Notes, quotes and comment

Chris Parmelee joins the
battalion of former Twins
in the Baltimore organization,
including Delmon Young,
J.J. Hardy and Steve Pearce.

When Chris Parmelee opted for free agency last month rather than accept relegation to Rochester, I suggested Baltimore was a likely landing place. And indeed, the Orioles this week announced that the 2006 first round draft pick had signed a non-roster deal with them.

The O's have had no small amount of success with Twins discards in recent seasons, and they'll see if they can replicate that with Parmelee. He's had 901 major league plate appearances and hasn't hit well enough to keep a 40-man roster job, but he has hit in the minors and seldom got a steady diet of at-bats with the Twins. There's no guarantee he'll get a steady diet of at-bats with the Orioles either, but Steve Pearce (who the Twins released out of spring training in 2012) broke through for the Birds last year after a very Parmelee-like career.

---

I griped at some length Monday about Rob Manfred's endorsement of the silly notion of banning drastic defensive shifts, so I should at least applaud this comment from the new commissioner: He's not interested in selling ad space on uniforms.

Hear, hear.

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Hudson Boyd, a supplemental first round pick in 2012 who hasn't risen above Low A ball, will get to sit most of the first two months of the 2015 season after a second positive test for a "drug of abuse."

Wasted pick, apparently in more ways than one.

Parmelee goes, Fryer stays

Eric Fryer caught
28 games last year
for the Twins and
hit .213.

My read last week about what the two players removed from the Twins 40-man roster would do proved correct: Chris Parmelee opted for free agency, and Eric Fryer accepted his assignment to Triple A Rochester.

It's all about opportunity. Parmelee (and his agent) can't see much in Minnesota. There's Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas ahead of him at first base and DH, Torii Hunter and Oswaldo Arcia ahead of him in the outfield corners. Fryer, on the other hand, sees an unsettled situation behind Kurt Suzuki at catcher.

Presumably Fryer will join Mitch Garver, Tyler Grimes, Dan Rohlfing and Stuart Turner as non-roster catchers invited to spring training; unlike the other four, Fryer has a chance to make the major league roster. But that he was outrighted rather than Chris Herrmann or Josmil Pinto suggests that he should not be the favorite to emerge as the No. 2 backstop.

I will be curious about where Parmelee lands. I've suggested before a parallel between him and Garrett Jones, another left-handed hitting first baseman/corner outfielder who was blocked in Minnesota by Justin Morneau and has carved out a respectable career since being axed by the Twins. (Jones was traded this winter to the Yankees, and the idea seems to be that they will find platoon at-bats for him.)

Without studying the issue in any depth, Baltimore strikes me as a possibility. The Orioles have had a knack in recent years with castoff  first basemen/corner outfielders (Steve Pearce, Delmon Young, Chris Davis, even Lew Ford) and they lost two corner outfielders in free agency (Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis).

Obviously, nobody thinks today that Parmelee deserves a spot on a 40-man roster. He's going to have to earn one, and that means he's got to hit. I haven't given up on that possibility.

A stocking Stauffer

The Twins on Tuesday signed free agent swingman Tim Stauffer to a one-year, $2.2 million deal.

Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com says Stauffer's ticketed to fill the set-up role vacated by Jared Burton. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweeted that Stauffer is a fit for the long relief role played by Anthony Swarzak in recent years.

Those are significantly different roles in terms of importance. I don't particularly care for Stauffer in either.

One warning sign right off the bat: Stauffer, 32, has spent his career with the San Diego Padres, who play in an extremely pitcher friendly park in the non-DH league. His career ERA is a fairly pedestrian 3.87, but that splits into 3.07 at Petco Park and 4.64 on the road.

Environment matters. It matters a lot. I sometimes wonder if the Twins front office grasps the difference between the American and National Leagues when evaluating pitchers. The designated hitter rule means an extra half-run a game in ERA for an American League pitcher. But the Twins tend to sign National League pitchers -- Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Ricky Nolasco -- and be surprised when they don't match their NL numbers.

That argues against putting Stauffer in a high-leverage job, such as eighth-inning relief.

Long relief is a low-leverage job, and if that's Stauffer's role and he tanks, it doesn't cost the Twins anything but money -- except for the opportunity cost. I would rather see the Twins use the role to ease a young pitcher with upside into the majors with minimum pressure than spend veteran money on a low-ceiling arm to little purpose.

If there's no room in the rotation for Trevor May or Alex Meyer this spring, better that they pitch long relief than in Rochester. They've graduated Triple A.

---

Also on Tuesday: Chris Parmelee and Eric Fryer cleared waivers. Parmelee had been designated for assignment for the Ervin Santana signing; Fryer's removal from the 40-man roster created the opening for Stauffer.

Both can opt for free agency rather than accept their assignment to the Rochester roster. I would expect Parmelee to go elsewhere. Fryer might still believe the Twins to be his best opportunity to play in the majors. I don't have a sense of what Paul Molitor will emphasize from the backup catcher. Bat? Josmil Pinto. Defense? Fryer. Flexibility, both as a limited platoon partner and at other positions? Chris Herrmann. With Ron Gardenhire, defense was generally the point of emphasis, which was how Fryer spent much of 2014 in the majors.

Goodbye, Parmelee

Chris Parmelee was the
Twins' first-round pick
in 2006 .

