What's on second

Jorge Polanco hit .308
last year in Low A ball.

The Twins have accumulated an intriguing collection of second basemen in their organization. Or, more accurately, a collection of possible second basemen.

Start at the big league level, where Brian Dozier has the job. If his 2013 production is sustained, he's capable of being the regular second baseman for a good team -- hitting at the bottom of the order. The Twins don't now have a deep enough lineup to avoid having him in the top half. But he's a good defensive second baseman, and he has shown some pop, just not a very good batting average or on-base percentage.

Then there's Eddie Rosario, currently serving a 50-game suspension for a repeat recreational drug violation. Rosario projects to be something of the opposite to Dozier: At best an average defender at the keystone, but a line-drive machine capable of filling a top-of-the-order role.

Rosario finished 2013 at Double A, but where he'll pick up after serving his suspension is uncertain. (He was excused from spring training for unspecified "personal reasons," and as far as I know has yet to report to the Twins complex in Fort Myers.) Had he not been suspended, I thought it likely that he'd have moved up to Triple A; as it is, he might have to re-serve some High A time.

High A is where Jorge Polanco is. Polanco is a 20-year-old Dominican who was signed in the same summer as Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, who got more attention. While Polanco's at a lower level of play, he might offer a combination of Dozier's defense and Rosario's batting average.

Also at Fort Myers with Polanco: his DP partner at Cedar Rapids last year, Niko Goodrum, a second-round pick in 2010; and Levi Michael, the Twins' first round pick in 2011 as a shortstop.

This is Michael's third season at High A, and he's been largely relegated to second base. The Twins probably hoped when they drafted him that by now he'd be ready to challenge for the shortstop job, if not have already pushed Pedro Florimon aside. It hasn't happened, and probably won't. Goodrum, a tall, lean bundle of fast-twitch fibers, might not be destined to be a shortstop either; there's been chatter practically since he was drafted about a possible position switch for him.

Still, the Twins have sizable financial investments in all three middle infielders. And all three are on the same team.

Every time I saw Polanco working on defense during my time wandering the minor league fields last month, it was as a shortstop. And when the Miracle opened their season Thursday night, Polanco was at short, Michael at second and Goodrum at third base.

I suspect that Polanco's arm, like Dozier's, is a bit light for shortstop. If there's a major-league shortstop in that bunch, my money's on Goodrum. But it makes sense for the Twins to take a serious look at Polanco at short. Second base is getting a bit crowded, and his bat would certainly play at shortstop.

The missing names

Ryan Eades pitched collegiately for LSU.

Baseball America's ranking of the Top 30 -- really, 32 -- Twins prospects is notable in a sense for the names not there.

Ryan Eades, for example. He was the Twins second-round draft pick last June. The third-round pick, catcher Stuart Turner, is in the book at No. 30. The fourth round pick, left-handed pitcher Stephen Gonsalves, is in the book at No. 13. But Eades isn't.

With J.T. Chargois listed as the 31st prospect in the bonus supplement and Sean Gilmartin ranked among the Atlanta Braves prospects, there are at least 17 pitching prospects Baseball America ranks above Eades, including a half dozen age 20 or younger.

When it comes to pitching prospects, the more the merrier; they have a frighteningly high attrition rate. It's just .. odd ... to see a second-rounder not listed in the Top 32. But this hardly means Eades is not a prospect after fewer than 16 professional innings.

I'm not sure the same can be said for a pair of first round picks whose careers have floundered.

Right-handed pitcher Alex Wimmers, who the Twins took with the 21st overall pick in 2010, threw just 15 innings last year. Infielder Levi Michael, another collegian (30th overall in 2011) has hit just .239 in 211 games in High A and played himself from shortstop to second base.

Neither is in the Handbook. Neither should be. It's not certain (yet) that these were busted picks, but it sure looks that way.

In case anybody thinks I should be mentioning Kyle Gibson in this context, Gibson "graduated" from prospect status last year with 51 major league innings. Gibson is in that awkward space somewhere between "prospect" and "established big leaguer." He's got a better chance than Wimmers or Michael to justify his first-round pick, but he'll never be good enough to justify (in retrospect) being drafted ahead of Mike Trout.

