Jose Berrios didn't fare well Tuesday night. His first pitch was hit about as well as the last pitch on Monday night was -- both blasts hit the limestone above the batter's eye -- and things deteriorated from there.
I shall avoid dwelling on that unpleasantness and find some other things to comment on ...
* I said in Tuesday morning's post that Trevor May hit 98 at times on Monday night. He actually peaked at 100, on the pitch that got the double-play grounder that got him out of the eighth inning. I don't know that I've seen any Twins pitcher hit triple-digits.
It was rather optimal conditions for May. He had thrown exactly one pitch in game conditions in a week, so his arm was about as fresh as it could be in August. It was a warm, humid night, so no chill to contract the muscles. And it was a close game in a pennant race, so the adrenaline was flowing.
If he was going to throw 100, that was a prime opportunity for it.
* Jonathan Schoop has started once in the past six games. I'm starting to suspect that he might be a candidate to be DFA'd if the Twins need a roster spot.
He has been better this year than in 2018, but that's not saying much. And much of his production has come in blowouts. He is, I believe, a better defensive second baseman than Luis Arraez, but not enough to make up for the difference between the two at the plate.
I certainly prefer to see Arraez at the plate in the ninth inning of a tied game than Schoop.
* I've commented before on how much Rocco Baldelli shuffles players around various positions. Marwin Gonzalez, Arraez, Ehrie Adrianza and the injured Willians Astudillo have all started games at at least four different positions.
Deciding where to put them is frequently an interesting puzzle. On Monday Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza were all in the infield (with Jorge Polanco at shortstop). Baldelli's alignment had Adrianza at first, Arraez at second and Gonzalez at third. My inclination would have been to flip Adrianza and Gonzalez.
I do sometimes wonder how much of a connection there is between the position shuffling and the misplays and errors we've seen over the past couple of months. The Twins were changed with 77 errors in their first 112 games; the average team had 69.
Of course, there's a lot more to defense than avoiding errors, and the Twins, at least by the defensive metrics available on baseball reference, are solidly above average.
Showing posts with label Luis Arraez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luis Arraez. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Monday, June 3, 2019
Thoughts from the weekend
Taking three of four from a quality team -- and the Tampa Bay Rays are a quality team -- can give a fan base something to smile about.
Seeing a bullpen meltdown turn an easy win into a close win can give a fan base something to fret about.
The Twins do have an off day now, so going through four relievers in three innings after cutting back a pitcher shouldn't be a problem. But I'm sure Rocco Baldelli would have preferred to give Taylor Rogers another day without work.
---
Taylor Rogers has an identical twin brother, Tyler, who pitches in Triple A for the Giants and has never gotten a callup.
There are differences in these identical Twins, not least of which is that Tyler is right-handed. And there must be a reason the Giants, who have had a few bullpen problems in recent years, haven't brought Tyler up.
Still, I frequently think while watching Taylor carve up batters for an inning or two: There's another Rogers brother who's probably available.
---
The Twins optioned out Zack Littell on Sunday and reactivated Mitch Garver from the injured list (Garver caught and led off). After the game, they optioned out Luis Arraez with a coresponding move to come Tuesday, almost certainly reactivating Nelson Cruz.
How long will the Twins go with 12 pitchers rather than 13? They do have two offdays in eight days -- today and next Monday -- and the six games in between come against two of the three least potent lineups in the American League in Cleveland and Detroit. But I doubt this is a permanent condition.
---
The draft begins tonight, and the Twins pick 13th. I have seen no consensus in mock drafts on who the Twins are likely to take, but it's likely to be a hitter. Two names connected to the 13th pick with some frequency: Shea Langeliers, a catcher from Baylor who has slid a bit this spring, and Keoni Cavaco, a high school infielder who has risen sharply as the spring progressed.
I'm not qualified to have an opinion. I will note that the Twins last summer picked a bunch of potential catchers. Drafting for need in the first round is always a mistake regardless of the sport, and quality catchers are hard to come up with, so Langeliers wouldn't be a shocker, but the Twins right now seem pretty deep in catchers.
