Showing posts with label Alex Presley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Presley. Show all posts

Monday, April 21, 2014

Adding Sam Fuld

Sam Fuld: Former Cub, former Ray,
former A and now current Twin.
The Twins on Sunday picked up outfielder Sam Fuld on waivers and designated outfielder Darin Mastroianni for assignment.

This is swapping out marginal outfielders. Mastroianni had gone 0-for-11 (with one walk and five strikeouts) since his recall and has a major league career average of .220 in 241 at-bats; Fuld was hitting an even .200 when Oakland designated him for assignment and has a major league career average of .233.

The move raised immediate speculation about the implications for Aaron Hicks, the Twins regular center fielder. Hicks, a switch hitter, is much better from the right side. Fuld, a lefty, makes a natural platoon partner should the Twins be so inclined. (Mastroianni, a righty, didn't fit that role.)

But as I've noted repeatedly, Ron Gardenhire is not a platoon-oriented manager. And even beyond managerial aversion to platooning, I doubt that Hicks' development will be enhanced if he's dropped into a platoon role at age 24.

The next good Twins team will have Byron Buxton in center, not Hicks. If Hicks is a regular on that team, it will be as a corner outfielder, and he'll need to hit a lot more than he has to hold that kind of role. Sitting him against righties isn't going to help that cause.

For what it's worth -- and it's not much -- Fuld in his major league career has actually hit better against lefties than against righties.

Meanwhile, we are treated to more evidence that Gardenhire's managerial skills don't necessarily include talent evaluation. Fuld, he said after Sunday's game, is "a leadoff type." No, he isn't. He can steal a base, yes, but he has a well-below average career on-base percentage (.312). He's a bottom-of-the-order type. He may wind up hitting leadoff for lack of a real leadoff hitter, but he is NOT a leadoff type. Neither is Brian Dozier, for that matter.

Another interesting aspect (at least to me) in this move is the sequence that began late in spring training, when the Twins lost Alex Presley on waivers in order to keep Jason Bartlett. Now Bartlett is unofficially retired (he remained on the 40-man roster as of Sunday) and the Twins have scooped up another left-handed reserve outfielder, which is what Presley is.

I'm confident that Presley is a better hitter than Fuld, but Fuld is a superior defensive player and baserunner. Which is the better player? I'd say it depends on what the team needs from the bench. Considering the defensive deficiencies of the Minnesota outfield (particularly in the corners), Fuld may indeed be a more useful piece for this team.


Friday, March 28, 2014

Washed up on the bench

This catch (on March 18) near the
center field fence apparently convinced
Ron Gardenhire that career shortstop
Jason Bartlett can handle center field.
The Twins made three serious cuts Thursday. There's still one more to come — extra catcher Dan Rohlfing remains in camp — and the very real possibility that they'll pick up somebody on waivers, but they've essentially pared down to the Opening Day roster.

And what an odd bench this figures to be.

The Twins lost outfielder Alex Presley on waivers to the Houston Astros. They also saw first baseman-outfielder Chris Parmelee and left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond clear waivers.

The resulting bench: catcher Josmil Pinto; first baseman Chris Colabello; infielder Eduardo Escobar; and infielder Jason Bartlett.

There is no true fourth outfielder there. There are two shortstops, in Escobar and Bartlett, who are supposed to be "super utility men," although there's no real reason to believe either can hit enough to play. There are two right-handed bats of limited defensive value in Pinto and Colabello.

Is there a purpose to having a bench player who fits the traditional fourth outfielder role? Considering the extreme defensive limitations of the trio who figure to get the bulk of the playing time in the outfield corners (Josh Willingham, Oswaldo Arcia and Jason Kubel), having somebody who can pinch run and then track down a fly ball late in games might be handy.

The idea seems to be that Bartlett and Escobar can handle those chores. I know that Bartlett made a catch in center (photo above) earlier this month that drew a lot of comment at the time, with manager Ron Gardenhire sounding impressed, but I'm less than completely sold.

What I call The Cuddyer Principle holds that any right-handed major leaguer can at least pass at any non-battery position for a while without it being painfully obvious that he doesn't belong there. Gardenhire, I think, is proposing The Bartlett Corollary to The Cuddyer Principle: If you can play shortstop in the majors, you can play any position well. We'll see if Gardy actually uses one of those extra shortstops as a defensive sub in left or right.

