Quantity, if not quality

The Twins announced Thursday that Logan Darnell, left-handed pitcher, had cleared waivers and been outrighted to Rochester. He'll still be in major league camp, but now as a non-roster invitee rather than as a member of the 40-man roster.

A few days ago I listed 10 lefties (other than Glen Perkins and Tommy Milone) who would be in camp. Now it's 11. And as I've said, out of that kind of bulk numbers I would think at least one would be able to handle a lefty relief role. Branch Rickey used to talk about finding quality out of quantity. This looks like an opportunity to do just that.

Darnell had a pretty solid season for Rochester in 2015, working mostly out of the bullpen before shifting back to the rotation in August. He got a September call-up and promptly fell ill without making a major league appearance.

That was a missed opportunity. Now Darnell is off the 40 and presumably ranks below those who are on the 40 -- Taylor Rogers, Michael Strong, Ryan O'Rourke -- in pursuit of a major league job, and probably below some other non-roster invitees with major league experience (Fernando Abad, maybe Buddy Boshers and Dan Runzler). But the door is still there for him.

Another bullpen lefty option

The Twins on Friday picked up Mike Strong on waivers from Miami. He's a 27-year-old lefty born and raised in Minnesota who has spent five seasons in the Milwaukee organization without a major league appearance. Miami landed him on a waiver claim last month, and now the Twins have done the same.

To make room on the 40-man roster, the Twins designated Logan Darnell for assignment. He too will turn 27 before spring training begins. Unlike Strong, Darnell has been called up twice, once in 2014 when he fared ill, and again last September, when he fell ill and was shut down without ever pitching. Both men have options remaining.

Just going off their minor league numbers, Darnell doesn't appear to be a worse bullpen prospect than Strong, But Strong, it appears, has better raw stuff. Baseball America last spring rated Strong as the Brewers' 29th best prospect (albeit in a rather poorly regarded farm system); Darnell was not among the Twins 30 best in BA's rankings.

From the Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2015's entry on Strong:

His fastball command was much improved, helping set up his curveball and changeup while holding his walks down considerably (2.7 per nine innings) from previous seasons. Strong throws his fastball with confidence in the 88-92 mph range with good movement. His curveball is especially tough on lefthanders and his changeup is average and sometimes a tick above.

That 2014 command apparently faded last year, and really deteriorated when he moved up to Triple A Colorado Springs. My take: If Strong comes into camp throwing strikes, he's got a legitimate chance to win a bullpen job; if not, somebody else will be the primary setup lefty.

---

My mild apologies for skipping the past two days here while I dealt with an illness. It's been a long time since I failed to make my daily post, much less two, but there was nothing obvious I wanted to comment on and I didn't feel like wracking my brains to come up with something.

The September call-ups

Doug Bernier, who
spent half the 2013
season with the Twins,
was named MVP of
the 2014 Red Wings.

The Twins on Monday morning announced eight callups for the expanded September roster, names familiar and otherwise: A.J. Achter, Doug Bernier, Logan Darnell, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Lester Oliveros, Josmil Pinto and Michael Tonkin. They were all with Triple A Rochester, which was eliminated Sunday from playoff contention, and will join the Twins today.

As surmised here earlier, three of them -- Achter, Bernier and Oliveros -- had to be added to the 40-man roster. Of the eight -- nine if you want to count Aaron Thompson, called up during the weekend -- only Achter has never appeared in the majors before.

This collection is heavy with minor league veterans and light on true prospects.The Twins did not call up anybody who is to be first-time eligible for the Rule 5 draft and thus likely to be added to the 40 early in the offseason. That would include Eddie Rosario, who didn't play well enough this year to be rewarded with a month of major league pay and perks but is too good a prospect to expose, and Alex Meyer, who went on the minor league disabled list during the weekend.

Lester Oliveros
will audition this
month for a bullpen
role next year.

The most interesting of the nine, as I look to 2015, are Hicks, Oliveros and Tonkin.

