The Washington Nationals made short work of the NLCS, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals so emphatically -- the Cardinals never had a lead in any game -- that they didn't have to pull their starters-as-relievers bullpen gimmick.
And so Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki and Fernando Rodney, three ex-Twins of varying tenure, are going to the World Series. As is Anibal Sanchez, who was in spring training with the Twins as a non-roster invitee in 2018 and was released when the Twins signed Lance Lynn. Since then Sanchez has pitched more than 300 innings with an ERA of 3.39. (He pitched more innings this year as the Nationals' fourth starter than Jake Odorizzi worked for the Twins.)
We can call Sanchez an ex-Twin, or decide that a few weeks in spring training doesn't count -- but he certainly qualifies as one who got away.
As for the others:
Dozier, now 32, had the lion's share of playing time at second base for the Nats and bopped 20 homers, but Howie Kendrick has pretty much taken over the position in the postseason. He was a bench piece for the Dodgers in last year's World Series also.
Suzuki, now 36, essentially splits the catching chores with former Indians backstop Yan Gomes. Gomes is the better receiver, Suzuki the better bat. I frankly thought Suzuki was pretty much done when his Twins tenure ended, but playing a little less than half-time has worked well for him the pst three seasons. Uniquely among the Nats' ex-Twins, he's signed through next season.
Rodney, now 42, is one of the bullpen pieces the Nationals seek diligently to avoid using in key moments. The Nats picked him up after the A's released him; he pitched in 38 games for Washington with an ERA of 4..05, which is considerably better than the 9.42 he had with Oakland.
Their roles are smaller than they were with the Twins, and their time remaining in the majors is dwindling. But if this is it for Dozier and Rodney, they're going out on a big platform.
Showing posts with label Kurt Suzuki. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kurt Suzuki. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Passed balls, wild pitches and pitch framing
If you don't have a catcher, you have a lot of passed balls.
The one position at which the 2017 Twins are truly different than in 2016 is catcher. The new front office got rid of all three of 2016's backstops. And with the Twins on the verge of becoming the first team to go from 100-plus losses to the playoffs, I thought it worth looking at the difference.
Last year's backstops were Kurt Suzuki, Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy. They caught every inning in 2016.
Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez have done the bulk of the 2017 catching, with Mitch Garver getting a handful of starts behind the plate so far and Eduardo Escobar picking up one inning.
The new front office was explict about seeking to improve "pitch framing" in particular and, presumably, defense in general and was willing to sacrifice some hitting to accomplish that.
Last year I commented, either here or in the Monday print column, with some frequency on the number of passed balls and wild pitches the Twins were giving up. The 2016 Twins allowed 83 wild pitches and nine passed balls: 92 in 1,443 innings, or 0.57 per nine innings. In essence, the Twins last year gave up one (or more) bases every other game.
This year, Gimenez alone has been charged with 10 passed balls. But the wild pitchers have dropped from 83 to 51. and the total (WP plus PB) is down to 66, a rate of 0.42 per nine innings.
What to make of this?
The difference between a passed ball and a wild pitch is artificial, a binary parsing of blame between pitcher and catcher. A pitch is uncaught, a runner (or runners) advance(s), and one individual is blamed by the official scorer for the event. Some wild pitches are truly the pitcher's fault; some come because the catcher failed to block a pitch that was exactly what the pitcher intended to throw (a slider in the dirt with two strikes, for example). Meanwhile, the catcher who leads the league in passed balls is almost always the guy who catches the most knuckleballs. (That's not the case this year.)
This is why I tend to combine WP and BP. I'm interested in the result less than the blame.
That said, the artifical difference in this case may be illuminating. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press noted when the Twins signed Castro that, while his pitch framing stats were very impressive, his passed balls were relatively high.
What may be going on, particularly for Gimenez: The perfect can become the enemy of the good. In attempting to perfectly receive a marginal pitch -- that is, catching it with a still glove at the edge of the strike zone -- the catcher miscalcuates and misses the pitch entirely. It's a trade off, and presumably the Twins are willing to accept a few more passed balls for more called strikes.
Castro and Gimenez have hit about as well (or poorly) as we should have expected. They have also been what was expected behind the plate as well -- a defensive upgrade from Suzuki and Centero.
Suzuki, who was the Twins' regular catcher for three seasons, re-signed with the Atlanta Braves for 2018 last week. He's had a rather impressive season as a half-time catcher in Atlanta, popping 18 homers in less than 300 plate appearances (he tallied 16 total with the Twins).
And good for him. I doubt the Twins regret the change on their end.
Casey Stengel
The one position at which the 2017 Twins are truly different than in 2016 is catcher. The new front office got rid of all three of 2016's backstops. And with the Twins on the verge of becoming the first team to go from 100-plus losses to the playoffs, I thought it worth looking at the difference.
Last year's backstops were Kurt Suzuki, Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy. They caught every inning in 2016.
Jason Castro and Chris Gimenez have done the bulk of the 2017 catching, with Mitch Garver getting a handful of starts behind the plate so far and Eduardo Escobar picking up one inning.
The new front office was explict about seeking to improve "pitch framing" in particular and, presumably, defense in general and was willing to sacrifice some hitting to accomplish that.
Last year I commented, either here or in the Monday print column, with some frequency on the number of passed balls and wild pitches the Twins were giving up. The 2016 Twins allowed 83 wild pitches and nine passed balls: 92 in 1,443 innings, or 0.57 per nine innings. In essence, the Twins last year gave up one (or more) bases every other game.
This year, Gimenez alone has been charged with 10 passed balls. But the wild pitchers have dropped from 83 to 51. and the total (WP plus PB) is down to 66, a rate of 0.42 per nine innings.
What to make of this?
The difference between a passed ball and a wild pitch is artificial, a binary parsing of blame between pitcher and catcher. A pitch is uncaught, a runner (or runners) advance(s), and one individual is blamed by the official scorer for the event. Some wild pitches are truly the pitcher's fault; some come because the catcher failed to block a pitch that was exactly what the pitcher intended to throw (a slider in the dirt with two strikes, for example). Meanwhile, the catcher who leads the league in passed balls is almost always the guy who catches the most knuckleballs. (That's not the case this year.)