The Twins waived Chris Parmelee on Saturday to open a spot on the 40-man roster for free agent signee Ervin Santana.

While it wasn't the roster-clearing move I wanted (see Saturday's post), it's understandable. As with Chris Colabello, there isn't an obvious role for Parmelee on the Twins as currently constructed. First base is jammed with Joe Mauer and Kennys Vargas; the corner outfield jobs are occupied by Oswaldo Arcia and Torii Hunter; and Parmelee hasn't the skill set to handle more rigorous defensive positions.

Parmelee cleared waivers a year ago and the Twins kept him in the organization as a minor leaguer; this time, if he clears waivers, he can declare free agency. I would expect him to do so. He needs a change of scenery, and an organization that has a use for him.

He has been in roughly the same boat Garrett Jones was with the Twins. Jones was blocked at first base by Justin Morneau and in the outfield corners by the likes of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. Jones has squeezed out six seasons in the majors since leaving the Twins, five of them as a low-grade regular.

I wouldn't rule out that kind of future for Parmelee. He had one brief clear shot at a regular job with the Twins (first half of 2013), and he didn't do anything with it.

And that's the key. Jones clubbed 21 homers in half a season's playing time in his first year with Pittsburgh, and he parlayed that into a multi-season career I didn't see coming. Wherever he winds up, Parmelee needs to hit. In 901 plate appearances (spread over four seasons) with the Twins, he hit .249/.317/.392. That would work for a shortstop or a catcher, but it's not good enough for a first baseman.

---

The Twins late last week signed right-hander Brayan Villareal to a minor-league contract. He fits what has become the new normal for the Twins in acquirring bullpen arms: He throws hard.

Villareal has 75 major league innings, all with Detroit (he made one appearance with the Red Sox in 2013, walked a guy on four pitches, was pulled and never pitched again; he got a World Series ring for his efforts). He has 86 strikeouts (and 47 walks).

If he can throw strikes, he can help. But that's a sizable if.

A night at Target Field

Jordan Schafer turned the wrong way
on this first-inning double over his head
Monday night. 

Monday night's game provided a strong reminder of one of my favorite precepts about baseball: The easiest way to improve the pitching is to improve the outfield defense.

Anthony Swarzak, making a spot start, wasn't really as bad as his line -- 11 hits in 4.1 innings -- indicates. My scoresheet was dotted with notations of outfield plays unmade and resulting runs .

Jordan Schafer, playing centerfield, got turned around on a ball hit by Victor Martinez in the first inning. If Schafer makes the play the Tigers get nothing; in reality, V-Mart's double scored one run and set up his own on J.D. Martinez' subsequent hit.

The latter Martinez opened the three-run fourth inning with a double that Oswaldo Arcia misjudged in right field. That could, should, have been caught.

I didn't mark any poor plays by left fielder Chris Parmelee, but Dan Gladden suggested on the postgame show that there was a play (or more) that the first-base transplant should have made. Presumably Gladden was talking about Bryan Holaday's RBI double in the fourth and/or Victor Martinez' double in the fifth.

I will give Parmelee credit for a good throw to the plate to cut down V-Mart to end that fifth inning. Martinez isn't fast by any means, but Parmelee had to make an accurate throw to get him on Holaday's fly ball, and he made the play.

Other notes from what I expect will be my final in-person game of 2014:

* Danny Santana started at shortstop, as he did in my previous trip to Target Field 10 days earlier. On Sept. 5 he missed on what I thought was a double play opportunity; on Sept. 15 he had a similar chance (second inning off the bat of Ian Kinsler) and started the twin killing. He also had a well-turned pivot on a flashy DP started by Brian Dozier's diving play and flip with glove hand; that flip was a little behind Santana, but he handled the exchange fluidly.

I've been, and remain, skeptical of Santana's ability to handle shortstop, but those were nicely done plays.

* Swarzak, as implied by the previous paragraph, was helped by his infielders, perhaps as much as he was hurt by his outfielders. Give him credit for this: He threw strikes -- 14 first-pitch strikes to his 23 hitters faced, 47 strikes in 70 pitches, just one walk and that intentional.

* A.J. Achter, on the other hand, got through his 2.1 innings without being charged with a run, but threw almost as many balls (17) as strikes (19). He walked home one of Swarzak's inherited runners, a run set up by the intentional walk to J.D. Martinez.. Achter and Ryan Pressly kept the Tigers off the board in the sixth-through-eighth innings, but it wasn't pretty, at least on Achter's part.

* Miguel Cabrera is a beast. The man's leg is clearly killing him, but he had three hits for seven total bases and three runs scored. The way he stared out at the outfield after his first-inning double off the limestone overhang suggested that he couldn't believe that didn't get out of the park.

Five thoughts from a three-shortstop win

Chris Parmelee brings his walk-off homer home.

My wife and I went to Target Field to see Tuesday's game in person. A few observations:

* This is said to be Chris Parmelee's eighth time with the Twins, testimony to how the organization has yo-yoed the former first-round pick between the minors and the big club since 2011. Parmelee 8.0 is supposed to be a more aggressive player.

We'll see how well that plays as time passes; 17 plate appearances don't suffice for judgment. But I do take note that two of his three hits Tuesday came off lefty relievers (a single off Craig Breslow and the game-winning home run off Andrew Miller). Parmelee hasn't shown a huge dropoff against lefties in his 648 career plate appearances — he hasn't stuck because he hasn't hit period, not because he hasn't hit southpaws — but considering that his ultimate competition for playing time are fellow lefties Jason Kubel and Oswaldo Arcia, it helps to hit the lefties.

