BA's top Twins prospects

The issue of Baseball America that showed up in my mailbox Friday includes this winter's top 10 propsects rankings for the AL Central. The Twins rankings are certainly different than last winter's.

Fernando Romero graduated -- he lost his rookie status last season -- so his absence is no surprise. But there are four new names on the list, and Romero was the only graduate. Stephen Gonsalves (No. 4 last year); Nick Gordon (No. 8); and Tyler Jay (No. 10) are all still in the organization, and all slipped out of the top 10.

Added are top draftees Trevor Larnach (No. 5) and Ryan Jeffers (No. 9); trade acquisition Jhoan Duran (No. 7); and international signee Yunior Severino.

I saw Larnach, an outfielder, and Jeffers, a catcher, at Cedar Rapids near the close of the Midwest League regular season. (See comments on Larnach here and on Jeffers here.) Duran, who came from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar deal, eluded me. And Severino, an infielder signed when MLB nullifed a bunch of Atlanta Braves international signings for rule violations, spent the 2018 season in Elizabethton.

There are three pitchers on this list: Brusdar Graterol (No. 3), Duran and Blayne Enlow (No. 8). The writeups describe Graterol's ceiling as that of a rotation-topper, Duran and Enlow as potential mid-rotation starters.

Brent Rooker (No. 6) is the only member of the Top 10 to have reached as high as Double A, so this list is short on immediate help for the major league team.

The list:

1) Royce Lewis, ss
2) Alex Kirilloff, of
3) Brusdar Graterol, rhp
4) Wander Javier, ss
5) Trevor Larnach, of
6) Brent Rooker, of/1b
7) Jhoan Duran, rhp
8) Blayne Enlow. rhp
9) Ryan Jeffers, c
10) Yunior Severino, 2b

Notes, quotes and comment

Remember my (no doubt silly) notion of including catching prospect Mitch Garver in a starting pitcher deal? Much less likely now ...

Source confirms ex-#mntwins catcher Chris Gimenez is signing with #Cubs. I'm told it's a minor-league deal. @ChrisCotillo 1st.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) January 23, 2018

The Twins have signed some other catchers to minor league deals, but Garver is clearly (and correctly) ticketed for the backup role now. Bringing back Gimenez was almost certainly the preferred fallback.

---

Does this imply that the Twins are out on Yu Darvish? I doubt it. The personal connections stuff we've heard about -- Thad Levine in the front office, Gimenez behind the plate -- is nice, but the real reason Darvish is still a free agent some three weeks before pitchers and catchers report is money. Nobody is offering (yet) the years and total he's looking for, and he isn't settling for less (yet).

----

#mntwins lose LHP Bully Bouch (aka Buddy Boshers) on waivers to #Astros. Held lefties to .258 OBP last season. https://t.co/q6idVTJ0mS

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) January 22, 2018

And good for Boshers, who gets to remain on a 40-man roster, at least for a few more days.

Berardino noted later that the last two World Series winners have this offseason claimed lefty relievers off the Twins, the other being Randy Rosario by the Cubs. I think the Twins are more likely to regret losing Rosario than Boshers, but that may well be me being fascinated by bright shiny objects.

The Twins have no shortage of lefty relief possibilities without them.

---

The Twins have five prospects on Baseball America's Top 100 list, released Monday,. Royce Lewis leads the way at No. 24, and the other four (Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier and Stephen Gonsalves) are in the 90s.

Of note: The BA overall list includes Gordon, who was No. 8 on the Twins list compiled by Beradino, and not several guys Beradino had higher.

The BA prospects list

My off-the-top of-my-head ranking of the Twins Top 10 prospects wasn't very good, and it certainly doesn't match Baseball America's:

1) Royce Lewis, shortstop
2) Wander Javier, shortstop
3) Alex Kirilloff, outfield/first base
4) Stephen Gonsalves, left-handed pitcher
5) Brusdar Graterol, right-handed pitcher
6) Fernando Romero, right-handed pitcher
7) Brent Rooker, outfield/first base
8) Nick Gordon, shortstop
9) Blayne Enlow, right-handed pitcher
10) Tyler Jay, left-handed pitcher

Three guys on the BA list who weren't on mine. Rooker is the one I will kick myself for forgetting. I not only should have had him on my list, but top 5. I think he's going to be very good if not great at the plate.

The other two, Graterol and Enlow, are pitchers who haven't gotten out of rookie ball, and I am loathe to get enthused over those types. (That's particularly true of Graterol, who has already had Tommy John surgery.) The ceilings may be high, but I want to see more. There's a better chance of Zach Littell (No. 8 on my list, not on BA's) being in the Twins rotation someday than either Graterol or Enlow, just because he's already dominated Double A.

