Michael Pineda came off the injured list and threw five innings Thursday. His first four innings were really good. His fifth was better than it looked. He was charged with three earned runs, but that's because the scoring rules say you can't assume the double play.
Jorge Polanco's throwing error, on that basis, cost the Twins bases but not an out. The reality is, if he makes an on-target throw, Pineda gets out of the fifth allowing just the lead off homer. Maybe he would have gotten the ball to at least start the sixth in that case, maybe not. He struggled to get his fourth out of the fifth and there wasn't any question that he was done after five.
That makes four errors in three games for Polanco -- two muffed catches, two errant throws. At least three of them have come on potential double plays. He really needs to clean it up.
Devin Smeltzer mopped up -- four innings, three earned runs and a save in a game in which he never had less than a six or seven run lead. The scoring rules say a pitcher who finishes a win with three or more innings holding a lead of any size gets a save. That sounds goofy, but Smeltzer at least saved the rest of the bullpen.
He becomes, incidentally, the eighth Twin credited with a save this season. I tried off the top of my head to list the eight during my midnight walk home after work and missed one. The eight: Taylor Rogers (18), Blake Parker (10), Sergio Romo (2), Ryne Harper (1), Mike Morin (1), Trevor May (1), Trevor Hildenberger (1), and Smeltzer (1).
Parker and Morin are both with the Phillies now, and Hildenberger and Smeltzer, with his immediate demotion after throwing 68 pitches, are in the minors.
Showing posts with label Jorge Polanco. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jorge Polanco. Show all posts
Friday, August 16, 2019
Thursday, August 15, 2019
One that got away
The Twins had an opportunity to extend their lead, but didn't take advantage of it. Putting the eighth-inning problems concisely:
Two interesting developments regarding minor league bullpen possibilities on Wednesday.
First, the Twins lost Ryan Eades to the Baltimore Orioles on waivers. Eades had a brief callup earlier in the season, pitching in two games. He had 3.2 scoreless innings but had six baserunners.
This is a good development for the right-hander; he's got a lot more opportunity with the Birds, who have a team ERA of 5.91 and have gone through 36 pitchers this year. (Some of them are position players, but still ...)
Selling off Eades opens a spot on the Twins 40-man roster, which would allow them to add somebody on waivers or to bring up somebody who isn't on the 40 already.
The odds are against a useful piece hitting outright waivers. The odds are even more against a useful actually reaching the Twins, who do have the fourth-best record in baseball despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. So the more likely benefit from the Eades move is to create a route for a not-on-the-40 player to come to the Twins.
Which brings us to the other development: Brusdar Graterol, generally considered the Twins' top pitching prospect, made his first relief appearance since 2017 (his first season in the states), picking up the save for Double-A Pensacola and reportedly hitting 102 on the radar gun.
I'm personally skeptical of the notion that the 20-year-old will get a September role. That he pitched in relief isn't surprising despite his lack of such use. He's missed much of the season with injury, and they weren't going to have him trying to goe five innings (or more) fresh off the injured list.
But I get why outside observers might anticipate such a move. The Twins bullpen lacks power arms, and Graterol is certainly a power arm. Since he has just 12 games pitched on his 2019 stat line, the Twins don't need to shut him down to avoid overuse.
- Sergio Romo is probably not the best right-hander in the pen to face a lefty with power and
- Jorge Polanco is in a fielding slump at shortstop.
Two interesting developments regarding minor league bullpen possibilities on Wednesday.
First, the Twins lost Ryan Eades to the Baltimore Orioles on waivers. Eades had a brief callup earlier in the season, pitching in two games. He had 3.2 scoreless innings but had six baserunners.
This is a good development for the right-hander; he's got a lot more opportunity with the Birds, who have a team ERA of 5.91 and have gone through 36 pitchers this year. (Some of them are position players, but still ...)
Selling off Eades opens a spot on the Twins 40-man roster, which would allow them to add somebody on waivers or to bring up somebody who isn't on the 40 already.
The odds are against a useful piece hitting outright waivers. The odds are even more against a useful actually reaching the Twins, who do have the fourth-best record in baseball despite all the wailing and gnashing of teeth. So the more likely benefit from the Eades move is to create a route for a not-on-the-40 player to come to the Twins.
Which brings us to the other development: Brusdar Graterol, generally considered the Twins' top pitching prospect, made his first relief appearance since 2017 (his first season in the states), picking up the save for Double-A Pensacola and reportedly hitting 102 on the radar gun.
I'm personally skeptical of the notion that the 20-year-old will get a September role. That he pitched in relief isn't surprising despite his lack of such use. He's missed much of the season with injury, and they weren't going to have him trying to goe five innings (or more) fresh off the injured list.
But I get why outside observers might anticipate such a move. The Twins bullpen lacks power arms, and Graterol is certainly a power arm. Since he has just 12 games pitched on his 2019 stat line, the Twins don't need to shut him down to avoid overuse.
Friday, June 28, 2019
Notes, quotes and comment
Jorge Polanco won the runoff election and is the starting shortstop for the American League in the All Star game. He becomes the first Twin elected to the starting lineup since Joe Mauer in 2013.
And good for him. I wouldn't go so far as to claim he's the best shortstop in the league -- put him on the same team as Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa, and Polanco is playing a different position -- but he's obviously having a great season, without the injuries of the other two. If you think the All-Star Game is for the guys having the best first half, he belongs.
