It's Opening Day — at least for most of the majors. It'll be a frigid one for those of us at Target Field, and I don't expect to see a full house there.
Trying to guess at the weather in making the April schedule is impossible, of course. Last year we had 70 degree temps on April 1, but the home opener came a few days later and was quite cold. This year we might have something considerably warmer a few days after the opener — when the Twins have hit the road.
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Ron Gardenhire spent much of spring training using Brian Dozier (and others) in the second spot in the batting order. But this weekend the manager said he will move Joe Mauer up to the two-hole and elevate the other middle-of-the-order guys one spot each, while hitting Dozier eighth.
This makes perfect sense to me; I called for it in January as part of my Benchmarks for 2013 series.
Dozier may become a good top-of-the-order guy. He certainly didn't perform like that in 2012, and it seems wise to put him at the bottom of the order until he demonstrates that he merits a more prominent role.
Elevating Mauer, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, etc. one slot each will, over the course of the season, get them about 25 more plate appearances apiece. Dropping Dozier from second to eighth should take about 150 plate appearances away from him. Right now, there's no reason to believe the team is helped by giving him those at-bats.
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The Twins on Friday lost relief pitcher Alex Burnett, who had already been optioned out, on waivers to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Waiving Burnett opened a spot on the 40-man roster for outfielder Wilkin Ramirez. As I said last week, I doubt that Ramirez is going to last long on the active roster.
But I also doubt that the Twins will have as much reason to regret exposing Burnett to waivers as they did in 2009 when they lost Craig Breslow that way. I used to envision Burnett emerging as a Juan Rincon-type of set-up man, but after three seasons of declining strikeout rates, it had become clear that that wasn't going to happen.
The Twins have plenty of other right-handed relief candidates they can turn to.
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Play Ball!
Showing posts with label Alex Burnett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Burnett. Show all posts
Monday, April 1, 2013
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson and bullpen roles
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| Alex Burnett's strikeout rate has dropped from 7.0 K/9 in 2010 to 4.5 in 2012. |
If in fact Wood is out of the immediate picture, the bullpen looks like this:
Closer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jared Burton
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Brian Duensing
MR 1: Casey Fien
MR 2: Ryan Pressly
LOOGY 2: Tyler Robertson
Long: Josh Roenicke
Quite possibly Ron Gardenhire and Co. would flip-flop Pressly and Roenicke. In practice, I don't think there's going to be much distinction; Roenicke can't give them two innings every day, and there's going to be too much work for one long man with this starting rotation. Pressley's going to work more long relief and mop-up than meaningful outs for a while.
Neither Burnett nor Robertson had good stat lines this spring, not that eight innings or so proves anything. I do regard the choice of Robertson as a more realistic one. The Twins (at least until Scott Diamond returns) have an all-right-handed rotation, most of whom will need early relief help. Robertson gives them a lefty to use to get out of those fifth- and sixth -nning jams while saving Duensing for the seventh or eighth.
Robertson may be too inconsistent to be a truly good LOOGY, but he's better equipped for the job than any of the right-handers. Probably.
Bullpens are always works in progress, and with Anthony Swarzak and Wood presumably somewhere on the rehab trail, there will certainly be some changes made before April ends.
As for Burnett ... regular readers know that I've grown increasingly skeptical of his value. When he came up, I envisioned him becoming a new version of Juan Rincon, who gave the Twins three very good seasons of set-up work. It hasn't happened for Burnett. His strikeout rate has fallen each year in the majors, and while his walk rate has fallen also, it's still too high.
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Byron Buxton, the No 2 overall draft pick last June, made the trip to Bradenton, Fla., for the nooner exhibition with the Pirates. As with Miguel Sano last week (and again Tuesday), this has nothing to do with competing for a big-league spot this year. Just a glimpse for Gardy and Crew, and a reward for Buxton.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Reorganizing the bullpen
Unlike 2011, the Twins bullpen this year has been effective and, as a result, stable. Other than swapping out Matt Maloney for Jeff Manship as a mop-up/long man -- the least important role in the 'pen -- the relief corps has remained essentially the same.
This is no longer true. Brian Duensing has been moved to the starting rotation, and Matt Capps is headed to the disabled list, with Tyler Robertson called up.
Capps will never be loved by the fan base, but he is a competent closer, and his presence allowed the trio of Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Duensing to fill up the seventh and eighth innings with outs.
Now it all gets shaken up. Capps is out of the picture for at least two weeks, and Robertson gets a trial as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY).
Burton got the save Sunday, but I think that was because Perkins was then the only lefty in the bullpen, and manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to save him in case he needed somebody to match up against Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, Cincinnati's left-handed power.
