Missing the benchmarks

Aaron Hicks has had
moments of brilliance
and stretches of
failure.

Another non-competitive loss Thursday for the Twins resulted in two demotions: starter Scott Diamond and center fielder Aaron Hicks were shipped out to Triple A Rochester.

Oswaldo Arcia was called up to take Hicks' spot; no move was immediately made to fill Diamond's rotation berth. The immediate speculation had Andrew Albers (like Diamond, a Canadian lefty) getting the call. I wonder if the delay might mean the Twins have a waiver-wire pickup pending; their sinking record has them in prime position to claim players.

There's no way to argue that Diamond and Hicks deserved to stay in the majors. Neither has had a good season, and both were sliding.

But their demotions signal a discouraging reality: As promising as things are in the minor leagues, the major league roster has made almost no progress toward contention. Coming into spring training, I identified eight specific areas that figured to be priorities. Of those eight, we can see success only in the bullpen roles and maybe at shortstop and second base. As for the others:

Scott Diamond's
strikeout rate, already
low, is sinking.

Starting rotation: Success here meant establishing Diamond and Vance Worley as 200-inning guys and getting Kyle Gibson settled into the major league rotation. Diamond and Worley regressed to Triple A, and Gibson's ERA is 6.21. The rise of Sam Deduno merely puts him in roughly the position Diamond was in at this point last season.

Center field: Success here meant establishing Hicks by season's end. Obviously, he's anything but established.

Leadoff hitter: Success here again meant Hicks. Ain't happening, at least not this year.

Establishing Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee: Parmelee is in Triple A (the Star Tribune's Phil Miller noted on Twitter Thursday evening that the Opening Day outfield — Josh Willingham, Hicks and Parmelee — will be playing in Rochester this weekend). Plouffe is hitting .245/.303/.404, which isn't sufficient to carry his defense at third base.

Discouraging indeed.

Benchmarks for 2013: Final thoughts

This sporadic series started more than a month ago, an attempt on my part to identify areas that the Twins in general and manager Ron Gardenhire in particular needed to fix or at least improve.

The idea was to answer this question: Wins and losses aside, what does Gardenhire need to accomplish in 2013 to remain manager of the Twins beyond the coming season?

What I wound up answering might be more along the lines of: What does Gardenhire need to accomplish to win more games in 2013?

The Twins lost 195 games the past two seasons, so it figures they would have a long list of things to improve.

I started with a list of six missions and added a seventh. The thing is, those seven are so broad as to encompass the vast majority of the roster: Much of the pitching staff needs to have names plugged into roles, the middle infield is uncertain, center field is vacant, the lineup lacks table-setters, and the clear front-runners for third base and right field have yet to establish themselves.

Gardenhire is set at catcher, first base, left field and DH. He has a closer and a top set-up man. Beyond that, he has projects, prospects and problems.

How fixable is this team? Recapping the areas:

• The putative starting rotation entering camp -- some order of Kevin Correia, Scott Diamond, Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley, plus a starter-to-be-named -- appears no better, and probably worse, than the one that came to spring training last February: Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis and Carl Pavano. The 2012 rotation imploded so quickly and so decisively that it would be difficult to avoid improvement, but even cutting the runs allowed by 100 -- which is a lot -- would still leave the Twins in the bottom half of the league. My conclusion: This is a multi-year project, and the primary figures for 2013 on the major league level are Diamond, Worley and Kyle Gibson.
• The vacancies in the middle-of-the-diamond defensive positions (shortstop, second base and center field) and at the top of the batting order are intertwined. If those issues are to be solved in 2013 with the talent on hand, Aaron Hicks and Brian Dozier have to emerge as the center fielder and second baseman, respectively. Hicks and Dozier aren't guaranteed to succeed, but the other candidates are either short-term fixes or not suited to regular use in key offensive roles.
• Trevor Plouffe and Chris Parmelee should get sustained playing time. Given the lack of realistic alternatives to either, that shouldn't be an issue.
• The bullpen roles -- well, bullpens are always works in progress. Gardenhire has a pretty solid track record with his bullpens, and of the areas of concern, this is the least concerning.

