Ex-Twin watch: Liam Hendriks

Liam Hendricks had, from all appearances, a very strong season for the Toronto Blue Jays: 5-0, 2.92, with 71 strikeouts and 11 walks in 64 innings over 58 appearances, He spent the whole season in the majors.

Yet it's quite obvious that Toronto manager John Gibbons doesn't really trust the Aussie. The primary righties to bridge the gap between the starters and closer Roberto Osuna are Mark Lowe and Aaron Sanchez, neither of whom have the raw stats in 2015 that Hendriks does. Hendriks made his first appearance in the ALCS Monday night, coming in for the ninth inning with a seven-run lead. He faced four hitters, three of whom got hits and the other a hard-hit out, and was pulled for Osuna.

As it turns out, spelunking into the numbers, Hendriks built his impressive overall stats in situations that didn't matter much. According to Baseball Reference, Hendriks faced just 39 hitters all season in "high leverage" situations; those hitters hit .359. Hendriks faced 40 hitters in "medium leverage" situations; those hitters hit .389. And he faced 181 men in "low leverage" situations; those hitters hit just .176. He had six holds on the season, none after August 5.

Is that random chance at work or something intrinsic in Hendriks' skill set or psyche? The stat nerd in me says it's baseball's randomness. But I am reminded of Anthony Swarzak, who spent a few years in the Twins bullpen thriving in low-importance situations and struggling when the hitters mattered in games. Put Swarzak in six runs down, and he'd likely provide a couple shutout innings; put him in in a tied game, and he'd likely yield one or or more runs.

I was frequently critical of the Twins handling of Hendriks. They bounced him between majors and minors for three years and, in my estimation, never gave him a clear shot at the rotation. He had 28 starts in his 30 appearances with the Twins, and I'm not foolish enough to say he pitched well in those starts (his Minnesota ERA was 6.06), but a lot of successful major league starters floundered in their first 30 or so starts. It's not like the 2012 or '13 Twins had a lot of obviously better options, or couldn't afford to sacrifice some games to developing Hendriks.

Anyway: The Twins gave up on him as a starter and didn't think him worth trying as a reliever. His 2015 numbers say that was a mistake. His 2015 usage suggests it doesn't matter. He's only 26; we'll see how and if his impact develops.

Contemplating Liam Hendriks

Liam Hendriks threw first-pitch strikes to 20 of the 25
hitters he faced Wednesday night.

Liam Hendriks made 28 starts for the Twins over a three-year stretch before they cut him loose last winter (to make room on the roster for free-agent signee Phil Hughes). None of those starts were as good as his outting Wednesday night for the Royals against the Twins. He took a perfect game into the fifth inning and he didn't allow a run until the seventh.

Hendriks didn't get the win, but he was very effective.

This gave my (rather Twins-oriented) Twitter feed a theme for the night: How can Liam Freaking Hendriks be shutting out the Twins?

Well, there are a number of reasons. Hendriks (and Hughes) benefited from a generous outside corner, for one thing.

But another factor in why Hendriks appeared so much better in his Kansas City debut than he ever did with the Twins: The Royals put a high-quality defense in the field behind him. The Twins seldom did.

For example: Hendriks' final start for the Twins came on Sept. 16, 2013. He didn't make it out of the first inning: two outs, seven runs allowed.

The Twins outfield for that game: Alex Presley in center, flanked by Oswaldo Arcia in left and Chris Herrmann in right. The infield: Chris Parmelee at first, Eduardo Escobar at second, Trevor Plouffe at third, Pedro Florimon at short. Josmil Pinto caught.

The defense Kansas City put behind Hendriks Wednesday night was, in my estimation, markedly better at every position except first base and maybe second base. I'm not saying Hendriks was good that night against the White Sox; I will say that defense, and particularly the outfielders, wasn't going to do him any favors -- certainly not of the kind that Alex Gordon did with a catch off Kurt Suzuki.

I don't know that Hendriks is going to be an effective major league starter. I do know that his minor league numbers are very good, and I have long believed that the Twins handled him far too impatiently, particularly in 2012.

It's taken four years of sporadic starts, but the Rule of 30 finally applies to Hendriks; Wednesday was his 32nd big-league start. The Rule of 30 says you give a pitcher 30 starts before you decide if he can succeed in the majors. Right or wrong, the Twins were never willing to go more than a month with him in the rotation.

Ex-Twins watch: Danny Valencia for Liam Hendriks

Interesting deal Monday between the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays, two teams that have at times led their divisions but have fallen to second place. Well, interesting to Twins fans, at least. It's unlikely to change the standings in any meaningful way.

The Royals shipped third baseman Danny Valencia to the Blue Jays in exchange for catcher Erik Kratz and pitcher Liam Hendriks.

