Good-bye, Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey spent three seasons with the Twins, or two
seasons if you don't count the year he spent mostly on the
disabled list, and went 11-27, 4.94. This got him a sizable raise.

There has been quite a few eye-popping contracts for free agent pitchers in the past few days. Mike Pelfrey's two-year deal at $8 million per with Detroit is far from the richest of them, but it's noteworthy in its own right.

Big Pelf is a back-of-the-rotation arm who has qualified for the ERA title once in the past four seasons,which he did with two innings to spare last season. He did go at least seven full innings in 10 of his 30 starts for the Twins; he also had 10 starts in which he didn't work five full innings. 

I expected his departure but was nevertheless half afraid that the Twins would re-sign him. They don't really have any place to put him in their rotation, but that doesn't always stop their decision makers.

This tweet caught my eye:

Avila on Pelfrey: "I'm not going to throw our analytics guys under the bus. This wasn't an analytics signing, it was a scout signing."

— Chris McCosky (@cmccosky) December 7, 2015

Avila, to be clear, is the Detroit general manager. And yeah, I'd bet there isn't an analytics department in the game that recommended signing Pelfrey. Scouts see a moving fastball with velocity; the stats show a one-pitch wonder with a dismal strikeout rate. 

There's a line of thought that Pelfrey would be a better fit in a relief role. He's resisted that notion in the past, and it appears that the Tigers view him as a starter. Which, as a fan of a divsion rival, suits me just fine.

From the Handbook: Using the changeup

A fifth of Kyle
Gibson's pitches in
2015 were changeups.

Thursday's post focused on Phil Hughes' ever-changing repertoire and mentioned Neil Allen pushing for more changeups from the Twins pitchers.

As compiled by Baseball Info Systems and published in the Bill James Handbook 2016, here's the percentage of changeups thrown in 2015 as compared to 2014 by five other Twins starters:

Kyle Gibson: 20 percent in 2015, 13 percent in 2014
Trevor May: 19 percent and 16 percent
Tommy Milone: 25 percent and 24 percent
Ricky Nolasco*: 6 percent and 10 percent
Mike Pelfrey*: 14 percent and 9 percent

*Nolasco and Pelfrey don't throw a "changeup" as defined by BIS. They use a splitter instead, and these numbers are for their splitters. Pelfrey's second number is from 2013, since he barely pitched in 2014.

What can we take from this? Pretty clearly there was a greater emphasis with Neil Allen/Paul Molitor on changing speeds than there had been under Rick Anderson/Ron Gardenhire. Milone barely changed, but he was already throwing his changeup almost a quarter of his pitches. Nolasco dropped off pretty sharply throwing his splitter, and I suspect his forearm/elbow issues had something to do with that.

Gibson was obviously a major change, from 13 percent changeups to 20 percent, and it appears to have been a significant pitch for him. BIS says he had the fifth best opposition OPS off his changeup in the American League (.545, rankings based on at least 100 batters faced).

Here comes E. Santana, 80 games late

Alex Meyer had
two major league
outings and didn't
fare well (ERA
16.88).

Friday's loss, so illustrative of the flaws in the 2015 Twins, dropped their record to 42-38. That adds up to 80, so Ervin Santana's steroid suspension is now fully served.

The Twins shipped Alex Meyer back to Triple A to make room for Santana on the 25-man roster. They outrighted minor league veteran Doug Bernier to make room for Santana on the 40-man roster. (Bernier could have refused the designation and become a free agent, but probably figured that the demand for 35-year-old utility infielders with 83 major league at-bats would be light.)

How the Twins will make room for Santana in the rotation remains unknown. The demotion of Meyer suggests that the Twins will not demote one of the current starters (in order of rotation, Phil Hughes, Trevor May, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey). Which would make the options:

• Six-man rotation
• A trade
• Shifting one of the five to the bullpen

There appears little appetite among the decision makers for the six-man rotation, and I agree, in large part because at least two of the five rely on their two-seam fastballs (aka sinker) and, theoretically at least, such pitchers tend to do poorly on long rest.

A trade may well be the ultimate answer, especially if Ricky Nolasco's ankle ever shows sign of improvement, but I'll be surprised if that happens promptly.

Which would leave the bullpen shift option, Regular readers can probably guess that I regard Pelfrey as the logical choice to move. It's not going to be Hughes or Gibson; Milone, as a soft-tossing lefty, is a poor fit for a relief role; May, despite the worst actual ERA of the five, has the best FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of the group.

