The first (player) move of the offseason

With or without Derek Falvey on board, with or without an announcement, the Twins made some moves:

It appears #MNTwins have outrighted Milone, Beresford, Albers, Dean and Schafer off 40-man roster. No longer listed on team web site.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) October 17, 2016

No surprises there, really, not even Tommy Milone, who Berardino later tweeted will declare himself a free agent rather than accept the assignment to Triple A Rochester. The veteran cleared waivers during the season, which suggests that trade interest in him was nil; he spent September in the Twins bullpen; and he's arbitration eligible.

So the Twins officially now have 35 players on their 40-man roster, but there are three players who have to be brought off the 60-day disabled list and restored to the 40 -- Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Danny Santana. And Kurt Suzuki, free-agent to be, technically remains on the roster until after the World Series. So realistically, the Twins now have three open roster slots.

It's a good bet there are more minor leaguers they want to protect than that, so there will be more deletions to come. These were the most obvious ones.

Out of indy ball

Logan Schafer made his Twins debut Monday evening. He became the 48th player used by the team this season, tying the Twins franchise record; considering the likelihood that at least one September callup will be making his major league debut, we probably should expect a new standard for roster churn.

Shuffling four dozen players through the active roster in five months is a sign of a bad team (as is the won-loss record, as is the current 11-game losing streak, as is ...).

Here's another one: Two of the 25 currently on the active roster were in independent ball earlier this season. Schafer and Andrew Albers -- today's starting pitcher -- both performed earlier this year for the Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League. (And Buddy Boshers, on the disabled list, was in the Atlantic League in 2015.)

Players wind up in the Atlantic League -- or the American Association of the St. Paul Saints -- when the 30 major league organizations see no purpose to having them on their minor league teams. That the Twins pulled two players out of that baseball limbo to help staff their high minors isn't exactly unique, but that they have given those two major league time is pretty much an indictment of the farm system.

I do not criticize players for playing; there is an honor and dignity in squeezing whatever one can out of the game and one's talent. My criticism is of the organization. Delving repeatedly into indy ball for players is the scouting equivalent of reopening an abandoned mine. The odds are very much against finding a fresh vein of high-grade ore.

Notes, quotes and comment

Thursday was my biweekly appearance on KMSU to talk Twins with Jim Gullickson, and anybody who was aware of what was actually going on at Target Field at that moment -- I wasn't -- must have thought us a bit deranged with our optimism.

Nothing much good happened for the Minnesota team Thursday in either game. Jose Berrios got knocked out after two innings; Buddy Boshers was shelled and put on the disabled list; Tommy Milone, given another start after Wednesday's rainout, only lasted three innings and is to get an MRI on his left shoulder. Eduardo Escobar wound up pitching an inning in the opener, and Andrew Albers, who I never thought I'd see again in a Twins uniform, wore it in the second game:

At 3rd, Albers tossed 108 pitchers tonight, most ever in a game by a reliever for #MNTwins since starting to track pitch count in 1987...

— TwinsRadio (@TwinsRadio) August 12, 2016

Just ugly.

---

Darin Mastroianni, who spent a good chunk of the season on the major league disabled list, was released after the Twins shipped Bryon Buxton back to Rochester earlier this week. Mastroianni's about to turn 31, hasn't hit (or stayed healthy) in his limited major league time and wasn't having a particularly good season in Triple A, so he might be done.

If so, too bad. I never thought him a potential regular, much less a star, but he's probably no worse a player than some reserve outfielders who have found ways to hang onto major league roster spots. What, really, is the difference between Mastroianni and Shane Robinson as players? The breaks went against Mastro.

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Today is, theoretically, the final game of Alex Rodriguez's career, although there is no shortage of speculation that A-Rod would rather keep playing than actually do the special advisor gig he and the Yankees announced last week. (He's gonna get his money either way.)

Apparently Buster Olney of ESPN has named the Twins as a potential landing place for Rodriguez. I can't see it. The Twins have more than enough corner infield/DH types on their roster -- Joe Mauer, Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe, Kennys Vargas, plus Byung Ho Park in Rochester. Giving a roster spot to A-Rod, much less at-bats, would be foolish.

If Rodriguez does keep playing, Miami is a more likely option. Owner Jeffrey Loria is notably foolish, and he has a Yankee fetish that apparently must be appeased regularly (these are probably connected). Plus Miami is Rodriguez's hometown.

Notes, quotes and comment

Yet another ex-Twin returns on a minor league deal. This time it's Matt Guerrier.

Guerrier's 2013 season was ended by a significant injury -- his flexor muscle had to be reattached to the bone -- and spring training opens at the beginning of the end of his rehab. Rehab is supposed to be six to eight months, and it will have been six months since the surgery.