* Three shortstops in the starting lineup: Eduardo Escobar at shortstop, Danny Santana in center field, Eduardo Nunez as the designated hitter. All three did something to help.

Realistically, of course, Nunez should be considered a shortstop in the same vein as Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe came up as a shortstop and demonstrated that he can't hack the position defensively. Nunez did the same with the Yankees.

Still, the use of a purported shortstop as the DH is rather jarring. One is a glove-first position, and defensive skill is completely useless at the other. Almost 30 years ago Bill James ridiculed the Twins for having Roy Smalley split the 1986 season between short and designated hitter: "This is a new role on a major league roster."

Nunez hit a homer off Jake Peavy in the five-run second inning, so it worked. 

* Santana drew two walks — off his minor-league record, it's tough to walk him even once — scored a run and didn't look nearly as lost in center field as fellow shortstop Escobar did a few games ago. Dan Gladden, on the post game radio show, praised Santana for his ability to take his eye off a fly ball, run to the spot and find the ball again.

Santana also got picked off first after one of those walks, and it mattered — he led off the eighth inning with the base on balls and didn't give Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer a chance to make something of the early baserunner.

The Twins can rave about Santana's talent, but he's mistake prone.

* Santana's role is a curious matter right now. The Twins obviously have a hole in center field. Aaron Hicks, for the second straight year, won the job with an impressive spring training and immedately failed to hit once the regular season began. Sam Fuld is 32 and is nobody's answer to center field.

Ron Gardenhire has started Escobar and Santana in center out of desperation. He needs a center fielder now, and the ultimate answer (Byron Buxton) isn't available. But if Santana is the shortstop of the future, playing him in center on a regular basis isn't a good long-term move.

*Escobar's plays were routine. Nothing flashy. But several required long throws after grounders to his backhand side, and he's certainly got sufficient arm for the position. At the plate, Escobar had a hit and a run scored.


I believe that the 2014 Twins are better off with Escobar as the shortstop. But if the Twins believe Santana is the shortstop for the Sano-Buxton era, and if Santana is on the major league roster, Santana should be the shortstop.

On the other hand, maybe they see Santana as a Ben Zobrist-type of multi-position guy in the long run. That's not as crucial as a quality regular shortstop, but Santana may simply be too mistake prone for that.

* It was simply irritating to see Matt Guerrier get the ball with the lead on the line in the seventh inning.

This wasn't the plan. Michael Tonkin started the seventh with two quick outs, then couldn't get the third out. Brian Duensing came in and thought he struck out David Ortiz, but the ump didn't agree, and Ortiz ultimately singled. Then Duensing clearly pitched around Mike Napoli to set up a matchup with Grady Sizemore, only to see Jonny Gomes pinch hit.

At this point, Gardenhire had to bring in a righty. Normally I think it would have been Casey Fien, but I think Gardy wanted to avoid Fien after he got hit in the pitching biceps by a line drive on Sunday. Tonkin had already been used, and I suppose Jared Burton was being saved for the eighth.

So enter Guerrier. It was a telling matchup in this sense: Gomes is a platoon player (.276/.377/.501 vs. lefties in his career, .225/.310/.421 vs. righties). A right-handed short reliever has to be able to put Gomes away. And Guerrier couldn't. Gomes just kept fouling pitches off until he drew the walk to tie the game.

One at-bat, but it serves to confirm my belief that Guerrier at age 35 does not belong in the major leagues.

Shuffling the roster, part duh

Chris Parmelee says
he'll be more aggressive
about swinging at strikes
this time around.

It was Aaron Hicks and Chris Parmelee brought up Friday, not Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, as I predicted. Apparently Arcia's wrist is still troublesome.

DFA'd to make room on the 40 for Parmelee: Kenny Wilson, who was himself scooped up on waivers about two weeks ago. Wilson hit .195 in 11 games with New Britain. Presumably he'll pass through waivers — somebody would have to deem him worthy of a 40-man roster spot to claim him, and I doubt he is — and the Twins can simply outright the former second-round pick to New Britain.

It's a weird sequence of roster moves: At the end of spring training, the Twins waived Parmelee and Alex Presley (losing Presley on waivers); Jason Bartlett, Jason Kubel and Chris Colabello made the team instead. The Twins ultimately claimed Sam Fuld to serve the role that Presley would have; Wilson inherited the 40-man roster spot that Bartlett vacated when he retired.

And now Parmelee inherits Wilson's 40-man spot.

The next question is how much playing time will Parmelee get? My guess is that when Joe Mauer returns to the lineup, Colabello will get most of his time at DH and Parmelee and Kubel will be the primary corner outfielders. The guy who'll get squeezed out of at-bats will be Josmil Pinto.

Then when Arcia is back ... that will open the debate again.

Washed up on the bench

This catch (on March 18) near the
center field fence apparently convinced
Ron Gardenhire that career shortstop
Jason Bartlett can handle center field.

The Twins made three serious cuts Thursday. There's still one more to come — extra catcher Dan Rohlfing remains in camp — and the very real possibility that they'll pick up somebody on waivers, but they've essentially pared down to the Opening Day roster.

And what an odd bench this figures to be.

