Most of what they needed

My wish list for the Twins in the midseason trade period was a couple of bullpen arms to help Taylor Rogers in the late innings.

They got that in Sergio Romo (on July 27) and Sam Dyson (on Wednesday).

Neither is left-handed, so that box went unchecked. And the Twins were apparently fishing in starting-pitcher waters as well but came up empty there.

I'm fine with that. The 2019 Twins aren't in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and at most three starters good enough to push Kyle Gibson down in the playoff rotation moved -- Zack Greinke, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Greinke had the Twins on his no-trade clause, and I can't imagine Cleveland trading Bauer to the team they're chasing. That leaves Stroman, and I'm not convinced he's better than Gibson.

A deal for a controllable starter would have given the front office a head start on rebuilding the 2020 rotation, but they'll have to deal with that problem in the off season.

For here and now, the Twins have a stiffer bullpen than they had coming out of the All-Star break.

The @Twins announced today that they have acquired RHP Sam Dyson from the Giants in exchange for minor league outfielder Jaylin Davis and right-handed pitchers Prelander Berroa and Kai-Wei Teng.

Dyson will join the #MNTwins tomorrow in Miami.

— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) July 31, 2019

This Fangraphs piece calls Dyson the best reliever moved at the deadline this year.  He's not a big name (like Craig Kimbrel), but he's also not a ego trip who wants to be used only in one-inning save situations (like Kimbrel). He and Romo are an upgrade over the departed Blake Parker as right-handed complements to Rogers.

I view the Twins bullpen as three groups:

• The late-inning guys: Dyson, Rogers, Romo
• The middle men: Tyler Duffey, Ryne Harper, Trevor May
• The kids: Lewis Thorpe and Cody Stashak (I'm assuming Sean Poppen will be demoted today to make room for Dyson).

I'm good with that bullpen. I'll be even more satisfied if Thorpe emerges as a second lefty weapon.

Notes, quotes and comment

A good bit of roster shuffling before and after the Twins' loss Wednesday to the Astros:

• Optioned to Triple A Rochester before the game: reliever Tyler Duffey and outfielder Jake Cave.
• Promoted from Rochester: starter Kohl Stewart and reliever Fernando Romero
• Activated from the disabled list and optioned to Rochester: Reliever Gabriel Moya
• Optioned to Triple A Rochester after the game: Stewart
• A corresponding move will be made before the Twins next game on Friday.

Stewart's line score is unimpressive: six innings, eight hits, five runs, three walks, one strikeout. But he did give the Twins some length. They got though the game without using, or even warming up, any of their bullpen's Big Four. There is some value in that.

---

For one game, at least, the Twins had a 13-man pitching staff. It's back down to 12 with Stewart's return to the minors, but it will be 13 again if, as I expect, Matt Magill is called up Friday. Magill was pulled from Rochester's game Wednesday after seven pitches.

Magill would give the Twins eight relievers on the active roster. Of more importance: Will somebody emerge as a fifth reliable arm? They need some quality out of the quanity.

My guess is that Romero is going to get some opportunity to claim such a role. He has the arm for it. Whether he has the command and composure is unclear.

---

So the Twins won just one of the three games in Houston. No shame in that. Stewart vs. Verlander was not a prime matchup for the Twins in the rubber game; Verlander's going to the Hall of Fame when his career ends, and Stewart is not.

It was to have been Jose Berrios vs. Verlander, but Friday's rainout pushed Berrios' start to Saturday and messed up the rotation, which is why the Twins needed somebody for Wednesday night. As it turned out, Berrios would have needed a shutout to beat Verlander. 

The Twins still had a winning road trip to Baltimore and Houston. Now they get those same two teams at home. And -- of course -- the weather is about to turn chilly again in Minnesota.

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Perhaps you saw the frightening video of former Twins bullpen prospect Nick Burdi, now with Pittsburgh, throwing a pitch and collapsing on the mound clutching his elbow in pain.