This is why I tend to combine WP and BP. I'm interested in the result less than the blame.
That said, the artifical difference in this case may be illuminating. Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press noted when the Twins signed Castro that, while his pitch framing stats were very impressive, his passed balls were relatively high.
What may be going on, particularly for Gimenez: The perfect can become the enemy of the good. In attempting to perfectly receive a marginal pitch -- that is, catching it with a still glove at the edge of the strike zone -- the catcher miscalcuates and misses the pitch entirely. It's a trade off, and presumably the Twins are willing to accept a few more passed balls for more called strikes.
Castro and Gimenez have hit about as well (or poorly) as we should have expected. They have also been what was expected behind the plate as well -- a defensive upgrade from Suzuki and Centero.
Suzuki, who was the Twins' regular catcher for three seasons, re-signed with the Atlanta Braves for 2018 last week. He's had a rather impressive season as a half-time catcher in Atlanta, popping 18 homers in less than 300 plate appearances (he tallied 16 total with the Twins).
And good for him. I doubt the Twins regret the change on their end.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment (catcher edition)
The Twins on Friday announced that Anthony Recker cleared waivers and was outrighted to Rochester.
There didn't seem much reason for Recker to be on the 40-man roster, but it's interesting that the Twins opened another spot on the 40. They're down to 38 now after removing Recker and John Ryan Murphy, which would suggest that they are prepared to add before Monday's trade deadline rather than subtract.
That doesn't fit the conventional wisdom, which holds that the combination of the recent slump, the continuing win streaks of the Indians and Royals, and the horrid run differential have turned the Twins from buyers to sellers.
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The former Twins backstop is now the backup for Tyler Flowers in Atlanta. Flowers is hitting over .300 for the Braves this year; his batting average in two seasons in Atlanta is more than 60 points higher than it was with the White Sox. So the Braves are getting some good hitting from their catchers.
The new park there is apparently playing as a hitter's park, but most of Suzuki's damage has come on the road.
---
Chris Herrmann, another former Twms catcher who is now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, has eight homers himself this year. He's also hitting .165, which is quite the comedown from last year's .284.
The D-backs have three catchers on their active roster, and Herrmann leads the trio in plate appearances with 185. But he's played almost as much in the outfield (12 starts and 142 innings) as behind the plate (17 starts and almost 185 innings). The other catchers are veterans Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta, each 34.
This might explain why the Diamondbacks were sufficiently interested in John Ryan Murphy to trade for him. There looks like a pretty good opportunity there for JRM.
There didn't seem much reason for Recker to be on the 40-man roster, but it's interesting that the Twins opened another spot on the 40. They're down to 38 now after removing Recker and John Ryan Murphy, which would suggest that they are prepared to add before Monday's trade deadline rather than subtract.
That doesn't fit the conventional wisdom, which holds that the combination of the recent slump, the continuing win streaks of the Indians and Royals, and the horrid run differential have turned the Twins from buyers to sellers.
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Kurt Suzuki leads off the #Braves 7th with his 11th homer of the season.— Kevin McAlpin (@KevinMcAlpin) July 29, 2017
7 of those home runs have come in July where he's hitting .371
The former Twins backstop is now the backup for Tyler Flowers in Atlanta. Flowers is hitting over .300 for the Braves this year; his batting average in two seasons in Atlanta is more than 60 points higher than it was with the White Sox. So the Braves are getting some good hitting from their catchers.
The new park there is apparently playing as a hitter's park, but most of Suzuki's damage has come on the road.
---
Chris Herrmann, another former Twms catcher who is now with the Arizona Diamondbacks, has eight homers himself this year. He's also hitting .165, which is quite the comedown from last year's .284.
The D-backs have three catchers on their active roster, and Herrmann leads the trio in plate appearances with 185. But he's played almost as much in the outfield (12 starts and 142 innings) as behind the plate (17 starts and almost 185 innings). The other catchers are veterans Jeff Mathis and Chris Iannetta, each 34.
This might explain why the Diamondbacks were sufficiently interested in John Ryan Murphy to trade for him. There looks like a pretty good opportunity there for JRM.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Turnover among the catchers
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| Mitch Garver caught in the Arizona Fall League for the second straight season. |
Neither remains on the 40-man roster. Suzuki is a free agent after the expiration of his contract, and Centeno was outrighted Friday. Each was a better hitter than receiver last year, and the new regime appears to have defense as a priority behind the plate.
The Twins have two catchers on their 40 now: John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver. I wouldn't care to wager that either will be the main receiver in 2017, but it's possible.
I saw Garver in 2014 with Cedar Rapids. He was in his first full season of professional ball, hitting well and reportedly rather rough behind the plate. He's still got some bat, even though his raw numbers the past two years aren't quite as impressive as in the Midwest League, and the reports on his catching are improving. (Mike Berandino of the Pioneer Press had this piece recently about Garver's work on his defensive skills.)
Garver was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2013, a draft in which the Twins took catchers in the third (Stuart Turner), sixth (Brian Navaretto) and ninth rounds. Neither Turner nor Navaretto have hit, and neither was added to the 40, so Garver has clearly passed them on the depth chart.
But it seems pretty clear, both from what the new regime has said and from what their organizations have done in the past (particularly in Cleveland) that the priority behind the plate is going to be defense. Murphy had a miserable season hitting last year, both at the majors and at Triple A, but his defensive metrics score well. Garver may well be a better hitter, but that probably doesn't give him an advantage over JRM.
And it would hardly be a surprise if a veteran backstop were added this winter.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Cleveland's catching choice
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| Going, going, gone: Roberto Perez hits the first of his two home runs Tuesday night in Game One of the World Series. |
The Cleveland Indians, it's safe to say, didn't get much offense out of its catchers this year. Yan Gomes, who was the No. 1 guy before his July knee injury (suffered against the Twins), hit .167. Roberto Perez and Chris Gimenez, who shared the chores after Gomes went down, hit .183 and .216 respectively.
