Goodbye, Correia

Kevin Correia's final numbers with the Twins:
14-26, 4.49.

Ask and ye shall receive.

A week ago in the print column, I called for Kevin Correia to be moved off the Twins roster to make room for pitchers who figure to be of use in 2015.

And on Sunday, the veteran right-hander was sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers for the always-in-demand player to be named later.

We don't know who the PTNL is, and as far as I'm concerned, it doesn't much matter. Correia's roster spot is more valuable. When him gone, Tommy Milone is called up for tonight's start. Milone is better than Correia, and he figures to be around for a few years.

Another move is coming today when Joe Mauer (remember him?) is activated from the disabled list. My guess is that Oswaldo Arcia will go on the disabled list; he's missed the last two games with a sore back, and the word Sunday was that it hadn't improved from Saturday.

Yet another rotation move is likely this week with Ricky Nolasco, who went 5.2 innings in Cedar Rapids on Sunday in the final game of what the Kernels were billing as the "Rehab Homestand." Presumably he'll dislodge Yohan Pino from the rotation, although not necessarily from the roster. I wouldn't stunned if the roster spot came from a bullpen arm, with Pino moving to a relief role.

The Twins project to have a September rotation of, in some order, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Milone, Nolasco and Trevor May. That's not a bunch of Cy Young candidates, but it's better than the September rotations we've seen the past few years. And it might be the rotation next April as well.

The rotation as it stands now

Ricky Nolasco's 2012 card.

With Ricky Nolasco still awaiting his physical before he is officially in the fold, here's how I see the Twins rotation shaping up:

1) Nolasco. While he's nobody's idea of a Cy Young contender, he clearly has the best track record on this roster. A third- or fourth guy in a good rotation, such as the Dodgers last year.

2) A pitcher to be named later. The Twins will add at least one more veteran starter this offseason. Count on it.

3) Kevin Correia. He was better in 2013 than I expected, but even that level wouldn't keep him in the rotation of a playoff caliber club.

4) Kyle Gibson. It's time to see what he's got. If he doesn't come out of spring training in the big league rotation, something's wrong. Ideally, by the end of the season he will have climbed higher on this list.

5) Somebody from the grab bag of 2013 returnees. My personal favorite is Scott Diamond, but the front runner is probably Sam Deduno. Other possibilities would include Andrew Albers. Vance Worley and Liam Hendriks.

The rotation that opens isn't likely to be the rotation for 162 games, of course. If 2014 goes the way the Twins hope, Alex Meyer and/or Trevor May will push their way in at some point. I don't see either doing that to start the season.

Eye on 2014: Outlining the starting rotation

It's time for the Twins to commit a rotation job to Kyle Gibson.

This is already the running theme of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins: Fix the starting rotation.

Oh, the Twins had plenty of other issues. They were near the bottom of the league in runs scored, so the hitters weren't real productive. They were last in the American League in defensive efficiency — the percentage of balls in play they turned into outs — so the glovework wasn't helping.

There's good reason to focus on the rotation. The wave of top-prospect talent that's coming figures to fix those offensive and defensive woes (at least as long as the aching joints of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton aren't so serious as to short-circuit their promise). Those problems will largely fix themselves without importing outside talent.

It's harder to make that case about the rotation, partly because the Twins are light on quality arms in the upper levels of the farm system and partly because the attrition rate for pitchers is so high.

Let's do a rough draft of the 2014 rotation:

Kevin Correia will be part of it. Not that he's, you know, good.  He wouldn't crack the five-man rotation of any of the four teams that got past the wild-card round of the playoffs. But he's under contract, and the Twins won't have five better options. He's the best starter they have, which is another way of stating the problem.

Kyle Gibson. He's 26 already — 26 and still unestablished. It's time for the 2009 first-round pick to sink or swim.

Another 2013 holdover. One arm from the bunch of (alphabetically) Andrew Albers, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendriks and Vince Worley. I figure that, out of those five, one is capable of providing a decent season. There's a case to be made for each; there's drawbacks to each. I have no problem with devoting a rotation spot to one. I don't want to rely on those five to fill two spots. It's OK to expect something from 20 percent of that field; 40 percent is pushing it.

Left out of this are the two power arms who spent 2013 in Double A New Britain and are currently working in the Arizona Fall League, Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Meyer had arm issues in midseason, May hasn't mastered his control. I don't expect them to jump up to the American League to start the season. Midseason at best with these two.

That leaves two rotation spots to fill from the outside, whether via free agency or trade. We'll get into that in future posts.

Reconsidering Kevin Correia

Kevin Correia has topped 173 innings this season,
the second highest total of his career.

I was not particularly happy last winter when the Twins gave Kevin Correia a two-year contract. I complained about it here and here at the time.

