Notes, quotes and comment

Clete Thomas' slash
line with the Twins
in 2012: .143/.172/
.286, with 16 strikeouts
in 29 plate appearances.

The Twins will fill the 25-man roster spot they opened after Sunday's game with Clete Thomas, an outfielder who got some time with the Twins last year after the Tigers waived him. To make room on the 40 for Thomas, they designated Tyler Robertson for assignment.

I'm not impressed with this move. Remember, it is my belief that everything the Twins do should have 2014 (or even further out) as the primary concern. Thomas is 29 and nothing more than a marginal player. There is no long-term purpose to giving him playing time. The only immediate benefit to giving him PT would be from sitting Aaron Hicks against righties, and that would be counterproductive to the long term goals.

Thomas has had a very productive April and May for Rochester (.296/.385/.576), but there's nothing in his track record that says he's that good.

Not that the possibility of losing Robertson concerns me very much. He's left-handed and breathing, a combination that gives him a chance. He's also a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY) who isn't consistent with his breaking ball, a combination that wrecks chances.

Tyler Robertson
opened the season
with the Twins but
was sent out after
two appearances.

He had a 3.05 ERA in Rochester, which looks OK, but he walked 16 men in 20.2 innings, which is definitely not OK.

The Twins now have 10 days to dispose of Robertson's contract. Somebody may claim him on waivers — he is, after all, left-handed and breathing — but I wouldn't be surprised if he clears waivers and remains in the Twins system.

---

Joe Mauer returned to the No. 2 spot in the batting order during the series with Seattle, and Ron Gardenhire indicated that he'll stay there because he gets more RBI chances as the No. 2 hitter.

Right decision, wrong reason.

Consider the three guys hitting in front of Mauer on Sunday: Hicks (on-base percentage .246); Pedro Florimon (.331, which is much better than I expected); and Eduardo Escobar (.274). Drop Mauer to the third hole, and the three hitters are probably going to be Florimon, Escobar and either Hicks or Brian Dozier (.276).

Not a lot of RBI opportunities either way.

No, the gain from hitting Mauer second is more plate appearances for Mauer, Josh Willingham, etc. as the middle of the lineup moves up, and fewer plate appearances for one of the outmakers.

---

Reports Sunday evening had two prominent collegiate pitching prospects in this week's draft field testing positive for a banned stimulant. One of them is Jonathan Gray, the Oklahoma right-hander generally seen as one of the top two prospects in the field; the other, Aaron Blair of Marshall, is No. 41 in Baseball America's draft list, which would put him high in the second round.

BA doesn't expect the test results to affect either man's draft status.

On second thought ...

Twins LOOGY Tyler Robertson stands on the mound
as Baltimore's Chris Davis runs his grand slam home in
the eighth inning Friday.

It's one of the hazards of posting an opinion pretty much every day: Occasionally (at best) one winds up with an assertion that is swiftly disproven.

So it is with Friday's claim that the Twins starting pitching has protected the bullpen. And that Casey Fien has been too effective to consider demoting. And that Tyler Robertson's Thursday strikeout of Prince Fielder demonstrated his value.

That was written after the Twins used six relievers on Thursday when Mike Pelfrey went just 5.1 innings. On Friday, Liam Hendriks went just 4.2 innings, and Ron Gardenhire burned through four relievers to get though that game. Brian Duensing, Ryan Pressly, Fien and Robertson all worked back-to-back games, and the first three are likely to be unavailable today. Seven pitchers are too many; 12 are not enough.

Fien, who struck out four of the first five men he faced this season, was touched for four runs in the eight inning Friday.

And Robertson gave up a grand slam — to a left-handed hitter — on his second-best pitch.

This is deadly for a Left-handed One Out GuY such as Robertson. He is on the roster to wipe left-handed hitters out. But he has now surrendered three home runs in his brief major league career to lefties — Fielder, Adam Dunn and Chris Davis. These are all potent power hitters, to be sure — but they are all noticeably less effective against left-handed pitching (Davis' career platoon differential is less extreme than the others'). Such hitters are the reason LOOGYs dot rosters.

Robertson has to get them out. He certainly can't give up bombs to lefties, no matter how good they are. His job is to dominate small sample sizes.