Cleveland tried to trade for Jonathan Lucroy at the deadline, but he exercised his no-trade clause and wound up dealt to Texas. And the Tribe's apparent need for a backstop had a good piece of the Twins blogosphere expecting them to deal for Kurt Suzuki.
Which, clearly, did not happen. Nobody traded for Suzuki. He spent the season in Minnesota, where he finished the season with a .258 batting average, which turns out to be the highest batting average of AL catchers with at least 300 plate appearances.
I doubt Cleveland regrets not going for the better bat, and not merely because Perez (three homers in the regular season) hit two longballs Tuesday in the first game of the World Series. Perez has been a hidden factor in the Indians' imposing postseason pitching performance, a quiet receiver who isn't taking away strikes from his hurlers.
Suzuki, according to Baseball Reference, compiled 0.4 WAR. Perez, in about half the playing time and about half the offense, is credited with 0.5. I won't guarantee that anybody's version of WAR had defense perfectly measured, and particularly that of catchers, but that feels about right to me.
Bottom line: Cleveland, with Derek Falvey presumably involved in the evaluation, prefered the no-hit Perez to Suzuki. Meanwhile, the Twins sacrificed defense behind the plate for better production at it, not only with Suzuki but with backup catcher Juan Centeno. It's certainly possible that this will be a point of disagreement between Falvey and manager Paul Molitor when Falvey starts with the Twins.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Notes, quotes and comment
Nice game Tuesday for Ervin Santana. Can't say the same for the Twins hitters, of course, but Santana knocked his ERA under 3.80 with the complete game.
Rob Antony. the interim GM, has said he's not actively shopping the veteran starter as the trading deadline approaches. If Antony is being honest when he says he's not under orders to pare the payroll, I'm fine with that. The Twins need to open a rotation spot for Jose Barrios, but I'd rather open that slot at the end of the rotation than at the head of it.
That said, the clamor for Ricky Nolasco's services is somewhat less than deafening.
---
This search firm reportedly comes highly recommended by the owners of the Blue Jays and Brewers, who used it to hire their GMs last offseason, and the Timberwolves used it in the process of hiring Tom Thibodeau. I doubt any basketball fan needed a search firm to identify Thibodeau; the guy the Jays hired had worked with Mark Shapiro in Cleveland; David Stearns was widely known in the industry as an up-and-comer. I'm skeptical that the firm added any real value to the outcomes of those hires.
Mike Berardino offers this 10-man list of outside candidates. Not on his list, for whatever reasons, is Kim Ng, who I've seen named elsewhere.
---
Kurt Suzuki caught Tuesday, three days after getting seven stitches in his chin. I mention it with a sense of incredulity.
Rob Antony. the interim GM, has said he's not actively shopping the veteran starter as the trading deadline approaches. If Antony is being honest when he says he's not under orders to pare the payroll, I'm fine with that. The Twins need to open a rotation spot for Jose Barrios, but I'd rather open that slot at the end of the rotation than at the head of it.
That said, the clamor for Ricky Nolasco's services is somewhat less than deafening.
---
The @Twins announced today the franchise has retained Korn Ferry to assist the team in its search for new baseball operations leadership.— Dustin Morse (@Twins_morsecode) July 26, 2016
This search firm reportedly comes highly recommended by the owners of the Blue Jays and Brewers, who used it to hire their GMs last offseason, and the Timberwolves used it in the process of hiring Tom Thibodeau. I doubt any basketball fan needed a search firm to identify Thibodeau; the guy the Jays hired had worked with Mark Shapiro in Cleveland; David Stearns was widely known in the industry as an up-and-comer. I'm skeptical that the firm added any real value to the outcomes of those hires.
Mike Berardino offers this 10-man list of outside candidates. Not on his list, for whatever reasons, is Kim Ng, who I've seen named elsewhere.
---
Kurt Suzuki caught Tuesday, three days after getting seven stitches in his chin. I mention it with a sense of incredulity.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Notes from the weekend
The Twins certainly had an odd series in Boston: One pitchers duel, one blowout, two close high-scoring affairs, and a series split.
Good: Kyle Gibson was stellar Friday night: two hits and a walk in eight innings, with six strikeouts. He also had a pair of wild pitches with Juan Centeno behind the dish. And he knocked almost a half-run off his ERA (5.12 entering the game. 4.67 exiting it).
The PioPress' Mike Bernardino on Gibson's potential trade value:
The analytics issue with Gibson is easily identified: A low strikeout rate. This year he's averaging 6.4 K/9, slightly down from 2015. There are times when he appears to be able to use his changeup as a strikeout pitch; other times, not so.
Bad: Miguel Sano's error rate at third base is ridiculous. He's been charged with 10 errors in 15 games since July 3, and he's had other make-able plays go unmade that were ruled hits. This audition at the hot corner while Trevor Plouffe recovers from his cracked rib is making the right field experiment look less silly by the day.
I didn't expect him to be Brooks Robinson, or even early Corey Koskie, at third base. I find it difficult to believe that he's this awful, but the evidence is mounting.
The ugly: Kurt Suzuki took a foul ball off the mask and wound up with a seven-stitch cut on his chin. Somehow:
Good: Kyle Gibson was stellar Friday night: two hits and a walk in eight innings, with six strikeouts. He also had a pair of wild pitches with Juan Centeno behind the dish. And he knocked almost a half-run off his ERA (5.12 entering the game. 4.67 exiting it).
The PioPress' Mike Bernardino on Gibson's potential trade value:
Gibson has plenty of fans in scouting realm. Analytics depts? Not so much. https://t.co/yrtFIBwLXL— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) July 25, 2016
The analytics issue with Gibson is easily identified: A low strikeout rate. This year he's averaging 6.4 K/9, slightly down from 2015. There are times when he appears to be able to use his changeup as a strikeout pitch; other times, not so.
