The Twins returned Ervin Santana to the disabled list during the weekend. The post-surgical middle finger clearly wasn't up to the demands of major league pitching.
Presumably this is it for Santana as a Twin. He gave the Twins two solid seasons, one useless one, and one solid half-season marred by a steroid suspension.
I'm not down on him for this useless one. He did what he could with the injury last year and did what he could with the digit in rehab this year. He said something a couple of starts ago about giving the team 100 percent of what he had, and I accept that.
No, it's 2015 that still sticks in my craw. Who knows what that team would have accomplished had he not missed half the season with a self-inflicted banishment? The Twins were in the wild-card hunt right up to the end.
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Two pitching moves over the weekend: Stephen Gonsalves comes up to replace Santana in the rotation -- he starts tonight against the White Sox -- and the Twins sub in Alan Busenitz for Tyler Duffey.
Gonsalves is an intriguing prospect. The fastball velocity is not overwhelming, the breaking ball is apparently mediocre, and the control record is not good. But he is absurdly difficult to hit. He has a good changeup, and the fastball is said to have a high spin rate, which apparently is an objective measurement that aligns with the old-school description of "sneaky fast."
He was taken in the same draft as Kohl Stewart but three rounds later and was generally moved up the ladder more slowly. But he was better than Stewart on every level.
I'm glad to see him up here now. I'm considerably more optimistic about Gonsalves's chances to be a useful major league starter than I am about Stewart.
As for the bullpen move: The Monday print column examines the current state of experimentation in the Twins bullpen. The trades of Fernando Rodney, Ryan Pressly and Zach Duke opened three significant roles in the relief corps, and with the exception of lefty specialist -- Taylor Rogers assumes that role and Gabriel Moya slides into Rogers' old slot -- Paul Molitor is holding open auditions.
It's a rather long column as these things go, and I didn't bother mentioning either Busenitz or Duffey. Thye're both clearly behind Trevor May, Trevor Hildenberger and Matt Magill, and probably, absurd as it sounds, behind Oliver Drake as well.
Which doesn't mean either can't pitch their way into the Twins plans. It just means they're behind in the competition.
Showing posts with label Ervin Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ervin Santana. Show all posts
Monday, August 20, 2018
Friday, August 17, 2018
Contemplating Ervin Santana
The expectation was that Ervin Santana would be moved this month in a waiver deal to a contender.
Five starts into his belated 2018 season, that seems highly unlikely. Santana didn't get an out in the fifth inning Thursday. He is averaging a bit less than five innings a start with an ERA of 8.03. His velocity is down and his home runs are up.
Clearly the surgery on his right middle finger has proven more serious than anyone involved expected -- or at least admitted -- back in February.
The Twins hold a $14 million option on him for 2019. I expect them to pay the buyout instead and let Santana, 35. go.
They may not even wait until the offseason. The time is coming when the roster spot, or at least the rotation berth, is more valuable than what remains to be paid of his 2018 salary.
We're not there yet, if only because Aldaberto Mejia is still on the disabled list. The Twins can be patient and hope that Santana shows something useful in his next start. But if and when his presence gets in the way of evaluating Mejia and/or Kohl Stewart for 2019, Santana may well be release bait.
Five starts into his belated 2018 season, that seems highly unlikely. Santana didn't get an out in the fifth inning Thursday. He is averaging a bit less than five innings a start with an ERA of 8.03. His velocity is down and his home runs are up.
Clearly the surgery on his right middle finger has proven more serious than anyone involved expected -- or at least admitted -- back in February.
The Twins hold a $14 million option on him for 2019. I expect them to pay the buyout instead and let Santana, 35. go.
They may not even wait until the offseason. The time is coming when the roster spot, or at least the rotation berth, is more valuable than what remains to be paid of his 2018 salary.
We're not there yet, if only because Aldaberto Mejia is still on the disabled list. The Twins can be patient and hope that Santana shows something useful in his next start. But if and when his presence gets in the way of evaluating Mejia and/or Kohl Stewart for 2019, Santana may well be release bait.