Hicks needs to have a strong September, as I see it. He's twice won jobs in spring training only to flop in the regular season, and I can't see a good reason for the Twins to let him do that a third time.

Oliveros and Tonkin are a pair of hard-throwing righties, either of whom might be a successor to Jared Burton (whose contract is expiring) in a set-up role next year. Oliveros, as you might recall, came to the Twins in the Delmon Young trade in 2011; he's had some injury issues and has returned from Tommy John surgery. (Achter might be put in this group, but his stuff is a notch behind the others.)

Chris Herrmann hit
.304 for Rochester
but just .143 with
the Twins.

Darnell and Thompson are showcasing themselves as potential replacements for Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar as lefty specialists.

Pinto and Herrmann ... I think their purpose is to lighten the load on Kurt Suzuki, who has taken a beating behind the plate in recent days. Theoretically either could push out Eric Fryer as the backup catcher in 2015, but Fryer is the superior receiver, and a reliable backstop seems to be Ron Gardenhire's preference in that role. (Assuming, of course, that Gardy is back next year.)

Herrmann would have a better chance at a backup job with a manager inclined to use the backup catcher in platoon situations -- meaning, to look to give Suzuki his days off against right-handed pitchers and fit the left-handed Herrmann in then. Gardenhire is not such a manager.

Sorting out the rotation choices

The red jersey didn't help Logan Darnell
(Darnell Logan to Dan Gladden)
in his second start.

He didn't get much help from the fielders, but Logan Darnell wasn't good Friday night in his second major league start. The lefty wasn't good in his first start either.

The Twins have given 25 starts so far to Darnell, Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno, Yohan Pino, Kris Johnson and Anthony Swarzak, none of whom seem likely to ever decorate the rotation of a contender. Meanwhile Trevor May, Alex Meyer and now Tommy Milone (who has twice been a rotation regular for a division champ and is 27) fill their Triple A rotation. 

There have been reasons for this, but it is aggravating to see opportunities directed to low-ceiling guys like Pino and Darnell  instead of the pitchers who might actually matter. Milone started two days before the trade, so his presence on the Rochester roster at this moment doesn't matter, but there is no good reason to have him actually pitch for the Red Wings while Darnell and Pino start in the majors. Yet that is apparently the plan.

The failure/inability to prune Kevin Correia from the roster at the trading deadline keeps a rotation spot filled with deadwood. Ricky Nolasco is to begin a rehab assignment next week (he and Joe Mauer will both be with the Cedar Rapids Kernels by Tuesday), and once he's ready to go, he'll certainly be in the rotation. There's too much invested in him. 

This team with a miserable rotation is pretending that there's no room for the kids. And it's not going to get better.

Consider the 2015 starting rotation possibilities on hand. Assume that (a) Correia is not re-signed; (b) the pitchers all are healthy and (c) there are no other additions or subtractions -- the first is likely, the latter two are not -- and the Twins have:

• Nolasco. He has three more years on his contract.
• Phil Hughes. No argument there.
• Kyle Gibson. He's been inconsistent, but by some measures he's been more effective than Hughes.
• Milone. Not a Cy Young candidate, but he has 2.5 years in the Oakland rotation without jeopardizing their status.
• Pelfrey, with one year and $5.5 million left on his contract. 

As matters stand, they don't even need the low-upside fillers (Johnson, Pino, Darnell) to block the high-end prospects next spring. Yikes.

The daily roster move: Polanco down, Darnell up

Logan Darnell is 5-5,
3.43 in Triple A this year.

The Twins are in a period in which they are shuffling bodies around to cover for a rotation vacancy and because they're downshifting from veterans to prospects -- or at least unestablished players -- as it becomes obvious that contention remains an illusion. The upshot is that something marginal is happening every day.

Friday's move was the demotion of Jorge Polanco -- recalled for a day after Kendrys Morales was traded Thursday for a minor leaguer -- to bring up Logan Darnell, who will get the start Saturday in place of Kris Johnson, who was demoted after Monday's start to make room for Yohan Pino, who started Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the true prospect starters -- Alex Meyer and Trevor May -- remain in Rochester.

