Catching up on the roster shuffle

I took a rather skeptical view in the Monday print column of the effectiveness of the Twins roster shuffle. To catch up on what's happened:

• LHP Tommy Milone, waived, went unclaimed and was assigned to Rochester. 
• RHP Casey Fien, waived, was claimed by the Los Angeles Dodgers and remains in the majors.
• C John Ryan Murphy was optioned to Rochester.
• SS Eduardo Escobar went on the disabled list.
• LHP Ryan O'Rourke was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
• RHP J.R. Graham was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
• RHP Ervin Santana was activated from the disabled list.
• OF Darin Mastroianni was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
• C Juan Centeno was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
• LHP Pat Dean was called up.
• RHP Brandon Kintzler was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.

That adds up to six of the 25 roster spots, or 24 percent of the roster turned over between the end of Wednesday's game and the beginning of Saturday's. But it only involves one lineup regular (the freshly injured Escobar) and one rotation slot (Santana).

I am, obviously surprised that Milone passed through waivers and Fien did not. I was pretty certain that somebody would think Milone can help their rotation. As I said in the linked column, I'm not pleased with the selection of Kintzler over a higher-profile bullpen arm. (In Thursday's post I mentioned Nick Burdi as a possibility, but he went on the disabled list at Chattanooga with what is being described as a bone bruise on his upper arm.) And while I probably shouldn't make another prediction after getting Milone and Fien wrong, I expect both Graham and O'Rourke to clear waivers and remain in the organization.

And as for the catcher swap-out,  I can only note sourly that the third White Sox run on Sunday was set up when Tyler Duffey struck out a White Sox hitter with a curve in the dirt and it got away from Centeno. That makes 21 wild pitches for the team already. Tim Laudner, on the FSN postgame, made the same point about wild pitches that I have -- they're often partly the catcher's fault, and he clearly was not impressed with Centeno's inability to corral that pitch.

Roster revamp, part 1 (and HBPs)

The only action Brian Dozier (hamstring) saw Friday
was during the bench-clearing late in the game after Chicago's
Jose Abreu (79) was hit by a pitch.

Friday's roster shuffle wasn't exactly what I was anticipating. Tommy Milone and Casey Fien may have been waived, but the waiver period had not expired as of Friday (that will be this afternoon), so they were still on the roster.

Not on the roster because they were "designated for assignment," a move that does immediately take them off the 40-  and 25-man rosters, were J.R. Graham and Ryan O'Rourke, a pair of marginal relievers. Catcher John Ryan Murphy, as expected, was optioned out.

Ervin Santana was activated from the disabled list -- he starts today -- and the Twins selected the contracts of outfielder Darin Mastroianni and catcher Juan Centeno,

So three out and three in on Friday, and presumably three out and three in today, as shortstop Eduardo Escobar got hurt in Friday's game and is apparently headed to the disabled list. Jorge Polanco was pulled from the Rochester game and presumably will take Escobar's roster spot. He might even play a bit this time up.

I'm not sure who will replace Milone and Fien on the roster when their waiver period closes, although J.T. Chargois is a pretty good guess for one slot. Considering the suddenly dilapidated state of the Angels rotation in particular, I can't imagine Milone clearing waivers (two of the Angels starters went on the DL Friday with elbow miseries; one will have Tommy John and the other might). Fien is another matter. I suspect the Twins will retain him in Rochester. (For that matter, I wouldn't be surprised if O'Rourke got claimed by another team; I don't Graham will be leaving the organization.) We'll see soon how all this shakes out.

But other than Chargois and the return of their opening day starter, this (likely) shuffle of six roster slots probably doesn't help the now 8-21 team much. Losing the starting shortstop certainly won't improve things.

You compare the records of Murphy and Centeno, and there's no reason to think Centeno is going to be an upgrade. Even with Murphy's 3-for-40 2016 added in, he's a .242 hitter in 302 career at-bats and turns 25 next week. Centeno is 26 and a .164 hitter in 66 career at-bats. It's an understandable move in the short-term, but Murphy is still the better bet to be an impact catcher.

