An overthought from the weekend

The Twins have a 10-game lead on Memorial Day.

I was optimistic about this team when the season opened, but I didn't expect this.

---

This is probably overthinking the weekend, but I keep trying to find significance in an insignificant end-of-game move Saturday.

Rocco Baldelli started Jorge Polanco at designated hitter that game, with Miguel Sano at third and Ehire Adrianza at short. Late in the game, Baldelli pulled Sano for Luis Arraez, but inserted the rookie at shortstop and shifted Adrianza to third.

Adrianza's base position is shortstop. Arraez's is second base, but he had split this season in the minors almost evenly between second and third. He has very little time at shortstop. It seems to me more likely that if those two are on the left side of the infield that Arraez would be at third and Adrianza at short.

So why flip them? My overthought: If and when this team gets back to full health, Baldelli will have an overcrowded roster. At some point Nelson Cruz (wrist) and Mitch Garver (ankle) will come off the injured list, and two players on the active roster will have to come off. And unless somebody else goes on the injured list, those moves are difficult to identify.

Arraez, who has now played more in the majors than he has in Triple A, is a likely first demotion, not because he's struggled in the majors but because he's optionable and wasn't really expected to be knocking on the door at this point anyway. A second ...

Willians Astudillo is optionable, but I think the Twins want his unique skill set in the majors. Dropping to 12 pitchers is certainly a possibility -- the back end of the 'pen has been underused for more than a week -- but every time they do that they rapidly decide they need the 13th.

Which takes me to Adrianza. He's out of options, so the Twins would have to put him on waivers. If he clears, they presumably can outright him to Triple A and still have him available if they need another infielder in the majors. But what if somebody claims him? What do the Twins have as org depth at shortstop?

They have not played Marwin Gonzalez in the middle infield yet, in large part because Adrianza has been on the roster all season. DFA Adrianza, and Gonzalez would presumably become the No. 2 shortstop and second baseman behind Polanco and Jonathan Schoop. That works unless and until somebody goes on the injured list.

Behind them: Nick Gordon is on the 40-man roster and at Rochester, but he's only played a dozen games because of injury. Ronald Torreyes, who had a few good seasons on the Yankees bench and was signed as a minor-league free agent, is hitting under .150 at Rochester.

So they take a look at Arraez at short. They're not going to see that he can definitely handle the position in one or two innings, but it plants the seed in his mind that this team might need him to play shortstop down the road.

Arraez at short isn't ideal, and it may never be necessary. But that possibility, however thin, might be behind that slightly odd Saturday move.

Contemplating Eduardo Escobar

Eduardo Escobar has taken over the shortstop job.

By the raw percentages, the Twins' best hitter this year has been Eduardo Escobar, hitting .324 even after taking a 0-fer Thursday afternoon.

It hasn't been all singles, either; he's cracked 15 doubles, which is just shy of making the top 10 in MLB — not bad for a guy whose at-bats for the first month were severely limited.

It could be said that the difference in Thursday's game was that when the Rangers loaded the bases, Shin-Shoo Choo blooped a three-run double; when the Twins loaded them, Escobar hit a line drive at the first baseman for a double play.

He's had just 117 plate appearances, so all the usual caveats about small sample sizes apply. That said, he did hammer International League pitching when he was playing regularly there last season (.308/.380/.500), and he did hit for some respectable batting averages (but without much power) in lower levels of the White Sox chain before getting a big league bench job at age 23.

So far this year, the switch-hitting Escobar has been markedly better as a left-handed hitter (OPS .949 left-handed entering Thursday's play, .709 as a right-handed batter; figures from Baseball Reference). But over his career — which is still less than a full season of plate appearances — he's been better right-handed.

He's an intriguing figure in terms of evaluating his future. The White Sox hurried him into a major league utility infielder job, and he was pigeonholed early into that role. Perhaps he would have been a more highly regarded prospect had the Sox given him time to play in the minors. Instead, he got little playing time in his age 23 and 24 seasons (at least until the Twins sent him to Triple A at the All-Star break last year).

He's getting his chance now, though. And doing something with it. He might not be as good a hitter over a long haul as he's been so far, but he doesn't have to be a .330 hitter to keep the job.

At the keystone

Brian Dozier was a shortstop last year, a second baseman
this time around.

Around the time my Monday print column connecting the competence of the Twins infield defense to that of their pitching staff was being readied for publication, Phil Mackey was making much the same points in this piece on the merits of Eduardo Escobar as an infield regular.

Of particular note in Mackey's reporting is Ron Gardenhire saying that while Escobar can handle shortstop and third base, he thinks second base is Escobar's best position.

OK, let's sort through this. Jamey Carroll is going to be on the roster, preferably as a frequently-used utility man. He turned 39 last month, and his offense last season was better when he got more time off. If Carroll winds up the regular at any infield position, it means Plan A failed.

Pedro Florimon entered camp as the favorite for shortstop. He can pick it, but he can't hit it. The same can be said of Escobar. Good field, no hit.

Then there's Brian Dozier. He flopped as a rookie at short last year and has been used strictly at second base this spring. Tom Kelly last week lauded his improvement. Dozier played all nine innings in Monday's exhibition against the St. Louis Cardinals and was involved in turning five double plays, which is not a bad sign at all.