Another thing to watch for is if Colabello has a role other than pinch-hitting. Gardenhire is platoon-adverse, but Kubel has never really hit left-handed pitching and is hardly likely to start now. Colabello makes the most sense on the roster as a DH against lefties.

The Twins will face one of the league's tougher lefties, Chris Sale, in the opener Monday in Chicago. Colabello should be in the lineup — and Kubel on the bench — against Sale. But that's exactly the kind of matchup move Gardenhire has habitually avoided.

Benches are, of course, made up of flawed players. Nobody's so deep that a Willie Mays winds up as the fourth outfielder or Derek Jeter as a utility infielder. I didn't expect the Twins to cut Presley or Parmelee, much less both, but in the abstract, I don't quarrel with either move; neither player figures to be a great loss.

The real issue is that the regular lineup figures to be so flawed, that there's plenty of room for aggressive bench use. Is this a bench Gardenhire will use? Given Gardenhire's established preferences, I'm not sure there IS a bench he'll use.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Eye on 2014: Center field

Aaron Hicks had some moments of athletic
brilliance in 2013, but the year as a whole was
a disaster for the rookie.
There will be two kinds of center fielders in the Twins spring training camp.

One kind is Bryon Buxton. The other kind are the placeholders, the ones whose longer term purpose is as bench guys or as a marginal corner outfielder.

The placeholder candidates for center field are Alex Presley, Aaron Hicks and, although he's not now on the 40-man roster, Darin Mastroianni.

A recent SB Nation piece — a real hype-feeder — suggests that Buxton could, right now, hit .260 in the majors, steal 30 bases and play Gold-Glove level defense. I am quite certain of the latter and regard the other two assertions as genuinely possible. And if those three projections are accurate, Buxton would be the best center fielder for 2014 the Twins have.

Even if true, that doesn't mean he should get the job. The problem, of course, is service time. Bring Buxton up now, and the service time clock starts ticking while he's still developing. Another year of seasoning and growth means that the Twins will get more bang for their buck when he arrives. Patience is not an easy sell, but it's still the wiser course.

Realistically, the spring battle is between Presley and Hicks. Hicks has the higher ceiling, but the mystery is: After last season's debacle, it's difficult to see what he can do in spring training to win the job.

Remember, Hicks had a sensational spring last year. Then the season started, and he. Didn't. Hit. And his game didn't get any better when the Twins sent him to Triple A. Even if he has a sensational spring this year, why would we buy into it?

Hicks has the higher ceiling, Presley the higher floor. My guess is that Presley will get the center field job to open the season. He'll hit leadoff, provide an empty batting average and mediocre defense and be easily shoved aside when the time comes for Buxton. Hicks should go to Triple A and earn his next shot.

Presley's role on a good team, at most, would be as a fourth or fifth outfielder, a bench guy. Mastroianni has the same ceiling, but at this point has to demonstrate that last season's ankle injuries haven't robbed him of his speed. Hicks could be, should be, a regular center fielder somewhere someday, but it won't be in Minnesota. He'll have to hit better than he has to be a center fielder, and a whole lot better to be a corner outfielder.


Monday, December 23, 2013

Alex Presley and the stolen base

Alex Presley hit .283 for the Twins in September, but
he was an ineffective base stealer.
As a team, the 2013 Twins ran the bases well. They stole bases terribly.

Those assertions are supported by the baserunning stats in the 2014 Bill James Handbook.

Baseball Info Systems credits the Twins with a gain of 44 bases on baserunning. The formula, which excludes steals, encompasses extra bases on hits and fly balls and subtracts for baserunning outs. The Twins' 44 bases was third highest in the majors (behind only Tampa Bay and Oakland).

But basestealing? That was another matter. BIS has the Twins a -14 on steals. Only Arizona fared worse than Minnesota at stealing.

A fair chunk of Twins deficit is likely charged to Alex Presley, who came to the Twins from Pittsburgh in the Justin Morneau trade. Presley played center and led off pretty much every day in September, and he was 1-for-4 in steal attempts. He was 0-for-1 with the Pirates, and BIS has him as a -7 as a basestealer.

As a long-ago sportswriter quipped about a Brooklyn Dodger who similarly couldn't steal bases: There was larceny in his heart, but his feet were honest.

Were I running the Twins, I would be planning on a Presley-Darin Mastroianni platoon in center to open 2014. But I would be very wary of trying to steal bases, at least with Presley.