I expect to expound on this subject for the Monday print column, but in my mind Polanco has established himself as the best homegrown shortstop in Minnesota Twins history. That's a low bar to clear, and there may be better shortstops coming through the system, but Polanco is certainly no slouch.
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Rough loss on Thursday: 18 innings, the entire bullpen deployed, and probably a roster move or two ahead.
Luis Arraez was in left field with Eddie Rosario sidelined by his ankle sprain, and I suspect that Rosario would have caught the second-inning double that brought in the first Tampa Bay run. Catch that ball, and who knows what the final outcome is.
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Outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr. was indeed called up in the wake of Rosario's injury. But it wasn't Rosario who went on the injured list.
It was La Tortuga, Willians Astudillo, with a strained oblique. It's his second stint on the IL.
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Outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr. was indeed called up in the wake of Rosario's injury. But it wasn't Rosario who went on the injured list.
It was La Tortuga, Willians Astudillo, with a strained oblique. It's his second stint on the IL.
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On Wednesday, Escobar went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI in the Diamondbacks’ win over the Dodgers in Phoenix. After the game he got on a private plane provided by the Dbacks team owners and flew 1,972 miles to Miami. The reason: his two sons, 11-year-old Eduardo Escobar Jr., and 8-year-old Raul Escobar had an immigration hearing in Miami yesterday morning in which each of them were granted their green cards.Escobar has 18 homers so far this year for the D'backs with a .284 batting average. It's not like the Twins are in need of his power, but he's having a good season, and he's Eduardo Escobar, and I miss rooting for him. I'm glad he's got his kids in the States.
One successful hearing and, presumably, a lot of family hugs later, Escobar got back on the plane and flew 2,585 miles to San Francisco. He made it back by game time, entered the game as a replacement at third base in the sixth inning and went 1-for-2, singling in a run in the ninth inning.
Friday, February 15, 2019
Extending Polanco and Kepler
The Twins today are expected to announce multi-year deals with Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler:
Jose Ramirez and Kolten Wong each received somewhere in the $25M range. Jorge Polanco's deal should exceed that. It will buy out one pre-arbitration year, three arbitration season and cover up to three free agent seasons for the 25-year-old. @JesseSanchezMLB was on the news.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 14, 2019
Outfielder Max Kepler and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a five-year, $35 million deal with a sixth-year option, a league source tells ESPN. The option is for $10 million and includes a $1 million buyout.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 14, 2019
What strikes me about these reported lengths of contract is that the Twins are not just getting their arbitration seasons but eating free-agency seasons as well. That's unusual. The Twins have, with some frequency, bought out arbitration seasons. It has been rare that those deals have delayed free agency.
The union, or at least veteran players, has tended to discourage young players from doing that. "Bet on yourself" has been a common saying. Buying out arbitration years is one thing -- arbitration contracts aren't guaranteed -- but giving up years of free agency is another.
But both Polanco and Kepler are doing so. With the options, both could be surrendering their first two free agent seasons. And both could be well into their 30s by the time they get to test the market.
This is, I think, evidence of the profound change in free agency the past two winters. Kepler (who was a Super Two arbitration-eligible player this winter) and Polanco (still pre-arbitration) are high-floor players in their mid-20s. There's still time for some growth for both, but neither is likely to turn into a perennial All-Star or an MVP candidate.
These deals may limit the high-end of their future earnings, but they emphatically raise the floor of what they would get in their 20s. And the direction of the free agent market hasn't been kind to free agents turning 30. Kepler and Polanco are getting what they can now.
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Where they stand: Shortstop
Presumed regular: Jorge Polanco
Others on the 40-man roster: Ehire Adrianza, Ronald Torreyes, Nick Gordon
Nonroster notables: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier
The signing of Jonathan Schoop put to rest the notion that Polanco would move to second base. I am of the belief that Polanco is stretched to play shortstop, and I thought that the ouster of Paul Molitor as manager removed the organization's biggest advocate of playing Polanco at short.
And maybe Polanco will eventually wind up at second. Schoop is on a one-year deal, and Lewis is charging up the organizational ladder, and even if the Twins step up their reliance on shifts to mask a lack of range in the infield they may well conclude at some point that they have to sacrifice some offense in the middle infield to help the pitching staff.
For now, however, "Hip-Hip Jorge" is the shortstop, and probably their most reliable on-base guy as they enter the post-Mauer era. Polanco isn't a notable base stealer, but he might be their best bet to hit leadoff.
He also isn't a notable long ball threat, but he's had (very slightly) more plate appearances as the No. 3 hitter than anywhere else in the lineup in his brief major league career, and he hit third a lot in the minors.
Polanco perpetually feels to me like a round peg in a square hole. He doesn't really fit at shortstop. but this will be the third straight season in which he's the Twins best option for the position. He isn't a classic leadoff or No. 3 hitter, but he is probably going to lock down one of those two crucial lineup slots this year. He'll certainly hit in one of the first three slots in the batting order.
It's entirely possible that I will spend his entire Twins career grumbling about him being misused. And I probably shouldn't. He may not be a perfect fit, but he certainly makes the team better.
Others on the 40-man roster: Ehire Adrianza, Ronald Torreyes, Nick Gordon
Nonroster notables: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier
The signing of Jonathan Schoop put to rest the notion that Polanco would move to second base. I am of the belief that Polanco is stretched to play shortstop, and I thought that the ouster of Paul Molitor as manager removed the organization's biggest advocate of playing Polanco at short.