The news out of Pittsburgh the next day was surprisingly optimistic. Burdi may not even need surgery. But he described the biceps pain as “It was just kind of a sensation that you never forget,” and the Pirates have not revealed the results if the post-injury examinations.

Burdi still has his Rule 5 limitations in place, so he could, theoretically, wind up back with the Twins. But Pittsburgh has invested some time in him, and we'll see how this all plays out.

Random thoughts on the Twins opener

I understand and even agreed with Paul Molitor's decision to pinch-hit for Byron Buxton in the ninth inning, and the move obviously worked. But if the Twins are to get where they want to go, Buxton has to be the kind of hitter you don't even consider pinch-hitting for with the game on the line.

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Welcome to the Fernando Rodney Experience. The veteran did a nice job getting out of an inherited jam in the 10th, only to serve up a first-pitch gopher ball to open the next inning.

The rebuilt back of the bullpen was a mixed bag. Addison Reed dominated in two innings of work; Zach Duke struck out four men in his one inning but also allowed two runs; and Trevor Hildenberger had trouble throwing strikes.

Duke, a lefty specialist throughout his bullpen career, faced a string of right-handed hitters, culminating with the two-run triple by the light-hitting Caleb Joseph. I suspect that by the time the season is over, Molitor will be more wary of that kind of useage of Duke.

---

The Baltimore Orioles had Chris Davis leading off. This is a far cry from tradition; Davis is a slow slugger. The closest thing in Buck Showalter's starting nine to an old-school flyboy, Craig Gentry, hit eighth. Which is pretty much where Gentry should hit.

The Birds just stack one power hitter after another. The Twins kept them in the park for 10 innings. They just didn't score enough themselves in that time frame.

Brandon Kintzler, closer -- and other bullpen notes

So ... Wednesday's game was tied after eight innings, and when the Twins were hitting in the top of the ninth, Fernando Abad started warming up. Then Max Kepler homered -- and Abad sat down and Brandon Kintzler started to loosen.

Why? Obviously, because it was now a save situation -- and Brandon Kintzler, with or without a public declaration from manager Paul Molitor, is now the closer. This was, really, a more decisive announcement than saying something to the beat writers. Managers frequently say one thing and do something else. This action spoke loudly.

Abad got a save shortly after Kevin Jepsen, now departed, was removed from the glory job, but the bulk of the save opportunities have gone to Kintzler, and he's done something with it -- six saves in six tries, plus a hold. He hasn't coughed up a lead yet. (He's now one behind Jepsen for the team lead.)

The Twins made a small adjustment to their bullpen after the game, announcing that Neil Ramirez had been outrighted to Rochester -- meaning that he'd cleared waivers -- and Buddy Boshers had been recalled. I registered a mild beef when Boshers was optioned out earlier this month, but I also predicted he's be back before August. And so he is.

Boshers gives the Twins three lefties in their seven-man bullpen: Abad, Taylor Rogers and Boshers. The righties are Kintzler, Trevor May, Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin. I don't know who Molitor considers his long man in that crew, but this formulation is unlikely to survive the month anyway. 

Ron Gardenhire's bullpen use

Anthony Swarzak:
48 games in relief,
96 innings — an
unusual workload
in a 2013 bullpen.

Monday's post -- about the uniqueness of some of the in-game strategies of departed veteran managers Dusty Baker, Davey Johnson and Jim Leyland -- led me to take a quick look at Ron Gardenhire's entry in the just-released Bill James Handbook.

Gardy didn't led the league in anything, but one thing about 2013 jumped out at me, and I'm surprised I didn't notice it when it was happening: he had a career low in the use of relief pitchers on consecutive days. In fact, only four AL managers, five in all of the majors, had a lower figure than his 78.

Heavy use of relievers on consecutive days had been a hallmark of Gardenhire's, although he has only once led the league in that (2008, with 115; he matched that number the following season).

I'm inclined to blame/credit the change on the circumstances. The Twins didn't have a lot of four-game winning streaks, or or six-wins-in-seven-days stretches; those are the kind of short runs that have often had Gardenhire going to his top relievers day after day. 