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Speaking of impacts, the Twins and White Sox engaged in a bit of hit-me, hit-you foolishness Friday. The White Sox plunked Byung Ho Park, and Trevor May responded by putting his fastball in Jose Abreu's ribs. That cleared the dugouts, but the only ejection was of the Chicago manager. Then the Sox hit Kurt Suzuki, who simply went to first base without the Abreu histrionics.

I don't know that the Sox were throwing at Park, although it's possible that somebody took offense to the big guy's swings. But certainly May was retaliating, and just as certainly Sukuki got hit in retaliation for that. Foolishness, as I said, but ... the Twins were getting blown out again, they were headed for 8-21, there were two dead men walking in the bullpen. This is a frustrated and embarrassed team right now, and frustrated and embarrassed people will do foolish things. The Sox don't have that excuse for their foolishness.

That was quick

Alex Meyer reaches for the return throw from Kurt Suzuki
as George Springer scores on Meyer's third-inning wild pitch.

For the second year in a row, Alex Meyer made two appearances, showed a lack of command of his imposing stuff, and was returned to Triple A.

Coming up, to all appearances on a strictly temporary basis, is J.R. Graham. Graham isn't doing all that well at Rochester -- ERA 10.80 in 8.1 innings -- but Ervin Santana is expected to come off the disabled list Friday. Graham will be an extra bullpen arm in the next two days.

As for Meyer -- if he, Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios were indeed dueling to stay in the rotation, I'd say it was a pretty easy call. Meyer, in his first major league start, got through two innings unscathed Tuesday but could not get through the third. He threw 64 pitches and only 34 for strikes. He struck out three, yes, but he also walked three, yielded a home run and threw a wild pitch. He returns to Rochester with a 12.27 ERA.

To be sure, in a way this callup was virtually designed for Meyer to fail. He's notably tall for a pitcher and, as is relatively common for a tall pitcher, has problems maintaining his mechanics. He was pitching in rotation in Rochester and was brought to the majors on his start day to serve as bullpen backup after the 16-inning disaster in Washington, then sat for days. He finally relieved on nine days rest, which in a purely what's-best-for-Alex-Meyer sense was about as poor a usage as one could imagine,

He's not going to thrive on sporadic use. That said, the Greg McMichael rule says: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you. That concept works in reverse, too; to get a role, you have to get outs first, Meyer hasn't pitched well enough to give Paul Molitor reason to want to give him regular work.

Meanwhile: Tommy Milone, in his first bullpen outing of the year, also gave up three runs, also yielded a homer, also threw a wild pitch. It was not a particularly effective bid to return to the rotation. So we can expect a rotation of Phil Hughes, Santana, Ricky Nolasco, Duffey and Berrios at least until Kyle Gibson returns, and there doesn't appear to be a timeline for Gibson.

J.R. Graham's dietary changes

There were reports out of Twins Fest over the weekend that J.R. Graham lost 30 pounds this winter by the simple method of

• eating breakfast regularly;
• cutting out pizza and alcohol

This made me suspect that there are some pizza places wherever it is that Graham calls home that are now on the verge of bankruptcy.

Subsequent reports suggested that the process was a bit more complex than that, and that Graham lost even more than 30 pounds.

Still, the bit about eating breakfast regularly ties into one aspect of the life of a pro baseball player that has to be difficult: the hours are so irregular. Most games are played at night, and half of them are on the road. Team frequently arrive in the next city in the wee hours; a player gets to the hotel at 4 a.m. and crashes.

It's one thing for Graham, or any other pro athlete, to get himself into an ideal routine during the offseason. Sticking to that routine, especially in terms of sleep and diet, during the season is another matter altogether. Some well-paid stars have a personal nutritionist to help them maintain their regimen, but that's not really an option for, say, a prospect in a bus league.

No matter how improved his physical condition, I doubt Graham will make the roster this spring. He stuck on the major league roster all season in 2015, but that was in large part because he was a Rule 5 guy. He doesn't have that lifeline in 2016. It's going to take a lot of somethings for Graham to come north this spring, I suspect -- not only Graham pitching well in camp, but injuries and or trades.  He's one of multiple right-handed hard throwers who'll be in camp, and he's not at the top of the list.

Sean Gilmartin for J.R. Graham revisited

Sean Gilmartin spent one season in the Twins system
before the Mets took in in the Rule 5 draft last December.