The BA list values high ceilings over high floors; my list was kinder to the high floor guys, like Mitch Garver and Littell.

A few other notes: Gordon dropping to No. 8 raised my eyebrows; he's not going to be on BA's top 100 prospect list again this spring after all. Kirilloff stuck at No. 3 despite not playing at all in 2017. Three 2017 draftees are on this list -- Lewis, Rooker and Enlow -- and just two international signings, Javier and Graterol.

Mike Berardino's byline appears on this year's list; he didn't do last year's, the first one he didn't do since takign the Twins beat at the Pioneer Press.

Royce Lewis, BA cover boy

Great seeing Royce Lewis on the cover of the latest @BaseballAmerica. @Twins fans are going to love watching this young man develop - on and off the field. pic.twitter.com/eINrVOqw2I

— Dave St. Peter (@TwinsPrez) January 3, 2018

So Lewis is atop BA's ranking of Twins prospects, and that makes sense to me. He was the first overall pick last June, he at least held his own in low A ball in August, and I sincerely doubt that Nick Gordon, the most likely position player alternative to Lewis, can be a quality major league shortstop. I don't think he'll hit with enough power to be a regular.

I don't know that Lewis is going to stick at short either. But right now the Twins are rather rife with shortstop prospects -- Gordon (who will be in BA's top 100 when that list in released), Lewis, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios. 

Anyway, BA's top 10 list for the Twins isn't in my hand yet, so I'll drop a off-the-top-of-my-head list on you now:

1) Lewis, shortstop

2) Stephen Gonsalves, left-handed pitcher

3) Fernando Romero, right-handed pitcher

4) Nick Gordon, shortstop

5) Wander Javier, shortstop

6) Alex Kirilioff, outfielder

7) Tyler Jay, left-handed pitcher

8) Zach Littell, right-handed pitcher

9) Mitch Garver, catcher

10) Akil Baddoo, outfielder

We'll see how that compares to BA's list.

Notes, quotes and comment

I'll celebrate Monday's offday by offloading my views on some recent news that I've ignored in the past week:

The Twins moved 1/1 pick Royce Lewis up to low A Cedar Rapids. As it happens, I already have my tickets and reservations for next weekend's annual jaunt to the Twins' Midwest League affiliate. So expect my analysis of young Lewis either here or in the Monday print column, and more likely the latter.

What's noteworthy about this move is that it, at least temporarily, moves Lewis ahead of fellow shortstop prospect Wander Javier. Javier has spent the summer at Elizabethton.

These are perhaps the most important minor leaguers in the organization, certainly the most important below Double A (current level of Stephen Gonsalves, Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero). And they are both, as of now, 18-year-old shortstops.

Obviously, they won't both play short in the majors for the Twins. One, maybe both, will move to another position, or get traded, or even fail utterly. But both should be playing shortstop on an everyday basis until its obvious that something's not working at that position. The Twins need to have Lewis and Javier uncoupled, this year and next, at least.

The front office turnover continues with the dismissal of Wayne Krivsky. Krivsky was Terry Ryan's No. 2 until he left after the 2005 season to be the general manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He didn't last long there; the Reds' principal owner, previously a minority shareholder in the St. Louis Cardinals, dumped Krivsky in April 2008 for Walt Jocketty, who lost his job in St. Louis for being analytic resistant. (Confused yet?)

One thing I've often wondered about since 2008 was what would have happened in Minnesota had Krivsky not taken the Cincinnati job. Ryan stepped aside after 2007, and Bill Smith, who followed Krivsky as assistant general manager, moved into the top job. Presumably, had Krivsky remained, it would have been his job.

Anyway: Krivsky, after stints with the Mets and Orioles, returned to Minnesota in 2011 as a special assistant to the general manager, a title that can mean just about anything. Under the new regime, he lost the special assistant title and was assigned scouting duties; he got the ax on Thursday.

Baseball America's annual "Best Tools" issue is out.

Highlights for Twins fans:

For the American League, Joe Mauer is No. 1 for strike zone judgment, Byron Buxton No. 1 for fastest baserunner and No. 3 for best defensive outfielder, and Miguel Sano is No. 3 for best power and best infield arm.

No Twins prospects made BA's list for the International League (Triple A).

Southern League (Double A): LaMonte Wade for best strike zone judgment, Nick Gordon as best defensive shortstop, Jake Mauer as best managerial prospect.

Florida State League (High A): Brian Navaretto as best defensive catcher, Tanner English as best defensive outfielder.