Despite my title for this post, the trade's not really Valencia for Hendriks. It's Valencia for Kratz with Hendriks as a throw-in. But to a Twins fan, Kratz is an unknown, and Valencia and Hendriks are a couple of guys we once held hopes for.

Valencia it a fairly empty .282 for Kansas City. The Royals picked him up during offseason presumably as a platoon option with Mike Moustakas, a high draft pick who has disappointed. Moustakas has been even worse than Valencia, but Ned Yost is apparently as allergic to platoons as Ron Gardenhire, so the platoon notion never went anywhere. The Jays have a bunch of corner infielders on the DL (Brett Lawrie, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind), so they can find at-bats for Valencia, at least until these superior players return.

The Royals wanted Kratz as an upgrade on their backup catcher; Brett Hayes has hit .135 in very limited at-bats behind Salvador Perez. Kratz has at least flashed some power in the majors, which is more than Hayes offers. He's an upgrade, but not a significant one.

And Hendriks? Well, we're fairly familiar with this from the Aussie: The Jays gave him three big league starts, in which he worked a total of 13.1 innings and compiled a 6.08 ERA. In Triple A, Hendriks is 8-1, 2.33.

I really don't know why he dominates in the high minors and is so inept in the majors. He'll be for the Royals what he was for the Jays -- rotation depth in Triple A.

Notes, quotes and comment

Liam Hendriks, dropped from the Twins' 40-man roster to make room for Phil Hughes, was claimed on waivers last week by the Chicago Cubs.

It figured that the Twins would give up on him this winter. It also figured that somebody would claim Hendriks, who had some success in the minors (although he struggled in Triple A last year). I'm made my "Rule of 30" argument often enough about him that there's no point in repeating it.

Hendriks is not a good bet to become an ace. I still think he can become an effective major league starter. The Twins demanded immediate success, or at least more than they got. Now somebody else will get to see if he's learned something from his struggles so far.

---

Ron Coomer is also going to the Cubs. The Chicago native is to be their new radio analyst, sidekick to play-by-play man Pat Hughes.

Keith Moreland had held the job for three years following the death of Ron Santo.

I was never that impressed with Coomer's "insights" on the Twins TV broadcasts, but somebody obviously thinks he has something to offer the audience.

---

Miguel Sano had his sprained elbow examined last week in Fort Myers, and the uberprospect has been cleared to resume throwing. A good sign, since his throwing arm is probably his second best tool (behind his power) and a big reason the Twins have stuck to the notion of playing him at third base.

---

Terry Ryan repeatedly professed last week to being unconcerned about Josmil Pinto's throwing shoulder, but the catching prospect is now done with winter ball after about three weeks of not catching.

A few months of Pinto not playing, in and of itself, does not disturb me. He and Sano and a few other Latin prospects might benefit from some time off from the game. But the shoulder was an issue during the summer, and I don't know why it wouldn't be an issue next year too.

Phil Hughes in, Liam Hendriks out

Phil Hughes wore 65 with the Yankees, but with the
Twins he'll take number 45 off Scott Ullger's back.

Phil Hughes' contract was finalized Thursday, which meant that the Twins had to clear room on the 40-man roster.

The move: Liam Hendriks was designated for assignment.

It seemed the obvious move to me; I had predicted it Monday. But my Twitter feed had a brief eruption from people -- notably Twins prospect guru Seth Stohs -- unhappy that Hendriks was targeted.

Here's the thing, though: Hendriks simply hasn't been good at major league baseball.

Thirty MLB games, 28 starts, 156 innings -- and a 2-13 record with a 6.06 ERA.

I've been critical the past two years of the Twins' handling of Hendriks. I've argued that they were too impatient, especially in 2012, when he dominated the International League in between sporadic opportunities in the American League. I've noted, repeatedly, that many pitchers -- even some great ones, such as Greg Maddux -- struggled to find their way in their first season in a rotation. (I call it the Rule of 30 -- that one should judge a pitcher's stats on what he does after 30 major league starts.)

Even now, Hendriks hasn't gotten to 30 starts. I think it's possible that the Aussie will eventually emerge as a competent back-of-the rotation starter.

But that's the ceiling: A fourth or fifth guy. And the Twins have other arms who have come closer to achieving that status than Hendriks has -- Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, Andrew Albers. In that crowd, Hendriks was surplus inventory.

Mike Bernadino of the Pioneer Press figured Hendriks' future might be in the bullpen. Well, again, the Twins have no shortage of arms for that role. Hendriks might be a good long man, but the Twins have Anthony Swarzak already.

The Twins have 40 on the roster. If they're to play in the Rule 5 draft next week, and they almost always do, they'll need to clear another player off the deck.

Liam Hendriks and the Rule of 30

Liam Hendriks threw 41 pitches
in the first inning Monday and
got two outs.

One of my pet theories about pitching is the "Rule of 30," which holds that one should withhold judgment on a starter until after he's gotten 30 major league starts under his belt.

