Setting the stage for Rule 5

Friday was the deadline for teams to protect their current minor leaguers from the Rule 5 draft by putting them on the 40-man major league roster. The Twins elevated seven prospects -- and lost two players with some major league time, catcher Josmil Pinto and right-hander A.J. Achter, on waivers, Pinto to the Padres and Achter to the Phillies.

I'll probably write something in more detail about the Pinto move next week. Achter is a marginal reliever who had another good season in Triple A last year -- he has a 2.69 ERA in 99 Triple A appearances -- who might be able to wander into a decent major league season if given a chance, but lacks the dominant pitch to force a career. Good luck to both of them.

The seven additions include several pitchers who emphatically have that dominant pitch. I see four categories in the seven:

Hard-throwing right-handed relievers: J.T. Chargois and Yorman Landa.

Left-handed Triple A starters: Pat Dean and Taylor Rogers.

Left-handers with Tommy John surgery: Mason Melotakis and Randy Rosario.

Outfielder: Adam Brett Walker.

Landa and Rosario spent 2015 at low A Cedar Rapids, and I saw both pitch during my handful of Kernels games last August, Rosario as a starter and Landa as a reliever. I didn't write about Landa, but he did show some serious velocity; I wrote instead about Luke Bard, who wasn't put on the 40 and is eligible for Rule 5. Anyway -- while Landa and Rosario will be in major league camp, I don't think the Twins will elevate either to the majors this year.

Dean and Rogers are slightly surprising protects to me. I don't see either as a particularly likely candidate to ever be starters for the Twins. There are certainly a lot of rotation guys ahead of them.

Walker's protection illustrates the importance of the power tool. ABW has serious power -- and, like Oswaldo Arcia, little else to recommend him. I'm not particularly enthused about Walker's chances.

Melotakis missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery while Chargois returned from two years on the shelf. These two guys each have pitched in Double A and have realistic chances to be part of the reconstructed 2016 bullpen, although I doubt the Twins would graduate Melotakis in particular to the majors out of spring training.

The Twins now have 38 player on their 40-man roster. One of the open slots is slated for Byung Ho Park; the other may well go to a Rule 5 selection.

No Berrios, at least for now

The first wave of September callups were notified Monday in Rochester after the Red Wings' game, and they are guys we've seen before. Kenny Vargas. Danny Santana. Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter. Eric Fryer.

Not included was Jose Berrios, who started Monday for the Wings. This spurred some consternation on my Twitter feed Monday night, but I can't see any reason to be riled up about it.

Realistically, they aren't calling up a 21-year-old who is already well above his previous high in innings to displace a (healthy) veteran in the rotation in a playoff push. It doesn't make sense in developing Berrios, and the risk outweighs the rewards. (Tyler Duffey is not a veteran, but the Twins obviously think he's ahead of Berrios.) Nor is there a immediate need for Berrios in the bullpen. The late inning guys are doing well, and there's little immediate payoff in long relief.

And even if the Twins do have a role for Berrios, hes not going to pitch for at least four days anyway.

Two other Rochester players whose absence is notable but not surprising: Oswaldo Arcia and Alex Meyer. Neither earned it.

As for the guys who did get the callup, none (my opinions) should be major pieces in the stretch run. Santana put up good numbers for Rochester as a hitter, but he was also charged with a pair of errors Monday. The Twins were pretty consistent in Santana's previous stints with the big club this year -- if he was here, he was the No. 1 shortstop. I hope they stick with Eduardo Escobar now, but I won't guarantee it.

Vargas and Fryer will make it easier to pinch hit for a catcher. Vargas to pinch hit, Fryer for catching depth. Tonkin and Achter will eat meaningless innings.

The Twins do have a move yet to make, because Fryer is not on the 40-man roster and the roster is full. So somebody has to come off. I wouldn't be surprised if they move J.R. Graham to the 60-day DL and end his season

The September call-ups

Doug Bernier, who
spent half the 2013
season with the Twins,
was named MVP of
the 2014 Red Wings.

The Twins on Monday morning announced eight callups for the expanded September roster, names familiar and otherwise: A.J. Achter, Doug Bernier, Logan Darnell, Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Lester Oliveros, Josmil Pinto and Michael Tonkin. They were all with Triple A Rochester, which was eliminated Sunday from playoff contention, and will join the Twins today.

As surmised here earlier, three of them -- Achter, Bernier and Oliveros -- had to be added to the 40-man roster. Of the eight -- nine if you want to count Aaron Thompson, called up during the weekend -- only Achter has never appeared in the majors before.

This collection is heavy with minor league veterans and light on true prospects.The Twins did not call up anybody who is to be first-time eligible for the Rule 5 draft and thus likely to be added to the 40 early in the offseason. That would include Eddie Rosario, who didn't play well enough this year to be rewarded with a month of major league pay and perks but is too good a prospect to expose, and Alex Meyer, who went on the minor league disabled list during the weekend.

Lester Oliveros
will audition this
month for a bullpen
role next year.

The most interesting of the nine, as I look to 2015, are Hicks, Oliveros and Tonkin.