The Twins lost outfielder Alex Presley on waivers to the Houston Astros. They also saw first baseman-outfielder Chris Parmelee and left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond clear waivers.

The resulting bench: catcher Josmil Pinto; first baseman Chris Colabello; infielder Eduardo Escobar; and infielder Jason Bartlett.

There is no true fourth outfielder there. There are two shortstops, in Escobar and Bartlett, who are supposed to be "super utility men," although there's no real reason to believe either can hit enough to play. There are two right-handed bats of limited defensive value in Pinto and Colabello.

Is there a purpose to having a bench player who fits the traditional fourth outfielder role? Considering the extreme defensive limitations of the trio who figure to get the bulk of the playing time in the outfield corners (Josh Willingham, Oswaldo Arcia and Jason Kubel), having somebody who can pinch run and then track down a fly ball late in games might be handy.

The idea seems to be that Bartlett and Escobar can handle those chores. I know that Bartlett made a catch in center (photo above) earlier this month that drew a lot of comment at the time, with manager Ron Gardenhire sounding impressed, but I'm less than completely sold.

What I call The Cuddyer Principle holds that any right-handed major leaguer can at least pass at any non-battery position for a while without it being painfully obvious that he doesn't belong there. Gardenhire, I think, is proposing The Bartlett Corollary to The Cuddyer Principle: If you can play shortstop in the majors, you can play any position well. We'll see if Gardy actually uses one of those extra shortstops as a defensive sub in left or right.

Another thing to watch for is if Colabello has a role other than pinch-hitting. Gardenhire is platoon-adverse, but Kubel has never really hit left-handed pitching and is hardly likely to start now. Colabello makes the most sense on the roster as a DH against lefties.

The Twins will face one of the league's tougher lefties, Chris Sale, in the opener Monday in Chicago. Colabello should be in the lineup — and Kubel on the bench — against Sale. But that's exactly the kind of matchup move Gardenhire has habitually avoided.

Benches are, of course, made up of flawed players. Nobody's so deep that a Willie Mays winds up as the fourth outfielder or Derek Jeter as a utility infielder. I didn't expect the Twins to cut Presley or Parmelee, much less both, but in the abstract, I don't quarrel with either move; neither player figures to be a great loss.

The real issue is that the regular lineup figures to be so flawed, that there's plenty of room for aggressive bench use. Is this a bench Gardenhire will use? Given Gardenhire's established preferences, I'm not sure there IS a bench he'll use.

Two puzzling call-ups

Shairon Martis is 26
now, but he pitched
in the majors for
Washington at ages
21 and 22.

The Rochester Red Wings were eliminated Sunday in the International League playoffs, which (a) concluded the season for the Twins minor league teams and (b) freed up the Twins to make the rest of their September call-ups.

Seven players got the call for the season's final three weeks or so: Pitchers Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Michael Tonkin and Shairon Martis; infielders Eduardo Escobar and Chris Parmelee; and catcher Eric Fryer.

Most of these were pretty obvious. Diamond, demoted for his ineffectiveness, went 4-0, 2.41 for Rochester and won his playoff start. De Vries, his season wrecked by a spring training injury, got it going late. Escobar, who had no previous history of hitting well, went .307/.380/.500 for the Red Wings; it wasn't a lot of at-bats (188 plate appearances), but that's a mighty attractive slash line for a middle infielder. Tonkin has a very real chance to be a bullpen factor next season.

And some are a bit surprising. Parmelee, for example: a .231/.318/.370 line for a first baseman-right fielder doesn't scream for his recall. I wonder how much playing time he's going to get; I wonder if this isn't his last chance to impress somebody.

Martis had a 4.26 ERA in 80 innings, mostly in middle relief; I doubt there's much there.

Eric Fryer gives
the Twins four
active catchers
going on five.

And Fryer ... he hit an unimpressive .215/.339/.365. The Twins already had three active catchers in Ryan Doumit, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto — and Joe Mauer supposedly making progress in his recovery from his concussion. When Mauer returns, this gives the Twins five catchers. Even granting that several of those five can do other things than catch, that's a lot. I understand that Gene Glynn, the Rochester manager, really likes Fryer, but on the surface, there's simply no way Fryer rates with the other four.

My guess is that the Twins know they won't give either Martis or Fryer spots on their 40-man roster this winter, but they really want to retain the two as minor league free agents. (The Twins created the 40-man berths for them by putting Wilkin Ramirez and Sam Deduno on the 60-day disabled list; the other five were already on the 40.) This September call-up is, in effect, a bonus for them for being good organization guys in Triple A. A few more weeks of service time, some major league pay, a gesture of appreciation.

Who's on first next year?

Justin Morneau looks at umpire C.B. Bucknor
after being called out on strikes.

The Monday print column expanded a bit on a post from last week about Joe Mauer and the possibility that his current concussion will hasten a position change for the Twins star.

But let's say Mauer remains the Twins primary catcher. What are the first base options for 2014?

Justin Morneau will be a free agent this winter. For all the trade speculation that surrounded the former MVP this summer, there really appears to have been limited interest in him elsewhere.

He's no longer a franchise centerpiece and doesn't belong in the middle of the order anymore, but ... he's probably more valuable to the Twins than he is to anybody else, he's put down roots in Minnesota, and the rise of the likes of Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton means the Twins may, as early as the middle of 2014, be in a position to move Morneau to a place in the bottom half of the lineup.