Greg Maddux, in his first 32 starts (over two seasons) was 8-18, 5.59. Randy Johnson — similar to Maddux only in that both are among the all-time greats — in his first 32 starts (over two seasons) was 10-13, 4.48, and walked five men per nine innings.

I can throw more examples out there, from Tom Glavine to Brad Radke, but the point is: It often takes pitchers, even very good ones, a while to figure out how their stuff works against major league hitters. There are exceptions — Mike Mussina comes immediately to mind — but the Rule of 30 is generally valid.

Which brings us to Liam Hendriks, who had a completely putrid start Monday. The Aussie didn't get out of the first inning: Five hits, three walks, seven runs. His 2013 ERA went from bad to worse: 5.25 entering the game to 6.87 leaving it.

Hendriks is 24. He's been up and down, between big leagues and Triple A, since September 2011, and Monday's game was his 28th start with the Twins.

I make Hendriks' career ERA now to be 6.01, and there's no way to sugar coat that. He dominated the International League in 2012 between sporadic call-ups to the Twins but was nowhere near as effective this year in Triple A. I get the sense that the Twins are about ready to give up on him and move on.

Which is understandable. A 6.01 ERA is a 6.01 ERA. I also suspect it would be a mistake. Hendriks hasn't cleared 30 starts yet, and the Twins probably haven't helped the learning process much by jacking him up and down either. I complained about this at times last year. I thought then that the team should have accepted the growing pains and stuck with him; I still think giving him a half-dozen more big league starts would have been the better route.

No, Hendriks isn't going to transform into Greg Maddux with regular rotation work, but he's still young enough to develop into something more than Kevin Correia. If the Twins cut Hendriks loose this winter and he emerges elsewhere as a competent major league starter, it will be less an indictment of the coaching staff than of the impatience the organization has displayed with him.

Contemplating Andrew Albers and Liam Hendriks

Andrew Albers cleans up after getting
a shaving cream pie following his
major league debut Tuesday.

The Twins this week reached down to Triple A for a pair of starters, both of whom fared well.

Andrew Albers replaced Scott Diamond in the rotation and made an immediate splash with 8.1 shutout innings against Kansas City on Tuesday. Albers' performance was all the more impressive considering how poorly Kevin Correia and Samuel Deduno fared in the other games of the series.

Albers drew some immediate comparisons to Diamond — left-handed, mediocre velocity, from Canada — but the guy who came to mind for me was Mark Buehrle, the long-time White Sox mainstay now with Toronto, also a lefty without an imposing fastball.

Buehrle is notorious for a rapid pace to his pitching, and Albers certainly followed that pattern. In a Twins season marked by excruciatingly long games and pitchers reluctant to make their next pitch -- Mike Pelfrey is not the only one -- it was a refreshing sight.

If what Buehrle does were that simple, more pitchers would be doing it. Albers will certainly get several more opportunities.

Catcher Chris Herrmann and Liam Hendriks
consult in the sixth inning Friday. Hendriks
went 6.1 innings, allowing two runs in
one of his better major-league starts.

One thing in Albers' favor on Tuesday that won't be replicated in his next start: The  Royals almost certainly had a minimal scouting report on him. Not only was it Albers' major league debut, but the Royals and Twins farm systems are remarkably separate. Their Triple A teams are in different leagues, their Double-A teams are in different leagues, their high A teams are in different leagues.

In this case, ignorance was not bliss.

Liam Hendriks' stint was one-and-done; he was called up strictly to make the start in Game Two of Friday's double header and was shipped back to Rochester immediately the Twins's 3-2 extra inning victory.

Hendriks may well be back in September, and there were some positive signs from him against the White Sox Friday, most notably a lack of the nibbling at the edges of the strike zone when ahead in the count.

Still, the Aussie's stock can't be high in the organization. He's having a far worse season in Triple A this year compared to last (9-3, 2.20 in 2012, 3-8, 5.12 this year), and the rationale offered by assistant general manager Rob Antony for picking Hendriks for Friday's game was We didn't have many options.

The sixth starter

P.J. Walters, having been designated for assignment, is now in baseball limbo. He's not officially in the Twins organization, but if nobody claims him on waivers, he can be outrighted to Triple A.

At the moment, the Twins' rotation features, in alphabetical order, Kevin Correia, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. (It will be interesting to see how Ron Gardenhire lines them up coming out of the All-Star break; my guess is that Gibson will be at the end of the line.)

Considering that there's about half the season yet to play, the odds are that bunch will change. If Walters isn't a candidate to move back into the rotation, who is?

The possibilities include:

Pedro Hernandez

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Hernandez has made seven starts in the majors for the Twins (3-1, 5.54) and six for Rochester (2-2, 3.60). If he has a major league career ahead of him, it's probably as a relief pitcher. He'd be a safe place-holder, but that's all.

Cole De Vries was
5-5, 4.11 in his
time with the Twins
in 2012.