Hicks needs to have a strong September, as I see it. He's twice won jobs in spring training only to flop in the regular season, and I can't see a good reason for the Twins to let him do that a third time.

Oliveros and Tonkin are a pair of hard-throwing righties, either of whom might be a successor to Jared Burton (whose contract is expiring) in a set-up role next year. Oliveros, as you might recall, came to the Twins in the Delmon Young trade in 2011; he's had some injury issues and has returned from Tommy John surgery. (Achter might be put in this group, but his stuff is a notch behind the others.)

Chris Herrmann hit
.304 for Rochester
but just .143 with
the Twins.

Darnell and Thompson are showcasing themselves as potential replacements for Brian Duensing and Caleb Thielbar as lefty specialists.

Pinto and Herrmann ... I think their purpose is to lighten the load on Kurt Suzuki, who has taken a beating behind the plate in recent days. Theoretically either could push out Eric Fryer as the backup catcher in 2015, but Fryer is the superior receiver, and a reliable backstop seems to be Ron Gardenhire's preference in that role. (Assuming, of course, that Gardy is back next year.)

Herrmann would have a better chance at a backup job with a manager inclined to use the backup catcher in platoon situations -- meaning, to look to give Suzuki his days off against right-handed pitchers and fit the left-handed Herrmann in then. Gardenhire is not such a manager.

On using 40-man roster spots unnecessarily

Earlier this week I suggested that the Twins had elevated two players — Max Kepler and Kennys Vargas—to their 40-man roster prematurely. Neither player, I argued, was likely to be taken and retained by a rival organization via the Rule 5 draft.

So what? What are the consequences of protecting players who don't need to be protected?

The obvious immediate risk is that another player who lost out on a roster spot will be snagged by another team. I'm not particularly concerned about that possibility here.

The player (pitcher, actually) who is widely viewed as the first guy off the 40 is RHP A.J. Achter, a 25-year-old reliever who had a good 2013 split between Double A and Triple A despite a mediocre control record and then had a 5.25 ERA in 12 innings in the Arizona Fall League. If nobody grabbed Anthony Slama in all those years the Twins left him off the roster, there's not much risk that Achter's going.

The longer term problem is that the Twins have effectively burned their first options on Kepler and Vargas. They aren't making the major league roster this spring. So this tightens by a year the organization's flexibility with them.

Meanwhile, if — when — the Twins sign some free agents, they'll have to open spots on the 40. (They have one open spot now, and presumably they plan to make a pick in the Rule 5 draft; they almost always do.) They can't bounce the four newbies.  So somebody else — somebody who, at least in theory, has a better chance of playing in the majors in 2014 — will get the gate.

Arizona dreaming

Byron Buxton at the Futures Game.  The 19-year-old will
play in the Arizona Fall League this year.

Any news involving Byron Buxton gets my attention, and so the announcement Tuesday that he will be among the seven Twins farmhands playing for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League caught my attention.

The MLB.com piece on the league rosters leads with Buxton, the consensus top prospect in the game. It also deems the AFL to be at a level between Double A and Triple A.

If so, that means Buxton, currently ripping it up in high A ball, is again being challenged -- which figures. He should be on the fast track.

But if he's being challenged with this assignment, what about Max Kepler, who missed the first half of the season with injury and has been somewhat less than dominant in low A? He too is going to the AFL. He's a good prospect, and he has some time to make up, but this is much faster company than he's used to.

It's interesting, too, that Kepler is listed on the roster as an infielder. In his case, that means first base. It hardly precludes some outfield time, but it makes me suspect (especially since the Desert Dogs manager will be Jeff Smith, the manager of the Twins Double-A affiliate) that the Twins want Kepler to focus on first base. (It may also be that there remains some concern about his elbow.)

Trevor May has
averaged more than
a strikeout an inning
this year in Double A.

Also on the roster: Eddie Rosario. Latin players aren't often assigned to the AFL; they more often play winter ball in their homeland (as will be the case with Miguel Sano in the Dominican). Rosario starred last winter in the Puerto Rican winter league. But he was also playing mostly outfield, and the Twins have had him playing second base. It may be that this assignment is rooted in the master plan of Rosario at the keystone.

Then there's the pitchers. The AFL teams are formed out of five different organizations, and typically each team sends one starting pitcher. The Twins are sending two starters: Alex Meyer, who missed much of the summer with a shoulder strain, and Trevor May. Meyer has innings to make up, so sending him is no surprise; May, on the other hand, is on his way to a 150-inning season. They are two of the organization's more prominent pitching prospects, and they're at an advanced level. The Twins would dearly love to see one of them emerge for next year's rotation.

Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, May and Kepler were all generally rated among the organization's top 10 prospects coming into 2013.

The Twins are also sending a pair of relievers, Zach Jones and A.J. Achter, each of whom have had strong seasons. (Achter has split the 2013 season between Double A and Triple A; Jones has been in high A.) As relievers, neither is ever likely to be prominent on prospect lists, but they are legit major-league possibilities.