As the first season of that deal winds down, I have to admit that Correia has been better than I expected — a 4.31 ERA, about a run lower than I expected him to put up in his first season in the DH league. He built that ERA in part on his highest strikeout rate since 2010 and the lowest walk rate of his career. And he hasn't missed a start to date.

Correia leads the 2013 Twins in wins, starts, innings and strikeouts. (Also in losses, hits allowed and home runs allowed.) He will be their only pitcher to qualify for the ERA title.

Sam Deduno and Andrew Albers were better on a per-inning basis, but they didn't match Correia's workload combined.

The Twins got what they were after from Correia. But it's hardly a secret that a team with him as their top starter is a team with pitching trouble. And the Twins remain a team with pitching trouble.

Late night: Mariners 8, Twins 2

Kevin Correia walks back to the rubber as Nick Franklin
rounds the bases with his three-run homer in the second
inning. Correia didn't get through the inning.

Box score here

Game story here

This one was over early.

Kevin Correia gave up six runs in the second inning Thursday night; he faced 13 batters, eight of whom reached base, four of them with extra base hits. Not a good start by any standard.

Correia ended April with an 2.33 ERA; it's now 4.56 and rising. His ERA since the start of May is 5.60.

I had hoped that he'd be pitching well enough to draw some trade interest this month; I can't imagine that happening.

Grading the Twins rotation

Scott Diamond shone once more in a day game; for his
short career, his day ERA is 3.32, his night ERA 4.27.

Scott Diamond had his third straight quality start Wednesday, but it was the first time this season he was truly the ground-ball machine of 2012. According to Baseball Reference, he had 13 ground balls and five fly balls Wednesday, bringing him to a 40/35 split for the season.

Diamond's breakout 2012 was all about avoiding walks and getting grounders, so Wednesday was a welcome sign. I'll pick a nit and say I'd like to see him break past six innings next time out; while the bullpen has been very good, the rotation needs to eat more outs.

The Twins have used six starters so far. Vance Worley's had six starts, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey five each, Diamond four, Liam Hendriks and Pedro Hernandez two each.

I classify the starters into three camps:

1) Semi-established: Diamond and Worley. These are the guys I can envision being part of the rotation for the next contending Twins team. Worley's had a difficult go of things so far: 0-4, 7.22 with less than 29 innings in the six starts, and his strikeout rate is down almost two per nine innings.

Indications are that Worley's leash is long, and it ought to be. But he's not doing well.

I'll give Diamond a C for the season so far. Worley has to be earning an F.

2) The disposable veterans: Correia and Pelfrey, the veterans brought in a free agents. I can't argue with Correia's results, even if I doubt he can sustain them. Pelfrey's been brutal. An A for Correia, another F for Pelfrey.

3) The fifth starters: Hendriks and Hernandez. I fully expect the Twins to cycle a number of pitchers through the rotation looking for someone to break through as Diamond did in 2012. Hendriks got the first shot and was quickly supplanted by Hernandez.

I'll give Hendriks a D; he wasn't all that awful in his two starts, but he did get sent down, and unlike last year, he hasn't dominated Triple A upon his return. If and when the Twins swap out another rotation piece, it probably won't be Hendriks getting the call. Cole De Vries and Sam Deduno are more likely (not that either is ready yet).

The left-handed Hernandez has split time between the rotation and long relief since his return, a pattern imposed by the offdays and weather problems, and has put up an ERA of 2.35, which is not to be sneered at. I'll give him a B, but, as with Correia, I don't really expect him to continue at that level.

Here's a key difference between Diamond and Hernandez, at least as far as one can judge Hernandez off 15.1 innings: Hernandez does not appear to be a worm killer. Baseball Reference has him at 20 grounders and 30 fly balls so far.

More on Kevin Correia

Kevin Correia threw eight shutout innings Sunday and
has now had more starts of seven or more innings (five) than
he had all of 2012 with Pittsburgh (three).

I was sharply critical in this blog all winter about the signing of Kevin Correia, which hasn't stopped the veteran right-hander from having a superb April.

Correia's superb April, in turn, has not convinced me that he's a pitcher worthy of a multi-year commitment.

I doubled down on my skepticism about him in the Monday print column, in which I traced his early success to a very high double-play rate, a very low home run rate, and a very low walk rate and concluded that the first two factors were probably unsustainable. No pitcher can consistently have a league-average groundball rate and a very high double play rate; no pitcher can have a league-average groundball rate and almost no home runs allowed.

But that's what Correia had done through his first four starts — and now through his first five starts.

The stats I cited in Monday's column were garnered from Correia's Baseball Reference page on Saturday, before his eight innings of shutout ball Sunday against a very good Texas Rangers lineup. How the relevant stats changed with that start:

Walk rate: Dipped from 1.3 walks per nine innings to 1.2. (As I said in the column, this may be a sustainable improvement; history says pitchers who have good control working for other teams have even lower walk rates pitching for the Gardenhire Twins.)