Escobar may well be the superior defensive second baseman, but it's going to be difficult to justify having Florimon and him both in the lineup on a regular basis. Of the three non-Carroll candidates, Dozier is the only one with a respectable minor-league resume as a hitter.

Of course, that track record didn't translate to the majors last year.  If Dozier is to emerge from Florida with the job over Escobar and Carroll, he's got to hit as well as field. My guess is that he's going to get the chance.

Sorting out the infielders

Pedro Florimon is
the front-runner for
the shortstop job.

The Twins position players, with one exception (Delbinson Romero), are all in camp now, and full-team workouts began Saturday.

And the first, if expected, steps were taken to sort out the infield.

Ron Gardenhire said Pedro Florimon will work strictly at shortstop, and Brian Dozier -- who started at short in half the Twins' games last season and didn't play an inning for Minnesota at another position -- will be at second base. Jamey Carroll and Eduardo Escobar will work at both spots and at third base, although Trevor Plouffe will be the starter at third.

As I say, expected. Florimon and Dozier are the two guys the Twins want to see come out of camp with the shortstop and second base jobs. What can get in the way: Neither hit much in the majors last season, although Dozier has hit in the minors; and Dozier hasn't played a lot at second base.

I saw a tweeted report that Tom Kelly was complementary about Dozier's footwork in early infield drills. Kelly's not noted for empty praise, so that's a good sign. A small sign, but a good one.

Benchmarks for 2013: Middle infield

Brian Dozier had the most playing time at shortstop
last season, but didn't shine in the field or at the plate.

The Twins have truly lacked stability in the middle infield for much of Ron Gardenhire's tenure. Since the breakup of the League of Nations infield he inherited from Tom Kelly (Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas, Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman) after the 2004 season, the Twins have had just two three 100-start seasons in the middle infield: Luis Castillo in 2006 at second base, Jason Bartlett in 2007 at shortstop, Orlando Hudson in 2010 at second base.

Eight seasons of patchwork in the middle infield. 2013 is likely to be more of the same.

There are four primary contenders for playing time at second base and shortstop, with three other middle infielders scheduled to be in camp this spring. Taking the big four alphabetically:

Jamey Carroll played all over
the infield in 2012.

Jamey Carroll, entering the second and final year of his Twins contract, is the one guy assured of a roster spot. The veteran, who turns 39 next month, hit .268/.343/.317 last season as he split time at second base (64 starts), shortstop (36 starts) and third base (30 starts).

It's worth noting that Carroll's final numbers were boosted by a big September (.388 for the month) that was also the month in which he had the least playing time. Only once did Carroll play four days in a row in the final month.

Pluses for Carroll: Versatile, reliable, and the one guy in the running with any track record of competency at the plate. Minuses: An almost complete lack of power (while the on-base percentage is quite acceptable for a middle infielder, the slugging percentage is not), and age takes its toll on everybody.

He might wind up with the biggest share of the second base job, but I think the Twins would rather use him in a heavy-use reserve role.

Brian Dozier was handed the shortstop job in midseason and didn't do much with it. As a hitter, he showed a little more power than Carroll and a lot less ability to avoid making outs. In the field, he was ... well, he was an improvement over the mess that was the 2011 shortstop crew, but he was the weakest regular shortstop in the division.

Dozier illustrates what I see as one of Gardenhire's chronic weaknesses as manager: Although he's a former middle infielder himself, Gardenhire's track record at evaluating middle infielders, and particularly shortstops, appears to be wanting. Gardy essentially had to be forced to play Bartlett in 2006. Last year, it appeared that Gardy wanted Dozier from the start, and Terry Ryan and Co. were dubious. In May, Gardenhire got Dozier, and played him consistently until Ryan took him away in mid August. All summer, Gardy talked up Dozier, and all summer, Ryan provided a background murmur of discontent with the shortstop play.

The plan for 2013 appears to be trying Dozier at second base. He has hit some in the minors, and there is precedence for the theory that shifting a player to a less-demanding defensive position can help him at the plate.

Pluses for Dozier: The most potential in this group to hit. Minuses: Very little experience at second base, and he's probably already blown his shot at the shortstop job.

He's probably the front-runner for second base, but if he has trouble turning the double play, or if his hitting is still the mess it was at the end of 2012, it's back to Rochester.

Eduardo Escobar, acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade, is a largely unknown quantity. He spent much of 2012 as a utility infielder with the Sox and had just 14 at-bats with the Twins. Right-handed hitter, very popular in the Chicago clubhouse, just turned 24 this week (he's the youngest of this field of four serious contenders).  By process of elimination, if nothing else, he should get a good look this spring.

Pluses for Escobar: Reputed to have good defensive tools. Minuses: His minor-league record doesn't indicate that he'll hit.

He could win the shortstop job; he might be the utility guy if Carroll winds up with the bulk of the second base job; he might go to Rochester to get some playing time.

Pedro Florimon:
A .579 OPS isn't going
to cut it in the bigs,
no matter how good
the defense.

Pedro Florimon, picked up on waivers from Baltimore last winter and then outrighted to Double A, ended 2012 as the Minnesota shortstop. Turned 26 last month, a switch-hitter who struck out as often with the Twins as he got a hit (30 of each).

He's a rangier shortstop than Dozier, but somewhat error-prone -- and he is, emphatically, no hitter.

