Ex-Twins watch: Bullpen guys

When the Nationals decided that Brandon Kintzler was a snitch and had to be eradicated from their "dysfunctional" clubhouse (see my overly-long Tuesday post) , they traded the right-hander to a better situation. He's now with the Chicago Cubs.

Where, in his first six games, he has pitched four innings and walked five hitters.  OK, one was intentional and four innings is a small sample size, but still ... that's not good. It's also not the Brandon Kintzler we saw with the Twins. I think he's going to be fine.

The Cubs made room for Kintzler on their roster by demoting another former Twin, Randy Rosario. The young lefty has an ERA of 3.00, but he too has had trouble with the free pass, with 19 walks in 33 innings. One might want to rap the Cubs for demoting that ERA, but all those walks are a problem. He's also allowed five homes in those 33 innings, so the ERA is pretty much a mirage.

The Cubs picked up Rosario on a waiver claim during the winter, the Twins having decided that they didn't have room on their 40-man roster for him. Similarly, the Twins lost J.T. Chagrois on waivers to the Dodgers early in spring training.

Chagrois was been up and down with the Dodgers -- 37 K's in 30.1 innings and an ERA of 3.56. The Dodgers bullpen is a mess right now; closer Kenley Jansen is out after another bout of irregular heartbeat (this seems to come when he pitches in Colorado), and nothing is working out there for Dave Roberts.

The Dodgers lost Tuesday's game on a ninth-inning homer. It was their fourth straight game in which the bullpen gave up the winning run in the final inning, fifth straight game in which the bullpen took the loss. Chagrois has been part of that problem.

Experiencing Fernando Rodney

The Twins got the not-so-good Fernando Rodney Experience on Thursday. The Twins closer hit one batter and walked two, the second with the bases loaded, to blow a save opp. The Twins eventually prevailed in 13 innings anyway, but Rodney's loss of command stressed his bullpen mates and leaves the relief corps wearied going forward.

That said, Rodney has been impressively good since April's chronic uncertainty. His ERA remains below 3, which didn't seem possible two months ago (his ERA entering May was 5.87).

It is a major oversimplification to depict the Twins' offseason closer decision as a binary one of Rodney or Brandon Kintzler; there was a wide range of options available to the Minnesota front office, some more practical than others.

Kintzler took a slightly richer deal to be a setup man with Washington than the 41-year-old Rodney accepted with the Twins. At the time, I thought, and wrote, that the Twins would have been better off bringing back Kintzler.

As June nears its conclusion, it appears that I was wrong. Kintzler's walk rate has almost doubled this year. Rodney, who carries a merited reputation for lack of command, actually has a superior BB/9 rate this season. Kintzler's ERA is pushing 4.50.

To be fair, Kintzler's FIP -- fielding independent pitching -- suggests that he is actually pitching almost exactly as well this year as last. FIP says he didn't fully merit his 3.03 cumulative ERA in 2017 and is doing better than his 4.45 this season.

But Rodney is getting better results than Kintzler. I didn't see that coming.

Watching an #OldFriend

Brandon Kintzler is something of a "the one that got away" for me, and it's a bit strange because I am fully aware of his limitations as a pitcher.

I don't know that the Twins front office prefers Fernando Rodney to him, but I believe they do. Rodney has the better strikeout rate, and that, sabermetrically, is more important in 2010s baseball than Kintzler's lower walk rate. I still prefer Kintzler to Rodney, myself.

Anyway, the Twins signed Rodney and the Nationals signed Kintzler, and Rodney has the ninth inning in Minnesota and Kintzler is a setup guy in Washington, and presumably everybody's happy except the blogger in Mankato.

Late Sunday night I was watching the Mets and Nats go extra innings on a cold night in D.C., and in comes Kintzler for the top of the 11th.  The ESPN crew said that Washington had hoped not to use Kintzler Sunday; he had pitched the day before and twice in three days and been roughed up both times.

And he took the loss Sunday. A bloop hit, a sac bunt, an intentional walk and a broken bat single plated the go-head run for New York. Then he got the ground ball and the double play, but the Nats couldn't tie it in the bottom of the inning.

