Figures from bullpens past

The sour news Thursday morning for former Twins closer Joe Nathan -- a second round of Tommy John surgery -- made me realize that as difficult as this year has been for the current Twins bullpen, it's been rougher for a lot of former Twins relievers.

A quick accounting:

Nathan has faced one batter, Torii Hunter in the season opener. He struck Hunter out on a disputed call, then went on the disabled. list. On Wednesday Nathan was to throw 30 pitches on a rehab assignment. He got through 10 and walked off the mound holding his elbow. The diagnosis the next day: tears of his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator. He vows to return, but ... this will be his second ligament replacement, and the track record on repeat TJ surgeries is not good. Plus, face it, he's 40.
LaTroy Hawkins is even older (42), and had said this would be his final season. He opened as the closer for Colorado, but was stripped of the job last week. On Thursday he went on the disabled list.

Jose Mijares was released in spring training by Cincinnati. He was released the previous spring by Boston and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2013. And after he was cut by the Reds, he got hit with a 50-game suspension for a "drug of abuse." Mijares is only 30, he's left-handed, and he has a career ERA of 3.23 and a lifetime BA allowed to left-handers of .223, but he's wearing out his welcome very quickly.

Jesse Crain left the Twins after 2010, signed with the White Sox, had a big year by throwing his slider far more often, made the All-Star team in 2013 -- and got hurt before the game was played. He's since bounced from the White Sox to Tampa Bay to Houston and back to the White Sox, where he's in extended spring training.

Matt Capps was in spring training with the Braves, was released, then re-signed by the Braves. If he's still in their organization, he isn't pitching. He has just 12 professional innings in the past  two years. He's only 31, but it's not looking good.

Jared Burton, let go by the Twins, signed a minor-league deal with the Yankees, who released him during spring training, then re-signed him to another minor-league deal. This avoided paying him a retention bonus (which may have been part of the Braves' maneuvering with Capps as well). Still, we're several weeks into the season and Burton hasn't appeared in a game, majors or minors.

That's a full bullpen of former Twins mainstays who are now injured or just hanging on.

It's not all bleak for the ex-Twins. Anthony Swarzak landed with Cleveland; signed to a minor-legue contract after the Twins cut him loose, he made the major league team without benefit of an opt-out clause. But he's been the exception.

Twins pitching moves

Jared Burton served
as the closer after
Glen Perkins was
shut down in September.

The Twins removed two pitchers from the 40-man roster Wednesday, but as far as I'm concerned the most significant news involved a  pitcher who isn't on the 40.

That would be the bad medical news about Mason Melotakis, a left-hander the Twins took in the second round of the 2012 draft. Melotakis was a reliever in college; the Twins used him in the rotation in 2013 at Cedar Rapids, then returned him to the bullpen last year, He shot up to Double A by season's end, running his fastball velocity up to a reported 97 mph.

I had hopes that he'd power his way onto the major league relief corps next year. Won't happen; he had Tommy John surgery this month, so no pitching for him at least until late next year.

In more immediate news:

• The Twins declined the team option on Jared Burton, so the righty becomes a free agent. He spent three years in the Twins bullpen with ERAs of 2.18, 3.82 and 4.36. That's a pretty obvious pattern, and he'll turn 34 in June, so it wasn't a particularly surprising decision.
• The Twins sold Kris Johnson to the Hiroshima Carp in Japan. Good for Johnson, who will get a seven-figure salary, something that doesn't seem particularly likely for him in the States. Johnson had a fairly decent year at Triple A Rochester last year, but he figured to be a long way down the rotation depth list if he stuck around.

The Twins now offically have 35 slots filled on the 40, with Mike Pelfrey (60-day disabled list) still to be restored, I fully expect more deletions. 

Shuffling the pitchers

P.J. Walters collects himself before throwing his first
pitch Wednesday against the New York Yankees.

The Twins have swapped out a starting pitcher and rebranded some bullpen roles. Let's look:

P.J. Walters designated for assignment: Mike Pelfrey is coming off the disabled list to make Saturday's start. The Twitter buzz from the beat writers this week suggested that both Walters and Scott Diamond were pitching for their jobs in the Yankees series.

Diamond went 6.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned); he also had, according to Baseball reference, more groundballs than fly balls for the first time in four starts. Diamond lives on the grounders, and his GB rate this year is closer to average that top-of-the-charts, as it was last year.

For his part, Walters went five innings, allowing three runs, all earned. And it was Walters who lost his job.