And this year, Gardenhire used his long men (Anthony Swarzak and Ryan Pressly) as true long men. Swarzak had 10 relief outings of at least three innings, Pressly seven; without attempting to actually research it, it feels like Gardenhire didn't have 10 such outings from his entire bullpen for his managerial career. (Swarzak led the majors in relief innings; Pressly tied for fourth in the AL.)

Glen Perkins pitched 16 times on consecutive days, as did Casey Fien; Jared Burton and Brian Duensing 14 each. Pressly and Swarzak? One apiece.

The continuing pitching staff shuffle

... to Alex Burnett

From Eric Hacker ...

.. to Anthony Swarzak ...

After playing just two games in five days, the Twins bullpen figured to be well rested. After playing three games in two days -- three games in which the three starters pitched about 12 of the 27 innings -- the bullpen is shot.

Eric Hacker was supposed to start the second game Thursday, but he had to pick up the mess left Wednesday by Francisco Liriano. He got shipped back to Rochester so that Anthony Swarzak could make that Thursday start, which seems harsh, but Hacker was probably going back to Triple A when Kevin Slowey came off the DL soon anyway.

Swarzak was probably still wet from his post-game shower when the Twins sent him back to Rochester and recalled Alex Burnett to get a fresher arm in the bullpen. Which raised the question in my mind: Why not Slowey?

The answer came today from Ron Gardenhire: The leash on Liriano is pretty short. He said on Reusse and Mackey today that he and pitching coach Rick Anderson are examining their options with Liriano. The preferred one, of course, is to straighten Liriano out. But Slowey is being stretched out now with an eye to returning him to the rotation in Liriano's stead, and Gardenhire implied that would happen if Liriano flounders in his next start.

Let's examine that notion. Somebody gets sent to Rochester when Slowey is activated, probably either Burnett or Dusty Hughes (7.84 ERA so far, with 19 baserunners in 10.1 innings). Moving Liriano to the bullpen suggests the demotee should be Hughes, since the Twins appear reluctant to devote the majority of the bullpen jobs to lefties.

Here's the problem: This would devote two of the seven bullpen slots to recovery projects (Liriano and Joe Nathan) and another to Burnett, who has not earned a key role in his previous major league stints.

That''s a lot of arms for the manager to try to avoid using in game situations. Nathan's been effective in his two most recent outings, but is he really ready for key outs? I have my doubts.

A scrambled bullpen

Joe Nathan got his first save since Oct. 3, 2009. It wasn't easy.

Some interesting bullpen use decisions Sunday by Ron Gardenhire as the Twins got their first win of 2011.

6th inning. Nick Blackburn gives up a home run to Jose Bautista, then retires Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. He should have gotten Edwin Encarnacion too, but Danny Valencia made a poor throw. With the left-handed Travis Snider up and the tying run on, Gardy went to Jose Mijares, who fanned Snider.

Blackburn had thrown just 93 pitches, but he wasn't given the chance to get Snider.

7th inning: Mijares opens the inning by walking the first two men. With the tying and go-ahead men on, Gardenhire brings in Matt Capps, who wriggles out of the jam (sac bunt, comebacker to the mound, fly to center).

8th inning: Enter Glen Perkins for a one-two-three inning.

9th inning: Here comes Joe Nathan, the first of the four relievers to have a two-run cushion. Nathan throws 31 pitches, just 15 strikes (at least officially; I believe he twice struck Bautista out, but the home plate ump didn't agree). With one run in, the bases loaded and the left-handed Lind up, Gardenhire considers bringing in Dusty Hughes; he sticks with Nathan, and Nathan gets the grounder to end it.

What's interesting here? Everything. Mijares and Capps — the top top set up men — were both brought in before the eighth inning and with men on base. Perkins, who probably came out of camp as the third lefty in the pen, got the eight-inning honors. And Nathan was given all the rope Gardenhire had.

It all worked. I applaud the early use of Mijares and Capps in game situations. That essentially forced Gardenhire to come up with a third set-up option. The use of Perkins rather than Hughes in the eighth suggests that Perkins has moved ahead of Hughes in the pecking order. Perkins' success in that outing probably means he'll get more opportunities.