One bad inning — and the Fien-Robertson eighth inning on Friday was a bad one indeed — turned around the entire short-term outlook. Two consecutive short starts have exposed the lack of a legitimate long man on this staff.

Circumstances can change, I said at the end of Friday's post. Yes they can. And yes they have.

Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson and bullpen roles

Alex Burnett's
strikeout rate has
dropped from 7.0
K/9 in 2010 to
4.5 in 2012.

So ... this morning the Twins optioned Alex Burnett to the minors. This leaves 28 players in camp, but non-roster guys Rich Harden and Rafael Perez are clearly not ready to pitch yet (Perez has thrown some batting practice and Harden has started working off the mound), and the presumption is that Tim Wood will go on the disabled list.

If in fact Wood is out of the immediate picture, the bullpen looks like this:

Closer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jared Burton
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Brian Duensing
MR 1: Casey Fien
MR 2: Ryan Pressly
LOOGY 2: Tyler Robertson
Long: Josh Roenicke

Quite possibly Ron Gardenhire and Co. would flip-flop Pressly and Roenicke. In practice, I don't think there's going to be much distinction; Roenicke can't give them two innings every day, and there's going to be too much work for one long man with this starting rotation. Pressley's going to work more long relief and mop-up than meaningful outs for a while.

Neither Burnett nor Robertson had good stat lines this spring, not that eight innings or so proves anything. I do regard the choice of Robertson as a more realistic one. The Twins (at least until Scott Diamond returns) have an all-right-handed rotation, most of whom will need early relief help. Robertson gives them a lefty to use to get out of those fifth- and sixth -nning jams while saving Duensing for the seventh or eighth.

Robertson may be too inconsistent to be a truly good LOOGY, but he's better equipped for the job than any of the right-handers. Probably.

Bullpens are always works in progress, and with Anthony Swarzak and Wood presumably somewhere on the rehab trail, there will certainly be some changes made before April ends.

As for Burnett ... regular readers know that I've grown increasingly skeptical of his value. When he came up, I envisioned him becoming a new version of Juan Rincon, who gave the Twins three very good seasons of set-up work. It hasn't happened for Burnett. His strikeout rate has fallen each year in the majors, and while his walk rate has fallen also, it's still too high.

---

Byron Buxton, the No 2 overall draft pick last June, made the trip to Bradenton, Fla., for the nooner exhibition with the Pirates. As with Miguel Sano last week (and again Tuesday), this has nothing to do with competing for a big-league spot this year. Just a glimpse for Gardy and Crew, and a reward for Buxton.

Notes, quotes and comment

Tim Wood had a
2.19 ERA in 70
innings in Triple A.

Tampa Bay ran at will late in Tuesday's exhibition game against the Twins, and that doesn't bode well for the two relief pitchers involved, Tim Wood and Tyler Robertson.

This was the second time this spring that Ron Gardenhire has commented on Wood's inability to limit the running game. We may be seeing why Wood never got a call-up by the Pirates last year even as he had a dominant season in Triple A.

Few teams run the bases as aggressively as the Rays, but man -- stealing home in a first-week-of-March exhibition? Robertson should be embarrassed.

---

Ten Baseball America staffers predicted in the latest issue which teams would have the top three draft picks in 2014 — which is another way of predicting the three worst teams of 2013.

All ten picked the Houston Astros to have the first pick — which would make three straight seasons of having the worst record in baseball.

Four of the 10 had the Twins picking second; three others had them picking third. Not a lot of optimism about the Twins from that bunch. (The Marlins also had four saying they'd be picking second in 2014 and three third.)

---

The Twins minor leaguers were due in camp Tuesday, with minor league exhibitions getting under way this weekend. The first cuts in major league camp figure to come then, but with a dozen guys gone for the World Baseball Classic, those cuts may not be very deep.

Most likely to be sent to the minor league camp, in my estimation: RHPs B.J. Hermsen, Trevor May and Mike Tonkin, IF Danny Santana, C Josmil Pinto. They're all 40-man roster players with options who have little to no chance of opening the season in Minnesota, which makes them prime targets for early demotion.  If they get hurt in major league camp, they go on the major league disabled list, get paid a major-league salary and earn service time.