Midwest League (Low A): Jermaine Palacios as best defensive shortstop.

(Note: for the majors, BA lists the top three in each category in both leagues; in the minors, just the top name in each league.)

The state of the Twins farm system

My copy of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook 2017 arrived this week. Also arriving this week, the Top 100 Prospects issue of that fine publication.

Each gave me something to grump about.

From the Handbook: The Twins No. 14 prospect on BA's list "is" Pat Light. Light was waived last week (well after the publication deadline) and is now in the Pittsburgh organization. My grumpiness isn't because the Twins arguably dumped their 14th best prospect, because I was quite unimpressed with Light during his late-2016 callup. It's because, if Light is No. 14, what am I to make of, let us say, No. 28 (Jake Reed)?

From the Top 100: The Twins system placed just two prospects on the list, shortstop Nick Gordon at No. 60 and left-hander Stephen Gonsalves at No. 99. Yes, the Twins graduated a lot of prospects the past couple of years -- Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Tyler Duffey, Jose Berrios -- but they've also been drafting pretty high since 2011, and the returns on those high picks aren't all that promising. One might reasonably expect a pipeline with more to offer.

BA's Top Ten Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America that arrived at my house this week features the publication's Top Ten prospects lists for the five teams in the American League Central. The Twins portion is not yet online went online in limited form this morning (you need a subscription to see it all).

A few comments:

* The listing and commentary has a different byline this time around. Mike Bernardino of the Pioneer Press had done the Twins prospect list the past few years; this year BA staffer Michael Lananna gets the credit. As one who likes getting multiple perspectives on the Twins prospects, having BA be different than the PioPress is a positive.

* This list is necessarily much different from last winter's. Five of the 10 "graduated" to the majors (Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, Byung Ho Park, Jorge Polanco). Another (Nick Burdi) missed almost the entire season with injury and dropped out of the Top Ten. There are four holdovers.

* Nick Gordon, Number One on the new BA list, struggled against left-handed pitching in the Florida State League and committed 24 errors. Lananna writes of Gordon:

 ....some scouts outside of the organization view him as more of a second baseman. The Twins believe he has the aptitude, instincts and short-area quickness to stick at short, but he'll need to continue to put in the time to learn hitters, properly position himself and refine his footwork.

It's my belief that almost every shortstop prospect, especially those who can hit, has his ability to stick at the position questioned. As I recall, some 30 years ago there was some notion that Greg Gagne was better suited to third base; Gagne turned out to be a pretty good major league shortstop.

* The BA list has six pitchers: Left-handers Stephen Gonsalves (No. 2), Tyler Jay (5) and Adalberto Mejia (6) and righties Fernando Romero (4), Kohl Stewart (7) and Felix Jorge (8). Only Mejia, acquired at the trading deadline from the San Francisco Giants for Eduardo Nunez, is likely to be a factor on the 2017 staff.

* There are red flags with each of the six. Gonsalves' fastball command is suspect. Romero just had his first injury-free season in three years. Jay's description paints him as more likely a high-floor reliever than a successful starter. Stewart's strikeout rates remain subpar. Jorge and Mejia project as back-of-the-rotation starters.

From the Prospect Handbook: Kohl Stewart

Kohl Stewart was the fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft, a right-handed pitcher out of a Texas high school who was also a highly-regarded football recruit (a quarterback who had committed to Texas A&M.)

Baseball America rated him the Twins No. 4 prospect heading into spring training 2014 and again last year. This time, he's No. 8, and BA left him out of its Top 100 list, which was released Friday night (he was No. 52 in 2015).

It's not difficult to see the reason for this fade in status in his stats. Last year, in High A ball (Fort Myers of the Florida State League) Stewart saw his walk rate rise to 3.1 per nine inning and his strikeout rate decline to 4.9 per nine innings. These are not good numbers.

That's scouting the stat line. Stewart's stuff is better than his results so far. Indeed, there are some positives in his numbers, particularly the two home runs allowed all season. True, the FSL is known to suppress power numbers, and the Fort Myers park is particularly difficult for long balls, but two taters in 128 innings ain't bad at all, and he allowed just two homers in 2014 as well.

Stewart still has a four-seamer in the upper 90s, still gets a lot of grounders with his hard two-seamer, still has a curve and slider that Mike Berardino's Handbook write-up describes as "reliable weapons." So far he looks like a reincarnation of Nick Blackburn, and that certainly wasn't the hope or expectation when they drafted him so prominently.