Which, if it was indeed down to Diamond vs. Walters, the right choice. Neither man is gifted with overwhelming stuff, but Diamond has more markers in his favor (not the least of which is being left-handed).

Walters is out of options, and Diamond is not, but the call apparently wasn't close enough for that tow sway the decision. So now Walters enters the 10-day limbo of DFA and waits to see what happens.

Duensing, Burton slide down the bullpen hierarchy: The Twins eight-man bullpen has had two castes this season: The four late-and-close guys (closer Glen Perkins, set-up man Jared Burton, and middle men Casey Fien and Brian Duensing, who are generally used for fractional innings to get out of jams in the sixth and seventh), and the four longer men (Josh Roenicke, Anthony Swarzak and rookies Ryan Pressly and Caleb Thielbar).

Burton had a rough June (ERA 7.45 for the month) and he opened the new month by giving up three runs in one-third of an inning in Game 1 of the Yankees series.  So now Fien is supposedly going to be the eighth-inning guy while Burton works in lower-leverage situations.

It's less clear who gets the ball in Fien's customary role, which isn't exactly low-leverage. The Twins like a power arm in that job, and I would think that points to Pressly. But (a) they might prefer to give the veteran Roenicke the first shot and (b) Pressly hasn't been all that effective of late either.

Ideally Burton straightens things out quickly and reclaims the eighth-inning role. Fien may be just as good in that role as Burton, but the options for Fien's accustomed role are thin.

Caleb Thielbar has
walked seven and
allowed five hits
in his 18-plus innings.

Similarly, Thielbar has supplanted Duensing in the left-handed set-up role. Duensing, who has been death on left-handed hitters for most of his career, has not been nearly as effective this year (.292 batting average allowed to lefties).

Thielbar hasn't been charged with an earned run yet in the majors (18.2 innings), although he has allowed some inherited runners to score. Nor, through 16 games, has he ever been brought in with a lead.

So far, Ron Gardenhire has used Thielbar much as he used Craig Breslow in 2008. Dennys Reyes was Gardy's primary LOOGY (Left-handed One-Out GuY), and the manager wouldn't use Breslow in game situations. Pigeonholing Breslow into low-leverage situations only was one reason the Twins didn't win the divisional title that year.

The Twins aren't winning the division this year no matter how Thielbar is used. But maybe a lesson has been learned.

The decline of Jared Burton

Jared Burton, Ron Gardenhire's first choice for eighth innings, had another poor performance Monday night.

He entered with a 4-3 lead, faced four batters, surrendered three hits and was charged with three runs and his sixth loss of the season.

He didn't walk anybody, but a quick look at his statistics suggests that control, or lack of same, is a significant part of his problem. Last year, in 62 innings, Burton walked 16 men; he's already walked that many this season, in 35.2 innings.

It should be noted that his walk rate this year (4 BB/9 innings) is about what he had for his career other than 2012, suggesting that last year was a bit of a fluke.

Burton was very good in April and May, but June was not kind to him (7.45 ERA) and obviously July is off to a bad start.

Which raises the question: If it's time to switch to somebody else for the main setup role, who would it be?

Burton himself has been worked at a harder pace this year than last, and he's not the only hard-used reliever in the Minnesota bullpen. Five Twins are among the top 40 in the league in relief innings, with Anthony Swarzak leading the list with 52.2 innings. Rookie Ryan Pressly, who I think will eventually take a significant late inning role, is perhaps showing some signs of wear; he's given up runs in each of his last four outings, and his ERA has more than doubled during that stretch.

Too many bad starts, too many bullpen innings. It's not a good recipe.

Notes, quotes and comment

Jared Burton had
career highs in games,
innings, saves and
holds in 2012.

One aspect of the Twins' busy end-of-the-winter-meetings I hadn't commented on (until now) was the new multi-year contract for Jared Burton — two years for $5.5 million, plus a club option for 2015.

Burton turns 32 in June and he's had a career threatening injury, so it's no surprise he'd take such a deal.  $5.5 million is life-changing money, and if he stays healthy and effective enough to make it worthwhile for the Twins to pick up that 2015 option, the whole package exceeds $9 million.

For the Twins, even with the third year, it's basically what they used to pay middle relievers Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier before they hit free agency.

The only question is if they can keep Burton healthy. Ron Gardenhire handled Burton carefully in 2012; it will be interesting to see if he continues to avoid using Burton on back-to-back days next year. Terry Ryan has tried to deepen the bullpen with the additions of Josh Roenicke, Tim Wood and Ryan Pressley to holdovers Casey Fien, Alex Burnett and Anthony Swarzak; that should help protect Burton.