Minor league shortstops

Levi Michael as a collegian in 2011. He figures to
repeat high-A -- and to spend the season at shortstop.

The Twins on Wednesday made no announcement about Kevin Correia. (I think they're toying with those of us who think signing him is a mistake, raising our hopes that all those reports early in the week were erroneous.)

They did, however, announce eight minor-league free-agent signings, only three of which came with invites to major league camp. None of those three strike me as particularly likely to see any major league time.

I wanted to take note of Ray Olmedo, however. When the Twins sought to open space on their 40-man roster just before the winter meetings and lost Tommy Field on waivers, I predicted that they'd be in the market for a shortstop for Triple A Rochester. And here he is. Olmedo's 31, and if he spends time in Target Field it will be a very bad sign.

It got me thinking -- again -- about the shortstops in the farm system. I've said this before: The Twins have a lousy track record in developing shortstops, going back to the time the franchise arrived in the Twin Cities. Zoilo Versalles, the Twins original shortstop, was homegrown; the best truly homegrown shortstop since Versalles was probably Danny Thompson, and he had only one true season as a regular.

The Twins' best shortstops since Versalles -- Roy Smalley, Greg Gagne, Cristian Guzman, Jason Bartlett -- all came from some other organization.

If that streak is to be broken, the player is probably lower in the organization. Probably.

Doing a little projecting for the full-season affiliates, from the bottom up:

Cedar Rapids (low-A): Niko Goodrum and Jorge Polanco are likely to move up the ladder from Elizabethton. Goodrum, a second-round pick in 2010, repeated the Appy League, and while his hitting numbers didn't really improve, he did cut his errors almost in half. Polanco, a Domincan signed the same summer as Miguel Sano, spent most of the season at second base and hit well. Goodrum is 20; Polanco is 19. Goodrum may eventually move to the outfield; Polanco could, should that happen, return to shortstop.

Fort Myers (high-A): I rather suspect Levi Michael, the 2011 first-round pick, will repeat the Florida State League. He largely split 2012 between second base and shortstop there, but spent more time at second. Tyler Grimes, who saw the most time at short in low-A in 2012, is apparently going to try catching in 2013; I think Michael will be seeing more shortstop time as a result, especially since Eddie Rosario ought to be getting most of the second base time at this level.

It'll be a key season for Michael; the Twins are reportedly inclined to blame his rough 2012 on the injures he had as a collegian in 2011, but he needs to show something in the coming season. An infield with Rosario, Sano and Michael -- certainly last spring, that was the long-term dream for the Twins. It seems a good bit less likely this offseason than it did last.

New Britain (Double A): Danny Santana moved ahead of Michael in the pecking order with a strong season at Fort Myers and won a spot on the 40-man roster. His walk/strikeout ratio even in a good season (29 walks, 77 strikeouts) doesn't bode well for continuing his 2012 success at higher levels, but he just turned 22 last month. Now entering the upper levels of the farm system.

Rochester (Triple A): Olmedo plus organizational lifers James Beresford and Estarlin de los Santos,either of whom may repeat Double A and/or play second base. Nothing to see here in terms of potential long-term regular shortstops.

Daniel Santana vs. Levi Michael

Levi Michael was the Twins'
first-round pick in 2011 out of
North Carolina. Last winter,
Baseball America ranked him as
the Twins' sixth-best prospect;
now he's not in BA's Top 10.

The most recent issue of Baseball America lists the Top 10 prospects for the five teams in the AL Central.

For the Twins, they are: 1) Miguel Sano; 2) Byron Buxton; 3) Oswaldo Arcia; 4) Kyle Gibson; 5) Aaron Hicks; 6) J.O Berrios; 7) Eddie Rosario; 8) Max Kepler; 9) Daniel Santana; 10) Luke Bard.

BA is to post its Twins material on Nov. 20; some of it will be password protected.

The guy I want to comment on today is Santana, a switch-hitting middle infielder out of the Dominican Republic who turned 22 last week. He spent last season in High A ball, splitting time between shortstop and second base for the Fort Myers Miracle with Levi Michael, the Twins' 2011 first-round pick.

