Showing posts with label Trevor May. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trevor May. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Notes, quotes and comment

Jose Berrios didn't fare well Tuesday night. His first pitch was hit about as well as the last pitch on Monday night was -- both blasts hit the limestone above the batter's eye -- and things deteriorated from there.

I shall avoid dwelling on that unpleasantness and find some other things to comment on ...

* I said in Tuesday morning's post that Trevor May hit 98 at times on Monday night. He actually peaked at 100, on the pitch that got the double-play grounder that got him out of the eighth inning. I don't know that I've seen any Twins pitcher hit triple-digits.

It was rather optimal conditions for May. He had thrown exactly one pitch in game conditions in a week, so his arm was about as fresh as it could be in August. It was a warm, humid night, so no chill to contract the muscles. And it was a close game in a pennant race, so the adrenaline was flowing.

If he was going to throw 100, that was a prime opportunity for it.

* Jonathan Schoop has started once in the past six games. I'm starting to suspect that he might be a candidate to be DFA'd if the Twins need a roster spot.

He has been better this year than in 2018, but that's not saying much. And much of his production has come in blowouts. He is, I believe, a better defensive second baseman than Luis Arraez, but not enough to make up for the difference between the two at the plate.

I certainly prefer to see Arraez at the plate in the ninth inning of a tied game than Schoop.

* I've commented before on how much Rocco Baldelli shuffles players around various positions. Marwin Gonzalez, Arraez, Ehrie Adrianza and the injured Willians Astudillo have all started games at at least four different positions.

Deciding where to put them is frequently an interesting puzzle. On Monday Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza were all in the infield (with Jorge Polanco at shortstop). Baldelli's alignment had Adrianza at first, Arraez at second and Gonzalez at third. My inclination would have been to flip Adrianza and Gonzalez.

I do sometimes wonder how much of a connection there is between the position shuffling and the misplays and errors we've seen over the past couple of months. The Twins were changed with 77 errors in their first 112 games; the average team had 69.

Of course, there's a lot more to defense than avoiding errors, and the Twins, at least by the defensive metrics available on baseball reference, are solidly above average.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Contemplating Trevor May

The Twins won Monday night. Cleveland lost. So the lead is four games.

(Let me note here that I apparently can't read a schedule. I thought Cleveland was playing Cincinnati. It's actually Texas.)

The win was important for the Twins. Perhaps even more important was the performance of Trevor May, who hit 98 at times in blowing away Atlanta batters in his two innings of relief.

May has been a bit of a disappointment this season. I expected him to emerge as a key late-inning guy, the most likely candidate in this bullpen for the role of closer. Rocco Baldelli, as you know, hasn't gone with the contemporary closer, but May hasn't really pitched well enough to seize the glory job anyway.

Monday was actually May's second straight outing in which he was credited with the win; he got one on Friday in a one-pitch appearance. Prior to that, he had allowed at least one run in five straight appearances, blowing two leads and taking two losses. It was not a good month of July.

It's not hard, looking at his stat line for the season, to see the issue. May walked five hitters in his 25.1 major league innings last year (he spent much of 2018 rehabbing his elbow after ligament replacement surgery); that works out to 1.8 walks per nine innings. Monday's outing gives him 21 walks in 40.2 innings, 4.6 per nine innings. That's too high.

Trevor Rogers and Sergio Romo had each pitched in three of the previous four days, and Sam Dyson is on the injured list, so the Twins needed somebody to take care of the final innings. May came through. It would be a bit help to the Twins if he continues.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Perez, May and Magill

A win is a win; the standings don't add or deduct for style. That said, the Twins are fortunate they were playing a bad team Tuesday, because it really was easy to see them losing that one.

Start with Martin Perez. In some ways, the lefty wasn't all that bad. He struck out seven in his five innings, and more than 62 percent of his pitches were strikes.

On the other hand, he walked three, threw a first pitch strike to only 11 of the 24 men he faced, served up a fat cutter to a top-notch slugger with two on, and kept handing the lead back to the Mariners.

Four runs in five innings is ... not a quality start. Perez hasn't had one of them since May 17. In his three starts since then, his ERA has ballooned from 2.89 to 3.97. (The Twins have gone 2-1 in those three starts anyway.)

Close the carping with Trevor May, who found himself on the mound in the ninth inning for the first time in more than a month. He created a jam right away, allowing singles to the first two Mariners hitters, and needed a generous umpire's strike call to get his first out -- after which it was pop up and fly ball and and game over.

