Arbitration domination

As a "modified Type B" free agent, Matt Capps
does not have to be offered arbitration to bring the
Twins a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Wednesday was the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their ranked free agents.

The Twins have three ranked free agents: Michael Cuddyer, a "modified" Type A; Jason Kubel, Type B; and Matt Capps, "modified" Type B. These designations, as I understand it, are useful for this offseason only.

A straight Type A -- Albert Pujols, for example -- offered arbitration will cost a signing team draft picks. Six of the free agents originally listed as Type A -- including Cuddyer -- are now in a new category. If they are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere, the jilted team gets two picks, but the signing team doesn't lose picks.

This figures to greatly enhance interest in Cuddyer. Under last winter's rules, a team signing Cuddyer was essentially trading a high draft pick to the Twins. Now the Twins would still get the picks, but the new team isn't losing anything.

The Twins continue to voice interest in retaining Cuddyer, but this development makes it more likely that he'll sign elsewhere.

The Capps situation is better for the Twins. Capps was originally a Type A, and as with Matt Guerrier last winter, the Twins would probably have declined to offer him arbitration rather than risk having him accept. But the new labor deal decouples arbitration from the five modified Type Bs. The Twins will collect a compensatory pick if Capps signs elsewhere without risking arbitration. (Capps is one of five in the new category.)

Bottom line for the Twins: They offered arbitration to Cuddyer and Kubel, did not to Capps. If all three sign elsewhere, the Twins will reap four extra draft picks in June, giving them six of the first 40 or so picks in the draft.

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The Ryan Doumit signing became official Wednesday.

More pre-draft stuff

Baseball America's final mock draft still has the Twins taking Sean Gilmartin. The commentary says the organization is targeting "strike-throwing lefties" and would prefer Tyler Anderson of Oregon, but they have Anderson going 16th overall (to the Dodgers).

No players from Minnesota are going to be taken tonight (all they're doing today are the first round and the supplemental first round, which is made up of extra picks awarded for lost elite free agents). None of the Minnesota players BA gives scouting reports on are from the Mankato area.

The Twins pick 30th, then pick at 50, 55, 87, 117, 148 and 178, and so on. They got compensation picks for Jesse Crain and Orlando Hudson, because the Twins offered those two arbitration, but not for Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes or Jon Rauch, because they didn't offer them arbitration. And, of course, they re-signed Carl Pavano, so no picks for him.

I said repeatedly last winter that I'd rather have the picks than Pavano, and nothing that has happened this season has changed my mind. I thought not offering arbitration to Guerrier, Fuentes and Rauch was the wisest thing to do, and certainly the lowest risk, and I'm starting to wonder about that judgment, at least in Guerrier's case.

A multi-year contract with a 30-something free agent relief pitcher is a bad bet, but arbitration is a one-year deal. Guerrier landed a three-year deal for $12 million from the Dodgers, and I don't blame the Twins for avoiding that bullet. But they did give Pavano a two-year deal for $16.5 million, and that's a bigger bullet.

The risk in offering arbitration to Guerrier was that he would accept arbitration and wind up awarded a one-year, $5 million deal. That was a real possibility, because as a Type A free agent offered arbitration he would be a very costly signing. The Dodgers probably don't offer him the deal he got if he also cost them their first-round pick tonight.

But if he had accepted, the Twins probably wind up walking away from Pavano, and they wind up with (a) less money being paid out; (b) a rotation spot for Kevin Slowey and (c) an established, reliable middle reliever. And if Pavano signed elsewhere, the Twins would have a pick from his departure, and if Guerrier HAD signed elsewhere, the Twins would have two picks from HIS departure.

But they didn't want to take the chance of both accepting. I believe they also expected Slowey would fit neatly into Guerrier's old role. That. obviously, didn't happen

I have the evening off, so I will monitor the draft and post a quick comment on whoever the Twins select tonight.

The negative as a positive

The Twins got exactly what they bargained for/expected from the players' free-agent arbitration deadline: Nothing. Three noes. All negative, which is a good thing.

It remains possible for the Twins to sign any of the three players who declined arbitration Tuesday (Jesse Crain, Orlando Hudson and Carl Pavano) -- or, for that matter, their other seven free agents to whom the organization did not offer arbitration. Possible but unlikely: the Twins are not believed to have interest in bringing Hudson back, even on a one-year deal, and Pavano and Crain have no shortage of suitors.

The 'stache may not be
trash, but the
Twins should allow
Carl Pavano to sign
elsewhere. 