Pluses for Florimon: He can help the pitching staff in the field, and this staff (especially the rotation) needs the help. Minuses: He's got to hit better than .219/.272/.307. His minor league record as a hitter is weaker than Escobar's.

He's probably the front runner for the shortstop job, but I doubt he can hold it.

The other guys: Daniel Santana is on the 40-man roster, but he hasn't played above High-A yet. He's ticketed for Double A New Britain. Non-roster invitees James Beresford and Ray Olmedo are essentially roster filler for Rochester and/or New Britain.

The endgame

Ideally, Dozier takes control of the second base job and hits well enough to justify a slot at the top of the order, and one of Florimon or Escobar emerges as a reliable defense-first shortstop.

It's possible that there are no right answers here for Gardenhire -- that neither Florimon nor Escobar can hit well enough to keep their gloves in the lineup, that Dozier really isn't destined to be a major league regular. But the Twins need to find out. Carroll may be the safest choice in the middle infield, but he's no long-term solution.

In this regard, Gardenhire's lack of job security may get in the way of the longer term good of the organization.

Twins killings: Turning the double play

Jamey Carroll, playing second base on Tuesday,
turns a first inning double play.

The Twins turned double plays in the first and second innings Tuesday night — and none after that, breaking a four-game streak with at least three double plays.

Those two DPs gave the Twins 70 double plays on the season — by far the most in baseball. (Toronto has the next highest total at 58, a dozen behind Minnesota.)

This is a mixed blessing — a multitude of double plays is characteristic of a team that allows too many baserunners, and this is certainly the case with the Twins.

But it also has links to some strengths. The Twins' opponents entered Tuesday hitting ground balls in 35 percent of their plate appearances —a high figure, just slightly behind Cleveland for highest in the AL. (This is fueled in large part by Scott Diamond; according to Baseball Reference, Diamond in his five starts has gotten 65 ground balls and 38 air balls.)

And there can be no serious question that getting Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe out of the middle of the infield (and Jamey Carroll and Brian Dozier into the middle infield) has helped tremendously.

Plouffe was a disaster at shortstop last year,  but he has been pretty decent in his first dozen or so games at third base — considerably better than I expected when he started playing there with Danny Valencia's demotion. He has been charged with two errors at third and has had a hand in seven double plays. It's a rare third baseman who has even as many DPs as errors — to have that kind of ratio is almost unheard of.

Valencia, in more than twice the playing time at third, had two errors and eight double plays — last year, 18 and 20. The contrast in around-the-horn double plays from 2011 to 2012 suggests that the improvement may have less to do with the third baseman than with the second baseman.

Here comes Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier is to
take over as the
regular shortstop
today.

Today Brian Dozier (and Scott Diamond) report to the Twins.

Diamond replaces fellow rookie Liam Hendriks as the fifth starter. I touched briefly on that in the Monday print column, and I'm sure I'll have more to say about it in the next day or so.

Today, let's talk Dozier, who Ron Gardenhire said Sunday on his radio show will be his everyday shortstop now. Dozier turns 25 next week, he's a right-handed hitter, he was an eighth-round pick as a college senior (most collegians sign as juniors), and he shot up the ladder pretty quickly, never spending a full season at any minor league level.

Unlike Diamond (or Hendriks), Dozier wasn't a September call-up last year; the Twins didn't have to put him on the 40-man roster last winter, so they saved the roster spot. So tonight figures to be Dozier's major-league debut.

The word out of spring training was that Dozier was the best defensive shortstop in camp, and Ron Gardenhire appeared to favor making him the shortstop then. The Twins stuck with the offseason plan of Jamey Carroll at short (and Alexi Casilla at second) because:

• Dozier had about a half-season of Double A ball on his resume and no time in Triple A;
• The two veterans were expected to be better hitters than Dozier;
• By delaying Dozier's debut, the Twins depressed his service time and perhaps put off his arbitration eligibility.

Jamey Carroll turns a double play Saturday
against the Mariners.

In fairness to Terry Ryan, that last was probably a minor point. This call-up is early enough that, assuming Dozier sticks, he'll probably be a "Super Two" and arbitration eligible after 2014. (And if all goes well, last year's first-round pick, Levi Michael, might be knocking at the major-league door by then.)

Carroll has been a competent defensive shortstop for the first month or so of the season. And durable, too; he's played all but one inning in the field, which would be fairly impressive for a shortstop a decade younger (Carroll is 38).

But Carroll hasn't hit -- slash line .206/.306/.237. He has drawn 13 walks, second on the team to Joe Mauer, but .306 isn't a good on-base percentage for anybody, much less a top-of-the-order guy, and he's not a power threat.

Dozier isn't going to fix the offense. But one can reasonably expect him to do better than a .543 OPS (Carroll) or .597 (Casilla), whichever comes out of the lineup to make room for the rookie. Dozier may be only a marginal upgrade in the field and at the plate, but even a marginal improvement helps.

Adding Dozier gives the Twins a legitimate middle infielder on the bench, which may have the indirect effect of helping Trevor Plouffe. Remember, part of the idea of moving Plouffe to the outfield was to replicate what happened to Michael Cuddyer when he made the move from infield to outfield. With the defensive burden lifted, Cuddyer became a better hitter. Plouffe hasn't had that improvement happen yet; he hasn't really had that opportunity. He's been pressed into service as the backup infielder as well as a part-time outfielder; instead of decreasing his defensive responsibilities, the Twins increased them.