Current take: I'd say it's at least 50-50 that Morneau is the Twins first baseman next year.

Chris Parmelee, long the heir apparent at first base, was the regular right fielder early on but didn't hit. He was optioned out at the All-Star break, a move that surprised me more than it probably should have, and ... he hasn't hit in Rochester either (.225/.331/.355). It's the dismal slugging percentage that is most alarming. I really expected him to grab Triple A by the throat, as he did in 2012. That didn't happen.

Current take: I think Parmelee is out of options after this season. He may not get a September call-up. He certainly can't be prominent in the front office's plans for 2014.

Chris Colabello has bounced up and down between Minnesota and Rochester in the second half. The minor league veteran has dominated the International League but has been highly strikeout-prone in limited major-league at-bats.

Current take: I have difficulty imagining the Twins committing this offseason to Colabello as a regular. He has a better shot than Parmelee, but his best chance is as an injury replacement.

Jose Abreu is an intriguing notion, and probably the free agent first baseman with the most potential to pay off. He's a Cuban defector, 26, who has been a masher in the top league on the island. He's establishing residency in Haiti and his immigration status is far from settled, but the speculation is that someone will offer him a six-year, $60 million deal to play in the United States when he's cleared.

Current take: The Twins don't have a track record of pursuing big-bucks free agents, and they don't appear often in the "informed speculation" around Abreu. That kind of talk has focused on the likes of Texas, Boston and the Mets. But few thought Oakland would land Yoenis Cepedes, and few connected Cincinnati with Aroldis Chapman; the big-market teams haven't often splurged on the Cubans. The Twins have the budget room to make a $10 million-a-year commitment (especially with Morneau coming off the books); it's far from certain they have the gambler's mentality the move would take.

Conclusion

All of this hinges on Mauer. If he and the Twins want to keep him as a primary catcher, first base is there to be filled. If it's deemed time to move him, first base is his most likely destination, and everybody else is out of luck.

Shaking up the roster

Oswaldo Arcia tries (and fails) to break his bat
after yet another strikeout.

The Twins go into the All-Star break with a two-game winning streak. They will come out of the break on Friday with a drastically different outfield.

The Twins optioned out three players after Sunday's win: outfielder Oswaldo Arcia, infielder Eduardo Escobar and first baseman/right fielder Chris Parmelee. Catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann and infielder Doug Bernier were immediately named as call-ups; the third addition was not named, but is expected to be first baseman Chris Colabello, who is slated to play in the Triple A all-star game Wednesday.

It has been said here since early in the offseason that 2013 doesn't matter. All decisions should be made with the future as the priority. A good case can be made for two of the demotions on that basis, not so much the third.

Let's take the least important one first. Bernier, who has all of four major league at-bats, is a 33-year-old minor league veteran who is having, literally, his first good hitting season that didn't come in a notoriously good hitting environment. The only point to swapping out Escobar for him is giving the younger (24) Escobar a chance to play; he's had all of 13 at-bats this month.

There is, to be blunt, no question worth asking about the future of the Twins to which Bernier is a useful answer. Escobar might be a utility infielder of the Al Newman/Nick Punto ilk down the road; right now, Ron Gardenhire isn't playing him, so he's not developing. Bernier can sit on the bench as well as Escobar can.

The Arcia demotion brought immediate complaints on my Twitter feed, largely along the lines of: yeah, he's been awful for the past week, but so was Aaron Hicks for six weeks and they didn't send him down.

True, but: Hicks, during his horrendous April, was doing other things to help the team. He drew a few walks; he played better defense in center field than anybody else available to them; he ran the bases well in those few times he was on base. Arcia in a slump does nothing to help; this is the outfielder, remember, who fielded a foul fly with his face last week.

Chris Parmelee's natural position is first base,
but he's played just 66 innings there this season.

According to Baseball Info Systems's defensive metrics, Arcia is -17 in the plus-minus rating and -10 in runs saved. In contrast, Josh Willingham, widely recognized as a poor defensive outfielder, is -9 and -4 — in about 150 more innings.

Arcia on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday came to the plate 14 times and struck out 11 times. Throughout that stretch of futility, Gardenhire spoke publicly about how Arcia was trying to "hit an eight-run homer;" certainly the youngster was talked to about it; and he kept overswinging.

Arcia is a big part of the Twins' future. But he needs to do a better job of adjusting, and it may well be that he needs a reality check.

For me, the demotion of Parmelee is the bigger disappointment. Certainly his offense hasn't been what one desires from a first baseman-right fielder, and he hasn't gotten better (one hit and 12 strikeouts in his past 22 at-bats). Considering how he dominated the International League last year, I don't know what he's going to learn from this demotion.

I certainly would rather see Parmelee get at-bats in the majors than Clete Thomas. Parmelee may not turn out to be a regular on a contender; we know Thomas isn't.

Presumably the Twins intend to bring both Arcia and Parmelee back soon. Until then, the corner outfield spots will likely be manned by some combination of Ryan Doumit, Thomas and Herrmann. I don't think this is an upgrade.

The outfield without Willingham

Josh Willingham went on the disabled list Tuesday with a torn meniscus and a bone bruise in his knee. The problem really began, methinks, when he tried to steal second (on his own) in April and executed an awkward slide.

A bum knee goes a long way toward explaining his statistical downturn this season. Apparently he had hopes of returning soon after the 15 days, but after Tuesday's game it was announced that he will have the knee scoped..

