Minors stuff

Alex Meyer made
Baseball America's
midseason Top 50
prospects list.

Baseball America on Monday released its midseason re-ranking of its top 50 prospects. This July's list has Byron Buxton at No. 1 and Miguel Sano at No. 3. A third Twins prospect, Alex Meyer, is No. 32.

In its Top 100 list of February, BA had Sano at No. 9, Buxton 10 and Meyer at 59. Three others in its Top 100 — Oswaldo Arcia (41), Kyle Gibson (68) and Aaron Hicks (72) have graduated to the majors, and Arcia and Hicks have both had enough playing time in the bigs that they will never be on a BA prospects list again.

Buxton and Sano have clearly moved up some because others ranked ahead of them have graduated to the majors — and also because they've established that they have greater skills than they had coming into 2013. There is no longer any serious doubt that Sano is going to play third base in the major leagues (whether he'll spend his career at the hot corner is another matter), and Buxton has demonstrated a more mature hitting approach than scouts anticipated.

Meyer's rise on the chart comes as a greater surprise. His stats in Double A are certainly not horrible, but they aren't dominating, and he's been out of action for about a month now. (He's supposed to return to pitching in games in August.) I don't think he's really hurt his prospect status, but I don't see how he should be 27 spots higher. He was likely to make the Top 50 simply by attrition, however, so my argument is more a matter of placement.

I would have thought Eddie Rosario — who, granted, didn't make the preseason Top 100 and thus had a ways to rise to make the midseason 50 — would have been a more likely Top 50 candidate. As with Sano, Rosario has largely answered the questions about his ability to handle second base defensively. And he has continued to hit.

P.J. Walters opted
not to declare
free agency.

----

P.J. Walters, designated for assignment last week, cleared waivers and opted to remain in the Twins organization.

It's the second time in less than a year that every other team passed on the opportunity to add Walters to their major league roster, and the second time that he decided that if he's going to be Triple A fodder, it may as well be in the Twins organization.

Which may be the right decision for him. But if/when the Twins dip back into their farm system for a starter, Walters isn't likely to be the man they pull up. Vance Worley and Andrew Albers, to name two, are probably ahead of him right now.

Shuffling the pitchers

P.J. Walters collects himself before throwing his first
pitch Wednesday against the New York Yankees.

The Twins have swapped out a starting pitcher and rebranded some bullpen roles. Let's look:

P.J. Walters designated for assignment: Mike Pelfrey is coming off the disabled list to make Saturday's start. The Twitter buzz from the beat writers this week suggested that both Walters and Scott Diamond were pitching for their jobs in the Yankees series.

Diamond went 6.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned); he also had, according to Baseball reference, more groundballs than fly balls for the first time in four starts. Diamond lives on the grounders, and his GB rate this year is closer to average that top-of-the-charts, as it was last year.

For his part, Walters went five innings, allowing three runs, all earned. And it was Walters who lost his job.

Which, if it was indeed down to Diamond vs. Walters, the right choice. Neither man is gifted with overwhelming stuff, but Diamond has more markers in his favor (not the least of which is being left-handed).

Walters is out of options, and Diamond is not, but the call apparently wasn't close enough for that tow sway the decision. So now Walters enters the 10-day limbo of DFA and waits to see what happens.

Duensing, Burton slide down the bullpen hierarchy: The Twins eight-man bullpen has had two castes this season: The four late-and-close guys (closer Glen Perkins, set-up man Jared Burton, and middle men Casey Fien and Brian Duensing, who are generally used for fractional innings to get out of jams in the sixth and seventh), and the four longer men (Josh Roenicke, Anthony Swarzak and rookies Ryan Pressly and Caleb Thielbar).

Burton had a rough June (ERA 7.45 for the month) and he opened the new month by giving up three runs in one-third of an inning in Game 1 of the Yankees series.  So now Fien is supposedly going to be the eighth-inning guy while Burton works in lower-leverage situations.

It's less clear who gets the ball in Fien's customary role, which isn't exactly low-leverage. The Twins like a power arm in that job, and I would think that points to Pressly. But (a) they might prefer to give the veteran Roenicke the first shot and (b) Pressly hasn't been all that effective of late either.

Ideally Burton straightens things out quickly and reclaims the eighth-inning role. Fien may be just as good in that role as Burton, but the options for Fien's accustomed role are thin.