Bad: Miguel Sano's error rate at third base is ridiculous. He's been charged with 10 errors in 15 games since July 3, and he's had other make-able plays go unmade that were ruled hits. This audition at the hot corner while Trevor Plouffe recovers from his cracked rib is making the right field experiment look less silly by the day.
I didn't expect him to be Brooks Robinson, or even early Corey Koskie, at third base. I find it difficult to believe that he's this awful, but the evidence is mounting.
The ugly: Kurt Suzuki took a foul ball off the mask and wound up with a seven-stitch cut on his chin. Somehow:
- he passed the concussion protocol test
- he's expected to be available to catch Tuesday, their next scheduled game.
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Contemplating Kurt Suzuki
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| Kurt Suzuki has yet to be charged with a passed ball this year, but there have been 20 wild pitches in his 480-plus innings caught. |
Today, Suzuki has a slash line of .294/.332/.447. Yes, his OPS at the break this year is actually higher than his OPS at the break in his career year 2014. Maybe it's the ax-handle bat, maybe it's the reduced playing time, maybe there's no real reason -- but he has hit.
His season has been a model of inconsistency. Through May, he was slashing .212/.266/.293, which is release-bait production. June and so far in July, he's slashing .378/.402/.602, which is MVP-caliber production.
Obviously, Suzuki didn't get an All-Star bid this year. But his resurgence, and the Twins' continued organizational issues with catchers, poses something of a dilemma for the decision makers.
Suzuki is 32, turns 33 in October. He has a vesting option for 2017 that kicks in if he reaches 485 plate appearances, and he is nowhere near being on track to get that much playing time. So he's destined for free agency after the season. John Ryan Murphy, theoretically heir to the catching job, not only hasn't shoved the veteran aside this year as expected, he's hitting .204 in Rochester.
I don't know what the trade market is like for Suzuki this month. There may be a contender that sees him as a significant upgrade over their current catcher and is willing to pay for him. I am confident that the Twins regard him as better than their current catching choices not only for 2016 but 2017.
Keep him or trade him? Obviously the answer depends on the return. There are veterans on this roster the Twins can justifiably move at a discount because doing so will open time for younger players. Suzuki is not one of them. Yet betting on a 33-year-old catcher to continue to hit at a career-high level is unwise.
Suzuki may prove a yardstick of sorts to how intently Terry Ryan and Co. intend to reshape this roster by the trading deadline.
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Notes, quotes and comment
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| Look closely at the bat knob, and you might see something odd about Kurt Suzuki's current bat. |
Judging by the above photo, taken since Suzuki is said to have converted to the new bat full time, there may not be enough difference to really notice, especially when the hitter has both hands on the bat.
---
Zack Jones, a high-velocity arm the Twins lost in the Rule 5 draft last offseason, was returned to the Minnesota organization by the Brewers over the weekend. He had shoulder problems early in spring training and never actually pitched for the Brewers, but he did get about two-and-a-half months of major league (minimum) salary while on the disabled list. (Jones did make a few minor league appearances on a rehab assignment.)
Jones has been assigned to Double-A Chattanooga, and we'll obviously see what happens from here.
---
The Twins were off Monday, and I spent the evening running errands and mowing, but I did catch an inning of Steven Wright's knuckleball pitching. He went nine innings of one-run ball (unearned) against the White Sox, but the White Sox won in 10, beating Craig Kimbrel. ("Hey, a fast ball. I know how to hit something hard and straight!") The run was unearned because it scored on a passed ball, but really -- passed balls with a knuckleballer on the mound are more the fault of the pitch than of the catcher.
Wright has now made 14 starts for Boston this year, 98.1 innings with an ERA of 2.01. There is speculation that he might start the All Star game next month.
It's fun to watch a flutterballer work, partly because it looks easy enough. I can watch, say, Ervin Santana pitch and know I could never throw with that velocity (and he isn't a particularly hard thrower).
Looks easy but it obviously isn't. There are only two true knuckleballers in the bigs now -- Wright and R.D. Dickey of Toronto -- and they both spent years in the minors refining the pitch.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Notes, quotes and comment
The word out of Chicago (where the Twins spent Thursday's off day) was that Kurt Suzuki's knee felt good enough that it was deemed unnecessary to see another doctor.
If that assessment is accurate, that's good. I certainly expected at the time of Wednesday's collision that Suzuki's season was over. We'll see, obviously, how all this plays out.
---
Plenty of Ron Gardenhire talk the past few days out of Detroit, where the chatter is that owner Mike Ilitch has decided that Brad Ausmus won't return as manager and that the 86-year-old owner wants Gardy as the dugout boss.
I can't help but notice that Al Avila, the new general manager in Motown, is barely mentioned in these reports. It's all being driven, apparently, by Ilitch. As a general rule, when owners start making basic baseball decisions, it turns out poorly.
One aspect in which Gardenhire is an obvious good fit for Detroit: His bullpens in Minnesota were generally quite good, and the relief corps in Detroit were, for both Ausmus and Jim Leyland, frequently the weakest point of the roster. And Gardy's preference for veterans fits well with an organization with one of the game's weakest farm systems.
The arrow is pointing down for Detroit right now. It's not a job positioned for immediate success, even with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander on the roster. But Gardenhire wants to manage again, and there are only 30 such jobs.
If that assessment is accurate, that's good. I certainly expected at the time of Wednesday's collision that Suzuki's season was over. We'll see, obviously, how all this plays out.
---
Plenty of Ron Gardenhire talk the past few days out of Detroit, where the chatter is that owner Mike Ilitch has decided that Brad Ausmus won't return as manager and that the 86-year-old owner wants Gardy as the dugout boss.
I can't help but notice that Al Avila, the new general manager in Motown, is barely mentioned in these reports. It's all being driven, apparently, by Ilitch. As a general rule, when owners start making basic baseball decisions, it turns out poorly.
