The value of outfield defense

Byron Buxton goes into the wall
for an eighth-inning grab.

I wrote earlier this week of some notably declarative utterances by Twins general manager Terry Ryan about Miguel Sano on Sunday. Since then the Twins have been considerably more vague about Sano, who is slated to play Friday in a rehab assignment with Triple A Rochester.

Sano was quoted this week as saying that as far as he knows, he's still an outfielder. Paul Molitor suggested that the nature of Sano's injury (hamstring) may lead to keeping the big slugger out of the outfield. The word from the TV broadcasters Wednesday night was that Sano is to play various positions during his rehab stint.

Meanwhile, Trevor Plouffe has had games at first base and designated hitter as well as at third this week, and Byung Ho Park has sat a few times. To be sure, Molitor suddenly has a number of hot-hitting infielders to fit into the lineup, but the bulk of the where-does-Sano-fit chatter still leads to third base or designated hitter rather than the outfield.

Byron Buxton and Max Kepler combined to give a little demonstration in the eighth inning Wednesday of why that's a good idea,

First Kepler -- who did mishandle a ball earlier in the game that cost the Twins a pair of runs -- made a diving catch in right field. Buxton followed with the catch shown at right.

Lesser outfielders don't make those plays. And Sano is definitely a lesser outfielder.

To be sure, outfielders need to hit too. Kepler drove in a pair of runs Wednesday and Buxton singled, walked and scored, so that was good too.

---

How insulated and absorbed in baseball is a major league general manager?

NYC next. Terry Ryan hadn't heard of @HamiltonMusical.

"Who's Hamilton? I know Josh. I know Billy. I know Hamilton, Joe Frank & Reynolds."

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) June 23, 2016

The roster shuffle

As expected, the Twins made several moves Monday, but not all the moves they intended.

Pitcher Alex Meyer was recalled to add some depth to the bullpen, which was hard-used in Sunday's 16-inning affair. (And on Monday night, even though Tommy Milone didn't get through the fifth inning, Paul Molitor was unwilling to use Meyer. He instead ran through Trevor May, Fernando Abad, Ryan Pressly and Kevin Jepsen.)

Utility man Danny Santana was brought off the disabled list; he started in center field, hit ninth, went 1-for-3 and had no misadventures in the field.

Demoted were the two best center fielders on the roster, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. The outfielding chores will presumably be split up among Miguel Sano, Santana, Oswaldo Arcia and Eddie Rosario, with Santana and Rosario being the center field options.

This is probably the best offensive group of four outfielders the Twins can concoct out of their 40-man roster, and pretty close to the weakest defensively (Adam Brett Walker is on the 40). Any outfield with Sano and Arcia in the corners does the pitching staff no favors. Buxton has been overmatched in a majority of his at-bats, and Kepler has barely played since spring training, so there is a good argument for their demotions; I still prefer having one of them in center on a regular basis.

But at least David Murphy partially spared the Twins from themselves. The day after the Twins lost catcher John Hicks on waivers -- a move Terry Ryan said Monday was made to clear a roster spot for Murphy -- the veteran decided he would rather go home to his family, and the Twins released him Monday.

I wouldn't trade a 26-year-old optionable catcher for Murphy, but the Twins handed Hicks over to the Tigers in order to activate him. Now they have neither Hicks nor Murphy.

At least the roster isn't cluttered with a 34-year-old fading corner outfielder. If the Twins aren't going to give at-bats to Buxton and Kepler, they should at least give them to Arcia and Rosario; they might amount to something.

More moves should be expected soon. The Twins have 14 pitchers active and just 11 position players. Monday's bench was Rosario and John Ryan Murphy. That's not a sustainable situation.

But ... they can't send down Tyler Duffey (bruised right shoulder) until he's cleared to pitch, and they don't want to put him on the DL. They don't want to put Ervin Santana on the DL either. And apparently they don't want to waive Michael Tonkin (out of options), even though he has a much better chance to clear waivers than Hicks did, and they are loathe to punish Ryan O'Rourke for his impressive outing Sunday by kicking him to Rochester. They have individual reasons not to make a move with any of those four, and an overall reason why they must with at least one of them.

Outfield misadventures

Oswaldo Arcia brings his home run home Wednesday
night at Milwaukee. What he gained with his bat he
gave away with his glove defensively.

Long-time readers of this corner of cyberspace know that I believe that the quickest way to improve a bad pitching staff is to improve the outfield defense.

An outfield with both Oswaldo Arcia and Miguel Sano, I believe, is too heavy a burden for the Twins pitching staff to carry.