Gardenhire likes set roles. Robertson provides a second southpaw. I think Perkins is the ninth-inning guy for now.
Here's how I see the new roles:
Closer: Perkins
Set-up 1: Burton
Set-up 2/Middle relief 1: Alex Burnett
LOOGY: Robertson
MR2: Jeff Gray
MR3: Anthony Swarzak
Long man: Manship
Other than Robertson and Perkins, the big promotion here would be Burnett. He's appeared in 29 games, 36 innings, with an ERA of exactly 2.00. He hasn't given up a run since May 23rd; he's allowed just two hits this month (7.2 IP).
That ERA overstates his effectiveness; his strikeout rate is just 3.8 per nine innings. At least one of those numbers -- the ERA or the strikeout rate -- is going to get higher. He's gotten outs, so his role is increasing, but it's difficult to sustain the outs with such a low K rate.
This is no longer true. Brian Duensing has been moved to the starting rotation, and Matt Capps is headed to the disabled list, with Tyler Robertson called up.
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| Tyler Robertson was a third-round draft pick in 2006. |
Now it all gets shaken up. Capps is out of the picture for at least two weeks, and Robertson gets a trial as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY).
Burton got the save Sunday, but I think that was because Perkins was then the only lefty in the bullpen, and manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to save him in case he needed somebody to match up against Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, Cincinnati's left-handed power.
Gardenhire likes set roles. Robertson provides a second southpaw. I think Perkins is the ninth-inning guy for now.
Here's how I see the new roles:
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| Alex Burnett: 2-0 with four holds in 2012. |
Set-up 1: Burton
Set-up 2/Middle relief 1: Alex Burnett
LOOGY: Robertson
MR2: Jeff Gray
MR3: Anthony Swarzak
Long man: Manship
Other than Robertson and Perkins, the big promotion here would be Burnett. He's appeared in 29 games, 36 innings, with an ERA of exactly 2.00. He hasn't given up a run since May 23rd; he's allowed just two hits this month (7.2 IP).
That ERA overstates his effectiveness; his strikeout rate is just 3.8 per nine innings. At least one of those numbers -- the ERA or the strikeout rate -- is going to get higher. He's gotten outs, so his role is increasing, but it's difficult to sustain the outs with such a low K rate.
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Late night: Twins 7, Blue Jays 6
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| Friday's game was delayed one hour and 51 minutes by rain, which made it impossible to get the result in the print edition. |
Box score here
Nine walks. That's the key number for the Twins in this game — they drew nine walks from the Toronto pitchers. The Blue Jays pitchers threw 174 pitches, a figure that should make somebody's arm throb.
Which is how they could be out-homered four to zero and still come away with the W.
Nick Blackburn had a serious gopher ball problem, giving up three dingers in five innings. He also walked three men himself. Five earned runs in five innings ... he got credit for the win (his first since last July), but he shouldn't feel good about his outing.
But the bullpen was pretty solid. Glen Perkins wasn't sharp, but the three right-handers (Alex Burnett, Jared Burton and Matt Capps) each threw shutout innings.
Burnett is having an interesting season. His ERA is down to 2.89, about half what it was last season, but his hit rate and home run rates aren't improved, and his strikeout rate continues a steep decline (7.0 K/9 in 2010, 5.9 in 2011, 4.3 to date this year). But he's also knocked his walk rate under two per nine innings.
Friday marked his 14th appearance of the season, but only the second in a game the Twins won, and the first time, I believe, that he was entrusted with a lead. Not that the starters have turned a lot of leads over to the bullpen.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Notes on the bullpen
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| Brian Duensing pitches on Opening Day in Baltimore. |
For the second straight season, the Twins have a drastically reworked — and significantly cheaper — bullpen than in the season before.
A few observations:
* The Twins have a lousy record, but that's not really the bullpen's fault. There is one loss that can clearly be pinned to poor relief work, that being last Sunday, when Glen Perkins — the brightest light in the 2011 'pen — got lit up by Texas.
* I was struck Monday evening by the radar-gun readings when Brian Duensing pitched in the bottom of the eighth. The ESPN broadcast showed several readings of 95 mph, which seemed a bit high for Duensing.
So I checked the readings as provided by MLB via its iPad app, and it too gave numbers in the mid 90s. Some were 94, some were 95, but the idea is the same: Duesning was throwing with markedly more velocity than we're accustomed to seeing.
He had a longer stint on Wednesday (one day of rest) and the velocity readings on his fastball topped out at 93— a bit lower than on Monday, but still higher than as a starter.
This is not unusual for starters-turned-relievers; Glen Perkins at times last season, when given multiple days off, came out throwing 97. Duensing, so far as I know, isn't reaching those levels.
