call up a prospect and cut bait with the veteran.
I would expect that Plouffe will clear waivers and accept free agency, whereupon he'll probably sign pretty quickly with somebody (Boston has been mentioned) in need of a third baseman. He'll come cheap -- pro-rated major league minimum, with the A's paying the rest of his contract.
But he hasn't hit for a couple of years, and his defense at third base has slipped. The rule of thumb is that half the 30-year-old players in the majors will be out of the majors in two years, and the ones who go are the ones who fail to hit (relative to their position, of course). Plouffe is looking for his third team in about seven months; assuming he finds one, he'd better hit, or he may not find a fourth.
Wednesday, May 3, 2017
Ex-Twins watch: Trevor Plouffe
Little tidbit at the end of a Susan Slusser notes item for the San Francisco Chronicle on Sunday:
One doesn't often hear that kind of talk from a player, even though getting released by one's first (and only) organization doubtless carries a unique sting.
Plouffe went 1-for-4 in the series opener, an infield single that lifted his batting average to .209, on Tuesday. He's playing third base pretty much everyday for Oakland, which is a mild surprise given his typical platoon differential and the fact that Oakland manager Bob Melvin may be the current major league skipper most inclined to formal platoons,
The Twins cut Plouffe loose early in the offseason, presumably having quickly ascertained that there was little trade interest in him, and it took him a while to find his one-year deal with the Athletics. While there remains plenty of time for him to turn his stat line around, he's probably not creating a lot of interest in his services in future seasons.
Plouffe was typically handled in Minnesota as a cornerstone piece of the roster, locked the past few years into the cleanup or No 5 slots in the order. (In Oakland he's hitting eighth.) Part of the rationale behind trying to make Miguel Sano a right fielder was to accomodate Plouffe at third base. Plouffe was never, however, good enough in Minnesota to justify that status, and he hasn't been productive enough in Oakland to make the Twins wish they'd kept him.
Secret weapon: Former Twins infielder Trevor Plouffe is returning to Minnesota for the first time since signing with Oakland in January. “It’ll be nice to see everyone again, but I want to beat up on them for sure,” he said. “I’m definitely going to relay some information.”
One doesn't often hear that kind of talk from a player, even though getting released by one's first (and only) organization doubtless carries a unique sting.
Plouffe went 1-for-4 in the series opener, an infield single that lifted his batting average to .209, on Tuesday. He's playing third base pretty much everyday for Oakland, which is a mild surprise given his typical platoon differential and the fact that Oakland manager Bob Melvin may be the current major league skipper most inclined to formal platoons,
The Twins cut Plouffe loose early in the offseason, presumably having quickly ascertained that there was little trade interest in him, and it took him a while to find his one-year deal with the Athletics. While there remains plenty of time for him to turn his stat line around, he's probably not creating a lot of interest in his services in future seasons.
Plouffe was typically handled in Minnesota as a cornerstone piece of the roster, locked the past few years into the cleanup or No 5 slots in the order. (In Oakland he's hitting eighth.) Part of the rationale behind trying to make Miguel Sano a right fielder was to accomodate Plouffe at third base. Plouffe was never, however, good enough in Minnesota to justify that status, and he hasn't been productive enough in Oakland to make the Twins wish they'd kept him.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
From a litle birdie ...
A few Tuesday tweets of note about the Twins:
Not much to see here, I suspect, even if Ryan Vogelsong is a former All-Star. That was back in 2011, when he suddenly emerged as an effective starter with the Giants at age 33. He's 39 now and hasn't good since 2012. Nick Tepesch lacks Vogelsong's track record but is more than a decade younger. He had the same surgery that Phil Hughes is coming back from two years ago.
They'll both be in camp as non-roster invitees. I don't expect much.
When the Twins non-tendered Plouffe early in the offseason, it was said that the veteran third baseman was being given the benefit of an early start on free agency. That it took him well into January to find a landing place suggests that he didn't have much of a market.
I don't know that I would play Plouffe over Ryon Healy at third base, or over Yonder Alonzo or Mark Canha at first. But the A's found more than 500 at-bats for the now-departed Danny Valencia last year. Odd, isn't it, that Plouffe took Valencia's spot when the Twins moved on from him at third base in 2012.
It only takes one phone call to agree to a trade, but I now doubt that Dozier will be dealt this winter. The Twins apparently aren't finding the return they think (and I think) they deserve for him. I gave some reasons why about a week ago.
Twins add pair of veteran righthanders with MLB experience -- Ryan Volgelsong and Nick Tepesch -- to spring roster. https://t.co/Iz7TpIlGsH— Phil Miller (@MillerStrib) January 11, 2017
Not much to see here, I suspect, even if Ryan Vogelsong is a former All-Star. That was back in 2011, when he suddenly emerged as an effective starter with the Giants at age 33. He's 39 now and hasn't good since 2012. Nick Tepesch lacks Vogelsong's track record but is more than a decade younger. He had the same surgery that Phil Hughes is coming back from two years ago.
They'll both be in camp as non-roster invitees. I don't expect much.
Sources: Free-agent infielder Trevor Plouffe to Athletics. Agreement in place. Deal pending a physical.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 11, 2017
When the Twins non-tendered Plouffe early in the offseason, it was said that the veteran third baseman was being given the benefit of an early start on free agency. That it took him well into January to find a landing place suggests that he didn't have much of a market.