Thursday, July 26, 2018
Santana's return
It wasn't a stellar line score for Ervin Santana on Wednesday on his first major league start of the season: Five innings, seven hits, three runs allowed. Not close to a "quality start."
But not that bad, either. The veteran walked one hitter (and hit one) and struck out five. Granted, Toronto isn't a great lineup these days, but Santana's velocity was in the low 90s and he threw strikes with 60 of his 97 pitches.
I'll take that for his first game back after finger surgery. There's a genuine possiblity that he'll get better as he gts more action.
I do expect the Twins to trade at least one of their two free-agent-to-be starters in the coming week. Lance Lynn has had a rough time of it in the American League, and Santana is in a sense still rehabbing his finger. I don't expect a robust market for either, particularly among the American League powers, but there's no shortage of National League contenders who could stand to deepen their rotations.
But not that bad, either. The veteran walked one hitter (and hit one) and struck out five. Granted, Toronto isn't a great lineup these days, but Santana's velocity was in the low 90s and he threw strikes with 60 of his 97 pitches.
I'll take that for his first game back after finger surgery. There's a genuine possiblity that he'll get better as he gts more action.
I do expect the Twins to trade at least one of their two free-agent-to-be starters in the coming week. Lance Lynn has had a rough time of it in the American League, and Santana is in a sense still rehabbing his finger. I don't expect a robust market for either, particularly among the American League powers, but there's no shortage of National League contenders who could stand to deepen their rotations.
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Ervin Santana and the rotation
The expectation here on Tuesday was that Adalberto Mejia would lose his roster spot to make room for Ervin Santana, who is to make his 2018 debut for the Twins tonight in Toronto.
Instead, the Twins after Tuesday's game designated utility man Taylor Motter for assignment.
Motter has distinguished himself only by possessing the longest hair in team history, so his likely departure (either by waiver claim or free agency) is minor news. What is interesting is that the Twins now have six starting pitchers on their active roster.
Three possibilities:
The first and last can be paired with the second, a temporary measure during this final week before the non-waiver trading deadline that avoids moving Mejia back to the minors and restarting his 10-day option clock.
But No. 2, a trade, seems the most likely reason to keep Mejia in the bigs. And it seems to me that if Santana tonight displays some velocity (say 92 mph) and command of his slider, he would be more desirable trade bait than fellow free-agent-to-be Lance Lynn.
True, Santana has done nothing in the majors to this point. A team looking to deepen its rotation for the stretch run might still prefer that lack of a record to what Lynn has produced this season.
Instead, the Twins after Tuesday's game designated utility man Taylor Motter for assignment.
Motter has distinguished himself only by possessing the longest hair in team history, so his likely departure (either by waiver claim or free agency) is minor news. What is interesting is that the Twins now have six starting pitchers on their active roster.
Three possibilities:
- Paul Molitor will go with a six-man rotation.
- A veteran pitcher is about to be traded.
- Somebody is getting shifted to the bullpen.
The first and last can be paired with the second, a temporary measure during this final week before the non-waiver trading deadline that avoids moving Mejia back to the minors and restarting his 10-day option clock.
But No. 2, a trade, seems the most likely reason to keep Mejia in the bigs. And it seems to me that if Santana tonight displays some velocity (say 92 mph) and command of his slider, he would be more desirable trade bait than fellow free-agent-to-be Lance Lynn.
True, Santana has done nothing in the majors to this point. A team looking to deepen its rotation for the stretch run might still prefer that lack of a record to what Lynn has produced this season.
Tuesday, July 10, 2018
Gone and back
Ryan LaMarre, who made the Minnesota roster out of spring training, bounced up and down, got some regular playing time in center with Byron Buxton's rehab assignment/demotion and was finally waived by the Twins, was claimed by the Chicago White Sox.
I found LaMarre an easy player to root for, but that hardly overcomes his limitations as a ballplayer. He looked like a good defensive outfielder (the metrics didn't really agree), displayed little power at the plate and made too many baserunning mistakes. In that last he was hardly unique on this team. Jake Cave has a higher ceiling.