And maybe Polanco will eventually wind up at second. Schoop is on a one-year deal, and Lewis is charging up the organizational ladder, and even if the Twins step up their reliance on shifts to mask a lack of range in the infield they may well conclude at some point that they have to sacrifice some offense in the middle infield to help the pitching staff.
For now, however, "Hip-Hip Jorge" is the shortstop, and probably their most reliable on-base guy as they enter the post-Mauer era. Polanco isn't a notable base stealer, but he might be their best bet to hit leadoff.
He also isn't a notable long ball threat, but he's had (very slightly) more plate appearances as the No. 3 hitter than anywhere else in the lineup in his brief major league career, and he hit third a lot in the minors.
Polanco perpetually feels to me like a round peg in a square hole. He doesn't really fit at shortstop. but this will be the third straight season in which he's the Twins best option for the position. He isn't a classic leadoff or No. 3 hitter, but he is probably going to lock down one of those two crucial lineup slots this year. He'll certainly hit in one of the first three slots in the batting order.
It's entirely possible that I will spend his entire Twins career grumbling about him being misused. And I probably shouldn't. He may not be a perfect fit, but he certainly makes the team better.
Friday, September 14, 2018
A pinball bumper at shortstop
Jorge Polanco pulled off a rarity Thursday night -- a three-base error at shortstop. Yet another groundball that richocheted off him. Later in the game he mishandled a throw from catcher Chris Gimenez; that error was wrongly charged to Gimenez.
Earlier in the day, on my every-other-week radio spot on KMSU, I pulled out my pinball bumper metaphor to describe Polanco's shortstop play and got some laughs from the other two. But it can't be a laughing matter to the Twins decision makers. Polanco has been charged with 12 errors in 62 games at shortstop -- his season, of course, halved by his steroid suspension -- and deserves at least one more.
It was common in the 1960s for even good shortstops to commit 30 errors in a season, but no more. That's an atrocious rate for a shortstop in 2018.
The Twins right now have Logan Forsythe as their regular second baseman. He's to become a free agent after the season. The Twins could plug that hole by moving Polanco to second base, the position the minor league staff thought a better fit for him. But moving Polanco to second opens up shortstop, and that's a more difficult position to fill.
Nick Gordon, theoretically the shortstop in waiting after being the fifth overall draft pick in 2014, didn't get a callup this month after hitting .212/.262/.283 in Triple A. I've been skeptical for some time of Gordon's ability to be a major league regular; 2018 did nothing to change that opinion.
Paul Molitor appeared a few years ago to be the organization's biggest advocate for playing Polanco at shortstop, and as the manager he has the final call. But even Molitor must realize that Polanco needs to be better at picking up groundballs than he has been.
Earlier in the day, on my every-other-week radio spot on KMSU, I pulled out my pinball bumper metaphor to describe Polanco's shortstop play and got some laughs from the other two. But it can't be a laughing matter to the Twins decision makers. Polanco has been charged with 12 errors in 62 games at shortstop -- his season, of course, halved by his steroid suspension -- and deserves at least one more.
It was common in the 1960s for even good shortstops to commit 30 errors in a season, but no more. That's an atrocious rate for a shortstop in 2018.
The Twins right now have Logan Forsythe as their regular second baseman. He's to become a free agent after the season. The Twins could plug that hole by moving Polanco to second base, the position the minor league staff thought a better fit for him. But moving Polanco to second opens up shortstop, and that's a more difficult position to fill.
Nick Gordon, theoretically the shortstop in waiting after being the fifth overall draft pick in 2014, didn't get a callup this month after hitting .212/.262/.283 in Triple A. I've been skeptical for some time of Gordon's ability to be a major league regular; 2018 did nothing to change that opinion.
Paul Molitor appeared a few years ago to be the organization's biggest advocate for playing Polanco at shortstop, and as the manager he has the final call. But even Molitor must realize that Polanco needs to be better at picking up groundballs than he has been.
Tuesday, September 4, 2018
The error-prone Jorge Polanco
This tweet grated on me more than it should have:
Gibson has retired eight straight since Gurriel's homer. He's paid the price for two crummy pitches so far.— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) September 3, 2018
Keuchel out, McHugh in for Astros
What grated was the "two crummy pitches" line. Yeah, Kyle Gibson served up a pair of gopher balls. That accounted for two of the four runs he allowed. The other two came in large part because Jorge Polanco booted a (judging from the radio play-by-play as I did some yardwork before the rain hit) likely double-play ball. Gibby paid the price not only for the homers but for having a subpar shortstop.
There's a long-standing adage, which I think is credited to Paul Richards but may well predate him: More baseball games are lost than won. Meaning that the team that makes the fewest mistakes -- physical errors, mental errors, tactical errors -- comes up on top.
This, I think, accounts for the remarkable second half of the season for Cedar Rapids in the Midwest League, which as a low-A circuit is more prone to what-are-they-doing moments than the majors. The Kernels lost a lot of top-shelf talent after the first half as Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brustar Gaterol were promoted, and have compiled a better record after they left.
They aren't bereft of talent now -- the Twins' top two draft picks from June's draft are on their roster -- but they really benefit from their new middle infield, a pair of June draftees who played for major programs. Shortstop Michael Davis and second baseman Michael Helman aren't as highly regarded as predecessors Lewis and Jose Miranda, but they are older, more mature and more reliable. In the two games I watched last week in Cedar Rapids, Davis and Helman turned four double plays and didn't miss a makable play. The same could not be said of the infielders for the opponents.