May thus became the sixth Twin to record a save this season: Nine for Blake Parker, six for Taylor Rogers, and one each for Ryne Harper, Trevor Hildenberger, Mike Morin and May. The roleless bullpen rolls on.

The use of May as the closer du jour was a mild surprise. Rogers, clearly the Twins' best reliever, hadn't pitched since Thursday. Parker, frequently if erroneously called the Twins closer by the FSN broadcasters, hadn't pitched since Friday.

But manager Rocco Baldelli called on May for his first real save opportunity of the season.  Rogers, it turned out, was unavailable with a stiff back; if anybody inquired postgame why Parker was passed over, the reply wasn't tweeted out.

Baldelli did address Matt Magill -- who retired all three men he faced and got credit for the win -- during the televised portion of his postgame scrum, praising the righty's stuff.

It was Magill's first good outing in some time. In his previous three appearances he allowed 10 runs while getting just four outs and inflated his ERA from 1.35 to 6.60.  Those are the kind of results that got Hildenberger shipped back to Triple A, and they had me surmising a few days ago that Magill was pitching himself off the roster.

Not so. I don't know where Magill ranks in Baldelli's bullpen hierarchy these days, and that hierarchy probably changes for no discernible reason anyway, but he got the ball in the eighth inning of a one two-run game Tuesday. He clearly remains in Baldelli's mix.

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Delving into the bullpen depth

I intended to make today's post about something other than bullpen usage, which has been a pretty steady topic here.

But then Monday's game happened, and guess what? Bullpen usage played a pretty significant role.

And it starts with the starting pitcher. Jake Odorizzi couldn't get through the sixth. This is who he is as a pitcher. This is his sixth role in a major league rotation, and he not only has zero complete games, he's only completed seven innings 10 times. When he starts, the bullpen is going to pitch a substantial portion of the game. So the Twins had to piece together 10 outs, and ideally do so without using Trevor Hildenberger or Taylor Rogers, who were used hard during the weekend.

* Trevor May got the last out of the sixth. He was wild -- eight pitches, just three strikes. And since he threw 27 pitches on Sunday, he was just in to get the one out. Rocco Baldelli would probably have preferred skipping him too.

* Ryne Harper got the seventh inning with a five-run lead and the meat of the Astros lineup coming up. Carlos Correa hit a three-run homer. Harper's ERA rose from zero to 2.89. Harper, who got ten outs in his previous outing and had therefore been idle in the Baltimore series, threw 24 pitches to get through the seventh, so he didn't come out for the eighth.

*Adalberto Mejia got the eighth after the Twins kicked the lead back up to four. He didn't pitch in the Baltimore series either, but not because of heavy useage. I don't think Baldelli is eager to give Mejia high leverage innings, but the alternatives weren't attractive, and it was the bottom of the Houston lineup. Mejia got though the eighth unscathed, but it took him 20 pitches.

* With just three outs to go, Blake Parker, after a weekend off with a virus, got the call for the ninth. He gave up a hit but needed just 14 pitches to close it out. Not an official save, but he probably would have pitched with a 10-run lead.

I don't know that Monday really changed anything I believe about this team, or at least this bullpen.

The Twins still need more from May than he's provided. The three relievers not in Baldelli's "big four" of Hildenberger, May, Parker and Rogers are still prioritized Harper, Mejia and Tyler Duffey. I didn't expect Harper to put up zeros all season, and at least this crooked number didn't cost him the game, but it didn't encourage Baldelli to increase his role, either.

The bottom line on Monday: The hitters got enough runs for the weaker half of the bullpen to get late outs.



Saturday, September 8, 2018

Contemplating Trevor May

Trevor May was credited with the win Friday night. This gives the big righty a 4-1 record in 15 appearances for the Twins.

Plus he has four holds -- save-situation leads turned over to the next reliever. Nine quasi-decisions in 15 games suggests that Paul Molitor has not shied away from giving May game-crucial innings.

May has allowed seven earned runs since his call-up during the sell-off in late July, four of them in an ill-fated "opening" assignment in Houston. He also -- impressive ratios alert -- has walked three and struck out 24 in 17.1 innings.

May is, from all appearances, recovering well from his 2017 Tommy John surgery. What he hasn't done -- and this is unusual in Molitor's bullpens -- is work back-to-back games. This makes sense: He was out all of 2017, and 2018 is a season that combines actual game work with rehab. Molitor is protecting him with usage limitations.

Which means his future is wide open once again. Come 2019, May could return to a starting role. He might get a more prominent slot in late-inning relief. Or he could remain essentially where he is, working in the middle of games but more frequently.