I recognize the tradeoff involved. Teams need to score some runs, and corner outfielders are expected to produce at the plate. That, at least, Arcia has done in his limited playing time. Sano, not so much.

On Tuesday it was Sano whiffing on a catchable ball for an error and misplaying a catchable ball at the wall for a "double" that had Ervin Santana gesturing in frustration. On Wednesday it was Arcia failing to cut off a single for an error and allowing a fly ball to land on the warning track for another "double."

Somebody has to catch the ball in the outfield and keep the pitchers in the game. The Twins can probably live with one butcher in an outfield corner. They cannot contend with two of them.

Thoughts from the home opener

Trevor Plouffe late in the game.
The fans aren't happy with 0-7; nor
are the players.

Oh and seven is no way to open a season, but that's where the Twins are,

I said during my belated KMSU appearance, recorded Monday morning because I was to be on the road at air time, that I felt better about this team's 0-6 coming into the home opener than I did about 2015's 1-5 because in 2015 the Twins were being consistently blown out in those initial games. This year only one game has been one-sided.

And that was the case again on a chilly Monday afternoon at Target Field. The Twins lost 4-1; last year's score for the home opener was 12-3. Progress, folks!

At some point you are what your record says you are. I don't believe that's the case for the Twins yet.

Other thoughts:

* Kyle Gibson wasn't particularly sharp, but he allowed just one earned run in his 5.2 innings. (The two-run fourth opened with Eduardo Escobar bouncing a routine throw past Joe Mauer for an error, and the runs scored with two outs.) With 40-degree temperatures and 100-plus pitches, I was a little surprised Gibson got as far as he did.

* I was even more surprised that Ryan Pressly went 2.1 innings. I suggested in that KMSU appearance that he might be in line to move up the bullpen ladder a notch. He didn't hurt his cause Monday. although the actual use suggests more of a long-man role than a short relief one. One of the two baserunners beat out, with the help of replay, a soft grounder to second that Brian Dozier had some trouble getting a grip on to throw.

*The Twins only struck out seven times, which is their new season low. And Eddie Rosario actually walked, which astounded me in the left-field seats.

* Miguel Sano didn't look terrible from my vantage point, which wasn't good for evaluating the right fielder.He did make an odd-looking throw to third base with a skipping motion that is, I'm sure, a remnant from his infield days. I will wager that Butch Davis, the coach responsible for the outfielders, either talked to him about that technique or will.

* My vantage point was pretty good for evaluating the left fielders. Melky Cabrera did not enjoy the Target Field sun, but he made two catches that he appeared about to misplay anyway. Meanwhile, Rosario let another ball down the left-field line elude him, which allowed a run to score in the top of the ninth off Trevor May. That's at least two such balls this year for Rosario,

* There were boos at the end of the game for 0-7; there were boos also when third base coach Gene Glynn held up Joe Mauer at third base on a short fly to center. I would have held Mauer in that situation too. No sense in risking the out for a run that still leaves you behind.

Sano in right field

Miguel Sano reaches for a fly ball in Sunday's game.
He dropped it for his first charged error of the spring.

The Monday print column highlighted the competition for the Twins reserve outfield role(s).

On Sunday, something happened that might have boosted the chances for somebody like Darin Mastroianni as opposed to somebody like Oswaldo Arcia: Miguel Sano committed an error in right field.

The big man has not be tested often during exhibition games. This was, I believe, the second time the "ugly finder" rule -- the ball will find a poor fielder -- has come into play in spring training.

I'd like to say two bad plays in three weeks isn't a terrible ratio, but it's spring training, and he's not playing every inning of every game.

Back to first principles here: The Twins are not going to make a panic "it's isn't working" move. Sano is going to be the right fielder. There are going to be misplays. He's working on it.

But Sunday's error highlights the question: Will Paul Molitor feel forced to use a more certain defensive right fielder late in close games? Obviously he'd rather keep Sano's bat in the lineup than remove him; leads can be lost without balls going to right field.

A trip to Fort Myers: Game 1's outfielders

My seat for Wednesday's Twins exhibition opener were in the right-field bleachers of JetBlue Park, home of the Boston Red Sox.

Drawing conclusions from the first game of spring training is a fool's errand, of course. Evaluating a hitter from some 500 feet away from home plate is also foolishness. Still, one can't help but note that Byung Ho Park struck out in all three of his plate appearances, while Miguel Sano walked all three of his,

If I had poor seats for watching the hitters, I had a pretty good location to watch Sano play right field. The only problem was, the ball never found him. The closest he came to touching the ball was a fly to right center that Byron Buxton gobbled up. Sano broke well on that ball, but Buxton had it easily.