This year's Twins team has been given to baserunning gaffes, unmade plays and general sloppiness. Polanco has been charged with 10 errors already, and remember, he lost half the season to suspension. Errors are an exceedingly blunt tool for evaluating defense, of course, but 10 errors in 52 games -- that's a lot for a major league shortstop in 2018.
I like Polanco -- as a second baseman. Paul Molitor has been determined to find a shortstop in him. Last year it appeared that Molitor might be right about Polanco. This year, not so much.
Monday, March 19, 2018
Polanco's suspension
You probably heard by now: Jorge Polanco, the Twins shortstop, got hit Sunday with an 80-game steroid suspension. Not only will he miss the first half of the season, he's ineligible for the playoffs should the Twins get that far.
It's the second time in four years that Twins are coming out of spring training with a significant player suspended for testing positive for the steroid Stanozolol. In 2015, it was Ervin Santana.
There's nothing good in this suspension for the Twins. Polanco may not be the best defensive shortstop in camp, but he finished his roller-coaster 2017 as the Twins' No. 3 hitter.
But if there is a position at which the Twins have the depth to absorb losing their starter for half the season, it's shortstop. Presumably they can divvy up the job among Eduardo Escobar, who hit 21 homers lsst season; Ehire Adrianza, a superior gloveman; and veteran Erick Aybar, a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner whose career is on the wane.
But the possible (likely?) suspension of Miguel Sano in a #MeToo investigation complicates that. That trio may have to cover for two infield regulars, not just one.
It's the second time in four years that Twins are coming out of spring training with a significant player suspended for testing positive for the steroid Stanozolol. In 2015, it was Ervin Santana.
There's nothing good in this suspension for the Twins. Polanco may not be the best defensive shortstop in camp, but he finished his roller-coaster 2017 as the Twins' No. 3 hitter.
But if there is a position at which the Twins have the depth to absorb losing their starter for half the season, it's shortstop. Presumably they can divvy up the job among Eduardo Escobar, who hit 21 homers lsst season; Ehire Adrianza, a superior gloveman; and veteran Erick Aybar, a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner whose career is on the wane.
But the possible (likely?) suspension of Miguel Sano in a #MeToo investigation complicates that. That trio may have to cover for two infield regulars, not just one.
Friday, November 24, 2017
From the Handbook: Defensive Statistics
This section of the Bill James Handbook has changed considerably over the years as defensive metrics have been devised, tested and improved.
The Twins player I was most interested in checking out here is Jorge Polanco, the regular shortstop who I believe is stretched at the position.
What these stats say is: He's not great, but he gets the job done.
He's at zero in "bases saved" and -1 in "runs saved," which adds up, essentially, to: He's an average shortstop. Which, if he's capable of being a productive middle-of-the-order bat -- and he hit third regularly down the stretch -- is quite acceptable.
It's worth noting, however, that 14 of the 24 shortstops listed as "regulars" at the position were better in the metrics. He's average compared to the entire set of shortstop innings, but less adept than most the guys who play most of the innings. As one might imagine for a key defensive position, the scrubs bring the average down -- and Polanco is good enough to be better than them.
Eduardo Escobar, in about an eighth of Polancos innings at short, is -2 in runs saved, and Ehrie Adrianza is +1 in about a quarter of Polanco's innings at short. That Adrianza is the best of the trio with the glove sounds right. I'm not convinced that Polanco's better than Escobar, but I'm not sure the difference matters much in either direction.
The Twins player I was most interested in checking out here is Jorge Polanco, the regular shortstop who I believe is stretched at the position.
What these stats say is: He's not great, but he gets the job done.
He's at zero in "bases saved" and -1 in "runs saved," which adds up, essentially, to: He's an average shortstop. Which, if he's capable of being a productive middle-of-the-order bat -- and he hit third regularly down the stretch -- is quite acceptable.
It's worth noting, however, that 14 of the 24 shortstops listed as "regulars" at the position were better in the metrics. He's average compared to the entire set of shortstop innings, but less adept than most the guys who play most of the innings. As one might imagine for a key defensive position, the scrubs bring the average down -- and Polanco is good enough to be better than them.
Eduardo Escobar, in about an eighth of Polancos innings at short, is -2 in runs saved, and Ehrie Adrianza is +1 in about a quarter of Polanco's innings at short. That Adrianza is the best of the trio with the glove sounds right. I'm not convinced that Polanco's better than Escobar, but I'm not sure the difference matters much in either direction.
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
Contemplating Jorge Polanco
It has been quite the turnaround for Jorge Polanco.
The Twins shortstop homered twice Tuesday night, once from each side of the plate. He has nine homers on the season, six of them since Aug. 20.
He was 4-for-July, and two of those hits came in the first game of the month; after that, he was 2-for-47 for the month, a .043 batting average. It would be impossible for any shortstop to make up for such a lack of hitting with his glove, and Polanco isn't an Ozzie Smith afield. His playing time dwindled as Paul Molitor began rotating Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianaza at short.
Then the calendar switched. Polanco got a hit on Aug. 2, and that began a 10-game hitting streak. When that ended, he started an eight-game streak that included four straight games with home runs.
Molitor isn't rotating shortstops anymore. Not only is Polanco in the lineup daily, he's starting to appear in the middle of the order with some frequency. (And with Miguel Sano sidelined, one of the reserve infielders has to play third base anyway.)