It's now unlikely that there will be an trade market for Willingham this month. Not that one should have expected much of one anyway. He's a 34-year-old low-average slugger with limited defensive value (if any); I don't think he'd have fetched a prime pitching prospect even if he were duplicating last season's numbers.

Aaron Hicks was reinstated from the disabled list to fill Willingham's roster spot. Terry Ryan had been saying that Hicks had to produce on his rehab assignment to return to the majors, and Hicks hadn't. But here he is again anyway.

Hicks started Tuesday's game (and had a couple of hits), with Clete Thomas taking a seat. It bears watching how Ron Gardenhire handles this situation. Thomas has been more productive than Hicks, but Hicks is a more significant piece of the puzzle and needs to play. If Gardy would rather play Thomas, Hicks should be returned to the minors.

One silver lining to Willingham's injury is that it should make more playing time available for Chris Parmelee. Oswaldo Arcia has (as he should) one corner outfield job; like Hicks, there is no point to having Arcia in the majors if he's going to sit. Unlike Hicks, Arcia is producing. Center field belongs to Hicks and Thomas, of course. Parmelee came into Tuesday's game with unimpressive numbers on the season (.234/.318/.400) but he'd hit three homers in his last eight games -- eight games with a slash line of .320/.433/.800. (And then he went hitless Tuesday -- not just hitless, but with three strikeouts in his four at-bats.)

It's been a odd, frustrating season for Parmelee. He's been better defensively in right than anticipated, and he's pretty consistently going deep into at-bats. Both are pluses. But at least until the past week or so, he's come up empty too often in those at-bats. I believe that process leads to results, and based on that theory, I still have hopes for Parmelee. I don't want to see the Twins give up on him too soon.

Judging the defense

When Ryan Doumit
is in the outfield,
it's not for his
defensive skills.

In the final innings of Monday night's overly-long extra inning game in Boston, the Twins outfield had Ryan Doumit in left, Wilkin Ramirez in center and Chris Parmelee in right. This is not the Jamaican relay team when it comes to speed, and there were observers who wondered if Stephen Drew's game-winning double could have been caught by a genuine left fielder.

Ron Gardenhire, hewing to the philosophy that one doesn't blame the player when the manager puts him in a position outside his skill set, avoided criticizing Doumit: I had my backup catcher out there.

It occurred to me that Parmelee -- whose best position is probably first base -- might be the most accomplished outfielder of that trio. So this morning I dug into the plus/minus and runs saved defensive metrics devised and compiled by Baseball Info Systems.

Please note: BIS itself says the metrics are best applied over years, not weeks. This is early May. So the numbers don't necessarily define individual skills.

A few highlights:

Parmelee is a bit below average in right, but not so much that he can be said to be hurting the team defensively. As of Wednesday morning he was listed at -4 in plus/minus but zero in runs saved. He's been better than I expected, but I wasn't expecting Dwight Evans from him either.

The best defensive player on the team has been Brian Dozier, +6 in plus/minus and 4 in runs saved at second base. Next best: shortstop Pedro Florimon, +4 and 2. The worst: Ramirez is a combined -6, -4 in just 48 innings around the outfield.

Doumit has just three innings in left field, all on Monday; he grades out at -2, -1 in left. So, yeah, it appears that the BIS grading system figures Drew's ball was catchable.

Matching up with Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee and Cleveland catcher Van Gomes watch
Parmelee's seventh-inning homer head for the right field seats.

Seventh inning Friday night. Cleveland's Justin Masterson has a 5-3 lead and gets the first two Twins hitters out. But then Justin Morneau singles, goes to second on a passed ball, and scores on a Ryan Doumit single.

With the left-handed Chris Parmelee due up, Cleveland manager Terry Francona goes to his bullpen, but not for a LOOGY. He calls on a righty, Cody Allen.

And Parmelee lofts a fly ball that barely sneaks over the right-field wall. Home run, Twins lead 6-5.

The Twins didn't hold that lead, but I'm still intrigued by Francona's choice of relief pitcher. Why did he defy the platoon approach?

Parmelee's career splits might be one factor. He's been a better hitter against left-handed pitchers (.782 on base plus slugging) than against righties (.738) in his brief major league career. But that's just 380 career plate appearances, which is not enough to declare him the rare exception to the platoon rule.

Allen's platoon splits are even more limited — he has just 42.2 career innings — but they carry a hint of "backwards" platoon splits also. Righties have hit .273 off him; lefties .237. Righties have an OBP of .356; lefties, .318.

But ... all four home runs he's allowed have been to left-handed hitters. Right-handers slug .295 off Allen so far, lefties .461.

Francona knows a lot more about Allen than I do, and it's quite likely that Allen has a particular pitch that Francona believes is effective against left-handed hitters. It's also possible that he's just inconsistent enough with that pitch that he's vulnerable to the long ball with it.

Picking a pitcher on that basis makes more sense to me than picking him off the limited statistical evidence available on Parmelee and Allen.

Using Oswaldo Arcia

Oswaldo Arcia has hit two three-run homers since his
call up; the rest of the roster has zero for the season.

When Darin Mastroianni went on the disabled list, Oswaldo Arcia was called up. This is not a simple swapout; Mastroianni is a fourth outfielder, and Arcia is something more.