A lot of work awaits Gardenhire and his staff -- and the players they will teach and evaluate -- this spring. Time to get it started.

Benchmarks for 2013: Bullpen roles

Ron Gardenhire has managed the Twins for 11 seasons, some good, some bad. In most of those seasons, he and pitching coach Rick Anderson have had strong bullpens.

2011 was a horrid exception. The 2012 bullpen was better -- it could hardly have been worse -- but it was still short of the excellence displayed in some previous seasons.

The Twins are to have 34 pitchers reporting to camp this week. I view 17 of them -- exactly half -- as more likely to be in a starting rotation (majors or minors) than relieve, and the other 17 as primarily bullpen candidates. (And yes, I have Brian Duensing and Anthony Swarzak in the bullpen group.)

Seventeen pitchers for seven, perhaps eight, bullpen jobs, some of which have definite incumbents who aren't losing their job this spring unless they get crippled. Let's look at the roles and who exited 2012 with the jobs, all of whom are back:


Closer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jared Burton
LOOGY 1/Setup 2: Duensing
Middle relief 1: Casey Fien
Middle relief 2: Alex Burnett
LOOGY 2/MR3: Tyler Robertson
Longman: Swarzak

Three of those guys figure to be safe in their jobs: Perkins (who will be out of Twins camp for a while to pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic); Burton (who set career marks for appearances, innings and effectiveness in a season in 2011 and won a multi-year contract); and Duensing (who might claim a rotation job instead).

That's a good start on a bullpen, especially if Duensing is indeed part of it. But with Gardenhire's established preference to use his relievers frequently but in short bursts, three late-inning arms aren't enough.

Breaking it down by roles

Right-handed middle relief: Fien had an impressive half-season in the majors last year -- 35 appearances, 2.06 ERA, 32 strikeouts in 35 innings. Burnett's 3.52 ERA was acceptable, but his walk and strikeout rates were weak, and they have steadily deteriorated over his three seasons in the majors.

Fien should have a stronger grip on a job than Burnett does, but neither is as secure as Burton.

Primary competitors for their jobs: Ryan Pressly, Anthony Slama, Tim Wood.

Pressly is a Rule 5 draftee, taken from the Red Sox, a 24-year-old reformed starter whose chances of a big-league career rose sharply when shifted to the bullpen last year in Double A. He doesn't have an extensive track record of success, but he does have a good arm, And, of course, Rule 5 picks either stick on the 25-man roster or get offered back to their original team.

Slama is a non-roster invitee and an Internet favorite. He's dominated the minors at every level, but the Twins have been reluctant to give him a sustained opportunity in the majors, and he's also missed significant time the past two seasons. My guess is that Slama will again be in Rochester to open the season, but if he stays healthy he'll get a chance. The Twins clearly don't think his pitch-outside-the-strike-zone approach can work in the majors, but certainly even Triple A hitters can't make him change it.

Wood, 30, had a big season in Triple A for the Pirates last year, but like Slama, the big club never saw fit to call him up, and the Twins signed him as a minor league free agent, then added him to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft.

I'd rather see one of those three in the Twins bullpen than Burnett.

LOOGYS: Pretend for a moment that Duensing shows early in camp that he's got a pitch with which to effectively attack right-handed hitter. If so, he's a genuine starting candidate. Then what?

The Twins, for all their activity in bringing in pitchers, didn't add much in the way of left-handed bullpen candidates, which leads me to suspect that they expect Duensing to be the primary lefty specialist.

Behind him is  Robertson, who hung a few too many sliders to left-handed hitters to be secure in his position, and behind him is Caleb Thielbar, a Minnesota native who climbed from A ball to Triple A in 2012 and won a spot on the 40-man roster.

I expect the Twins to have two of the three in the 2013 bullpen. Right-hander Josh Roenicke, who I'll deal with as a threat to Swarzak's role, was better after lefties than righties in 2012 and might be seen as an alternative. The question is, does he really give lefties problems, or was 2012's success a fluke? I'll assume the latter until given good reason to believe otherwise.