---

The free agent starter who was highest on my wish list for the Twins, Brandon McCarthy, signed Friday with Arizona — pending a physical, which, with his injury history, may not be a matter of routine.

McCarthy got essentially the same deal as Joe Blanton did with Anaheim: two years, $15.5 million. They are rather different pitchers. McCarthy's career highs for starts and innings are 25 and 170; Blanton has had only one year under 175 innings since 2005. McCarthy's innings are generally of higher quality. Blanton provides more innings.

The market values each evenly. In the specific case of the Twins, who need quality innings more than bulk innings, McCarthy would have been more valuable.

Obviously, the Twins landed neither. Still out there from my three names are John Lannan and Shawn Marcum.

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How good a prospect is Trevor May?

The initial reaction in the Twins blogosphere to the Ben Revere trade was to view May as roughly equivalent to Alex Meyer, the prospect the Twins got in in the Denard Span trade. May and Vance Worley, the quasi-established starter the Twins got for Revere, would thus be a better return.

But ... Jim Callis of Baseball America tweeted Friday that May, who was in BA's Top 100 prospects last spring, won't be in the list when it comes out. May's command is a big enough problem to knock his status down considerably.

I still like the deal for the Twins; Worley alone is probably worth surrendering Revere, and May is a decent lottery ticket. If he harnesses his stuff, it becomes a very good trade.

But Meyer is easily the better prospect.

Notes on the bullpen

Brian Duensing pitches on Opening Day in Baltimore.

For the second straight season, the Twins have a drastically reworked — and significantly cheaper — bullpen than in the season before.

A few observations:

* The Twins have a lousy record, but that's not really the bullpen's fault. There is one loss that can clearly be pinned to poor relief work, that being last Sunday, when Glen Perkins — the brightest light in the 2011 'pen — got lit up by Texas.

* I was struck Monday evening by the radar-gun readings when Brian Duensing pitched in the bottom of the eighth. The ESPN broadcast showed several readings of 95 mph, which seemed a bit high for Duensing.

So I checked the readings as provided by MLB via its iPad app, and it too gave numbers in the mid 90s. Some were 94, some were 95, but the idea is the same: Duesning was throwing with markedly more velocity than we're accustomed to seeing.

He had a longer stint on Wednesday (one day of rest) and the velocity readings on his fastball topped out at 93— a bit lower than on Monday, but still higher than as a starter.

This is not unusual for starters-turned-relievers; Glen Perkins at times last season, when given multiple days off, came out throwing 97. Duensing, so far as I know, isn't reaching those levels.

* Duensing, of course, lost his spot in the starting rotation in large part because he was so ineffective against right-handed hitters. Through Thursday night he had faced 24 hitters in 2012, 16 right and eight left; that's hardly sufficient evidence to judge if he's fixed that problem. But so far, right-handers are hitting .286/.375/.286 against him, lefties .250/.250/.250.

When he was effective as a starter, it was because he was keeping the ball in the park. That nobody's gotten an extra-base hit off him so far is an encouraging sign.

*Alex Burnett had two shutout innings Thursday and has now worked 8.1 innings without being charged with a run. More striking is that he hasn't walked a hitter yet; control was always an issue for him in 2010-11.

*Jeff Gray and Duensing are the men brought in most often with runners on base. Duensing has stranded four of his five inherited runners; Gray six of his eight. Jared Burton has stranded all three of his inherited runners.

Contemplating Jared Burton

Jared Burton faced
the heart of the
Red Sox order and
got the job done.

The Twins have already dismissed several of the hard-throwers they brought in to compete for bullpen jobs.

Prominent among those remaining in camp is Jared Burton, who had some success with Cincinnati before arm problems and other ailments befell him. He's in camp as a non-roster invitee, and doing well.

The Monday print column was about the extreme need for context when looking at spring training stats, and so my ears perked up Monday afternoon when Burton came in.

Nobody out, Jacoby Ellsbury on first, and Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis coming up. That's some serious lumber.

Burton navigated it successfully, if not in quite the manner one might expect or even hope for. Pedroia hit a liner that Burton deflected; Alexi Casilla and Jamey Carroll turned it into a force out at second. Gonzalez popped out to center. Youkilis walked. David Ortiz -- more serious lumber -- then struck out.

Burton had more trouble with the two righties he faced than the two lefties. Considering that the Twins are in specific need of somebody they can use to target right-handed hitters, that's not ideal. But getting three outs from those four isn't shabby.