Berardino's writeup concludes:

Stewart should open 2016 atop the rotation at Double-A Chattanooga, The hope is that he'll start to miss more bats as he learns more about pitch sequencing, but he profiles as a mid-rotation starter at best.

A mid-rotation starter is not to be sneered at, but he wasn't drafted with that as the goal.

From the Prospect Handbook: Jose Berrios

These two weeks or so leading up to the official opening of spring training feature the release of a lot of prospect lists and ratings. Keith Law of ESPN yesterday released his Top 100 list, which is behind ESPN's paywall. I am maintaining my boycott of Insider status with the Worldwide Leader -- Disney sucks enough money from me as a cable subscriber -- so I don't have access to Law's fine work. (He is literally the only reason I ever consider giving ESPN more money.)

But it's clear from my social media feeds that Law continues to be concerned that Jose Berrios' relatively short stature (he's listed at six feet) and lack of "plane" on his fastball will make him home-run prone in the majors. Berrios yielded 12 homers last year across two levels in 167 innings, which isn't a horrid rate but is twice as many as he's given up in any previous season.

BA -- meaning Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press -- lists Berrios as the Twins No. 2 prospect this spring, behind only Byron Buxton. He is, by all accounts, a better pitcher than the one I watched work one game in Cedar Rapids in 2013  He has mastered his changeup and sharpened his curveball. His walk rate has declined from 3.5 per nine innings with CR in 2013 to 2.1 in Double A-Triple A combined last season.

Really, Berrios has nothing more to prove in the minors, and had the Twins not stacked the major league roster with the guaranteed contracts of multiple veteran mid-rotation starters, he'd be set for the opportunity to test his stuff against major league hitters this April. As matters stand, he's going to have to wait for that opportunity.

From the Prospect Handbook: Five shortstops

Of the 31 Twins prospects ranked by Baseball America, five are shortstops: Nick Gordon (4), Jorge Polanco (6), Wander Javier (11), Engelb Vielma (18) and Jermaine Palacios (19).

That sounds like a lot, but it really isn't.

It's not that unusual for teams to have a lot of shortstops on such lists, because most amateur position players who get pro contracts were shortstops in amateur ball. A player with the physical gifts to someday play major league baseball is probably the best athlete on his high school or college team, so they play short. A lot of them get sorted out to other positions early, of course, but the best talents open at shortstop and play their way off the position.

This list of five is quite heavy with players at the low levels of the system.

Javier, who was signed out of the Dominican last summer as a 16-year-old (breaking Miguel Sano's record for the biggest bonus the Twins have given a Dominican) hasn't played an inning yet. Presumably he'll start in the Dominican Summer League this year; if he dominates there, he might emigrate to the complex team in the Gulf Coast League. We are years from Javier making an sort of impact.

Palacios started 2015 at the GCL and moved up to Elizabethton in the Appy League. He hit well, but that doesn't mean a whole lot, especially in E-Town. My guess is that if Palacios makes it to the majors, it will be at another position, but that's purely a guess. He's all of 19, so there's plenty of time.

Gordon had a fine season at Cedar Rapids, and figures to open 2016 at Fort Myers in the Florida State League. That's still A ball, still a step south of the levels of the farm system from which a player might reasonably get the call to the majors. We're still a year or two (or more) from the 2014 first round pick challenging Eduardo Escobar for the big league job.

Vielma was the shortstop at Fort Myers. People rave about his glovework. From the BA writeup:

... the organization's best defensive infielder ... Vielma has soft hands, smoth actions and outstanding footwork to go with a plus arm and jaw-dropping range.

The question is: Can he hit? He's apparently a bit bigger than he was when I saw him sitting out with an injury in Cedar Rapids in 2014, and his numbers didn't take a noticeable hit when he moved from the hitter-friendly environment of CR to the pitcher-friendly FSL, and those are both encouraging facts. On the other hand, he doesn't have much strike-zone discipline. He'll go as far as his bat can take him.

And that leaves Jorge Polanco, who is more likely a second baseman. I'm slightly surprised he's still in the organization; management seems committed to Brian Dozier at second base and Polanco is an ill fit at short. It's quite possible that he will be an in-season trade chip. This figures to be Polanco's final option year. His bat is as major-league ready as it will ever be.

From the Prospect Handbook: Taylor Rogers

Taylor Rogers is a 25-year-old left-handed pitcher who grew up in Colorado, pitched for the University of Kentucky and signed with the Twins as an 11th round draft pick in 2012, That figures to be a pretty significant draft for the Twins: Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios were the first two selections, and Tyler Duffey was their fifth-rounder, plus there are some other interesting arms still in the pipeline (J.T. Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard).