I'd like to see him get another opportunity as a starting pitcher. But that's based on the assumption that he can be more than a five-and-fly guy, and he wasn't in his half-season as a starter in 2015.

There is a substantial difference between 30 starts, 150 innings -- five innings a start -- and 30 starts, 200 innings -- a bit less than seven innings a start. If May can do the latter, he should be in the rotation. If it's the former, he may have more value in the bullpen.


Thursday, August 9, 2018

Trevor Hildenberger and a too-thin bullpen

Forty-some years ago whoever The Sporting News had as its correspondent for the then-California Angels referred constantly to that team's bullpen as "the Arson Squad." It's rare today to see a relief ace called a "fireman," but you get the idea.

Trevor Hildenberger today is more an arsonist than a fireman. Wednesday marked three straight appearances for him with a home run allowed. I won't pretend to know what the problem is; I know there's a problem.

Underlying the Hildenberger-specific problem that's leading to all the long balls is one of roster construction. The Twins have too many bullpen guys Paul Molitor doesn't want to use in game situations -- like the ninth inning of a tied game, which was the situation Wednesday when Hildenberger served up his most recent tater.

Fernando Rodney and Taylor Rogers, yes. Beyond that, with the trades of Zach Duke and Ryan Pressly ... the abyss.

Hildenberger is the favored arm of the rest of the pen partly because he has had some success, partly because he's (presumably) sound and partly because he's right handed.

Gabriel Moya is getting some work as a second lefty; essentially Rogers has moved into Duke's role as the favored lefty and Moya has moved into Rogers' old role. Fine.

Trevor May -- who did pitch Wednesday -- is in a rehab season after his Tommy John surgery. I assume Molitor wants to avoid using May on consecutive days.

Addison Reed is supposed to be a bullpen factor, but he has pitched just twice since coming off the disabled list, on July 31 and Aug 4. If he needs that much rest between outings, he probably shouldn't be active.

Matt Magill -- another guy who did pitch Wednesday -- has been pigeonholed as a long man for much of the season. Molitor has been reluctant to use him late in games, and nine of his first 25 appearances came with leads or deficits of more than four runs.

And Oliver Drake -- I haven't the slightest notion what he and his 7.31 ERA (compiled on a major league record five teams, including the Twins) is doing on this roster. I do know what he isn't doing, and that's pitching.

At least the overmatched Matt Belisle is off the active roster -- not DFA'd, but on the disabled list. This means we will probably get another dose of him next month at the latest. Oh joy.


Friday, August 3, 2018

The road forward

Every other Thursday I do a half-hour segment on KMSU, a public radio station affiliated with Minnesota State University, Mankato, talking Twins with station director Jim Gullickson and, most weeks, Mark Halverson, a local attorney, KMSU host and Twins ticket holder.

I was, I fear, more incoherent than usual during Thursday's segment, and never more so than when Gully asked if we were going to see a bunch of "fresh faces" the rest of the season. So I'll try again, this time with the ability to rewrite a sentence before exposing it to the public.

It depends on what is a "fresh" face. The Twins -- and pretty much every other team -- have a lot of roster churn, particularly among the pitchers. Is Gabriel Moya -- who had two brief stints in the Twins bullpen earlier and was recalled to take Zach Duke's spot in the bullpen -- a fresh face? Is veteran infielder Logan Forsythe, who has as of this morning one at-bat in a Twins uniform, a fresh face?

In essense, the Twins have replaced:


  • Eduardo Escobar at third base with Miguel Sano
  • Brian Dozier at second base with Forsythe
  • Lance Lynn in the starting rotation with Aldaberto Mejia
  • Zach Duke as a lefty reliever with Moya
  • Ryan Pressly as a righty reliever with Trevor May


Forsythe is merely a placeholder. I'll probably write something about the Twins' second base options soon -- it may even be the Monday print column next week -- but I'm not giving anything away here by dismissing Forsythe as a contender for the job in 2019.

May is rehabbing from Tommy John; these next two months give the Twins a chance to evaluate his future role if any. Mejia is out of options next season; he is auditioning for a role in the back of the 2019 rotation. Moya -- the hope is that he can be a younger version of Duke, a reliable LOOGY out of the bullpen.

And of course, Sano. He's supposed to be a franchise cornerstone. He has been anything but in 2018. The Twins desperately need to get him right. Sano is not a fresh face, but the Twins hope these final two months are a fresh start.


Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Some minor notes

Some of us have been anticipating the return of Trevor May to the major league club at some point this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery.