What I saw, in short, was the Brandon Kintzler we saw with the Twins. Everybody made contact, nobody hit the ball hard, and the breaks went against him. It happens.

Brandon Kintzler, free agent

Brandon Kinzler
pitched in three
games in the NLDS
with an ERA of
5.40.

I suggested Thursday in my final KMSU segment of the season that the Twins might focus more on building their bullpen depth this winter than on the starting rotation.

That thought might have been overly influenced by the bullpen-crazy postseason so far, but there is, or should be, little doubt that a lot of the teams playing in October were capable of smothering the opposition with waves of quality relievers -- Indians, Yankees, post-deadline Nats, Rockies.

The Twins were never in that position. Paul Molitor spent pretty much the entire season with three relievers he trusted and four he didn't -- and the identity of the ones he trusted shifted frequently.

Molitor trusted Brandon Kintzler right up to when Kintzler was traded at the deadline. And with the Washington Nationals eliminated, Kintzler becomes a free agent.

Dusty Baker handled Kintzler more roughly than Molitor did. Kintzler made 45 appearances for the Twins in four months, mostly to protect leads at the end of games. Kintzler made 27 appearances for the Nationals in two months, mostly in the seventh and eighth innings. He had 10 holds and one save -- and two blown saves -- for Baker.

The ERA was more than a half-run higher in Washington, but the underlying stats weren't a lot different. He was essentially the same pitcher, just used differently. Low strikeout rate, lower walk rate, challenge the hitters to do something with well-located pitches with movement.

Kintzler turned 33 on Aug. 1, so he's no youngster. The analytics don't like his strikeout rate. Bur I will wager Molitor would like him back, and the price is unlikely to be a deterrent. There may not be another organization that would seriously view Kintzler as a closer candidate.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would be justified in wondering: If we sign Kintzler, will his presence discourage Molitor from using a higher-ceiling pitcher? Probably, if we're only concerned about the closer role. But the 2017 Twins were short all season on reliable relief arms. Kintzler may be low ceiling, but he's also high floor. Ninth inning or seventh inning, he can help.

Good-bye, Kintzler

The Twins traded Brandon Kintzler to the Washington Nationals in the final hour before the trading deadline Monday. It was a rational move, but that doesn't mean I have to like it, and I don't.

It really wasn't any more of a "white flag" trade than the Jaime Garcia trade Sunday, but it feels more like it. Garcia's departure still leaves the Twins with their three best starters this year and with the rotation plan for the future intact; with Kintzler gone and Taylor Rogers suddenly addicted to the gopher ball, I have no idea how Molitor is going to find outs late in games.

Molitor's bullpen handling is a topic for other posts and columns; today I mourn Kintzler's departure, which is something I could not have imagined 18 months ago. He was a minor league free agent when I first saw him pitch, in spring training 2016; he leaves as an All-Star.

But ...he's 32, his strikeout rate is bizarrely low for a pitcher of his effectiveness, he's a free agent to be, and it's a good guess that "Falvine" isn't interested in committing to him as the back end of the bullpen in the future. So they cashed him in for a Class A lefty named Tyler Watson.

Watson is 20 and he has put up truly impressive walk and strikeout rates at Low-A Hagerstown (South Atlantic League). He is said to have an advanced changeup and breaking ball but is a bit light on velocity. The Twins presumably think/hope he can add some power to his repertoire as he matures (listed at 6-5, 200 pounds).

All that is well and good, but the return seems too light for what Kintzler means to the current team. We've had four months of playoff aspirations with this team; despite the debacles of the past week, I'm not emotionally ready to relinquish those ambitions.

Notes, quotes and comment

Friday was quite the busy day in Twinsdom. Let's get chronologic:

* Joe Mauer went on the disabled list with Kennys Vargas recalled. The Twins demoted Vargas on Monday to reactivate Ehire Adrianza. Mauer injured his back on Tuesday, and the Twins dawdled a couple of days before pulling the trigger, presumably (as I noted Thursday) because Vargas hasn't given them a lot of reason to get excited about playing him.