* Duensing, of course, lost his spot in the starting rotation in large part because he was so ineffective against right-handed hitters. Through Thursday night he had faced 24 hitters in 2012, 16 right and eight left; that's hardly sufficient evidence to judge if he's fixed that problem. But so far, right-handers are hitting .286/.375/.286 against him, lefties .250/.250/.250.
When he was effective as a starter, it was because he was keeping the ball in the park. That nobody's gotten an extra-base hit off him so far is an encouraging sign.
*Alex Burnett had two shutout innings Thursday and has now worked 8.1 innings without being charged with a run. More striking is that he hasn't walked a hitter yet; control was always an issue for him in 2010-11.
*Jeff Gray and Duensing are the men brought in most often with runners on base. Duensing has stranded four of his five inherited runners; Gray six of his eight. Jared Burton has stranded all three of his inherited runners.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Burnett's drawback
Alex Burnett took the loss Wednesday afternoon, and his outing fell apart in a way that is becoming almost cliche for him — a way that really limits his usefulness as a middle reliever.
He came in with men on base and two outs in the seventh inning and got his man (on one pitch). So far, so good.
But then he was called upon to pitch in the eighth inning, and things unraveled.
That fits a pattern he established in 2010 — he could finish an inning, even pitch a full inning, but when asked to come back out of the dugout and take the hill for the next inning, he struggled.
That was particularly bad for him in 2010, when he was shoehorned into the long man's role. The Twins last season had Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain (and, after Matt Capps arrived, Jon Rauch) as right-handed set-up men. They had no need for another short reliever, and that's the kind of role Burnett appears best suited for.
This year, Ron Gardenhire has gotten some mileage out of Burnett by trying not to have him cross innings —which is how Burnett racked up just 24 innings in his first 31 games. That's a lot of partial innings.
But on Wednesday, that wasn't really an option. Francisco Liriano didn't make it out of the fifth inning, the bullpen had pitched four innings the day before, and Gardenhire had little appetite for using Capps in a game situation after Capps' last three outings. The bullpen needed four outs from Burnett on Wednesday, and got them — but at the cost of four runs allowed.
Burnett, judging from his quote in this story, doesn't think there's an issue for him crossing innings. But he's not convincing Gardenhire (or me) that he's adept at such outings. And to become a prime set-up man — and I think he can be a very good one in time — he needs to be able to do a bit more than finish an inning.
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| Alex Burnett has five holds and a 2-5 record after taking the loss Wednesday. |
But then he was called upon to pitch in the eighth inning, and things unraveled.
That fits a pattern he established in 2010 — he could finish an inning, even pitch a full inning, but when asked to come back out of the dugout and take the hill for the next inning, he struggled.
That was particularly bad for him in 2010, when he was shoehorned into the long man's role. The Twins last season had Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain (and, after Matt Capps arrived, Jon Rauch) as right-handed set-up men. They had no need for another short reliever, and that's the kind of role Burnett appears best suited for.
This year, Ron Gardenhire has gotten some mileage out of Burnett by trying not to have him cross innings —which is how Burnett racked up just 24 innings in his first 31 games. That's a lot of partial innings.
But on Wednesday, that wasn't really an option. Francisco Liriano didn't make it out of the fifth inning, the bullpen had pitched four innings the day before, and Gardenhire had little appetite for using Capps in a game situation after Capps' last three outings. The bullpen needed four outs from Burnett on Wednesday, and got them — but at the cost of four runs allowed.
Burnett, judging from his quote in this story, doesn't think there's an issue for him crossing innings. But he's not convincing Gardenhire (or me) that he's adept at such outings. And to become a prime set-up man — and I think he can be a very good one in time — he needs to be able to do a bit more than finish an inning.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Alex Burnett's opportunity
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| Alex Burnett is 0-2, 6.52 so far this season, and the Twins have not won any game in which he has appeared. |
First, a note: Harmon Killebrew's funeral at noon CDT today will be carried by Fox Sports North, both on TV and on its website.
(Update: It appears that all the metro TV stations will carry the funeral, and I assume they'll all stream it on their websites as well.)
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Between the suddenly lively Twins lineup and a solid outing from Nick Blackburn, the Twins had no need to call Thursday on any reliever in a game situation. Phil Dumatrait and Anthony Swarzak pitched, but both were just getting some work in in a game already decided. The two-to-three guys Ron Gardenhire trusts in the late innings (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan) all got the day off, and Kevin Slowey now has had a starter's rest.
But it remains true that the Twins are short at least one reliable arm. Their bullpen revamp counted on Nathan's return to form, and that hasn't fully happened. It counted on Jose Mijares at least remaining a competent LOOGY, if not more; instead, he's gone backwards. Even Perkins's emergence was part of the plan -- not necessarily that Perkins would emerge, but that SOMEBODY would.