Cole De Vries

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Minnesota native would have opened 2013 in the major league rotation but ran into arm issues. He's made nine starts in Rochester and has gone 3-4, 8.16, with just 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Hard to see him being close to a callup.

Liam Hendriks

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Aussie opened with the big club and went down quickly. He dominated the International League last year but has fallen off this year (1-6, 5.05). His status isn't high.

Vance Worley 

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: He's 5-3, 3.81 since his demotion, which looks pretty good compared to his fellow 40-man roster mates. But it comes with just 30 strikeouts in 52 innings. I do expect him to return to the major league rotation this year, but that's more because of what the Twins have invested in him than because he's earned it.

Minor league veteran
Andrew Albers pitched
for Team Canada
in the WBC.

Andrew Albers

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Lefty from Canada, he was just named to the IL all-star team (8-3, 3.00 with 86 K in 99 innings). He's 27 and has spent more time in his career in relief than starting, but he's been a fixture in the Red Wings rotation and is having a fine season. I don't see him as a likely long-term rotation candidate.

Logan Darnell

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Another lefty, he has made one start for the Red Wings after a strong first half with Double A New Britain (6-6, 2.61). He's 24, and this is by far his best minor league performance. Probably behind Albers in terms of getting a chance.

Nick Blackburn:
Forgot he was still
around, didn't you?

Nick Blackburn

Status: Not on the 40-man roster; on rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League
Comment: He makes the list only because he's getting $5.5 million this year, which I believe makes him the Twins' highest-paid pitcher. He's gotta do something in the minors before the Twins will consider letting him try to earn some of his pay in the majors, and I don't think it's real likely. No future benefit from his return; the Twins won't exercise his $8 million option for 2014.

Alex Meyer

Status: Not on the 40; currently on disabled list
Comment: Was shut down with a shoulder issue last month; the Twins say there's no structural damage, but caution is being exercised anyway. Probably the best pitching prospect in the organization, he's 3-3, 3.69 in Double A New Britain with 73 strikeouts in 61 innings. Won't get a callup this year. (Came to Twins in the Denard Span trade.)

Trevor May came
to the Twins in the
Ben Revere trade.

Trevor May

Status: On the 40, pitching in New Britain
Comment: Some good signs from May as he repeats Double A (6-5, 3.98 with 93 K in 95 innings). The control is improving, although his season walk rate (3.9 BB/9) is still too high. He might be a September callup, since he's already on the 40, but he's not going to be yo-yo'd up and down. Expect patience with him. 

Grading the Twins rotation

Scott Diamond shone once more in a day game; for his
short career, his day ERA is 3.32, his night ERA 4.27.

Scott Diamond had his third straight quality start Wednesday, but it was the first time this season he was truly the ground-ball machine of 2012. According to Baseball Reference, he had 13 ground balls and five fly balls Wednesday, bringing him to a 40/35 split for the season.

Diamond's breakout 2012 was all about avoiding walks and getting grounders, so Wednesday was a welcome sign. I'll pick a nit and say I'd like to see him break past six innings next time out; while the bullpen has been very good, the rotation needs to eat more outs.

The Twins have used six starters so far. Vance Worley's had six starts, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey five each, Diamond four, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez two each.

I classify the starters into three camps:

1) Semi-established: Diamond and Worley. These are the guys I can envision being part of the rotation for the next contending Twins team. Worley's had a difficult go of things so far: 0-4, 7.22 with less than 29 innings in the six starts, and his strikeout rate is down almost two per nine innings.

Indications are that Worley's leash is long, and it ought to be. But he's not doing well.

I'll give Diamond a C for the season so far. Worley has to be earning an F.

2) The disposable veterans: Correia and Pelfrey, the veterans brought in a free agents. I can't argue with Correia's results, even if I doubt he can sustain them. Pelfrey's been brutal. An A for Correia, another F for Pelfrey.

3) The fifth starters: Hendriks and Hernandez. I fully expect the Twins to cycle a number of pitchers through the rotation looking for someone to break through as Diamond did in 2012. Hendriks got the first shot and was quickly supplanted by Hernandez.

I'll give Hendriks a D; he wasn't all that awful in his two starts, but he did get sent down, and unlike last year, he hasn't dominated Triple A upon his return. If and when the Twins swap out another rotation piece, it probably won't be Hendriks getting the call. Cole De Vries and Sam Deduno are more likely (not that either is ready yet).

The left-handed Hernandez has split time between the rotation and long relief since his return, a pattern imposed by the offdays and weather problems, and has put up an ERA of 2.35, which is not to be sneered at. I'll give him a B, but, as with Correia, I don't really expect him to continue at that level.

Here's a key difference between Diamond and Hernandez, at least as far as one can judge Hernandez off 15.1 innings: Hernandez does not appear to be a worm killer. Baseball Reference has him at 20 grounders and 30 fly balls so far.