I don't know that I would play Plouffe over Ryon Healy at third base, or over Yonder Alonzo or Mark Canha at first. But the A's found more than 500 at-bats for the now-departed Danny Valencia last year. Odd, isn't it, that Plouffe took Valencia's spot when the Twins moved on from him at third base in 2012.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 10, 2017
It only takes one phone call to agree to a trade, but I now doubt that Dozier will be dealt this winter. The Twins apparently aren't finding the return they think (and I think) they deserve for him. I gave some reasons why about a week ago.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Plouffe, there he goes
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| Trevor Plouffe had a series of injuries that limited him to less than 350 plate appearances in 2016. |
In a related development, it was also the day the Twins released veteran third baseman Trevor Plouffe.
They also outrighted catcher Juan Centeno and lost slugging prospect Adam Brett Walker on waivers to the Milwaukee Brewers.
These moves opened three more slots on the 40-man roster, The Twins filled six of the seven vacancies with prospects: catcher Mitch Garver; outfielders Daniel Palka and Zack Granite; shortstop Engelb Vielma; and right-handed starters Fernando Romero and Felix Jorge.
Plouffe's departure is the biggest news, if only because manager Paul Molitor -- and Ron Gardenhire before him -- made the one-time first round draft pick a fixture in the middle of the lineup. He was always an ill fit in a key lineup role, with low on-base percentages and mediocre slugging percentages. He had made himself into a above-average defensive third baseman, but his varied injuries last year slowed his reaction to batted balls.
Presumably the new brain trust found little interest in Plouffe as trade bait, and the roster spot was deemed more valuable than the veteran. Certainly, with Miguel Sano's outfield venture deemed a failure last season, there wasn't an obvious role for Plouffe on the 2017 Twins. Sano's going to be the third baseman in Minnesota now.
Plouffe, who turned 30 in June, will land somewhere. I certainly don't wish him ill, but it was clearly time for him to move on.
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Park banged
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| Byung Ho Park turned 30 last month. |
His numbers, majors and minors, weren't good. How much of his struggles can be laid at his hand and wrist issues and how much at his ability/approach is uncertain. It's difficult to hit with a bad hand or wrist. Park, through his translator, downplays the injury factor in the linked story, but that may simply be a "no excuses" approach.
Excuse or reason, the injury (injuries?) make Park's 2016 deceptively difficult to evaluate. When he made contact, the ball went a long way. But he didn't make contact very often.
Park is signed through 2019, maybe 2020 (team option). Joe Mauer is signed through 2018. That's two for first base and designated hitter. Miguel Sano may not be any more a third baseman than he was a right fielder, so he may be a third for that mix. Then there's Kennys Vargas, who slugged .576 in his limited major league time. Four.
Meanwhile, Trevor Plouffe has seemingly been locked into both first base and the cleanup slot. There may be a universe in which that is optimal, but I don't think I'm inhabiting it.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
The roster shuffle
No holiday in Twins transactions this past weekend.
I commented Monday on the Jepsen move. Let's sort through the rest ...
All told, the Twins have cut down from 13 pitchers to 12 on the active roster. That might suggest that they've grown comfortable with the starters' ability to go six-plus innings, but I suspect that this has at least as much to do with the All Start break coming in less than a week.
May: I suggested in the Monday print column that the Twins might be well advised to return May to the starting rotation. Right now they have every slot filled, and Jose Berrios is probably ahead of May if a rotation spot opens. May rehabbed for relief work, and that's the plan.
Supposedly May has shortened his stride during his delivery to reduce the strain on his back and hips. We'll see how well that works.
Plouffe: Out, they say, for three to four weeks with a cracked rib. In the short term, it opens third base for Miguel Sano, but it also probably keeps Plouffe from being traded this month. Which means that, when Plouffe is healthy again (or at least sound enough to play) there will be two third basemen on the roster.
At least this will give his wonky groin a chance to heal.
Mastroianni: It was easy to forget that Mastro was officially on the active roster, but he was hitless in nine official at-bats. He has the right to opt out of his contract, but he's expected to forgo that and remain in the organization.
Rosario: Optioned out because pitchers were exploiting his inability to gauge the strike zone, he hit .319 and slugged .538 in Triple A. He also drew just seven walks, which suggests that Triple A pitchers aren't good enough to exploit his free-swinging ways -- which further suggests that he's going to have to learn at the major league level.
Question: Where do his at-bats come from? He played left field on Sunday and Monday. Robbie Grossman was the DH in one game and sat the other. Presuming Byron Buxton and Max Kepler are to be in the lineup (and they should), Rosario and Grossman will be dueling for left field time.
Vargas: The big switch-hitter was, according to the radio guys Sunday, leading the International League in RBIs when called up. Statistical luddite Dan Gladden finds that significant. Those of us with a better understanding of how to interpret the stat line don't.
This might be Vargas' last chance with the Twins. They have plenty of DH alternatives, and I have to believe Byung Ho Park still ranks ahead of Vargas in their long-range thinking. And the DH slot offers a chance to feed at-bats to one of the young outfielders, so his opportunities may be limited.
Boshers: Never thought I'd be irritated to see him sent down, but he has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. His demotion flies in the face of the Greg McMichael Rule (If you get outs, they'll find a role for you.) He got outs, and he's going back to Rochester.
For now. He'll be back before August, whether to fill a gap created by a trade, an injury or because they need to go back to 13 pitchers. Boshers lost the job not because he failed, but because he was a spot with roster flexibility.