The decision to stick with Nathan is pure Gardenhire. Lind rakes righties and is almost helpless against lefties (career slash line .290/.343./.520 vs. RHP, .218/.265/.344 vs LHP). Couple the numbers with Nathan's struggles, and there's plenty of reason to go to the southpaw.

I surmise Gardenhire wanted to show confidence in Nathan and thus build Nathan's confidence in himself. It would have been real easy for that to backfire — Lind drills a single to drive in two runs, and there's nothing positive from the outing for Nathan.

But again – it all worked.

Another bullpen candidate added

Just when we figured the Twins had finished tinkering with their 40-man roster this winter ... they add Dusty Hughes, a LOOGY candidate with experience.

The initial reaction to the news is: If the Kansas City Royals waived him, what's the point in claiming him?

And that may be the final reaction as well. But it's not that difficult to see the appeal here. The Twins had three left-handed bullpen candidates on their 40-man roster -- Jose Mijares, who has repeatedly reported to camp out of shape; Glen Perkins, who does not have a track record of getting left-handers out; and Scott Diamond, a Rule 5 draftee.

The Twins waived Rob Delaney to make room on their 40 for Hughes, and it's a lot easier to imagine a scenario in which Hughes makes the 25-man roster than one in which Delaney makes it.

I don't know if Hughes has options left, and I certainly don't know why the Royals picked him to dump to open a roster spot for Jeff Francis. They would seem to have bigger bullpen problems than him. Which isn't to say he's a good pickup. His stats suggest his control isn't up to Twins standards, and he wasn't all that effective against left-handers last year (.261 batting average allowed).

He's left-handed and breathing. He adds to the Twins' options in their bullpen reconstruction project. If the Twins saw something there they can use more effectively than the Royals did, great; if he bombs, they invested little in acquiring him.

Capps vs.Crain, Fuentes, Guerrier and/or Rauch

Jon Rauch: The one
rated Twins free agent
reliever who didn't
find a multi-year deal.

Nick Nelson went on a rant about the Matt Capps contract, and there is truth in his core complaint: Matt Capps is going to get in excess of $7 million next season because of the save statistic.

It is an article of faith in the "real" baseball world that the ninth inning is different from the others, and it is equally an article of faith in the sabermetric world that saves are overrated. I see truth in both positions, and lean more to the sabermetric view -- but in the real world, the designated closer has driven the closer by committee to virtual extinction. Managers prefer, for a variety of reasons, to run their bullpens around the save, and that makes the stat overvalued.

Where Nelson (and he's not alone in this error) goes wrong in his rant is in assessing the alternatives. From his post:

Phil Mackey astutely pointed out that the team could have kept two of its other departed relievers by not tendering Capps a contract ...

Basic math problem. Seven million dollars is not $12 million, which is what Matt Guerrier signed for, and what Jesse Crain signed for. Seven million dollars is not $10 million, which is was Brian Fuentes got. It is more than Jon Rauch's $3.75 million, but there is no math that makes the free agent contracts any two of those four add up to less than Capps' deal, even on a one-year basis. 

On a one-year basis, it's close, but that's irrelevant. The market deemed Guerrier, Crain and Fuentes worthy of multiple years, and the Twins were never going to ink any of them to one-year deals. The Twins let other teams take the gamble of paying them into their mid 30s (in Fuentes' case, beyond). 

Letting the four free agents go was probably wise and certainly justifiable. Keeping Capps is a bit more dicey, but it's hardly the insanity Nelson calls it.

Hitting homers in Target Field

Last week's print column pondered the playing characteristics of Target Field and warned against jumping to conclusions.

A fresh case in point: The Associated Press on Saturday moved an article on Yankee Stadium, which has already had more homerless games this year than all of last season.

Or you can take the Dick Bremer analysis. Bremer on Saturday opined that Target Field looks like a much better home run park in the day than at night.