The Twins started Oswaldo Arcia in left, Buxton in center and Sano in right. They left the game en masse about halfway through, and the Twins had Darrin Mastroianni in left, Danny Santana in center and Max Kepler in right. There are three center fielders in that second outfield, but none of them are close to Buxton.

Buxton fanned his first two trips, then singled home the first run of the game before giving way to Santana. I've said this before; his defensive abilities alone make Buxton the obvious choice for center field -- all the more so if Sano is going to be in one of the corners.

The defense-offense trade off

The Monday print column grapples with a seeming oxymoron: The Twins improved their defense by sending their designated hitter to the minors.

Consider the Twins' opponent this weekend. Toronto played Chris Colabello, the erstwhile Twin, in left field all three games. The Jays know this is suboptimal, but Jose Bautista has been limited to the DH role by injury. The Jays would doubtless rather have Bautista in the outfield and Colabello either at DH or first base (with Edwin Encarnacion at DH), but they are working with what they have,

Colabello's bat helped the Jays beat the Twins on Friday night; he homered in the ninth off Glen Perkins to break a tie. On Sunday, Colabello's outfielding inadequacies cost the Jays three runs in a game they lost by one.

Win by the Colabello, lose by the Colabello. Certainly the Jays calculate that Colabello's bat -- and he has hit extremely well -- makes up for his fielding. The flip side of it is that his lack of range in left field adds to the stress on their pitching staff.

The Jays lead the American League in runs scored, and it isn't close. They're also, barely, last in runs allowed. They may be inclined to believe that's all on the pitching staff. It isn't.

The outfield defense and a dead cat bounce

Oswaldo Arcia and his fly ball drop.

I encountered a co-worker -- actually my boss -- around noon Monday, and he said something about the Twins playing better now, and I replied: It might be what is known on Wall Street as a "dead cat bounce."

Saying things like that just before fiascoes like Monday night's game is part of how I got a reputation around the office for knowing something about baseball.

For a variety of reasons it was basically a radio-and-Twitter night for following the game for me. Dan Gladden really went off on Oswaldo Arcia for his dropped fly ball to open the three-run sixth inning; Gladden accused Arcia of "hot-dogging." The radio boys also surmised that the pop-up that fell in front of Jordan Schafer did so because Schafer called off Brian Dozier. Corey Provus recalled Terry Ryan saying this spring that the outfield defense wasn't that bad, and then said it has to be a concern. (Provus also mentioned the infield defense.)

There are a lot of things that ought to be a concern.

Kyle Gibson had a "Nick Blackburn start" -- no strikeouts in five-plus innings. This gives him a total of three strikeouts in three starts this year. His strikeout rate had been going up near the end of last season, and there was hope this spring that the change-up he was working on would garner some swings-and-misses. Not happening so far.

Blaine Boyer had a deceptively good line score with two hitless innings, But his wild pitch ultimately allowed two inherited runners to score. And Caleb Thielbar and Tim Stauffer combined for a crooked number in the eighth to put the game out of reach. The bullpen behind Glen Perkins and Casey Fien is simply not reliable.

And while batting average is hardly the be-all measure of offense it was reckoned to be 40 years ago, Monday's lineup featured five starters who ended the game under the Mendoza line. That's not going to work.

The Twins clown show performance

The ball, the wall, the center fielder and a triple. This
is from Monday's game, but it summarizes the outfield play
in the Twins first two games of the season.

Had the Twins tried to embarrass themselves Wednesday, they could hardly have done a better job.

Ricky Nolasco, fresh off an encouraging spring training, was awful. The outfield repeatedly turned base hits into extra bases. And the hitters have not only been shut out for the season to date, they have yet to get a man to third base.

David Price and Anibel Sanchez have had something to do with that latter problem, certainly. They had nothing to do with the outfield misplays.

Wednesday illustrated the ever-increasing lack of credibility by the FSN broadcasters. Torii Hunter made a nice catch on the warning track, and Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven couldn't stop raving about the play. An inning or so later, Hunter turned a base hit to right center into a triple, and it was just crickets from the voices in the booth.

Hunter is the focus of a ticket-selling campaign -- a "Torii Territory" promo airs with regularity on FSN these days -- and as such never is heard a discouraging word. We viewers and listeners will do well to remember: Dick-n-Bert are selected and paid by the Twins. They are the organization's house organ. When Blyleven ripped Kevin Slowey a few years ago, it was a sure sign Slowey was in the team's doghouse.