Long man: Swarzak's 5.03 career ERA breaks down thusly: 4.03 in relief, 5.79 as a starter.

That's fairly well known. What's less well known is that he's been more effective in low-leverage situations than in games the Twins have a chance to win. Teams will always carry pitchers whose jobs are to work the innings that don't matter, but it makes sense to use the role to graduate to more important innings.

That hasn't worked with Swarzak, and after two seasons and an injury that has to be described as an act of self-inflicted dumbness (although not as dumb as the Red Sox prospect who shot himself in the leg), the Twins might be inclined to try someone else in the role.

Roenicke figures to be a primary contender. He had something of a breakthrough year with Colorado as a "bridge" reliever in their experiment with a four-man rotation with very low pitch counts -- a role somewhat akin to long relief -- but the Rockies took him off their 40-man roster early in the offseason anyway. I went into some detail on him here after the Twins picked him up on waivers.

If the Twins do see Roenicke as somebody who can deal with lefties late in games AND give them a couple of innings in long relief, and if they doubt they can ever entrust key innings and at-bats to Swarzak, I can see this switch coming.

This might also be a place to stick Pressly. Or one of the starting candidates who doesn't secure a rotation spot.

Benchmarks for 2013: Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee had a big September
in his 2011 callup but hit just .229
in 210 plate appearances last season
with the Twins

When I started this occasional series early this month, I listed six topics -- six areas of need for the Twins that one might reasonably use to gauge the effectiveness of Ron Gardenhire as manager in 2013.

Today I'm adding one that should have come to mind with the original post: Establishing Chris Parmelee.

Parmelee, Minnesota's first-round draft pick in 2006, will hit training camp next month as the presumptive starting right fielder. His best position is probably first base, but he's played considerable outfield as he toured the Twins minor league system.

He'll turn 25 during training camp, and it's time to find out what he can do with sustained playing time.

Right field is almost certainly not his long-term position. Oswaldo Arcia, a higher-end outfield prospect, is rocketing up the ladder; he is quite likely to lay claim to an outfield corner job by 2014. Veteran first baseman (and franchise icon) Justin Morneau is entering the last year of his contract; Parmelee could be shifted to first if the organization decides to cut ties with the 2006 MVP.

But before making any such decisions, the Twins need to determine what they have in Parmelee.

A year ago, the outside prospects gurus figured Parmelee was at best a platoon player or a "second-division" regular. But that was before he ripped Triple A at a .338/.457/.645 pace in 2012. His numbers in repeated call-ups weren't nearly so impressive, but they came with sporadic playing time.

That shouldn't be an issue in 2013. With two of last year's regular outfielders traded away, there should be plenty of at-bats available for Parmelee. And the Twins have reason to invest those at-bats in him, even if the outfield defense, with Josh Willingham in left and Parmelee in right, figures to be severely weakened as a result.

The Twins need to give Parmelee a chance to hit if they are to make the right choice on Morneau's future.

Benchmarks for 2013: Third base

This figures to be a crucial
season for Trevor Plouffe.

There's been no shortage of posts here over the past two years on Trevor Plouffe, and one thing that jumps out at me as I review them is how little I seem to understand what the Twins are doing with him.

They tried to find a shortstop in him long after I expected them to have given up on that task. They pulled the plug on him as an outfielder far sooner than I anticipated.

So I should be wary of making declarative statements about their plans with him. But here it comes anyway ...

Plouffe comes into camp next month still the third baseman-designate, but Terry Ryan has talked all winter about finding somebody to challenge that status. Ryan certainly didn't import a recognizable veteran name to do so, but he did bring in Mark Sobolewski, who has been kicking around the Toronto organization about as long as Plouffe's been in the Twins system.

Like Plouffe, Sobolewski profiles at the plate as a low-average, low-OPB hitter with some power. Unlike Plouffe, Sobolewski hasn't reached the majors, and he's never had the home-run breakout Plouffe had last summer. Also unlike Plouffe, who struggled mightily defensively at third base, Sobolewski is said to have some chops in the field.