Such a return seems farther away than I expected. May has had command issues -- which is fairly common at this point in the rehab process -- and is now on the disabled list at Triple A Rochester with shoulder inflammation. 

---

One aspect of the addition of Taylor Motter to the Twins organization -- and the retention of Gregorio Petit -- is that Taylor Featherston got pushed out. The Twins released the light-hitting infielder the other day.

Featherston's had some major league time with three different clubs, and the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent over the winter and had him in training camp. But he didn't hit at all in Rochester, and with Nick Gordon now at Triple A and Petit back in Rochester, Featherston was redundant.

---

I thought last winter that the Twins would have to push top prospect Royce Lewis to high A sooner rather than later because of Wander Javier, a Dominican shortstop of Lewis' age who figured to move up to Cedar Rapids this year. You can't play both at short on the same club, and both need the repetitions at the position,

The problem solved itself, and not in a good way for Javier, who developed shoulder issues early in camp and is now out for the season after surgery on his labrum. He's expected back in time for next spring training.

Lewis has had some ups and downs in the Midwest League, including some knee discomfort, but he's expected to get promoted to high A Fort Myers soon. If, like me, you put off going to Cedar Rapids in the first half of the MWL season, you are likely to miss not only Lewis but Alex Kirilloff, the Twins 2016 first round pick. The outfielder, who missed all of 2017, is hitting .333/.391/.607 for the Kernels.

Friday, June 8, 2018

Notes, quotes and comment

Trevor May, rehabbing from last spring's Tommy John surgery, apparently ran out of time on his rehab assignment. On Thursday the Twins essentially swapped him and Jason Castro's roster status -- Castro went on the 60-day DL and May came off -- and optioned May to Triple A.

May's rehab is officially complete, but he's not ready for the majors yet. He appeared in six minor league games, four of them starts, on two levels during his rehab assignment, and struck out 20 hitters in 18 innings. He also walked 12, which tells us a lot about where he's at. 

---

Pedro Martinez is a hellva comp for any young pitcher, but last night, as MLB Network was showing highlights of Jose Berrios' complete game earlier in the day, the Hall of Famer said: He reminds me of me as a young pitcher.

I can see that in a few ways -- short righties with a big fastball and imposing breaking stuff. What ultimately made Martinez great was his complete mastery of the changeup. Few power pitchers develop that pitch as well as Martinez did. It's no insult to Berrios to observe that his change isn't nearly as effective.

---

I listened briefly to the Twins radio broadcast while walking the dog and turned it off during a Dan Gladden rant against analytics that booth visitor Tim Laudner was subtly encouraging. First Gladden complained that the Twins based some draft picks more heavily on analytics than on eyeball scouting. Then he said he'd like to see a team turn its baseball ops over to old school guys. Laudner agreed, at which point I turned it off.

The old-school had its run. Its time as expired. We've seen what happens to old-school GMs in the era of analytics. Ruben Amaro Jr in Philadelphia. Tony LaRussa-Dave Stewart in Arizona. Terry Ryan in Minnesota. They get beat, and they get fired. Deliberate, defiant ignorance is a losing strategy.

I doubt that when Gladden needs a physician he seeks one who figures that everything he needs to know was known in John McGraw's era, or even Branch Rickey's.

Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Vogelsong's last note?

Ryan Vogelsong had
spent his entire career
with the Giants and
Pirates.

The Twins on Tuesday released veteran Ryan Vogelsong, a non-roster invitee, at his request after informing him that he would not win the fifth starter job.

This comes a week before his contractual opt-out date and theoretically gives him a better opportunity to find a new team. Which seems unlikely. He's 39 and had a 7.27 ERA this spring. The Twins signed him with an appreciation for his resume -- rotation piece for two World Series winners, an All-Star team -- and probably really wanted him to emerge with the job, but they have better options.

Still in the running for the rotation: Aldaberto Mejia, Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Justin Haley and (supposedly) Nick Tepesch. Tepesch, another non-roster invitee, will get his first start of the exhibition season Thursday; that was to have been Vogelsong's.  Haley, the Rule 5 guy, will piggy back with Tepesch.