So naturally Vargas went 3-for-4 with a double and a couple RBIs.

*Brandon Kintzler was one of a handful of replacement All-Stars named Friday, and good for him. That gives the Twins three members of the AL squad: Miguel Sano, Ervin Santana and Kintzler.

Kintzler currently leads the American League in saves, which

• is meaningless as an evaluative stat and
• made his selection almost inevitable.

* The Twins signed Bartolo Colon to a minor league deal.

Colon became an unlikely cult hero in his three years with the Mets; he's old (44), fat (listed at 285 pounds) and amusingly inept at the plate. But the Braves released him after he put up an 8.18 ERA in 13 starts.

colon will start at triple-a rochester with twins. but plan is to get him up asap

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 8, 2017

I'm not optimistic about Colon. But I'm not optimistic about the rotation "fixes" on hand either. Derek Falvey told the press corps during the game that Colon thinks he can correct himself and pitch beyond this season, and noted (accurately) that Colon has reinvented himself as a pitcher a few times. So we'll see; the Twins have a minimal investment in "Big Sexy," so all they have to lose are a couple of games.

* Felix Jorge started, got shelled, got demoted (that last, as least, as predicted here).

Roy Smalley drew a Johan Santana comp to Jorge early in the game on FSN, which is ridiculous. Santana is left-handed and threw harder than Jorge. A more realistic comp, at least in terms of what kind of pitcher Jorge might become, is Brad Radke -- a fastball that sits around 90, a good change-up, top-notch command of both pitches.

And, hey, if Jorge becomes Radke, that's marvelous. He's not there yet. He has no chance of becoming Santana. And the signing of Colon, plus the presence in Rochester of Dillon Gee (opt-out date July 15), plus Friday's failed outing  -- that all adds up to he's not getting another shot at the majors anytime soon. Jorge is returning to Chattanooga, and I would expect to see him back in September but not before.

* Outfielder Zack Granite was recalled. He's hitting .360 in Rochester, which is good. He's drawn about as many walks in Rochester as Eddie Rosario has in Minnesota, which is less good, and has far less power.

The gaudy batting average not withstanding, Granite is a fringe prospect, a protoypical fourth outfielder -- left-handed contact hitter, fast enough to play center, not enough pop to be a regular. And as a lefty bat, he's not a particularly good fit as a backup in an outfield with Rosario and Max Kepler among the regulars.

Granite is, at best, Ben Revere with a better arm.

My prediction: He won't be up long.

*Byron Buxton scored from first base on a single to center. Wowzers.

Anybody who thinks Granite should get Buck's playing time is deluded. Baseball Reference, at this writing, has Buxton as the third-most valuable player on the 2017 Twins with 1.8 WAR, behind Ervin Santana and Kepler and fractionally ahead of Sano.

A bullpen overview

The Twins caravan swung through Mankato on Monday night. Theoretically I could have gone -- Monday is one of my nights off -- but it wasn't really on my radar screen to begin with, and when I tried to walk the dog around 5 p.m. and found the driveway and sidewalk ice-coated from the drizzle, all notion of leaving the house was abandoned.

But about 300 people did show up, including the Free Press' free-lancer Denny Weller, who produced this report.

The players on this leg of the annual promotional journey were relievers Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly, who emerged during the sorry 2016 season as the bullpen arms Paul Molitor most trusted -- which is not to say that they were truly good. Each was, as it turned out, arbitration eligible this year, and each got a nice raise for their veteranness.

We don't know when or to what level Glen Perkins will return from his shoulder surgery. I'm a Perkins fan. as evidenced by my repeated sponsorship of his Baseball Reference page, but I'm not optimistic about his future. Shoulder surgeries are inherently career-threatening, and on the range of outcomes, a return as the 97-mph flamethrower he once was is probably the least likely.

If Perkins is back, that's great and wonderful. But the Twins should wait to see it before they count on him.