I wrote about this "Rule 5 trade" back in May, and after Sean Gilmartin's performance Monday for the Mets -- 3.1 shutout innings in the Amazin's comeback win -- it's worth revisiting.

The Twins acquired Gilmartin, a lefty the Braves had drafted in the first round in 2011, from Atlanta for Ryan Doumit after the 2013 season. Gilmartin opened 2014 in Double A for the Twins and went 7-3, 3.12 in 12 starts, 72 innings. They moved him up to Triple A halfway through the season, and he was 2-4, 4.28 in 14 starts, 73.2 innings there. Combined, he was 9-7, 3.71 at the two highest levels of the minor league ladder in 145.2 innings, with good walk (2.8) and strikeout (8.2) rates.

The Twins left him off the 40-man roster. They used that roster slot instead to take J.R. Graham from the Braves in the Rule 5 draft. The Mets took Gilmartin.

Rule 5 picks can't be optioned. They are use or lose, and most are returned to their original organization, Both Gilmartin and Graham have stuck, however, and with less than a week until the rosters expand, it is certain their drafting teams will retain their rights.

It's quite likely that the Twins will option Graham out next year. The righty has a big arm, but he also has a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings, and Paul Molitor has never been comfortable using him in winnable games. (The Twins have won just 12 of his 33 appearances, and most of those were blowouts.) He's given up at least one run in his last six appearances in which he's retired a batter.

Gilmartin, on the other hand, is 3-1, 2.34 after Monday's win. The Mets have used him a bit more often than the Twins have used Graham and for shorter stints -- he gets some LOOGY work, being left-handed -- and have generally avoided using him in close games, although he's gotten decisions in each of his last three outings. He doesn't have the velocity Graham does, but (again) he's left-handed. It's easier to imagine the Mets keeping him around next spring.

Here's a telling comparison: Gilmartin has been charged with 11 runs allowed all season. Graham has allowed 10 home runs.

The Twins may not regret drafting Graham and tying up a roster spot with him. That pick was about the future and about adding velocity, and he may eventually turn into a usable relief arm. But they ought to regret losing Gilmartin in the process.   

The Twins Rule 5 'trade'

Sean Gilmartin was a starter
in college and the minors, but he's
working out of the Mets bullpen this year.

The Twins are apparently committed to carrying Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham on their active roster all season. That intent may be tested if they remain in contention and if Graham can't be relied on in winnable games.

Those are two "ifs," which makes it a highly hypothetical question. For what it's worth, Graham has a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings, mostly compiled in mop-up outings. That's the fourth-best ERA in the current eight-man bullpen, but he's not nearly that high in the bullpen totem pole.

The Twins were able to pluck Graham out of the Atlanta system because they chose not to put Sean Gilmartin on their 40-man roster last fall. Gilmartin is a left-handed pitcher the Braves took in the first round in 2011, then traded to the Twins after the 2013 season for Ryan Doumit. He split 2014 between Double A and Triple A in the Twins system, compiling a combined mark of 9-7, 3.71 in 145.2 innings over 26 starts.

Leaving Gilmartin off the 40 gave the Twins an open spot to use in the Rule 5 draft to get Graham. And then the New York Mets took Gilmartin. It wasn't a formal trade, but that's what it amounted to, Graham for Gilmartin. (Or, if you like, Doumit for Gilmartin for Graham for the course of a year.)

J.R. Graham's
presence on the roster
is more about the
future than about
2015.

As Rule 5 picks, Graham and Gilmartin can't be optioned out. They are use or lose. And with both the Twins and Mets both providing at least the illusion of contention through Memorial Day, they'd like to get something useful out of them.

Gilmartin, a starter in the minors for both the Braves and Twins, is the second lefty in the Mets bullpen behind Alex Torres. He's made 17 appearances and worked 14.2 innings (3.07 ERA), which suggests a LOOGY role (Left-handed One Out GuY), but he has appeared just once in a save situation. It's a different usage pattern than for Graham, who has pitched in 13 games and thrown 17.1 innings. Graham leads the Twins in innings per relief appearance. But I don't believe Gilmartin is being given chances to lose games any more than Graham is.

Graham is also second to Glen Perkins on the Twins in "games finished," a stat that serves in bonus clauses as a stand-in for saves and as a rough measure historically of relief ace status. In his case, of course, it serves no such purpose. He's finishing one-sided games, not close ones.