Waiving Luke Hughes

Luke Hughes lost
his roster spot in
part because
Francisco Liriano
can't throw strikes.

The Twins had to make a roster move Wednesday to make room for Jason Marquis, that night's starting pitcher.

That move probably would have involved another pitcher, but ...

• Francisco Liriano's awful start on Tuesday strained the bullpen;
• Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn are injured enough to be out of action but not enough, in the eyes of management, to justify putting either on the disabled list.

So the ax fell on a position player, and the selected target was Luke Hughes, who was designated for assignment. The Twins have 10 days in which to dispose of his contract -- trade him to another team, release him, outright him to Rochester.

Hughes is a marginal talent, a tweener -- he hits well enough to play second base, but isn't good enough defensively; he fields well enough for a corner infield spot, but doesn't provide enough offense.

What is most striking about cutting him (to go with 13 pitchers) is that he was the closest thing to a competent middle infielder on the bench. With the current 25-man roster, Trevor Plouffe figures to be the backup at both shortstop and second base, and that simply does not work.

I have to figure that this is temporary. At some point soon the Twins will return to a 12-man pitching staff, and a middle infielder who isn't a defensive embarrassment will join the roster.

Brian Dozier? I'm inclined to doubt that the decision makers will pull the plug on the Jamie Carroll-Alexi Casilla duo before April ends -- the Twins generally let Plan A ride until mid-May before calling it a failure -- and Dozier isn't likely to be called up to sit.

On the other hand, maybe the decision makers are getting tired of double plays not turned.

The old shortstops

Jamey Carroll has
never been a regular
shortstop in the
major leagues.

A couple of notes related to the Monday print column on the Twins shortstop situation:

A Yankees-oriented blog, Was Watching, recently posted this list of shortstops who played 100-plus games at age 38 or more. I'm linking to it here so that I have ready access to it.

It's relevant to the Yankees because of Derek Jeter. It's even more relevant to the Twins because of Jamey Carroll, who is, as of now, slated to be Minnesota's regular shortstop.

The list is Hall-of-Famers or nearly so. There are a couple of nonentities from the 1880s and the first years of the American League, but everybody else was a true standout. Omar Vizquel had a corner on the market in Gold Gloves for a decade, Maury Wills won an MVP, Larry Bowa set fielding records ... and those are the weakest careers of the bunch.

Jeter is one of the greatest shortstops ever. He fits that crowd. Carroll does not. That, in a nutshell, is why I am skeptical of the plan to install him at short.

---
Different book, same chapter, with a plot twist:

In the spring of 2005, Jason Bartlett was 25 and the putative heir to the shortstop position, freshly vacated by Cristian Guzman. Terry Ryan signed veteran utility infielder Juan Castro as a fallback option.

Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to play Bartlett; the manager found Bartlett too deferential. And, in truth, Bartlett didn't hit in 2005. Bartlett outplayed Castro in spring training 2006, but opened the season in the minors. It wasn't until Ryan dumped Castro that Bartlett got to play regularly.

Gardenhire is voicing no such reservations about Brian Dozier. But Ryan has provided his manager with a veteran utility infielder to play ahead of a relatively old rookie (Dozier turns 25 in May). He even signed Carroll as a free agent from the Dodgers, just as he did Castro.

This time around, it appears to be the general manager who is reluctant to turn the job over to the rookie.

Interpreting Monday's cuts

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
is now Gene Glynn's
problem in Rochester.

As expected, the Twins had their second round of cuts Monday, sending out 12 more players to their minor-league complex.

We'll start with the headline: Tsuyoshi Nishioka optioned to Rochester.

My take: There are two primary possibilities here:

• Brian Dozier winds up the starting shortstop, with either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla shifting to the utility role;
• The Twins pick up their utility guy on waivers late in camp.

There are other possibilities, such as Pedro Florimon, but they seem less likely than those two. My bet is on the waiver-wire move. Dozier is going to start wherever he is; I can't see the Twins carrying him as a one- or two-games-a-week guy.

I saw a quick piece of speculation about Luke Hughes as the sole utility infielder, or Trevor Plouffe returning to the infield. But nobody's ever accused Hughes of being a shortstop, and Plouffe has been emphatically cleared of those charges.

Carlos Gutierrez optioned out. He was one of the bullpen candidates who most intrigued me coming into camp, but he's not in the running now.

He and Kyle Waldrop are redundant: Right-handers, former first-round picks, who rely on groundballs and get few strikeouts. Gutierrez has superior velocity; Waldrop has better control. Waldrop's still around.

Luis Perdomo has
55 strikeouts in
61 major league
innings, all with
San Diego.

More hard throwers cut. I speculated Monday morning that all four of the relievers who finished Sunday's one-hitter could be cut; in the actual event, only one was. That was Luis Perdomo, who also happened to be the one guy who allowed a hit.

Perdomo was also one of the highest-velocity arms, if not the highest, in camp. Also leaving: power arms Jason Bulger and Esmerling Vasquez. (And some softer throwers as well, in P.J. Walters and Daryl Thompson).