Still, this is Plouffe's job. He hit 24 homers in his rollercoaster 2012, most of them in a torrid six-week midsummer span that bore no resemblance to his minor league record. If Plouffe is truly a significant power hitter, Sobolewski's not taking the job, and Plouffe will get a long opportunity to develop some defensive skills at the hot corner.

The endgame

It's really up to Plouffe. It's unfair to expect him to slug .750-plus, as he did during that hot stretch in 2012 -- nobody's that good. If he hits as he did for the entire season (,235/.301/.455), he'll probably need to sharpen the glovework to keep the job. Miguel Cabrera can be a butcher at third because he hits like few others. Plouffe isn't going to hit like that.

If Plouffe can't hold the job, the options on hand aren't appealing. Sobolewski (and, for that matter, Deibinson Romero, another nonroster invitee who plays third) aren't likely long-term solutions at third base. For that one has to reach down to A ball and Miguel Sano, and Sano is no lock to remain at third base either.

Benchmarks for 2013: Lineup construction

Joe Mauer should be bumped up to the second spot
in the Twins batting order.

The Twins at this point have three vacant defensive positions: Center field, second base and shortstop. They also have significant vacancies at the top of the batting order, having traded Denard Span and Ben Revere.

Figure that these six men are, barring injury, essentially set for regular play: Joe Mauer (catcher); Justin Morneau (first base), Trevor Plouffe (third base), Josh Willingham (left field), Chris Parmelee (right field) and Ryan Doumit (designated hitter). Other than Mauer, who led the American League in on-base percentage last year, those guys are better at finishing rallies than starting them. Their offense is more slugging percentage than OBP. And they're all pretty slow. There's not a prototype leadoff hitter in the pack.

And, as we've seen in the center field and middle infield segments of this series, the candidates for those open slots aren't necessarily suited to be table-setters.

Ron Gardenhire's batting orders have been frequently criticized. I don't often join in that criticism because I believe that the batting order is less important than having the right nine guys in the order. The inning with the most runs scored is the first inning, which makes sense because that's how lineups are generally built; the inning with the least is the second inning, because traditional lineups put weaker hitters at the end of the lineup. And if you average the first and second innings, it comes out even with the other innings.

But ... if two of the winners of the open positions wind up hitting first and second full-time with well-below offense, that's a problem. Each lineup slot gets about 20 more plate appearances, over the course of the season, than the next one; having a guy who should be hitting eight or ninth hitting first or second is giving up a lot of outs.

And if the winners of the three open slots are Darin Mastroianni, Brian Dozier and Pedro Florimon -- hardly unlikely -- that's three guys who probably ought to be hitting eighth and ninth. They can't all hit there.

My take:

There's good reason to hit Mauer third, but there are other hitters capable of filling that role. There's nobody close to Mauer in terms of handling a table-setter role. He's not particularly fast, but that's a secondary concern compared to his .400 on-base percentage.

So put Mauer in the two-hole. The shortstop, presumably either Florimon or Eduardo Escobar, should hit ninth. That leaves the leadoff slot and the eighth spot for the center fielder and second base. This isn't optimal, but it's better than putting two below-average hitters in the slots that get the most at-bats.

The endgame

Eventually, Aaron Hicks is supposed not only take over center field but the leadoff spot. Even if he wins the center field job this spring, however, it will probably behoove the Twins to ease him into a key offensive role. Brian Dozier theoretically might be able to fill a top-of-the-lineup slot, but he didn't hit well enough as a rookie to count on him doing so. Jamey Carroll is acceptable, but he's not a multi-year solution. Nobody else in the field of contenders for center field, shortstop or second base profiles as leadoff or No. 2 hitter.

A realistic goal for Gardenhire this year is developing one top-of-the-order guy. Two would be ideal — two of them would let Mauer, the team's best hitter, hit third — but the raw materials may not be there.

Benchmarks for 2013: Middle infield

Brian Dozier had the most playing time at shortstop
last season, but didn't shine in the field or at the plate.

