Washington and the ex-Twins factor

The Washington Nationals made short work of the NLCS, sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals so emphatically -- the Cardinals never had a lead in any game -- that they didn't have to pull their starters-as-relievers bullpen gimmick.

And so Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki and Fernando Rodney, three ex-Twins of varying tenure, are going to the World Series. As is Anibal Sanchez, who was in spring training with the Twins as a non-roster invitee in 2018 and was released when the Twins signed Lance Lynn. Since then Sanchez has pitched more than 300 innings with an ERA of  3.39. (He pitched more innings this year as the Nationals' fourth starter than Jake Odorizzi worked for the Twins.)

We can call Sanchez an ex-Twin, or decide that a few weeks in spring training doesn't count -- but he certainly qualifies as one who got away.

As for the others:

Dozier, now 32, had the lion's share of playing time at second base for the Nats and bopped 20 homers, but Howie Kendrick has pretty much taken over the position in the postseason. He was a bench piece for the Dodgers in last year's World Series also.

Suzuki, now 36, essentially splits the catching chores with former Indians backstop Yan Gomes. Gomes is the better receiver, Suzuki the better bat. I frankly thought Suzuki was pretty much done when his Twins tenure ended, but playing a little less than half-time has worked well for him the pst three seasons. Uniquely among the Nats' ex-Twins, he's signed through next season.

Rodney, now 42, is one of the bullpen pieces the Nationals seek diligently to avoid using in key moments. The Nats picked him up after the A's released him; he pitched in 38 games for Washington with an ERA of 4..05, which is considerably better than the 9.42 he had with Oakland.


Their roles are smaller than they were with the Twins, and their time remaining in the majors is dwindling. But if this is it for Dozier and Rodney, they're going out on a big platform.

Goodbye, Rodney

The Twins moved Fernando Rodney to the Oakland A's in a waiver deal Thursday.

As with the Brian Dozier trade earlier, I don't particularly care for it. The Twins could have kept Rodney; they had a reasonably priced option on him for 2019, and while The Fernando Rodney Experience can be difficult to watch, they have no obvious successor to him for the closer role.

And the significant thing about not having an obvious closer candidate is that it makes organizing the rest of the bullpen more complicated. 

This is Paul Molitor's fourth season as manager. It is the fourth season in which he has had to change his closer in midseason. 

2015: Glen Perkins (injury) gave way to Kevin Jepsen

2016: Perkins (injury continued) gave way in the first week to Jepsen (ineffective), who was released and succeeded by Brandon Kintzler

2017: Kintzler (traded) gave way to Matt Belisle

2018: Rodney (traded) followed by ...

So Molitor's been through this before. Off his track record, I would expect him to prefer somebody who

• is a 30-something veteran
• throws strikes and
• has never held the closers role before.

The closest thing to that template on the current roster might be Matt Magill, who is 28, has zero career saves and has walked just two men per nine innings since his callup. Another possibility would be Trevor May, who has had a fraction of Magill's innings as he forges his way back from Tommy John surgery. He's also 28.

Of course, Molitor could discard that template and try one of the younger arms. Gabriel Moya has a pretty impressive minor league record as a closer. So does Trevor Hildenberger, who is slumping. Molitor seems to have regained faith in Taylor Rogers, and there are power arms in the minors (Alan Busenitz, John Curtiss) who could tolerate a sustained opportunity. Another possibility, one that would really shatter the Molitor mold: Fernando Romero.

I really have no clue what Molitor will do. And just to further complicate this, there are rumblings that the Twins may soon adopt the "opener" strategy deployed this season by Tampa Bay.

Dakota Chambers, the arm the Twins got in the trade, is a really high-risk acquisition. He  pitched all of five innings this season (low-A Beloit) before having Tommy John surgery. He had no history of success before the surgery, largely because he has never thrown strikes with any consistency. When I say I don't care for this trade, it's because it is exceedingly unlikely that Chambers will ever reach Double A, much less the majors. 

As for Rodney and the A's: Oakland appears to be following the Kansas City Royals model of 2014-15 and stacking up power arm relievers. Blake Treinen is at the top of that food chain (0.93 ERA with 29 saves and one homer allowed in 58 innings), with Lou Trivino (1.29 ERA) behind him, joined now by Rodney, former Mets closer Jeurys Familia (2.31 ERA, 17 saves before his trade to Oakland) and Shawn Kelley, formerly of the Nationals (3.27 ERA this season).

Rodney's not likely to get to fire a lot of metaphoric arrows the rest of the way, but he's now part of a bullpen of extraordinary depth and quality.