Brian Duensing as a bullpen cornerstone

The Twins have a lot of openings in their starting rotation.

Not so with their bullpen.

Even without Matt Capps (who'll be a free agent with the Twins declining his option), Carlos Gutierrez (claimed on waivers by the Cubs) and Kyle Waldrop and Luis Perdomo (outrighted), the Twins can still fully stock their relief corps effectively with the pitchers on hand.

Brian Duensing had
a good season as a
relief pitcher, a poor
one as a starter.

Assuming, that is, that Brian Duensing is a reliever rather than a starter.

Closeer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jarrod Burton
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Duensing
MR 1: Casey Fein
LOOGY 2: Tyler Robertson
MR 2: Alex Burnett
Long man: Anthony Swarzak

Nothing wrong at all with the top four, or with the long man. The weak spots are Burnett, whose good 2012 ERA (3.53) is out of whack with his lousy walk and strikeout rates; and Robertson, who hung a few too many sliders to good left-handed power hitters and got burned. As the fifth and sixth men in a bullpen, they're acceptable, but not in more prominent roles.

But Duensing is supposed to be a contender for the starting rotation, and if he's not in the 'pen, the Twins lack a good southpaw specialist. Robertson has the stuff for that job, but not the consistency. I would be reluctant to make him the primary lefty in the bullpen.

The rotation is, correctly, the primary concern. But if the Twins seriously consider Duensing part of the solution -- and I'm not sure he is -- they would do well to have an alternative to him in the bullpen. It's something to keep an eye on this offseason.

Eye on 2013: Tyler Robertson

Tyler Robertson
has allowed just 20
hits in 24 major league
innings, but four of
them have been
home runs.

From all appearances, the Twins 2013 bullpen will feature Glen Perkins in the closer's role, which means that he won't be called upon to get crucial outs in the seventh or eighth innings.

Of the pitchers on hand, there are two options for that job: Brian Duensing, who may be used instead in the rotation, and Tyler Robertson.

Assume that Duesning is rotation bound. Is Robertson really the lefty one wants to entrust with key at-bats late in games?

Robertson has worked 24 innings for the Twins since his call-up -- 24 innings spread out over 37 games, statistical evidence that he's used as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY). He has an ERA of 5.63, which is definitely unimpressive, and 25 strikeouts, which is impressive. He's also allowed four homers, which is one every six innings, and that's a high rate.

Twenty-four innings is not much of a sample size, but it's what we have to work with. And it can be argued that the job of a short reliever is to dominate small sample sizes.

Robertson has faced 67 lefties so far and just 38 righties -- again, he's a LOOGY, and Ron Gardenhire has been adept at getting him the matchups he should be effective in. 

Left-handers are hitting .186/.258/.305, which is ... awesome. He's struck out 21 of those 67 left-handed hitters, and that's also very good. He's allowed two homers to lefties, but at least they were allowed to legit power hitters (Prince Fielder and Adam Dunn). 

Right-handers are hitting .300/447/.500. Nine hits, two of them homers, and eight walks (although three of the walks were intentional). 

My take at this point: To be a truly useful late-inning reliever, Robertson needs to be better at keeping the ball in the park, and he needs to be able to do something against right-handed hitters. 

I think he'd be a better fit as the no. 2 non-closing lefty than as the top option.  But doing that means either committing to Duesning in the bullpen, which the Twins seem unwilling to do at this point, or bringing in another lefty arm -- and that might complicate things if Duensing winds up back in the pen in spring training. 

Late night: Seattle 3, Twins 2

Don't give Phil Cuzzi too big a piece of your mind,
Gardy, you may need it later.

Game story here

Box score here

I love watching Scott Diamond pitch, and this was in many ways a typical Diamond start. He threw strikes (64 percent); he got ground balls (the MLB box score says nine GB outs, two fly ball outs); he didn't walk anybody. It feels like nitpicking to note the low strikeout tally (two), but the Ks matter.

Diamond entered the game with the lowest walk rate among qualifiers in the majors, 1.3 walks per nine innings. He lowered that slightly Saturday.

But Jason Vargas has a very similar start for Seattle. Both lefties threw 6.2 innings, both allowed nine baserunners, both had just two strikeouts. MLB says Vargas got 10 GB outs, four flyouts.