The defensive metrics are split on Polanco at this point. Per Baseball Reference this morning, Polanco is well below average by Total Zone, exactly average by Defensive Runs Saved. That will work when his OPS is over 1.000, as it has been in August. But I think it remains a fair assessment that he's a second baseman stretched to play shortstop.
I am quite certain the Twins have better defensive shortstops working their way up the ladder. I am not so certain they will hit as well as Polanco. Polanco's midseason slump defied everything he'd done in his young professional career; he's hit at every level.
The front office will doubtless grapple with the middle infield questions this offseason. Do they trade one of the Polanco-Brian Dozier duo to clear room for a fresh shortstop, or wait? But that is a debate for later. They are going to ride this horse the rest of the season. Dozier and Polanco are not the greatest defensive middle infield in the league, but they can hit.
The Twins shortstop homered twice Tuesday night, once from each side of the plate. He has nine homers on the season, six of them since Aug. 20.
He was 4-for-July, and two of those hits came in the first game of the month; after that, he was 2-for-47 for the month, a .043 batting average. It would be impossible for any shortstop to make up for such a lack of hitting with his glove, and Polanco isn't an Ozzie Smith afield. His playing time dwindled as Paul Molitor began rotating Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianaza at short.
Then the calendar switched. Polanco got a hit on Aug. 2, and that began a 10-game hitting streak. When that ended, he started an eight-game streak that included four straight games with home runs.
Molitor isn't rotating shortstops anymore. Not only is Polanco in the lineup daily, he's starting to appear in the middle of the order with some frequency. (And with Miguel Sano sidelined, one of the reserve infielders has to play third base anyway.)
The defensive metrics are split on Polanco at this point. Per Baseball Reference this morning, Polanco is well below average by Total Zone, exactly average by Defensive Runs Saved. That will work when his OPS is over 1.000, as it has been in August. But I think it remains a fair assessment that he's a second baseman stretched to play shortstop.
I am quite certain the Twins have better defensive shortstops working their way up the ladder. I am not so certain they will hit as well as Polanco. Polanco's midseason slump defied everything he'd done in his young professional career; he's hit at every level.
The front office will doubtless grapple with the middle infield questions this offseason. Do they trade one of the Polanco-Brian Dozier duo to clear room for a fresh shortstop, or wait? But that is a debate for later. They are going to ride this horse the rest of the season. Dozier and Polanco are not the greatest defensive middle infield in the league, but they can hit.
Saturday, July 15, 2017
Contemplating Jorge Polanco
There isn't a lot of reason to praise Jose Berrios' pitching Friday night in Houston -- more than half his pitches missed the strike zone -- but the fact remains that five of the seven runs he allowed were unearned because of an error by Jorge Polanco.
Polanco's defense has deteriorated sharply since this post in late May, which quotes the founder of Baseball Info Systems as saying that Polanco had saved five runs with his defense to that point. Well, that same metric, available on Baseball Reference, now shows Polanco as having given back four of those five runs -- and as of this writing, that's not updated with Thursday's game.
My expectations for Polanco's defense at shortstop were not high coming into the season. I would have been pleased on Opening Day with league-average defense from him, and to this point that's close to what the Twins have received. But I also expected him to be a much more productive hitter than he's been. His OPS, .591, is even worse than that of Byron Buxton (.603), and he's 3-for-35 so far this month.
Deteriorating fielding, deteriorating hitting. That's not a good combination, especially with two other shortstops, Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianza, on the roster.
Polanco's defense has deteriorated sharply since this post in late May, which quotes the founder of Baseball Info Systems as saying that Polanco had saved five runs with his defense to that point. Well, that same metric, available on Baseball Reference, now shows Polanco as having given back four of those five runs -- and as of this writing, that's not updated with Thursday's game.
My expectations for Polanco's defense at shortstop were not high coming into the season. I would have been pleased on Opening Day with league-average defense from him, and to this point that's close to what the Twins have received. But I also expected him to be a much more productive hitter than he's been. His OPS, .591, is even worse than that of Byron Buxton (.603), and he's 3-for-35 so far this month.
Deteriorating fielding, deteriorating hitting. That's not a good combination, especially with two other shortstops, Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianza, on the roster.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
Jorge Polanco, shortstop
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| Jorge Polanco is one ot three Twins in the top 10 in defensive WAR in the AL as calculated by Baseball Reference. |
And yet Paul Molitor persisted. He saw a major league shortstop in Polanco where almost nobody else did. And so far this season he has been vindicated.
On Tuesday John Dewan, founder of Baseball Info Systems, posted this piece on the Twins fielding improvement this year.
After a rough start to his defensive career as a rookie in 2016, Jorge Polanco has been looking very comfortable at shortstop so far this season, saving the team five runs. In particular, Polanco has shined with his throwing arm, making seven plays above average in the hole between shortstop and third base.As if to underline that second sentence, Polanco made two such plays in the ninth inning Tuesday night in the Twins shutout win over Baltimore.
Polanco has not hit quite as well as I expected (which doesn't mean he won't). He has been far better afield than I could have imagined. When you look for reasons the Twins are so much better this year compared to last, Polanco the shortstop is high on the list.
Thursday, February 23, 2017
Molitor's misplaced notion on Polanco
Paul Molitor once again this weekend aired his discontent with the handling last season of Jorge Polanco -- specifically that the young infielder played not an inning of shortstop at Triple A.