One aspect in which Gardenhire is an obvious good fit for Detroit: His bullpens in Minnesota were generally quite good, and the relief corps in Detroit were, for both Ausmus and Jim Leyland, frequently the weakest point of the roster. And Gardy's preference for veterans fits well with an organization with one of the game's weakest farm systems.
The arrow is pointing down for Detroit right now. It's not a job positioned for immediate success, even with Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander on the roster. But Gardenhire wants to manage again, and there are only 30 such jobs.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
The Twins didn't kneed this
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| As this 10th-inning play illustrates, the 2014 rule changes have not eradicated home plate collisions. |
Still, he entered Wednesday's game having hit .290 over the past four weeks, and he bopped a homer to open the scoring. And, of course, he exited the game with assistance after the above play.
There was nothing wrong with Dyson's play, and nothing Suzuki did wrong either. Blaine Boyer hung Suzuki out to dry with a sloppy throw on the comebacker.
The Twins announced before the game ended the Suzuki has a bruised knee. Paul Molitor sounded a bit wary of that diagnosis in the post-game presser, and I don't blame him. That looked like a ligament-damage play to me. We'll see what comes of it today.
Bruise, sprain or worse, it certainly seems possible that Suzuki won't be playing for a few days at the least. The Twins have an off day today, but the games will resume on Friday, and somebody's gotta catch.
About the only thing keeping Suzuki's many online critics from demanding his benching is the belief that neither Chris Herrmann nor Eric Fryer are capable replacements. My thought is that Herrmann might be a competent hitter if given a straight platoon role -- limit his exposure to left-handed pitching and play him regularly versus right-handers. What he's gotten is something else again: 104 plate appearances scattered through the season, a fourth of them against lefties. If Suzuki is, as I suspected immediately after the play, out for the season, I'm OK with a straight platoon of Herrmann and Fryer. It might be better than we anticipate, not that that's a tremendously high bar.
Two things we know aren't going to happen: Joe Mauer isn't strapping on the gear, and Josmil Pinto isn't coming up. I keep seeing those suggestions online. Really, folks. We might as well ask for Terry Steinbach to return.
Friday, August 14, 2015
Notes, quotes and comment
Catching up on a few items from the past week:
Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press had this piece on Kurt Suzuki's skepticism about pitch-framing stats. The Twins catcher had so much skepticism about sabermetric evaluation that Berardino couldn't fit it all into that story and spilled it over into this blog post.
And you know what? I don't care that Suzuki hasn't read up on WAR or walked through the math that insists that the very best players (Mike Trout for example) account for only a handful of wins. That's essentially useless information for a player. It will matter if he harbors ambitions of someday having a baseball job that involves player evaluation, but for what he's doing now, it's immaterial.
---
Lynn Henning of the Detroit News had this analysis of the challenges facing the Tigers' new general manager, Al Avila.
Noteworthy in my eyes is his assertion about who would replace Brad Ausmus as manager should Avila make a change:
---
Josmil Pinto, sidelined for much of the season with concussion issues, is playing again. He's getting some at-bats as a designated hitter in the Gulf Coast League, the Twins' lowest stateside affiliate, and he's not expected to get behind the plate again this year.
I don't expect to see him in the majors this year.
Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press had this piece on Kurt Suzuki's skepticism about pitch-framing stats. The Twins catcher had so much skepticism about sabermetric evaluation that Berardino couldn't fit it all into that story and spilled it over into this blog post.
And you know what? I don't care that Suzuki hasn't read up on WAR or walked through the math that insists that the very best players (Mike Trout for example) account for only a handful of wins. That's essentially useless information for a player. It will matter if he harbors ambitions of someday having a baseball job that involves player evaluation, but for what he's doing now, it's immaterial.
---
Lynn Henning of the Detroit News had this analysis of the challenges facing the Tigers' new general manager, Al Avila.
Noteworthy in my eyes is his assertion about who would replace Brad Ausmus as manager should Avila make a change:
The expectation would be Avila and owner Mike Ilitch will opt for 57-year-old Ron Gardenhire, the former Twins general who wants to manage again, and who knows the division intimately.Gardy would certainly (as Henning says in the piece) represent a return to the old-school approach to managing -- more seat-of-the-pants, less use of analytics. It would certainly run counter to the overall trend.
---
Josmil Pinto, sidelined for much of the season with concussion issues, is playing again. He's getting some at-bats as a designated hitter in the Gulf Coast League, the Twins' lowest stateside affiliate, and he's not expected to get behind the plate again this year.
I don't expect to see him in the majors this year.
Monday, July 6, 2015
Contemplating the catcher situation
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| Kurt Suzuki's hitting has fallen off sharply from 2014, when he was named to the All-Star team. |
Still, there seems little indication that anything is going to change in this arrangement. Josmil Pinto, the only other catcher currently on the 40 man roster, was sidelined weeks ago by a concussion and is just starting to resume baseball activities, specifically catching in the bullpen.
And Eric Fryer, who had callups in both 2013 and 2014, is going to play for Team USA in the Pan Am Games, which begin next weekend in Canada and runs through July 19. Presumably the organization would not have given Fryer permission to leave the Rochester club for that purpose if they were thinking about bringing him back to replace Herrmann on the roster.
My guess is that if something were to happen during Fryer's absence that required a catcher callup and Pinto isn't ready that they'd turn to Stuart Turner, the No. 1 catcher for the Double A Chattanooga Lookouts. He can't hit either (.189 in Double A), but he wouldn't be an embarrassment behind the dish.
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| Ron Gardenhire was more apt to play Chris Herrmann in the outfield than at catcher, but Paul Molitor has used Herrmann strictly behind the plate. |
Herrmann plays only when Suzuki gets a day off. Herrmann caught the Saturday night game against a right-handed starter and Suzuki caught the Sunday day game against a lefty. That took advantage of one of Herrmann's defining traits: He hits left handed. Given his decent minor league numbers, I think he could be a reasonably productive hitter if he got more frequent playing time against right-handers, but about a third of his plate appearances have come against lefties. Such is the lot of the backup catcher.