Me, I don't expect (or want) Pavano back, certainly not on a three-year deal. I'd rather give the scouting department the extra draft picks to play with. Crain is looking for a chance to close and a chance to cash in; I can see him and the Twins reuniting later this winter if things don't fall the way he hopes, but really -- middle relievers are highly replaceable, and good organizations shouldn't be paying three relief pitchers upwards of $6 million each.

Bottom line: If the Twins keep any of those three, it will be on terms the Twins are willing to live with, and if they don't, they get extra draft picks.

Thursday is a deadline with perhaps more intrigue. That's tender day, the day when teams must offer contracts to their non-free agent players. For those players who aren't arbitration eligible, that's a simple matter; they get basically the minimum. It can be a tougher call on the likes of J.J. Hardy and Glen Perkins, but the Twins aren't likely to cut any of their arbitration-eligibles loose.

Hardy in particular. Even if the Twins aren't as enamored with him as the statheads are. the shortstop market is ... let's call it trade friendly. Miguel Tejada signed Tuesday with San Francisco for one year, $6.5 million; that's roughly what Hardy is projected to receive through arbitration, and Tejada isn't as good right now as Hardy. If only as a sign-and-trade, Hardy figures to still have value for the Twins.

Arbitration decision and prospect rankings

Today was the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their Type A and B free agents. Joe Christensen reports that the Twins offered arbitration to Jesse Crain, Carl Pavano and Orlando Hudson.

Jon Rauch won't bring
the Twins a draft pick
if he signs with another
team this winter.

The next deadline in the process is Nov. 30, when those three have to decide if they accept. If they do, they're off the free agent market. They can either reach an agreement with the Twins or let an arbitrator pick their salary for 2011. If they don't accept, they remain free agents, and if/when they sign with somebody else, the Twins will get draft pick compensation.

The Twins will not get picks if/when Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier and/or Brian Fuentes sign elsewhere, because those three were not offered arbitration.

I expect the three they offered arbitration to sign elsewhere, and I suspect that's the Twins expectation also. They were safe offers -- the other three might well have decided that they'd do better with arbitration than in the marketplace.

Considering how poorly Hudson has fared in the marketplace the past two years, it's still possible he'd accept arbitration. I think the Twins would rather he didn't.
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Baseball America today released its Twins Top 10 prospect list. Kyle Gibson tops the list. Aaron Hicks dropped from No. 1, where he's been the past two winters, to No. 2.

There's a lot of good stuff behind the paywall. One tidbit I picked up from the chat with John Manuel, BA's co-editor-in-chief and the man behind the Twins list, is that Miguel Sano, the Twins' Domincan superprospect, is now 230 pounds. Still a teen, but he's definitely outgrown shortstop -- which was always deemed likely -- and may be outgrowing third base as well.

Free agent arbitration: Carl Pavano

2011 age: 35

Free agent classification: Type A

2010 basic stats: 17-11, 3.75 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $7 million

The Outsider's verdict: Yes

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The free agent field for starting pitchers this offseason can be divided into two parts. There's Cliff Lee, and then there's everybody else.

Carl Pavano's
spring-training mug
doesn't display the
moustache that made
him a folk hero in 2010.

Carl Pavano might be the most accomplished pitcher in the second group, but that doesn't mean there ought to be great demand for his services.

The ideal outcome here for the Twins would be for somebody else to step up with the multi-year deal Pavano sought last winter and concluded wasn't forthcoming.

In 2009, Pavano struck out 6.6 men per nine innings. In 2010, his K-rate fell to 4.8. That's a red flag. It tells us his arrow is pointing down.

A three-year deal at $10 million at year -- and that's the kind of figure that's been tossed about -- with a 35-year-old with his injury history and a declining K-rate is bad thinking.

The risk of offering arbitration here, especially considering that most teams that would consider signing such a veteran would have to surrender their first-round draft pick, is that Pavano could reach the same conclusion he reached last winter and accept it. I suspect that somebody is going to take the 17 wins and 3.75 ERA more seriously than the strikeout rate and outbid the Twins for him.

Which would be fine with me. I'd rather see the Twins with an extra draft pick next June than Pavano in the rotation.

Free agent arbitration: Matt Guerrier

2011 age: 32 (turns 33 in August)

Free agent classification: Type A

2010 basic stats: 5-7, 1 save, 3.17 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $3.15 million

The Outsider's verdict: No

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The primary problem with offering arbitration to Matt Guerrier is in the second line above: His status as a Type A free agent.

Matt Guerrier has risen
from mop-up man to
primary set-up man
in seven seasons with
the Twins.

It means that, if the Twins offer arbitration, a team that signs Guerrier is likely to lose its first-round pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's not the case for a bad team, but bad teams aren't likely to pursue a 30-something middle reliever, and Guerrier isn't likely to be eager to sign with a non-contender. He's facing the same dilemma that has confronted the likes of Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson: The low guys on the Type A totem pole find that their status weakens their negotiating position.