Pelfrey had been slated for the bullpen at the end of spring training (despite his objections), until the Santana suspension was announced. His ERA in June was 5.35. with peripheral numbers that were just as ugly. And there remain observers, such as the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino, who believe Pelfrey's stuff will play better in the bullpen. (Berardino has repeatedly compared Pelfrey to Wade Davis, the Royal's wipe-out eighth-inning arm.)

Pelfrey starts today. We'll see if there are more starts in his future. I hope not, at least with the Twins.

Ervin Santana and the rotation logjam

Ervin Santana is in Rochester for the first of three planned "rehab" starts. (It doesn't make sense to me that PED suspensions are regarded as injuries, but there's a lot about the rule that aren't particularly logical.) He's eligible to pitch in the majors early next month somewhere around July 5, and as the highest-paid pitcher in club history, you can bet he's going to pitch.

We still have three weeks before Santana Day, and a lot can happen in three weeks, But let's ask ourselves: Who loses his spot in the rotation for Mr. #SmellBaseball?

Mike Pelfrey (5-3, 2.97) didn't get the win Thursday, but eight innings of one-run ball ain't bad, and he's having the best season of his career. I never imagined that he could do this, but I never imagined him with a usable changeup either. The Twins will either keep the pending free agent in the rotation or trade him, and the latter ain't happening in June.

Kyle Gibson (4-5, 3.33)  has outperformed his underlying numbers, and his ERA this month is an unimpressive 5.68. It's difficult to imagine the Twins pulling him from the rotation, but he's trending down.

Phil Hughes (4-6, 4.79) has been the Phil Hughes of Yankees days: Home run prone. He's surrendered 1.6 homers per nine innings this year, which is pretty much the rate he had his final two years with New York. But with his plump contract extension, the Twins will give him a long leash.

Trevor May (4-5, 4.26) has been the opposite of Gibson -- pitching better than his results. May's FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching -- is more than a run lower than his ERA. He has by far the best strikeout rate of the five current starters. Everything I think I know about pitching says May is the best pitcher in this rotation, but that may not save his job.

Tommy Milone (3-1, 3.67) keeps getting shafted. Last year he got bounced from Oakland's rotation when the A's traded for two veteran starters even though he was 6-3, 3.55; this year he got bounced from the Twins rotation early on and dominated International League hitters for a month waiting for an opening. He's the one lefty in the rotation and has a 2.37 ERA in three June starts.

Off in the wings is the injured Ricky Nolasco, another veteran with a lucrative paycheck. When he's going to be able to pitch is unknown, but he's another one whose contract is too fat to be marginalized.

This is the kind of thing generally called a good problem to have. But I suspect the "solution" will make matters worse.

The front office and the pitching surplus

I am increasingly being asked as I go around town: Are the Twins for real? The pessimist in me says no. I do not trust Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson's low strikeout rates. I am skeptical of Danny Santana's erratic defense. I am wary of Aaron Hicks' balsa-wood bat. I can go on with things to be concerned about: Torii Hunter's age, Joe Mauer's decline, a bullpen stuffed with mediocre track records.

And behind all that, I have come on some level to mistrust the front office. At the core of my pessimism is my sense that Terry Ryan and Co. will misread these first two months success.

Here's the thing: There are solutions available to almost all the pitfalls I see (Mauer's decline being the exception). I'm just not sure the organization is willing to take advantage of those solutions.

For example: The Twins at the moment have a surplus of starting pitchers. Tommy Milone has allowed one stinking earned run in four starts in Triple A, and there's no room for him in the rotation. Plus Ervin Santana is starting his second spring training in preparation for a return from his PED suspension. Plus it's hard to see from here what more J.O. Berrios has to do to move up the ladder.

This is a good problem to have, but it's still a problem; Milone cannot be happy about his current status, and at some point frustrating him will become counterproductive. It's also an opportunity. There are, or will be, deals to be made in the coming weeks. Starting pitchers are valuable commodities.

My fear is that Ryan will seek to extend Pelfrey rather than move him this summer. (On the other hand, Pelfrey is represented by Scott Boras, and Boras's clients seldom do midseason deals.)

Now, it's be clear about what I'm NOT saying. I'm not saying the Twins should be frantically trading Pelfrey (or Milone, or Ricky Nolasco) for the first offer they get. They can be, should be, patient. This pitching surplus is almost certainly temporary. Pitchers get hurt; that's almost a third certainty in life (behind death and taxes). Move one guy now, see another go down next week, and suddenly this excess has evaporated.