LaMarre was a fringe guy on the Twins. He'll be a fringe guy with the White Sox.
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The Twins announced that Felix Jorge had been released and then re-signed to a minor league contract.
The mechanics here are ... interesting, at least to me. Jorge was called up twice last season for spot starts and spent the offseason and much of season on the 40-man roster but sidelined by a triceps injury. The Twins DFA'd him at the start of the month to create a spot for Willians Astudillo.
So Jorge cleared waivers -- and then apparently, the Twins released him and re-signed him rather than outright him. The advantage for the Twins: If and when they decide to put him on the 40 again only to decide to take him off, he won't have the option of declaring free agency. He had that opportunity this time around.
This is probably all academic anyway, certainly in the short term. Jorge is a long way from being a factor for the big league club.
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Closer to being a factor for the big league club: Ervin Santana is apparently expected to be restored to the Twins roster and rotation after the All-Star break. Barring a trade or injury involving somebody else, this is presumably not good news for Aaron Slegers.
A bit further away: Michael Pineda, signed to a two-year deal by the Twins last winter while he recovers from Tommy John surgery is slated to go on a rehab assignment later this month. He might get a month to six weeks in the major league rotation this year. I don't think the Twins were counting on that when they signed him.
I found LaMarre an easy player to root for, but that hardly overcomes his limitations as a ballplayer. He looked like a good defensive outfielder (the metrics didn't really agree), displayed little power at the plate and made too many baserunning mistakes. In that last he was hardly unique on this team. Jake Cave has a higher ceiling.
LaMarre was a fringe guy on the Twins. He'll be a fringe guy with the White Sox.
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The Twins announced that Felix Jorge had been released and then re-signed to a minor league contract.
The mechanics here are ... interesting, at least to me. Jorge was called up twice last season for spot starts and spent the offseason and much of season on the 40-man roster but sidelined by a triceps injury. The Twins DFA'd him at the start of the month to create a spot for Willians Astudillo.
So Jorge cleared waivers -- and then apparently, the Twins released him and re-signed him rather than outright him. The advantage for the Twins: If and when they decide to put him on the 40 again only to decide to take him off, he won't have the option of declaring free agency. He had that opportunity this time around.
This is probably all academic anyway, certainly in the short term. Jorge is a long way from being a factor for the big league club.
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Closer to being a factor for the big league club: Ervin Santana is apparently expected to be restored to the Twins roster and rotation after the All-Star break. Barring a trade or injury involving somebody else, this is presumably not good news for Aaron Slegers.
A bit further away: Michael Pineda, signed to a two-year deal by the Twins last winter while he recovers from Tommy John surgery is slated to go on a rehab assignment later this month. He might get a month to six weeks in the major league rotation this year. I don't think the Twins were counting on that when they signed him.
Friday, June 1, 2018
Darn close to must win
It's only the first of June. The Twins have more than 100 games to play. But these next two games against Cleveland feel darn close to must-win for Minnesota.
Cleveland now has a 6.5 game lead on the third-place Twins. Add a couple more to the margin, and it's hard to see how the Twins can stay in the race with the surging Tribe.
Cleveland's not the nearly perfect team it was last year; the bullpen is notably weaker, with Andrew Miller injured, Bryan Shaw gone and a number of guys who had big years in 2017 suddenly ineffective. But other than the starting rotation -- which itself has suddenly sprung a leak -- the Twins aren't nearly as good in any aspect as they were last year either.
The Twins were good enough last year, barely, to grab the last wild-card spot. This year, it appears, the best chance of making the playoffs is winning the AL Central. And two months into the season, that chance seems to be rapidly vanishing.
---
In Thursday's post I made an offhand comment about the imminent return of Ervin Santana. A few hours after I typed that, I learned what many others knew Wednesday, that Santana's rehab assignment had been aborted.
I have, from time to time, voiced caution about Santana's return. The role of the fingers in pitching is subtle but vital, and if the surgery on his right middle finger winds up imparing flexibility or feeling in the digit, that figures to be a significant problem. I should have been more skeptical Wednesday, especially considering the reports of diminished velocity in Santana's first two outings.