So there's a lot unknown about his condition or ability at this point. What we do know is that he's 35 and wasn't as effective in the National League the past three years as he generally was with the Twins.

It's a low risk, low reward signing. I don't see Guerrier, even if he makes the club, playing a major role in the bullpen, and I doubt he'll make the club. My expectation is that the final spot will still come down to Ryan Pressly vs. Michael Tonkin vs. an out-of-options starter.

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More prospect rankings: Keith Law of ESPN released his Top 100 list Wednesday. I can't comment intelligently about his opinions, since I don't pay for ESPN's content (I reserve my financial support on such things for entities not part of the Death Star of sports journalism).

But I do know that the Twins on his list are:

• OF Byron Buxton, No. 1
• 3B Miguel Sano, No. 8
• 2B/OF Eddie Rosario, No. 49
• RHP Alex Meyer, No. 62
• RHP Kohl Stewart, No. 76

Law has Meyer and Stewart considerably lower than other rankers do. I don't object to that; both had some physical issues last year.

I saw that Meyer said in a TwinsFest interview that his shoulder soreness is gone and that his most recent MRI is cleaner than when he was drafted. That latter is ... let's say I'm skeptical that two years of pitching pro ball hasn't done something to the shoulder.

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The Andrew Albers-to-Korea deal is now official. The lefty gets a nice payday, and the Twins get an open roster spot, which they will probably need this spring, if not before. (Guerrier, signed to a minor league deal, does not count against the 40-man roster; neither do Jason Bartlett or Jason Kubel.)

Andrew Albers and pitching depth

Andrew Albers had a sensational first two
starts with the Twins last year.

Terry Ryan acknowledged during Thursday night's Diamond Awards that Andrew Albers, who was the Twins' minor league pitcher of the year, won't be in the organization much longer. The lefty has a deal to pitch in South Korea, and the Twins will accommodate him.

As I said the other day, it's a good deal for Albers, who will get more money for one year in Korea than he has in his entire pro career so far. While Ryan doesn't sound enthused about losing the 28-year-old, Albers obviously isn't prominent in Minnesota's pitching plans. They're not losing that much.

Still, pitching is always in shorter supply than we think in January. There aren't a lot of achy elbows and sore shoulders right now. A month from now, when spring training bullpen sessions are under way, there will be.

Half of Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects for the Twins are pitchers: Alex Meyer, Kohl Stewart, J.O. Berrios, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor May. It's easy to look at such a list and say, That will someday be the Twins' rotation, and maybe it will. But the odds are against it.

One can pick that list apart too. Meyer missed a good chuck of 2013. Stewart is just 18 and a Type One diabetic who barely pitched in rookie ball. Berrios is a short righty without a lot of projection who has yet to pitch above High A ball. Thorpe is even younger than Stewart. May repeated the Eastern League last year and led the league in walks allowed.

These are the most promising hurlers in what may be the most loaded minor league system in the game, but none is a sure thing. "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect" is more cynical than I care to accept, but there's truth behind it.

Which is why, even though Albers doesn't offer much upside, and even though the Twins appear to have plenty of alternatives both for the major league and Triple A rotations, there is reason for them to be reluctant to let him go.

Andrew Albers, South Korea and the Rochester starting rotation

Andrew Albers
was the Twins
minor league pitcher
of the year in
2013.

The word Tuesday afternoon was that Andrew Albers, a soft-tossing left-handed pitcher who had two superb starts last summer for the Twins followed by eight less impressive ones (5.70 ERA in that stretch), has a deal to pitch in South Korea.

There are hurdles to cross, not the least of which is for the Twins to agree to let Albers go.

Albers has good reason to accept the Korean offer; while he's on the Twins' 40-man roster, he's well down the totem pole. Financially, he's certain to do better there than in Rochester, and it's not easy to see his route into the Twins rotation.

Four starting rotation slots are spoken for -- Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey each have multi-million salaries. In the spring training contest for the fifth starter slot, Albers starts off behind Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond and Vance Worley, if only because those three guys are all out of options, which makes them use-or-lose. Albers has all three of his options remaining; it's easy for the Twins to send him back to Triple A.

And as for a midseason callup ... well, there figures to be some higher ceiling options.

Let's project this out. Let's say Deduno opens the season as the fifth starter, that Diamond is kept as a long reliever, that Ryan Pressly is optioned out to work as a starter (a scenario I described the other day) and that Worley and Kris Johnson don't clear waivers (I don't know that Johnson is out of options, but I presume he is). What does the Rochester rotation look like?