But they have to be willing to seize the opportunity when it's there. Ryan's often-laudable sense of loyalty (or determination to see his previous moves succeed) may need to be set aside to do that.

Contemplating Mike Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey threw
61 pitches on Sunday,
35 for strikes.

Mike Pelfrey made four starts in April. He was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in those four starts, and I was starting to reconcile myself to the idea that he is going to stick in the rotation.

I was even starting to consider seriously the notion that Pelfrey might attract trade interest from other teams -- and to fret that the front office might respond to such interest by looking to extend his contract, and to take solace in the reality that Pelfrey's agent is Scott Boras, who tends to avoid such things.

And then Pelfrey started Sunday and pitched like he was allergic to the strike zone. There's a longstanding mantra among pitching coaches -- work fast, throw strikes, change speeds. Pelfrey is habitually adverse to any of those principles. He certainly was on Sunday.

As I observed in the Monday print column, the Twins have six pitchers for five rotation spots right now, and a seventh (Ervin Santana) coming online in two months. Tommy Milone is the guy without a chair at the moment. I have believed all along that Milone is a better bet than Pelfrey. Their roster statuses make it easier for the Twins to go with Pelfrey. Games like Sunday will make it more difficult.

Staking his claim to a rotation berth

Mike Pelfrey allowed just one earned run in seven
innings Tuesday night. More striking: He struck out seven.

I've not been inclined to say nice things about the pitching of Mike Pelfrey. He has a long track record of, let us say, less than stellar results as a major league pitcher.

But I have to concede that he's been effective since getting a fresh shot in the rotation. Not merely better than I expected, but good. A 2.25 ERA is not to be sneered at.

Pelfrey's track record tells us that he's not that good. Few pitchers are. But even if his ERA rises a full run, it's a really strong figure. Which means he's not going anywhere.

His effectiveness creates a dilemma of sorts for Paul Molitor. When Ricky Nolasco comes off the disabled list, who comes out of the rotation?

I would like to see Trevor May remain in the rotation, but I expect he's going to lose out to the veterans, just as he did in spring training.

May he stick

Trevor May will
start the home opener.

Well, it took a suspension and an injury, but Trevor May winds up with a berth in the April starting rotation,

How long it lasts probably doesn't depend on him as much as it does on other people, specifically Mike Pelfrey.

The diagnosis on Ricky Nolasco's elbow is a mild inflammation that will presumably clear in the 15 days he'll spend on the disabled list, which is already down to 13. May figures to get two starts in that period. So will Pelfrey, who gets the ball today against the White Sox.

My preference should be obvious. May might have a future. Pelfrey doesn't. I'd much rather see May get a third start, and a fourth, and a fifth, and so on,

But management has twice made its preference known. Pelfrey ranks ahead of May. It seems likely that Pelfrey will have to fall on his face for May to remain once Nolasco is pronounced sound once more. Pelfrey is fully capable of that.

---

Nolasco had been slated to start the home opener. May will slide into his slot and pitch Monday before the full house at Target Field.

I find that noteworthy. Ron Gardenhire and Tom Kelly, I'm quite sure, would have shuffled the rotation to get a veteran into the opener. Their stated philosophy was that an inexperienced pitcher would be more susceptible to nerves.

It wouldn't have been that difficult for Paul Molitor to start May today or (more likely) Sunday and push Phil Hughes back to Monday. He chose instead to keep Hughes (and Pelfrey) on schedule.

On the Ervin Santana suspension

A sight we won't see for a while:
Ervin Santana throwing a pitch.

The loss of Ervin Santana to what is essentially a half-year's suspension -- 80 days of a 162-game season, plus the postseason should God drop everything else and the Twins reach the playoffs -- hurts the Twins.

What hurts worse is how management is filling the gap.

Santana said in a statement Friday that he doesn't know how the substance for which he tested positive -- specifically Stanozolol -- got into his system. You can regard me as overly gullible, but I think that's believable. He spent the offseason in his native Dominican Republic, and let's just say government regulations are laxer there than in the U.S. -- and we don't regulate supplements well at all. (Regulating supplements interfered with campaign donations.)

Accident or intentional, it doesn't matter. Santana is responsible, under the collective bargaining agreement, for what he puts in his body. 

Anyway, I'm just going to regard this as a three-month injury that will flare up again in October. He's a pitcher, and injuries happen to pitchers. He can't pitch.

What irks me is that the Twins have chosen to fill the rotation vacancy with Mike Pelfrey. Not Trevor May, not Alex Meyer, not Jose Berrios or somebody with actual talent. Mike Pelfrey, who is 12 percent under league average in ERA+ for his career and has been injured, awful or both for four straight years.