Sixteen starts without a win

Liam Hendriks didn't catch many breaks Friday night,
but he didn't pitch particularly well either.

The Twins on Friday gave starter Liam Hendriks a 4-0 lead after three innings. Two innings later, Hendriks had thrown 108 pitches, had left the game, and the score was tied at four.

Another no-decision for Hendriks. The 23-year-old righty has made 16 appearances in the majors (all starts) with an 0-9, 6.19 record.

Despite his lack of success, I still think there's a legitimate major league starter there; it's just taking some time to find. He's been too good in the minors to fail so utterly in the majors (assuming good health.)

But 16 starts and no wins isn't easy to do. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune reported this morning that Hendriks is "tied for the fifth-most starts to open a career without a win." He means, as I study the list, a winning start; there are pitchers on his list who won a game in relief before they won a game as a starter.

Christensen listed eight other  pitchers who went at least 15 starts without a win to start their career. While none of them went on to the Hall of Fame, a good share became good pitchers.

Bill Caudill (20 starts) became a successful relief pitcher, racking up 106 saves and an All-Star berth in his nine-year career. He also holds this footnote in baseball history; he was Scott Boras' first client. From a tiny acorn a mighty oak ...

Mike Mohler (20 starts) was mostly a situational lefty reliever in his nine-year career. Very marginal, but nine years is nine years.

Craig Anderson (17 starts) had the misfortune of being one of the better pitchers on the 1962 Mets, which is not quite the same as saying he was a good pitcher (3-17, 5.35 that year). He appears to have gotten hurt; his career was over at age 25.

Jason Hammel (17 starts) is a current pitcher and the first one we've encountered so far to turn into a competent starter. He had his rough career start with Tampa Bay when the then-Devil Rays were spluttering. He found his footing with Colorado, of all places, and is 8-6, 3.46 with Baltimore this season (with time on the disabled list).

Ray Herbert (16 starts) was a good starter on generally bad teams in the 1950s and '60s. He won 20 games in 1962 and made the All-Star team. Of the eight pitchers listed here, he was probably the best starter.

Fred Norman (15 starts) became the prototypical starter for Sparky Anderson's Big Red Machine in the mid 70s. Those starters weren't asked to win the game so much as not to lose it. Norman had seven straight double-digit win seasons with the Reds. Soft-tossing lefty with a screwball.

Paul Abbott (15 starts) also went through this as a Twin, or at least part of it as a Twin (10 starts with Minnesota). He was plagued by arm problems but persevered to go 17-4 with the Seattle Mariners of 2001. He had one other decent season. If I recall correctly, he was credited with teaching Brad Radke the changeup.

John Cummings (15 starts) is probably the least substantial pitcher of the group, he or Anderson.

What most of these pitchers have in common: They debuted with bad teams, they struggled early, and eventually (except Anderson and Cummings) found a niche.

Hendriks' problems do not signify failure so much as transition.

A step in the right direction

Seattle's Eric Thames trots around
the bases after his eight-inning
home run, the only run Liam Hendriks
allowed — and one run too many.

Regular readers of this blog know that I believe in Liam Hendriks. To be precise, I believe in his minor league numbers, and believe that, given sufficient opportunity (and health) that he can be a competent major league starter.

He's not going to be Felix Hernandez. His talent isn't at that level. But he can become something resembling a Brad Radke.

The Twins have yanked him up and down this season, and to be fair to the team's decision makers, he hasn't done well at the major league level.

Monday night he did do well — nine innings of three-hit, one-run ball, with three walks and six strikeouts. It was easily the best performance of his major league career to date.

Unfortunately for the Aussie, he was pitted against Hernandez, and Hernandez was better than he was. Which he should be, because Hernandez IS better. There aren't many as good as King Felix, and nobody who is certainly better.

One start does not vindicate Hendriks, and holding Seattle to a single tally isn't like doing the same to the Yankees or Texas. But it's something to build on. And with the minor league seasons winding down, there's no reason for him not to get the rest of the major league season to try to establish himself.

The single greatest problem of the 2012 Twins has been the starting rotation, and with an 0-7 record in 10 starts, Hendriks has been part of the problem. With his 9-3, 2.20 record in Triple A this year, he might be part of the solution too. But they're only going to find out if they let him pitch.

Liam Hendricks and Cole DeVries

Liam Hendriks leaves the Comerica Field mound
on his way to Rochester.

Liam Hendriks had another rough outing Monday -- four innings, four runs, didn't get an out in the fifth inning after being handed a 5-1 lead -- and the Twins sent him back to Rochester on Tuesday and brought back Cole DeVries.

This is one of those moves that require me to remind myself that the men who make these decisions are closer to the situation than I am. I am an Outsider. There is much I do not know.

But off what I do know, I don't particularly care for this move.