This is a growing irritant to a vocal block of Twins fans, who are wondering why we're getting a parade of minor league vets in Johnson and Pino and not seeing the guys who could actually matter down the road.

My guess is that the Twins are (a) wary of May's health after he missed almost a month with a calf injury and (b) unwilling to bring Meyer up with his (unofficial) innings limits. I think -- hope might be the more accurate verb -- that the idea is to bring May in to replace Kevin Correia in the next week or so after Correia is traded. (That, of course, is a scenario that assumes Correia will be traded, which may be merely wishful thinking.) I don't expect to see Meyer in Minnesota at all in 2014.

Darnell is sort of a medium ground between the Meyer-May duo and the Johnson-Pino pair: Not as high-ceiling as the former two, younger than the latter two. He's a lefty, and I suspect that his ultimate role, if any, with the Twins will be in the bullpen. Brian Duensing 2.0, perhaps.

As a starter, Darnell's not staying long. If Duensing is on the trade block -- and a contender may well be interested in him and his 2.27 ERA -- Darnell might stick around for a trial in the pen.

Bottom line: Just because Darnell is here today doesn't mean he'll be here tomorrow, and if he's here tomorrow it doesn't mean he's remaining in the rotation. The roster shuffling is far from over.

The future of the rotation

Phil Hughes collects himself Sunday before his first start
in Yankee Stadium as a member of a visiting team.

The Twins starters fared pretty well over the weekend in Yankee Stadium. Working it backwards:

• Sunday: Phil Hughes went eight innings, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks. 
• Saturday: Kevin Correia, my least favored of the starters, went six innings and allowed just one run. 
• Friday: Ricky Nolasco also had six innings of one-run ball.

Nolasco did walk four with just three strikeouts and allowed seven hits, 11 baserunners in 18 outs; Correia had nine hits and one walk, 10 baserunners. So the one-run outcomes seem a bit deceptive. They didn't pitch THAT well.

Still, three quality starts in the tater haven that is the newest rendition of Yankee Stadium isn't bad at all.

Meanwhile, a few noteworthy developments regarding Twins starters past and future in the minors:

Mike Pelfrey interrupted his rehab assignment to have his arm checked out, and what is described as minor nerve irritation was found. He is to have a second exam done by the noted Dr. James Andrews. So he's not close to returning, which is probably for the better. I'm in no hurry to see him pitch again.

Prospect Trevor May, pitching for Triple A Rochester, blew away Gwinnett (Atlanta) with seven shutout innings in his most recent start. He's now 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA and a batting average allowed under .200 for the Red Wings. He's also sporting his lowest walk rate since A ball.

May isn't the only Red Wings starter impressing. Kris Johnson, who came up to start the second game of a doubleheader, has a 1.83 ERA. Logan Darnell, who also had a brief call-up, has a 2.54 ERA with more strikeouts than innings. And Alex Meyer, generally regarded as the best pitching prospect in the organization, has a 3.31 ERA while fanning 10.8 hitters per nine innings. (He's also got a high walk rate).

May, Darnell and Johnson are on the 40-man roster, while Yohan Pino is not. Poor Pino, who has picked up a handful of starts, only has a 1.73 ERA.

The Red Wings have a team ERA of 3.14, and I can only imagine how low it would be without old friend Scott Diamond's 7.51. I don't see Diamond returning to Minneapolis anytime soon. A lot of guys ahead of him.

Here's the thing: One can make a case for bringing up any of the May-Meyer-Darnell-Johnson quartet for the Twins rotation. (I'm arbitrarily leaving Pino out on the basis that the other four are younger and better prospects for the future). But for whom?

Certainly not for Hughes, who has been superb. The Twins have too much invested in Nolasco to change course on him after two months. Kyle Gibson has been up and down, but the Twins really do need to give him a clean shot.