In that crowd, Rogers might have been something of an afterthought. Instead, he has moved steadily up the ladder. He spent 2015 in the Triple A rotation and racked up 174 innings; then he pitched in the Arizona Fall League for another 25. He was No. 15 on the BA Twins prospect list a year ago (one slot ahead of Duffey); he's No. 14 this year.

He's been almost strictly a starter in his four seasons in the Twins chain -- 101 starts, eight relief appearances (including two stints in the AFL). But he's viewed more as a bullpen possibility for 2016, partly because of the bulk of starters ahead of him and partly because of his stuff and limitations.

From Mike Bernardino's writeup in the Prospect Handbook:

Rogers shows plus command and works at 90-93 mph with late movement on his fastball. His sluvry breaking ball, including a slower version at 76 mph, has helped him dominate lefties (.411 OPS). His changeup, however, still lacks the required separation, as shown by the .843 OPS and 41 extra-base hits he allowed to righties. He focused heavily on the changeup in Arizona, throwing as many as 15 per outing.

There's a lot to like in that description and one obvious issue. I get the impression that the Twins are not that interested in carrying a true LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY); they want their lefty relievers to be able to deal with at least an occasional right-handed hitter. Theoretically, a pitcher lacking a straight change but with a quality breaking ball that he can change speeds on can thrive in the bullpen, but Rogers apparently needs something to combat righties with.

Which. also theoretically, makes Neil Allen an ideal pitching coach pairing for him. Rogers will be in interesting pitcher to follow this spring.

From the Prospect Handbook: Raw numbers

The annual Baseball America Prospect Handbook showed up in my mailbox this weekend, and I figure to wring a few posts out of it.

BA ranks the Top 30 prospects for each organization in the book; buyers who order it directly from Baseball America get an additional pamphlet listing Prospect No. 31 for each team. (The Twins list was compiled by Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, a former BA writer himself.)

Of the 31, I have seen 14 play in person, mostly at Cedar Rapids but one at the Futures Game:
Bryon Buxton (1); Jose Berrios (2); Max Kepler (3); Nick Gordon (4); Jorge Polanco (6); Kohl Stewart (8); Nick Burdi (10); Alex Meyer (12); Adam Brett Walker (17); Jake Reed (20); Randy Rosario (22); Yorman Landa (23); Felix Jorge (24); Ryan Eades (31). I've also watched Stephen Gonsalves (9) and Mason Melotakis (28) throw in spring training, and Engelb Velma (18) take infield instruction from Tom Kelly on a Fort Myers back field. Most of the rest have been in the very lowest levels of the system or, in one case, playing in Korea.

Of the 31, 18 are pitchers; of the 18, six are left handed. Three of those southpaws -- Taylor Rogers (14), Rosario and Melotakis -- are on the 40-man roster and are at least theoretical candidates for the big league bullpen, although only Rogers has a realistic shot at coming north in April.

Of the 13 position players, one (Stuart Turner, 16) is a catcher. Three are listed as first basemen, including Byung Ho Park (7); one as a third baseman; five as shortstops; and three as outfielders. That may look like an awkward distribution, but a lot of minor league shortstops wind up reaching the majors at a different position. See, for example, Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. There's a scouting rule of thumb that says you don't sign an amateur second baseman; if a player has the talent to play second in the majors, he's almost certainly a shortstop in amateur ball. At least one of the five shortstops on the BA list, Polanco, will most likely be a second baseman where ever he gets to have his major league career.

BA's Top 10 Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America arrived in my mailbox Friday with Byron Buxton on the cover and the Top 10 prospects writeups for the AL Central teams inside. No link here because BA will roll the Twins stuff out online sometime next week.

The list:

1. Buxton (CF)
2. Jose Berrios (RHP)
3. Max Kepler (OF-1B)
4. Nick Gordon (SS)
5. Tyler Jay (LHP)
6. Jorge Polanco (SS-2B)
7. Byung Ho Park (1B)
8. Kohl Stewart (RHP)
9. Stephen Gonsalves (LHP)
10. Nick Burdi (RHP)

Buxton, who retained his rookie status for 2016 by two at-bats, was the obvious top choice; he's very likely to be BA's No. 1 overall prospect for the third straight winter when that list comes out in a few weeks. Nor are No. 2 or 3 -- Jose Berrios and Max Kepler -- startling selections. There are plenty of organizations for which either would be the headliner.

The list was compiled for BA by the Pioneer Press beat writer, Mike Berardino, A few comments on his rankings:

Gordon, who spent last year in low A, is above Polanco, who split 2015 between Double A and Triple A, this on the basis that Gordon is expected to stick at shortstop. I like both players, and I agree that Polanco is stretched as a shortstop. His problem right now, as for Berrios and Kepler, is the lack of obvious opportunity on the major league club.