And what does a non-Perkins bullpen look like? Presuming Trevor May is in the rotation, this would be a likely outline of six pitchers and roles, at least to open:

Closer: Kintzler
Setup 1: Pressly
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Taylor Rogers
MR 1: J.T. Chargois
LOOGY 2: Ryan O'Rourke
Long man: Michael Tonkin

I'm not impressed, and you shouldn't be either.

To be sure, there are plenty of contenders for the last four roles, and I doubt that these precise six will all go north for the opener. I hope there will be a genuine long man, not Tonkin's masquarade. But Kintzler and Pressly, with their squatter's rights, will go to Fort Myers penciled into the top two slots. (It's also quite possible tha the Twins will open with a 12-man staff, not the 11 this implies, but they aren't winning or losing games on their 12th pitcher, or shouldn't be.)

Contemplating Brandon Kintzler

Brandon Kintzler has
passed the released
Kevin Jepsen for the
team lead in saves.

Brandon Kintzler blew his first save op of the season Saturday, which was also the third straight game in which he pitched. Ryan Pressly got the save Sunday.

There are other internet know-it-alls who say the Twins should trade Kintzler today. This internet know-it-all won't go that far, because I don't know what the market is for him. The case for peddling him can also be the case for other teams to avoid picking him up.

Let's examine the case for moving -- and retaining -- the Twins' surprise closer.

Trade him 

The Twins don't have much invested in him; he was a minor league free agent. While he has converted eight of his nine save opportunities and sports a 2.14 ERA, his underlying numbers aren't that impressive: only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.79, suggesting that his ERA strongly overstates his effectiveness.

Keep him

He's clearly the reliever Paul Molitor most trusts. While Kintzler's not missing bats, he's also not walking hitters either; he's struck out seven hitters for every walk issued. And he's still under team control for next year, so even if Glen Perkins reclaims the glory job next spring or one of the young power arms emerges, he can be a piece of the future bullpen.

Conclusion

The "sell high" notion really only applies if at least one buyer puts a great deal of importance on the save stat in evaluating relief pitchers. I believe that while saves matter to managers, general managers today aren't getting wound up in that number. And even those who are inclined to think there's something different and magical about getting ninth-inning outs aren't likely to overpay for a guy with eight saves in his career.

I won't be disappointed if Rob Antony keeps Kintzler, and I won't be riled if Antony trades him for a prospect. I certainly don't think Kintzler should be given away, and I don't think he will be.

Brandon Kintzler, closer -- and other bullpen notes

So ... Wednesday's game was tied after eight innings, and when the Twins were hitting in the top of the ninth, Fernando Abad started warming up. Then Max Kepler homered -- and Abad sat down and Brandon Kintzler started to loosen.

Why? Obviously, because it was now a save situation -- and Brandon Kintzler, with or without a public declaration from manager Paul Molitor, is now the closer. This was, really, a more decisive announcement than saying something to the beat writers. Managers frequently say one thing and do something else. This action spoke loudly.

Abad got a save shortly after Kevin Jepsen, now departed, was removed from the glory job, but the bulk of the save opportunities have gone to Kintzler, and he's done something with it -- six saves in six tries, plus a hold. He hasn't coughed up a lead yet. (He's now one behind Jepsen for the team lead.)

The Twins made a small adjustment to their bullpen after the game, announcing that Neil Ramirez had been outrighted to Rochester -- meaning that he'd cleared waivers -- and Buddy Boshers had been recalled. I registered a mild beef when Boshers was optioned out earlier this month, but I also predicted he's be back before August. And so he is.

Boshers gives the Twins three lefties in their seven-man bullpen: Abad, Taylor Rogers and Boshers. The righties are Kintzler, Trevor May, Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin. I don't know who Molitor considers his long man in that crew, but this formulation is unlikely to survive the month anyway. 

Good-bye Jepsen, part two

The Twins formally released Kevin Jepsen on Monday, which means they were unable to find a taker for the remains of his $5.31 million contract. Shocking, ain't it?

Meaningless but odd: Last year, in his 28 innings with the Twins, Jepsen had an ERA of 1.61. This year, in 30.2 innings, 6.16. Sixes and ones ... 161616.