That leaves Correia and Sam Deduno. Correia is in the final year of the two-year contract he signed before 2013, and I think he's a possible piece of trade bait in July. Or even sooner if some teams with postseason ambitions start getting squeezed by injuries. (Or if the Twins can find somebody with a spare center fielder.)

Deduno ... well, his injury history suggests he's not likely to finish the year in the rotation. I'd say keep him in the rotation until he gets hurt.

The Twins will have rotation openings this summer. But they need not be in a hurry to create them.

If not Pelfrey, who?

Logan Darnell has been
sharp so far at Triple A
Rochester.

Mike Pelfrey had another low-grade start Wednesday evening: Five innings, four runs allowed (three earned) with three walks and one strikeout. Even with a two-year contract, one senses that his chances are dwindling.

Imagine that the Twins decide to, as they say, go in a different direction. What are the options?

Perhaps the most obvious is to flip-flip him with Sam Deduno. Deduno has racked up an ERA of 1.80 in 14.2 innings out of the bullpen, and he was the most effective starter in the rotation for most of last season.

But ... I suspect the Twins have concluded that Deduno isn't a good fit for a starting rotation. He had shoulder surgery last year, he had Tommy John surgery before coming to the Twins, and he has had difficulty going deep into games. They're not looking for "five-and-fly."

If not Deduno, then reaching into the minors yields...

Trevor May came to
the Twins in the
Ben Revere deal.

Well, the word at the end of training camp had Scott Diamond and Kris Johnson, a pair of lefties, as the most likely early callups should rotation reinforcements be required.

Neither has overwhelmed in the early going in Rochester, however. Johnson — indirectly part of the return on last August's Justin Morneau trade — hasn't been bad: 1-2 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts, but with 14 strikeouts and no homers allowed in 16 innings. Diamond, a personal favorite, has been brutal: 1-2, 10.20 and with nine walks in 15 innings. He walked a lot of hitters in exhibition play too; this is a seriously bad sign.

Top pitching prospect Alex Meyer has been inconsistent, and while I think he's likely to get the call at some point, it's unlikely to come in May.

The two guys whose Rochester stats raise my eyebrows are Trevor May and Logan Darnell.

Darnell, a lefty who is on the 40-man roster, has a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings. More striking: 15 strikeouts as well.  May, a hard-thrower whose record indicates issues with control, has a worse ERA (2.93) than Darnell, but a sterling walk-to-strikeout ratio, three walks and 16 Ks in 15.1 innings.

If May — who issued the third most walks in the Double A Eastern League last year — has found the strike zone, he'll be in Minnesota real soon.

Setting up the 40

Max Kepler was added to the 40-man roster
in what may have been an unnecessary move.

Wednesday was the deadline for teams to move Rule 5 eligible players to the 40-man roster. The Twins put four players on the 40 -- LHP Logan Darnell, OF-1B Max Kepler, 2B-SS Jorge Polanco and 1B Kennys Vargas. They also outrighted RHP B.J. Hermsen off the roster, leaving them with an open slot.

Of the four, the only one close to earning major league time is Darnell, who split 2013 between Double A New Britain and Triple A Rochester. The other three spent last season in A ball -- Vargas in High A Fort Myers, Kepler and Polanco in low A Cedar Rapids.

I expected the Twins to protect Darnell and Polanco; either could easily have been taken in the Rule 5 draft in December. The other two are less likely to be targeted.

I expected, frankly, to be defending the Twins for not protecting Kepler. He is a very good prospect, but he's also extremely raw. I cannot imagine any team, even the talent-gathering Astros, taking him in the Rule 5 draft and carrying him on their major league roster for the full season. (Rule 5 draftees must be kept on the 25-man active roster or offered back to their original organization.)

There are, basically, three types of players who tend to be picked in Rule 5 and kept, and the third is pretty rare:

• Pitchers, especially lefties, who can be kept as the last man in the bullpen. (Darnell)
• Middle infielders with speed, who can be a second utility infielder and pinch runner. (Polanco)
• A catcher, who might be a backup on a team with a strong No.1 catcher or a No. 3 guy if he is a hitter who is weak behind the plate. 

