Monday, July 29, 2013

Considering trade options

Ryan Doumit was charged Sunday with his first
outfielding error of the season on this line drive.
The July 31 nonwaiver trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Twins, obviously, will be in "seller" mode.

But we often don't ask the right question about possible trades. The common question is something like: Should the Twins trade Glen Perkins? whereas the proper question is: Would the return on Perkins be worth trading him? (Answer: probably not.)

There is a general anticipation that the Twins will trade Justin Morneau this week. I wonder if there wouldn't be more value in trading Ryan Doumit, or at least more interest on the part of other teams in Doumit.

Morneau is a first baseman who can also DH. Doumit is properly thought of as a DH who can be used at catcher or a corner outfield. Morneau is a free agent after the season; Doumit has a year left on his contract at $3.5 million.

Both are more valuable for their hitting than for their defense, and neither is hitting all that well; Doumit is having the worst offensive season of his career.And the midseason trade market for hitters is frequently softer than for pitchers, although the possibility that some significant hitters for playoff contenders (notably Nelson Cruz of Texas) are about to be suspended may raise the demand.

The Twins do have the catcher/outfielder to take Doumit's roster role in Chris Herrmann. The two have been splitting right field and catching chores during Joe Mauer's paternity leave; trading Doumit would probably require bringing back one of the Oswaldo Arcia-Chris Parmelee duo shipped out to the minors just before the All-Star break, and I'm not sure the Twins are eager to do that.

But the key issue, again, is what kind of return the Twins could get. And I suspect it's more likely the Twins would get enough to move Doumit.

1 comment:

  1. I think that the most likely to be traded, in no particular order, are Doumit, Thosmas, Deunsing, and Carroll. Perhaps Burton as well. I never thought they could get enough to move Perkins. While they may want to trade Morneau, I doubt if there will be quite enough interest. There are perhaps enough other options on the market to make trading Morneau unlikely. Not that I think the return from any of the first four will be that special.