Herrman has had more success throwing out basestealers than Suzuki has. Herrmann's caught stealing rate, 33 percent, is pretty much a match for the league average, while Suzuki's is just 21 percent.
There have been 21 wild pitches with Suzuki behind the plate and two passed balls charged to him. Herrmann has not been charged with a passed ball and been unable to block nine wild pitches. Suzuki has 0.36 WP+BP per nine innings, Herrmann 0.49. That's a wider difference than I would have guessed.
Friday, May 15, 2015
Pondering the use of backup catchers
Torii Hunter got Thursday off, which made sense; day game after a night game, and he's not a young guy. Kurt Suzuki started at catcher, and that surprised me. I figured it a good chance to get Chris Herrmann a start. Day game after night game, right-handed pitcher for Detroit, and Herrmann last started on May 6.
That start came against a lefty (Scott Kazmir). Herrmann's previous start was on May 3; it too came against a lefty (John Danks). Thirteen of Herrmann's first 30 plate appearances came against left-handed pitchers. That's probably suboptimal for Herrmann, and I infer that Paul Molitor isn't as interested in matchups with his catchers as I expected him to be/
Suzuki has started 28 of 35 games behind the plate, which pales in comparison to Salvador Perez of Kansas City. Perez sat Thursday; it was only the third game he didn't start behind the plate this season.
Perez's current backup is Drew Butera, who came to the Royals a week ago from the Angels in a trade that involved a minor-league infielder. He's already made two starts fo K.C., which suggests that either
Or maybe both. Kratz is on the disabled list, but he barely played when active. A lot of fans look at Butera's anemic hitting stats and wonder why he keeps finding jobs, but managers really do like his defensive chops. Yost has been reluctant to rest Perez for years because Perez is so good defensively; Butera's no Perez, especially throwing, but he's good enough defensively that the dropoff is manageable.
That start came against a lefty (Scott Kazmir). Herrmann's previous start was on May 3; it too came against a lefty (John Danks). Thirteen of Herrmann's first 30 plate appearances came against left-handed pitchers. That's probably suboptimal for Herrmann, and I infer that Paul Molitor isn't as interested in matchups with his catchers as I expected him to be/
Suzuki has started 28 of 35 games behind the plate, which pales in comparison to Salvador Perez of Kansas City. Perez sat Thursday; it was only the third game he didn't start behind the plate this season.
Perez's current backup is Drew Butera, who came to the Royals a week ago from the Angels in a trade that involved a minor-league infielder. He's already made two starts fo K.C., which suggests that either
- manager Ned Yost knows he's got to pull back on Perez or
- Yost trusts Butera a lot more than he trusted Eric Kratz, who opened the season as the No. 2 catcher.
Or maybe both. Kratz is on the disabled list, but he barely played when active. A lot of fans look at Butera's anemic hitting stats and wonder why he keeps finding jobs, but managers really do like his defensive chops. Yost has been reluctant to rest Perez for years because Perez is so good defensively; Butera's no Perez, especially throwing, but he's good enough defensively that the dropoff is manageable.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Notes, quotes and comment
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| Josh Hamilton on Angels owner Arte Moreno: "He knew what the deal was when he signed me, hands down. He knew what he was getting. He knew what the risks were. He knew all those things." |
I've sounded off on the subject here and here, and see no need to repeat myself. But I will add this: Even through commissioner Rob Manfred has shown no interest in investigating the leak about Hamilton's relapse -- a leak that appears to have originated with the Angels -- the Angels are getting punished for it.
All they accomplished with the leak (and again, I assume it came from them, but that is not established) and their subsequent on-the-record statements denouncing Hamilton was destroy his potential trade value.
In the end, the Rangers get whatever Hamilton has left for a mere $6 million, and the Angels will have paid Hamilton $110 million for two seasons in Anaheim. Signing Hamilton wasn't bright; being surprised that he hasn't fully shaken his addictions is even less so. But saying good-bye to him didn't have to be that expensive.
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Two winters ago the Twins were linked to free agent catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. They signed with Boston and Miami respectively, and the Twins settled for Kurt Suzuki.
The Red Sox released Pierzynski last summer. The Marlins on Monday designated Saltalamacchia for assignment; he hit .209 in one season plus a month. The Fish have 10 days to trade or release him, and there probably won't be anybody eager to absorb almost two years of his contract.
Sometimes -- I dare say most of the time -- you're better off not signing the free agents you covet.
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The Baltimore Orioles game (against the White Sox) Monday night was postponed because of the civic unrest over the death of a black man in police custody. There are many more significant ramifications than a baseball game or two from this crisis, but it does create an intersection between politics and sports.
In that light, this quasi-statement from John Angelos, the son of the Orioles owner and the team chief operating officer, is fascinating reading. It was assembled by USA Today Monday from a series of tweets Angelos issued in response to a tweet from a local radio host after fans were kept from leaving the stadium because of the unrest Sunday.
Brett, speaking only for myself, I agree with your point that the principle of peaceful, non-violent protest and the observance of the rule of law is of utmost importance in any society. MLK, Gandhi, Mandela and all great opposition leaders throughout history have always preached this precept. Further, it is critical that in any democracy, investigation must be completed and due process must be honored before any government or police members are judged responsible.
That said, my greater source of personal concern, outrage and sympathy beyond this particular case is focused neither upon one night’s property damage nor upon the acts, but is focused rather upon the past four-decade period during which an American political elite have shipped middle class and working class jobs away from Baltimore and cities and towns around the U.S. to third-world dictatorships like China and others, plunged tens of millions of good, hard-working Americans into economic devastation, and then followed that action around the nation by diminishing every American’s civil rights protections in order to control an unfairly impoverished population living under an ever-declining standard of living and suffering at the butt end of an ever-more militarized and aggressive surveillance state.