Let's see ... The Twins have played one official night game at home so far. There's been a lot of talk about the gaps playing long at Target Field — both Mike Cameron and David Ortiz hit balls that they thought "should" have gone out —and those came in day games.

Yeah, Rick Ankiel (above) hit two homers Saturday. So far, I've noticed one cheap-looking homer at the new park — a Michael Cuddyer flyball down the left field line that just got over the fence. I've seen a lot more drives to the power alleys that died before reaching the wall.

But Bremer sees a four-homer day game and decides the park is homer-friendly in the daytime.

Maybe it will work out that way over time. We don't really know yet.

And Bremer shouldn't pretend that we do. He certainly ought to know that almost all that we've seen of Target Field — including the Cameron and Ortiz drives that died—has come in the daytime.

Poll results and Alex Burnett

I should have mentioned in the previous post that the main reason Alex Burnett (above) was brought up rather than Anthony Slama, Ron Mahay or Kyle Waldrop is that Burnett is on the 40-man roster. The others are not.

Baseball America ranks Burnett as a better prospect than Slama anyway.

Burnett is a "smallish right-hander" (6 feet, 190 pounds) who came on last season with a move to the bullpen. Working in short stints, his velocity is around 93 mph with occasional gusts to 95. He also throws a straight change to lefties, who really struggled with him last season. (LH's hit just .150 off him in two levels, High A and Double A.)

Key sentence in BA's write-up: "Burnett will become a big league bullpen factor when he improves his breaking ball command."

It wouldn't hurt if he became a factor starting Monday night.

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Last week's poll was about how many games Michael Cuddyer will play in center field.

The consensus appears to be: Not many. Fifteen (38 percent) said less than five games; 13 (33 percent) said five to 14; seven (17 percent) said 15 to 24; and four (10 percent) said at least 25.

Twenty-five games would be almost one a week, and that's not going to happen. If Denard Span needs that much time off, the Twins will add a legitimate center fielder to their bench. I'm inclined, personally, to the less-than-five category.

New poll is up.

Swapping out generic middle men

The Twins signed Clay Condrey, a 34-year-old right-handed middle relief pitcher to whom the Phillies declined to offer a contract, and bid farewell to Bobby Keppel, who will take a bigger offer to pitch in Japan.

There's not much to see here. Barring injuries to the established bullpen crew, it was difficult to see a place for Keppel on the major league roster. It isn't easy to see one for Condrey either.

I ran through this exercise in December, but let's repeat: Here's a logical set of bullpen roles.

Closer: Joe Nathan
LH setup/LOOGY: Jose Mijares
No 1. 8th inning: Matt Guerrier
RH setup No. 2: Jon Rauch
RH setup No. 3: Jesse Crain
LOOGY no. 2: Vacant
Long man: Condrey, or somebody who lost out on the fifth starter job (Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins...)

Missing for that list is Pat Neshek. Nobody knows exactly what to expect from him, or if he's going to be ready for the majors at the start of the season.

Condrey had a nice season for the Phillies last year (6-2, 3.00 ERA in 45 appearances), but he's not really that good. It's a minor move.

Twins dump Breslow, keep Ayala

The Twins this afternoon (Wednesday) lost Craig Breslow on waivers to the Oakland Athletics.

This opened up roster space for Anthony Swarzak, who will take Glen Perkins' place in the rotation.

I've been a Breslow backer for a while -- it has been argued here that the Twins lost out on the division title last season because Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to entrust key innings to Breslow. I have to admit that he hasn't pitched particularly well this season, but Luis Ayala hasn't pitched well since 2007, and he's still cluttering the roster.

Swarzak, at least in theory, isn't going to be up for long; Perkins is supposedly expected to return as soon as his 15 days on the DL are up. But if Swarzak fares well, and Ayala doesn't give Gardy some reason to use him in late innings, who knows? This bullpen is clearly in need of a makeover. I wouldn't have started with Breslow, but it had to start somewhere.

One added point: I hope this doesn't lead to Gardenhire trying to use Jose Mijares both as a LOOGY and the top 8th inning choice. That's the kind of useage pattern that got Pat Neshek hurt.