Not that Hunter was the only culprit Wednesday. For the second game -- and Twins have only played two -- Jordan Schafer misplayed a ball into three bases. On Monday it was ruled a triple; on Wednesday Schafer was charged with an error. And that wasn't his only misplay Wednesday.

Things will get better. The Twins will eventually score a run; they'll even win some games. But man, they do not look anywhere near as good as they seem to think they are.

"... out of the reach of an outstretched Torii Hunter"

From Wednesday's exhibition game, Twins vs Rays:

Trevor May gives up a triple to Alexi Casilla to open the fifth. Just out of the reach of an outstretched Torii Hunter in RF.
— Rhett Bollinger (@RhettBollinger) March 11, 2015

I suspect we'll be seeing and hearing a lot of that second sentence this year.

To be sure, that sentence is open to interpretation. I bring my expectations to it, you bring yours. I am quite certain that Hunter's range isn't good any more, a belief I hold in large part because of the defensive metrics; at least one of my readers thinks I'm nuts to put any weight on the objective measurements. He and I are never going to convince each other, and I'm fine with that. I didn't see this play, and I haven't seen or heard anybody describe it in detail.

Maybe it was a ball that reasonably should have been caught but Hunter couldn't get there. Maybe it wasn't catchable. Maybe Hunter came closer to it than right field predecessor Oswaldo Arcia would have -- which isn't necessarily saying much. I don't know.

I expect that there will be an above-average number of extra-base hits against the Twins outfield (at least until Byron Buxton is installed in center). Some will say that's on the pitchers. I think the outfielders will share a big part of the blame. Arcia, by either the metrics or the eye test, is a poor outfielder; Hunter, by the metrics, is now worse than Arcia; and none of the likely center fielders is good enough to make up the difference.

At the margins

Commenter Jim H writes of yesterday's post:

Defensive metrics are often very misleading especially at the margins. There are of important defensive attributes that either not measured by defensive metrics or not measured very well by them. Throwing, positioning, taking good routes, just making the plays you should make, are all things Hunter can still do.  Playing half of his games in a park that doesn't require great range will help as well.

Which is, simply, wrong. Let's take those four sentences in reverse.

Playing half of his games in a park that doesn't require great range will help as well.

Target Field is one of the more spacious outfields in the majors, particularly in the gaps. It does demand range from the corner outfielders.

Throwing, positioning, taking good routes, just making the plays you should make, are all things Hunter can still do.

If he is still doing them, where are the plays? They are going unmade. That's the conclusion of plus-minus (Hunter was -28 in 2014, -38 for 2012-14); of runs saved (-18 in 2014, -13 for 2012-14); of total zone fielding runs (-17 in 2014, -22 for 2014-14); ultimate zone rating (-18.3 in 2014, -11.2 for 2012-14) ... all different systems, all coming to the same conclusion. He's bad, and he's getting worse. 

There are of important defensive attributes that either not measured by defensive metrics or not measured very well by them.

If he's positioning himself better than other right fielders, he's still not making the plays. If he's throwing better than other right fielders, he's still not nailing base runners or making them hold their base. These are things the metrics include, perhaps imperfectly, but more accurately and objectively than the eyetest.

Defensive metrics are often very misleading especially at the margins. 

If Jim H is talking about playing time margins, he's right on one end (the lack of playing time, as exampled in Thursday's post by Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar.) The more playing time, the more accurate the metrics figure to be. That's the playing time margin Hunter occupies.

If he's talking about the best and the worst rating, he's just wrong. That's where the action is.

There is a margin of error in all this. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, that the margin of error is three runs per 1,200 innings. A dead-average outfielder scores at 0. So he might be as good as +3, he might be as poor as -3, but he's in the middle.

Hunter's not there. Hunter's at -18. Maybe that overstates how bad he is by 3 runs. So he's minus 15 instead, Big whoop. He's still awful. There's just as good a change that he's really minus 21, which is even worse.

Hunter's metrics are, or should be, compelling precisely because he's on the outer edge.

Twins by position: Right field

Torri Hunter's hitting improved
after he left the Twins as a free agent
after the 2007 season. 

The most irritating aspect of the Twins offseason is the blithe assertion that Torii Hunter remains a good defensive outfielder.

Hunter, of course, was a perennial Gold Glove center fielder in his first go-around with the Twins. Now he's 39 and has played strictly right field since 2011, when he was with the Angels. The Twins will move Oswaldo Arcia to left to make room for the veteran.