Scott Baker insurance: Liam Hendriks is still in camp, implying that if Baker's balky elbow keeps him out to start the season the Aussie might get the rotation slot. Also still around are the use-or-lose guys who might factor in the 2013 rotation (Terry Doyle, Matt Maloney, Anthony Swarzak). Of those latter three, only Doyle has been pitching as a starter in camp; it will be interesting to see if Maloney in particular starts getting stretched out.

If not Nishi, who? Here's an idea

My Monday print column was on what I called "the Nishioka dilemma" -- that Tsuyoshi Nishioka appears overwhelmed even by the utility infielder job, yet the Twins not only have a significant investment in him but few palatable alternatives.

Then, in listening to the radio broadcast of the Twins exhibition game with Tampa Bay, it dawned on me that the Twins favorable waiver wire position can be a factor.

Tampa Bay has a number of players for its middle infield, and Joe Maddon mixes and matches to take advantage of their strengths and cover their failings. The bulk of the playing time in 2011 went to four men: Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Elliot Johnson. All four remain with the Rays, but they also imported Jeff Keppinger.

It's an intriguing mix. Zobrist is a switch-hitter with power and a multitude of positions; a shortstop in the minors, he has played just about everywhere other than short for Maddon. Rodriguez, who also plays second and third, is stretched at short, but is a better hitter than either Brignac or Johnson, who are both, at least by the defensive metrics I've seen, superb shortstops. Keppinger is somewhat in the Rodriguez mode -- plays all infield spots, hits lefties OK.

Johnson is the guy I'm suddenly looking at. He's 28, a switch-hitter, and out of options. While he didn't hit much last year in the majors, he had an absurdly good season with the bat in Triple A in 2010 -- I say absurd because there's little in his nine-year professional record to suggest he could have that good a season.

I can see the Rays putting him on waivers late in spring training. And if they do, I hope the Twins claim him. Nobody can beat the Twins to him on a waiver offer. They have American League priority.

Johnson's not a great player -- but he's better than the Twins current set of alternatives.

Addendum: A point I should have made when I first posted this: Johnson is merely a specific name. That the Twins have the first waiver claim in the American League during spring training gives them dibs on anybody an AL team tries to outright to the minors.

Reviewing the middle infield prospects

Brian Dozier has
a half-season of Double
A ball on his resume.

Last February I had a post comparing the different views of the Twins middle infield prospects of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook and John Sickels' Baseball Prospect Book.

This year Sickels reviews 47 Twins, six to eight of them middle infielders (one, Jairo Perez, is listed as 3B-2B, and another, Yangervis Solarte, as 2B-OF); he does not list Miguel Sano or Eddie Rosario as middle infielders. Baseball America's 30 Twins prospects include six middle infielders, including Sano and Rosario.

Sano is easily the consensus choice as the Twins top prospect, but nobody expects him to play shortstop in the majors. The big (listed as more than 230 pounds) 18-year-old (turns 19 in May) apparently still sees himself as a shortstop, however, and he played there some last year.

Rosario played outfield last season; the Twins are converting him to second base. He is also young (turned 20 last September) and a highly regarded prospect as an outfielder. If he takes to the infield well, he'll be an even more valuable piece.

Beyond those two:

Levi Michael, last June's No. 1 draft pick, is rated by BA as the Twins No. 6 prospect. Sickels gives him a B- grade. Expect him (and Sano and Rosario) to open 2012 at low A Beloit, with Michael playing short.

Brian Dozier is BA's No. 10 Twins prospect and another B- from Sickels. He finished 2011 at Double A, is likely to open 2012 at Triple A Rochester. He may well be starting in Minnesota at some point this season.

Niko Goodrum, No. 19 on BA's Twins list, gets a C+ from Sickels. Very raw and athletic shortstop, a lean greyhound who came on strong last summer in Elizabethton as a teammate of Sano and Rosario. He may be held back this year for Michael, but I rather expect Michael to push his way up a level by mid-season and open a spot at Beloit for Goodrum.  Goodrum hit .341 in August, the last month of the Appy League season. While he's slender now, his father is big, and there's some thought that the younger Goodrum will, like Sano, outgrow shortstop. A second-round pick out of high school in 2010.

Jorge Polanco is No. 28 on the BA list, unlisted by Sickels. Didn't hit in the Gulf Coast League. At 5-11, 165 pounds, he is apparently not strong enough for pro ball; at age 18, there's time for him to grow. More time in a rookie league for him.


Jairo Perez (unranked by BA, C + from Sickels) hammered the ball at Beloit (.337/.413/.580), but he was old for the level (23), coming off Tommy John surgery and is not a good defensive player. If he's to be a major leaguer, he needs to move up the ladder with some haste. Likely to open at High A Fort Myers.

Pedro Florimon Jr.
reached the majros
briefly last year
with Baltimore.

Pedro Florimon Jr. was unranked by BA and a C prospect for Sickles. Twins picked him up from Baltimore more to help Rochester than for the big team. Good range, erratic, not much of a hitter.

Tyler Grimes (unranked BA, C from Sickles) was, like Michael, drafted out of college last summer. Unlike Michael, he signed quickly and played 42 games at Beloit, where he struck out a lot. A shortstop now, may not stick there. Not sure he should move up to to High A, and I can't see the Twins letting him block Michael or Rosario at Beloit. He might be a utility guy next year at Beloit.