- DFA'd: Kevin Jepsen.
- Put on the disabled list: Trevor Plouffe
- Reactivated from the disabled list but outrighted to Triple A: Darin Mastroianni.
- Optioned to the minors: Buddy Boshers
- Recalled from the minors: Eddie Rosario and Kennys Vargas
- Reactivated from the disabled list: Trevor May
I commented Monday on the Jepsen move. Let's sort through the rest ...
All told, the Twins have cut down from 13 pitchers to 12 on the active roster. That might suggest that they've grown comfortable with the starters' ability to go six-plus innings, but I suspect that this has at least as much to do with the All Start break coming in less than a week.
May: I suggested in the Monday print column that the Twins might be well advised to return May to the starting rotation. Right now they have every slot filled, and Jose Berrios is probably ahead of May if a rotation spot opens. May rehabbed for relief work, and that's the plan.
Supposedly May has shortened his stride during his delivery to reduce the strain on his back and hips. We'll see how well that works.
Plouffe: Out, they say, for three to four weeks with a cracked rib. In the short term, it opens third base for Miguel Sano, but it also probably keeps Plouffe from being traded this month. Which means that, when Plouffe is healthy again (or at least sound enough to play) there will be two third basemen on the roster.
At least this will give his wonky groin a chance to heal.
Mastroianni: It was easy to forget that Mastro was officially on the active roster, but he was hitless in nine official at-bats. He has the right to opt out of his contract, but he's expected to forgo that and remain in the organization.
Rosario: Optioned out because pitchers were exploiting his inability to gauge the strike zone, he hit .319 and slugged .538 in Triple A. He also drew just seven walks, which suggests that Triple A pitchers aren't good enough to exploit his free-swinging ways -- which further suggests that he's going to have to learn at the major league level.
Question: Where do his at-bats come from? He played left field on Sunday and Monday. Robbie Grossman was the DH in one game and sat the other. Presuming Byron Buxton and Max Kepler are to be in the lineup (and they should), Rosario and Grossman will be dueling for left field time.
Vargas: The big switch-hitter was, according to the radio guys Sunday, leading the International League in RBIs when called up. Statistical luddite Dan Gladden finds that significant. Those of us with a better understanding of how to interpret the stat line don't.
This might be Vargas' last chance with the Twins. They have plenty of DH alternatives, and I have to believe Byung Ho Park still ranks ahead of Vargas in their long-range thinking. And the DH slot offers a chance to feed at-bats to one of the young outfielders, so his opportunities may be limited.
Boshers: Never thought I'd be irritated to see him sent down, but he has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. His demotion flies in the face of the Greg McMichael Rule (If you get outs, they'll find a role for you.) He got outs, and he's going back to Rochester.
For now. He'll be back before August, whether to fill a gap created by a trade, an injury or because they need to go back to 13 pitchers. Boshers lost the job not because he failed, but because he was a spot with roster flexibility.
Saturday, July 2, 2016
Sano, Park and Plouffe
Miguel Sano was reactivated Friday after missing the entire month of June with his pulled hamstring. Byung Ho Park was optioned out to make room for Sano.
No surprise there. Park's numbers were sinking fast. He hit .136 in June and had three times as many strikeouts as hits.
The truly noteworthy news from Sano's return was Paul Molitor's declaration that Sano was going to DH and play third base. Outfield? Only in an emergency, said the manager. This more or less echoed what Terry Ryan said almost two weeks ago in a radio interview.
And on Friday night, Sano played third and Trevor Plouffe was the designated hitter. Sano made a sparking bare-handed grab-and-throw on a nubber, and got lost on a popup that shortstop Eduardo Nunez grabbed.
It's fairly awkward. Plouffe is the more reliable defender at third, but as the song says, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Sano is going to be the third baseman sooner or later, and probably sooner.
Rayns has promised trades this month, and I expect Plouffe will be one of those departing. I doubt there will be a significant return; the advantage for the Twins would be opening third base for Sano -- and reopening DH for somebody else. Like Park, assuming he figures something out in Triple A.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Notes, quotes and comment
Oswaldo Arcia's time in designated-for-assignment limbo ended Friday when the Twins traded him to Tampa Bay for cash or a player to be determined.
I expect to make this the topic of the Monday print column, so suffice it to say that I think the Rays are a good team for him. They're smart enough that they aren't likely to insist that he play outfield.
---
Trevor Plouffe's most recent injury (groin) is probably behind the latest change in plans with Miguel Sano's rehab assignment. The description supplied earlier in the week was: third base on Friday, DH on Saturday, right field on Sunday, see where he's at. By Friday it had become: Five innings at third on Friday, seven innings at third on Saturday, DH on Sunday.
At which point they may well stick Plouffe back on the disabled list and bring Sano back.
---
Alex Kirilloff, the high school outfielder the Twins selected with the 15th overall pick earlier in the month. signed for slot ($2.8 million) this week and is expected to make his debut today with Elizabethton in the Appy League.
The Twins have signed 28 of their 42 picks. That may be a higher-than-usual percentage, but they went heavy on collegians in the second and third day, and the bulk of draftees who don't sign are later-round high schoolers who can reasonably hope that a few years in college will boost their status.
I expect to make this the topic of the Monday print column, so suffice it to say that I think the Rays are a good team for him. They're smart enough that they aren't likely to insist that he play outfield.