Contemplating Fernando Rodney

Sunday was another Fernando Rodney Experience save. He allowed three base runners but escaped unscathed.

I did not greet last winter's signing of Rodney with enthusiasm. I coped in part by surmising that this ancient wonder of the bullpen world was going to serve as a place holder for a younger closer who was yet to emerge from a field of candidates.

It's August, and that younger closer has yet to show himself. The Twins have used 19 relief pitchers (not counting moonlighting starters or position players), and Rodney has the lowest ERA of the lot.

I have resigned myself to the liklihood that the Twins will pick up Rodney's option ($4.25 million for 2019 or a $250,000 buyout). He'll be back for another round as closer next season.

I don't think that's ideal, but none of the young power arms has forced his way into the Twins thinking. Of course, none have been given a genuine opportunity to hang around for more than a couple days at a time.

Experiencing Fernando Rodney

The Twins got the not-so-good Fernando Rodney Experience on Thursday. The Twins closer hit one batter and walked two, the second with the bases loaded, to blow a save opp. The Twins eventually prevailed in 13 innings anyway, but Rodney's loss of command stressed his bullpen mates and leaves the relief corps wearied going forward.

That said, Rodney has been impressively good since April's chronic uncertainty. His ERA remains below 3, which didn't seem possible two months ago (his ERA entering May was 5.87).

It is a major oversimplification to depict the Twins' offseason closer decision as a binary one of Rodney or Brandon Kintzler; there was a wide range of options available to the Minnesota front office, some more practical than others.

Kintzler took a slightly richer deal to be a setup man with Washington than the 41-year-old Rodney accepted with the Twins. At the time, I thought, and wrote, that the Twins would have been better off bringing back Kintzler.

As June nears its conclusion, it appears that I was wrong. Kintzler's walk rate has almost doubled this year. Rodney, who carries a merited reputation for lack of command, actually has a superior BB/9 rate this season. Kintzler's ERA is pushing 4.50.

To be fair, Kintzler's FIP -- fielding independent pitching -- suggests that he is actually pitching almost exactly as well this year as last. FIP says he didn't fully merit his 3.03 cumulative ERA in 2017 and is doing better than his 4.45 this season.

But Rodney is getting better results than Kintzler. I didn't see that coming.

Contemplating Fernando Rodney

On April 26, Fernando Rodney entered with a lead. He did not get an out, and the Yankees beat the Twins. At that point Rodney had a 1-2 record with two saves, two blown saves and an ERA of 6.75. He had not had a 1-2-3 inning in 2018.

He has allowed one run since. He has allowed just 10 baserunners in 11.1 innings -- five hits, five walks . His ERA on the season is 2.84, which isn't eye-popping for a closer but a far cry from his April figure. He's even had seven 1-2-3 innings, which helps mute The Fernando Rodney Experience jibes.

While the Twins bullpen has its issues, Rodney is not one of them. A month ago, I could not have said that.

Notes, quotes and comment

The lead to an obit in today's Free Press:

Rose Anna Monson passed away peacefully at her home Wednesday, May 2, 2018 surrounded by her children - and after watching her beloved Minnesota Twins win one last time.

So she got to see Fernando Romero's debut.

Which is good, because Thursday's walk-off loss probably would have killed her.

---

No matter how the Fernando Rodney Experience plays out in Minnesota -- and the veteran closer did close out Friday's win in Chicago -- there appears to be one positive from having him around.

In spring training Rodney showed Romero his changeup. And the younger Fernando R. appears to have adopted it pretty well.

Romero has long had the fastball and slider. I don't know that he has mastered the change as well as Rodney has, but a Rodney-caliber change could genuinely make Romero an ace. Well, assuming he has the command and durability to pitch 200-plus innings a season.

---

Brian Dozier hit second Friday. Last year he hit leadoff every time he was in the starting lineup. I don't know that dropping him a slot in the batting order is why he broke out of his slump, but it sure worked.

---

Albert Pujols got his 3,000th hit Friday. I don't believe he's really helping the Angels much, but I also view him as the greatest first baseman in baseball history. The milestone is just piling on.

The arson squad lights up another one

Seven losses in a row for the Twins now, three of them walk-offs. What a disastrous road trip for the Twins.

The veteran bullpen additions -- Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke and Addison Reed -- each bear a walkoff loss on their lines in this span. And yeah, Rodney had some "help" Thursday from the corner infielders (Miguel Sano and Logan Morrison) in setting up the fatal homer, but this remains true: Rodney has yet to have a 1-2-3 inning.