Ridiculous. Farcical. I would say this indicates that organization remains committed to veteran mediocrity, except that Pelfrey hasn't attained mediocrity in years. 

To fill the bullpen role that Pelfrey was supposed to occupy, the Twins called back Aaron Thompson, a LOOGY candidate who got sent out before fellow LOOGY candidate Caleb Thielbar was. Thompson doesn't really interest me much either -- I would much rather see Michael Tonkin or Ryan Pressly, and to heck with the left-handed specialists -- but the sixth or seventh arm in the bullpen isn't a high-leverage role. At least it shouldn't be. The way this organization is making decisions, who knows?

Mike Pelfrey and pitch nomenclature

For his career,
Mike Pelfrey has
an ERA+  12 percent
below league average.

I predicted in Monday's post that Mike Pelfrey would get the fifth slot in the starting rotation. I made that prediction on this basis:

• He's owed $5 million for this season, and the Twins will try to get something for the money.
• He apparently has a long warmup routine in the wake of his surgeries, which works against putting him in the bullpen. And
• The Twins have a well-established pattern of preferring veterans in the rotation to open the year, although it's possible Paul Molitor isn't wedded to that philosophy.

All that said, the tone of the reports after Pelfrey's outing Monday against the Phillies suggested that Tommy Milone and Trevor May are ahead of Pelfrey at this point. 

We'll see, I'll be surprised, still, if Pelfrey isn't in the opening rotation.

---

Pelfrey is well-known as a "sinker-slider guy." So is Kyle Gibson. Sinker-slider guys, by definition, don't have a good change-up; if a pitcher has that as well, he's not limited to sinkers and sliders. 

As part of Neil Allen's mission as pitching coach to emphasize the change-up, Pelfrey has been featuring something the stories about him typically call a "split-change." (In the piece linked to above, Molitor calls it a "split-finger.")

I have a theory on the difference between a "forkball" and a "split-finger fastball." The theory is that if the mindset is to throw the pitch hard (even though it won't have the velocity of a true fastball), you call it a split-finger fastball. The word fastball sets the attitude behind the pitch.

If the reporters are calling Pelfrey's new pitch a split-change, it's because that's what Pelfrey and Allen are calling it. Which suggests the obvious mindset behind this pitch. They want to see significant velocity separation from his other pitches.

The Twins had, since the mid-90s or so, downplayed or discouraged use of the splitter. I remember a spring when Carlos Silva showed up with a splitter. The first day the stories called it a splitter. The second day it was a forkball. By the end of the week it was a changeup. And in the end it was a nonfactor. Silva was a sinker-slider guy to the end of his career.

Which is what I expect will happen with Pelfrey and his new pitch. Obviously a good change would be his benefit, but he's 31 and hasn't mastered one yet. 

Time to get serious

The Twins announced Friday night that the Ervin Santana signing is official, so he passed his physical. Press conference this morning.

Also coming this morning, presumably, a player move to open a slot on the 40-man roster for the right-hander. The Twins have no shortage of marginal players on their 40-man roster, but it shouldn't be any secret what move will signal seriousness of purpose to me: Dumping Mike Pelfrey.

The story on the Twins website lists four candidates for the fifth starter job, and the first on the list is Pelfrey. (The others: Tommy Milone, Trevor May and Alex Meyer.) Rhett Bollinger may have ordered them by major league seniority or by salary, but naming Pelfrey first does mimic the order Terry Ryan used when listing candidates during a winter meetings interview.

And my reaction is: You cannot be serious. Saying Mike Pelfrey is a leading candidate for the starting rotation is letting the money talk.

Away back in 1987, when the Andy MacPhail-Tom Kelly regime was taking hold, the Twins made a trade late in spring training for Dan Gladden -- two minor leaguers for the outfielder.  Mickey Hatcher was the incumbent left fielder. He had a goofy persona and hit for average, but he had no power, little speed and no real defensive value. He also had a $750,000 contract, which was pretty fair coin in 1987 baseball.

The Twins released him and ate the contract. That was a move that told me: These guys are serious.

It's not a fully new regime now -- new manager, same GM. But canning Pelfrey would send a similar message as the 1987 canning of Hatcher: Merit will rule, not the contract.

I don't expect it to happen. I don't expect it this month. I don't expect it in spring training. Maybe in May. I don't expect it, because I don't think they're serious enough yet. Prove me wrong.

Shuffling the roster

Jason Kubel choose
not to report to Triple-A
Rochester.