Michael is notable for his absence from the BA list. Santana outhit Michael at Fort Myers pretty substantially (.739 OPS for Santana, .650 for Michael) and, according to the magazine summary, finished the season as the Miracle's regular shortstop, relegating Michael to second base.

2012 was easily Santana's best so far, and his 29 walk/77 strikeout ratio is not encouraging.

The magazine's wrapup on Santana: Santana reminds some scouts of Pedro Florimon, the light-hitting minor league veteran who finished the year as Minnesota's regular shortstop. The Twins believe Santana has more offensive upside and will send him to Double-A in 2013.

I don't regard this as a positive. The best shortstop prospect in the system is reminiscent of Florimon? The 2011 first-rounder isn't better than that? Yikes.

Baseball Minnesota -- er, America

Miguel Sano, wearing No. 24, moves for
a ground ball during spring training drills.

A fresh issue of Baseball America showed up in my mailbox Tuesday, and it's loaded with Twins-specific stuff, starting with the cover shot of power-hitting prospect Miguel Sano (with the cover line Manchild Miguel Sano could be the best Twins prospect since Joe Mauer).

Also inside:

• A Jerry Crasnick column on the return of Terry Ryan. (This, I'm sure, is a slightly revised version of one of Crasnick's pieces for ESPN.com).
• A Jerry Manuel column on Gene Glynn and the importance of winning at Rochester this year. This is, I'm convinced, a bigger deal than most of us fans realize. Keeping Rochester as their Triple A affiliate is very important to the organization, and the contract is up after the 2012 season.
• The Twins top 10 prospects story. The issue is built around the prospect ratings for the five AL Central teams, including the Twins.

A few things gleaned from the rankings:

• Last summer's first-round draft pick, infielder Levi Michael, was known to be playing with an injury as North Carolina made it to the College World Series. Michael signed late and not only didn't play in the minors last season, he didn't play in instructionals either. BA says Michael's injury was "initially misdiagnosed."
• A reason to try to get to some Midwest League games next summer: The Beloit Snappers infield is likely to have Sano (prospect No. 1) at third base, Eddie Rosario (No. 3) at second base and Michael (No. 6) at shortstop. That could be the infield in Minnesota by the end of 2014.
• BA is not as high on Chris Parmelee (No. 9) as I am. Their write-up on him concludes: "He'll have to improve against lefties to be more than a second-division regular or platoon player."
• Those of us eager to see Brian Dozier (No. 10) get his shot in the Twins middle infield in 2012 may be disappointed. BA's summary on him is "Dozier is similar to Jamey Carroll, whom the Twins signed for two years this offseason. He could replace Carroll at the end of that contract, or learn under him as a utility player before that."

The Twins' top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America:

Sano; outfielder Joe Benson; Rosario; outfielder Aaron Hicks; outfielder Oswaldo Arcia; Michael; pitcher Liam Hendricks; pitcher Kyle Gibson; Parmelee; Dozier.

It's all worth checking out.

Big news day: Jim Thome, Delmon Young, draftees signed

Jim Thome's 600th career homer was his 11th of the
season, and his fourth off a left-handed pitcher.

News item: Jim Thome hit his 600th home run Monday night.

Comment: The milestone feels devalued in the wake of the Steroids Era, but 600 taters is a lot of mashing.

This may sound a bit cynical, but now that Thome's gotten No. 600, I expect the Twins to move him in a waiver deal. 

Thome would, I'm sure, like another chance to win a World Series, and that clearly isn't happening in Minnesota this year. There are probably contenders willing to take on the rest of his salary. Heck, somebody was willing to take on Delmon Young's ... but that's another item.

I doubt Thome will slide through waivers all the way to the Phillies, but that's a team that might be particularly interested in adding a left-handed pinch-hitter who could DH in the World Series.

Delmon Young in the Olde English D. His brother
Dmitri starred for the Tigers about a decade ago.

News item: The Twins traded Delmon Young to Detroit for Cole Nelson and a player to be named.

Comment: I expect to say more about this trade and its ramifications in a separate post. For now, this point: As disappointing as Young was in Minnesota, he's going to be a regular for the Tigers.

Jim Leyland said he's already told Magglio Ordonez that the regular outfield the rest of the way will be Young, Austin Jackson and Brendan Boesch.