Kyle Gibson, for sure. Presumably Alex Meyer and Trevor May will move up from Double A. Pressly would be a serious possibility, given that he had a respectable 3.87 ERA in 76.2 innings in the majors last year. Albers might be the fifth guy in that scenario. Or maybe Sean Gilmartin would be.  It's crowded, even ignoring the out-of-options crowd.

Even if Albers makes the Rochester rotation, when the Twins need somebody to step into the major league rotation, Albers isn't likely to be the first choice.

The Twins are entering (again) the last year of their affiliation agreement with Rochester, and it's an affiliation they really want to retain. The New York Mets desperately want out of Las Vegas -- nobody wants to have their Triple A team there -- and Rochester has a great deal of appeal to them. Rochester wants a winning club.

Keeping Albers might not do anything for the major league club, but it might be very helpful for making the Red Wings happy with a continuing affiliation with the Twins.

Swing and miss

Vance Worley:
Very low rate of
swing-and-miss

As I've noted in previous posts, Ricky Nolasco doesn't have an overpowering fastball (averages just over 90 mph, according to Baseball Info Systems), and he doesn't throw his fastball even half the time (44 percent fastballs in 2013, 45 percent in 2012, both figures according to BIS).

But he does get swings-and-misses: 17 percent. That's a solid rate for a starter. The Red Sox' top three starters, for example: Jon Lester, 14 percent; John Lackey, 16 percent, Clay Buchholtz, 15 percent.

Phil Hughes, on the other hand, does throw hard (average fastball exceeds 92 mph) and throws his fastball quite a bit (more than 60 percent of the time).

He gets, or did in 2013, somewhat fewer swings and misses, 14 percent.

This should be no surprise — Nolasco's swing-and-miss rate was considerably higher than anybody's in the 2013 Twins rotation, and Hughes would rank up there as well. (Listed in order of starts, each had at least eight):

• Kevin Correia: 10 percent
• Mike Pelfrey (free agent): 10 percent
• Scott Diamond: 10 percent
• Sam Deduno: 13 percent
• Pedro Hernandez (released): 10 percent
• Kyle Gibson: 14 percent
• Vance Worley: 7 percent (wince)
• Andrew Albers: 10 percent
• Liam Hendriks: 14 percent
• P.J. Walters (released): 10 percent

Andrew Albers:
Two-thirds of his
pitches were strikes.

Percentage of pitches that were strikes (called, swinging, fouled or put in play:)

• Nolasco: 64 percent
• Hughes: 67 percent
• Correia: 63 percent
• Pelfrey: 61 percent
• Diamond: 62 percent
• Deduno: 61 percent
• Hernandez: 60 percent
• Gibson: 59 percent (wince)
• Worley: 63 percent
• Albers: 67 percent
• Hendriks: 63 percent
• Walters: 61 percent

Hughes and Andrew Albers really do pound the strike zone.

Contemplating Andrew Albers

Andrew Albers "fired" a two-hit shutout Monday night
against the Cleveland Indians.

Seventeen and a third shutout innings in two starts is certainly an auspicious start to Andrew Albers' major league career. It would be impressive if it came from a hurler with dominating stuff, much less one with Albers' mediocre velocity.

We ought not, obviously, expect him to maintain a 0.00 ERA for long. Nobody's that good. But Albers has carved up minor-league hitters on every level with his mid-80s fastball, and there is precedent for lefties with his skill set to have sustained success. (See Mark Buehrle, Jamie Moyer, and the second half of Frank Tanana's career.) There are also plenty of examples of pitchers with his stuff who didn't make it.

What the guys who succeeded did — and what Albers has done in the minors but which hasn't shown yet in the majors — is strike hitters out at at least something approximating league-average rates.

Albers has just four strikeouts in his 17.1 major league innings, but his minor league K rate overall was 7.7 per nine innings, and it was pretty consistent on every level.

He'll need to find some of that bat-missing magic in the majors if he is to establish that these first two starts were more than a mirage.

Contemplating Andrew Albers and Liam Hendriks

Andrew Albers cleans up after getting
a shaving cream pie following his
major league debut Tuesday.

The Twins this week reached down to Triple A for a pair of starters, both of whom fared well.

Andrew Albers replaced Scott Diamond in the rotation and made an immediate splash with 8.1 shutout innings against Kansas City on Tuesday. Albers' performance was all the more impressive considering how poorly Kevin Correia and Samuel Deduno fared in the other games of the series.

Albers drew some immediate comparisons to Diamond — left-handed, mediocre velocity, from Canada — but the guy who came to mind for me was Mark Buehrle, the long-time White Sox mainstay now with Toronto, also a lefty without an imposing fastball.

Buehrle is notorious for a rapid pace to his pitching, and Albers certainly followed that pattern. In a Twins season marked by excruciatingly long games and pitchers reluctant to make their next pitch -- Mike Pelfrey is not the only one -- it was a refreshing sight.