But Vargas kept the ball in the park; Diamond gave up a home run.

Ultimately, the game came down to Tyler Robertson, who continues to struggle as the Minnesota LOOGY. He came in for the ninth and gave up a single to leadoff man Michael Saunders (lefty); couldn't get the out on Brendan Ryan's bunt; and walked Dustin Ackley (lefty).

Two left-handed hitters and a right-hander who was trying to give away an out, and he got none of them.

As the Twins look toward 2013, that job is one that needs an upgrade from its current holder, whether by returning Brian Duesning to the role, finding a different performer or finding a way to make Robertson more effective.

Contemplating Tyler Robertson

Big Tyler Robertson struck out the first
four men he faced. Then he yielded
four singles.

Brian Duensing is the scheduled starter tonight; it will be his second turn in the rotation after spending the first two-and-a-half months in the bullpen.

It seems clear that this is not intended to be a temporary gig for Duensing. Ron Gardenhire and Co. liked what they saw of him as a starter in 2009 and 2010, and the Twins are in sufficient need of competent starters that he's going to get a clear shot at the job he coughed up in 2011.

There are a number of ramifications to this, not least of which is the need for a second lefty in the bullpen. Glen Perkins is either the closer or the eighth inning guy, and with him held back for the late innings and Duensing in the rotation, Gardy wants/needs a LOOGY to deal with left-handed sticks in earlier innings.

Tyler Robertson is the first in line for the job. The hulking rookie — 6-5, 255 pounds, or so he's listed — had an auspicious debut Tuesday, striking out the first three men he faced: Alejandro De Aza (lefty), Kevin Youkilis (righty) and Adam Dunn (lefty). Robertson worked again Wednesday, and fanned De Aza again before allowed four straight singles. Two of them, however, where "swinging bunt" squibbers that Trevor Plouffe couldn't make plays on at third base, and another was a broken bat single.

So the stat line after two outings is pretty ugly: 1.2 innings, four hits, two runs and an ERA of 10.80.

More noteworthy, I think, are the four strikeouts. He's shown a quality slider, and having that breaking ball with which to torment left-handed hitters is half the battle in the LOOGY role.

Two things must happen for Robertson to keep the job, only one of which is within his control. He has to pitch well, particularly against left-handed hitters; and Duensing has to get right-handers out consistently as a starter. If Duensing reverts to his 2011 struggles against righties, he won't stick in the rotation.

Reorganizing the bullpen

Unlike 2011, the Twins bullpen this year has been effective and, as a result, stable. Other than swapping out Matt Maloney for Jeff Manship as a mop-up/long man -- the least important role in the 'pen -- the relief corps has remained essentially the same.

This is no longer true. Brian Duensing has been moved to the starting rotation, and Matt Capps is headed to the disabled list, with Tyler Robertson called up.

Tyler Robertson
was a third-round
draft pick in 2006.

Capps will never be loved by the fan base, but he is a competent closer, and his presence allowed the trio of Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Duensing to fill up the seventh and eighth innings with outs.

Now it all gets shaken up. Capps is out of the picture for at least two weeks, and Robertson gets a trial as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY).

Burton got the save Sunday, but I think that was because Perkins was then the only lefty in the bullpen, and manager Ron Gardenhire wanted to save him in case he needed somebody to match up against Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, Cincinnati's left-handed power.

Gardenhire likes set roles. Robertson provides a second southpaw. I think Perkins is the ninth-inning guy for now.

Here's how I see the new roles:

Alex Burnett: 2-0
with four holds in 2012.

Closer: Perkins
Set-up 1: Burton
Set-up 2/Middle relief 1: Alex Burnett
LOOGY: Robertson
MR2: Jeff Gray
MR3: Anthony Swarzak
Long man: Manship

Other than Robertson and Perkins, the big promotion here would be Burnett. He's appeared in 29 games, 36 innings, with an ERA of exactly 2.00. He hasn't given up a run since May 23rd; he's allowed just two hits this month (7.2 IP).


That ERA overstates his effectiveness; his strikeout rate is just 3.8 per nine innings. At least one of those numbers -- the ERA or the strikeout rate -- is going to get higher. He's gotten outs, so his role is increasing, but it's difficult to sustain the outs with such a low K rate.