The ruins of a rotation plan

When the Twins this week outrighted Nick Blackburn to Triple A, removing him from the 40-man roster, it meant that the all five members of the projected rotation were gone.

"The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry," but the question rises: Were the Twins rotation plans all that well made to begin with?

Scott Baker is coming
off ligament replacement
surgery and will be a
free agent this winter.

Scott Baker was the first of the five to fall; he didn't make it out of spring training. He'd had elbow problems last year, didn't have surgery, couldn't muster his usual velocity in camp, had surgery -- and once the surgeon opened the elbow, he found more damage than expected, and performed Tommy John surgery.

Fairly or not, this fit an apparent pattern of missed diagnoses and undertreatment. We'll see this again.

Next out was Jason Marquis, signed in the winter to a one-year deal as a free agent. He was awful with the Twins -- 8.47 ERA in seven starts with more walks (14) than strikeouts (12), and the Twins released him. He signed with San Diego, and he's had an ERA of 4.04 in 15 starts with a BB/K ratio of 28/78.

Marquis seemed a curious addition at the time of his signing, and I never really viewed him as anything more than a pricey holding piece. Nobody should have expected him to be as bad as he was before the Twins dumped him; even with his competent numbers with the Padres, his overall numbers aren't all that good.

Carl Pavano went on the disabled list after 11 starts; his ERA was an even 6.00, and his velocity was missing from the time camp opened. He was moved to the 60-day disabled list (and off the 40 man roster) in late July, and his hopes of pitching again ended this month with a new diagnosis of a bruise on his humerus bone.

Francisco Liriano, the Twins big tease.

Pavano had been a durable workhorse for the Twins since they acquired him in 2009 despite a lengthy injury history. I can't fault the Twins for expecting another season of 200-plus innings from him, but ... all pitchers are injury risks by definition, and 36-year-old pitchers with marginal stuff are probably more vulerable than most.

What stands out, again, is how long this lingered. Pavano voiced some frustration this month that it took three months to find the problem.

Francisco Liriano was, again, Mr. Inconsistent. He had an excellent spring training, stunk in the early part of the season, spent some time in the bullpen, returned to the rotation, pitched better, got traded in late July.

He's done well with the White Sox. Good for him. I have to believe the Twins aren't going to be free-agent suitors for him. Counting on him in the past hasn't yielded much but headaches.

And finally, Blackburn. Those of us who believe in what the leading indicator stats say about pitchers knew when the Twins signed him to a four-year contract that it was a bad bet. And so it has proven.

The failure of any one of these five cannot really be called a surprise. They all carried their individual risk, be it injury histories or performance track records. That all five collapsed so utterly -- the lowest Minnesota ERA in the group was Liriano's 5.31 -- is.

One could reasonably have anticipated going into training camp that one, two, even three of these guys weren't going to succeed. All five? That seems extreme even for a confirmed pessimist.

The rotation merry-go-round

P.J. Walters embraces pitching coach
Rick Anderson after his complete game
five-hitter Tuesday night -- easily the
best outing of his unsubstantial
major league career.

Jason Marquis, out. Cole DeVries, in.

Marquis' grip on his job was slipping all season, and his dreadful start Sunday — and the strain it put on the bullpen — made his departure inevitable. Marquis is probably going to land another chance somewhere, most likely in the National League, but I doubt there'll be enough demand for his services for the Twins to trade him. I would expect him to be released.

DeVries is lined up to start Thursday. If we count Scott Baker, who never took the mound in the regular season, DeVries will be the Twins 10th starter -- and we haven't reached Memorial Day yet.

I am mildly surprised that DeVries got the call. Liam Hendriks would have seemed more likely. But I assume that the Twins don't want to yo-yo the Aussie up and down. When he comes back, it's with the intent that he stays.

And while Marquis isn't returning to the Twins rotation, there are two pitchers now out of it who do figure to return to it — Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn. I would expect that when Blackburn is ready to come off the DL, it will be into the rotation spot DeVries is about to fill.