Seeing a bullpen meltdown turn an easy win into a close win can give a fan base something to fret about.
The Twins do have an off day now, so going through four relievers in three innings after cutting back a pitcher shouldn't be a problem. But I'm sure Rocco Baldelli would have preferred to give Taylor Rogers another day without work.
---
Taylor Rogers has an identical twin brother, Tyler, who pitches in Triple A for the Giants and has never gotten a callup.
There are differences in these identical Twins, not least of which is that Tyler is right-handed. And there must be a reason the Giants, who have had a few bullpen problems in recent years, haven't brought Tyler up.
Still, I frequently think while watching Taylor carve up batters for an inning or two: There's another Rogers brother who's probably available.
---
The Twins optioned out Zack Littell on Sunday and reactivated Mitch Garver from the injured list (Garver caught and led off). After the game, they optioned out Luis Arraez with a coresponding move to come Tuesday, almost certainly reactivating Nelson Cruz.
How long will the Twins go with 12 pitchers rather than 13? They do have two offdays in eight days -- today and next Monday -- and the six games in between come against two of the three least potent lineups in the American League in Cleveland and Detroit. But I doubt this is a permanent condition.
---
The draft begins tonight, and the Twins pick 13th. I have seen no consensus in mock drafts on who the Twins are likely to take, but it's likely to be a hitter. Two names connected to the 13th pick with some frequency: Shea Langeliers, a catcher from Baylor who has slid a bit this spring, and Keoni Cavaco, a high school infielder who has risen sharply as the spring progressed.
I'm not qualified to have an opinion. I will note that the Twins last summer picked a bunch of potential catchers. Drafting for need in the first round is always a mistake regardless of the sport, and quality catchers are hard to come up with, so Langeliers wouldn't be a shocker, but the Twins right now seem pretty deep in catchers.
Monday, May 27, 2019
An overthought from the weekend
The Twins have a 10-game lead on Memorial Day.
I was optimistic about this team when the season opened, but I didn't expect this.
---
This is probably overthinking the weekend, but I keep trying to find significance in an insignificant end-of-game move Saturday.
Rocco Baldelli started Jorge Polanco at designated hitter that game, with Miguel Sano at third and Ehire Adrianza at short. Late in the game, Baldelli pulled Sano for Luis Arraez, but inserted the rookie at shortstop and shifted Adrianza to third.
Adrianza's base position is shortstop. Arraez's is second base, but he had split this season in the minors almost evenly between second and third. He has very little time at shortstop. It seems to me more likely that if those two are on the left side of the infield that Arraez would be at third and Adrianza at short.
So why flip them? My overthought: If and when this team gets back to full health, Baldelli will have an overcrowded roster. At some point Nelson Cruz (wrist) and Mitch Garver (ankle) will come off the injured list, and two players on the active roster will have to come off. And unless somebody else goes on the injured list, those moves are difficult to identify.
Arraez, who has now played more in the majors than he has in Triple A, is a likely first demotion, not because he's struggled in the majors but because he's optionable and wasn't really expected to be knocking on the door at this point anyway. A second ...
Willians Astudillo is optionable, but I think the Twins want his unique skill set in the majors. Dropping to 12 pitchers is certainly a possibility -- the back end of the 'pen has been underused for more than a week -- but every time they do that they rapidly decide they need the 13th.
Which takes me to Adrianza. He's out of options, so the Twins would have to put him on waivers. If he clears, they presumably can outright him to Triple A and still have him available if they need another infielder in the majors. But what if somebody claims him? What do the Twins have as org depth at shortstop?
They have not played Marwin Gonzalez in the middle infield yet, in large part because Adrianza has been on the roster all season. DFA Adrianza, and Gonzalez would presumably become the No. 2 shortstop and second baseman behind Polanco and Jonathan Schoop. That works unless and until somebody goes on the injured list.