There are organizations for whom Arcia would be the top prospect, or at least the top position player prospect. In the Twins system — regarded by Baseball America as the game's richest in position players — the 21-year-old (turns 22 on May 8) clearly ranks below the likes of Miguel Sano and Bryon Buxton. But Arcia's a talented hitter who figures to be a middle-of-the-order thumper on the next good Twins team.

So Terry Ryan and Co. didn't bring him to Minnesota to sit. Wherever he is, he's gonna play. And he has — on Friday he bopped his second home run of the week.

Fitting him into the current lineup means sitting somebody in the corner outfield-first base-catcher-designated hitter nexus. Arcia gives them six players for five lineup slots. And just as we know the Twins don't want Arcia rusting on the bench, we know Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham aren't sitting to make room either. (Arcia did pick up a couple of starts in Willingham's stead when Willingham had an illness, but that was about health matters, not about making room for Arcia.)

That leaves Chris Parmelee and Ryan Doumit, and so far it's been Doumit losing time to Arcia.

I'm fine with that. My core thought about the 2013 Twins is that all decisions ought to be made with an eye to the future, and one of the things that has to be accomplished is giving Parmelee enough playing time to decide what he is. Is he a good enough hitter to be a regular on a good team, or is he a platoon guy/second division regular?

Either seems possible. Parmelee's 25; the Twins owe it to themselves to find out what they have in the former first-round pick. Doumit's 32 and has a well-established track record. (Neither is hitting much so far.)

How long the Twins will try to juggle six players for five positions is unknown. I don't expect this arrangement to last all season. Maybe somebody gets traded, maybe somebody gets hurt, maybe Arcia goes back to Triple A. One way or another, something will change.

Benchmarks for 2013: Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee had a big September
in his 2011 callup but hit just .229
in 210 plate appearances last season
with the Twins

When I started this occasional series early this month, I listed six topics -- six areas of need for the Twins that one might reasonably use to gauge the effectiveness of Ron Gardenhire as manager in 2013.

Today I'm adding one that should have come to mind with the original post: Establishing Chris Parmelee.

Parmelee, Minnesota's first-round draft pick in 2006, will hit training camp next month as the presumptive starting right fielder. His best position is probably first base, but he's played considerable outfield as he toured the Twins minor league system.

He'll turn 25 during training camp, and it's time to find out what he can do with sustained playing time.

Right field is almost certainly not his long-term position. Oswaldo Arcia, a higher-end outfield prospect, is rocketing up the ladder; he is quite likely to lay claim to an outfield corner job by 2014. Veteran first baseman (and franchise icon) Justin Morneau is entering the last year of his contract; Parmelee could be shifted to first if the organization decides to cut ties with the 2006 MVP.

But before making any such decisions, the Twins need to determine what they have in Parmelee.

A year ago, the outside prospects gurus figured Parmelee was at best a platoon player or a "second-division" regular. But that was before he ripped Triple A at a .338/.457/.645 pace in 2012. His numbers in repeated call-ups weren't nearly so impressive, but they came with sporadic playing time.

That shouldn't be an issue in 2013. With two of last year's regular outfielders traded away, there should be plenty of at-bats available for Parmelee. And the Twins have reason to invest those at-bats in him, even if the outfield defense, with Josh Willingham in left and Parmelee in right, figures to be severely weakened as a result.

The Twins need to give Parmelee a chance to hit if they are to make the right choice on Morneau's future.

More league prospects lists

Eddie Rosario: Can he stick at second?

Last week, as Baseball America began to roll out online its league-by-league top prospects lists, I posted about the Twins minor leaguers on two of those lists.

Today BA's website features its Top 20 for the Midwest League. Miguel Sano is No. 2, and Eddie Rosario is No. 12. Those two are the only Twins on the list.

Jim Callis wrote the MWL reports, and he's the same BA staffer who suggested in a recent online chat that Rosario did not take well enough to second base to stick there. So it should be no surprise that that evaluation is aired in the (subscriber-only) scouting report on Rosario:

While he worked diligently on his defense, scouts don't think his hands, range or throwing are good enough for second base. His average speed may not bode well for a long-term fit in center field either.

We'll learn soon enough, I suppose, if the Twins organization agrees with that assessment.

BA/Callis also suggest that Sano may become an outfielder.

Meanwhile ... the print edition arrived today, and it includes the Top 20 for all the minor leagues, and the scouting reports for the Top 10s.

Other Twins who make lists:

• 1B/OF Chris Parmelee is No. 5 in the International League (Triple A)
• OF Oswaldo Arcia is No. 6 in the Eastern League (Double A) and No. 7 in the Florida State League (High A)
• OF Aaron Hicks is No. 8 in the Eastern League

And, as noted in the previous posts, OF Byron Buxton was No.1 in both the Appy League and the Gulf Coast League, and OF Max Kepler was No. 7 in the Appy League.

Seven unique players, two of them (Buxton and Arcia) on two lists. No pitchers, and its possible (but I think unlikely) that all seven will wind up as outfielders. The lack of sure-thing infielders is discouraging.

One note on the Parmelee ranking: The IL is described as unusually weak in true prospects:

The talent craters quickly after the trio of Matt Harvey, Sterling Marte and Chris Archer at the top. For a Triple-A league, there's a glaring lack of future starting major league position players. ... Most of the hitters on this list profile as complementary players or even reserves.