Of course, the Greg McMichael Rule is always in effect: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you. 


DeVries -- who was so far down the totem pole this spring that he wasn't even in major league camp -- may look like a temp worker right now, but so did Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters when they showed up, and their status becomes more entrenched with each quality start.

There remains reason to be skeptical of Diamond and Walters. Their raw stuff is not imposing, and their records of success are limited. But they've been more effective this season than Blackburn or Liriano, and if they keep getting outs, they'll keep getting the ball. And if one or both splutters, their roles can vanish quickly.

And the same will apply to DeVries. If he gets outs, he'll get the ball. If not, somebody else will. This is his chance.

The holes in the rotation

I missed out on almost all the Twins four-game winning streak last week while on my minor league journey. The games and my schedule were so aligned that even with the MLB At Bat app I was out of touch for all but a handful of innings.

So I missed the good stuff and was back in the loop for the latest -- and perhaps the last -- exhibition of pitching malpractice from Jason Marquis.

It may seem inarguable that Marquis should be out of his job, but the Twins haven't yet made it so. And it may be that putting Nick Blackburn on the disabled list has given Marquis a bit more rope.

The Twins have one (temporary) rotation hole to fill. Release Marquis, and they have a lasting hole to fill. What are their options?

1) Francisco Liriano. Ron Gardenhire has said that the Liriano-to-the-bullpen move was intended to be temporary, that he wants Liriano back in the rotation sooner rather than later.

Liriano got through some high-leverage outings during the winning streak. I don't know if he was so good that Gardenhire can feel confident that Liriano is ready to return to starting -- and I would think that they'd want to avoid starting him until they are sure they won't be pulling him out of the rotation again.

2) Liam Hendricks. The Aussie, demoted after four increasingly ineffective starts, has been impressive in three Triple A starts: 2-0, 1.93, 16 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He remains the best long-term starting prospect in the upper levels of the system.

3) Cole DeVries, a right-handed pitcher, Minnesota native, 27 years old, at Rochester. His 1-4, 4.20 record  isn't impressive; his walk/strikeout ratio is. Seth Stohs, who knows the Twins system better than anybody else not employed by the team, is agitating for DeVries to get his shot.

4) Brian Duensing. He's been effective as a relief pitcher, and Gardenhire was talking a while back about returning him to the rotation on the throughly correct logic that his bullpen work was of little use if the starters were taking the team out of games early.

Duensing lost his starting job last year because he couldn't get right-handers out. So far, he's gotten the job done against righties.

5) Drew Butera. OK, not really. But the catcher showed off mid-90s velocity in his inning of work mopping up Sunday's mess, and didn't appear to be working all that hard.

Sort of makes me wonder if he shouldn't have been made a pitcher from the get-go.

Dumping a failing player is only half the battle

Jason Marquis has
walked 11 and
struck out 10 this year.

The middle third of May is when the Twins in years past axed the likes of Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. It's when when they dumped the left side of their infield in '06.

The Twins made some significant changes in roster and roles already this week — Brian Dozier, Danny Valencia, Francisco Liriano. After the travesty that was Thursday's performance, one has to expect more changes.

Jason Marquis was billed when he signed as a guy who threw strikes — a description that did not match his statistical record, and has been flatly contradicted by his 2012 performance. As Aaron Gleeman noted on Twitter Thursday, Marquis has thrown strikes at the same rate this year as Francisco Liriano.

As wild as Liriano, but without Liriano's stuff — that's not a workable combo for a major league pitcher.

Liriano lost his starting job. Marquis ought to lose his.

The problem is: With whom do you replace him?

The same question hovers over the Valencia demotion. He wasn't getting the job done. But it's a sound principle to know what Plan B is when Plan A is jettisoned. If there is a clear plan for third base now, I don't see it.

Playing Trevor Plouffe there is ... well, it's an engraved invitation to low comedy like the pop-up "base hit" Thursday. Catcher Ryan Doumit never saw it. Marquis ran in and was in position to catch it, and then he backed off. It appeared, from Marquis' actions, that Plouffe called him off. But Plouffe wasn't anywhere near the ball when it dropped.