A few Twins roster notes to clear out of the way:

* Jason Kubel cleared waivers and declined a minor-league assignment. So the Twins will release him.

Kubel was designated for assignment to make room for Kendrys Morales. This may be it for Kubel as a major league player. He's only 32 and wacked 30 homers for Arizona as recently as 2012, but his bat just up-and-died in midseason of that year.

Seriously: At the All-Star break in 2012 he was slashing .293/.367/.533; after the break, .201/.275/.470. Still a good slugging percentage, but the homers was all he did ... and it got worse from there.

So it's been about two calendar years since he was a truly good hitter. 

* Aaron Hicks went on the disabled list Friday after getting his sore shoulder examined. Sam Fuld was reactivated from the concussion DL.

It's possible Hicks would have been optioned out this weekend to make room for Fuld had he not gotten hurt. He needs more regular at-bats, especially against righties, as he transitions from switch-hitting, than he was going to get in the majors.

Mike Pelfrey's
surgery was done by
Dr. James Andrews,
who also did his
2012 Tommy John
surgery.

* Mike Pelfrey had surgery to remove scar tissue in his right elbow that was pressing on his ulna nerve and causing tingling in his pitching arm.

He kept saying he was healthy, but the radar gun readings said something was wrong. Presumably this was the something.

Pelfrey is to miss at least two months, which would put his return no earlier than mid August. I'll hazard the guess that the only way he gets on a major league mound again this year is if the Twins fall out of contention. (He has another year on his contract with the Twins.)

*Eric Fryer was indeed the callup to replace Josmil Pinto as the No. 2 catcher. Chris Herrmann was at the same time reactivated off the minor league disabled list.

The future of the rotation

Phil Hughes collects himself Sunday before his first start
in Yankee Stadium as a member of a visiting team.

The Twins starters fared pretty well over the weekend in Yankee Stadium. Working it backwards:

• Sunday: Phil Hughes went eight innings, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks. 
• Saturday: Kevin Correia, my least favored of the starters, went six innings and allowed just one run. 
• Friday: Ricky Nolasco also had six innings of one-run ball.

Nolasco did walk four with just three strikeouts and allowed seven hits, 11 baserunners in 18 outs; Correia had nine hits and one walk, 10 baserunners. So the one-run outcomes seem a bit deceptive. They didn't pitch THAT well.

Still, three quality starts in the tater haven that is the newest rendition of Yankee Stadium isn't bad at all.

Meanwhile, a few noteworthy developments regarding Twins starters past and future in the minors:

Mike Pelfrey interrupted his rehab assignment to have his arm checked out, and what is described as minor nerve irritation was found. He is to have a second exam done by the noted Dr. James Andrews. So he's not close to returning, which is probably for the better. I'm in no hurry to see him pitch again.

Prospect Trevor May, pitching for Triple A Rochester, blew away Gwinnett (Atlanta) with seven shutout innings in his most recent start. He's now 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a batting average allowed under .200 for the Red Wings. He's also sporting his lowest walk rate since A ball.

May isn't the only Red Wings starter impressing. Kris Johnson, who came up to start the second game of a doubleheader, has a 1.83 ERA. Logan Darnell, who also had a brief call-up, has a 2.54 ERA with more strikeouts than innings. And Alex Meyer, generally regarded as the best pitching prospect in the organization, has a 3.31 ERA while fanning 10.8 hitters per nine innings. (He's also got a high walk rate).

May, Darnell and Johnson are on the 40-man roster, while Yohan Pino is not. Poor Pino, who has picked up a handful of starts, only has a 1.73 ERA.

The Red Wings have a team ERA of 3.14, and I can only imagine how low it would be without old friend Scott Diamond's 7.51. I don't see Diamond returning to Minneapolis anytime soon. A lot of guys ahead of him.

Here's the thing: One can make a case for bringing up any of the May-Meyer-Darnell-Johnson quartet for the Twins rotation. (I'm arbitrarily leaving Pino out on the basis that the other four are younger and better prospects for the future). But for whom?

Certainly not for Hughes, who has been superb. The Twins have too much invested in Nolasco to change course on him after two months. Kyle Gibson has been up and down, but the Twins really do need to give him a clean shot.

That leaves Correia and Sam Deduno. Correia is in the final year of the two-year contract he signed before 2013, and I think he's a possible piece of trade bait in July. Or even sooner if some teams with postseason ambitions start getting squeezed by injuries. (Or if the Twins can find somebody with a spare center fielder.)