---
Trevor Plouffe's most recent injury (groin) is probably behind the latest change in plans with Miguel Sano's rehab assignment. The description supplied earlier in the week was: third base on Friday, DH on Saturday, right field on Sunday, see where he's at. By Friday it had become: Five innings at third on Friday, seven innings at third on Saturday, DH on Sunday.
At which point they may well stick Plouffe back on the disabled list and bring Sano back.
---
Alex Kirilloff, the high school outfielder the Twins selected with the 15th overall pick earlier in the month. signed for slot ($2.8 million) this week and is expected to make his debut today with Elizabethton in the Appy League.
The Twins have signed 28 of their 42 picks. That may be a higher-than-usual percentage, but they went heavy on collegians in the second and third day, and the bulk of draftees who don't sign are later-round high schoolers who can reasonably hope that a few years in college will boost their status.
Monday, June 20, 2016
The (apparent) end of Sano in the outfield
Terry Ryan, in his semi-regular radio appearance Sunday, said that the current plan is for Miguel Sano to go on a rehab assignment later in the week. And when the big guy returns to the majors, it won't be as an outfielder.
He'll DH, the general manager said, while deferring to the absent manager, Paul Molitor. He'll play third base some. He might even play some first base. But not right field, which was Sano's usual position before his hamstring pull, because of the leg issues. Sano's future? Said Ryan: "No question, it's third base."
No question? Really, Mr. Ryan?
I am, let us say, dubious of the implication that it will be easier to keep Sano healthy and in the lineup as a third baseman. I can, off the top of my head, rattle off the names of several third basemen whose careers were curtailed or limited by back problems, from John Castino to Ryan Zimmerman. Anecdotally, the position seems to be tough on backs. And personal experience tells me than hamstring issues and back issues tend to go hand in hand; an injury to one often presages an injury to the other.
That said, Ryan has more qualified medical and training advisors than me. And Sano obviously did not fare well in the outfield. I've said before that there is probably never going to be a position at which Sano is the best defensive option; wherever he plays, there's going to be a trade off of defense for offense. Which makes the question: Where does Sano least hurt the club? The Twins brain trust decided early in the offseason that the answer was right field, in part because that allowed Trevor Plouffe to remain the third baseman.
Another question: How do the Twins reshape the roster if Sano is no longer to play outfield? Ryan has in the past suggested that maintaining Sano's weight is a reason to have him playing a position and not be primarily a designated hitter. In the short term, DH may have to be the fall back, as it was in the second half of 2015. If he's going to be the DH the rest of the way, there's no real purpose to Byung Ho Park's presence on the roster.
But if Sano is "no question" a third baseman in the future, that takes away Plouffe's position. (And if he's no longer an outfielder, that makes it easier to give Max Kepler a sustained opportunity.) I said in today's print column that I will be disappointed if the Twins don't deal away at least one of their veteran infielders before the trading deadline, and I focused on Plouffe and Brian Dozier.
I wrote that before hearing Ryan. Nothing I heard him say contradicts my thinking, even though his concern is fitting Sano into the lineup rather than Jorge Polanco. Third question: Why not both?
Bottom line: The Twins shaped their 2016 plans around Sano in the outfield. 2016 has not gone well, and that plan is being jettisoned. But the roster has to be reworked to reflect that new reality.
He'll DH, the general manager said, while deferring to the absent manager, Paul Molitor. He'll play third base some. He might even play some first base. But not right field, which was Sano's usual position before his hamstring pull, because of the leg issues. Sano's future? Said Ryan: "No question, it's third base."
No question? Really, Mr. Ryan?
I am, let us say, dubious of the implication that it will be easier to keep Sano healthy and in the lineup as a third baseman. I can, off the top of my head, rattle off the names of several third basemen whose careers were curtailed or limited by back problems, from John Castino to Ryan Zimmerman. Anecdotally, the position seems to be tough on backs. And personal experience tells me than hamstring issues and back issues tend to go hand in hand; an injury to one often presages an injury to the other.
That said, Ryan has more qualified medical and training advisors than me. And Sano obviously did not fare well in the outfield. I've said before that there is probably never going to be a position at which Sano is the best defensive option; wherever he plays, there's going to be a trade off of defense for offense. Which makes the question: Where does Sano least hurt the club? The Twins brain trust decided early in the offseason that the answer was right field, in part because that allowed Trevor Plouffe to remain the third baseman.
Another question: How do the Twins reshape the roster if Sano is no longer to play outfield? Ryan has in the past suggested that maintaining Sano's weight is a reason to have him playing a position and not be primarily a designated hitter. In the short term, DH may have to be the fall back, as it was in the second half of 2015. If he's going to be the DH the rest of the way, there's no real purpose to Byung Ho Park's presence on the roster.
But if Sano is "no question" a third baseman in the future, that takes away Plouffe's position. (And if he's no longer an outfielder, that makes it easier to give Max Kepler a sustained opportunity.) I said in today's print column that I will be disappointed if the Twins don't deal away at least one of their veteran infielders before the trading deadline, and I focused on Plouffe and Brian Dozier.
I wrote that before hearing Ryan. Nothing I heard him say contradicts my thinking, even though his concern is fitting Sano into the lineup rather than Jorge Polanco. Third question: Why not both?
Bottom line: The Twins shaped their 2016 plans around Sano in the outfield. 2016 has not gone well, and that plan is being jettisoned. But the roster has to be reworked to reflect that new reality.