Both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor, during the press conference at which they paraded the signing, dismissed the defensive metrics that rank Hunter at the very bottom of regular outfielders. And they did so in a manner that suggests that they don't get it.

I am not claiming that the new-age measurements of defensive range and effectiveness are perfect. They aren't. But the flaws in the various systems are, if anything, minimized in the case of Hunter.

The metrics won't tell us much about the Twins shortstop contenders. The most devoted adherents of the metrics say the numbers need time -- three years of regular play. Neither Eduardo Escobar nor Danny Santana have enough time to make the numbers meaningful as an evaluation tool. In their cases, the eyeball test remains necessary.

Hunter is a different case. He has had three years of regular play -- three years of steadily declining proficiency. In 2012, (this is Baseball Info System's runs saved measurement) he was four runs to the good; in 2013, he gave away nine runs; last season, he was 17 runs worse than the average right fielder.

Ryan and Molitor don't care what the numbers say. We watched him play 30 or so games, the new manager said at the press conference, and he made the plays.

What the new manager is saying, in effect, is: We trust our subjective judgement in a fraction of the games more than an objective measurement over the full season. That makes little sense to me.

Nor does Ryan's insistence that the Twins outfield defense last year was acceptable or even good. It wasn't. The objective numbers tell us that, of course, but so did the eyeball test. It makes me wonder if the Twins have gone so long playing slow and awkward corner outfielders -- Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee, Arcia, Chris Colabello -- that they've lost track of what a good corner outfielder looks like.

Outfield defense was, emphatically, part of the problem last year (and the year before that). The day is long past when Hunter could repair that. He may not look as misplaced in the field as Willingham did, but he will still be part of the problem.

And the problem won't be solved until the general manager and manager acknowledge that there's a problem.

A difficult sell

This tweet floated across my timeline Tuesday morning and made me laugh.

The #MNTwins are being sold on FA OF Tony Gwynn Jr's defense. He's seeking a 2015 job. So far no Twins interest expressed.
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) February 3, 2015

Of course there was no interest expressed by the Twins. Pitching an outfielder to them on the basis that they need outfield gloves? The Twins, at least for public consumption, profess to believe that

• Their 2014 outfield defense wasn't bad and
• Torii Hunter is still a good outfielder.

Neither belief is backed by objective evidence, of course. The objective evidence says that the Twins had the worst defensive outfield in the majors and that Hunter was the worst regular outfielder in the majors.

The first step in solving a problem is admitting that you have a problem. The Twins aren't there yet.

Even if they were there, Tony Gwynn Jr. isn't a reasonable solution, He gives them nothing they can't/won't get from Jordan Schafer, Aaron Hicks and Shane Robinson. He's a backup outfielder, a glove and legs who can't hit well enough to be a 140-game starter.

The Twins and Torii Hunter

There's enough smoke about a Twins-Torii Hunter reunion to make it definite that something is smouldering. Whether there's an actual fire is another matter.

This week's smoke signals have included a Charlie Walters (Pioneer Press) report that Hunter favors the Twins among his current suitors and Minnesota general manager Terry Ryan expounding to Sirus XM's MLB Network Radio on his desire to add a right-handed bat with experience to the outfield.

Sounds like a match.

But it hasn't happened yet, and Hunter's free agent history has been that when he has an offer he likes, he takes it. At this point in his previous forays into free agency, he's been signed already.

Hunter has a well-established knack for telling reporters what he thinks they want to hear. A Minnesota columnist asking about a reunion with the Twins? Sure, I'd love to return.

As I've said before, there are good reasons for Hunter to prefer a different team, one more ready to win now than the Twins are. Hunter is 39, and while he has aged remarkably well, time is undefeated. Hunter has yet to play in a World Series. Mike Berardino has suggested that the Twins aren't offering the money Hunter wants; I suspect Hunter will need a premium to abandon his quest for a ring in 2015.

All of which adds up to Hunter playing a waiting game.

And the Twins, I'm convinced, are overly interested in Hunter. Ryan says he wants "experience" and a right-handed hitter. I think he's got the wrong priorities.

Experience? I want the Twins to embrace the youth. I don't want a $10 million-a-year relic of glory days past getting in the way of glory days future. It may be that neither Eddie Rosario nor Byron Buxton should be in the majors in April or even June, but that should be a possibility.

Ryan says the Twins are overly left-handed in the outfield. I'm not used to hearing any concern from this organization about such issues in the past -- this is a team that embraced having a string of left-handed hitters in the top and middle of the lineup under Ron Gardenhire. Makes me wonder if new manager Paul Molitor is more concerned about the platoon advantage than Gardy was.