Caleb Thielbar has
walked seven and
allowed five hits
in his 18-plus innings.

Similarly, Thielbar has supplanted Duensing in the left-handed set-up role. Duensing, who has been death on left-handed hitters for most of his career, has not been nearly as effective this year (.292 batting average allowed to lefties).

Thielbar hasn't been charged with an earned run yet in the majors (18.2 innings), although he has allowed some inherited runners to score. Nor, through 16 games, has he ever been brought in with a lead.

So far, Ron Gardenhire has used Thielbar much as he used Craig Breslow in 2008. Dennys Reyes was Gardy's primary LOOGY (Left-handed One-Out GuY), and the manager wouldn't use Breslow in game situations. Pigeonholing Breslow into low-leverage situations only was one reason the Twins didn't win the divisional title that year.

The Twins aren't winning the division this year no matter how Thielbar is used. But maybe a lesson has been learned.

Kyle Gibson, Sam Deduno, P.J. Walters and "consistency"

P. J. Walters is 4-2,
3.31 in Rochester.

Word trickled out Thursday evening that P. J. Walters will inherit Vance Worley's rotation spot on Monday. How the space will be cleared (on either the 25-man active roster or the broader 40-man roster) is unclear; the Twins still have to make room on the 40-man roster for Sam Deduno, who is to start tonight in Detroit, much less make room for Walters.

The Twins' public rationale earlier this week for going with Deduno over Kyle Gibson — that Deduno has a good record against the Tigers and that Gibson needs to show more consistency — was a bit baffling.

Deduno started twice last season against Detroit and came away with a 9.64 ERA, which is neither good nor sufficient statistical evidence to make a judgment on. As for the consistency issue: Is there any pitcher anywhere more consistently inconsistent than Sam Deduno?

Giving Deduno the chance over Gibson doesn't really disturb me. Deduno's raw stuff is intriguing, and he probably would have been in the opening rotation had he not injured his groin in the championship game of the World Baseball Classic.

But going with Walters over Gibson ... that's another matter.

Gibson is supposed to be, eventually, a rotation anchor. Walters is back-of-the-rotation filler at best, more likely a "Quadruple-A" guy — good enough to thrive in the upper minors, not good enough to survive in the majors.

One of the top goals this season for the Twins has to be establishing Gibson in the major league rotation. This would seem a good opportunity to start on that project. Instead, the Twins are going with a low-ceiling alternative. They must have a reason for that, but I really don't see what it is.

Walters and Gibson have very similar records in Rochester this year. Gibson is 3-5, 3.25 with 52.2 innings in nine starts and 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings; Walters is 4-2, 3.31 in 54.1 innings in nine starts and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In total, there's isn't much difference between the two state lines.

Gibson has alternated brilliant starts with short, dismal ones. Perhaps the basic stuff is different from game to game, which would suggest lingering physical issues related to his rehab from Tommy John surgery. If that's the consistency the Twins refer to — being able to bring the same velocity and movement to each game — then I can grasp the point in leaving him in the minors. If the argument is that the results aren't consistent, I'm not buying it.

When Plan B comes before Plan A

The Minnesota Twins have lined up their Plan B options for the starting rotation.

Plan A? That's another matter.

The Twins ended the 2012 season with a starting rotation of Scott Diamond, Sam Deduno, P.J. Walters, Liam Hendriks and Esmerling Vasquez. Cole De Vries would have been part of that group but for a broken rib.

Sam Deduno chose
to stay with the Twins.

Diamond is a certainty for the 2013 rotation. He's part of Plan A; none of the other five are.

Deduno, Walters and Vasquez were all cut loose in the weeks since the season ended -- and all three have agreed to return on minor-league deals. (De Vries and Hendriks remain on the 40-man roster.)

The return of the outrighted trio is noteworthy. Usually a pitcher who can't keep his spot on the 40-man roster goes off in search of another employer.

That these three opted to remain, and that the Twins are letting them remain in the system, tells us a few things:

• They believe they got, and will get, a fair shake from the Twins;
• They believe there's better opportunity with Minnesota than elsewhere;
• The Twins don't see better alternatives pushing their way up to the higher levels of the the farm system.

I do not believe the Twins are re-signing them with intent to have been in the major league rotation. They are Plan B guys, fall-back options, rotation filler for Triple A who can step in for the big club if and when.