The Twins have truly lacked stability in the middle infield for much of Ron Gardenhire's tenure. Since the breakup of the League of Nations infield he inherited from Tom Kelly (Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas, Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman) after the 2004 season, the Twins have had just two three 100-start seasons in the middle infield: Luis Castillo in 2006 at second base, Jason Bartlett in 2007 at shortstop, Orlando Hudson in 2010 at second base.

Eight seasons of patchwork in the middle infield. 2013 is likely to be more of the same.

There are four primary contenders for playing time at second base and shortstop, with three other middle infielders scheduled to be in camp this spring. Taking the big four alphabetically:

Jamey Carroll played all over
the infield in 2012.

Jamey Carroll, entering the second and final year of his Twins contract, is the one guy assured of a roster spot. The veteran, who turns 39 next month, hit .268/.343/.317 last season as he split time at second base (64 starts), shortstop (36 starts) and third base (30 starts).

It's worth noting that Carroll's final numbers were boosted by a big September (.388 for the month) that was also the month in which he had the least playing time. Only once did Carroll play four days in a row in the final month.

Pluses for Carroll: Versatile, reliable, and the one guy in the running with any track record of competency at the plate. Minuses: An almost complete lack of power (while the on-base percentage is quite acceptable for a middle infielder, the slugging percentage is not), and age takes its toll on everybody.

He might wind up with the biggest share of the second base job, but I think the Twins would rather use him in a heavy-use reserve role.

Brian Dozier was handed the shortstop job in midseason and didn't do much with it. As a hitter, he showed a little more power than Carroll and a lot less ability to avoid making outs. In the field, he was ... well, he was an improvement over the mess that was the 2011 shortstop crew, but he was the weakest regular shortstop in the division.

Dozier illustrates what I see as one of Gardenhire's chronic weaknesses as manager: Although he's a former middle infielder himself, Gardenhire's track record at evaluating middle infielders, and particularly shortstops, appears to be wanting. Gardy essentially had to be forced to play Bartlett in 2006. Last year, it appeared that Gardy wanted Dozier from the start, and Terry Ryan and Co. were dubious. In May, Gardenhire got Dozier, and played him consistently until Ryan took him away in mid August. All summer, Gardy talked up Dozier, and all summer, Ryan provided a background murmur of discontent with the shortstop play.

The plan for 2013 appears to be trying Dozier at second base. He has hit some in the minors, and there is precedence for the theory that shifting a player to a less-demanding defensive position can help him at the plate.

Pluses for Dozier: The most potential in this group to hit. Minuses: Very little experience at second base, and he's probably already blown his shot at the shortstop job.

He's probably the front-runner for second base, but if he has trouble turning the double play, or if his hitting is still the mess it was at the end of 2012, it's back to Rochester.

Eduardo Escobar, acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade, is a largely unknown quantity. He spent much of 2012 as a utility infielder with the Sox and had just 14 at-bats with the Twins. Right-handed hitter, very popular in the Chicago clubhouse, just turned 24 this week (he's the youngest of this field of four serious contenders).  By process of elimination, if nothing else, he should get a good look this spring.

Pluses for Escobar: Reputed to have good defensive tools. Minuses: His minor-league record doesn't indicate that he'll hit.

He could win the shortstop job; he might be the utility guy if Carroll winds up with the bulk of the second base job; he might go to Rochester to get some playing time.

Pedro Florimon:
A .579 OPS isn't going
to cut it in the bigs,
no matter how good
the defense.

Pedro Florimon, picked up on waivers from Baltimore last winter and then outrighted to Double A, ended 2012 as the Minnesota shortstop. Turned 26 last month, a switch-hitter who struck out as often with the Twins as he got a hit (30 of each).

He's a rangier shortstop than Dozier, but somewhat error-prone -- and he is, emphatically, no hitter.

Pluses for Florimon: He can help the pitching staff in the field, and this staff (especially the rotation) needs the help. Minuses: He's got to hit better than .219/.272/.307. His minor league record as a hitter is weaker than Escobar's.