Monday, April 18, 2016
Thoughts from the weekend
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| A happier image for the Twins than in yesterday's post: Oswaldo Arcia and interviewer Marney Gellner get doused by Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario after Arcia's game-winner. |
A few comments after the Twins swept the Angels during the weekend:
* The late-inning bullpen work was part of the problem in the nine-game losing streak that opened the Twins season. But on Sunday Kevin Jepsen and Trevor May had strong one-inning outings, and Casey Fien/Ryan O'Rourke combined for a hitless inning.
Perhaps the revelation was Michael Tonkin, who overpowered Mike Trout and Albert Pujols (and others) in his two-innings stint. Tonkin essentially made the roster out of camp because he was out of options. Sunday was just his third outing, and he looked, for once, like a pitcher who could dominate the International League (which he did last season).
I'm not forecasting an immediate role promotion for Tonkin. But what I've long called the Greg McMichael Rule always applies: Get outs and theyll find a role for you.
*Oswaldo Arcia hit the go-ahead homer on Saturday and got the game-winner on Sunday -- and went opposite field on both. I suspect he hasn't had two hits to left field in the same month previously. (And he had another left-field hit on Sunday.)
Terry Ryan on Arcia from the gamer by the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino:
“I guess I have to keep reminding myself that lad is still 24,” Ryan said. “It seems like he’s 34, he’s been around so long. Maybe I have to make sure everybody else remembers it as well.”
Well, yeah. I was ready to discard Arcia during the offseason. And, to be blunt, it takes more than a good weekend to discard the label I'd put on him from three seasons' exposure. Maybe he's figured it out. And maybe he'll revert to the pull-happy defensive butcher he's been in the past.
The Twins have plenty of outfielders to pick from. Arcia this weekend put himself back in the running for playing time.
* Trevor Plouffe left the game with what was deemed a strained intercostal muscle. Supposedly he's day-to-day, but these things have a tendency to linger.
Whether Plouffe is out two games or two weeks, do not expect Miguel Sano to start at third. The big guy hasn't taken grounders there since winter ball. He's an outfielder now. I'm not saying he's a good outfielder now, but he wasn't a good third baseman either, and the Twins are not going to yo-yo him back and forth.
Here's an issue, however: if Plouffe stays on the active roster but can't play, there Twins now have no backup infielder. Presumably Eduardo Nunez will play third, but the four-man bench will be Plouffe, the backup catcher and two outfielders. Sano and Eddie Rosario have infield experience. If something happens, somebody will have to play second or third.
Sunday, April 17, 2016
Pic of the Week
 |
| Trevor Plouffe contemplates the Twins' 0-9 record after Thursday's loss to the White Sox. |
Since that photo was made, the Twins have won a pair of games, and Plouffe had no small role in those wins. He scored the winning run on Friday, dashing from first base on Byung Ho Park's double, and was 3-for-4 with a home run and a double on Saturday.
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Plouffe and the future
The Twins wrapped up their arbitration cases Monday without going to any hearings when they and Trevor Plouffe agreed on a one-year. $7.25 million deal.
As I said about Casey Fien's settlement, the money interests me less that the organizational decision to stick with Plouffe at third base.
As the off season continues, I've become increasingly resigned to the notion that Miguel Sano is going to be in the outfield in 2016. I'm not convinced that's the right place for him, but I also know there is skepticism about Sano as a third baseman as well.
The concerns about Sano in the outfield and at third are similar, Sano is simply much bigger than normal for those positions. Players of his weight class are first basemen or designated hitters. I think it was Aaron Gleeman who researched it when the Sano-to-the-outfield talk started and determined that the last regular outfielder with a listed weight above 250 pounds was Frank Howard, and that was more than 40 years ago.
So ... Plouffe remains the Twins third baseman. He's not eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season, at which point he'll be 31.
Let's say that Plouffe stays at third for the Twins through 2017, then signs elsewhere as a free agent. It's a safe bet that his successor at the hot corner won't be Sano. By then he'll have either established himself as an outfielder or played his way to first base or DH.
If the Twins are indeed serious about playing him in the outfield this year, he's not going to be working on his infield technique. He'll have enough on his plate learning the nuances of outfield play.
The Twins did spend a couple of high draft picks on high school third basemen last June, Travis Blankenhorn (third round) and Trey Cabbage (fourth round). I wouldn't expect either to be ready by 2018 to inherit the job, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
That's down the road, obviously, but the fact remains that if Sano was going to become the Minnesota third baseman, this was the year for it to happen. The Twins have decided not to take that route.
As I said about Casey Fien's settlement, the money interests me less that the organizational decision to stick with Plouffe at third base.
As the off season continues, I've become increasingly resigned to the notion that Miguel Sano is going to be in the outfield in 2016. I'm not convinced that's the right place for him, but I also know there is skepticism about Sano as a third baseman as well.
The concerns about Sano in the outfield and at third are similar, Sano is simply much bigger than normal for those positions. Players of his weight class are first basemen or designated hitters. I think it was Aaron Gleeman who researched it when the Sano-to-the-outfield talk started and determined that the last regular outfielder with a listed weight above 250 pounds was Frank Howard, and that was more than 40 years ago.
So ... Plouffe remains the Twins third baseman. He's not eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season, at which point he'll be 31.