Behind them: Nick Gordon is on the 40-man roster and at Rochester, but he's only played a dozen games because of injury. Ronald Torreyes, who had a few good seasons on the Yankees bench and was signed as a minor-league free agent, is hitting under .150 at Rochester.
So they take a look at Arraez at short. They're not going to see that he can definitely handle the position in one or two innings, but it plants the seed in his mind that this team might need him to play shortstop down the road.
Arraez at short isn't ideal, and it may never be necessary. But that possibility, however thin, might be behind that slightly odd Saturday move.
I was optimistic about this team when the season opened, but I didn't expect this.
---
This is probably overthinking the weekend, but I keep trying to find significance in an insignificant end-of-game move Saturday.
Rocco Baldelli started Jorge Polanco at designated hitter that game, with Miguel Sano at third and Ehire Adrianza at short. Late in the game, Baldelli pulled Sano for Luis Arraez, but inserted the rookie at shortstop and shifted Adrianza to third.
Adrianza's base position is shortstop. Arraez's is second base, but he had split this season in the minors almost evenly between second and third. He has very little time at shortstop. It seems to me more likely that if those two are on the left side of the infield that Arraez would be at third and Adrianza at short.
So why flip them? My overthought: If and when this team gets back to full health, Baldelli will have an overcrowded roster. At some point Nelson Cruz (wrist) and Mitch Garver (ankle) will come off the injured list, and two players on the active roster will have to come off. And unless somebody else goes on the injured list, those moves are difficult to identify.
Arraez, who has now played more in the majors than he has in Triple A, is a likely first demotion, not because he's struggled in the majors but because he's optionable and wasn't really expected to be knocking on the door at this point anyway. A second ...
Willians Astudillo is optionable, but I think the Twins want his unique skill set in the majors. Dropping to 12 pitchers is certainly a possibility -- the back end of the 'pen has been underused for more than a week -- but every time they do that they rapidly decide they need the 13th.
Which takes me to Adrianza. He's out of options, so the Twins would have to put him on waivers. If he clears, they presumably can outright him to Triple A and still have him available if they need another infielder in the majors. But what if somebody claims him? What do the Twins have as org depth at shortstop?
They have not played Marwin Gonzalez in the middle infield yet, in large part because Adrianza has been on the roster all season. DFA Adrianza, and Gonzalez would presumably become the No. 2 shortstop and second baseman behind Polanco and Jonathan Schoop. That works unless and until somebody goes on the injured list.
Behind them: Nick Gordon is on the 40-man roster and at Rochester, but he's only played a dozen games because of injury. Ronald Torreyes, who had a few good seasons on the Yankees bench and was signed as a minor-league free agent, is hitting under .150 at Rochester.
So they take a look at Arraez at short. They're not going to see that he can definitely handle the position in one or two innings, but it plants the seed in his mind that this team might need him to play shortstop down the road.
Arraez at short isn't ideal, and it may never be necessary. But that possibility, however thin, might be behind that slightly odd Saturday move.
Monday, May 20, 2019
Contemplating Luis Arraez
The Twins carried Nelson Cruz and his ailing wrist on the active roster for a few days but finally moved him to the injured list and called up infielder Luis Arraez.
The 22-year-old Venezuelan debuted as a mid-game substitution Saturday and got a double; he started Sunday's loss and got a single and a pair of walks.
I saw him a few years ago when he was with Cedar Rapids. Here's what I wrote about him then.
And I'm not sure there's much more to add to it. He's hit on every level (.331 career in the minors), he draws about as many walks as strikeouts, he doesn't hit many homers (six in six professional seasons), and while Dick Bremer said on one of the telecasts that his defense has improved, I'm pretty certain he lacks the arm for third or short. (I do see that he played about as often at third base for Pensacola as he did at second before he moved up to Triple A Rochester.)
The bat-to-ball skill is impressive. Everything else feels a bit light.
The future of the Twins infield is more likely to be built around Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and Wander Javier than around Arraez. He might become a major league regular, but I suspect it will require a trade. If he keeps on hitting, and there's no reason to doubt that, he might be a pretty decent trade chip as early as this summer.