The handling of Plouffe this year has been baffling. He's supposed to be an outfielder, on the theory that reducing his defensive responsibilities will give his bat a chance to shine. But he's spent the first month-plus subbing in around the infield, and he's hitting under .160. The theory isn't getting a true test.


I'm dubious about Plouffe to begin with, but if the organization seriously believes there's a player there, they have to stop whipsawing him.

An ugly first look

Man, I hope we don't see a lot of this.

Fox Sports North televised Monday night's spring training tilt on their alternate channel. I don't know how many viewers found it, but I'm pretty sure not many stuck with it as long as I did.

Hey, it was baseball. Bad baseball, but still baseball.

A few comments, most -- but not all -- of which come with the "it's the fourth game of spring training, lets not read too much into it:" caveat: 

Jason Marquis was brutal. Utterly no command; he couldn't get out of the second inning. Walked three, threw three wild pitches and could easily have had a fourth. The Twins also committed two errors behind him.

Terry Ryan described Marquis as a strike thrower when the veteran signed, but that's simply not part of Marquis' record. I don't expect him to be great, and I don't expect him to be this out of control.

Deolis Guerra gave up five runs in his outing. Guerra is one of a handful of bullpen candidates I said a few days ago I was particularly interested in. Two of them, Guerra and Jason Bulger, have already been embarrassed by the Red Sox.

Bert Blyleven's explanation of Guerra's issues differed somewhat from what I've seen for years from Baseball America. BA has said that Guerra, who has a power pitcher's frame, shies away from using his fastball. (Supposedly his strong second half last season after his move to the bullpen corresponded with more use of his fastball.) Blyleven says Guerra's inconsistent with his "dominant" fast ball.

He didn't look like much of anything Monday.

Ryan Doumit played left field ... poorly. His "handling" of the leadoff double in the second inning was reminiscent of Delmon Young.

Joe Mauer had two hits. What a pretty swing. That doesn't change, spring training or no.

Twins sign Jason Marquis

Jason Marquis has a career record of 104-98.

It's a one-year, $3 million contract for a veteran back-of-the-rotation starter.

On the face of it, this signing doesn't thrill me. Jason Marquis is 33, he has a career ERA of 4.55, he has a low strikeout rate and, despite Terry Ryan's description of him as throwing the ball over the plate, his walk rate is mediocre. 

As a matter of basic principle, I would rather see the Twins open the fifth spot to competition from pitchers who haven't established themselves, not hand it to somebody who has established himself as a mediocrity.

The Twins will now pay Marquis some $300,000 more than Colorado will pay Kevin Slowey. I'd rather have Slowey. 

And yet, I see why the Twins wanted to add a veteran starter. They came into Thursday with a projected rotation of Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and an unknown. Nobody really knows what to expect from Liriano, Baker has yet to survive a full season in the rotation, and Blackburn has had elbow surgeries each of the past two winters. It's one thing to have one rotation opening for the likes of Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Matt Maloney, Terry Doyle and Liam Hendricks to fight over; it's another thing to have multiple holes to fill.

Marquis is the pitcher the Twins appear to think Blackburn is: a sinkerballer who eats up innings. (Marquis, like Blackburn, has not finished the past two seasons; he had elbow surgery after 2010, and suffered a broken fibula off a line drive last August). Marquis actually does get a lot of ground balls. I'm not sure the Twins infield is going to be much help to such a pitcher.

The importation of Marquis is yet another clear indication that Brian Duensing is ticketed for the bullpen. So was the non-tender of Jose Mijares. So was the claiming of Maloney, a left-handed starter who has done quite well in Triple A but never got a clean shot with Cincinnati.

The more I look at Maloney's minor league stats -- and at his walk and strikeout rates in the majors -- I more I like what I see. The problem for him is that the Twins are now paying five veteran starters at least $3 million. Somebody's going to have to get hurt for him to get a shot.