Let's say that Plouffe stays at third for the Twins through 2017, then signs elsewhere as a free agent. It's a safe bet that his successor at the hot corner won't be Sano. By then he'll have either established himself as an outfielder or played his way to first base or DH.
If the Twins are indeed serious about playing him in the outfield this year, he's not going to be working on his infield technique. He'll have enough on his plate learning the nuances of outfield play.
The Twins did spend a couple of high draft picks on high school third basemen last June, Travis Blankenhorn (third round) and Trey Cabbage (fourth round). I wouldn't expect either to be ready by 2018 to inherit the job, but I wouldn't rule it out either.
That's down the road, obviously, but the fact remains that if Sano was going to become the Minnesota third baseman, this was the year for it to happen. The Twins have decided not to take that route.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Inferences from the Lawrie trade
Here' something I said in Thursday's post on the topic of trading Trevor Plouffe:
Another factor in this: Oakland is apparently eager to trade Brett Lawrie, a very comparable third baseman. If the Twins were pushing for a Plouffe trade, the immediate effect would be a buyer's market. Taking their time on moving Plouffe, assuming they want to, might well be the best tactic.
Well, on Thursday the A's did trade Lawrie, and their return from the White Sox (a pair of minor league pitchers) was regarded as underwhelming:
That is a rather modest haul for Lawrie. https://t.co/cC49nhJorC— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) December 10, 2015
It's certainly plausible that the Twins took a quick read of the third base market, realized that there wasn't going to be much of a market for Plouffe, and decided to try to make a virtue of necessity. Still, I suspect the Twins would be better off with Sano at third and either Max Kepler or Oswaldo Arcia in the outfield than with Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at third, even if they got zilch for Plouffe.
Here's an amusing (to me at least) sidelight to the Lawrie trade: As of now, it makes Danny Valencia the A's third baseman -- the same Valencia who lost the Minnesota third base job to Plouffe. Shuffle and deal, shuffle and deal, and the same cards keep showing up.
Wednesday, December 9, 2015
Winter meetings, midway through
The Twins have been on the sidelines through the first two days of the Winter Meetings -- no trades, just talk and some indications.
Indication One: Reluctant as I am to accept this, the Twins are certainly behaving as if they are serious about this Miguel Sano-to-the-outfield concept. Reports out of Nashville indicate that the Twins will listen to trade offers for Trevor Plouffe but aren't showing any urgency about moving the veteran third baseman.
Another factor in this: Oakland is apparently eager to trade Brett Lawrie, a very comparable third baseman. If the Twins were pushing for a Plouffe trade, the immediate effect would be a buyer's market. Taking their time on moving Plouffe, assuming they want to, might well be the best tactic.
Indication Two: Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, two free agent relievers who between them made 123 appearances for the Twins last year, won't be back. The Twins are, however, interested in bringing back Neal Cotts. As lefty relievers go, I'd probably prefer Duensing to Cotts, but Duensing figures to be the more expensive of the two.
Indication Three: Minnesota's top focus so far is said to be relief pitching, particularly left-handed, but there is also chatter that the Twins are shopping Ricky Nolasco. It's a good guess that moving Nolasco will either require the Twins to take on somebody else's bad contract or hand over a chunk of money to cover Nolasco's remaining years. Or both, Dumping Nolasco looks like addition by subtraction at this point, however. The Twins need to clear some rotation space.
Indication Four: Unless something happens today, the Twins will sit out the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. They have a full 40-man roster. They have seldom skipped Rule 5, but this year may be the exception.
Indication One: Reluctant as I am to accept this, the Twins are certainly behaving as if they are serious about this Miguel Sano-to-the-outfield concept. Reports out of Nashville indicate that the Twins will listen to trade offers for Trevor Plouffe but aren't showing any urgency about moving the veteran third baseman.
Another factor in this: Oakland is apparently eager to trade Brett Lawrie, a very comparable third baseman. If the Twins were pushing for a Plouffe trade, the immediate effect would be a buyer's market. Taking their time on moving Plouffe, assuming they want to, might well be the best tactic.
Indication Two: Brian Duensing and Blaine Boyer, two free agent relievers who between them made 123 appearances for the Twins last year, won't be back. The Twins are, however, interested in bringing back Neal Cotts. As lefty relievers go, I'd probably prefer Duensing to Cotts, but Duensing figures to be the more expensive of the two.
Indication Three: Minnesota's top focus so far is said to be relief pitching, particularly left-handed, but there is also chatter that the Twins are shopping Ricky Nolasco. It's a good guess that moving Nolasco will either require the Twins to take on somebody else's bad contract or hand over a chunk of money to cover Nolasco's remaining years. Or both, Dumping Nolasco looks like addition by subtraction at this point, however. The Twins need to clear some rotation space.
Indication Four: Unless something happens today, the Twins will sit out the Rule 5 draft on Thursday. They have a full 40-man roster. They have seldom skipped Rule 5, but this year may be the exception.
Monday, November 30, 2015
Why Plouffe stays at third
A comment on Friday's post wonders why the Twins aren't considering Trevor Plouffe for the outfield instead of contemplating such a move for Miguel Sano. After all, Plouffe was in the process of becoming an outfielder in 2012 when Danny Valencia's Twins tenure imploded and Plouffe wound up at third.