Set that speculation aside for now. One outfield spot is filled: Oswaldo Arcia in right. (Berardino has tweeted that should the Twins sign Hunter, Arcia will be moved to left so Hunter can play right; that would also be a mistake, albeit a lesser one than signing Hunter period.) Center and left field are open.

Leaving Rosario and Buxton out of the equation, the incumbent candidates are a pair of left-handed hitters (Jordan Schafer and Chris Parmelee) and a switch-hitter who's better right-handed (Aaron Hicks).

There's Danny Santana too, a switch hitter, but the indications are that he's going to be at shortstop. That's another decision, if true, that I'm not thrilled with.

The Twins could go with an outfield of Arcia, Santana and a timeshare of Hicks and Schafer. Against a right-handed starter, that would give them three lefty hitters, which shouldn't be a problem; against a lefty, they could have two right-handed sticks in the outfield by playing Santana and Hicks. That foursome might not provide great offense -- neither Hicks nor Schafer have impressive track records -- but either of them plus Santana should be able to cover some ground in the field, and that matters.

Let's be emphatic about this: If the Twins sign Hunter and pair him in the corner outfield with Arcia, it probably won't matter what moves the Twins make with the pitching staff. They will give up a lot of runs just on the lack of range in the outfield.

Pursuing pitching is the wrong priority

Here's the conventional wisdom about the Twins: The pitching's the problem.

And a cursory look at the stats supports that claim. The Twins had a team ERA in 2014 of 4.57, which was last in the American League and almost three-quarters of a run per game worse than the AL average. The Twins were, on the other hand, fifth in runs scored.

It's the pitching, stupid. And so there is speculation of signing free-agent starters (a la last winter's $73 million spree, which brought the Twins one very good season and two injury-plagued/awful seasons).

Here's a unconventional view: That's the wrong priority.

Fix the defense, and the pitchers already in place will look a whole lot better.

One of my foundation beliefs about the game: The easiest way to improve a pitching staff is to get better defensive outfielders.

And it really shouldn't be that difficult to improve the Twins outfield defense. They spent much of 2014 with Josh Willingham or Jason Kubel in left field, Oswaldo Arcia or Chris Colabello in right and a shortstop (Danny Santana) in center.

By Baseball Info System's DRS metric -- DRS meaning "defensive runs saved" -- the Twins were next to last in all of baseball. Only Cleveland's fielders gave more runs to the opposition.

The Twins team DRS was -67, meaning they were 67 runs worse than MLB average. Most of that is traced to the corner outfielders. Left field was -25, right field was -23. (The pitchers and catchers were also notable problems; the pitchers were -13, the catchers -10. Those four positions account for -71 runs, so the other five combined scored a bit better than average.)

TheTwins gave up 777 runs last season, Give them league average defense, at least by DRS, and that drops to 710 -- still worse than average, but fewer than they scored themselves.

It's only mid November, but the Twins outfield plan for 2015 is pretty vague.

We know Arcia will be the right fielder. That probably means subpar defense in that corner again.

Center field and left field are wide open. Aaron Hicks, Jordan Schafer and Chris Parmelee are on hand from last season, but I have to doubt the Twins intend to base their outfield on those guys. Santana ... new manager Paul Molitor sounds like he wants to focus Santana there. It doesn't make sense to me -- Santana has always been a dicey defensive shortstop in the minors, and with Eduardo Escobar coming off a strong season, the Twins would be "fixing" a problem that doesn't really exist.

Which is very much, again, like plunging back into the free agent market to sign a raft of veteran starters. Better to jettison one or two of the incumbent starters and give Alex Meyer or Trevor May rotation berths, not add more big salary guys to block their ascent.

And better to focus on getting outfielders who can run and throw, be they Santana, Eddie Rosario or somebody from the outside.

A night at Target Field

Jordan Schafer turned the wrong way
on this first-inning double over his head
Monday night. 

Monday night's game provided a strong reminder of one of my favorite precepts about baseball: The easiest way to improve the pitching is to improve the outfield defense.

Anthony Swarzak, making a spot start, wasn't really as bad as his line -- 11 hits in 4.1 innings -- indicates. My scoresheet was dotted with notations of outfield plays unmade and resulting runs .

Jordan Schafer, playing centerfield, got turned around on a ball hit by Victor Martinez in the first inning. If Schafer makes the play the Tigers get nothing; in reality, V-Mart's double scored one run and set up his own on J.D. Martinez' subsequent hit.