The Mijares/Nathan struggles mean that there's a need for a second emergence. Capps has had more one-plus inning save opportunities already this season than Eddie Guardado had in two years as closer.
The most likely candidate on the current 25-man roster is Alex Burnett. Gardenhire has repeatedly tried to wedge Burnett into a four-to-six outs role, and I doubt that kind of use fits him. I think Burnett could thrive if used for one to three outs at a time. But given the use restrictions on the post-surgical Nathan and the apparent difficulties Slowey has had bouncing back from relief outings, it's difficult to limit Burnett to "optimal" use. Having Swarzak on the roster gives the Twins two long men, so that might help.
I said it before the season started, and it remains true: The bullpen is a work in progress. That's no great insight. Bullpens are always works in progress. This one is merely more obviously so than most. I fully expect that at some point we're going to see Kyle Waldrop and/or Carlos Gutierrez, but right now neither is even on the 40-man roster.
Burnett has the opportunity to make the Greg McMichael rule work for him. Get outs, and they'll find a job for you. So far, he hasn't taken advantage of it.
(Update: It appears that all the metro TV stations will carry the funeral, and I assume they'll all stream it on their websites as well.)
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Between the suddenly lively Twins lineup and a solid outing from Nick Blackburn, the Twins had no need to call Thursday on any reliever in a game situation. Phil Dumatrait and Anthony Swarzak pitched, but both were just getting some work in in a game already decided. The two-to-three guys Ron Gardenhire trusts in the late innings (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan) all got the day off, and Kevin Slowey now has had a starter's rest.
But it remains true that the Twins are short at least one reliable arm. Their bullpen revamp counted on Nathan's return to form, and that hasn't fully happened. It counted on Jose Mijares at least remaining a competent LOOGY, if not more; instead, he's gone backwards. Even Perkins's emergence was part of the plan -- not necessarily that Perkins would emerge, but that SOMEBODY would.
The Mijares/Nathan struggles mean that there's a need for a second emergence. Capps has had more one-plus inning save opportunities already this season than Eddie Guardado had in two years as closer.
The most likely candidate on the current 25-man roster is Alex Burnett. Gardenhire has repeatedly tried to wedge Burnett into a four-to-six outs role, and I doubt that kind of use fits him. I think Burnett could thrive if used for one to three outs at a time. But given the use restrictions on the post-surgical Nathan and the apparent difficulties Slowey has had bouncing back from relief outings, it's difficult to limit Burnett to "optimal" use. Having Swarzak on the roster gives the Twins two long men, so that might help.
I said it before the season started, and it remains true: The bullpen is a work in progress. That's no great insight. Bullpens are always works in progress. This one is merely more obviously so than most. I fully expect that at some point we're going to see Kyle Waldrop and/or Carlos Gutierrez, but right now neither is even on the 40-man roster.
Burnett has the opportunity to make the Greg McMichael rule work for him. Get outs, and they'll find a job for you. So far, he hasn't taken advantage of it.
Saturday, April 9, 2011
Bringing up Burnett
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| Alex Burnett is getting another shot. |
I find this interesting, because Burnett was the first legitimate bullpen candidate to get shipped out this spring. First out, first back.
So why wasn't one of the later cuts brought back? I'll speculate:
1) Slowey's injury is not deemed particularly serious or lasting.There's a pretty good chance that this will be a 10-day or so callup (Slowey last pitched on Monday, so his DL stint can be backdated).
2) Two of the later cuts (Kyle Waldrop and Carlos Gutierrez) aren't on the 40-man roster. While the Twins have two openings on the 40, they're not likely to burn an option year on either for a 10-day stint.
3) Jim Hoey, I assume, stuck late into camp because his fastball velocity is so intriguing. He got sent down because his command is so lacking. Burnett is the safer choice right now.
The other late cuts were non-roster left-handers (Chuck James, Scott Diamond, Phil Dumatrait), and the Twins aren't likely to go with a four-lefty bullpen.
So Burnett got the call, in effect, by process of elimination. I rather believe that if Slowey had a serious, long-term injury, that Waldrop would have been tabbed.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Ticket sales, roster cuts and trade speculation
Item: The Twins started selling single-game tickets Saturday and had technical glitches that made some customers unhappy.
Comment: Given the hype and emphasis the organization put on the March 19 opening of sales, this is a black eye for the Twins. They not only expected heavy demand on Saturday, they encouraged it. To have repeated system failures as a result ... they deserve the complaints, and shrugging them off as merely a "relatively small number" doesn't live up to my expectations of the operation.
Item: Five more players were sent to the minor league complex Saturday.