Stewart, the No. 4 overall pick in 2013, the year the Cubs took Kris Bryant with the No. 3 pick, "slid" to No. 7 after seeing his strikeout rate decline in the Florida State League. Key sentence: "The Twins hope he'll start to miss more bats as he learns more about pitch sequencing."

Gonsalves, the Twins fourth-round pick in that draft, has essentially caught Stewart in the rankings. But Berardino figures Stewart will open 2016 in Double A while Gonsalves, who finished 2015 in high A Fort Myers, remains there for a few months.

Jay, college reliever, is likely to start in 2016, probably at Fort Myers. The Miracle figure to have some really interesting left-handed arms in the rotation this spring, with Gonsalves, Jay and Randy Rosario, who was added to the 40-man roster after a strong TJ-recovery season in Cedar Rapids. Of that trio, I assume Jay is both closest to the majors and has the highest ceiling but that Gonsalves is the most likely to be a major league starter.

Talking prospects

Tuesday's major league rainout coincided with the arrival of the dead tree edition of Baseball America and its top prospects lists for each minor league.

The list contains some familiar names from the Twins system, and a couple of  intriguing newcomers to prospect lists.

International League: RHP Jose Berrios, No 9. No surprise there. Berrios has clearly emerged as the best pitching prospect in the organization, and one of the offseason storylines figures to be if and how the Twins clear a path to get him into the major league rotation.

Southern League: 3B Miguel Sano (1), CF Byron Buxton (2), OF/1B Max Kepler (6), Berrios (9), MI Jorge Polanco (14). Chattanooga was loaded, especially early in the first half, before Sano, Buxton and Berrios were moved up. These are five guys who've dotted the organization's top ten lists for a while, and the four position players have all gotten at least a cup of coffee in the majors.

Florida State League: Nobody from the Miracle made the FSL top ten, but RHP Kohl Stewart (15), LHP Stephen Gonsalves (16) and SS Engelb Vielma cracked the second ten. Stewart, who was the No. 4 overall pick 2013, hasn't been as dominant in A ball as one might expect. Vielma is the one of those intriguing newcomers cited above; observers rave about his glove, and as was the case last year, he hit better as the year progressed. Hitting is going to be the key for him.

Midwest League: SS Nick Gordon (4), Gonsalves (18). No surprises there, although I would have thought RHP Felix Jorge might have gotten into the top 20.

Appy League: SS Jermaine Palacios (3), 3B Travis Blankenhorn (15), OF LaMonte Wade (17). If you;re going to remember a name from this list, it should be Palacios. Palacios got a bit of attention this summer from BA for his bat, and this write-up quotes an unnamed scout as saying Palacios is "right there with Nick Gordon," the No. 5 overall pick in 2014. A surplus of young quality shortstops is a definite positive, and a real rarity for the Twins.

Gulf Coast League: Palacios (17).

BA also gave writeups to a selection of players who didn't qualify for the league lists and included to a pair of left-handed pitchers in the Twins system, Tyler Jay (the Twins first-round pick in June) and Mat Batts. Jay didn't qualify for a lack of innings (only 16 after he was used hard in college). Batts didn't make the lists because of his lack of velocity, but his other skills are (BS's word) intriguing. He had dominating numbers in the FSL, but the league is very pitcher friendly. We'll see if his skill set passes muster in the higher levels next year.

My list of top Twins prospects

The past two springs I've compiled my own list of the top 15 Twins prospects. Such things usually come before the season, but I just didn't get around to it in March.

1. Byron Buxton, outfielder
2. Miguel Sano, third base
3. J.O. Berrios, right-handed pitcher
4. Kohl Stewart, right-handed pitcher
5. Jorge Polanco, shortstop
6. Nick Gordon, shortstop
7. Eddie Rosario, outfielder
8. Alex Meyer, right-handed pitcher
9. Trevor May, right-handed pitcher
10. Nick Burdi, right-handed pitcher
11. Stephen Gonsalves, left-handed pitcher
12. Max Kepler, outfielder-first baseman
13. Lewis Thorpe, left-handed pitcher
14. Jake Reed, right-handed pitcher
15. Chih-Wei Hu, right-handed pitcher

Most everybody ranking the Twins prospects lumps Berrios, Meyer and Stewart together 3-4-5 or so. (Some lists break up the trio with Gordon). I'm downgrading Meyer because he's 25 and spent last year at Triple A and is still there.