It's very rare for an outfielder or first baseman to be taken in Rule 5, especially if they're being taken out of A ball. I don't deride either Kepler or Vargas as prospects, but I doubt the Twins needed to protect either this year. Obviously, the Twins see it differently.

---

The Detroit Tigers traded Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler. I don't feel like doing an exhaustive analysis of this deal right now, but I will say that:

• Both teams rearranged talent in useful ways;
• The Tigers got rid of a really painful contract for a less painful contract;
• The Tigers got the better end of the deal. My opinion.

The sixth starter

P.J. Walters, having been designated for assignment, is now in baseball limbo. He's not officially in the Twins organization, but if nobody claims him on waivers, he can be outrighted to Triple A.

At the moment, the Twins' rotation features, in alphabetical order, Kevin Correia, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. (It will be interesting to see how Ron Gardenhire lines them up coming out of the All-Star break; my guess is that Gibson will be at the end of the line.)

Considering that there's about half the season yet to play, the odds are that bunch will change. If Walters isn't a candidate to move back into the rotation, who is?

The possibilities include:

Pedro Hernandez

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Hernandez has made seven starts in the majors for the Twins (3-1, 5.54) and six for Rochester (2-2, 3.60). If he has a major league career ahead of him, it's probably as a relief pitcher. He'd be a safe place-holder, but that's all.

Cole De Vries was
5-5, 4.11 in his
time with the Twins
in 2012.

Cole De Vries

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Minnesota native would have opened 2013 in the major league rotation but ran into arm issues. He's made nine starts in Rochester and has gone 3-4, 8.16, with just 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Hard to see him being close to a callup.

Liam Hendriks

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Aussie opened with the big club and went down quickly. He dominated the International League last year but has fallen off this year (1-6, 5.05). His status isn't high.

Vance Worley 

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: He's 5-3, 3.81 since his demotion, which looks pretty good compared to his fellow 40-man roster mates. But it comes with just 30 strikeouts in 52 innings. I do expect him to return to the major league rotation this year, but that's more because of what the Twins have invested in him than because he's earned it.

Minor league veteran
Andrew Albers pitched
for Team Canada
in the WBC.

Andrew Albers

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Lefty from Canada, he was just named to the IL all-star team (8-3, 3.00 with 86 K in 99 innings). He's 27 and has spent more time in his career in relief than starting, but he's been a fixture in the Red Wings rotation and is having a fine season. I don't see him as a likely long-term rotation candidate.

Logan Darnell

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Another lefty, he has made one start for the Red Wings after a strong first half with Double A New Britain (6-6, 2.61). He's 24, and this is by far his best minor league performance. Probably behind Albers in terms of getting a chance.

Nick Blackburn:
Forgot he was still
around, didn't you?

Nick Blackburn

Status: Not on the 40-man roster; on rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League
Comment: He makes the list only because he's getting $5.5 million this year, which I believe makes him the Twins' highest-paid pitcher. He's gotta do something in the minors before the Twins will consider letting him try to earn some of his pay in the majors, and I don't think it's real likely. No future benefit from his return; the Twins won't exercise his $8 million option for 2014.

Alex Meyer

Status: Not on the 40; currently on disabled list
Comment: Was shut down with a shoulder issue last month; the Twins say there's no structural damage, but caution is being exercised anyway. Probably the best pitching prospect in the organization, he's 3-3, 3.69 in Double A New Britain with 73 strikeouts in 61 innings. Won't get a callup this year. (Came to Twins in the Denard Span trade.)

Trevor May came
to the Twins in the
Ben Revere trade.

Trevor May

Status: On the 40, pitching in New Britain
Comment: Some good signs from May as he repeats Double A (6-5, 3.98 with 93 K in 95 innings). The control is improving, although his season walk rate (3.9 BB/9) is still too high. He might be a September callup, since he's already on the 40, but he's not going to be yo-yo'd up and down. Expect patience with him.