Comment: Trevor Plouffe got the attention in LaVelle Neal's pregame blog, but Plouffe entered camp as an underdog candidate for the roster and played poorly to boot. He's been charged with six errors in exhibition games, and that understates his problems in the field.
The demotion that struck me was Alex Burnett, who made the squad last year. Nobody's seized one of the three open bullpen jobs yet, and Burnett's been no worse than some of the remaining contenders, but he faded in the second half last season and obviously needs to climb back up in the esteem of the decision makers.
The other guys gone: Ben Revere, Danny Rams and Matt Brown. None were serious candidates for the 25-man roster.
Item: Kevin Slowey threw three shutout innings of relief Saturday.
Comment: The Blue Jays are said to have had three scouts and a video camera on hand for the game. If the Twins trade a starter this spring — and I think it's likely — I'd rather they moved Nick Blackburn, who started (five innings, two runs allowed) than Slowey, but I think the Twins value Blackburn more than Slowey, and I also think many other organizations would prefer Slowey.
The video camera? I suspect it's to dissect pitching motions. Slowey has had repeated stints on the disabled list, and if Toronto is contemplating trading for him, they may want first to decide if the injuries are rooted in his delivery.
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| It's back to Rochester for shortstop Trevor Plouffe. |
Item: Five more players were sent to the minor league complex Saturday.
Comment: Trevor Plouffe got the attention in LaVelle Neal's pregame blog, but Plouffe entered camp as an underdog candidate for the roster and played poorly to boot. He's been charged with six errors in exhibition games, and that understates his problems in the field.
The demotion that struck me was Alex Burnett, who made the squad last year. Nobody's seized one of the three open bullpen jobs yet, and Burnett's been no worse than some of the remaining contenders, but he faded in the second half last season and obviously needs to climb back up in the esteem of the decision makers.
The other guys gone: Ben Revere, Danny Rams and Matt Brown. None were serious candidates for the 25-man roster.
Item: Kevin Slowey threw three shutout innings of relief Saturday.
Comment: The Blue Jays are said to have had three scouts and a video camera on hand for the game. If the Twins trade a starter this spring — and I think it's likely — I'd rather they moved Nick Blackburn, who started (five innings, two runs allowed) than Slowey, but I think the Twins value Blackburn more than Slowey, and I also think many other organizations would prefer Slowey.
The video camera? I suspect it's to dissect pitching motions. Slowey has had repeated stints on the disabled list, and if Toronto is contemplating trading for him, they may want first to decide if the injuries are rooted in his delivery.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Bullpen candidate profile: Alex Burnett
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| Alex Burnett pitched in 41 games for the Twins in 2010. |
Throws: Right
Age: 23 (turns 24 in July)
Roster status: 40-man roster; two options remaining
Chance of making team: Moderate
Alex Burnett made the Twins opening roster in 2010 as the last man in the bullpen and did quite well for a while: His ERA on June 15 was 2.30. A month later it was above 4, and he was back in the minors before July was out. Although he was recalled in September, he didn't pitch well in Rochester or in Minnesota the rest of the way.
His final tally with the Twins: 2-2 with two holds, no saves, 41 games, 47.2 innings, 5.29 ERA and more than 4 walks per nine innings -- and there's your problem, control. In Triple A, he worked 19.2 innings with an ERA of 5.49.
I thought, then and now, that at the root of Burnett's struggles was how he was used, as a long man. Seventeen of his 41 appearances were multiple-inning outings, and a good share of the other 23 were intended to be more than three outs but were cut short because of ineffectiveness.
I think he'd be more effective as a short man, but that role wasn't available on the 2010 Twins, and (unlike Matt Guerrier earlier in his career) he didn't get enough outs as a long man to force his way up the ladder. There may be too many people (imports, injury returnees, other prospects) who've moved ahead of him on the organizational pecking chart for him to open 2011 with the big club.
Still, I see parallels to Juan Rincon in him -- short righties with decent fastballs and good sliders, not much of a change -- and I still believe he can become an effective set-up man. He needs another chance, and he needs to throw more strikes when he gets that chance.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
A rough draft of the 2011 bullpen
In today's game, calling somebody a "relief pitcher" is akin to calling somebody an infielder. A shortstop is not a first baseman is not a second baseman is not a third baseman, and a lefty specialist (or LOOGY) is not a closer is not a long man.
So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.
Joe Nathan (injured; closer): The significant questions begin at the very foundation of the bullpen. Nobody knows in the dead of winter what form Nathan's return from ligament replacement surgery will take. Anything is possible, from a Billy Wagner-style complete and immediate return to excellence to a Darren Dreifort-style immediate reinjury.
But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.
The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.
Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.
The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.
Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.
The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.
The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.
Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).