Indeed, that idea has crossed my mind (and entered the blog) more than once. But Terry Ryan has ruled it out. Four (explicit or inferred) reasons:
Squatters rights. This is not unique to the Twins. Teams rarely force an established player off his accustomed position to make room for a newcomer. They may sound him out, but if there is resistance, they'll generally leave the veteran alone and shift the kid -- or trade the veteran. Why? Because having a central figure of the team angry and resentful is bad -- bad for the manager and bad for the rookie trying to establish himself. (Note: This is a general observation, not necessarily specific to the Plouffe-Sano dynamic.)
I have a co-worker who rejects that thinking. If my boss tells me to do something, I do it; if I don't, I might get fired. But there are a lot more people capable of doing my job or his job than are capable of playing baseball at that level. It's a rare skill set. (The trade option is, in a sense, a variation of firing the player, except that he doesn't wind up unemployed.)
Plouffe isn't the player he was when the Twins had him in the outfield. He's heavier (by some 15 pounds) and older (29) than he was back then. It's a good guess that, even though Sano outweighs Plouffe, Sano is faster and simply a better athlete. Neither is likely to be an outstanding defensive outfielder, but Sano has better tools to bring to the job.
Plouffe is a better defensive third baseman than Sano. Play Sano at third and Plouffe in an outfield corner, you have a (presumably) below average defender at both positions; play Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at third, you have a below average outfielder and a good third baseman.
It's all posture. If the theory this is all about maintaining Plouffe's trade value is correct, which is more likely to be part of it: Plouffe's too good at third to move or We have to move him to make room for Sano?
Indeed, that idea has crossed my mind (and entered the blog) more than once. But Terry Ryan has ruled it out. Four (explicit or inferred) reasons:
Squatters rights. This is not unique to the Twins. Teams rarely force an established player off his accustomed position to make room for a newcomer. They may sound him out, but if there is resistance, they'll generally leave the veteran alone and shift the kid -- or trade the veteran. Why? Because having a central figure of the team angry and resentful is bad -- bad for the manager and bad for the rookie trying to establish himself. (Note: This is a general observation, not necessarily specific to the Plouffe-Sano dynamic.)
I have a co-worker who rejects that thinking. If my boss tells me to do something, I do it; if I don't, I might get fired. But there are a lot more people capable of doing my job or his job than are capable of playing baseball at that level. It's a rare skill set. (The trade option is, in a sense, a variation of firing the player, except that he doesn't wind up unemployed.)
Plouffe isn't the player he was when the Twins had him in the outfield. He's heavier (by some 15 pounds) and older (29) than he was back then. It's a good guess that, even though Sano outweighs Plouffe, Sano is faster and simply a better athlete. Neither is likely to be an outstanding defensive outfielder, but Sano has better tools to bring to the job.
Plouffe is a better defensive third baseman than Sano. Play Sano at third and Plouffe in an outfield corner, you have a (presumably) below average defender at both positions; play Sano in the outfield and Plouffe at third, you have a below average outfielder and a good third baseman.
It's all posture. If the theory this is all about maintaining Plouffe's trade value is correct, which is more likely to be part of it: Plouffe's too good at third to move or We have to move him to make room for Sano?
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Byung-ho Park effects
I didn't see this coming, but few if any outside the closed-mouth Twins organization did: The Twins on Monday landed the negotiation rights to Korean slugger Byung-ho Park.
In a nutshell: Park's Korean team, the Nexen Heroes, posted the 29-year-old first baseman. The Twins bid nearly $13 million for the right to sign Park. If they do sign him by the Dec. 8 deadline, the Twins owe the Heroes the $12.85 million; if they don't, they owe the Heroes nothing and Park plays in Korea next year.
It's rare, but not unprecedented, for a posting rights winner to fail to sign the player in question, so I expect the Twins and Park to strike a deal. Then what?
Park racked up big power numbers in the Korean league, bopping more than 50 homers each of the past two seasons. While there is no reason to expect him to hit 50 in the states, his Korean production was similar to that of Jung Ho Kang, who had a fine rookie season for Pittsburgh before suffering an injury on a take-out slide.
Park has flaws. He's limited to first base defensively, and he has, like Miguel Sano, a tendency to swing-and-miss. Inside fastballs are specifically said to be an issue for him. But if he hits as Kang did last year, there's certainly room for him in the Twins lineup.
But where? His likely addition opens a new window on the Sano-to-the-outfield chatter of last week. Pencil Park and Joe Mauer in to share DH and first base duties. If Trevor Plouffe remains at third base, the outfield is the only option to keep Sano in the lineup.
Which is, really, rather backwards thinking. Sano has to be in the lineup, and you work around that reality.
Can Sano play outfield? He hasn't in games, Even if he's passable in left or right, there's no way he's going to be as adept as Eddie Rosario or Aaron Hicks.
Which, as I see it, makes a trade of Plouffe likely. I'd rather have Sano at third than in the outfield, and it seems silly to stall Byron Buxton's emergence for anybody. I'm hoping that the Sano-as-an-outfielder notion is a smokescreen designed to bolster Plouffe's trade value by presenting the illusion that the Twins aren't trading him to make room for Park.
Even if they are.
In a nutshell: Park's Korean team, the Nexen Heroes, posted the 29-year-old first baseman. The Twins bid nearly $13 million for the right to sign Park. If they do sign him by the Dec. 8 deadline, the Twins owe the Heroes the $12.85 million; if they don't, they owe the Heroes nothing and Park plays in Korea next year.
It's rare, but not unprecedented, for a posting rights winner to fail to sign the player in question, so I expect the Twins and Park to strike a deal. Then what?