The Twins shuffled a bullpen roster spot repeatedly Thursday: First they filled the spot vacated by Tyler Kinley with Aaron Slegers, which gave them a long man if Kyle Gibson's start went poorly. (It didn't; it might have been the best start of Gibson's career.) During the game they announced that they had claimed David Hale on waivers; after the game they returned Slegers to Rochester. So Slegers had a prime seat for Thursday's game and got paid for watching, which isn't that bad a deal.

Claiming Hale, a 30-year-old who has pitched in the majors for Atlanta, Colorado and the Yankees without really establishing himself, feels like a return to the revolving door of mediocrity the Twins spun around in last season. I didn't expect that this season.

Thad Levine, the No. 2 in the Twins front office, told reporters the Twins had pursued Hale during the offseason. True or not, Hale is not really a fix for what ails this pitching staff. He's going to be used as a long man. The problems are early in games, with inconsistent starts, and late in games, where the Rodney-Reed-Duke-Trevor Hildenberger-Taylor Rogers quintent have not gotten it done.

The Fernando Rodney Experience

Fernando Rodney has appeared in seven regular season games now for the Twins. He has two saves, two blown saves (one a vultured win), and a loss in a game he entered tied.

What he doesn't have yet is a clean, 1-2-3 inning. He had a chance at that Friday night, but after striking out the first two men he faced with a one-run lead he put a pitch in Carlos Gomez's ribs. Then came a steal and a grounder that bounced over the shortstop, and the lead was gone.

And the next inning Zach Duke, who is about as veteran as Rodney, messed up a PFP play at first base as the winning run scored from second.

I don't want to hear about the bad luck on the bounce, and I don't want to hear about the ump missing the call at first on Duke. The problem starts with hitting Go-Go. Rodney has spent his entire career flirting with disaster, and disaster took him up on the offer Friday.

It comes with the territory.

Fernando Rodney, playing in the snow

Fernando Rodney catches snowflakes in his mouth
during the ninth inning Wednesday in Pittsburgh.

I wasn't a big fan of the signing of Fernando Rodney to anchor the Twins bullpen, and I continue to have my doubts about the wisdom of that move.

But I can like this. The Dominican seems to revel in the snow. That attitude will probably come in handy for the upcoming homestand.

Random thoughts on the Twins opener

I understand and even agreed with Paul Molitor's decision to pinch-hit for Byron Buxton in the ninth inning, and the move obviously worked. But if the Twins are to get where they want to go, Buxton has to be the kind of hitter you don't even consider pinch-hitting for with the game on the line.

---

Welcome to the Fernando Rodney Experience. The veteran did a nice job getting out of an inherited jam in the 10th, only to serve up a first-pitch gopher ball to open the next inning.

The rebuilt back of the bullpen was a mixed bag. Addison Reed dominated in two innings of work; Zach Duke struck out four men in his one inning but also allowed two runs; and Trevor Hildenberger had trouble throwing strikes.

Duke, a lefty specialist throughout his bullpen career, faced a string of right-handed hitters, culminating with the two-run triple by the light-hitting Caleb Joseph. I suspect that by the time the season is over, Molitor will be more wary of that kind of useage of Duke.

---

The Baltimore Orioles had Chris Davis leading off. This is a far cry from tradition; Davis is a slow slugger. The closest thing in Buck Showalter's starting nine to an old-school flyboy, Craig Gentry, hit eighth. Which is pretty much where Gentry should hit.

The Birds just stack one power hitter after another. The Twins kept them in the park for 10 innings. They just didn't score enough themselves in that time frame.

Chasing saves with Fernando Rodney

Fernando Rodney's Grapefruit League stats were unimpressive. His two-homer outing Sunday left him with six runs allowed in seven innings in Florida, and left Dick Bremer on the telecast expounding on how Rodney still has his fastball velocity and his changeup.

Yes, and Rodney still has the command issues that have plagued him throughout his long career.

It's spring training. Soon that line on Rodney's Baseball Reference page will go away. Nail down a couple saves in Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the coming week, and few will remember his spring training stats.

Still, he's 41 and his contract is relatively disposable (one year, $4.5 million guaranteed with a team option for 2019). The Twins have Addison Reed, who has closed in the past (125 career saves) if they decide to replace Rodney with a veteran; they also have a selection of young relief prospects if they chose to go that route.