In other Twins pitching news Tuesday:

  • The Twins announced that Ryan O'Rourke would open the season on the disabled list. He's in competition for that is presumed to be one of two bullpen jobs ticketed for left-handers.
  • Non-roster invitees Jake Reed and Raul Fernandez were reassigned to minor league comp.
  • Berrios will not start tonight's WBC championship game for Puerto Rico against Team USA. It will be Seth Lugo of the Mets.  
  • Tuesday was Craig Breslow's contractual opt-out date. He's still in camp, and general manager Thad Levine said he had not been added to the 40-man roster. Presumably that will come.
  • Trevor May said on Twitter that he would have his Tommy John surgery today. 
  • Glen Perkins and the training staff is to meet with the decision makers this week to discuss the future of his rehab program.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Contemplating Trevor May

Trevor May's '"pars
defect" was missed
repeatedly over the
past 13 months.
Trevor May, it turns out, has been trying to pitch for more than a year with a stress fracture in his back.

That had to hurt. It certainly didn't work. He had a 5.27 ERA in 42.2 innings. He gave up seven homers. He was charged with 10 wild pitches. His walk rate rose sharply.

As did his strikeout rate. The Twins had counted on May during the offseason to be significant part of their 2016 bullpen, and when he was relatively pain-free (which wasn't often) he was effective.

I wrote recently of Kyle Gibson that his regression this year was one of the biggest reasons for the failure of the 2016 Twins. So was the bullpen collapse. The late innings foursome of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, May and Casey Fien was expected to be a strength. It was exactly the opposite.

The plan now is for May to return to being a starting pitcher. Whether that plan survives the arrival of the new regime is, obviously, unknown.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

May's back is back

Trevor May came off
the DL on July 5 and
had a 2.87 ERA since.
The Twins put Trevor May on the disabled list Wednesday morning with a repeat of his back problems.

This is the third time May has been sidelined by back issues since the Twins put him in the bullpen after the All-Star break last season. As one who has dealt with a herniated disc for some 18 years I'm a bit wary of concluding that May's bullpen assignment is responsible for the back problems, but the possible connection can't be overlooked.

But reinstalling May as a starter once this flareup is resolved isn't all that simple. Part of the reason he went to the bullpen, after all, is that the Twins had a bunch of other starters with contracts or potential. The departure of Ricky Nolasco didn't clear any room, because Hector Santiago took his place.

The Twins rotation now has Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey and Santiago, none of whom is a free-agent to be. Phil Hughes is expected back next year as well, and there's Tommy Milone as well.

May makes eight potential starters for the next general manager to sort through, and there is limited roster flexibility involved. Pitching surpluses have a way of becoming pitching shortages, of course -- two of these eight are on the disabled list right now, obviously -- but what I thought obvious last offseason remains true today: Somebody's got to go.

Friday, July 22, 2016

Notes, quotes and comment

Well, it didn't take long to find out who the new long man in the Twins bullpen is. Tyler Duffey didn't get out of the third inning in Fenway (the Red Sox can do that to a pitcher), and Michael Tonkin was the first man out. He got as many outs as Duffey did (seven) and yielded five fewer runs.

Trevor May got two innings in, and didn't fare all that well (three hits, four runs). I keep talking about switching him back to the rotation, but right now I suspect there's still something physically wrong with him.

---

I highly recommend this piece from David Ortiz about his early days with the Twins today on the Players Tribune site. I almost hate to link to it because I'm sure I'm going to steal some of these stories for the Sunday Funnies this offseason, and why spoil the jokes now?

Well, because Ortiz has a serious point to make early on about Latin players and the cultural-language gap.

---

Advance warning for those of you who visit this site daily expecting to see something new. Not happening Saturday. If the Twins make a trade Friday (or Saturday) I'll comment on it here Monday. I already have the Monday print column written (on the firing of Terry Ryan) and a Pic of the Week lined up to post Sunday morning, but I'm traveling this weekend and have decided to forgo packing the laptop.

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, right?

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

The roster shuffle

No holiday in Twins transactions this past weekend.




I commented Monday on the Jepsen move. Let's sort through the rest ...

All told, the Twins have cut down from 13 pitchers to 12 on the active roster. That might suggest that they've grown comfortable with the starters' ability to go six-plus innings, but I suspect that this has at least as much to do with the All Start break coming in less than a week.

May: I suggested in the Monday print column that the Twins might be well advised to return May to the starting rotation. Right now they have every slot filled, and Jose Berrios is probably ahead of May if a rotation spot opens. May rehabbed for relief work, and that's the plan.

Supposedly May has shortened his stride during his delivery to reduce the strain on his back and hips. We'll see how well that works.

Plouffe: Out, they say, for three to four weeks with a cracked rib. In the short term, it opens third base for Miguel Sano, but it also probably keeps Plouffe from being traded this month. Which means that, when Plouffe is healthy again (or at least sound enough to play) there will be two third basemen on the roster.

At least this will give his wonky groin a chance to heal.