Park racked up big power numbers in the Korean league, bopping more than 50 homers each of the past two seasons. While there is no reason to expect him to hit 50 in the states, his Korean production was similar to that of Jung Ho Kang, who had a fine rookie season for Pittsburgh before suffering an injury on a take-out slide.
Jung Ho Kang, 2014: .356 AVG, .459 OBP, .739 SLG
Byung-ho Park, 2015: .343 AVG, .436 OBP, .714 SLG
Kang hit .287/.355/.461 as MLB rookie.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) November 9, 2015
Park has flaws. He's limited to first base defensively, and he has, like Miguel Sano, a tendency to swing-and-miss. Inside fastballs are specifically said to be an issue for him. But if he hits as Kang did last year, there's certainly room for him in the Twins lineup.
But where? His likely addition opens a new window on the Sano-to-the-outfield chatter of last week. Pencil Park and Joe Mauer in to share DH and first base duties. If Trevor Plouffe remains at third base, the outfield is the only option to keep Sano in the lineup.
Which is, really, rather backwards thinking. Sano has to be in the lineup, and you work around that reality.
Can Sano play outfield? He hasn't in games, Even if he's passable in left or right, there's no way he's going to be as adept as Eddie Rosario or Aaron Hicks.
Which, as I see it, makes a trade of Plouffe likely. I'd rather have Sano at third than in the outfield, and it seems silly to stall Byron Buxton's emergence for anybody. I'm hoping that the Sano-as-an-outfielder notion is a smokescreen designed to bolster Plouffe's trade value by presenting the illusion that the Twins aren't trading him to make room for Park.
Even if they are.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
The corner infield "logjam"
Terry Ryan on Tuesday had a media session Tuesday heading into the organizational meetings that start later this week in Fort Myers. The consensus on Twitter was that there was no big news coming out of it but a few tidbits were informational.
That last is probably the most significant of the items. Plouffe has become a quality defensive third baseman, and he led the Twins in RBIs this year while hitting in the middle of the lineup. Mauer had the worst offensive season of his career but still led the Twins in walks and on-base percentage (as long as we draw the qualifying line above Sano, who had about half a season of plate appearances.)
The irrational grief Mauer takes on talk radio and social media obscures reality. He isn't the .330/.400/.500 hitter of his 20s. But his OBP still plays in the upper half of the batting order.
Both Mauer and Plouffe were, by OPS+, slightly below league average at the plate but considerably better than, say, Torii Hunter. Neither was as good at hitting as Sano, whose time in the field was limited by hamstring issues.
There is only a problem here for the Twins if they make it one. They have three corner infielders, each of whom still has a useful role in the lineup, and three positions to play them (first base, third base and designated hitter). This isn't a true logjam.
There's a fallacy that the Twins have fallen into before, notably with David Ortiz: So-and-so is "too young" to be a designated hitter. This is not unique to the Twins, of course; most notably, the Seattle Mariners wasted a sizable chuck of Edgar Martinez' career because he had no defensive position. He had to get into his late 20s before the M's let him do what he was born to do.
The Twins want Sano to work on his defense, and one piece of that may well be that he will have to hold his weight down if he's playing in the field. Another is that they'll want him in the lineup for interleague road games. But the core reality is this: The 2016 Twins, barring trade or injury, figure to have Mauer, Sano and Plouffe in the middle of the lineup, and the best defensive alignment of the trio has Sano as the designated hitter.
- No surgeries are planned, but Brian Dozier is to have an MRI on his hip.
- The coaching staff is expected to return en masse, although contracts have yet to be finalized.
- Ryan won't pinpoint any specific position or player for offseason moves. (No kidding.)
- Trevor Plouffe and Joe Mauer won't be changing positions, and Ryan doesn't want Miguel Sano pigeonholed as a designated hitter.
That last is probably the most significant of the items. Plouffe has become a quality defensive third baseman, and he led the Twins in RBIs this year while hitting in the middle of the lineup. Mauer had the worst offensive season of his career but still led the Twins in walks and on-base percentage (as long as we draw the qualifying line above Sano, who had about half a season of plate appearances.)
The irrational grief Mauer takes on talk radio and social media obscures reality. He isn't the .330/.400/.500 hitter of his 20s. But his OBP still plays in the upper half of the batting order.
Both Mauer and Plouffe were, by OPS+, slightly below league average at the plate but considerably better than, say, Torii Hunter. Neither was as good at hitting as Sano, whose time in the field was limited by hamstring issues.
There is only a problem here for the Twins if they make it one. They have three corner infielders, each of whom still has a useful role in the lineup, and three positions to play them (first base, third base and designated hitter). This isn't a true logjam.
There's a fallacy that the Twins have fallen into before, notably with David Ortiz: So-and-so is "too young" to be a designated hitter. This is not unique to the Twins, of course; most notably, the Seattle Mariners wasted a sizable chuck of Edgar Martinez' career because he had no defensive position. He had to get into his late 20s before the M's let him do what he was born to do.
The Twins want Sano to work on his defense, and one piece of that may well be that he will have to hold his weight down if he's playing in the field. Another is that they'll want him in the lineup for interleague road games. But the core reality is this: The 2016 Twins, barring trade or injury, figure to have Mauer, Sano and Plouffe in the middle of the lineup, and the best defensive alignment of the trio has Sano as the designated hitter.
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