James Shields came to terms with the San Diego Padres, which means the order for June's draft is set.
The Twins draft, as detailed here by Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, 6, 73 and 80. They surrendered the 47th pick when they signed Ervin Santana.
Also via Berardino, Baseball America estimates the Twins will have a draft pool of $7,691,684. They figure to have the 12th largest pool.
Berardino echoes the conventional wisdom, that giving up that second round pick is worthwhile if Santana stays healthy. That's a sizable if. Santana is 32 and has quite a bit of mileage. Long-term contracts for pitchers have a tendency to sour quickly. I was neutral on the signing at the time but concerned about the number of veterans blocking the prospects. Nothing's happened this winter to change that.
Showing posts with label James Shields. Show all posts
Showing posts with label James Shields. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Thursday, February 5, 2015
The last big free agent
Last month, when Max Scherzer settled on the Washington Nationals for his next team, I opined that none of the compensation pick free agents had gotten burned this winter by deciding against taking the qualifying offer.
A couple of weeks later, James Shields is still out there.
I have a difficult time believing that he's going to get truly burned. I still expect that he'll land a multi-year deal, and probably at an annual rate higher than the $14.6 million of the qualifying offer.
But the chatter earlier this winter -- that he'd turned down a $110 million offer -- has faded away, and the current rumors have him likely to settle for something under $100 million total, maybe less than $80 million. Which would be darn good money for thee or me, but something of a disappointment for him.
Is there an opportunity for the Twins to swoop in? Probably not. In the abstract, I'd rather have Shields than Ervin Santana, but Santana was willing to sign in December and Shields wasn't, and even at $80 million Shields would be considerably more expensive than Santana, I certainly wouldn't sign Shields unless I was dead certain I could move Ricky Nolasco's contract, and I can't see that happening.
Still, it's a curiosity that Shields remains on the market. His durability may be working against him; he's entering his age 33 season, he's topped 200 innings each of the past eight years, and teams may suspect that sooner or later some body part is going to give out. He's likely being picky about where he goes (there's chatter that he's more interested in pitching for a California team, and he's probably not interested in a building project.)
Whether it's his choice or that of the individual teams, he's still out there. And until he signs, we can't close the door on the compensation pick issue for this offseason,
A couple of weeks later, James Shields is still out there.
I have a difficult time believing that he's going to get truly burned. I still expect that he'll land a multi-year deal, and probably at an annual rate higher than the $14.6 million of the qualifying offer.
But the chatter earlier this winter -- that he'd turned down a $110 million offer -- has faded away, and the current rumors have him likely to settle for something under $100 million total, maybe less than $80 million. Which would be darn good money for thee or me, but something of a disappointment for him.
Is there an opportunity for the Twins to swoop in? Probably not. In the abstract, I'd rather have Shields than Ervin Santana, but Santana was willing to sign in December and Shields wasn't, and even at $80 million Shields would be considerably more expensive than Santana, I certainly wouldn't sign Shields unless I was dead certain I could move Ricky Nolasco's contract, and I can't see that happening.
Still, it's a curiosity that Shields remains on the market. His durability may be working against him; he's entering his age 33 season, he's topped 200 innings each of the past eight years, and teams may suspect that sooner or later some body part is going to give out. He's likely being picky about where he goes (there's chatter that he's more interested in pitching for a California team, and he's probably not interested in a building project.)
Whether it's his choice or that of the individual teams, he's still out there. And until he signs, we can't close the door on the compensation pick issue for this offseason,
Monday, December 10, 2012
Around the division: Kansas City Royals
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| James Shields has exceeded 200 innings in each of the past six seasons. |
The reconsidered view proved more correct: The Kansas City Royals on Sunday traded four top prospects for Shields, Wade Davis and a player to be named. They also acquired a great deal of social media mockery.
They earned every bit of that mockery.
It isn't that Shields and Davis are bad pitchers, by any means. It's that this was a horrendous overpay on the part of Kansas City. Wil Myers is one of the very best prospects in the minor leagues, fully ready to step into the middle of a major league lineup. Jake Odorizzi is a nearly-ready starter. Mike Montgomery's luster has faded after a pair of disappointing seasons in the upper minors, but he remains too talented to count out. Patrick Leonard is further away, but talented.
This was a deal of desperation on the part of the Royals front office. Dayton Moore has been in charge for seven years, and the Royals, despite building an impressive stack of prospects, have not reached .500, much less reached the playoffs, under his regime. The basic problem: The young starting pitchers have failed to develop, and the Kansas City rotation last year was as much a mess as Minnesota's.
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| Wil Myers was Baseball America's minor league player of the year in 2012. |
This improves the Royals; they figure now to be a .500 team, maybe a little better, perhaps a wild-card contender. I don't think that two years of James Shields justifies giving up Myers' career. I don't think Davis justifies giving up Odorizzi's career. And that's not counting the Montgomery and Leonard lottery tickets.