Alex Burnett: (utility): Miscast last season in multi-inning stints because that's where the team had its need. His minor league success has come in shorter stints.
The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.
Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.
Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.
Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.
Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.
Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.
The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.
That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 -- for the Twins.
How I see it as of today:
Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)
So ... let's examine 10 of the various candidates on hand for the Twins bullpen, identify their established roles and ask ourselves what role they can reasonably be expected to fill in 2011. The Bill James Handbook lists seven roles -- closer, set-up, lefty specialist, middle reliever, long man and utility reliever (generally an inexperienced guy who pitches as needed while trying to work into a better role) plus emergency relievers (starting pitchers or position players pressed into relief duty). I'll use the book's determinations.
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| Joe Nathan: 246 saves with the Twins. |
But Nathan will be paid $12 million next season, and he wants to earn it and the Twins want him to earn it. I expect him to open the season with a significant role; he may pitch his way out of it, but he'll get a clear shot at retaining the ninth inning job. It may well be that he won't be used on consecutive days.
The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer to open the season.
Matt Capps (closer): He had 42 saves last season (split between Washington and Minnesota). In the Twins perfect 2011, he's the top set-up man; things seldom work perfectly.
The Outsider's verdict: Co-closer/primary set-up.
Jose Mijares (LOOGY): When the rotund Venezuelan debuted late in 2008, he was awesome. In the past two seasons he has twice reported to camp out of shape, been optioned to the minors, spent time on the disabled list, moved at least one teammate to the verge of violence and convinced Ron Gardenhire that he can't be trusted against right-handed hitters.
The tools are there to be better. The makeup may not be.
The Outsider's verdict: LOOGY, but if he's matured he could move into a set-up role.
Jim Hoey (minors): Big fastball, questionable control. If he throws strikes, he'll climb the ladder in the 'pen rapidly.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility; he's the best bet for the Greg McMichael Rule to come into play (if you get outs, they'll find a job for you).
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| Pat Neshek's Twins ERAs: 2.19, 2.94, 4.73. 5.00 |
The Outsider's verdict: Middle relief.
Pat Neshek (utility): The key is his velocity. If he's in the low 90s, as before his TJ surgery, he's a set-up candidate; if he's in the low-to-mid 80s as he was last year, he cannot pitch in the majors.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility and pitches his way up or out.
Glen Perkins (LOOGY): He's been primarily a starter, but the Twins are now looking at him as a relief pitcher. His track record against lefty hitters is not good. He needs a good breaking ball to do the job, and the idea seems to be that his slider will do the trick. We'll see.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.
Scott Diamond (minors): The Rule 5 pick either sticks or returns to the Atlanta Braves. He's been a starter, but some prospect gurus see him as an effective lefty specialist. Probably competing with Perkins for a job, but there's room for both on the roster if Mijares moves up the ladder.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility/secondary LOOGY-- if he makes the team.
Anthony Slama (utility): Good minor league numbers, but his command is uncertain and his stuff doesn't impress scouts. The Twins have not been eager to give him a shot.
The Outsider's verdict: Utility reliever if he makes the team.
Jeff Manship (utility): I don't know why he's not listed as a long man, but he's not. He's probably Plan B for the rotation as of now, meaning he's the guy who'd get the first shot if /when one of the starting rotation guys goes down; that status is likely to fall to Kyle Gibson later in the year. Pitched better with the Twins last season than in Rochester.
The Outsider's verdict: Long man if he makes the team.
That's 10. There are other possibilities, like Carlos Gutierrez and Rob Delaney, but these are the 10 most likely guys right now for the (probably) seven bullpen jobs. There are a lot of open jobs, and just as many questions here. Good organizations can find answers to those questions. And that's the challenge -- maybe the challenge for 2011 -- for the Twins.
How I see it as of today:
Nathan (closer)
Capps (set-up/second closer)
Mijares (LOOGY)
Burnett (middle)
Hoey (utility)
Diamond (utility)
Neshek (utility)
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Momentum, starting pitchers and Slama time
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Silence any babble about momentum after Sunday's comeback. Inertia was the ruling force Monday, with Scott Baker's season continuing in the direction it's been taking — down.
The only encouraging thing from his outing was the post-game report that his elbow was not sore. But he certainly didn't pitch well — 13 baserunners and 14 outs.
Still, his leash has to be longer than Nick Blackburn's, and probably longer than Kevin Slowey's. Slowey starts today. If he gets shelled again, he's probably just as much at risk of being pulled from the rotation as Blackburn is, and I really hope that Blackburn doesn't start Friday at Baltimore.