But for them to be Plan B, somebody else has to be Plan A. And that is the key to the Twins offseason, finding the pitchers who make De Vries, Hendriks, Walters, Vasquez and Deduno the Rochester rotation next spring.

Three pieces of pitching news

The Twins on Monday had three pitching related news items. None of them moved the process forward significantly, but in the absence of anything bigger to chew on, we'll chaw on them:

Nick Blackburn in
2012: 4-9, 7.39.

Scott Baker. The Twins formally declined his option Monday, which means he'll be a free agent on Friday. There is open and mutual interest in Baker remaining with the Twins, and I expect it will happen.

Nick Blackburn. The Twins had indicated at season's end that he was having his elbow checked out, and on Monday they announced that he had it scoped. Minor surgery, in the sense that it happened to somebody else and isn't expected to keep him out of spring training.

Nobody's blaming Blackburn's horrid 2012 on his elbow, but it couldn't have helped either. I remain wary of him, and I think that the Twins would be willing to hand him off for either payroll relief or a minor prospect. I also think nobody else will give them either for him.

P.J. Walters, outrighted last week, quickly signed a minor league contract with the Twins with spring training invite.

He rejoins the cast of characters I project to be in the running for the fifth starter spot, with Blackburn, Sam Deduno, Cole De Vries, Liam Hendriks and probably Brian Duensing. My guess is that, as was the case last year, he'll open in Rochester and hope for another opportunity.

First moves in reshaping the roster

Matt Capps: 1-4,
3.68 in 2012 with
14 saves.

The Twins announced on Wednesday their first roster moves of the offseason:

• They will not pick up their option on Matt Capps;
• They lost relief prospect Carlos Guterriez on waivers to the Chicago Cubs;
• They outrighted outfielder Matt Carson and right-handed pitchers Jeff Manship, Luis Perdomo, Esmerling Vasquez, Kyle Waldrop and P.J. Walters;
• They restored pitchers Scott Baker, Cole De Vries and Carl Pavano from the disabled list. 

Capps, Baker and Pavano will be free agents after the World Series, but for now they remain on the Twins 40-man roster. The others aren't, and many of them will also become free agents. For now, the Twins have 35 players on the 40-man roster.

I wouldn't rule out the Twins re-signing some of these guys. Walters and Waldrop might be of interest on minor league deals, and Capps' option was too pricey ($6 milion) for the role he would play if he returned.

But I don't expect any of them to be re-signed. If Capps does return, it will be for less than the $4 million he got in 2012, and without the promise of the closer's role. I think he'll look elsewhere. And for the others, being taken off the 40-man roster implies that they'd be behind the pitchers they did retain.

Walters, for example, would rank behind DeVries and Sam Deduno in the rotation pecking order, and the indications are that those two, and probably some others, will at best be duking it out for the fifth starter spot.

I'm slightly disappointed in the outrighting of Waldrop; I'd rather see him in the 2013 bullpen than Alex Burnett. But both are fringy middle relievers.

Some other notes:

Carlos Gutierrez, a
first-round pick,
never reached the
majors with the Twins.

Baker, who had Tommy John surgery around Opening Day and did not pitch, and the Twins are said to be making progress on a contract. It's uncertain Baker will be ready to pitch in the majors when the 2013 season begins.

Gutierrez was a first-round pick in 2007 who only appeared in 10 games last year for Triple A Rochester because of injury. The Cubs took a flier on him, but I'm not sure why they'd prefer him to Waldrop. They're both sinker-ballers with low strikeout rates, but as far as I can tell, Waldrop is the better of the two.

Vasquez put up some interesting numbers as a starter in Triple A, but given several starts in September in the majors displayed a reluctance to throw a breaking ball. Perdomo throws hard but without any real clue.

Rotation repair into infinity

P.J. Walters was charged with four earned runs in zero
innings Wednesday, which raised his ERA to 5.40.

P.J. Walters gave up four hits on 15 pitches Wednesday evening, at which point Ron Gardenhire came out to check on him (and then pull him from the game). Cory Provus said on the radio broadcast that Walters' fastball was short of its usual velocity -- and his usual velocity is not all that fast -- and Dan Gladden suggested that Walters has been dealing with shoulder issues in his two previous starts.

