Where they stand: First base

Presumptive regular: C.J. Cron

Others on the 40: Tyler Austin, possibly Miguel Sano

Nonroster notables: Brent Rooker

I've put off this position for a week or so in large part because I don't really have anything new to say. Of the three position-player additions for the Twins this offseason, Cron is the one I have the most trouble with. A right-handed first baseman who hits dingers but is chronically weak in on-base percentage and spent most of 2017 as a DH ... he's pretty much the opposite of Joe Mauer.

I'm not sure he gives the Twins anything they couldn't get from Austin. Or the departed Byung-ho Park, for that matter. On the other hand, Park and Austin had have frequent injuries. Cron has had only one 500-plate appearance season as a full-fledged regular, but that's for lack of opportunity, not injuries.

Right-right first basemen don't often get repeated opportunities; some never get an opportunity. Cron got one and took advantage of it.

He's on a one-year deal here, and I think it likely that the 2020 first baseman will be Brent Rooker, who figures to open 2019 in Triple A Rochester. He didn't dominate Double A statistically in 2018 as he did High A in his limited time after being drafted in 2017, but I think he's the future at first base for the Twins. Cron is just filling the gap.

Thinking first base

I doubt that the Twins view C.J. Cron as their 2019 first base solution. This may be wishful thinking, but I doubt it anyway -- first, because he's not the kind of hitter a analytically inclined operation should be coveting anyway, second because adding him while subtracting Robbie Grossman (nontendered), Joe Mauer (retired) and Logan Morrison (free agent) leaves them short an established bat to share first base and the DH slot.

Yes, they have Tyler Austin still, and yes, they have Brant Rooker in the farm system, but

• Rooker needs more minor league time and
• Between Cron, Miguel Sano and Austin, there is way too much right-handed swing-and-miss going on. Too much of the same set of tools-and-flaw for one lineup.

Morrison ended his 2018 season early for hip surgery. He had a disappointing season and there's no telling from the outside what his medicals look like, but he hits left-handed, and that's at least a different ingredient for the mix. I don't really expect the Twins to re-sign him, but I wouldn't rule it out.

So I expect the Twins will do something, either in trade or free agency, to acquire a left-handed (or switch-hitting) first baseman/DH. One of the names that came readily to mind as I pondered this while dealing with a weekend virus was Carlos Santana. The Phillies shipped the former Cleveland standout to Seattle on Monday, but he's probably still available, as the Mariners are selling pretty much any player of immediate value. 

I really like Santana. Even whne hitting a disappointing .229 in 2018, he still popped 24 homers and took 110 walks. I am surprised, looking at his career stats in the above link, that he's never hit for average. But he's never been a truly poor hitter, and he's become a good defensive first baseman after years of being a bad catcher and a truly misbegotten attempt to play third base.

There are two drawbacks to Santana: He turns 33 in April and he's got some $40 million coming over the next two seasons. 

Still, considering the obvious teardown in Seattle, his main purpose with the M's is as to be turned into something of future value. There is a deal to be made there.

First base with and without Mauer

A year ago I figured that Joe Mauer would retire at the expiration of his contract after the 2018 season. His 2017 resurgence may change that equation, but he'll be 35, his daughters will be about ready to start school, he'll have collected more than $200 million in salary over the course of his career -- yeah, he might well decide to hang 'em up.

Then what for the Twins at first base? For that matter, who's behind Mauer for 2018?

Mauer played more than 72 percent of the team's innings at first base. Kennys Vargas picked the majority of the rest. But Vargas

• hasn't been very productive as a major league hitter
• is finally out of options
• isn't a lock to remain on the 40-man roster this winter and
• is seriously contemplating playing in Japan or Korea

Byungho Park might be seriously contemplating a return to his native Korea. He slugged a mere .415 in Triple A, and if Park ain't hitting for power, he ain't doing much. His walk to strikeout ratio with Rochester (28 bases on balls, 130 strikeouts) was ugly. He has one more year on his Twins contract, he's not on the 40-man roster and this front office has no investment in him.

In my opinion, it's likely that neither Vargas nor Park is with the Twins next year.

Many assume that Miguel Sano is destined for first base once that position is vacated (he played 65 inning there this year). My guess is that if he's too big to stay healthy at third base, he's not real likely to stay healthy at first either. The Twins have long ought to avoid a full-time DH, but that is, in my view, his more likely destination if third base doesn't work for him.

Sano is right-right -- bats right, throws right. John Manuel, for this week still the editor of Baseball America and after that a member of the Twins pro scouting department, had a recent piece about the scouting bias against right-right first basemen. (Byungho Park certainly isn't a data point to discredit the bias.)

The hitter in the system who most interests me as a post-Mauer first base candidate is also right-right: Brent Rooker, who raked at two levels in the farm system after the Twins plucked him with a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.

He's right-right, he's probably not athletic enough for the outfield and as a college senior draft he was older than his competition at both Rookie and High A ball. These are significant drawbacks. He also hit 11 homers in 40 games in the Florida State League with Hammond Stadium as his home park, and that doesn't happen very often.

Presumably Rooker will advance to Double-A in the spring. Then we might get a better read on his future.

Contemplating the first base situation

Joe Mauer rounds the bases Wednesday after
his home run off Baltimore's Bud Norris.

At the end of the game of June 16 (a loss at St. Louis ), Joe Mauer was hitting .253 with an on-base percentage of .318 and a slugging percentage of .346. An OPS of .664 isn't particularly impressive from a shortstop, much less a first baseman, and there was a growing murmur among the fan base about his decline,

Since then Mauer has hit .351 with four homers, including one Wednesday afternoon. His slash line for the season is still unimpressive for a first baseman, but it's no longer the worst season of his illustrious career.