The latter Martinez opened the three-run fourth inning with a double that Oswaldo Arcia misjudged in right field. That could, should, have been caught.

I didn't mark any poor plays by left fielder Chris Parmelee, but Dan Gladden suggested on the postgame show that there was a play (or more) that the first-base transplant should have made. Presumably Gladden was talking about Bryan Holaday's RBI double in the fourth and/or Victor Martinez' double in the fifth.

I will give Parmelee credit for a good throw to the plate to cut down V-Mart to end that fifth inning. Martinez isn't fast by any means, but Parmelee had to make an accurate throw to get him on Holaday's fly ball, and he made the play.

Other notes from what I expect will be my final in-person game of 2014:

* Danny Santana started at shortstop, as he did in my previous trip to Target Field 10 days earlier. On Sept. 5 he missed on what I thought was a double play opportunity; on Sept. 15 he had a similar chance (second inning off the bat of Ian Kinsler) and started the twin killing. He also had a well-turned pivot on a flashy DP started by Brian Dozier's diving play and flip with glove hand; that flip was a little behind Santana, but he handled the exchange fluidly.

I've been, and remain, skeptical of Santana's ability to handle shortstop, but those were nicely done plays.

* Swarzak, as implied by the previous paragraph, was helped by his infielders, perhaps as much as he was hurt by his outfielders. Give him credit for this: He threw strikes -- 14 first-pitch strikes to his 23 hitters faced, 47 strikes in 70 pitches, just one walk and that intentional.

* A.J. Achter, on the other hand, got through his 2.1 innings without being charged with a run, but threw almost as many balls (17) as strikes (19). He walked home one of Swarzak's inherited runners, a run set up by the intentional walk to J.D. Martinez.. Achter and Ryan Pressly kept the Tigers off the board in the sixth-through-eighth innings, but it wasn't pretty, at least on Achter's part.

* Miguel Cabrera is a beast. The man's leg is clearly killing him, but he had three hits for seven total bases and three runs scored. The way he stared out at the outfield after his first-inning double off the limestone overhang suggested that he couldn't believe that didn't get out of the park.

The Twins outfield mess

Chris Parmelee heads back to the dugout Sunday
after another strikeout, one of four from the Twins
outfielders for the game.

Ron Gardenhire on Sunday deployed an outfield of infielders — two shortstops and a first baseman — all of whom opened the season in the minors. Eduardo Nunez, Danny Santana and Chris Parmelee combined to go 2-for-10 at the plate and make a hash of several catchable flyballs.

It was just another day in the continuing disaster that has been the Minnesota outfield, which has been rangeless and mistake-prone in the field and punchless at the plate.

Today the Twins get back their "regular" corner outfielders, Josh Willingham and Oswaldo Arcia.

Willingham and Arcia aren't a defensive upgrade, but at least they figure to hit. Minnesota's outfielders have been abysmal at bat, a truth that has been largely overlooked amid the well-based complaints about the slipshod fielding.

According to Baseball Reference on Sunday evening, the average American League outfielder has a slash line of .255/.322/.395, an OPS — On-base Plus Slugging — of .717. (This is referring to players who are playing left, right or center; it would include, for example, Chris Colabello's at-bats as a right fielder but not his at-bats as a first baseman.)

The Twins' outfield slash line: .214/.301/.298, OPS .599.

The Twins' left fielders (mostly Jason Kubel) entered Sunday hitting .250/.340/.331 — a solid on-base percentage, but little power. The AL left field average is .262/.327/.416.

The Twins' center fielders (mostly Aaron Hicks) were hitting .190/.306/.225. There's no way to find a positive in that slash line. The AL average: .251/.326/.379.

The Twins' right fielders (Colabello with the most PT in a very divided field) were hitting .202/.260/.303. That's almost as bad as the center fielders. The AL average: .253/.314/.391.

The outfield production has been so bad that all three positions have a lower OPS than shortstop (.678) — and shortstop for much the season was Pedro Florimon making outs.

---

Colabello and Chris Herrmann were optioned out to make roster space for Arcia and Willingham. The Herrmann demotion led to this tweet from the Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino:

Gardy said Chris Herrmann will play center field in games this time for @RocRedWings. Herrmann asked if he's still a catcher. He is.
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) May 25, 2014

Great. Playing shortstops in center hasn't worked, so let's try a catcher.

It's easy for me to excuse Herrmann's confusion. He's spent most of the season so far on the big league roster but he hasn't had even an inning behind the plate. And now he's going to spend time in center field.