The innocent working families of all backgrounds whose lives and dreams have been cut short by excessive violence, surveillance, and other abuses of the Bill of Rights by government pay the true price, and ultimate price, and one that far exceeds the importances of any kids’ game played tonight, or ever, at Camden Yards. We need to keep in mind people are suffering and dying around the U.S., and while we are thankful no one was injured at Camden Yards, there is a far bigger picture for poor Americans in Baltimore and everywhere who don’t have jobs and are losing economic civil and legal rights, and this makes inconvenience at a ballgame irrelevant in light of the needless suffering government is inflicting upon ordinary Americans.
That is a manifesto one would not expect from somebody in Angelos' position.
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Pic of the Week
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| Kurt Suzuki tags out Adam Eaton for the final out of the Twins' first victory of 2015. |
Two things about this photo:
- Suzuki is in a very awkward position.
- What is Eaton doing, getting thrown out at home plate down six runs?
Monday, January 12, 2015
The Twins by position: Catcher
.jpg) |
| Kurt Suzuki had a career year hitting last season and parlayed that into a two-year contract extension. |
Now they're looking for catching help, and not getting anywhere. They have two on their 40-man roster: last's year's backup Tuffy Goeswisch, a 31-year-old with all of 55 games on his major league resume, and Oscar Hernandez, a Rule 5 draftee out of the Tampa Bay organization who was left off the Rays' 40 after repeating Low A ball.
It's not a promising duo. Yet when the Twins outrighted Eric Fryer -- their primary backup catcher for most of 2014 -- last month, Arizona didn't claim him. Presumably they didn't see Fryer as any sort of upgrade over Goeswisch or Hernandez, and certainly not as a guy they could start 125 games behind the plate.
Catcher is a unique position, the most supremely specialized of the non-pitching positions. Kurt Suzuki, the Twins No.1 catcher these days, doesn't do any one thing superbly, but he does everything well enough. If Suzuki stays healthy, the Twins are OK behind the plate.
Behind him ... well, there's Josmil Pinto, who hits better than Suzuki but is regarded as a poor receiver, and there's Chris Herrmann, who hits left-handed and has some positional versatility. In fact, the Twins list Herrmann on their 40-man roster as an outfielder.
Paul Molitor should already know this, but Herrmann doesn't hit well enough to merit sustained playing time in the outfield. If he makes the team, it's as a backup to Suzuki. Pinto hits well enough to merit sustained time at designated hitter, but Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to play him there without a third catcher on the roster, and now Kennys Vargas appears to have the first crack at the DH job.
And Fryer, while not on the 40, remains in the organization and remains the superior defensive option as Suzuki's caddy.
Were Gardenhire still the manager, I would assume Fryer will be the backup catcher. Who makes the roster figures to tell us something about Molitor's priorities -- how he balances hitting potential and defensive skills, and how he views the importance of the platoon advantage.
Friday, December 26, 2014
The wandering Pierzynski
I was reminded on Christmas Eve of the old baseball chestnut, "The best moves are the ones you don't make."
What reminded me of that was the news that A.J. Pierzynski had signed with the Atlanta Braves.
The Twins, you may recall, were hot for their former catcher last winter, but he spurned their two-year offer to take a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. It was an understandable decision; Pierzynski was a well-used 36, the Sox were defending World Series champs, and A.J. was chasing another ring.
It didn't work for him in Boston. The Sox released him during the All-Star break with their typical reputation-smearing whisper campaign. He finished the season with the Cardinals and didn't hit with them either.
And now Atlanta, where he probably projects as a backup, although it's not easy to discern the Braves' direction this offseason. As I said last summer, Pierzynski's days as a No. 1 catcher appear to be over. He can probably milk a few more seasons out of his career as a backup, but he's not going to stick in any one place for more than a year.
The Twins settled last year for Kurt Suzuki, who is about six years younger than Piersynski and rewarded the Twins with the best offensive season of his career. Even so, he tailed off rather sharply in the second half, the slump seemingly coming after he signed a two-year extension, and we'll see if the Twins get their money's worth out of the new deal.
Their second choice last December was certainly better than their first choice.
What reminded me of that was the news that A.J. Pierzynski had signed with the Atlanta Braves.
The Twins, you may recall, were hot for their former catcher last winter, but he spurned their two-year offer to take a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox. It was an understandable decision; Pierzynski was a well-used 36, the Sox were defending World Series champs, and A.J. was chasing another ring.
It didn't work for him in Boston. The Sox released him during the All-Star break with their typical reputation-smearing whisper campaign. He finished the season with the Cardinals and didn't hit with them either.
And now Atlanta, where he probably projects as a backup, although it's not easy to discern the Braves' direction this offseason. As I said last summer, Pierzynski's days as a No. 1 catcher appear to be over. He can probably milk a few more seasons out of his career as a backup, but he's not going to stick in any one place for more than a year.
The Twins settled last year for Kurt Suzuki, who is about six years younger than Piersynski and rewarded the Twins with the best offensive season of his career. Even so, he tailed off rather sharply in the second half, the slump seemingly coming after he signed a two-year extension, and we'll see if the Twins get their money's worth out of the new deal.
Their second choice last December was certainly better than their first choice.
Friday, August 1, 2014
Deadline day: Milone, Suzuki, Vargas, Fuld
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| It speaks to how deep Oakland's pitching is that the Athletics could discard Tommy Milone for a backup outfielder. |
They had other moves to make as well: they called up Kennys Vargas and signed Kurt Suzuki to a two- or three-year contract extension, depending on how many at-bats the veteran catcher gets in 2016.
Going through the moves, one player at a time:
Tommy Milone
A soft-tossing 27-year-old lefty, Milone has compiled a 32-22, 3.84 record in 80 games, 78 starts over the past four years. Yes, he's in Triple A now; that's because the A's overloaded themselves with starters earlier in July with the Jeff Samardzija-Jason Hammel trade, and Milone had an option left.The Twins have been trying to add velocity in recent years. That is, emphatically, not Milone; he averages 86 mph on his fast ball. But he's been effective anyway.