I also differ from the pack in putting Polanco above Gordon. This is not a knock on Gordon, who was the fifth overall pick last summer and will open 2015 with Cedar Rapids, It is an acknowledgement of Polanco, who is two levels ahead of Gordon and appears to be convincing the organization that he can indeed play shortstop.

Thorpe is lower than on most lists because this list is later and I know what the earlier listers didn't: That the Aussie needed Tommy John surgery, I was tempted to knock him off the top 15 as a result. Hu is an idiosyncratic selection; I saw him last summer in Cedar Rapids and was impressed.

Guys I left off because I ran out of spaces: J.R. Graham, J.T. Chargois, Zach Jones (because I already had two high-end relief arms listed); Stuart Turner (he'll catch in the majors, but he won't hit enough to be a star and may not hit enough to be a regular); Adam Brett Walker (big-time power, but lacks command of the strike zone).

Prospect season, Day Two

Byron Buxton: Still on top of at least
one prominent prospects list.

The folks at MLB.com's prospects division (MLBPipeline.com) released their Top 100 Friday night, and Byron Buxton is No. 1

Yoo-hoo! Par-tay!

It doesn't make any real difference if the prospect gurus rank Buxton first or second, of course. If Buxton hadn't gotten hurt last spring, he probably would have gotten a callup when the Twins decided Aaron Hicks wasn't cutting it, which would have been before the All-Star break. He'd have gotten a shot in center before Danny Santana.

So in a very real sense, that Buxton is 1-2 on prospect lists this winter is a disappointment. I wanted and expected him to have graduated from such lists by now.

MLB.com's list includes six Twins prospects, all of them in the top 36, so it's considerably higher on the Twins system (or at least the top six prospects) than ESPN's Keith Law. Besides Buxton at the top. MLB.com has

Miguel Sano at 11
Alex Meyer at 29
J.O. Berrios at 32
Nick Gordon at 33
Kohl Stewart at 36

Every one of the six is ranked higher by MLB.com than by Law.

Meyer, Berrios and Stewart are all right-handed starters, and their ordering figures to be the most interesting aspect of the various lists. Law had Berrios third among the trio and more than 60 slots down the list. As I've noted repeatedly, Law thinks Berrios is too short, with not enough life or plane on his fastball, to rank higher. (Not that the 97th overall prospect is release bait.)

That's his opinion, and he may be right. Or he may be wrong.

Prospect season opens

One sign that spring training is getting closer (besides the fact that the Twins Caravan and Twins Fest are already in the rear-view mirror): Prospect gurus are starting to issue their Top 100 lists.

Keith Law of ESPN published his Top 100 yesterday. It's for "Insiders," ESPN's online subscription service, and I continue for what I'll call political reasons to decline to subscribe, so I don't know a whole lot about his list.

I do know, from others, that:

• Byron Buxton, last year's No.1, is No. 2 this year. (Kris Bryant of the Cubs system is No. 1)
• The Twins have six players in Law's Top 100: Buxton; Miguel Sano (No. 15); Alex Meyer (30), Nick Gordon (43); Kohl Stewart (53) and J.O. Berrios (97).

That Buxton and Sano have slipped after injury-wrecked 2014s bothers me not a whit. Nor am I surprised that Law ranks Berrios behind Meyer and Stewart; Law is wary of Berrios' short stature for a right-handed pitcher. I'm a bit surprised he has Berrios in the Top 100 at all, in fact.

My unwillingness to sign up for ESPN's Insider service has nothing to to do with the quality of Law's work. Indeed, access to Law's work is really the only reason I ever consider signing up. And it's not because I philosophically oppose paying for content; I work for a newspaper that wants very much to find a way to monetize content.

No, my issue is that I already pay ESPN a goodly sum through my cable bill, and I don't see a need to further subsidize the Leviathan when there are other places to put my money for prospect information, specifically Baseball America and John Sickels.

Baseball America's Top 10 Twins prospects

Baseball America's current issue features the Top 10 prospects for the American League Central teams. The print copy hit my mailbox Wednesday; the on-line copy of the Twins list goes up Nov. 17.

So ... here's BA's list of the Twins top prospects, compiled (or at least described) by Pioneer Press beat write (and BA alum) Mike Berardino:

1. Bryon Buxton, of

   

   Miguel Sano missed
   the 2014 season after
   Tommy John surgery.