Late night Twins game: Oakland 11, Twins 0

Oswaldo Arcia after his first-inning strikeout
Friday. He had two of the Twins' 13 strikeouts.

Game story here

Box score here

An 11-0 final score makes it pretty obvious that the losing team didn't do anything well enough to win, and that was certainly the case Friday night for the Twins.

They didn't hit well, they didn't pitch well, and they sure didn't field well. The Twins were charged with four errors, and anybody watching Oswaldo Arcia flounder in right field in the third inning knows that was an understatement.

Arcia lost one ball in the lights — it was ruled a double — and let another ball get past him for a two-base error in that inning as the A's scored their first three runs.

After his error, I tweeted:

I'm starting to wonder if Arcia might not be the worst defensive Twins outfielder of my times.
— Edward Thoma (@bboutsider) September 21, 2013

That may have drawn the most response of any tweet in my admittedly skimpy tweeting career. The consensus: He's not a good outfielder, but Josh Willingham or Delmon Young are worse.

It's arguable, but all three are brutal. According to Baseball Info System's plus-minus and runs saved defensive metrics for this season:

• Willingham (599 innings in left field) is -14 in plus-minus, -8 in runs saved. 
• Arcia  (696 innings in left and right) is -23 and -13 combined.
• Young (503 innings in right for the Phillies and Rays) is -19, -11. 

Plus I've never seen either Willingham or Young get hit in the head by a fly ball as Arcia did earlier in the season.

Judging the defense

When Ryan Doumit
is in the outfield,
it's not for his
defensive skills.

In the final innings of Monday night's overly-long extra inning game in Boston, the Twins outfield had Ryan Doumit in left, Wilkin Ramirez in center and Chris Parmelee in right. This is not the Jamaican relay team when it comes to speed, and there were observers who wondered if Stephen Drew's game-winning double could have been caught by a genuine left fielder.

Ron Gardenhire, hewing to the philosophy that one doesn't blame the player when the manager puts him in a position outside his skill set, avoided criticizing Doumit: I had my backup catcher out there.

It occurred to me that Parmelee -- whose best position is probably first base -- might be the most accomplished outfielder of that trio. So this morning I dug into the plus/minus and runs saved defensive metrics devised and compiled by Baseball Info Systems.

Please note: BIS itself says the metrics are best applied over years, not weeks. This is early May. So the numbers don't necessarily define individual skills.

A few highlights:

Parmelee is a bit below average in right, but not so much that he can be said to be hurting the team defensively. As of Wednesday morning he was listed at -4 in plus/minus but zero in runs saved. He's been better than I expected, but I wasn't expecting Dwight Evans from him either.

The best defensive player on the team has been Brian Dozier, +6 in plus/minus and 4 in runs saved at second base. Next best: shortstop Pedro Florimon, +4 and 2. The worst: Ramirez is a combined -6, -4 in just 48 innings around the outfield.

Doumit has just three innings in left field, all on Monday; he grades out at -2, -1 in left. So, yeah, it appears that the BIS grading system figures Drew's ball was catchable.

For love of the glove: Denard Span, center fielder

Denard Span may be the best
defensive center fielder among the
American League's regulars, but
some of the part-timers have been
even better.

Earlier this week, I posted about what the metrics tell us about Ben Revere as a right fielder. There is no shortage of fans who believe that Revere ought to be the Twins center fielder, with Denard Span playing right field. Ron Gardenhire is obviously not among that crowd.

What about Span as a center fielder?

Turning again to the Baseball Info Systems' plus-minus and runs saved analytical stats:

Span is +13 in plus-minus, +9 in runs saved.

Good numbers, but not the best in the American League. The best numbers:

• Texas: Craig Gentry, who has about half the Rangers' innings, is +13, +9.
• Anaheim: Mike Trout, with less than half the Angels' innings, is +18, +10 -- and Peter Bourjos, who has 32 more innings in center than Trout and a little more than half of Span's time, is +9, +6.
• Toronto: Colby Rasmus is +11, +7. He's a bit shy of Span's numbers, and the only full-time center fielder in his class.

Trout was called up last month and is only leaving the Angels lineup if he gets crippled. I figure Gentry isn't a regular because his bat is perceived as a bit weak, although you can't really prove it by his limited major league playing time (334 career plate appearances, career slash line .285/.355/.356, with most of that production coming this season).

Span is a contender for best defensive CF in the league. Revere probably would be too if he were a full-time center fielder. But the Anaheim duo, at least by these measurements, is better still.

At any rate, I don't think the Twins are hurting themselves with the Span-in-center, Revere-in-right alignment.