Mastroianni: It was easy to forget that Mastro was officially on the active roster, but he was hitless in nine official at-bats. He has the right to opt out of his contract, but he's expected to forgo that and remain in the organization.

Rosario: Optioned out because pitchers were exploiting his inability to gauge the strike zone, he hit .319 and slugged .538 in Triple A. He also drew just seven walks, which suggests that Triple A pitchers aren't good enough to exploit his free-swinging ways -- which further suggests that he's going to have to learn at the major league level.

Question: Where do his at-bats come from? He played left field on Sunday and Monday. Robbie Grossman was the DH in one game and sat the other. Presuming Byron Buxton and Max Kepler are to be in the lineup (and they should), Rosario and Grossman will be dueling for left field time.

Vargas:  The big switch-hitter was, according to the radio guys Sunday, leading the International League in RBIs when called up. Statistical luddite Dan Gladden finds that significant. Those of us with a better understanding of how to interpret the stat line don't.

This might be Vargas' last chance with the Twins. They have plenty of DH alternatives, and I have to believe Byung Ho Park still ranks ahead of Vargas in their long-range thinking. And the DH slot offers a chance to feed at-bats to one of the young outfielders, so his opportunities may be limited.

Boshers: Never thought I'd be irritated to see him sent down, but he has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts. His demotion flies in the face of the Greg McMichael Rule (If you get outs, they'll find a role for you.) He got outs, and he's going back to Rochester.

For now. He'll be back before August, whether to fill a gap created by a trade, an injury or because they need to go back to 13 pitchers. Boshers lost the job not because he failed, but because he was a spot with roster flexibility.


Saturday, June 11, 2016

Notes, quotes and comment (draft day 2)

The Twins opened the second day of the draft by taking Griffin Jax, a right-handed pitcher from the Air Force Academy, with the 93rd overall pick (third round).


Deron Johnson is the Twins scouting director, which means he's the guy making the call in the rapid-fire rounds of the draft's second and third days. 

Obviously the Twins like Jax, who apparently draws the Brad Radke comp mentioned above by having a good change up. I have no basis to judge the talent, but I don't particularly care for pursing somebody from a service academy.

My thinking is related to a hoary Branch Rickey rule. He refused to sign a player who was in medical or divinity school on the basis that the world needs physicians and ministers more than it needs ballplayers. My take on the service academies is: The nation has a deal with these students. We the people provide a no-charge, high-level college education, and we get well-trained military officers. I object to the notion that they can/should be encouraged/allowed to walk away from that bargain three years in, with a heavy public investment in that bargain.

Berandino reports that Jax "will petition for a deferment of his five-year active military commitment, and the Twins are hopeful that he will be able to convert that to the reserves at least."

Maybe so. That doesn't make it right.

---

I predicted in Friday's post that Trevor May would go on the disabled list. He did. So, too, did Phil Hughes, who took a wicked liner off his leg. 

Kyle Gibson was reactivated off the disabled list; he's to start today's game against the Red Sox. And J.T. Chargois was called up.

I've mentioned Chargois a few times this year as somebody I thought should be here. The reports on his callup gave a good reason for the Twins to have gone slow: He has only once pitched on consecutive days this year. That's by design as his continues to return from Tommy John surgery.

Still, I'm glad to see him in the majors. He is a absolute power arm. It's time to start seeing some of them in Minnesota.

---

ESPN's Keith Law, in a chat Friday about the first day of the draft, said he hasn't seen Twins second-round pick Ben Rortvedt himself, but that the word he has from scouts is that he won't stick behind the plate.

The Twins suggested otherwise on Thursday, and time will tell. He'll catch until he convinces the Twins he shouldn't catch.

The Twins did take another potential backstop in the ninth round Friday, Mitchell Kranson of California Berkeley. Apparently he played mostly third base for Cal (and hit third), but the Twins intend to put him behind the dish. That parallels the career path of Terry Steinbach, who played third base for the Gophers and converted to catcher after signing with the A's. 

May it work that well with Kranson.


Friday, June 10, 2016

Notes, quotes and comment (Draft day 1)

High school outfielders and college pitchers. As a general rule, that's what the Twins take in the first round of the draft.

This year, it was a prep outfielder, Alex Kirilloff of Plum, Pennsylvania, which is near Pittsburgh. He's a left-handed hitter with, according to the scouting reports, big power and a right field profile. Presumably he'll sign (he does have a college commitment to Liberty University), and also presumably he's five years or so away from showing up on the major league roster. He was the 15th overall pick.

