Ryan LaMarre and the opening roster

The Twins played their final exhibition of 2018 on Tuesday, beating the Washington Nationals in D.C. Of more importance, they set -- presumably -- their roster for opening day on Thursday.

Phil Hughes went on the disabled list with his strained oblique. This allowed both Gabriel Moya and Rule 5 pick Tyler Kinley to make the roster. There seems to be some skepticism on Twins twitter about the validity of Hughes' injury, in no small part because he's sidelined for a period in which the Twins don't need a fifth starter. I'll deploy my skepticism for people who assume that an athlete is faking an injury.

Anyway, that was one of the final decisions. Another, as noted here Monday, wasn't much of a decision. Kennys Vargas was indeed put back of waivers as soon as the Twins reclaimed him. This time he cleared, and the Twins outrighted him to Triple A. This isn't good for Vargas, who would probably benefit from a new organization, but there are 30 big-league teams and none of them want to use a 25-man roster spot on him.

The final decision may not be fully decided. The Twins optioned out Zack Granite, which presumably means Ryan LaMarre will be on the 25-man roster as a reserve outfielder.

"Presumably" because

• the Twins haven't officially put him on the 40-man and 25-man rosters and
• they are presumably aware that the Los Angeles Dodgers designated Trayce Thompson for assignment on Tuesday, and there may well be other right-handed hitting outfielders available this week.

LaMarre, 29, had a great spring training; he hit .475/.500/.775 and looked good at all three outfield positions. There is nothing more he could have done in Florida to win a roster spot.

The problem for LaMarre is his track record. Not so much his .054 career major league batting average; that's only 40 plate appearances and is meaningless. Nobody's as good as his spring training stats, and nobody's as bad as his major league numbers.

It's what he's shown in the upper minors in a variety of organizations. LaMarre has more than 950 PA in Triple A and has compiled an OPS at that level of .723, which isn't that impressive.

LaMarre hits right-handed, and as I've been noting all spring, that fits the Twins' specific roster needs better than the lefty bat of Granite. But Granite is the better player; if the Twins should need somebody to play everyday for a couple weeks or more, Granite is a better choice. LaMarre makes the team for a specific role -- if he indeed makes the team. That has yet to fully play out.

Twins in position for opener

Carlos Quentin will
not be on the Opening
Day roster.

Shortly after I published Saturday's post, the Twins announced the rest of their position player cuts.

The result is a 13-man group that offers few if any surprises. The two bench jobs that were arguably in dispute went to the two younger, out-of-options guys, Oswaldo Arcia and Danny Santana.

The Twins granted Carlos Quentin a few days to examine his options.  The veteran non-roster invitee had an impressive spring, but four-man benches are tough to crack if all one has to offer is a bat. Quentin was never a good defensive outfielder when he was young; now he's 33 and has had repeated leg injuries. Arcia is said to be a better defensive outfielder now than in previous years (he's taken some weight off), he's left-handed and he is almost a decade younger. Plus, as noted, he's out of options.

So we can assume Quentin's agent is calling a few clubs that might be in need of a pinch hit specialist or even a designated hitter, but my guess is that those few jobs are already filled. If somehow there is a major-league job out there for Quentin, I presume the Twins will release Q (why else would they let him look?). But I doubt that will be necessary.

The pitching staff won't be set until the fifth starter job is settled in the next couple of days. I devoted the Monday print column to the Tyler Duffey vs Ricky Nolasco competition for that job. I go back and forth on this one, really. I can defend going with either pitcher in the rotation.

What I can't defend, and hope the Twins don't try to use as a rationale, is basing the decision on spring training stats. Neither will have much more than a dozen Grapefruit League innings; that wouldn't be enough to draw a statistical conclusion on in regular season play, much less March.

Anyway: If Nolasco makes the rotation, Duffey goes to Rochester and there's a extra bullpen job available. If Duffey is the fifth piece of the rotation, either Nolasco goes to the 'pen (probable) or gets traded (less likely). If traded, there is, again, a bullpen spot available; if not, somebody else gets squeezed out.

First cuts, part two

Minnesota product
Mike Strong was the
closest thing to a
surprise in the first
round of cuts.