Daniel Santana (unranked BA, C from Sickles) spent 2011 at Beloit. Good athlete, makeup and effort questioned. At 21, he's got time to outgrow his problems, but the logjam of middle infield talent at the A Ball level may work against him.

Yangervis Solante (unranked BA, C from Sickles) is a multi-position guy who hits for average and is likely to move up to Triple A. (As noted by a commenter, Solante signed with Texas as a minor league free agent. I missed that transaction; so did Sickles.)

Notable by their absences from these lists are the guys ticketed for Double A, most notably James Beresford and Estarlin de los Santos.

The Twins have a long history of failing to grow their own middle infielders. The stockpile of them in the A ball level -- Rosario, Michael, Goodrum, Santana, Grimes -- represent the best shot in some time to reverse that trend. But it will not happen in 2012, or even 2013; 2014 figures to be the earliest any of these guys reaches Target Field.

Dumatrait, Carroll and a rough draft of the middle infield

Phil Dumatrait: May
he be roster filler in
Rochester, not in
Minnesota.

The Twins last month dropped Phil Dumatrait from their 40-man roster, making him a minor-league free agent. It would appear that the lefty found nobody willing to sign him to a major league deal, so he re-upped Wednesday with the Twins on a minor league deal.

Joe Christensen says Dumatrait enjoyed his time in Minnesota. By that I assume he means Dumatrait enjoyed spending most of the season in the majors. The Twins will be best served, to be blunt about it, if the pitching staff does well enough and stays healthy enough that Dumatrait spends all of 2012 in Rochester.

---

The Jamey Carroll signing became official Wednesday. We haven't reached Thanksgiving yet, and the Twins have been shuffling their middle infield:

• Matt Tolbert was cut loose;
• Carroll was signed;
• Trevor Plouffe is to be an outfielder, and not a middle infield factor.

Brian Dozier, who had a very good 2011 split between High A (Fort Myers) and Double A (New Britain) followed it up with a good stint in the Arizona Fall League, but the Twins aren't likely to push him to the majors with just a half-season above A ball.

Brian Dozier: Don't
expect to see him at
the start of 2012.

Which means that as things stand, the middle infield figures to be made up of Carroll, Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The Twins are hoping that Nishioka's struggles in 2011 was based on his leg injuries and that a sound Nishi will be a better Nishi.

But they're not pinning their hopes on him, as they did in 2011. The three of them -- Carroll, Casilla and Nishioka -- figure to compete during spring training for the two regular jobs, with Luke Hughes and Dozier the dark horses.

I'm not high on any of them as a shortstop right now. Nishioka can be better in 2012 than he was in 2011 and still be south of major-league quality; Casilla has never produced consistently; and Carroll is a 38-year-old utility man.

I figure by midseason there will be an obvious opening for Dozier, and he'll have a bit more experience under his belt.

Contemplating Jamey Carroll

Thirty-eight.

That's the single most important number connected to Jamey Carroll, the well-traveled infielder who is reported to have agreed to a two-year contract with the Twins for up to $7 million. The signing is not yet official, but the Twins aren't denying it.

Carroll turns 38 in February, and his age is a huge red flag if the Twins indeed intend to make him their regular shortstop.

Go through baseball history, and you'll find that only the very best shortstops remain at the position into their late 30s -- men like Honus Wagner, Luis Aparicio, Omar Vizquel. Everybody loses a bit of range as they age. If the player isn't the kind who wins Gold Gloves automatically in his 20s, he won't have enough range for shortstop in his late 30s. He changes position (if he has enough bat to be useful at third base or second base) or finds a new occupation.

Jamey Carroll ain't Luis Aparicio. He has never even been a regular shortstop in the majors. And now he's going to be one at age 38? Really?

Carroll got tagged early in his career as a utility infielder, probably because he came up in the Montreal organization at the same time as Orlando Cabrera, and the O-Cab was a good defender and had more power. (Cabrera, incidentally, is both younger than Carroll and apparently finished as a major league shortstop.) Carroll has gotten more playing time as he has aged and found different teams to play for.

Carroll wouldn't be the first man to get the utility label only to emerge later as a regular shortstop. Marco Scutaro comes quickly to mind. But Scutaro got his shot at short at age 33, five years younger than Carroll will be.

Now, Carroll almost certainly represents a step up from Trevor Plouffe or Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but that speaks more to the difficulties the 2011 Twins had in turning outs into outs. It doesn't make him a solution.

Carroll spent most of 2010-111 playing second base for the Dodgers, with some shortstop tossed in, and -- granted the Twins don't buy into the defensive metrics -- the best one can say for him there is that he was fairly average. Baseball Info Systems' plus/minus metric for the year ranks him as the worst second baseman in the majors (-12), and its runs saved stat isn't much better (-9). Both scores are considerably worse than in 2010.

Carroll doesn't make a lot of errors, and he's likely to make the routine plays -- turn outs into outs. He's far less likely to turn hits into outs.

You can win with that kind of shortstop. The Yankees and Tigers, with Derek Jeter and Jhonny Peralta, did so last season. But it helped both the Yankees and Tigers that they had high-octane starting pitchers, who got plenty of strikeouts and limited the number of balls in play. The Twins do not, and will not in 2012, have that kind of staff.