Strikeout rate: Dropped from 4.1 K/9 to to 3.7. Both numbers are red flags.

Strikeout/walk ratio: Dropped from 3.25 to 3 strikeouts for each walk. Still very good, and obviously based more on not walking anybody than on striking hitters out. (In fairness to Correia, his one walk allowed Sunday should have been his third strikeout. But even if the home plate umpire hadn't blown that 3-2 call, Correia's stats would still be lopsided.)

Double play rate: Fell from a lofty 42 percent to 28 percent, still more than twice the league average.

Ground ball/fly ball ratio: He now is at 0.88 grounders to fly balls, slightly higher than league average (and his own career average, which is a close match to league average).

Percentage of fly balls that become home runs: Down to 3.6 percent, less than half the league average (and his own career average, which again is a close match to league average).

And therein lies my unwillingness to buy into the idea that Kevin Correia is truly a better pitcher now than he has been. His groundball/fly ball tendencies remain essentially as they have been for years; it's the results that are out of the ordinary. And at some point, those results will snap back to normal as well.

The case against Kevin Correia

Kevin Correia has a 46-43 record over the past four
seasons with San Diego and Pittsburgh.

The Twins on Thursday made the signing of veteran starter Kevin Correia official.

They could just as well have stacked the $10 million in a big pile and lit a match to it.

I said this earlier: I will measure the Twins pitcher acquisitions by their likelihood of meeting or beating the Diamond Standard: 200 innings, sub-4.00 ERA. Vance Worley, acquired in the Ben Revere trade, is likely to at least meet that standard. The two prospects the Twins traded for, with their upside, they meet that standard.

Correia does not. He's no real improvement on the likes of Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks, P.J. Walters and Sam Deduno. He will, however, cost 10 times more than any of those guys will -- $5 million a year (average) as opposed to $500,000. And for two years rather than one.

If the Twins really need to spend $5 million on a starting pitcher who can't miss bats, they could just return Nick Blackburn to the rotation. Which they might, since they're committed to spending that money anyway.

There may be a team for which a pitcher such as Correia is a sensible signing -- a contending team with four set starters, with no reasonable prospect perched in the high minors. The Twins today are not that team. As I said in the Diamond Standard post, the Twins need front-of-the-rotation arms. They have plenty of back-of-the-rotation options.

I fear that Correia is a "appease Gardenhire" gesture from Terry Ryan. Gardy's job is perceived to be on the line in 2013, and Ryan's moves this month had not done much to support the 2013 club. Yes, he added Worley, but he created a gap in center field in the process. Yes, he added a couple of power-armed prospects, but neither Alex Meyer nor Trevor May will be of use in the majors in the coming season.

So Gardy now has an established veteran for his rotation. Goody goody gumdrops. Correia won't be there if and when the Twins get good again, and he's not a good bet to help Gardenhire stick around for that revival either.

Kevin Correia's missing dimension

Kevin Correia has struck out just 4.6 men per nine innings
over the past two seasons, both of which were spent with
the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Twins have still not confirmed (or denied) signing free-agent right-handed starter Kevin Correia, presumably because there are still details to finalize, such as the pitcher passing a physical.

I'll wait until it is actually official, and until Terry Ryan and Co. have given their rationale, to rip the signing. For now: I don't like the idea of signing him, I don't like the reported contract (2 years, $10 million), and I doubt a convincing rationale for it can be made.

But I wanted to take note of a LaVelle Neal tweet of Monday evening, in which the Star Tribune beat writer said Correia's average velocities on his pitches were:

• Fastball: 90.3 mph
• Cutter: 88.1
• Slider: 85.9
• Change-up: 85.9
• Curve: 77

Five pitches, and four of them with less than 5 mph of separation among them. That's not a real change-up, or at least it cannot realistically serve the function of a change-up. It's not different enough from the fastball.

Pitching is an art in four dimensions. The strike zone has width, height and depth (that last a factor ignored by the animated strike-zone graphics displayed during most TV game broadcasts). The fourth dimension is time, the ability of the pitcher to throttle up and down.

Earl Weaver, the great manager of the Baltimore Orioles' glory years, was an early adherent of radar guns. Not because Weaver was fascinated by 95-mph fastballs, but because the guns provided objective evidence of pitch separation. The guns made it possible for Scott McGregor, a lefty with almost no velocity, to develop gaps of about 12 mph between his fast ball, his straight change and his curve -- and that made it possible for McGregor to win at least 13 games in eight consecutive seasons.

Correia lacks that dimension to his craft. And if he hasn't developed it at age 32, I don't know that he's ever going to.