I assume somebody will pick up the veteran now that he's a free agent for about a 10th of what the Twins are paying him. He still has his velocity.

Meanwhile, the Twins are deep into a Plan B (or lower) bullpen. Remember, they were going to have a late-inning corps of Glen Perkins, Jepsen, Trevor May and Casey Fien. Perkins is out for the season, Jepsen released, Fien waived to the Dodgers and May sidelined by back and hip issues. If things develop this month as I hope they do, May could (should) transition back into a rotation role.

I certainly never imagined when watching Brandon Kintzler work in Fort Myers that I was watching their future closer. Jepsen leaves with seven saves on the season, which still tops the team stats, but Kintzler has five and will certainly pass Jepsen -- unless he gets traded.

Open and closer

Brandon Kintzler
lowered his ERA
to  2.30 Wednesday.

It took almost two months, three blown saves, five losses and an ERA of 6.17, but Kevin Jepsen has apparently been deposed as closer.

Brandon Kintzler got the call for the ninth inning Wednesday night, and the indy ball refugee allowed one single and picked up a strikeout to collect his first major league save.

Kintzler is not, apparently, to be the closer. Paul Molitor indicated after the game that Fernando Abad is likely to get some opportunities. His next save will also be his first. I also wouldn't be stunned if Michael Tonkin or Trevor May found some save opps along the way. 

May, incidentally, made his first appearance in more than a week on Wednesday, face one hitter, got him out and left. It wasn't exactly a stint that made me feel confident that he's over his back/hip soreness.

I doubt this job sharing thing will last long. It's not as easy as it sounds to do matchups and monitor workloads. Sooner or later, probably sooner, Molitor will pick somebody and give him the glory job. If nothing else, Glen Perkins might be nearly ready to go on a minor league rehab assignment. 

But it was time to back off on Jepsen -- not just for save situations, but for game situations, whether they be in the ninth, eighth or seventh innings. His appearances were bring back too many Ron Davis memories. There's probably a couple of generations of readers for whom that reference means little, but for those of us who were around in the 1980s, it can give us the shakes.

Catching up on the roster shuffle

I took a rather skeptical view in the Monday print column of the effectiveness of the Twins roster shuffle. To catch up on what's happened:

• LHP Tommy Milone, waived, went unclaimed and was assigned to Rochester. 
• RHP Casey Fien, waived, was claimed by the Los Angeles Dodgers and remains in the majors.
• C John Ryan Murphy was optioned to Rochester.
• SS Eduardo Escobar went on the disabled list.
• LHP Ryan O'Rourke was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
• RHP J.R. Graham was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
• RHP Ervin Santana was activated from the disabled list.
• OF Darin Mastroianni was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
• C Juan Centeno was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
• LHP Pat Dean was called up.
• RHP Brandon Kintzler was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.

That adds up to six of the 25 roster spots, or 24 percent of the roster turned over between the end of Wednesday's game and the beginning of Saturday's. But it only involves one lineup regular (the freshly injured Escobar) and one rotation slot (Santana).

I am, obviously surprised that Milone passed through waivers and Fien did not. I was pretty certain that somebody would think Milone can help their rotation. As I said in the linked column, I'm not pleased with the selection of Kintzler over a higher-profile bullpen arm. (In Thursday's post I mentioned Nick Burdi as a possibility, but he went on the disabled list at Chattanooga with what is being described as a bone bruise on his upper arm.) And while I probably shouldn't make another prediction after getting Milone and Fien wrong, I expect both Graham and O'Rourke to clear waivers and remain in the organization.

And as for the catcher swap-out,  I can only note sourly that the third White Sox run on Sunday was set up when Tyler Duffey struck out a White Sox hitter with a curve in the dirt and it got away from Centeno. That makes 21 wild pitches for the team already. Tim Laudner, on the FSN postgame, made the same point about wild pitches that I have -- they're often partly the catcher's fault, and he clearly was not impressed with Centeno's inability to corral that pitch.