The actual report on Parmelee is quite positive, however.

Reconsidering the pitching market

Earlier this month I offered this notion: that a trade of Chris Parmelee for James Shields was a possibility.

Now I have my doubts about that's a realistic exchange.

Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk on Tuesday, in the context of critiquing some ESPN Insiders takes on the pending free agent crop, listed 20 teams he thought would be in the market for a $10-million-a-year starting pitcher. His list does not include the Twins.

Call it a conservative list on his part. I think the Twins payroll could handle such a pitcher -- they're shedding something in the vicinity of $18 million in starting pitcher salary at the end of the season (Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, most of Jason Marquis, a sizable share of Francisco Liriano). They certainly have the need for such a starter.

Even if you include the Twins on the list of teams looking to add a pricey pitcher, Pouliot's point remains: Lots of potential buyers with darn few pitchers to actually spend the money on. The free agent crop has Zach Greinke, with Edwin Jackson as the next best, in Pouliot's estimation.

In my estimation, Shields is a far better, and (at least in terms of salary) cheaper, pitcher than Jackson. Which means Tampa Bay is likely to have a multitude of suitors if Shields is to be auctioned off. And Parmelee may not be sufficient to land him.

It may be a difficult offseason in which to acquire established pitching talent.

One idea for a first base trade

Chris Parmelee had a big series this weekend in Kansas City,
with two home runs.

Following up on my Monday print column on the Twins' looming offseason decision about first base ...

Here's the core for a potential trade: Chris Parmelee to Tampa Bay for James Shields.

Allow me to interject here that this is solely me thinking aloud. This is not based on any sort of inside information, or even on a trade rumor. It's not necessarily something either team is thinking about -- but as I see it, it's something both teams ought to be considering.

James Shields is 12-8, 3.91 for
Tampa Bay this season

Shields, 30, is a good starting pitcher -- not the kind of guy who's on the short list for Cy Young Awards, but better than anybody the Twins now have.

Shields has won between 11 and 16 games in each of the past six seasons (including this one) while piling up innings (200-plus each season 2007-2011, with 182 so far this year) and racking up above-average strikeout rates.

But the Rays are so awash in young pitching talent that Shields may be no better than their fourth best starter (certainly behind David Price, maybe behind Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson). Plus they have Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and rookie Alex Cobb.

Shields is also getting more expensive than Tampa Bay is likely to retain; his contract has club options for 2013 ($9 million with a $1.5 million buyout) and 2014 ($12 million with a $1 million buyout). They're likely to try to move him this winter.

And first base has been a black hole for the Rays this season as they chase the Yankees. Carlos Pena is hitting .188/.318/.338, which wouldn't get the job done for a Gold Glove shortstop.

Parmelee would fit their mode: Young, cheap, with some positional flexibility -- and he sure looks like he can hit.

With Carl Pavano ($8.5 million), Scott Baker ($6.5 million), Jason Marquis ($3 million) and Francisco Liriano ($5.5 million) all coming off the books, the Twins could certainly absorb Shields' option for 2013, probably for 2014. And he would definitely make the Twins rotation better.

To do such a trade, of course, the Twins would probably want to secure Justin Morneau beyond 2013. If they mistrust his ability to remain healthy and productive, they probably won't want to trade Parmelee.

There may be other reasons either team would shy away from such a deal, but I don't know what they would be. Both teams would be trading from a surplus and filling a need.

Notes, quotes and comment

Commissioner Bud Selig had a backdrop of former
All-Stars for the announcement Wednesday that
Target Field would be the site of the 2014 All-Star game.
Behind the commish: Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Roy Smalley
and Paul Molitor.

 

This was the least-well-kept secret in sometime, but it's official: The 2014 All-Star Game will be played in Target Field.

Call me jaded, but in this era of interleague play and cable, the All-Star Game itself doesn't interest me as much as the Futures Game does. The All-Star Game is now a promotional vehicle for Fox; the Futures Game is a glimpse of, yeah, the future.

---

Also not a surprise: Scott Diamond on Wednesday dropped his appeal and began serving his  suspension. By dragging the process out beyond his Tuesday start, he pushed the time of his next start into September, when the rosters are expanded.

---

What is a surprise: San Deduno didn't walk a man in his seven shutout innings Wednesday. Ninety-eight pitches, 68 strikes — better than two strikes for every ball. I didn't think that kind of performance was possible from him.

Until he does it regularly, though, I'll consider this one a fluke — a fluke that had some help from the Seattle hitters.

---

Jeff Gray was outrighted to Triple A on Wednesday, which opened a spot on the 25-man roster for Chris Parmelee, who promptly stepped into the lineup as the right fielder. (He went 1-for-5 with two runs scored.) With Denard Span again day-to-day with his shoulder/collarbone issue, I would expect Parmelee to get a lot of playing time in right field (with Ben Revere playing center).

The Twins now have three openings on their 40-man roster. One will certainly be filled come September by P.J. Walters, who is apparently about ready to come off the 60-day disabled list.

As with Nick Blackburn, I don't see the Twins outrighting Gray only to turn around and restore him to the 40-man roster so that they can have him in the majors in September. I would think they could find something else to try.

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Lester Oliveros, the hard-throwing relief prospect acquired last year in the Delmon Young trade, had elbow surgery Wednesday that blew into something more than removing bone chips. It turned into Tommy John surgery, which pretty much wipes out his 2013 season.