Presley seems to have the Greg Gagne basestealing glitch. Gagne, the Twins shortstop for their two World Series teams, was a fast man and a good baserunner, but he was simply unable to read pitchers to get the jump to steal. We frequently hear coaches assert that so-and-so will be a good basestealer when he learns to read pitchers, but it really appears to be something that can't be taught.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Alex Presley and the stolen base

Alex Presley has been a fixture in center field since
joining the Twins in the Justin Morneau trade.
Alex Presley went 1-for-5 Friday night, which lowered his batting average with the Twins to .348. OK, it's just 23 official at-bats, and if he were really that good he would have forced his way into the Pirates lineup years ago, but his minor league numbers suggest that he might be a reasonable major league leadoff hitter.

This is the optimistic case for Presley: He gets on base, or at least he has in the high minors. (His on-base percentages in A ball are markedly lower than in Double A or Triple A). He doesn't have the power one wants from a corner outfielder, and he's been stuck behind Andrew McCutcheon for the Pirates center field job, and (again, the optimistic case) that's why he is 28 and hasn't cracked a regular lineup.

Optimism aside, Presley is viewed more as a reserve outfielder than as a possible quality regular. We saw an example Friday of why he's not destined to be a quality leadoff hitter.

Presley was on first base with one out in the ninth inning with Ryan Doumit pinch-hitting and the Twins down a run. When the count went to 3-2, Ron Gardenhire had Presley go. Doumit struck out, and Presley was thrown out easily.

Thrown out, it should be noted, by J.P. Arencibia, who came into the game, according to Baseball Reference, having thrown out just 24 percent of base stealers. Of the 17 qualifying catchers, Arencibia ranked 14th in throwing out base stealers.

Presley is 0-for-3 as a base stealer since joining the Twins. He was 0-for-1 with Pittsburgh. His minor league track record as a base stealer is unimpressive.

Some players are fast but simply can't get the jumps needed to steal bases effectively. Presley appears to be one such.

Monday, September 2, 2013

The minor league vets

Alex Presley, acquired from Pittsburgh for Justin Morneau,
had three singles in his Twins debut.
The Twins' starting lineup Sunday had just one player (Brian Dozier) who hadn't seen some time in the International League this year. (Josh Willingham and Trevor Plouffe were there on rehab assignments.)

And yet it wasn't a truly young lineup. It was mainly minor league veterans.

Rookie catcher Josmil Pinto had two
hits in his major league debut, including
an RBI double in his second at-bat.
The lineup by ages and minor league plate appearances:

Alex Presley, 28, 3,096
Darin Mastroianni, 28, 2,599
Dozier, 26, 1,613
Willingham, 34, 2,242
Plouffe, 27, 3,564
Chris Colabello, 29, 3,474
Clint Thomas, 29, 3,098
Josmil Pinto, 24, 2,396
Doug Bernier, 33, 3,815

One player in the lot under age 26, and more than half have more than 3,000 minor league plate appearances.

The future, by and large, is now with this bunch. Remember, 27 is the most common age for peak seasons; 26 and 28 are the next most common. Remember too, major league stars seldom spend much time in the minors.

Don't take the broadcasters seriously when they talk about the youth of the Twins lineup. It will be young when guys like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton crack it. Those guys aren't here yet.

It's really not even an inexperienced lineup. These guys have plenty of experience — most of it in the minors.



Saturday, August 31, 2013

Morneau traded to Pittsburgh

Justin Morneau leaves the Twins having moved ahead of
Tony Oliva on the Minnesota career home run list.
Well, it happened, after all. Justin Morneau -- 2006 MVP, franchise cornerstone and part-time Lake Crystal resident -- was traded Saturday to Pittsburgh for a reserve outfielder (Alex Presley) and a player to be named.

I'll write in more detail about the trade for the Monday print column. For now, I'll just acknowledge mixed feelings about this deal.

The sentimentalist in me, and it's a bigger part of my personality than I care to admit, wanted Morneau to spend his entire career in a Twins uniform. The realist in me recognizes that Morneau is not the hitter he was before the concussions and other injuries and is certain that the next good Twins team will not have Morneau as a key player.

I'm saddened by his departure. I recognize its inevitability, its necessity, even its virtue.

And I hope he helps Pittsburgh win the World Series.