The Twins made their first round of camp cuts in two parts. Sunday afternoon they reassigned five non-roster invitees to minor league camp; Monday morning they optioned out seven players who are on the 40-man roster. There may be a practical reason for the reassignments in one wave and the options in the other, but I can't fathom what it would be, and it doesn't really matter.

As should be expected in the early cuts, the players sent to the minor league camp are basically guys who didn't have a realistic chance of making the 25-man roster. RHP Yoman Landa and LPH Randy Rosario haven't pitched above low A ball. LHP Mason Melotakis is being handled gingerly in the wake of his October 2014 Tommy John surgery. OF Adam Brett Walker is having his throwing mechanics overhauled. LHP Pat Dean figures to be in the rotation for Triple A Rochester and needs to get innings. RHP J.T. Chargois was no surprise if only because the bullpen has its full complement of right-handed short men, with Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien and (presumably) Trevor May.

That leaves LHP Mike Strong, who I thought might get a longer look as a second lefty in the bullpen. He was the first serious LOOGY candidate out, though. Still around: NRIs Fernando Abad, Buddy Boshers, Dan Runzler and Aaron Thompson and roster guys Ryan O'Rourke and Taylor Rogers. Rogers and Abad are the most likely finalists, although I'm picking up good vibrations on Runzler.

Also still around, apparently because pitching coach Neil Allen wanted to keep him for a while yet, is Nick Burdi. By implication, the plan had been to send him out in this wave. He faces the same numbers problem Chargois did, and I don't think he's going to escape the second round of cuts.

So 12 players are gone, with 52 still in major league camp. They basically have to cut more than an entire active roster, so there are plenty of moves to come. A lot of them are pretty obvious as well -- there are still seven catchers in camp -- but some are going to take some thought.

12 pitchers and Santanas in waiting

Michael Tonkin
is back on the
Rochester shuttle.

The Twins demoted relief pitcher Michael Tonkin after Wednesday's game and will bring up an additional hitter before resuming play Friday in Milwaukee. Six games in National League parks, which means six games without the DH, which means more pinch-hitters are likely to be needed.

This is the first time in a month or so that the Twins have pared the pitching staff down to 12 arms. Beleaguered lefties Brian Duensing (8.22 ERA for the season) and Aaron Thompson (5.40) remain, although to what purpose is uncertain, Duensing hasn't been used in a win since June 4. Thompson's June ERA is 15.42, and six of the last eight men to face him have gotten hits or walks.

It may be that the hitter the Twins bring up today will go back down when Ervin Santana comes off his suspension nine games from now, but that would mean not only returning to a 13-man staff (plausible) but moving one of the current starters to the bullpen (less so).

But that's a problem to solve next week. Today the Twins have to settle on a bat to bring up, and it will presumably be somebody already on the 40-man roster. While they have an open slot on the 40, that's earmarked for Santana.

Position players on the 40 but not now on the 25-man roster:

Oswaldo Arcia, Doug Bernier, Aaron Hicks (DL), Max Kepler, Josmil Pinto, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Danny Santana.

Pinto would be a reasonable pinch-hitter choice, but as far as I know he's still sidelined by his concussion issues. Arcia, after 22 games in Rochester, is hitting .192/.233/.295; he's not coming up. Kepler and Sano, both in Double A, have strong call-up cases, but I don't think the Twins are bringing either up for a reserve role. Hicks is to start a rehab assignment in Triple A Friday and still has a few days he has to spend on the DL anyway.

My guess: Santana. He played a game in the outfield the other day for Rochester, which might mean something in this context. He's hitting .308/.343/.492. If Paul Molitor sticks him back at shortstop, Eduardo Nunez either plays outfield or becomes a pinch hit option. The same set of possibilities exist for Polanco or Bernier, but Santana is probably higher on the totem pole than either of them.

The opening roster

Josmil Pinto lost out
on the backup catcher
job to Chris Herrmann,
at least for now.

The Twins effectively settled their Opening Day roster Thursday:

• Outfielder Shane Robinson was offically added to the 40-man roster;
• Catcher Josmil Pinto was optioned to Triple-A;
• Catcher Eric Fryer was reassigned to Triple A, and fellow non-roster invitee infielder Doug Bernier was told he will be after the exhibition schedule is over.