The implication is that Polanco's play at the position when he was called up was damaged by rust. Nonsense. His shortstop play was poor because he lacks the tools to be even an average major league shortstop.
Polanco has, according to Baseball Reference, played more than 3,348 professional innings at shortstop, more than 2,145 innings at second base. He was essentially a full time shortstop in 2014 and 2015 -- and he wasn't any better a shortstop at the end of 2015 than he was at the beginning of 2014. Two or three more months at shortstop wasn't going to change that.
I doubt that Molitor is delusional enough to believe otherwise.
Earl Weaver was famously the sole believer in 1982 that Cal Ripken Jr. was a shortstop. But Ripken -- who had played third base in the high minors and for a half season in Baltimore -- took to the position immediately. He never resembled a pinball bumper out there as Polanco has.
The implication is that Polanco's play at the position when he was called up was damaged by rust. Nonsense. His shortstop play was poor because he lacks the tools to be even an average major league shortstop.
Polanco has, according to Baseball Reference, played more than 3,348 professional innings at shortstop, more than 2,145 innings at second base. He was essentially a full time shortstop in 2014 and 2015 -- and he wasn't any better a shortstop at the end of 2015 than he was at the beginning of 2014. Two or three more months at shortstop wasn't going to change that.
I doubt that Molitor is delusional enough to believe otherwise.
Earl Weaver was famously the sole believer in 1982 that Cal Ripken Jr. was a shortstop. But Ripken -- who had played third base in the high minors and for a half season in Baltimore -- took to the position immediately. He never resembled a pinball bumper out there as Polanco has.
Thursday, February 2, 2017
Whither Jorge Polanco
I am trying to reconcile myself to the likelihood that the Twins will at least open the 2017 season with Jorge Polanco at shortstop. It's not easy.
Only part of this is their inability to find a reasonable trade for Brian Dozier. Trading Dozier would have opened up second base for Polanco, and second base is a better fit for Polanco's skill set than shortstop (just as it was and remains for Dozier).
But the fact remains that, unless a Dozier trade included a major league-ready shortstop -- and that was always unlikely -- somebody currently on the roster figured to wind up with the shortstop job. If either of Dozier or Polanco were (or are) traded, the front-runner would be Eduardo Escobar by default.
I'm pretty sure I like that option more than Paul Molitor does, and I say that fully aware that Escobar is at best a fringe average fielder at the position. Polanco is worse afield, which is no small matter given the looming and lumbering presence of Miguel Sano at third and the need to support the pitching staff.
But Polanco promises to be a superior hitter to the man LaVelle Neal dubbed "Eddie the Stick" a few years ago, and we return to the metaphorical balancing act: Will Escobar's glove save more runs (compared to Polanco) than his bat will give up (compared to Polanco)? My guess is yes, but I can't prove it, and neither is ever likely to be the shortstop of a playoff caliber team.
This is not to equate Polanco and Derek Jeter, but the fact remains: Jeter was never, by the defensive metrics, a truly outstanding defensive shortstop. He got by at the position, and his bat made him a great player, and there is no shortstop of my lifetime I'd rather have for the length of his career than Jeter -- not Cal Ripken, not Ozzie Smith, not Barry Larkin, not Robin Yount or even Alex Rodriguez.
It's possible for Polanco to be a good enough hitter to make up for his problems afield. But for that to happen, he's not only got to hit; he's got to get closer to fringe average as a fielder. If he were as good with the glove as Escobar (which, again, is not to say that Escobar is good), I'd have no problem with Polanco as the Twins shortstop.
He's not, or at least he hasn't shown that he is. Molitor appears to believe that he can be.
Only part of this is their inability to find a reasonable trade for Brian Dozier. Trading Dozier would have opened up second base for Polanco, and second base is a better fit for Polanco's skill set than shortstop (just as it was and remains for Dozier).
But the fact remains that, unless a Dozier trade included a major league-ready shortstop -- and that was always unlikely -- somebody currently on the roster figured to wind up with the shortstop job. If either of Dozier or Polanco were (or are) traded, the front-runner would be Eduardo Escobar by default.
I'm pretty sure I like that option more than Paul Molitor does, and I say that fully aware that Escobar is at best a fringe average fielder at the position. Polanco is worse afield, which is no small matter given the looming and lumbering presence of Miguel Sano at third and the need to support the pitching staff.
But Polanco promises to be a superior hitter to the man LaVelle Neal dubbed "Eddie the Stick" a few years ago, and we return to the metaphorical balancing act: Will Escobar's glove save more runs (compared to Polanco) than his bat will give up (compared to Polanco)? My guess is yes, but I can't prove it, and neither is ever likely to be the shortstop of a playoff caliber team.
This is not to equate Polanco and Derek Jeter, but the fact remains: Jeter was never, by the defensive metrics, a truly outstanding defensive shortstop. He got by at the position, and his bat made him a great player, and there is no shortstop of my lifetime I'd rather have for the length of his career than Jeter -- not Cal Ripken, not Ozzie Smith, not Barry Larkin, not Robin Yount or even Alex Rodriguez.
It's possible for Polanco to be a good enough hitter to make up for his problems afield. But for that to happen, he's not only got to hit; he's got to get closer to fringe average as a fielder. If he were as good with the glove as Escobar (which, again, is not to say that Escobar is good), I'd have no problem with Polanco as the Twins shortstop.
He's not, or at least he hasn't shown that he is. Molitor appears to believe that he can be.