The 22-year-old Venezuelan debuted as a mid-game substitution Saturday and got a double; he started Sunday's loss and got a single and a pair of walks.
I saw him a few years ago when he was with Cedar Rapids. Here's what I wrote about him then.
And I'm not sure there's much more to add to it. He's hit on every level (.331 career in the minors), he draws about as many walks as strikeouts, he doesn't hit many homers (six in six professional seasons), and while Dick Bremer said on one of the telecasts that his defense has improved, I'm pretty certain he lacks the arm for third or short. (I do see that he played about as often at third base for Pensacola as he did at second before he moved up to Triple A Rochester.)
The bat-to-ball skill is impressive. Everything else feels a bit light.
The future of the Twins infield is more likely to be built around Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and Wander Javier than around Arraez. He might become a major league regular, but I suspect it will require a trade. If he keeps on hitting, and there's no reason to doubt that, he might be a pretty decent trade chip as early as this summer.
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Gordon and Arraez
The Twins sent four more prospects who aren't contenders for the opening roster to the minor league side Tuesday. Two of them were infielders Nick Gordon and Luis Arraez.
Gordon is the name, the first-round pick who is the son of one All-Star player and the brother of another. Arraez is the one I think has a chance to be a useful major league player.
Rocco Baldelli, speaking about Gordon after a game this weekend in which Gordon hit a ball over the center fielder's head for a triple, said Gordon, despite his skinny frame, is "plenty strong enough/" But the rookie manager mentioned endurance as a question mark without going into details. Gordon has fallen off sharply in the second half pretty much every season as a pro -- and, of course, in the majors there's another month of play to get through.
Gordon's tools are routinely described by Baseball America as average across the board. That's not to be disparaged, but it is difficult to identify something you'd put him in the lineup to do. (Despite his slender frame and the relationship to speedster Dee Gordon, Nick is not a particularly fast runner.)
Arraez is a player with more obvious flaws. There is debate about whether Gordon can play short in the majors; nobody even asks that question about Arraez. While he gets a few games a year at third and short, he's a second baseman, and not a sensation there either. He's not fast, and he's never hit more than three homers in a minor league season.
But he can hit line drives. His minor league batting average, mostly compiled in the lower levels, is .329. He seldom strikes out. The bat is real.
It's an uphill fight, really, for both of them. The Twins signed Jorge Polanco to a multi-year deal, and my expectation is that he'll move to second when uber-prospect Royce Lewis is deemed ready for the shortstop job in Minnesota. Wander Javier, another shortstop prospect who lost last season to injury, has reportedly been wowing observers on the minor league side.
Gordon and Arraez are sandwiched between these guys, and it will probably require trade or injury for either to get a shot in a major league lineup, not that either is ready for that opportunity quite yet.
Gordon is the name, the first-round pick who is the son of one All-Star player and the brother of another. Arraez is the one I think has a chance to be a useful major league player.
Rocco Baldelli, speaking about Gordon after a game this weekend in which Gordon hit a ball over the center fielder's head for a triple, said Gordon, despite his skinny frame, is "plenty strong enough/" But the rookie manager mentioned endurance as a question mark without going into details. Gordon has fallen off sharply in the second half pretty much every season as a pro -- and, of course, in the majors there's another month of play to get through.
Gordon's tools are routinely described by Baseball America as average across the board. That's not to be disparaged, but it is difficult to identify something you'd put him in the lineup to do. (Despite his slender frame and the relationship to speedster Dee Gordon, Nick is not a particularly fast runner.)
Arraez is a player with more obvious flaws. There is debate about whether Gordon can play short in the majors; nobody even asks that question about Arraez. While he gets a few games a year at third and short, he's a second baseman, and not a sensation there either. He's not fast, and he's never hit more than three homers in a minor league season.
But he can hit line drives. His minor league batting average, mostly compiled in the lower levels, is .329. He seldom strikes out. The bat is real.