Moore may have figured he needs to achieve at least .500 in 2013 much to keep his job. Or, to be charitable, he may have a different sense of how close his team is to a true breakthrough. If he really thinks his team is now a World Series contender, he's pretty close to unique. This looks like a desperate move by a desperate GM, and desperation is seldom productive.
As a Twins fan, this trade pleases me. Terry Ryan is assembling a crop of prospects -- Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer, Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, J.O. Berrios and others -- worthy of comparison to the Royals farm system of a few years ago; this trade may well mean that when Ryan's prospects are ready in a couple of years, the Royals won't be an obstacle. At least, they won't be as formidable an obstacle as they could have been.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Reconsidering the pitching market
Earlier this month I offered this notion: that a trade of Chris Parmelee for James Shields was a possibility.
Now I have my doubts about that's a realistic exchange.
Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk on Tuesday, in the context of critiquing some ESPN Insiders takes on the pending free agent crop, listed 20 teams he thought would be in the market for a $10-million-a-year starting pitcher. His list does not include the Twins.
Call it a conservative list on his part. I think the Twins payroll could handle such a pitcher -- they're shedding something in the vicinity of $18 million in starting pitcher salary at the end of the season (Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, most of Jason Marquis, a sizable share of Francisco Liriano). They certainly have the need for such a starter.
Even if you include the Twins on the list of teams looking to add a pricey pitcher, Pouliot's point remains: Lots of potential buyers with darn few pitchers to actually spend the money on. The free agent crop has Zach Greinke, with Edwin Jackson as the next best, in Pouliot's estimation.
In my estimation, Shields is a far better, and (at least in terms of salary) cheaper, pitcher than Jackson. Which means Tampa Bay is likely to have a multitude of suitors if Shields is to be auctioned off. And Parmelee may not be sufficient to land him.
It may be a difficult offseason in which to acquire established pitching talent.
Now I have my doubts about that's a realistic exchange.
Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk on Tuesday, in the context of critiquing some ESPN Insiders takes on the pending free agent crop, listed 20 teams he thought would be in the market for a $10-million-a-year starting pitcher. His list does not include the Twins.
Call it a conservative list on his part. I think the Twins payroll could handle such a pitcher -- they're shedding something in the vicinity of $18 million in starting pitcher salary at the end of the season (Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, most of Jason Marquis, a sizable share of Francisco Liriano). They certainly have the need for such a starter.
Even if you include the Twins on the list of teams looking to add a pricey pitcher, Pouliot's point remains: Lots of potential buyers with darn few pitchers to actually spend the money on. The free agent crop has Zach Greinke, with Edwin Jackson as the next best, in Pouliot's estimation.
In my estimation, Shields is a far better, and (at least in terms of salary) cheaper, pitcher than Jackson. Which means Tampa Bay is likely to have a multitude of suitors if Shields is to be auctioned off. And Parmelee may not be sufficient to land him.
It may be a difficult offseason in which to acquire established pitching talent.
Monday, September 3, 2012
One idea for a first base trade
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| Chris Parmelee had a big series this weekend in Kansas City, with two home runs. |
Here's the core for a potential trade: Chris Parmelee to Tampa Bay for James Shields.
Allow me to interject here that this is solely me thinking aloud. This is not based on any sort of inside information, or even on a trade rumor. It's not necessarily something either team is thinking about -- but as I see it, it's something both teams ought to be considering.
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| James Shields is 12-8, 3.91 for Tampa Bay this season |
Shields has won between 11 and 16 games in each of the past six seasons (including this one) while piling up innings (200-plus each season 2007-2011, with 182 so far this year) and racking up above-average strikeout rates.
But the Rays are so awash in young pitching talent that Shields may be no better than their fourth best starter (certainly behind David Price, maybe behind Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson). Plus they have Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and rookie Alex Cobb.
Shields is also getting more expensive than Tampa Bay is likely to retain; his contract has club options for 2013 ($9 million with a $1.5 million buyout) and 2014 ($12 million with a $1 million buyout). They're likely to try to move him this winter.
And first base has been a black hole for the Rays this season as they chase the Yankees. Carlos Pena is hitting .188/.318/.338, which wouldn't get the job done for a Gold Glove shortstop.
Parmelee would fit their mode: Young, cheap, with some positional flexibility -- and he sure looks like he can hit.
With Carl Pavano ($8.5 million), Scott Baker ($6.5 million), Jason Marquis ($3 million) and Francisco Liriano ($5.5 million) all coming off the books, the Twins could certainly absorb Shields' option for 2013, probably for 2014. And he would definitely make the Twins rotation better.
To do such a trade, of course, the Twins would probably want to secure Justin Morneau beyond 2013. If they mistrust his ability to remain healthy and productive, they probably won't want to trade Parmelee.
There may be other reasons either team would shy away from such a deal, but I don't know what they would be. Both teams would be trading from a surplus and filling a need.
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