Hendriks has not pitched well. That's obvious -- 0-5, 7.04 ERA, 10 homers allowed in 38.3 innings. DeVries, meanwhile, is 2-1, 3.43 in 21 innings (and five homers allowed) in his two brief major league stints.

But ... one of them figures to have a chance to be a rotation regular for this team, and that's Hendriks, who is four years younger than DeVries and has been consistently better than the Minnesotan in the minors.

Remember the Rule of 30 -- start judging a pitcher AFTER he has 30 major league starts on his resume. Yes, there have been pitchers who hit the majors running. But Greg Maddux was 8-18, 5.59 after his first 32 starts. Tom Glavine was 9-21, 4.76 after 43 starts. On a lower level of career success, Brad Radke was 11-14, 5.32 in his first season (28 starts).

Hendriks has a 3.29 career ERA in 16 Triple A starts. I don't think Triple A hitters are going to teach him much. (DeVries' Triple A ERA is 4.39.)

Hendriks is only going to get better if he faces tougher competition. This team isn't going anywhere. Investing starts in Hendriks now has a better chance of long-term returns than investing them in DeVries.

Gumming up the rotation outlook

Liam Hendriks allowed three runs in 6.1 innings Tuesday.

Liam Hendriks took the mound Tuesday evening working a wad of chewing gum. It appeared to work as well for the Aussie as it has for Francisco Liriano; while Hendriks lost again, he pitched well (92 pitches, 61 strikes, first strikes to 15 of the 25 batters).

FSN made it sound during the pregame that Hendriks was pitching for his rotation job. If so, it suggests some misplaced priorities in the organization, that people are taking the "we're only 7.5 games out of first" thing too seriously.

Yeah, the Twins entered Tuesday's game 7.5 games out of first. They also entered it with the second-worst record in the American League. And they exited Tuesday 8.5 out of first, and with the worst record in the American League.

Making decisions on the basis that this is a contending team strikes me as a bit foolish. Priority One should be: Identify, develop and protect the pieces of a future contending rotation.

Hendriks, for all his struggles in the majors this season — and he has indeed struggled — is more likely to be such a piece than anybody they can replace him with right now. His numbers in Rochester (5-0 in seven starts, 1.94 ERA, 42 strikeouts in 46 innings) suggest that hitters in the International League have nothing to teach him.

Hendriks' growing pains may be frustrating for Ron Gardenhire and Co., but they're for the best in the long run.

Liam Hendriks and the 2013 rotation

Liam Hendriks has
eight major league starts
with a record of 0-4, 7.40.

Today begins Liam Hendriks' second attempt to secure a spot in the Minnesota starting rotation, which has been about as stable as a rockslide.

There's a lazy line about a team that's buried in the standings, as the Twins are, that "they have nothing to play for." Those silly enough to believe that, believe everything that isn't the postseason is nothing, and that's not so. Even bad teams, and particularly the players on bad teams, have goals to reach for.

One of the Twins goals is to find, develop and protect the pieces of a workable starting rotation for future seasons.

As we peer from today's vantage point into the unlit future of 2013, I see three groups of candidates for that rotation:

The first group consists of Nick Blackburn and Scott Diamond. Blackburn is here not because he's earned it with his pitching, but because he has a guaranteed contract. Diamond has earned it with results; even in his loss Thursday night to Philadelphia, he wasn't all that bad (14 ground balls, three fly balls; 65 strikes, 35 balls). He just gave up a couple of homers, and got no run support. It happens. Diamond's ERA is now 2.13; double it, and you still have a reasonable starting pitcher.

The second group is Hendriks, all by himself. Of all the starting pitchers in the Twins system, he's the most ready for a major league job. Not necessarily the best prospect of the bunch — I'd still prefer Kyle Gibson's pending career to Hendriks' — but the most ready to step in now.

The third group is everybody else; flawed with possibilities. Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano are pending free agency; Gibson and Alex Wimmers are rehabbing injuries; Scott Baker is both; Cole DeVries and P.J. Walters are limited by their stuff.

Over the coming weeks/months, Hendriks will either rise into the first level or sink to the third.

Notes from the weekend

Francisco Liriano threw first-pitch strikes
to18 of the 24 Cubs he faced Sunday.

Francisco Liriano didn't have a very good line at the end of his outing Sunday — four earned runs in 5.2 innings — but he probably deserved better statistically than he got.

So it's two good-to-outstanding starts since his return to the rotation, one OK one. And they've all been against bad teams, so I'm still wary of jumping on the bandwagon, and I suspect the general managers with whom Terry Ryan will be talking trade in the coming weeks will be wary also.

Which is fine. There's plenty of time between now and the trading deadline, and if Liriano is going to be worth trading, it will be after a sustained period of quality work.

---

I see good and ill in baseball's new draft rules, but one thing the rules have done was speed up the signings. The Twins had 12 players inked by Sunday, and Bryon Buxton, their first-rounder (No. 2 overall) was to arrive in the Twin Cities today for his physical.