But there's only one Brian Duensing on the roster. If Duensing takes Blackburn's place, does Jeff Manship take Slowey's? Glen Perkins has been reportedly pitching better in Triple A Rochester in recent outings, but his ERA is still north of 7 — and almost any callup will make him arbitration eligible, so the Twins have a real financial incentive not to bring him to the majors unless and until they're sure he's going to stick.
Plans B and C for the rotation are in the major league bullpen. If Ron Gardenhire waits another week to move Manship into the rotation, he's going to encounter the same "stretch him out" issue with Manship that he has with Duensing. I'm sure he'd rather fix Blackburn and Slowey, but that seems increasingly unlikely.
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Alex Burnett, who earlier this season was pitching his way into a key bullpen role, has now pitched his way off the roster. His ERA, which a month ago was under 2.5, has risen to 4.39, so it's not any surprise.
Anthony Slama (pictured), long a favorite of the blogosphere, got the call. Slama has been successful in the minors, at least by such traditional measures as ERA, but the Twins have not treated him as a true prospect. Two issues: He doesn't throw hard, and he walks people.
I'm a skeptic.
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Ask and ye shall receive (bullpen edition)
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Kevin Slowey had another five-and-fly start Monday in Toronto. Four or five weeks ago, this would probably mean Brian Duensing in the sixth; two weeks ago, probably Jesse Crain.
But Duensing is working later in the games now, and Crain has been ineffective. With a three-run lead, Alex Burnett (pictured) got the ball.
It wasn't brilliant — two innings, two hits, one walk, no strikeouts — but he got six outs and allowed no runs. It was his first major league "hold," and may there be many more.
Burnett reminds me of Juan Rincon, who had a nice little run as a top-grade set-up man for the Twins: Short righty (Burnett is listed at 6-feet, Rincon at 5-11) with a low-90s fastball and a good slider.
Burnett was followed in the eighth by Matt Guerrier with a five-run lead. I assume this was because when he started warming up it was still a "save situation" — Justin Morneau's two-run homer came with two outs. He was warmed, so they used him.
And Crain did get an inning, the ninth, with a comfy five-run cushion.
So Burnett appears to be ahead of Crain in the bullpen pecking order right now. But this can change. The discontent Ron Gardenhire voiced about Crain during the weekend was couched in terms of needing him turned around. Given that neither Pat Neshek nor Clay Condrey appear to have begun pitching in rehab assignments, Crain may be a long way from exhausting his chances.
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My silly little TV poll Monday got the results I expected: 13 responses, 11 of who said they'd watch the Twins-Jays, one the NBA and one a dark screen.
Me? Twins-Jays, mostly, with occasional look-ins at Mythbusters (hey, I like watching Jamie and Adam blow stuff up). A bit of time pulling dandelions in the backyard with the radio (I decided to stick with it through the end of the top of the fourth; the Jays killed a lot of dandelions with their sloppy play). And after the Twins game ended, I saw the last two or three innings of the four-hour Yankees-Red Sox game.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Into the bullpen

Some curious moves, or non-moves, Saturday by Ron Gardenhire with his bullpen crew.
Going at it in chronological order:
* He pulled starter Jeff Manship after six innings and 86 pitches. Maybe a bit hasty, but it was a one-run game at that point, and Manship hasn't exactly established himself.
* Brian Duensing pitched the seventh, throwing just 10 pitches. And that was it for him for the night. Which, in retrospect, is curious because later — after the game had gone into extra innings — Dick Bremer talked about how Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson mentioned that they don't have a long man in the bullpen. Duensing should be the long man, but he has been used as a short man — in fact, that's probably why Manship got the start. Duensing isn't the rotation's Plan B now. Manship is.
My point being: If they want a long man, it would have made sense to stretch Duensing out a bit more and give him the eighth inning.
* Instead, they went with Matt Guerrier, and he blew up after getting two outs. Three hits, two runs, tied game. The big blows came from left-handed hitters, this with LOOGY Ron Mahay available.
It is rare for one of the Twins set up guys to start an inning, give up runs, and still finish the inning. Almost all the middle relief meltdowns I chronicle here involve three or four relievers, none of whom can get the first guy out. This blown lead was a reversal of Gardy's SOP.
* Mahay got the ball to open the ninth, but after three batters, one hit and two outs, he gave way to ... not Pat Neshek, not Jesse Crain, but Alex Burnett, the rookie who has been limited to low-leverage situations.
Crain had pitched the day before and, according to Bremer, did some more throwing on the side earlier Saturday, so it's not surprising that Gardenhire/Anderson wanted to hold him out. But choosing Burnett over Neshek suggests that Neshek slid down the totem pole with his lousy outing on Wednesday.