He's probably the front runner for the shortstop job, but I doubt he can hold it.

The other guys: Daniel Santana is on the 40-man roster, but he hasn't played above High-A yet. He's ticketed for Double A New Britain. Non-roster invitees James Beresford and Ray Olmedo are essentially roster filler for Rochester and/or New Britain.

The endgame

Ideally, Dozier takes control of the second base job and hits well enough to justify a slot at the top of the order, and one of Florimon or Escobar emerges as a reliable defense-first shortstop.

It's possible that there are no right answers here for Gardenhire -- that neither Florimon nor Escobar can hit well enough to keep their gloves in the lineup, that Dozier really isn't destined to be a major league regular. But the Twins need to find out. Carroll may be the safest choice in the middle infield, but he's no long-term solution.

In this regard, Gardenhire's lack of job security may get in the way of the longer term good of the organization.

Benchmarks for 2013: Center field

The Twins 2013 spring training camp, as in 2008, will feature a three-way competition for the center field job.

One significant difference between the two: This time there is a clear "end game," a candidate who figures to wind up with the job. The question is more when it happens than who.

It strikes me that there are strong parallels between the three candidates this year and those of 2008:

Darin Mastroianni is Jason Pridie, or at least a right-handed version of same. Pridie fell rather quickly out of contention for the job in 2008; he was seen as more suitable for a fourth outfielder role than as a regular. So far, Pridie hasn't accomplished that either.

Joe Benson got considerable playing time in
September 2011 and was rated the second
best prospect in the Minnesota farm system
by Baseball America that winter. 

Mastroianni is very likely to be on the 2013 major league roster. There's a role for him as a bench player. But his chance of opening the season as the regular in center relies more on the unreadiness for the other two candidates than on his own skills.

Joe Benson is Carlos Gomez -- right-handed hitters who struggle to translate their obvious athletic gifts to usable baseball skills. Gomez won the spring training competition in 2008 but ultimately lost the job to Denard Span.

Gomez had the advantage of being the best shot at immediate payoff in the Johan Santana trade; Benson is in danger of falling out of relevance after a dismal 2012 in which he hit .179 in Triple A, .184 in Double A and had wrist surgery.

Aaron Hicks parallels Span: First-round draft picks with notable plate discipline. Hicks is a switch-hitter but had, at least until last season, struggled as a left-handed hitter. Hicks as a better throwing arm than Span.

Hicks has this advantage over the other two: He projects as a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter. Mastroianni is unlikely to hit well enough to be an everyday outfielder; Benson's on-base percentage is unlikely to ever be above average. I'll delve into this in more detail in a later benchmark post, but the Twins really need somebody in an up-the-middle position to hit in one of the two two lineup slots.

But Hicks hasn't played a game above Double A, and his rise through the farm system has been a painstaking one.

The endgame

Hicks is the guy the Twins want to wind up with the job -- not just playing center field, but hitting leadoff. The question facing Ron Gardenhire and Co. this spring is: How soon can he handle it?

Success in this area is, at the least, having Hicks secure in the centerfield/leadoff job by September.

Benchmarks for 2013: Starting rotation

Scott Diamond struggled in his
2011 call-up but emerged in 2012
as the Twins best starter. Now
to see if he can sustain that success.

The Twins went into spring training 2012 figuring that they had a solid, veteran starting rotation: Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Jason Marquis. Each of those five had potential issues, but still ... they each had years of major league starting experience. The Twins had $30 million invested in those five, and got nothing out of it.

It was never reasonable to expect that all five would come through. It was equally unreasonable to expect all five to fail miserably, but fail they did. The Twins wound up cycling 12 pitchers through the rotation (not counting Baker, who didn't make it out of spring training), each of whom made at least five starts and only one of whom performed well enough to be assured a 2013 slot.

None of the spring training five remain on the 40-man roster; only Blackburn remains in the organization. Of the pitchers on the 40-man roster, the only man to throw 200 innings in a major league season is Mike Pelfrey, and he's coming off Tommy John surgery.

The goal: Establish a bona fide major league rotation.