Will that effectiveness continue? Well, he won't have the outfield defense behind him with the Twins that he generally had in Oakland, but Target Field, like the Oakland monstrosity, is pitcher-friendly. He's not close to be being the best lefty dealt on Thursday, and he's nobody's idea of an ace, but he will be an upgrade in the middle to back of the rotation. His track record says he's better than Kevin Correia.
Milone had dropped to seventh on the A's starting pitcher list with the addition earlier Thursday of Jon Lester, and he was vocally displeased about his demotion. For now, he's assigned to Rochester, but I rather suspect the Twins won't even have him report to the Red Wings. He started Tuesday for Sacramento; I expect him to be called up this weekend.
Kurt Suzuki
I opined in the Monday print column that a big reason -- really the only reason -- for the Twins to retain Suzuki was the lack of alternatives in the system. The veteran got two years guaranteed at $6 million a year -- more than double his current salary -- and a third year at the same pay if he meets playing time criteria.What this tells us, besides the fact that Suzuki has had a surprisingly good season with the Twins, is that the organization doesn't believe in Josmil Pinto in particular or in any of the catchers in the upper levels of the farm system. That last is no surprise -- it's why the Twins drafted three catchers in the first nine rounds of the 2013 draft.
Sam Fuld
Everybody is falling over themselves lauding Billy Beane, the Oakland GM, for landing Jon Lester on Thursday. His moves with Fuld, on the other hand, don't look quite as nifty.
Fuld opened the season with the A's; he played centerfield against the Twins during Minnesota's home opener series because of injuries to Coco Crisp and Craig Gentry. When Crisp and Gentry were ready to play, Beane waived Fuld, and the Twins picked him up.
And now Crisp and Gentry are hurt again, and the A's plan to fill left field after trading away Yoenis Cespedes doesn't involve defensive whizzes, and Beane needed somebody who can handle center field and come off the bench to catch a fly ball in left.
So he surrendered a legitimate major league starter (Milone) to get Fuld back after giving him away.
Kennys Vargas
The Twins called Vargas up from Double A to fill Fuld's roster spot. They are not comparable talents; Fuld is a 32-year-old speedy slap-hitting outfielder, Vargas a lumbering 23-year-old DH-first baseman with bigtime power.
Vargas' solid numbers at new Britain were fueled by a monster month of May; he endured a stiff slump in July. I doubt he's going to shine in this trial.
But I have no problem with letting him try. The at-bats he gets will be taken from the likes of Chris Collabello, Chris Parmelee and Josh Willingham, none of whom are prominent in the Twins future plans. Vargas might be.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Demoting Pinto
The Twins played a night game Tuesday; Kurt Suzuki caught. They played a game about 13 hours later; Suzuki caught again.
When the No. 1 catcher catches a day game after a night game, it's a serious sign that the manager isn't enthused about his No. 2 catcher.
The Twins announced after Wednesday's game that they were demoting Josmil Pinto. A corresponding move will be made Friday (saving a day of service time/major league pay). Presumably the corresponding move will be bringing up Eric Fryer, since Chris Herrmann has been out of action for about a week.
This move was pretty much inevitable with the signing of Kendrys Morales. In April, Pinto was essentially the regular designated hitter. His at-bats in that role dried up when the Twins demoted Herrmann, who never actually caught an inning for the Twins but still served as a security blanket. Without regular at-bats, Pinto's hitting tailed off in his sporadic starts. Worse for his chances of remaining on the big league roster, his defensive shortcomings became ever more apparent.
I argued at one point that restoring a third catcher would be worthwhile if it got Pinto back into the DH role. That proposition is now moot; Morales is the DH.
I'm not sure that a Triple A stint is going to do much for Pinto as a receiver. It seems likely Terry Steinbach, as a catching instructor, is better than the Rochester staff. But then, I suspect that if Pinto hasn't mastered the intricacies of catching by now, in his ninth season of pro ball, it may not happen. Still, a steady dose of playing time might get Pinto's bat going again.
Right now, it's difficult to blame Ron Gardenhire for leaning on Suzuki. He's not only superior defensively to Pinto, he's been surprisingly productive as a hitter.
At some point, however, Suzuki is likely to stop hitting .300. When that slump comes, it would be nice to have Pinto ready to hit again. At this point, he's a bit of a mess at the plate and behind it.
When the No. 1 catcher catches a day game after a night game, it's a serious sign that the manager isn't enthused about his No. 2 catcher.
The Twins announced after Wednesday's game that they were demoting Josmil Pinto. A corresponding move will be made Friday (saving a day of service time/major league pay). Presumably the corresponding move will be bringing up Eric Fryer, since Chris Herrmann has been out of action for about a week.
This move was pretty much inevitable with the signing of Kendrys Morales. In April, Pinto was essentially the regular designated hitter. His at-bats in that role dried up when the Twins demoted Herrmann, who never actually caught an inning for the Twins but still served as a security blanket. Without regular at-bats, Pinto's hitting tailed off in his sporadic starts. Worse for his chances of remaining on the big league roster, his defensive shortcomings became ever more apparent.
I argued at one point that restoring a third catcher would be worthwhile if it got Pinto back into the DH role. That proposition is now moot; Morales is the DH.
I'm not sure that a Triple A stint is going to do much for Pinto as a receiver. It seems likely Terry Steinbach, as a catching instructor, is better than the Rochester staff. But then, I suspect that if Pinto hasn't mastered the intricacies of catching by now, in his ninth season of pro ball, it may not happen. Still, a steady dose of playing time might get Pinto's bat going again.
Right now, it's difficult to blame Ron Gardenhire for leaning on Suzuki. He's not only superior defensively to Pinto, he's been surprisingly productive as a hitter.
At some point, however, Suzuki is likely to stop hitting .300. When that slump comes, it would be nice to have Pinto ready to hit again. At this point, he's a bit of a mess at the plate and behind it.
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