It's an uphill fight, really, for both of them. The Twins signed Jorge Polanco to a multi-year deal, and my expectation is that he'll move to second when uber-prospect Royce Lewis is deemed ready for the shortstop job in Minnesota. Wander Javier, another shortstop prospect who lost last season to injury, has reportedly been wowing observers on the minor league side.
Gordon and Arraez are sandwiched between these guys, and it will probably require trade or injury for either to get a shot in a major league lineup, not that either is ready for that opportunity quite yet.
Monday, March 6, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment
A few news items and links that piled up last week while I did my silly "Guess Who" series:
* Alex Kirilloff, the Twins' first-round draftee last June and their No. 3 prospect in the Baseball America rankings, will have Tommy John surgery this week and is out for the season.
Comment: Kirilloff is no longer incentive to get to Cedar Rapids before Memorial Day. I had figured that he might, as Byron Buxton did, spend only a half season or so in the Midwest League, and I wanted to see the kid hit before he moved on. Wait until next year.
* Fangraphs issued its "all KATOH" team -- minor leaguers whose stats impress but who are not, for various reasons, beloved by scouts. Three Twins farmhands make this imaginary roster: second baseman Luis Arraez, outfielder Zack Granite, and pitcher Adalberto Mejia.
Comment: Accurately judging prospects requires more than "scouting the stat line," but production matters too. If they keep producing, they'll get their chance despite the scouts' reservations about their physical limitations.
* This is set to publish less than a half-hour before the first game of the World Baseball Classic, with Pool A and Pool B opening play in South Korea and Japan.
Comment: The WBC isn't a big deal here in the States -- Noah Syndergaard turned down Team USA and said something like: Nobody goes to the Hall of Fame or wins the World Series by playing in the WBC -- but it is to a lot of the non-Amercian players, and the Twins have a goodly number slated to play in this tournament.
* And, finally, I recommend this Jeff Passan piece on Statcast and MLB Advanced Media's efforts to make advanced stats accessible and digestible.
* Alex Kirilloff, the Twins' first-round draftee last June and their No. 3 prospect in the Baseball America rankings, will have Tommy John surgery this week and is out for the season.
Comment: Kirilloff is no longer incentive to get to Cedar Rapids before Memorial Day. I had figured that he might, as Byron Buxton did, spend only a half season or so in the Midwest League, and I wanted to see the kid hit before he moved on. Wait until next year.
* Fangraphs issued its "all KATOH" team -- minor leaguers whose stats impress but who are not, for various reasons, beloved by scouts. Three Twins farmhands make this imaginary roster: second baseman Luis Arraez, outfielder Zack Granite, and pitcher Adalberto Mejia.
Comment: Accurately judging prospects requires more than "scouting the stat line," but production matters too. If they keep producing, they'll get their chance despite the scouts' reservations about their physical limitations.
* This is set to publish less than a half-hour before the first game of the World Baseball Classic, with Pool A and Pool B opening play in South Korea and Japan.
Comment: The WBC isn't a big deal here in the States -- Noah Syndergaard turned down Team USA and said something like: Nobody goes to the Hall of Fame or wins the World Series by playing in the WBC -- but it is to a lot of the non-Amercian players, and the Twins have a goodly number slated to play in this tournament.
* And, finally, I recommend this Jeff Passan piece on Statcast and MLB Advanced Media's efforts to make advanced stats accessible and digestible.
Wednesday, September 7, 2016
A trip to Cedar Rapids: Hitters
The Cedar Rapids Kernels -- the low A affiliate of the Twins -- will be in the the Midwest League playoffs this week as the second half champions of the West Division. It's the fourth straight year the manager Jake Mauer has piloted the Kernels into the league playoffs, and it's all the more impressive because there really isn't much on the roster in terms of high picks and name prospects.
The only player on the roster last weekend who Baseball America listed on its preseason top 31 prospects for the Twins is infielder Travis Blankenhorn, who was their third-round pick in 2015. He's a left-handed hitter who was drafted as a third baseman but has played mostly second base when in the field this year and DH'd more than anything. BA listed him as the Twins 26th prospect in the spring.