Levi Michael is officially part of the Twins system.

News item: The Twins signed their Big Three draftees — first rounder Levi Michael and sandwich picks Travis Harrison and Hudson Boyd — for a total of $3.18 million, which is about $730,000 above the "slots" recommended by the commissioner's office.

Comment: Baseball America reported that almost half the first-rounders were officially unsigned 10 minutes before the deadline. When all was said and done, only one first-rounder went unsigned, that being the Blue Jays pick. 

This last-minute scramble is silly.

An unlikely infield move

Today's the deadline to sign
Levi Michael and other draft picks.

As noted in the Monday print column, today is the deadline for teams to sign their 2011 draft picks, and the Twins' top three selections — Levi Michael, Travis Harrison and Hudson Boyd — are all unsigned.

I had this morning an outside-the-box idea regarding Michael, a middle infielder who played at North Carolina, an idea rooted in these facts:

• The Twins —as detailed in this post, and this one, and this one — have a hole at shortstop and are sorting again through their in-house options, even to the point of retrying players who've failed already;
• Michael, as a three-year starter at a major university, ought to be a pretty polished prospect already;
• Michael and the Twins have an apparent disagreement on how much he should get to sign;
• There are raw shortstop prospects already at the entry levels of the Twins system (James Beresford, Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco, Daniel Santana), while the primary shortstops at the higher levels (Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier) are more likely utility men in the majors rather than regular shortstops.

So the idea: Sign Michael to a major-league contract, add him to the 40-man roster, give him a couple weeks at Rochester or New Britain, then bring him to the majors in September and add him to the collection of guys getting an early tryout for the 2012 season.

That proposition should be worth a lower bonus for Michael — his options and service time clock would start ticking immediately.

I don't expect this to happen. The Twins are habitually conservative about promoting prospects, and err on the side of giving them too little challenge after signing them. But I sure won't complain if it does.

Shortstops past, present and future

At most positions, the first question about a prospect is: Can he hit? At shortstop (and catcher, and to a limited extent center field) the question is: Can he handle the position?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka
dodges a San Diego
baserunner.

Shortstop in particular is seen as the athlete's position. The best athlete on a high school team is probably going to be the shortstop. He needs the quickness to get to balls, the hands to field the grounders cleanly, the arm to make the infield's longest throws, the grace and body control to put it all together. And, to top it off, he needs the intelligence/instincts to know what the play is.

It's a high set of standards, and it's worth remembering that Greg Gagne — probably the best defensive shortstop the Twins have ever had and certainly the most reliable — was not certain to stick at the position as he made his way through the Twins system, that there were those in the organization who thought he should be a third baseman.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka has played four games at short for the Twins. To the naked eye, he has displayed impressive range and a suspect arm. He's been charged with two errors — one on a bobbled grounder, the other on an off-target throw — which gives him an ugly fielding percentage. To the (very limited) extent that the defensive metrics have anything to tell us, he's an average shortstop (0 in plus-minus, 0 in runs saved), which still puts him ahead of the other three men who've played shortstop for the Twins this season. Realistically, the stats from four games tell us nothing. Subjectively, he appears capable of handling the position.

Levi Michael was the 30th
overall pick earlier this month.

Also over the past few days, we've had an opportunity to observe Levi Michael, the Twins first round draft pick, playing short for North Carolina in the College World Series. The Twins say they expect Michael to stick at short; I suspect that's a minority opinion.

I haven't drawn any conclusion from what I've seen about Michael's shortstop future. I did see him come in for a grounder and make the play to first — a truly routine play, except that I have three times this year (once in spring training, twice in regular season) seem Trevor Plouffe play such balls into infield singles.

Michael knows how to come in grounders? Hey, right there he's ahead of Plouffe.

Drafting for a need

It's probably not fair to describe the Twins' selection of Levi Michael in the first round of the amateur draft Monday as a "need pick." He was generally reckoned to be worth a mid first-round pick, and the Twins got him near the end of the first round, about 10 picks lower than most mock drafts had him projected.

He may well have been "the best player available," impossible to gauge as that is in a field of amateurs of various ages, skill sets and experience.