*Burnett got a long leash. He threw 36 pitches and ultimately took the loss, and only 12 of the 36 pitches were strikes (He had two intentional walks, but even if those eight pitches are ignored it's still 16 balls to 12 strikes). It took a big-time throw from Denard Span and catch-block-tag at the plate by Drew Butera (photo above) to keep the Tribe off the board in the 10th, and Burnett didn't get an out in the 11th.
* Crain pitched after all. Closer Jon Rauch warmed up in the eighth; Neshek didn't even do that much.
For the game, the Minnesota bullpen worked 4.2 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and four walks. The only one who truly pitched well was Duensing.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Poll results and other stuff

Here's how the 45 responses to last week's poll — on which current pitcher is most likely to win 300 games — broke down.
The most popular answer was "Nobody": 13 votes, 22 percent. That was followed by CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, who each got 10 votes (22 percent). Then Tim Lincecum (seven votes, 15 percent); "Somebody else" (three votes, 6 percent); and Johan Santana (two votes, 4 percent).
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Regular reader and commenter Chris wonders why the Twins replaced the ailing Jose Mijares with another pitcher (Alex Burnett, above).
One good reason is that, with Pat Neshek sporting a sore finger and Nick Blackburn's elbow barking, the 12-man staff was in danger of becoming a de facto nine-man staff.
Neshek had a cortisone shot Saturday; if he's not ready to go on Tuesday, he may go on the DL as well. The Twins apparently don't think Blackburn's elbow is serious, but his next start may be pushed back.
I suspect, however, that those other ailments are part of why they DL'd Mijares, who had been described as day-to-day. They felt they needed another usable arm, and they made the move with Mijares,who not only can now rehab his stiff elbow but work on his conditioning.
But underlying it all is that the Twins are more comfortable with a 12-man staff. One of the key precepts to their organizational philosophy is "Protect the Pitcher."
They protect the pitcher with pitch counts, with Nick Punto's glove, and with a deep bullpen so that they aren't forced to get extra outs and innings from the guy who's on the mound now.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Poll results and Alex Burnett
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I should have mentioned in the previous post that the main reason Alex Burnett (above) was brought up rather than Anthony Slama, Ron Mahay or Kyle Waldrop is that Burnett is on the 40-man roster. The others are not.
Baseball America ranks Burnett as a better prospect than Slama anyway.
Burnett is a "smallish right-hander" (6 feet, 190 pounds) who came on last season with a move to the bullpen. Working in short stints, his velocity is around 93 mph with occasional gusts to 95. He also throws a straight change to lefties, who really struggled with him last season. (LH's hit just .150 off him in two levels, High A and Double A.)
Key sentence in BA's write-up: "Burnett will become a big league bullpen factor when he improves his breaking ball command."
It wouldn't hurt if he became a factor starting Monday night.
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Last week's poll was about how many games Michael Cuddyer will play in center field.
The consensus appears to be: Not many. Fifteen (38 percent) said less than five games; 13 (33 percent) said five to 14; seven (17 percent) said 15 to 24; and four (10 percent) said at least 25.
Twenty-five games would be almost one a week, and that's not going to happen. If Denard Span needs that much time off, the Twins will add a legitimate center fielder to their bench. I'm inclined, personally, to the less-than-five category.
New poll is up.
Applauding Jacque Jones
Jacque Jones didn't make the team this spring.And he still got ovation after ovation in the two Target Field shakedown games.
He was always a flawed player — he couldn't hit lefties, his strike zone judgment was poor, his throwing arm was subpar. He was miscast as a leadoff hitter, and then he was miscast as a right fielder.
But he was a key part of the 2001-04 team that turned the franchise from hapless to divisional champs, a team made up of flawed players with a knack for adding up to more than the sum of their parts.
I suspect that any significant player from the 2002 team who dons the Twins uni again will be warmly greeted by Minnesota fans, no matter how little they have left in the tank. Yes, even A.J. Pierzynski.
A few of the players from the 2002 playoff squad are still stars, or at least key regulars — Johan Santana, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, Pierzynski. Some of them — Corey Koskie, Brad Radke, Eddie Guardado — have retired. Others — Luis Rivas, Eric Milton, Doug Mientkiewicz — have slid into athletic senility; they haven't left, but the jobs are harder to find and keep.
But the Jones saga is a bit different from the rest. There's something endearing about his quest to come home again, his willingness from the outset to accept a bench role, or even to return to Triple A and bide his time for another chance.
Whether that chance ever comes, Jones can head to Rochester secure in the knowledge that he has a place in the hearts of Minnesota fans.
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No real surprise: Clay Condrey is going on the DL. What is a surprise: Alex Burnett is getting the roster spot, not Anthony Slama or Kyle Waldrop, the two young pitchers who were brought north for the Target Field test games, or veteran Ron Mahay.
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