Minnesota had three other picks on the first day of the draft:

56th pick: prep catcher Ben Rortvedt of Verona, Wisconsin. He was the first high school catcher taken. The ideal policy is to take the best player available, but the Twins system certainly needs catchers. MLB.com and Baseball America each ranked him in the 50s for this draft pool.

73rd pick: prep shortstop Jose Miranda of Puerto Rico. Not yet 18, right handed hitter, likely to get moved to second or third at some point.

74th pick: prep outfielder Akil Baddoo of Georgia. Some speed, some power, or so they said on the MLB Network draft show.

All high schoolers, no collegians for the Twins on Day 1. It will be years if ever for any of them to reach the majors. But they're all guys to dream on, and dreams are what Twins fans have to lean on right now.

---

Trevor May faced three hitters Wednesday. Wild pitch, double, double, single. Then came a homer off the next pitcher, and May was charged with three earned runs in zero innings.

May's ERA is now 6.07. I rather expect him to go on the disabled list.

---

Speaking of bad ERAs ...


---

#OldFriend Justin Morneau signed with the Chicago White Sox and was immediately placed on the disabled list. He had elbow surgery during the winter and says he hopes to be ready after the All Star break.

Even with the White Sox, I wish him well. (It's easier to do so knowing that the Twins aren't contending for anything.)

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Contemplating Trevor May

The Twins won in 11 innings Tuesday night. Paul Molitor went through seven relievers after yet another short start  (this one from Pat Dean), eight pitchers in all, and said after the game it felt like 18.

Eight was enough. I'm sufficiently old to remember some Orioles teams in the 1970s that carried eight pitchers on the entire roster for weeks at a time. Earl Weaver used to say of pitching staffs that eight was too many and 12 was not enough -- meaning that if the starters were effective he didn't need more than three relievers, and if the starters didn't give him seven and eight innings time and again, the 'pen would be overworked.

For Paul Molitor, 12 is not enough. Thirteen may not be either, but there are limits.

With so many relievers trotting in from the bullpen, it was pretty obvious that Molitor was avoiding Trevor May. May hasn't appeared in more than a week -- his last outing came June 1, and was his fourth appearance in six days. Despite the layoff, May entered Tuesday tied for ninth in the AL in games pitched with 27. He's been worked hard.




Sure he will,

I've started wondering if and when May will be pulled out of the bullpen role and redeployed to the rotation. The Twins insisted this spring even as they assigned him to relief that they view him as a long-term starter, they just didn't have an opening in a veteran rotation for him.

That veteran rotation has been awful, and the Twins have started nine different pitchers already, but none of them have been May.

But May has displayed command/control issues. He's walked 3.4 men per nine innings, and he's thrown six wild pitches in less than 30 innings. That's not a stat set that suggests he can get through six or seven innings on a regular basis, and that was an issue for him when he was in the rotation for the first half of 2015.

However, nobody else is getting into the seventh every time out either. This ain't an Earl Weaver pitching staff.


Saturday, May 7, 2016

Roster revamp, part 1 (and HBPs)

The only action Brian Dozier (hamstring) saw Friday
was during the bench-clearing late in the game after Chicago's
Jose Abreu (79) was hit by a pitch.
Friday's roster shuffle wasn't exactly what I was anticipating. Tommy Milone and Casey Fien may have been waived, but the waiver period had not expired as of Friday (that will be this afternoon), so they were still on the roster.

Not on the roster because they were "designated for assignment," a move that does immediately take them off the 40-  and 25-man rosters, were J.R. Graham and Ryan O'Rourke, a pair of marginal relievers. Catcher John Ryan Murphy, as expected, was optioned out.

Ervin Santana was activated from the disabled list -- he starts today -- and the Twins selected the contracts of outfielder Darin Mastroianni and catcher Juan Centeno,

So three out and three in on Friday, and presumably three out and three in today, as shortstop Eduardo Escobar got hurt in Friday's game and is apparently headed to the disabled list. Jorge Polanco was pulled from the Rochester game and presumably will take Escobar's roster spot. He might even play a bit this time up.

I'm not sure who will replace Milone and Fien on the roster when their waiver period closes, although J.T. Chargois is a pretty good guess for one slot. Considering the suddenly dilapidated state of the Angels rotation in particular, I can't imagine Milone clearing waivers (two of the Angels starters went on the DL Friday with elbow miseries; one will have Tommy John and the other might). Fien is another matter. I suspect the Twins will retain him in Rochester. (For that matter, I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke got claimed by another team; I don't Graham will be leaving the organization.) We'll see soon how all this shakes out.