But the choice is being well-received in Twins blogdom BECAUSE he is a collegiate shortstop, and thus perceived as (a) nearly major-league ready (b) at a position at which the major league team is searching for an answer without a clear option in the upper levels of its farm system. (OK, here's a lukewarm reception.)

Which sure sounds like a need pick.

Point B is clearly true. The Alexi Casilla tease is back on -- Casilla's hot streak at the plate has jacked his batting average above the .250 mark, and he's making good decisions at short. Had he played in the field in April and May the way he has in the past week, shortstop would not be reckoned a disaster area. But one week of stellar play doesn't override the long stretch of lousy play, and Casilla has lost the benefit of the doubt. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is playing shortstop on his rehab assignment, and he's going to get the job when he's activated.

Point A -- that Michael is close to ready -- is far from established. He is young for a college pick -- he graduated high school a semester early, and spent what would have been his senior season of high school ball playing second base for North Carolina. He has one (injury-hampered) season at short in college, and the scouts are apparently not completely sold on him as a shortstop.

He'll start, once he signs (which won't be immediate), in the intermediate levels of the farm system, possibly at high A Fort Myers. There he'll not only have to display the physical tools to play shortstop but the judgment.

It's the latter that probably matters most. A shortstop only needs enough ability to make the plays that are there to make and the judgment to know what that play is. It was judgment that made Greg Gagne an outstanding shortstop; it is judgment that wins Gold Gloves for Derek Jeter. And it is a lack of judgment that has repeatedly undermined Casilla and Trevor Plouffe.

If Michael displays that judgment once he enters the system, he may well rocket up the ladder. But the Twins have been stocking the lower levels of their minors in the past year or so with shortstop possibilities, many of them as foreign signees, and some of them (James Beresford and Brian Dozier) are at or above the level at which Michael will enter.

In short, Michael faces more competition in the system that most of us realize.

And the Twins select ... Levi Michael

North Carolina's Levi Michael has been slowed this season
with an ankle injury, but it is not viewed as a long-term
concern, according to Baseball America.

Surprise: A college infielder.

It's been a while since the Twins used a first round pick on a collegiate hitter of any position. Michael breaks their mold — he's a switch hitter who started at second base as a freshman at North Carolina, at third base as a sophomore and this year at shortstop.

From Baseball America:

He's been a reliable defender at all three spots, and scouts are warming up to the idea that he could stay at shortstop at the pro level.  ... A patient hitter with a good eye from both sides of the plate ... hits to all fields and could hit at the top of the batting order, though he shows pop and is naturally stronger from the right side.  ...  Defensively, he has good actions and enough arm strength for shortstop. The only concern is his range ...

BA's mock drafts had him going well ahead of the Twins.

BA's Jim Callis tweets: Did not think Joe Panik would go ahead of Levi Michael. Michael has been banged up, so Twins get a bargain at 30.

Sean Gilmartin, by the way, was picked by Atlanta at No. 28. Panik, referenced by the Callis tweet, is a left-handed hitting infielder from St. John's taken by the Giants at No. 29; he's probably limited to second base in the pros because of a shoulder injury, which is why Callis expected Michael to go higher.

If Michael is indeed a bona fide shortstop, the Twins will be grateful he lasted so long in this draft.

---

The Twins drafted a high school third baseman, Travis Harrison, with their first compensation pick, and another high schooler, right-handed pitcher Hudson Boyd, with their second comp pick.

Harrison is a power prospect — this might be what I've called the Mathew LeCroy Memorial Pick. The Twins frequently use a supplemental or second round selection on somebody whose main tool is power, often without any other significant attribute — LeCroy, Henry Sanchez, Danny Rams. Harrison may not be able to play third in the pros, and there is divergent opinions on his ability to hit for average.

Boyd is a big body (6-3, 235 pounds), which means he's not "projectable"  -- he is physically what he is. His fastball velocity is in the low 90s, and probably not going to improve. (He's also from Fort Myers, Fla., the Twins spring training base.) Good breaking ball, change-up needs work —which is to be expected of a high schooler.

For what it's worth, Baseball America ranked Michael the 22nd best player in the pool, Boyd 58th and Harrison 78th.