In theory, I would have preferred to see Pinto on the roster than Eduardo Nunez, but there are variables that I don't have a handle on: the effects of Pinto's concussion, how comfortable Paul Molitor is with the idea of using Eduardo Escobar as a part-time outfielder, how competent Pinto currently is behind the plate.

Here's how Escobar figures into this: The Twins default starting outfield figures to be Oswaldo Arcia in left. the Jordan Schafer-Robinson platoon in center and Torii Hunter in right. (Those four names are also the four "true" outfielders on the roster.) The Twins figure to face Chris Sale, very good lefty, a week from Saturday. Hunter and Robinson are right-handed; Arcia and Schafer are left-handed. If Molitor wants to get both the lefties out of the lineup against Sale, a non-outfielder has to play left. That won't be backup catcher Chris Herrmann, who is a decent enough outfielder, because he's left-handed too. Escobar is a switch-hitter, Nunez hits right, so either fits that part of the bill. But which, if either, do you really want in the outfield?

The presence of Kennys Vargas also works against Pinto, because Vargas ties up the DH spot. I don't know that Vargas is really a better hitter than Pinto, but the Twins are operating on that basis.To get at-bats in the majors, Pinto has to catch, and while he is said to have improved behind the plate, he's probably still not good.

The current issue of Baseball America, in that light, has a interesting piece about the new era of catcher instruction, with the use of advanced stats to measure pitch framing and high-end pitching machines to provide receiving reps on major-league quality pitches. (I'd link to the piece, but it's subscriber-only.) The story is in the context of the Cubs' efforts to rebuild Kyle Schwarber, an outstanding hitting prospect whose catching skills (or lack of same) may eventually force him to a different position. I don't know if the Twins are doing the same things with Pinto. I hope they are.

Roster moves and Pavano speculation

The Twins on Friday added four players to the 40-man roster, which now stands at 38. This gives them room to sign a couple of free agents (remember, their 10 free agents are not on the 40) or make a Rule 5 pick, but my guess is that they won't try the latter.

None of the four -- one pitcher, two outfielders and a first basemn/outfielder -- are particularly likely to make the 25-man roster out of spring training, or even during the season. Chris Parmalee, former first-round pick, is long-term Justin Morneau insurance at first base, but the Twins have signed minor-league vet Justin Huber to a minor league deal, and Huber is the better immediate bet if Morneau's return stalls this spring. (The even better immediate bet is the Michael Cuddyer-at-first routine, but as the roster stands that would leave a hole at DH.)

Seth Stohs is at least mildly surprised that relief prospect Kyle Waldrop didn't get added, but that's been in the cards since Waldrop signed a minor-league deal earlier this month. He may be a Rule 5 draft target next month.

The free-agent market at this point is rather frozen as we await the deadline for offering arbitration; I believe that's Tuesday. Leaving two open spaces on the 40 doesn't necessarily limit the Twins to two arbitration offers to free agents, but if they offer to three and all three accept, they'll have to get rid of somebody.

But while few are signing, there's no shortage of speculation, and Carl Pavano is prominent in said speculation.

Here's some speculation that points to him staying with the Twins. Here's some that suggests that the Brewers and Nationals are better bets to land him. Milwaukee seems more plausible than Washington; I can't imagine how a mid-30s middle-of-the-rotation guy fits in a building process.The Brewers, on the other hand, are capable of contending if they can find a way to get some outs. Pavano makes sense for them, at least in the short term.

And the short term is the only term that makes sense with Pavano for anybody. My view is unchanged: If it's going to take a multi-year deal to retain him, the Twins should wish him well and walk away.

Something may happen with Pavano sooner rather than later. Normally the second and third best pitchers on the market are seen as reasonable consolation prizes for the suitors for the No. 1 free agent arm, but there's a big gap between Cliff Lee and the rest of the field, and we can be pretty sure the Yankees aren't turning to Pavano if Lee decides to stay closer to his Arkansas home. There's not a lot of reason for Pavano to stall.

Twins roster issues

It's unclear at this point how long Joe Mauer's going to be out with his bone bruised heel. Ron Gardenhire described it Sunday as more week-to-week than day-to-day, which sounds like disabled list material, but the team website lists May 3 as his possible return date.