But other than Chargois and the return of their opening day starter, this (likely) shuffle of six roster slots probably doesn't help the now 8-21 team much. Losing the starting shortstop certainly won't improve things.

You compare the records of Murphy and Centeno, and there's no reason to think Centeno is going to be an upgrade. Even with Murphy's 3-for-40 2016 added in, he's a .242 hitter in 302 career at-bats and turns 25 next week. Centeno is 26 and a .164 hitter in 66 career at-bats. It's an understandable move in the short-term, but Murphy is still the better bet to be an impact catcher.

.---

Speaking of impacts, the Twins and White Sox engaged in a bit of hit-me, hit-you foolishness Friday. The White Sox plunked Byung Ho Park, and Trevor May responded by putting his fastball in Jose Abreu's ribs. That cleared the dugouts, but the only ejection was of the Chicago manager. Then the Sox hit Kurt Suzuki, who simply went to first base without the Abreu histrionics.

I don't know that the Sox were throwing at Park, although it's possible that somebody took offense to the big guy's swings. But certainly May was retaliating, and just as certainly Sukuki got hit in retaliation for that. Foolishness, as I said, but ... the Twins were getting blown out again, they were headed for 8-21, there were two dead men walking in the bullpen. This is a frustrated and embarrassed team right now, and frustrated and embarrassed people will do foolish things. The Sox don't have that excuse for their foolishness.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Oh what a relief it is

Trevor May's batting
average allowed as
a starter in 2015 was
.290, as a reliever .250.
Some notable things are happening in regards to the Twins opening bullpen these days.

First: Trevor May was told Wednesday by Paul Molitor that he's going to open 2016 in the bullpen.

This is hardly a surprise. As I saw it months ago, May ranks behind seven other starters -- Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Tyler Duffey and Tommy Milone, the five who comprised the rotation down the stretch last year, plus the well-paid Ricky Nolasco and prize prospect Jose Berrios.

Terry Ryan insisted Wednesday that the Twins still view May as a future starter; it's just that he fits better on this staff as a reliever. And maybe May will be a starter, but I'm pretty sure of this: He won't get that chance if the Twins keep throwing eight-figure salaries at veteran starters.

Second: Michael Tonkin had a rough outing Wednesday night. Given the ninth inning against the Red Sox with a seven-run lead, the lanky righty struggled to get out of the inning. There was a misplay behind him, and a dribbler for an infield hit, and he did strike out two men, but there was also a drive over the right fielder's head and a hit batter and a lot of pitches. 

Tonkin is out of options. He's making it easy for the Twins to decide to expose him to waivers. 

Third: Tonight's exhibition game (at Sarasota against the Orioles) is going to be a bullpen game. 


That's a collection of arms on the bubble, including four lefties (Rogers, Abad, Darnell, O'Rourke). Hughes and May will stay in Fort Myers and pitch in a minor league game on a side field. Which makes sense. They are getting ready for the season. The guys going to Sarasota tonight are pitching for jobs.

Friday, November 6, 2015

From the Handbook: Using the changeup

A fifth of Kyle
Gibson's pitches in
2015 were changeups.
Thursday's post focused on Phil Hughes' ever-changing repertoire and mentioned Neil Allen pushing for more changeups from the Twins pitchers.

As compiled by Baseball Info Systems and published in the Bill James Handbook 2016, here's the percentage of changeups thrown in 2015 as compared to 2014 by five other Twins starters:

Kyle Gibson: 20 percent in 2015, 13 percent in 2014
Trevor May: 19 percent and 16 percent
Tommy Milone: 25 percent and 24 percent
Ricky Nolasco*: 6 percent and 10 percent
Mike Pelfrey*: 14 percent and 9 percent

*Nolasco and Pelfrey don't throw a "changeup" as defined by BIS. They use a splitter instead, and these numbers are for their splitters. Pelfrey's second number is from 2013, since he barely pitched in 2014.

What can we take from this? Pretty clearly there was a greater emphasis with Neil Allen/Paul Molitor on changing speeds than there had been under Rick Anderson/Ron Gardenhire. Milone barely changed, but he was already throwing his changeup almost a quarter of his pitches. Nolasco dropped off pretty sharply throwing his splitter, and I suspect his forearm/elbow issues had something to do with that.

Gibson was obviously a major change, from 13 percent changeups to 20 percent, and it appears to have been a significant pitch for him. BIS says he had the fifth best opposition OPS off his changeup in the American League (.545, rankings based on at least 100 batters faced).