The first two pieces are Scott Diamond and Vance Worley. Diamond was the one success story in the 2012 rotation tryouts; the lefty came up in May, threw strikes, got ground balls, and compiled a 3.54 ERA in 173 innings. He also had a low strikeout rate, which is not a good sign. Worley, acquired from Philadelphia in the Ben Revere deal, has had two decent partial seasons in the Phillies rotation; last year ended early for elbow surgery. (Diamond also had his elbow scoped this offseason).

Mission: Keep them healthy and sustain their success. Diamond's not likely to get significantly better than he was in 2012, but if he can continue to be this extreme a ground ball pitcher he won't have to be. Worley's durability has yet to be established. They won't be aces, but they can be the third and fourth starters in a championship-caliber rotation.

Kyle Gibson had
ups and downs
in 2012 as he
returned late in the
season from his
Tommy John
surgery.

Beyond finding if those two can be 200-inning rotation anchors, the most important job is propect Kyle Gibson, in the process of rehabbing his reconstructed elbow. The one real benefit of signing low-ceiling veterans Kevin Correia and Pelfrey is that it eases the necessity to push Gibson into the rotation; there is also the corresponding risk that they'll unnecessarily block the higher-ceiling Gibson.

The rest of the significant action in the rotation rebuilding project figures to come in the farm system -- trade acquisitions Alex Meyer and Trevor May, 2012 draftee J.O. Berrios, whoever the Twins take with the No. 4  pick in June's draft. Diamond and Worley aren't going to head the rotation of a championship club; that will take more powerful arms, and Meyer, May and Berrios have that kind of talent.

The veterans who figure to be in the back of the 2013 rotation at least to start the year (Correia, Pelfrey, Blackburn, Rich Harden) and the survivors of the 2012 rotation shuffle (Cole De Vries, Sam Deduno, Liam Hendriks and others) aren't particularly good bets to emerge as usable pieces moving forward. If one does, that's a bonus.

The end game

The ultimate goal, of course, is to see least one of the Meyer-Berrios-May trio graduate into front-of-the-rotation Cy Young contenders and to establish Gibson, Diamond and Worley as 30-plus start, 200 inning men. That's not a realistic set of expectations for 2013. For this year, success should be defined as establishing Diamond and Worley, as getting Gibson's major league career going successfully; as keeping the prospects on track — which is out of Ron Gardenhire's hands —  and maybe find a useful back of the rotation guy in the stack of discards and rehab projects.

Benchmarks for 2013: Intro

What will it take for Ron Gardenhire to save
his job? More wins would certainly help.

The Minnesota Twins -- you might have heard this already -- have had two awful seasons the past two years, and the outlook for 2013 really isn't a whole lot better.

Indeed, expectations of the coming season are lower than they were for 2011 -- when the Twins were coming off a 94-win season -- and 2012, when they could figure that better health from their stars and a veteran rotation would bring a rebound. They got the health, but the rotation completely imploded.

Now manager Ron Gardenhire is working with an expiring contract, and there is an expectation that he's on his way out the door. The best moves of the offseason -- the trades of Denard Span and Ben Revere for Vance Worley, Alex Meyer and Trevor May -- are more for 2014 and beyond than for 2013.

To be sure, Terry Ryan has suggested that Gardenhire's fate isn't tied to a specific won-loss record in 2013. But the general manager's been vague about what has to happen in 2013 for Gardy to keep his job.

In the coming days, with some interruptions, I plan to examine six specific issues -- problems that the organization in general and Gardenhire in particular must address if the team is to return to contention.


The issues:

• Starting rotation
• Center field
• Middle infield
• Lineup construction
• Third base
• Bullpen roles

I would say this going into the series: If all these issues are fixed all season, the Twins will contend. I don't think that's likely, or even possible. But progress is certainly possible -- and necessary. Success and failure in any or all of these certainly cannot fairly be credited to or charged against Gardenhire alone, but in many of them he's going to have the final say in how they're approached. And I think that they will form a fair basis for evaluating how he's faring in his job in 2013..