J.R. Graham and the immediate future of the bullpen

J.R. Graham threw 33
pitches Wednesday
night, 20 for strikes.

There was no hiding J.R. Graham Wednesday night. The Rule 5 power arm had to pitch in a game situation, and he did very well: three innings, one single, no walks, two strikeouts.

Paul Molitor has avoided Graham in important innings for more than a month. Wednesday was his first outing since April 13 (the home opener) that wasn't mopping up. His previous eight appearances finished games with a margin of five or more runs.

Graham has, probably, the best stuff on the staff. He also is better fit right now for the minors. But as a Rule 5 guy, he's got to stay on the 25-man roster or the Twins will likely lose his rights. I expect him to stick, but if the Twins are indeed going to contend this year, he'll have to contribute some meaningful innings.

Which he did on Wednesday.

It was an interesting win in terms of the bullpen. Aaron Thompson and Blaine Boyer, who have emerged as Molitor's favored set-up options, were something less than stellar (three hits and a run combined for three total outs). Graham and beleaguered veteran Brian Duensing combined for four scoreless frames.

And some roster decisions loom. Tim Stauffer is on a rehab assignment. Casey Fien is about to begin his. My opinion: I'd rather have any of the roster's current seven bullpen guys (Boyer, Duensing, Graham, Glen Perkins, Ryan Pressly, Thompson and Michael Tonkin) than Stauffer, and were it up to me the transaction when Stauffer's rehab time is done will read: Activated from the disabled list and designated for assignment.

Fien is another matter. I don't regard him as an outstanding eighth-inning guy, but he's earned a continued opportunity to perform. The guys on the bubble are probably Pressly and Duensing. But Fien's not ready yet, and that decision doesn't have to be made now.

Winter meetings, Day Four: The Twins act

Ervin Santana began his career with
the Angels. He was known as
Johan Santana while in the minors
but changed to Ervin to avoid
confusion with the then-Twins ace.

And on the fourth day, things happened.

The Twins had been bystanders for the first three days of the witner meetings, but on Thursday -- moving day as the annual confab broke up -- things fell into place.

The biggest news for the Twins was the reported agreement with pitcher Ervin Santana. Four years, $55 million guaranteed. The deal both supplants last winter's Rick Nolasco deal as the largest free-agent signing in Twins history and marks the first time the Twins have surrendered a draft pick to sign a free agent.

The Twins' first round pick in June's draft is protected, so they gave up their second-rounder.

Santana is a better pitcher than Nolasco, but he's not the kind of pitcher one wants to have starting Game One of a playoff series.

What I said yesterday stands. I believe the top priority should be opening a path to the rotation for Alex Meyer and (to a lesser extent) Trevor May. Meyer might be that elusive top-of-the-rotation arm, but the Twins seem determined to block his ascension with large barricades of cash.

Reshaping the rotation means moving some of the incumbents out. There has been no sign of that yet. Bu there's plenty of offseason ahead, and the Twins have to lop somebody from the 40 when the signing becomes official.

---

A secondary aspect to Thursday was the Rule 5 draft. The Twins plucked J.R. Graham, a short right-handed pitcher, from Atlanta. Graham was a high-velocity guy before suffering a shoulder injury; Baseball America once viewed him as Atlanta's second-best prospect, But last year he had a 5.55 ERA in Double A, mostly as a starter, and the Braves opted not to protect him.

The Twins see him as a potential bullpen piece. He either spends next season on the major league roster or is offered back to Atlanta. Graham fills the roster spot opened a few days ago when Chris Colabello was claimed on waivers by Toronto.

The Twins also lost left-handed pitcher Sean Gilmartin to the Mets. Gilmartin, a former first-round pick by the Braves, came to the Twins in the Ryan Doumit trade last December. He split 2014 between Double A and Triple A and didn't impress the Twins enough to get put on the 40-man roster.

The odds are always against Rule 5 draftees. Their original clubs didn't think highly enough of them to put them on the 40, and the new club has to commit to keeping them on the 25. That's a high standard. The Twins did make it work a couple years ago with Ryan Pressly, and of course Johan Santana is the gold standard of Rule 5 picks.