Deduno ... well, his injury history suggests he's not likely to finish the year in the rotation. I'd say keep him in the rotation until he gets hurt.

The Twins will have rotation openings this summer. But they need not be in a hurry to create them.

A day of 14 pitchers

After Thursday's brutal doubleheader, the Twins called up Logan Darnell to bolster their overworked bullpen and put Aaron Hicks on the concussion disabled list.

This gave the Twins 14 pitchers on the 25-man active roster, which is ... way too many.

As it turned out, they only needed one Friday. Ricky Nolasco threw nine innings of three-run ball, which ought to be good enough but was three runs too many to get a tie. At least the bullpen got a day off.

And the Twins cut back to 13 pitchers after the game. Mike Pelfrey was put on the disabled list (pulled groin) and shortstop Danny Santana is expected in the Twin Cities for this afternoon's game.

I'll forgive anybody skeptical of Pelfrey's conveniently timed injury, but it seems likely that something is wrong with him. His velocity is down several miles per hour, and his command -- which, to be sure, has never been particularly strong -- isn't good either. These things tend to point to an injury, sometimes one the pitcher isn't even aware of (or at least willing to admit to having).

As for Santana ... the idea seems to be that he'll be on the bench waiting for the next player to drop. Eduardo Escobar has the shortstop job until he proves he shouldn't have it, which, as I said a few days ago, makes sense.

It is, once again, a misshapen roster, with three shortstops (Escobar, Santana and Pedro Florimon) and three catchers (Kurt Suzuki, Josmil Pinto and Chris Herrmann). Half the Twins active position players  play the two positions that historically are weakest at the plate.

The Twins are getting use from the catchers: Suzuki the primary catcher, Pinto the regular DH and Herrmann as the fourth outfielder as well as backup receiver. But there doesn't appear to be reason for both Florimon and Santana at this point.

Thoughts on a too-long doubleheader

Kris Johnson walked six and struck out
five in 4.1 shutout innings, an odd
combination of effective inefficency.

Neither Mike Pelfrey nor Kris Johnson did their careers any favors with their performances Thursday.

Johnson wasn't going to stick around after his spot start in the night cap anyway, but six walks in 4.1 innings will not sit well. In and out of trouble; he got 13 outs and allowed 10 baserunners, but somehow no runs.

Pelfrey's issues continue, and the buzz after yet another dismal performance suggested the Twins are about ready to pull the plug on him in the rotation.

If so, the dual questions are: Who replaces him in the rotation, and what do they Twins do with him?

The two are connected. If the Twins decide to move Sam Deduno back into the rotation, they can stick Pelfrey in the long relief role and see if they can't find some value for their $11 million investment. But if they (as I've theorized based on the lack of opportunity given Deduno to make the rotation) prefer to have Deduno in the bullpen -- or if they want to slide Trevor May or Alex Meyer to the big club -- they might wind up releasing Pelfrey and eating the money.

Pelfrey apparently has an option left, but he has enough service time to reject the minor league demotion, and I suspect that would be his choice.

I didn't expect him to be great, or even particularly good, but I didn't expect him to be this bad either. The velocity is down and the command is as spotty as ever. He's a pitch-to-contact guy who pitches as if he's afraid to pitch to contact. That cannot work.

---

I wasn't a bit surprised, after watching Aaron Hicks run into the centerfield fence in the second game, when he left with "concussion-like symptoms." Frankly, he looked on the TV screen like he was concussed. The surprise was that he remained in the game as long as he did.

---

Drew Butera, offensive machine: The weak-hitting former Twin, effectively the Dodgers' No. 1 catcher while A.J. Ellis is on the disabled list, had two hits Wednesday in his return to Target Field. On Thursday, he hit a home run and drew two four-pitch walks.

There may be no greater testimony to the struggles of the Minnesota pitching staff than that.

If not Pelfrey, who?

Logan Darnell has been
sharp so far at Triple A
Rochester.

Mike Pelfrey had another low-grade start Wednesday evening: Five innings, four runs allowed (three earned) with three walks and one strikeout. Even with a two-year contract, one senses that his chances are dwindling.

Imagine that the Twins decide to, as they say, go in a different direction. What are the options?

Perhaps the most obvious is to flip-flip him with Sam Deduno. Deduno has racked up an ERA of 1.80 in 14.2 innings out of the bullpen, and he was the most effective starter in the rotation for most of last season.

But ... I suspect the Twins have concluded that Deduno isn't a good fit for a starting rotation. He had shoulder surgery last year, he had Tommy John surgery before coming to the Twins, and he has had difficulty going deep into games. They're not looking for "five-and-fly."