The Twins quickly announced that Walters would have an MRI exam on his shoulder today, an indication that this may not be a minor issue. After the game, Gardenhire said Lester Oliveros was being recalled from Triple A, with a corresponding move to be made after they get a diagnosis on Walters.

Also coming soon is a move to recall Liam Hendriks from Rochester to make Saturday's start, so a second roster slot needs to be opened. The Twins have another off day on Monday, so they could skip Walters' rotation slot for the next turn through.

My guess: They'll put Walters on the disabled list and send Jeff Manship back to Rochester this week.

Who will take Walters' place in the rotation next week? Carl Pavano is eligible to come off the DL on June 19, but as of Tuesday hadn't thrown a ball since his last start; he's not an immediate solution.

Cole DeVries might get another call-up. Or Brian Duensing, who has been much improved against righties this season out of the bullpen, could be called on to start. Or perhaps my Manship-to-the-minors notion was premature, and he'll get the ball the next time they need a fifth starter. But in that case, somebody else has to come off the active roster.

Decisions, decisions.

Addendum: Seth Stohs offers a detailed breakdown of the projected Twins and Rochester rotations here. His conclusion on the Twins rotation: They'll go with four starters for a while (Diamond, Liriano, Hendriks and Blackburn) and turn to Manship to fill the fifth starter gap when that becomes necessary.

It make sense. But there's still that nagging issue of how to get both Hendriks and Oliveros on the 25-man roster, one made all the more difficult by the desire to stay at 12 pitchers heading into the interleague road games (and no DH).

Contemplating P.J. Walters

P.J. Walters threw 84 pitches Friday against
the Cubs: 53 strikes, 31 balls, and two
home runs allowed.

After his start of May 27, P.J. Walters had an ERA of 2.96 after four starts, and at least one metro beat writer was calling him the Twins best starter.

Since then, he has allowed nine earned runs in 9.1 innings, and his ERA is 4.42.

It's just six starts and a total of 36.2 innings, but his limitations as a major league starter are becoming more clearly visible. He's surrendered seven homers already, the result of mediocre stuff and occasionally flawed command.

He's not Minnesota's best starter. He may not be the worst, either, but he's marginal.

He's going to get more opportunities to establish himself in the rotation — but that says more about the alternatives on hand than about his talent or his future.

The rotation merry-go-round

P.J. Walters embraces pitching coach
Rick Anderson after his complete game
five-hitter Tuesday night -- easily the
best outing of his unsubstantial
major league career.

Jason Marquis, out. Cole DeVries, in.

Marquis' grip on his job was slipping all season, and his dreadful start Sunday — and the strain it put on the bullpen — made his departure inevitable. Marquis is probably going to land another chance somewhere, most likely in the National League, but I doubt there'll be enough demand for his services for the Twins to trade him. I would expect him to be released.

DeVries is lined up to start Thursday. If we count Scott Baker, who never took the mound in the regular season, DeVries will be the Twins 10th starter -- and we haven't reached Memorial Day yet.

I am mildly surprised that DeVries got the call. Liam Hendriks would have seemed more likely. But I assume that the Twins don't want to yo-yo the Aussie up and down. When he comes back, it's with the intent that he stays.

And while Marquis isn't returning to the Twins rotation, there are two pitchers now out of it who do figure to return to it — Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn. I would expect that when Blackburn is ready to come off the DL, it will be into the rotation spot DeVries is about to fill.

Of course, the Greg McMichael Rule is always in effect: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you. 


DeVries -- who was so far down the totem pole this spring that he wasn't even in major league camp -- may look like a temp worker right now, but so did Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters when they showed up, and their status becomes more entrenched with each quality start.

There remains reason to be skeptical of Diamond and Walters. Their raw stuff is not imposing, and their records of success are limited. But they've been more effective this season than Blackburn or Liriano, and if they keep getting outs, they'll keep getting the ball. And if one or both splutters, their roles can vanish quickly.

And the same will apply to DeVries. If he gets outs, he'll get the ball. If not, somebody else will. This is his chance.

Shake it up

Wednesday's game followed an all-too-familiar pattern for the Twins: The starting pitcher (in this case Carl Pavano) gave up multiple runs early, the bullpen did a decent job (one run allowed in five innings), the hitters got some men on base but failed to fully capitalize on the opportunities, and the Twins lost.