That seems overly optimistic, but there's been no move to DL him.

Meanwhile, Pat Neshek's on the DL -- that's the move that cleared a spot for Wilson Ramos -- and Nick Blackburn's on family emergency leave, with Jeff Manship (above) in his place.

The rules for Blackburn's leave say he has to be gone at least three days and no more than seven. So he could miss another start -- that spot in the rotation comes up Thursday against Baltimore -- and Manship would obviously pick that up.

Right now, the Twins have 11 pitchers and 14 position players active. This is not Gardenhire's preferred roster split, and even for those fans who think 12 pitchers are too many, it's not helping the bench either, since Mauer can't play.

I'm guessing that by the time Blackburn has to be reactivated, they'll decide to put Mauer on the DL. Then the question will be whether to keep Manship up to serve as a long reliever or return him to Rochester and bring up another guy for Gardenhire's preferred mix-and-match relief strategy.

It probably won't be Jose Mijares, whose possible return is listed on that same webpage as mid-May.

Twins land their infielder

Second baseman Orlando Hudson — four-time Gold Glover, two-time All-Star — agreed to a one-year deal with the Twins late Thursday.

Hudson's 32, and while there is chatter that his play has fallen off since he dislocated his wrist late in the 2008 season, it's difficult to find evidence of that in his stats.

Pondering now the implications for the Twins roster ... Here's a likely default lineup, from which Ron Gardenhire will vary for reasons of injury, slumps, matchups, periodic days off and managerial whim:

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, DH
6. Michael Cuddyer, RF
7. J.J. Hardy, SS
8. Delmon Young, LF
9. Nick Punto, 3B

I can imagine Hardy and Young being transposed. I figure Punto ranks ahead of Brendan Harris because Punto is the better fielder and baserunner and has the better on-base percentage. Harris' one advantage over Punto is power, and we're not talking Jim Thome here.

That's a pretty solid lineup.

The bench, on the other hand:

• Thome, hitting specialist
• reserve catcher (Jose Morales, Drew Butera or Wilson Ramos)
• reserve outfielder (Jason Pridie has the edge) — to be a defensive sub for Young or Kubel, back up Span, to pinch run for Kubel or Thome. Legs and a glove.
• Harris or Punto, whoever isn't playing third

There's no room there for either Alexi Casilla or Matt Tolbert, and both (I believe) are out of options. It's certainly possible that the Twins could slip either through waivers, although I can think of a couple of teams in the Twins division that might be better off with Tolbert in their lineup than with the infielders they currently have.

I rather suspect that Gardenhire would prefer Tolbert to Harris. But Harris has a new two-year contract. And I have difficulty imagining Gardenhire feeling comfortable with Punto or Tolbert in the outfield in anything other than an emergency or a blowout.

A surplus of utility infielders is not normally regarded as the basis from which to make a trade. But if the Twins can move one of those guys — Punto, Harris, Tolbert or Casilla — for a more reliable fourth outfielder, they should.

On the fringe of the roster

If you are addicted to SportsCenter, you know already that today is the start of the free agent season.

Which means that today the likes of Carl Pavano, Orlando Cabrera and Mike Redmond officially dropped off the Twins' 40-man roster.

The Twins added six players to the 40-man roster, which (at least for now) protects them from the Rule V draft next month. They're at 40 now, so if they want to take somebody in the Rule V draft — and they usually do — somebody's got to be cleared off it. And, for that matter, if they sign a free agent, somebody's got to be cleared off it.

Here's the press release by the Twins announcing the moves. Here's the current 40-man roster.

Few of the additions have much chance of setting foot in Target Field in 2010. Danny Valencia is in the third-base mix as of now. Rob Delaney, like Valencia, opened 2009 in Double A and was moved up to Triple A; in his case, however, there doesn't appear to be a job sitting there to be taken. Other than those two, the additions are just creeping into Double A.

Loek Van Mil, the 7-1 pitcher from the Netherlands, is the guy I'm pulling for. I have no idea if he's going to be a successful pitcher, if if he makes it to the Show, he'll be the tallest player in major league history.