He played second base and hit fourth Saturday against a lefty, third base and hit fifth on Sunday against a righty and wasn't in the lineup at all on Monday (another lefty). He did nothing in either game that particularly caught my eye, but Friday was probably a really bad day for everybody on the team -- they'd played (and won) a 16-inning game Thursday night and then had a 5.5 hour bus ride back to Cedar Rapids, so it was probably a really tired squad.
Three other infielders have had interesting seasons.
Luis Arraez, a smallish left-handed hitting second baseman from Venezuela, hit .347 with 31 doubles in a full season with Cedar Rapids, leading the Midwest League in batting average. He's only 19. Baseball Reference lists him as 155 pounds, but the Kernels roster lists him at 175, and I'd say the latter is more likely accurate right now. He started just the one game against a righty (Saturday) and had one hit but stung the ball two other times. He also got hit in the upper chest/neck by a ground ball.
.347 is .347, even in low A, and I would expect Arreaz to show up on prospect lists this winter. He's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Nelson Molina is a skinny guy -- 6-foot-3, 165 pounds according to the roster and looks it -- but he hit .304, albeit without the doubles power Arraez displayed. The Puerto Rican played third base on Friday and shortstop on Sunday. He's 21, and if he is going to have a future he needs to get stronger.
Zander Wiel is plenty big (6-3, 220) and led the Kernels in home runs and RBIs; in fact, he led the Midwest League in RBIs and was second in homers. We saw him homer on Saturday, his 17th of the season; we left Monday's game early and missed two more homers from him. He hit 15 of his 19 homers in the second half of the season, doubtless a big reason why the Kernels had such a strong second half. But .. he's 23, a bit old for the league, and he's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hit under .260. Right-handed hitters limited to first base have to really mash to get to the majors, and I doubt Wiel qualifies.
The only player on the roster last weekend who Baseball America listed on its preseason top 31 prospects for the Twins is infielder Travis Blankenhorn, who was their third-round pick in 2015. He's a left-handed hitter who was drafted as a third baseman but has played mostly second base when in the field this year and DH'd more than anything. BA listed him as the Twins 26th prospect in the spring.
He played second base and hit fourth Saturday against a lefty, third base and hit fifth on Sunday against a righty and wasn't in the lineup at all on Monday (another lefty). He did nothing in either game that particularly caught my eye, but Friday was probably a really bad day for everybody on the team -- they'd played (and won) a 16-inning game Thursday night and then had a 5.5 hour bus ride back to Cedar Rapids, so it was probably a really tired squad.
Scouting the stat line
Three other infielders have had interesting seasons.
Luis Arraez, a smallish left-handed hitting second baseman from Venezuela, hit .347 with 31 doubles in a full season with Cedar Rapids, leading the Midwest League in batting average. He's only 19. Baseball Reference lists him as 155 pounds, but the Kernels roster lists him at 175, and I'd say the latter is more likely accurate right now. He started just the one game against a righty (Saturday) and had one hit but stung the ball two other times. He also got hit in the upper chest/neck by a ground ball.
.347 is .347, even in low A, and I would expect Arreaz to show up on prospect lists this winter. He's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Nelson Molina is a skinny guy -- 6-foot-3, 165 pounds according to the roster and looks it -- but he hit .304, albeit without the doubles power Arraez displayed. The Puerto Rican played third base on Friday and shortstop on Sunday. He's 21, and if he is going to have a future he needs to get stronger.
Zander Wiel is plenty big (6-3, 220) and led the Kernels in home runs and RBIs; in fact, he led the Midwest League in RBIs and was second in homers. We saw him homer on Saturday, his 17th of the season; we left Monday's game early and missed two more homers from him. He hit 15 of his 19 homers in the second half of the season, doubtless a big reason why the Kernels had such a strong second half. But .. he's 23, a bit old for the league, and he's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hit under .260. Right-handed hitters limited to first base have to really mash to get to the majors, and I doubt Wiel qualifies.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)