I don't see Carroll as a true fix for the position. Ten years ago, maybe. Today, I think, he's too little too late to solve much of anything with the defense.

The Eddie Rosario Experiment

Eddie Rosario is a Puerto Rican -- turned 20 in late September --who the Twins drafted in the fourth round in 2010 and had a monster 2011 season in the Appy League as an 19-year-old outfielder -- 21 homers with a slash line of .337/.397.670.

He played mainly in center for Elizabethton, and everything I've seen about him suggests that (a) he could stick in center rather than have to move to a corner and (b) the Twins have so many other toolsy outfield candidates in their minors -- Joe Benson, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Angel Morales -- that Rosario might have to shift to a corner anyway.

Plenty of outfield prospects, but a dearth of middle infielders -- which led, according to this LaVelle Neal item, to an instructional league experiment of trying Rosario at second base. LEN says it went well enough for the Twins to plan to continue the position shift in spring training.

Even if the shift takes root, it's no immediate fix for the major league middle infield. Rosario's big season came in the lower levels of the  system -- there are four rungs of the organizational ladder separating him from Target Field. He won't be in Minnesota in 2012 or 2013, and even 2015 may be pushing it for this rather conservative developmental system.

That the Twins are trying this with one of their better prospects speaks, again, to their long-running difficulty in developing middle infielders. It's something to keep an eye on -- and the likelihood that next season will see Rosario and Miguel Sano in the same infield for Beloit in the Midwest League has me contemplating a minor league road trip next summer, something I haven't done for a few years.

Coming up short

Baseball Info Systems's
advanced metrics suggest
Trevor Plouffe is the worst
defensive middle infielder
in the American League.

I have this season periodically dug into the advanced fielding metrics designed by Baseball Info Systems, and after seeing Ron Gardenhire promise "a lot of research and a lot of digging on what's going to make us better in the infield," I returned to my iPad app this morning to see what it tells me.

And the top take-away: The best way to "make us better in the infield" might be to stop playing Trevor Plouffe.

By BIS's "plus-minus" and "runs saved" measurements, no team in the American League is getting worse shortstop play than the Twins.

Derek Jeter has the worst individual totals; the Yankee captain is at -22 in plus-minus, -18 in runs saved. (I write in present tense, but the app appears to be about four games behind on the Twins, so the numbers here are not up-to-date.) But Jeter complied those numbers over 969 innings.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka is -10 and -11 in 508 innings; Plouffe is -13 and -9 in 247 innings (and, since that certainly doesn't include his performance in Kansas City this week, that understates how poorly he's played). That makes the Twins duo -23 and -20, worse than Jeter in almost 200 fewer innings.

And Plouffe isn't merely a dismal shortstop. He's even worse, on a per-inning basis, at second base (-9 and -8 in just 127 innings there.) In fact, he has the worst totals at second base in the AL, in about one-tenth the playing time of a regular second baseman. The Twins' second base play, by these metrics, have been about average if you take Plouffe's innings out.

Now the disclaimer: Even Baseball Info Systems is wary of putting a lot of weight on one year's numbers, much less one year of part-time play. But these figures jibe with what we think we see. If Trevor Plouffe isn't the worst defensive middle infielder in the AL, he's in the running.

And Nishioka isn't much better. The more we see of this defensive duo, the better Brian Dozier looks — and we haven't seen him yet.

An unlikely infield move

Today's the deadline to sign
Levi Michael and other draft picks.

As noted in the Monday print column, today is the deadline for teams to sign their 2011 draft picks, and the Twins' top three selections — Levi Michael, Travis Harrison and Hudson Boyd — are all unsigned.

I had this morning an outside-the-box idea regarding Michael, a middle infielder who played at North Carolina, an idea rooted in these facts:

• The Twins —as detailed in this post, and this one, and this one — have a hole at shortstop and are sorting again through their in-house options, even to the point of retrying players who've failed already;
• Michael, as a three-year starter at a major university, ought to be a pretty polished prospect already;
• Michael and the Twins have an apparent disagreement on how much he should get to sign;
• There are raw shortstop prospects already at the entry levels of the Twins system (James Beresford, Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco, Daniel Santana), while the primary shortstops at the higher levels (Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier) are more likely utility men in the majors rather than regular shortstops.

So the idea: Sign Michael to a major-league contract, add him to the 40-man roster, give him a couple weeks at Rochester or New Britain, then bring him to the majors in September and add him to the collection of guys getting an early tryout for the 2012 season.

That proposition should be worth a lower bonus for Michael — his options and service time clock would start ticking immediately.

I don't expect this to happen. The Twins are habitually conservative about promoting prospects, and err on the side of giving them too little challenge after signing them. But I sure won't complain if it does.

The return of Trevor Plouffe

Trevor Plouffe gets
another shot.

Trying to interpret this series of moves and rumors ...

On Wednesday, the Twins shipped Trevor Plouffe back to Rochester to make room on the roster for Alexi Casilla. (I marked the occasion with this post, in which I opined that Plouffe may have played his last inning at short for the Twins.)

Thursday was an off day. On Friday Casilla reinjured his hamstring. He failed a test on Saturday and was put back on the disabled list, and the immediate report was that the Twins were looking at other options than Plouffe or Luke Hughes, with Ron Gardenhire talking vaguely about the waiver wire. By gametime, however, the word was out: Plouffe was returning.