I rather expect that the Buxton signing will come Tuesday, and he'll get to take some batting practice in Target Field before reporting to Fort Myers to begin his professional career with the Twins' Gulf Coast League team.

---

Liam Hendriks is apparently to be recalled to make the start on Saturday, the next time the Twins need a fifth starter. I said a while back that I expected Hendriks wouldn't be recalled until the team expected him to stick.

If so, recalling Hendriks now suggests to me that it's going to be a while before Carl Pavano comes off the disabled list.

---

As a self-described "Strat nerd" — at least a sporadic one — I had to take note of the two Minnesotans who last week went for the Guinness world record for consecutive hours playing a board game. Their game was Strat-O-Matic baseball, and they topped 61 hours when they finally called it quits Sunday.

Believe it or not, they're both married.

The holes in the rotation

I missed out on almost all the Twins four-game winning streak last week while on my minor league journey. The games and my schedule were so aligned that even with the MLB At Bat app I was out of touch for all but a handful of innings.

So I missed the good stuff and was back in the loop for the latest -- and perhaps the last -- exhibition of pitching malpractice from Jason Marquis.

It may seem inarguable that Marquis should be out of his job, but the Twins haven't yet made it so. And it may be that putting Nick Blackburn on the disabled list has given Marquis a bit more rope.

The Twins have one (temporary) rotation hole to fill. Release Marquis, and they have a lasting hole to fill. What are their options?

1) Francisco Liriano. Ron Gardenhire has said that the Liriano-to-the-bullpen move was intended to be temporary, that he wants Liriano back in the rotation sooner rather than later.

Liriano got through some high-leverage outings during the winning streak. I don't know if he was so good that Gardenhire can feel confident that Liriano is ready to return to starting -- and I would think that they'd want to avoid starting him until they are sure they won't be pulling him out of the rotation again.

2) Liam Hendricks. The Aussie, demoted after four increasingly ineffective starts, has been impressive in three Triple A starts: 2-0, 1.93, 16 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He remains the best long-term starting prospect in the upper levels of the system.

3) Cole DeVries, a right-handed pitcher, Minnesota native, 27 years old, at Rochester. His 1-4, 4.20 record  isn't impressive; his walk/strikeout ratio is. Seth Stohs, who knows the Twins system better than anybody else not employed by the team, is agitating for DeVries to get his shot.

4) Brian Duensing. He's been effective as a relief pitcher, and Gardenhire was talking a while back about returning him to the rotation on the throughly correct logic that his bullpen work was of little use if the starters were taking the team out of games early.

Duensing lost his starting job last year because he couldn't get right-handers out. So far, he's gotten the job done against righties.

5) Drew Butera. OK, not really. But the catcher showed off mid-90s velocity in his inning of work mopping up Sunday's mess, and didn't appear to be working all that hard.

Sort of makes me wonder if he shouldn't have been made a pitcher from the get-go.

Late Night: Weaver no-hits Twins 9-0

Jered Weaver and Chris Iannetta celebrate after the
last out of Weaver's no-hitter.

Game story here

Box score here

And the season just gets worse for the Twins. They have an off day today, and I expect to see some changes.

Begin with Liam Hendriks. He couldn't make it out of the third inning on Wednesday. That's two straight poor starts for the rookie, and his ERA is an even 9.00.

The starting rotation is the single biggest problem on this team; none of the starters have been effective. Hendriks is the easiest to change out, and also the one with the best future. Let him learn in Triple A.

Potential replacements: Either Anthony Swarzak (moved out of the bullpen) or Scott Diamond (now in Triple A.)

Hendriks can be optioned. Matt Maloney cannot, but his ERA (after getting two outs and a bruise on his calf from a line drive) is 7.36, so there's a real good chance he'll clear waivers. I think the Twins will find out. I hope they can keep him; he may be a Quadruple A pitcher (good in the minors, not good enough to pitch in the majors), but I still believe he can be an asset in the majors. He isn't right now.

Another guy who'd have to be waived is Clete Thomas, who has now struck out 16 times in 28 plate appearances with Minnesota. The Twins are carrying him rather than Ben Revere as an outfield reserve because Revere can't throw and the use they have for an extra outfielder is in right, but Thomas isn't getting it done.

Chris Parmelee probably isn't going down just yet, if only because of the uncertainty about Justin Morneau, but Parmelee's average is down to .220 and he hasn't had a hit since his beaning. He hasn't had an extra base hit since April 19.

Most of these are minor moves. One starting pitcher, a position player who's been in the lineup about half the time, a bench guy and a long reliever. Changing them out isn't going to turn the Twins season around.

But something's got to give.

Grousing after a win

Alexi Casilla has had repeated opportunities to claim a regular middle infield job. He's always handed the job back -- sometimes through injury, more often with slipshod play.