If offered arbitration, Guerrier is likely to accept; and the Twins may not want to fit his likely award into their budget.

He's had a nice run with the Twins. Twice he's led the league in appearances. His ERA has been under 3.40 in every full season but one.

Not bad for a guy the Twins plucked from the waiver wire when the Pittsburgh Pirates decided he wasn't worthy of a spot on their 40-man roster.

Free agent arbitration: Jesse Crain

2011 age: 29 (turns 30 in July)

Free agent classification: Type B

2010 basic stats: 1-1, 1 save, 3.04 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $2 million

The Outsider's verdict: Yes

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Jesse Crain has been the very image of inconsistency in his career. In April and May of the past season,he allowed 13 earned runs (and 16 total) in 22 innings -- an ERA of 5.32. He was charged with just 10 earned runs the rest of the season.

Jesse Crain has pitched
in 376 games for
the Twins in his career.

He's done this before. In 2009, he was awful through July (and was briefly shipped to the minors); then he allowed nothing in September (13.1 innings, five hits, no runs). In 2008, he had three good months, three bad months. And so on and so forth.

When he's good he's very good, and when he's bad he's horrid. A radio wit dubbed him "Crain Wreck," and he's had enough disasters for the derisive nickname to stick.

Still, he was Ron Gardenhire's go-to-guy in the 'pen down the stretch. And he's the most likely of the Twins' crop of free agent middle relievers to be offered arbitration.

He's not starting from too high a base; he deserves the raise arbitration is designed to award; and there will be suitors. The risk in offering arbitration is minimal.

He indicated to MLB.com's Kelly Theiser that he's interested in having a chance to close. That probably isn't on the horizon in Minnesota; the Twins went through three closers from the start of spring training and never appeared to consider putting Crain in the ninth inning role.

Closing, of course, is where the money is for a relief pitcher, and this offseason might be Crain's best chance to cash in.

Free agent arbitration: Brian Fuentes

2011 age: 35 (turns 36 in August)

Free agent classification: Type B

2010 basic stats: 4-1, 24 saves, 2.81 ERA (Full stats here)

2010 salary: $9 million

The Outsider's verdict: No

In less than two full seasons as the Angels closer before
being traded to the Twins, Brian Fuentes had 71 saves
and an ERA of 3.76.

Diminished role should equal a diminished salary, and that's the basic argument against offering arbitration to Brian Fuentes.

Fuentes has been paid the past two seasons as a top-flight closer. In truth, he was probably never at that level despite leading baseball in saves in 2009, and he certainly isn't now.

He's still an effective pitcher -- sure death on left-handed hitters (.128/.222/.149 in 2010) but a bit home-run prone versus righties. Depending on his bullpen mates, he can be a second-tier closer, a top-flight set-up man or an overqualified LOOGY. None of those roles is worthy of $9 million a year.

If the Twins offer arbitration and he accepts, the lowest offer the team can make is a 20 percent cut, or $7.2 million. That might be justifiable in their salary scale if he's the closer, but that job, at least in theory, still belongs to the rehabbing Joe Nathan.

The Twins have, in the past, effectively capped what they'll pay set-up men at around $3 million. Even if that rises this offseason, it's not going to double.

They could offer arbitration it they were sure that somebody else is going to purse Fuentes as a closer, but that's hardly a certainty. The market is unlikely to put as high a price tag on the short-arming southpaw as arbitration is likely to.

Free agent arbitration: Jon Rauch

Age in 2011: 33

Free agent classification: Type B.

Basic stats: 3-1, 21 saves, 3.12 ERA (Full stats here.)

2010 salary: $2.9 million

The Outsider's verdict: No

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Jon Rauch in his Twins
tenure: 8-2 with 21 saves
and a 2.82 ERA.

Rauch had two 2010 seasons: the part in which he had the glory job of the closer, and the part in which he was the No. 3 (or lower) set-up man. Once the Twins traded for Matt Capps, Rauch was not only demoted from the ninth inning role, he also ranked below Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain in the setup hierarchy, which is why he had just two holds.

If this were, say 10 years ago, it's very likely that somebody would be sufficiently impressed by the 21 in his saves column to make a big offer this winter. Oh boy, a proven closer! But today, most general managers recognize the fallacy in using a "decisions" stat to evaluate pitching talent.

Rauch has value as a set-up man, as bullpen depth. That is likely to be how the market treats him as a free agent. There's too much risk here that arbitration will value him as a "proven closer." The Twins will, and should, forego the reward of the draft pick and duck the risk that he'll accept arbitration.