By Sunday the reports were that the Twins had considered bringing in Double-A infielder Brian Dozier, who I referenced in this post. Dozier isn't on the 40-man roster, and I suppose Gardenhire's talk of waivers wasn't so much about the Twins acquiring a veteran infielder as it was about opening a roster spot for Dozier.

Brian Dozier has outhit
Plouffe at each level of
the minors. He also
played each level at
a much higher age.

Instead, it's the defensively inarticulate Plouffe for a third 2011 call-up, with the claim that he'll get regular playing time on this go-around —including at shortstop.

Ugh. For immediate purposes, of course, he figures to play second base. Casilla's obviously on the shelf for at least two weeks, and that takes us pretty much through August.

Which would mean any real shortstop time would come in September. If that indeed happens, I don't expect it will go any better than it did in May, when Plouffe played every day for two weeks and was about as bad in the field as any shortstop I've seen the Twins deploy. But I could be surprised.

Certainly it's not like Tsuyoshi Nishioka has played so well that he can't be dislodged.

Plouffe could play himself into consideration for the 2012 infield in the Twins' remaining 43 games. He could also play himself out of consideration. If the Twins free up space on the 40, Dozier might get some time also.

This figures to be one of the storylines of the last six weeks of the regular season for the Twins — sorting out the infield options for 2012.

The shortstop mess

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has generally appeared
overmatched at the plate this season,  and his
slash line of .208/.259/.233 agrees.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka now leads the Twins in playing time at shortstop— 42 games, 41 starts, 355.1 innings.

Alexi Casilla has 306.2 innings, Matt Tolbert 174 and Trevor Plouffe 133. Adds to to 969 innings, with Nishioka getting about 37 percent of the playing time, Casilla 32 percent, Tolbert 18 percent and Plouffe 14. (Rounding error means those figures add up to 101 percent.)

Offensively, Casilla is the only one who approaches acceptable. (His OPS — on base plus slugging — is .691, which ranks 62nd among the 83 American League players who qualify for the batting title and is roughly the same as Derek Jeter's and Torii Hunter's. Seven of the players behind him are are also middle infielders.) Plouffe has five homers, yes, but his batting average is below .200, his slugging percentage below .400.

Defensively, they all rate below average. The most recent set of the Baseball Info Systems metrics I have  shows Nishi as -2 in plus-minus, -4 in runs saved; Casilla at -4 and -2; Tolbert at -1 and 0; and Plouffe at -5 and -4. (Those numbers are shortstop specific.)

Tolbert may not be the best defensive shortstop on the roster — clearly Ron Gardenhire doesn't believe so — but, for what it's worth, he also comes off best of six men who've played second base in those metrics. Nobody's been quite the blooming disaster at second that Plouffe was at short, but if Michael Cuddyer (-3, -3 in 115 innings) gets enough playing time there, that can change.

The Twins spent last offseason trying to find multi-year solutions to their middle infield. At this point, Nishioka has hardly established himself as part of the solution. The ever-inconsistent Casilla, maybe.

I am growing ever more curious about Brian Dozier, who opened the season at High A Fort Myers and hit .322/.423/.472 there, then moved up to Double A New Britain, where he is hitting .307/.374/.458.  He turned 24 in May, so he's not particularly young for those levels (Plouffe is 25 and has tons of time in Triple A, a level Dozier hasn't touched yet).

Dozier may not be an answer. But I'm seeing increasing evidence that the players ahead of him aren't either.

Now that it's fixed, fix it again

Alexi Casilla was handed the shortstop job this spring,
lost it, won it back, and now is to be stripped of it yet again.

When Tsuyoshi Nishioka reported to Fort Myers to rehab his fractured leg more than a month ago, the Twins chose to work him at shortstop, not second base.

That made eminent sense. Shortstop at the time was a gaping wound. Alexi Casilla had fumbled the job away; the organization has never taken Matt Tolbert very seriously as a shortstop candidate; Trevor Plouffe, who hadn't impressed anyone in years of Triple A ball, was about to get a look in the majors and demonstrate why he hadn't impressed anyone in years of Triple A ball.

Today Nishioka is with the Triple A team himself, apparently just days away from rejoining the major league team.

And shortstop is no longer a gaping wound. Casilla has been one of the keys to the team's 10-game surge. He's playing a cleaner game at short now than he did in April, and he's raised his batting average more than 90 points since his last game in April (.167 then, .263 this morning). Had he hit .260 and played this well in the field in April, I doubt the Twins would have worked Nishioka at short for six weeks.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. The Twins are about to violate that bit of wisdom by pulling Casilla out of the shortstop job, and there are good reasons to do so.

Making Nishioka the second baseman was a snap decision made early in spring training on little direct evidence. He got hurt making a double play pivot, which was something the Twins had grown concerned about as the exhibition schedule progressed and they saw signs that he was leaving himself vulnerable to aggressive slides.

If he can handle shortstop, the Twins are in better shape moving forward into 2012 and beyond.  Even if Casilla's surge proves to be just another tease, second base is easier to fill than shortstop.

The risk is if Nishioka can't handle short, if the Twins find themselves back in their April-May nightmare of unmade plays in the middle infield. Then the current sense that this team is about to make a summertime run back up the standings will prove illusionary.