So his mental error on Friday -- failing to cover first base on a sac bunt in the sixth inning -- is worthy of notice.

The inning begin with a play Casilla didn't make that was originally scored an error and later changed to a hit. Hit or error, he should have, but didn't, make the play. The next man bunted, and Casilla didn't get to the bag. Liam Hendriks walked the thrid batter, then induced a double play, which scored the first runner to tie the game at 2. Then Evan Longoria untied with with a two-run homer.

Rerun the inning with Casilla still not making the original play but getting the out on the sac bunt. The walk puts runners on first and second, one out (rather than loading the bases with no outs); the double play ends the inning, and the Twins still lead 2-1.

On the other hand ... the sixth inning damage makes Hendriks' line score a more accurate representation of how he pitched. Coming into the sixth, the rookie from Australia had allowed one run on two hits and a walk, which looks pretty good. But he had barely more strikes than balls, and that isn't good.

He wound up with four earned runs allowed in 5.6 innings, 56 strikes and 45 balls.  He can do better than that, and he will.

After Baker: Hendriks or Swarzak?

Jason Marquis was slated to pitch the third game
of the season. Then Liam Hendriks was. And when
game time arrived, it was Anthony Swarzak who got the ball.

A very minor silver lining to Scott Baker being out for the season: We won't have to listen this year to Bert Blyleven complaining that Baker doesn't pitch "down in the zone."

Would that we could. 

A healthy Baker -- not that he's had a healthy season since 2009 -- figured to be the best starter in the Minnesota rotation. He and Francisco Liriano were the only members of the projected rotation with an established strikeout rate above average, and Liriano is maddeningly inconsistent.

The assumption here in the wake of Baker's loss was that Liam Hendriks is in line for the rotation berth. He was, after all the man designated to fill in for Baker when the Twins thought it would be a relatively short-term opening.

Jason Marquis paid
for a steak and lobster
post-game spread
for his short-term
teammates in
New Britain this week.

But multiple reports Thursday had it as a competition between Hendriks and Anthony Swarzak, who stepped in for Hendriks in Baltimore when the Aussie went down with food poisoning.

Swarzak is to start today against Texas; Hendriks is scheduled to face the Rangers on Sunday. Jason Marquis is expected to return from his minor-league sojourn next week to reclaim one rotation spot, leaving one spot for the other two.

Had the rotation been sound coming out of spring training, Hendriks would certainly have been optioned out to Rochester. It may be that he — and in the long run, the Twins — would benefit if he were still in the minors. Hendriks has a higher ceiling than Swarzak, but I'm not sure that he would be immediately superior.

When Marquis is brought up, somebody has to lose his spot on the 25-man roster. If Swarzak wins the rotation spot, it's a pretty easy call — Hendriks goes down to Triple A, where he was expected to be anyway. If Hendriks is in the rotation, Swarzak goes to the bullpen, and displaces probably either Alex Burnett or Jeff Gray.

Burnett has an option left; Gray does not. That might be all the front office needs to know on this decision.

What will happen when Kyle Waldrop is ready ... well, that's a bridge to cross when they get there.

Liam Hendriks and the 30-start rule

Scott Baker made just 11 pitches Thursday for the Fort Myers Miracle before abandoning the effort with a still-sore elbow.

Liam Hendriks has
a career strikeout rate
in the minors of
8.2 per nine innings.

Scott Baker last year
had a career-high
strikeout rate.

Baker's problems bode ill for the Twins, as he is one of just two starters they have with an established ability to miss bats (the other being the inconsistent Francisco Liriano). It does offer Liam Hendriks an opportunity to get his career going and establish the Brad Radke comparison as more than a theory.

Hendriks made four starts for the Twins at the end of 2011's death march, and his numbers were not impressive. If he stays in the rotation all season -- hardly a safe bet if the five veterans get and remain healthy (which is hardly a safe bet itself) -- his numbers may still look ugly.

Which won't disturb me. Look at Radke's first year: A 5.32 ERA. Or, on higher career level, Greg Maddux: 5.52 ERA in a five-start cuppa coffee, followed by a 5.61 ERA in 27 starts the next year.

I call it the 30-start rule for young pitchers: It's what they do after they've gotten 30 major league starts that matter, that establish whether they belong in the majors.

Just making 30 starts without breaking down physically is a substantial achievement; just look at Liriano. But for many pitchers, and particularly those who -- like Radke, Maddux and Hendriks -- lack overwhelming velocity -- those 30 starts are a learning experience. They've had sufficient success in the minors to get the chance; now they have to learn how to make their stuff work at the game's highest level.

This is a big reason why contenders are reluctant to trust rookies with starting rotation berths. If you need 95 wins, it's difficult to turn a fifth of your games over to on-the-job-training. At this point, the Twins have little choice. Indeed, I'd rather take my chances on Hendriks than on Nick Blackburn or Marquis.