If what Buehrle does were that simple, more pitchers would be doing it. Albers will certainly get several more opportunities.

Catcher Chris Herrmann and Liam Hendriks
consult in the sixth inning Friday. Hendriks
went 6.1 innings, allowing two runs in
one of his better major-league starts.

One thing in Albers' favor on Tuesday that won't be replicated in his next start: The  Royals almost certainly had a minimal scouting report on him. Not only was it Albers' major league debut, but the Royals and Twins farm systems are remarkably separate. Their Triple A teams are in different leagues, their Double-A teams are in different leagues, their high A teams are in different leagues.

In this case, ignorance was not bliss.

Liam Hendriks' stint was one-and-done; he was called up strictly to make the start in Game Two of Friday's double header and was shipped back to Rochester immediately the Twins's 3-2 extra inning victory.

Hendriks may well be back in September, and there were some positive signs from him against the White Sox Friday, most notably a lack of the nibbling at the edges of the strike zone when ahead in the count.

Still, the Aussie's stock can't be high in the organization. He's having a far worse season in Triple A this year compared to last (9-3, 2.20 in 2012, 3-8, 5.12 this year), and the rationale offered by assistant general manager Rob Antony for picking Hendriks for Friday's game was We didn't have many options.

The sixth starter

P.J. Walters, having been designated for assignment, is now in baseball limbo. He's not officially in the Twins organization, but if nobody claims him on waivers, he can be outrighted to Triple A.

At the moment, the Twins' rotation features, in alphabetical order, Kevin Correia, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. (It will be interesting to see how Ron Gardenhire lines them up coming out of the All-Star break; my guess is that Gibson will be at the end of the line.)

Considering that there's about half the season yet to play, the odds are that bunch will change. If Walters isn't a candidate to move back into the rotation, who is?

The possibilities include:

Pedro Hernandez

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Hernandez has made seven starts in the majors for the Twins (3-1, 5.54) and six for Rochester (2-2, 3.60). If he has a major league career ahead of him, it's probably as a relief pitcher. He'd be a safe place-holder, but that's all.

Cole De Vries was
5-5, 4.11 in his
time with the Twins
in 2012.

Cole De Vries

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Minnesota native would have opened 2013 in the major league rotation but ran into arm issues. He's made nine starts in Rochester and has gone 3-4, 8.16, with just 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Hard to see him being close to a callup.

Liam Hendriks

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Aussie opened with the big club and went down quickly. He dominated the International League last year but has fallen off this year (1-6, 5.05). His status isn't high.

Vance Worley 

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: He's 5-3, 3.81 since his demotion, which looks pretty good compared to his fellow 40-man roster mates. But it comes with just 30 strikeouts in 52 innings. I do expect him to return to the major league rotation this year, but that's more because of what the Twins have invested in him than because he's earned it.

Minor league veteran
Andrew Albers pitched
for Team Canada
in the WBC.

Andrew Albers

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Lefty from Canada, he was just named to the IL all-star team (8-3, 3.00 with 86 K in 99 innings). He's 27 and has spent more time in his career in relief than starting, but he's been a fixture in the Red Wings rotation and is having a fine season. I don't see him as a likely long-term rotation candidate.

Logan Darnell

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Another lefty, he has made one start for the Red Wings after a strong first half with Double A New Britain (6-6, 2.61). He's 24, and this is by far his best minor league performance. Probably behind Albers in terms of getting a chance.

Nick Blackburn:
Forgot he was still
around, didn't you?

Nick Blackburn

Status: Not on the 40-man roster; on rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League
Comment: He makes the list only because he's getting $5.5 million this year, which I believe makes him the Twins' highest-paid pitcher. He's gotta do something in the minors before the Twins will consider letting him try to earn some of his pay in the majors, and I don't think it's real likely. No future benefit from his return; the Twins won't exercise his $8 million option for 2014.

Alex Meyer

Status: Not on the 40; currently on disabled list
Comment: Was shut down with a shoulder issue last month; the Twins say there's no structural damage, but caution is being exercised anyway. Probably the best pitching prospect in the organization, he's 3-3, 3.69 in Double A New Britain with 73 strikeouts in 61 innings. Won't get a callup this year. (Came to Twins in the Denard Span trade.)

Trevor May came
to the Twins in the
Ben Revere trade.

Trevor May

Status: On the 40, pitching in New Britain
Comment: Some good signs from May as he repeats Double A (6-5, 3.98 with 93 K in 95 innings). The control is improving, although his season walk rate (3.9 BB/9) is still too high. He might be a September callup, since he's already on the 40, but he's not going to be yo-yo'd up and down. Expect patience with him.