Monday, August 22, 2016
The hidden problem
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| Jorge Polanco fails to handle a "base hit" off the bat of Lorenzo Cain with two outs in the sixth inning Sunday. The next batter doubled Cain home for what proved to be the winning run. |
One of my pet theories about "intelligent fandom" is that the broadcasters reflect the thinking of the organization. Dick Bremer, Bert Blyleven, Cory Provus, Dan Gladden -- these guys are not only around the team (as are the beat writers), they hold their jobs at the mercy of the team (unlike the beat writers). When Billy Beane was in the process of imposing the use of advanced stats on the Oakland A's almost 20 years ago, their TV broadcasts rather quickly ditched the traditional "triple crown stats" on their graphics to show on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
So when Bremer spends much of his airtime bewailing the Twins starting pitching while barely acknowledging the flawed fielding, the presumption here is that he's reflecting the thinking of the manager and coaches.
There's really not much good to say about the Twins starting pitching in three of those four games in Kansas City. Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios and Hector Santiago all had short starts, and that strains the already strained bullpen.
But defense is the hidden problem. The Kansas City Star on Friday described a pair of plays by Minnesota outfielders Eddie Rosario and Robbie Grossman on Thursday as "two of the worst defensive plays of the year." The video-laden breakdown linked to above concluded:
According to FanGraphs, the Twins’ defense has a negative-25.3 runs saved, the second-worst in the American League.Yeah.
Sunday's final, and decisive, run was handed to Kansas City by the Twins fielding, specifically the shortstop play of Jorge Polanco. As has been noted here, the heavy use of Polanco at short in recent weeks directly contradicts the obvious conclusion drawn by the farm system, which devoted more than two seasons to playing him at shortstop and decided he's not a shortstop.
Polanco, as depicted above, failed to come up with a grounder in the sixth inning. Blyleven and Bremer were still questioning the scoring call when Eric Hosmer doubled over Rosario's head (might Byron Buxton have reached that ball?) to score Cain from first base -- and suddenly the TV talk went from a missed out to a pair of two-out hits.
I say this a lot: The easiest way to improve the pitching staff is to improve the defense. That we don't hear that from the broadcasters suggests that they aren't hearing that from the organization.
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
Jorge Polanco, shortstop
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| Hip, hip, Jorge: Polanco makes a play in the sixth inning Monday night. |
Molitor on Polanco: "Maybe one of the better games I’ve ever seen him play short. He was clean, finished, threw with confidence."#MNTwins— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) August 9, 2016
OK, but how many games has Molitor seen Polanco play at short? Yeah, Molitor was a roving instructor in the organization for years, but he wasn't going to Rochester or Chattanooga or Fort Myers in 2015 or 2014, when Polanco was primarily playing shortstop. In 2013 he split time between short and second. This year Polanco has played zero shortstop in Rochester and three games at short with the Twins. Now, Molitor has likely seen video, and he's seen quite a bit of Polanco in spring training.
The rap on Polanco as a shortstop has been arm strength. Errors are, as I've said about other players (Miguel Sano), are a blunt tool for measuring defense, but Polanco had 30 of them last year playing short at three levels (Double A Chattanooga, Triple A Rochester and the Twins) and 35 in 2014. Those numbers wouldn't have raised eyebrows a half century ago, but they won't work for a shortstop today.
Polanco on Monday made strong throws on balls hit to his glove side and on balls he had to charge. He did not have to make a play going to his right, the hole between third and short. That's the test for a shortstop's arm, the long throw after fielding a ball going away from the target.
I've not had any concerns about Polanco as a hitter. Monday's game, strong as it was, does not convince me that he's a major league quality shortstop.
Friday, July 29, 2016
The Nunez trade
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| Eduardo Nunez just gained 20.5 games in the standings going from the Twins to the first-place Giants. |
Mejia is 23. Baseball America lists him as No. 91 in its midseason prospect ranking, No. 5 in the Giants organization. That's a pretty decent return for a 30-year-old whose breakthrough season seemed to be decaying even as the Twins shopped him around.
Mejia is, right now, rotation depth. He projects, apparently, as a back-of-the-rotation guy, and there's genuine value in that. He may or may not be in the majors by September (he opened 2016 in Double A), but he might be. If nothing else, he further frees up Antony to deal one or more of the current major league starters.
Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco is getting called up to take Nunez' roster spot. I'd like to see him get regular playing time, but ... he's been playing second base in Rochester, and that makes sense because that's his best position, and that's Brian Dozier's spot. The only game Polanco's played at short in 2016, it appears, was with the Twins. We'll see what the Twins have in mind for Polanco, but I suspect that trading Nunez mainly opens up playing time for Eduardo Escobar.
The Giants, whose lead over the Dodgers in the NL West has slid to two games, just brought second baseman Joe Panik off the disabled list, but third baseman Matt Duffy is still on the shelf. The plan is for Nunez to fill in for Duffy until his return, then be a utility man.
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Notes, quotes and comment
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| John Ryan Murphy has had trouble stopping pitches. |
Sano's problems were expected. Murphy's, less so. Santana was charged with two wild pitches Tuesday, Ryan O'Rourke one, and Murphy was charged with a passed ball. That's four pitches that got away in one game -- and seven in six games caught for Murphy, a truly awful rate.
I predicted earlier that Murphy would eventually take the starting job away from Kurt Suzuki. So far he has neither hit nor caught well enough to push the veteran.