If not Deduno, then reaching into the minors yields...

Trevor May came to
the Twins in the
Ben Revere deal.

Well, the word at the end of training camp had Scott Diamond and Kris Johnson, a pair of lefties, as the most likely early callups should rotation reinforcements be required.

Neither has overwhelmed in the early going in Rochester, however. Johnson — indirectly part of the return on last August's Justin Morneau trade — hasn't been bad: 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts, but with 14 strikeouts and no homers allowed in 16 innings. Diamond, a personal favorite, has been brutal: 1-2, 10.20 and with nine walks in 15 innings. He walked a lot of hitters in exhibition play too; this is a seriously bad sign.

Top pitching prospect Alex Meyer has been inconsistent, and while I think he's likely to get the call at some point, it's unlikely to come in May.

The two guys whose Rochester stats raise my eyebrows are Trevor May and Logan Darnell.

Darnell, a lefty who is on the 40-man roster, has a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings. More striking: 15 strikeouts as well.  May, a hard-thrower whose record indicates issues with control, has a worse ERA (2.93) than Darnell, but a sterling walk-to-strikeout ratio, three walks and 16 Ks in 15.1 innings.

If May — who issued the third most walks in the Double A Eastern League last year — has found the strike zone, he'll be in Minnesota real soon.

Nine games to test patience

Mike Pelfrey and the Twins broke out their
ugly blue jerseys Thursday. They didn't help.

Nine games is a pittance of a baseball season, 5.5 percent of the schedule. In terms of the NFL schedule, the Twins are late in the fourth quarter of the first game.

The Twins have a 3-6 record entering today. They lost a couple games they could have won, won a couple of games they could have lost, got blown out in others ... they have a 3-6 record, and a 3-6 record is what they deserve.

And one can feel the fan interest slipping away. Thursday afternoon's game — a sunny, 60-degree day game — had an announced attendance of less than 21,000, the smallest crowd in Target Field history. Midweek day games on school days aren't attendance magnets, but certainly the Twins business side wants/expects better than that.

The fans want/expect better than they've seen. Nine game is a pittance, and even good teams will have 3-6 stretches, but this is more than three years of lousy play, and patience is thin.

The organization knows that. Terry Ryan and Co. committed $83 million over the winter to Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey, to fix the broken rotation, and that trio has (two starts apiece) combined for exactly 30 innings and 27 earned runs allowed, ERA 8.10. Kevin Correia, the fourth veteran in the rotation, hasn't been much better.

The Twins have established a pattern over the years of giving their suspect veteran starters about six weeks of rope. Guys like Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz got until mid-May before the chain was pulled and they lost their rotation spots.

Nolasco and Hughes will have longer leashes than that. The Twins made too large a set of investments in them to give up that quickly. Pelfrey and Correia aren't making the minimum, but in the current baseball economy, their $5.5 million salaries are relatively disposable. I don't imagine that either is going to get the ax this early in the season, but I can imagine that the discontent is serious enough that something might happen before that usual mid-May let's-make-a-change period.

People want something from this team. If the veterans are going to give incompetent pitching performances, let us have the incompetence of inexperience. Alex Meyer and Trevor May may not be truly ready, but the process of finding out might be more interesting to watch than more flat sinkers from Pelfrey.

Eye on 2014: The rotation

Kevin Correia was
the best of a bad
rotation in 2013.
He has one year
left on his contract.

Pitchers and catchers report to begin workouts at the Twins spring training camp a week month from today. (Does that make you feel any warmer today? Me neither. It's still cold.)

The Twins caravan rolled through Mankato last night with 2014 bullpenners Brian Duensing and Ryan Pressly in tow. There's been chatter of shifting one or both (Anthony Swarzak as well) to a starting role, but I don't take the idea very seriously. For one thing, all have track records of being better in relief. For another, there isn't a lot of room in the rotation after the signings earlier this offseason.

While the Twins still have roughly $15 million in payroll space for the coming season, and while some of the bigger names in the winter's free-agent field remain unsigned, I figure Terry Ryan and Co. have made their moves. It's possible Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo might settle for what the Twins are offering, but a more likely outcome is that those two will land with teams that don't get the biggest fish in the pitching pool, Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka. And I definitely doubt the Twins would surrender a second-round draft pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez or Edwin Santana to the kind of deals those guys are seeking.