I am occasionally asked about  moving Mauer to another position or about pulling him from a regular role altogether. I don't see the first happening at all, and the latter won't come this year, or probably next either.

Mauer is 32. He was never gifted with great speed, catching tends to make its practitioners heavy-legged, and everybody gets slower with age. Mauer's at an age when good hitters tend to get slid to less demanding defensive positions and bad hitters fade out of the league. First base is the least demanding defensive position. He's not going to shift to a tougher one.

Granted, as a first baseman, he's got to hit better than he has in the year-and-a-half since he took that role. But the Twins will keep him in the lineup, and high in the lineup, until it's clear that they have better options. They are a long way from deciding that.

Here's an indication of what opposing teams think about Mauer as a hitter: He has 10 intentional walks already. Nobody else has more than four (Kurt Suzuki and Oswaldo Arcia). Brian Dozier and Torii Hunter have one IBB apiece. Teams aren't walking those guys to get to Mauer; they will walk Mauer to get to the cleanup hitter. Mauer remains the hitter they worry about. (For his career, Mauer has 125 IBB with a season high of 21; Hunter just 52 in a much longer span.)

Mauer has three years left on his contract after this season. It's quite possible that by the 2018 season, his age-35 year, he won't be the regular first baseman. He might be a full-time DH by then; he might be a part-time player. But Mauer and the Twins aren't to that point yet.

The Twins by position: First base

Joe Mauer turns 32 in April. His contract extends through
the 2018 season and no longer the longest committment
on the roster.

2014 was a year of high expectations at the plate for Joe Mauer. With the long-debated position switch from catcher officially in place, the three-time batting champ was expected to at least stave off the usual decline of age, and certainly to stay in the lineup more consistently.

Expectations were not met. It war arguably the worst hitting season of his illustrious career, and now he goes into 2015 with some question marks. Good hitting catchers, as an historic rule, fall off a statistical cliff early in their 30s, and Mauer was primarily a catcher though his age 30 season. Was 2014 the new normal for the veteran, or was it an aberration perhaps triggered by the serious concussion that put an early close to his 2013 season?

Even in 2014, Mauer was not a complete zero at the plate. He still led the team's regulars in on-base percentage, and his OPS-plus was still 7 percent above league average. He was still pretty good, but the Twins need more than pretty good from him.

In terms of depth behind him: Kennys Vargas remains and figures to enter the season as the primary designated hitter. Chris Colabello and Chris Parmelee were designated for assignment during the winter; Colabello was claimed by Toronto on waivers and Parmelee, who opted for free agency, is, as far as I know, still unsigned. Colabello and Parmelee got most of the first base time in Triple A; my guess is that a minor league free agent will handle the position for Rochester this summer.

Who's on first next year?

Justin Morneau looks at umpire C.B. Bucknor
after being called out on strikes.

The Monday print column expanded a bit on a post from last week about Joe Mauer and the possibility that his current concussion will hasten a position change for the Twins star.

But let's say Mauer remains the Twins primary catcher. What are the first base options for 2014?

Justin Morneau will be a free agent this winter. For all the trade speculation that surrounded the former MVP this summer, there really appears to have been limited interest in him elsewhere.

He's no longer a franchise centerpiece and doesn't belong in the middle of the order anymore, but ... he's probably more valuable to the Twins than he is to anybody else, he's put down roots in Minnesota, and the rise of the likes of Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton means the Twins may, as early as the middle of 2014, be in a position to move Morneau to a place in the bottom half of the lineup.

Current take: I'd say it's at least 50-50 that Morneau is the Twins first baseman next year.

Chris Parmelee, long the heir apparent at first base, was the regular right fielder early on but didn't hit. He was optioned out at the All-Star break, a move that surprised me more than it probably should have, and ... he hasn't hit in Rochester either (.225/.331/.355). It's the dismal slugging percentage that is most alarming. I really expected him to grab Triple A by the throat, as he did in 2012. That didn't happen.

Current take: I think Parmelee is out of options after this season. He may not get a September call-up. He certainly can't be prominent in the front office's plans for 2014.

Chris Colabello has bounced up and down between Minnesota and Rochester in the second half. The minor league veteran has dominated the International League but has been highly strikeout-prone in limited major-league at-bats.

Current take: I have difficulty imagining the Twins committing this offseason to Colabello as a regular. He has a better shot than Parmelee, but his best chance is as an injury replacement.

Jose Abreu is an intriguing notion, and probably the free agent first baseman with the most potential to pay off. He's a Cuban defector, 26, who has been a masher in the top league on the island. He's establishing residency in Haiti and his immigration status is far from settled, but the speculation is that someone will offer him a six-year, $60 million deal to play in the United States when he's cleared.

Current take: The Twins don't have a track record of pursuing big-bucks free agents, and they don't appear often in the "informed speculation" around Abreu. That kind of talk has focused on the likes of Texas, Boston and the Mets. But few thought Oakland would land Yoenis Cepedes, and few connected Cincinnati with Aroldis Chapman; the big-market teams haven't often splurged on the Cubans. The Twins have the budget room to make a $10 million-a-year commitment (especially with Morneau coming off the books); it's far from certain they have the gambler's mentality the move would take.

Conclusion

All of this hinges on Mauer. If he and the Twins want to keep him as a primary catcher, first base is there to be filled. If it's deemed time to move him, first base is his most likely destination, and everybody else is out of luck.