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Trevor Plouffe was put on the disabled list Tuesday and Jorge Polanco called up. As with Max Kepler, it may not be ideal to have a top prospect sitting on the major league bench, but the Twins don't have an opening on the 40-man roster and aren't going to lop someone to make a temporary move.
As matters stand, Polanco's future with the Twins may be as a utility guy anyway. I don't believe he has the arm for the left side of the infield, and Brian Dozier is rather locked in at second base.
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Adventures in Baseball Reference sponsorships time: I picked up Byung Ho Park's page about five minutes after his homer into the center field bar on Saturday. Park Bang, baby!
Monday, February 22, 2016
Jorge Polanco and the wave of young shortstops
I posted the other day about Jorge Polanco's uncertain future with the Twins.
Baseball America lists him as the 99th best prospect in the game. The precise ranking is basically immaterial, of course; the point is, he's a legitimate major league talent.
But as the J.J. Cooper tweets I included with that post suggest, there are plenty of superior shortstop candidates in the minors today. BA's list contains four shortstops in the top nine: Corey Seager of the Dodgers (1), J.P. Crawford of the Phillies (6), Orlando Arcia of the Brewers (8) and Trea Turner of the Nationals (8), Nick Gordon, the Twins' first-round pick in 2014 who had a solid season in low A, is No. 53 on the BA list; I counted 13 shortstops ranked ahead of him. Between Gordon and Polanco, BA lists four more.
And last year was noteworthy for the sheer bulk of superb rookie shortstops -- Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell. Xavier Bogaerts of the Red Sox is entering his fourth major league season and is all of 23.
The point being, the game is awash today in young shortstops. Not all of them will stick at shortstop, of course; I don't really expect Polanco to either. But that's the pool of talent he's competing with to get a major league job, whether at short or second or even third base. And with that many competitors of similar age who can reasonably be regarded as superior or equal to him, his trade value may not be a high as we tend to believe.
Baseball America lists him as the 99th best prospect in the game. The precise ranking is basically immaterial, of course; the point is, he's a legitimate major league talent.
But as the J.J. Cooper tweets I included with that post suggest, there are plenty of superior shortstop candidates in the minors today. BA's list contains four shortstops in the top nine: Corey Seager of the Dodgers (1), J.P. Crawford of the Phillies (6), Orlando Arcia of the Brewers (8) and Trea Turner of the Nationals (8), Nick Gordon, the Twins' first-round pick in 2014 who had a solid season in low A, is No. 53 on the BA list; I counted 13 shortstops ranked ahead of him. Between Gordon and Polanco, BA lists four more.
And last year was noteworthy for the sheer bulk of superb rookie shortstops -- Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Addison Russell. Xavier Bogaerts of the Red Sox is entering his fourth major league season and is all of 23.
The point being, the game is awash today in young shortstops. Not all of them will stick at shortstop, of course; I don't really expect Polanco to either. But that's the pool of talent he's competing with to get a major league job, whether at short or second or even third base. And with that many competitors of similar age who can reasonably be regarded as superior or equal to him, his trade value may not be a high as we tend to believe.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
From the Prospect Handbook: Jorge Polanco
A pair of tweets yesterday from Baseball America's J.J. Cooper:
Which seems relevant when considering Jorge Polanco, rated by BA as the Twins' No. 6 prospect. Polanco has played primarily shortstop the past two years, but the general consensus is that his arm is a bit weak for the position. Second base is his best spot, but the Twins gave Brian Dozier a multi-year deal, so that spot is blocked.
Polanco's bat is major-league ready, but there's no place to put him. He has one option left, and unless somebody gets hurt in camp he's destined for Rochester, presumably to again do battle with a position for which he's an ill fit.
Third base might be an option, but if arm strength is an issue at short, it's an issue at third. (Dozier, it should be remembered, is a second baseman today because he doesn't have a true shortstop's arm either.) And Trevor Plouffe doesn't become a free agent for two years, so opening third for Polanco would require a trade, and there's no reason to believe the Twins are interested in dealing Plouffe.
But somebody's going to get traded someday. Polanco is too talented a prospect to languish indefinitely in the minors, and even if he's blocked for 2016, something will have to happen for 2017.
Working on position rankings reminds me how thin the minors is at 3B right now. It's nearly barren.— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) February 17, 2016
Also amazes me how deep the SS position is. Yes, a lot of 'em will move, but I'd take the 60th best SS in MILB over the 20th best 3B.— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) February 17, 2016
Which seems relevant when considering Jorge Polanco, rated by BA as the Twins' No. 6 prospect. Polanco has played primarily shortstop the past two years, but the general consensus is that his arm is a bit weak for the position. Second base is his best spot, but the Twins gave Brian Dozier a multi-year deal, so that spot is blocked.
Polanco's bat is major-league ready, but there's no place to put him. He has one option left, and unless somebody gets hurt in camp he's destined for Rochester, presumably to again do battle with a position for which he's an ill fit.
Third base might be an option, but if arm strength is an issue at short, it's an issue at third. (Dozier, it should be remembered, is a second baseman today because he doesn't have a true shortstop's arm either.) And Trevor Plouffe doesn't become a free agent for two years, so opening third for Polanco would require a trade, and there's no reason to believe the Twins are interested in dealing Plouffe.
But somebody's going to get traded someday. Polanco is too talented a prospect to languish indefinitely in the minors, and even if he's blocked for 2016, something will have to happen for 2017.
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