Which means the 2014 rotation shapes up thusly, pitchers ordered by salary commitment:

• Ricky Nolasco
• Phil Hughes
• Kevin Correia
• Mike Pelfrey
• Another 2013 holdover (Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Vince Worley, Andrew Albers, Kyle Gibson)

Nolasco and Hughes represent a significant investment in free agent arms: a pair of four year deals, with Nolasco's being the most expensive signing of a free agent in Twins history (Joe Mauer was a year away from free agency when he signed his big contract) and Hughes the second biggest.

The interesting thing, really, about the signings is that the money is being paid out not on the basis of past accomplishment but on the basis of projection. Nolasco and Hughes have been around long enough to qualify for free agency, but both have considerable "upside" in this sense: Their peripheral stats have always been better than the raw results. Pelfrey's upside comes from being another year removed from his Tommy John surgery.

It's not a playoff-caliber rotation. That comes, if it does, when prospect Alex Meyer and Gibson — or eventually one or more of the younger guns, Kohl Stewart or J.O. Berrios or Lewis Thorpe — emerge as top-of-the-rotation arms and push Nolasco and Hughes down the list (and Correia off completely).

It should be better than 2013's rotation, but that's an excessively low hurdle to clear.

Mike Pelfrey vs. Kyle Gibson

Mike Pelfrey was quite effective in July and August
after a couple weeks on the disabled list, then sagged
in September.

Theoretically, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson are similar pitchers: Tall (Pelfrey is listed at 6-7, Gibson at 6-6) right-handed, first round draft picks out of midwestern colleges, Tommy John surgery survivors. They're even fairly close in age (Gibson is 26, Pelfrey turns 30 next month).

And, perhaps most significantly, they are both oriented to a high-velocity sinker and lack a swing-and-miss breaking ball. They're geared to ground balls rather than strikeouts.

Pelfrey's return, added to the signing of Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes and the continuing presence of Kevin Correia, appears to push Gibson into a multi-pitcher scrum for the fifth rotation spot. Among the other candidates: Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno and Andrew Albers. Since Gibson has an option left, and Diamond and Deduno do not, Gibson may be a decided underdog in that competition.

The question remains: Is Pelfrey really a better bet than Gibson?

I have my doubts.

Let's compare the two with the help of the 2014 Bill James Handbook.

Pelfrey's fastball in 2014 averaged 92.4 mph; Gibson, 92.1.

Pelfrey threw his fastball on 73 percent of his pitches. Other pitches: 10 percent sliders, 9 percent splitters, 8 percent curves.

Gibson threw his fastball on 69 percent of his pitches. Other pitches: 17 percent sliders, 13 percent change ups, 1 percent curve. (That would be about one curve ball per game, and I suspect that's more likely a pitch identification problem in the system.)

Pelfrey's 680 batters faced hit 222 grounders (32.4 percent); Gibson's 238 major league hitters generated 92 grounders (38.6 percent).

Pelfrey threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches, Gibson just 59 percent. Neither percentage is good. It leads to too many deep counts and too many walks.

The wild card here, of course, is that 2013 was, for both, the first full season after their respective ligament replacement surgery. But it has to be said: Pelfrey's "leading indicator" stats were in line with what he did before his injury.

As far as I'm concerned, Pelfrey and Gibson are the same pitcher. It doesn't make a lot of sense to pay one $5 million more to block the other.

Pelfrey's back, but why?

Mike Pelfrey:
Assuming he passes
his physical, he's
back in the Twins
rotation.

Mike Pelfrey and the Twins have reportedly come to terms on a two-year deal, pending a physical.

Had this come before the the Twins landed Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, I would have agreed. Now, not so much.

The money involved -- $11 million guaranteed plus incentives -- means Pelfrey ranks ahead of his fellow unimpressive holdovers from 2013.

The presumptive rotation:

Nolasco
Hughes
Kevin Correia
Pelfrey
? -- someone from the Scott Diamond / Sam Deduno / Kyle Gibson / Vance Worley group.

Somebody on Twitter said this gives the team depth. Well, only until the season starts. Diamond, Deduno and Worley are all out of options. They'd have to clear waivers to be sent to Rochester.

In truth, I'd rather have Pelfrey than Correia. There's a good chance that Pelfrey will be better in 2014 (another year removed from his elbow reconstruction, and his underlying stats were better than his actual results) and Correia was about as effective as he can be. But I'd rather see Gibson, Deduno and/or Diamond given a chance than either. Maybe -- maybe -- the Twins figure they can trade Correia.

Meanwhile, the Twins supposedly are still pursuing Bronson Arroyo and/or Matt Garza, either of whom would fit ahead of Hughes in that rotation.