Going young at the end of games doesn't appear to be the decision makers' preference, however. Paul Molitor inherited Glen Perkins as his closer, and when Perkins' shoulder gave out has consistently chosen an established but low-ceiling arm for the ninth inning (Kevin Jepsen, Brandon Kintzler, Matt Belisle).

You can't get much more veteran than Rodney, and with a career ERA of 3.73 over 15 seasons, the ceiling is already constucted. Expectations for the team are high; I don't think they should be as high for Rodney. Which suggests to me that his leash may be rather short. The season starts in ernest on Thursday, and it's time for him to get some outs.

From the Handbook: Pitcher analysis

Let's take a dive into the Twins' newly signed closer, Fernando Rodney.

According to the Bill James Handbook, in 2017 Rodney

• threw a total of 978 pitches to 231 hitters
• struck out 65 men and walked 26
• 70 ground balls, 21 line drives and 43 fly balls
• threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches and got swinging strikes on 21 percent
• opened 114 at-bats with a no-ball, one-strike count, 94 one-ball, no-strike
• had 37 full counts
• went to two strikes on 133 hitters, three balls on 60

All of which tells us ... probably not very much. We already knew that command is sometimes a problem for him. We're going to see a lot of deep counts. (I didn't know, however, how many grounders Rodney got last season.)

Brandon Kintzler last year threw 64 percent of his pitches for strikes. The difference between Rodney and Kintzler on that doesn't sound like much ... just three percentage points. It amounts to about one less strike every three outings. But that difference adds up. It's why Kintzler walks less than two men per nine innings and Rodney more than four.

Rodney and Rule Five

The Twins had a busy Thursday with bullpen moves:

• They lost a pair of power arms from their Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft;
• They picked up a power arm from a Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft and
• They reached a reported contract agreement with veteran closer Fernando Rodney.

Let's start with the latter, since that is certain to have an effect on the 2018 team.

Most of us know Rodney to some degree. He spent seven years with Detroit to open his career; he was the losing pitcher in the famous Game 163 of 2009. He'll turn 41 during spring training, he's third in career saves among active pitchers (behind Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street), he's made three All-Star teams and the Twins will be his ninth major league team.

This well-crafted opinion was issued early Thursday, after news that Brandon Kintzler had reached a two-year deal with the Washington Nationals:

If the #MNTwins were/are more interested in Fernando Rodney than Brandon Kintzler, they're doing it wrong.

— Edward Thoma (@bboutsider) December 14, 2017

They are quite different in pitching styles and repertiores. Rodney throws 60 percent fastballs and alomost 40 percent changeups; Kintzler throws more than 80 percent fastballs. Kintzler's strikeout rate and walk rates are both near the bottom of the league; Rodney's strikeout and walk rates are both about twice Kintzler's. Rodney threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches (21 percent swinging strikes); Kintzler, 64 percent and 9 percent. (Stats from the Bill James Handbook.)

I'd rather have Kintzler pounding the strike zone than Rodney fighting his command. And since Paul Molitor's stated rationale for going with Kintzler and then Matt Belisle as his closers was that he could rely on them throwing strikes, I suspect Molitor might agree.

Kintzler got two years, $10 million from the Nats; Rodney one year at $4.5 to $6 million depending on incentives. (Both deals are pending physicals; both reportedly include an option year.)

It's possible the Twins preferred Kintzler too, but that Kintzler preferred the Nats. Or that the Twins truly see the addition of a veteran closer as a placeholder and want/expect to transition to a younger pitcher in that role as the season progresses and thus didn't want to do multiple guaranteed years. 

A lot of Twins fans will be irritated by his habit of wearing his cap cocked to the left and his post-save celebration of pantomining firing an arrow into the sky. I will be more irritated by the 2-0 counts and walks.

---

Lost in Rule 5: Nick Burdi and Luke Bard. Gained in Rule 5: Tyler Kinley. Three hard-throwing right handed relievers who spent much of 2017 in Double A.

Burdi and Bard were high draft picks during the second Terry Ryan era; both have missed more time than they've spent on the mound in the minors. The Twins reportedly tried to trade Burdi to the Braves last summer in the Jaime Garcia trade only to have him rejected on medical grounds. My guess is that the new regime does not believe either can remain sound enough to help the major league bullpen. And Burdi in particular is unlikely to fill the 90-day active roster requirement to retain Rule 5 picks in 2018. 

Kinley has been in the Marlins organization. His numbers in Double A and Triple A are not impressive, but he has apparently been dominating in winter ball so far, and the Twins opted to take a flier on him.

I will be surprised if Kinley sticks.