2. Miguel Sano, 3b
3. Jose Berrios, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. Alex Meyer, rhp
6. Nick Gordon, ss
7. Nick Burdi, rhp
8. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b
9. Trevor May, rhp
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b

Now, a few comments:

• This is largely last winter's list recycled. Only two names are different: Danny Santana (No. 9 last year) graduated to the majors, and Lewis Thorpe (No. 7), a teenage lefty, was good but not dominant in the Midwest League. They've been replaced by a pair of 2014 draftees, Gordon and Burdi.
• Burdi is an interesting name because he's purely a bullpen candidate. Pitchers who make these lists are usually starters, because starters are more valuable. He ended 2014 in High A; I can easily imagine him reaching Target Field this summer.
• The three right-handed starters who follow the Buxton and Sano megaduo were 3-4-5 last winter also, but in a different order. Then the list was Meyer, Stewart, Berrios. 
• Rosario dropped from No. 6 last time around to No. 10. He had a rough 2014, but he rebounded nicely in the Arizona Fall League, and I can imagine him pushing his way into the left field job this spring.

Baseball America's league prospect lists

Jose Berrios throws a bullpen session
during spring training. He opened the
year at High A Fort Myers and finished
with a start for Triple-A Rochester.

This will be a weird winter in the Twins prospect rankings, because their top two prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, barely played this year.

That's something to keep in mind when perusing Baseball America's fresh top 10 prospects in each minor league. Neither Buxton nor Sano show on these lists, but that doesn't dampen the expectations for either.

The Twins prospects who did, as gleaned from the dead tree issue that arrived in my mailbox Monday (it includes writeups on the Top 10 players and a listing of the second 10, without a report):

International League (Triple A): Alex Meyer, right-handed pitcher, is ranked 8th. Trevor May, right-handed pitcher, is No. 17.

Eastern League (Double A): Nobody in the top 10. Kennys Vargas, first baseman, is No. 16.

Florida State League (High A): Jose Berrios, right-handed pitcher, is No. 6. Jorge Polanco, middle infielder, is No. 14.

Midwest League (Low A): Kohl Stewart, right-handed pitcher, is No. 6.

Appalachian League (Rookie): Nick Gordon, shortstop, is No. 2. Michael Cederoth, right-handed pitcher, is No. 17.

Gulf Coast League (Complex): Nobody in BA's top 20.

Comments: The written report on Gordon is the first I've seen suggesting that the No, 5 overall pick might not stick at shortstop. ... Cederoth was the Twins' third round pick last June, behind Gordon and Nick Burdi. Burdi split his season between the Midwest League and the Florida State League and probably didn't have enough playing time to be considered for either list. ... The written report on Stewart matches what I saw in the July game I attended: His mid-90s fastball was hittable. ...  We saw three of these players in the majors this summer: Vargas, May and Polanco.

Mid season prospect rankings

Jose Berrios or J.O. Berrios: By either name,
his stock has risen this season.

I'm a few days late to this party, but Baseball America this week released its midseason Top 50 prospects list. (Keith Law of ESPN is to publish his list after the All-Star break, and I suppose there will be others.)

Even though Byron Buxton had played just five games this year at the time the list was drawn up, he remains the top guy on the list. Even though Miguel Sano hadn't played at all, he's still in the top 10.

And this should not be any surprise whatsoever. Baseball America doesn't include the guys on major league rosters for the midseason list; that takes out the likes of Xander Bogearts, Gregory Polanco and Oscar Traveras. They also skip the 2014 draft picks. Carlos Correa has a broken leg, so if you want to downgrade Buxton and Sano for injury, you have to downgrade Correa also. Basically, the prospects who could arguably be ranked ahead of Buxton are either already in the majors or themselves injured.

BA listed five Twins prospects, Buxton (No. 1), Sano (9), Jose (or J.O.) Berrios (27), Kohl Stewart (30) and Alex Meyer (32).

It's the order of the three right-handed pitchers that intrigues me. The wintertime lists typically had Meyer ahead of Stewart with Berrios trailing not only those two but, in some cases, Eddie Rosario and/or Josmil Pinto.

Berrios was outstanding in high A ball; now the 2012 supplemental round pick gets to test his skill against Double A hitters. Stewart is holding his own, or a bit better, in low A. Meyer has been up and down at Triple A, and I infer that he's slipped behind Berrios and Stewart on the continuing question of the quality of his command.

Ranking Meyer 32nd is hardly dissing him. He was raked No. 45 by BA over the winter, after all. I'm more inclined to view the reordered ranking of the three pitchers as a good sign regarding Berrios than as a red flag on Meyer.

(This might be a good place to note that the Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal tweeted Tuesday that Meyer appears unlikely to get any major league time this year. The Twins are being careful about his innings after he missed a couple months last year.)