Ibid.

P.J. Walters inherits
Francisco Liriano's
slot in the starting
rotation.

What came after the game wasn't the same old, same old. Some significant moves were made — both in terms of roster and roles. Let's sort through the carnage:

Pitching: Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, P.J. Walters brought up to start on Saturday, Matt Maloney designated for assignment.

The attempt to reset Liriano by skipping a start didn't work, and so the next step is taken.

Liriano figures to get low-leverage innings — long relief and mop-up chores. Which is basically what Maloney was doing. Maloney's minor league stats intrigued me from the day the Twins claimed him on waivers from Cincinnati, but he didn't pitch anywhere near well enough to keep his job, much less find an expanded role.

Walters is a right-hander who has gotten 51 major league innings, mostly with St. Louis, and was signed as a minor-league free agent with more of an eye on improving the Rochester staff than the major league staff. He's done pretty well in Rochester (3-1, 2.70), so he got the call. I'm not sure he's any better than Anthony Swarzak.

Darin Mastroianni
got into one game
for the Blue Jays
in 2011, going 0-for-3.

Position players: Danny Valencia optioned to Rochester, Darin Mastroianni called up.

Valencia was 0-for-May. His slugging percentage had fallen below .300. And his defense at third is still nothing to hang his hat on.

Mastroianni is yet another fourth-outfielder type — runs well enough to play center, throws well enough to play right, doesn't have enough thump to be a regular.  He was hitting .365 in Rochester with 10 steals. He's played a little at second base, but I doubt he's proficient at it.

One of the beat writers said on Twitter that Alexi Casilla, Jamey Carroll and Trevor Plouffe would split time at third base. I think it's more likely that Carroll will play second and Casilla will get the bulk of the time at third. In a sense, this replicates the 2006 infield configuration after the Twins axed Juan Castro and Tony Batista: Luis Castillo at second, Nick Punto at third and the rookie Jason Bartlett at short.

Mastroianni may platoon with Erik Komatsu in right field, at least until Justin Morneau returns from the disabled list and forces Ryan Doumit out of regular DH duties.

If Valencia's job wasn't safe, Plouffe's can't be either.

While we were waiting ...

The Twins continue at this writing to grind with painful slowness to a conclusion to their right field free agent drama.

For public consumption, as in the Associated Press story we're running in this morning's paper, Terry Ryan is not closing any doors on Michael Cuddyer. But if Josh Willingham's in town for his pre-signing physical (as reported by the Strib's Joe Christensen) the train has left the station and Cuddy's not on it. If Cuddyer calls Ryan today and says OK, I'll take last week's offer, is Ryan really going to pull the Willingham deal? I can't see it.

Which leaves the question of why Ryan's putting up the pretense that nothing's settled. Joe C. blogged last night that his sources have been particularly "cautious" about this signing, and he doesn't know why. My guess is that it's a sign of genuine respect for Cuddyer and a reluctance to cut the ties.

Meanwhile, the Twins on Wednesday did announce three minor league signings of guys who played some in the majors in 2011 and who figure to be minor-league depth.

P.J. Walters, right handed pitcher, has 51 major league innings without much success. His strikeout rates in the minors (and even in the majors) have been better than those of most starters in the Twins system, but his walk rates are a bit higher than the Twins prefer, and he really hasn't translated his ability to miss bats into low ERAs.

Rene Rivera: Back
for more.

Rene Rivera is a familiar figure; he spent much of 2010 with the Twins as one of the not-Mauer catchers. He will again be a non-roster invite to spring training and organizational depth at Rochester. There are three catchers on the 40 who rank ahead of him (Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera), and a couple coming up from behind (Chris Herrmann and Danny Lehmann), so Rivera's chances of picking up more service time aren't as good as last season.

Sean Burroughs is an odd signing, but then he's had an odd career/life. Son of an MVP, Little League World Series hero, Olympic gold medal winner, flameout prospect, derelict, reborn major leaguer ...

He's 31 now, and why he'd pick the Twins as his next stop is baffling. He hasn't the power to be a major league regular, at least not at third base, and he's no middle infielder defensively. If he's going to carve out a career in his 30s, it's going to be as a pinch-hit specialist. Those jobs are rare in this era of 12-man pitching staffs, and where they do exist, they're with National League teams.