In other bad news, Joe Mauer's concussion symptoms apparently aren't getting any better. The chatter from the broadcasters late in the road trip was positive, but the standard broadcaser optimism was misplaced.
I think the Twins really miss the consistent quality of Mauer's at-bats and the example he sets. He plans his work and works his plan. We see so many flail-and-fail at-bats; we should appreciate Mauer's quiet professionalism more than we do.
Cleveland now has a 6.5 game lead on the third-place Twins. Add a couple more to the margin, and it's hard to see how the Twins can stay in the race with the surging Tribe.
Cleveland's not the nearly perfect team it was last year; the bullpen is notably weaker, with Andrew Miller injured, Bryan Shaw gone and a number of guys who had big years in 2017 suddenly ineffective. But other than the starting rotation -- which itself has suddenly sprung a leak -- the Twins aren't nearly as good in any aspect as they were last year either.
The Twins were good enough last year, barely, to grab the last wild-card spot. This year, it appears, the best chance of making the playoffs is winning the AL Central. And two months into the season, that chance seems to be rapidly vanishing.
---
In Thursday's post I made an offhand comment about the imminent return of Ervin Santana. A few hours after I typed that, I learned what many others knew Wednesday, that Santana's rehab assignment had been aborted.
I have, from time to time, voiced caution about Santana's return. The role of the fingers in pitching is subtle but vital, and if the surgery on his right middle finger winds up imparing flexibility or feeling in the digit, that figures to be a significant problem. I should have been more skeptical Wednesday, especially considering the reports of diminished velocity in Santana's first two outings.
In other bad news, Joe Mauer's concussion symptoms apparently aren't getting any better. The chatter from the broadcasters late in the road trip was positive, but the standard broadcaser optimism was misplaced.
I think the Twins really miss the consistent quality of Mauer's at-bats and the example he sets. He plans his work and works his plan. We see so many flail-and-fail at-bats; we should appreciate Mauer's quiet professionalism more than we do.
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Pic of the Week
 |
| Serving the ball up on a platter -- or a hand brace. |
Beside basic face shots, AP also moves posed shots of the player doing something -- holding a bat, flipping a ball in the air, taking his stance. These shots are probably of limited use to most newspapers.
Then there's post-surgical Ervin Santana doing this, probably in lieu of showing off his slider grip or something of that ilk.
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Twins rotation gets the finger
Ervin Santana had surgery on the middle finger of his pitching hand and isn't expected to join the Twins rotation until mid April at the earliest, perhaps not until May.
One can almost feel the panic rising among the fans. Even with Santana, the Minnesota rotation isn't particularly strong or deep. Even with Santana, the Twins had signaled their intent of adding at least one, preferably two, established starters who could slot into the first three spots in the rotation.
Reality check: Santana's finger doesn't add significantly to that urgency. It feels like it does because we focus on that Opening Day roster, but reality is that pretty much every team is going to use about 10 starting pitchers over the course of the season. Santana won't make 34 starts in 2018 as he did in 2017, but he's hardly out for the season. The Twins have to dip into their depth? We knew they would anyway.
And having said that, the April rotation now projects to be something like:
One can almost feel the panic rising among the fans. Even with Santana, the Minnesota rotation isn't particularly strong or deep. Even with Santana, the Twins had signaled their intent of adding at least one, preferably two, established starters who could slot into the first three spots in the rotation.
Reality check: Santana's finger doesn't add significantly to that urgency. It feels like it does because we focus on that Opening Day roster, but reality is that pretty much every team is going to use about 10 starting pitchers over the course of the season. Santana won't make 34 starts in 2018 as he did in 2017, but he's hardly out for the season. The Twins have to dip into their depth? We knew they would anyway.
And having said that, the April rotation now projects to be something like:
- Jose Berrios
- Kyle Gibson
- Aldaberto Mejia
- Phil Hughes
- somebody from the prospects pile of Aaron Slegers, Felix Jose, Stephen Gonsalves, Dietrich Enns and Zach Littell
The 1970 Baltimore Orioles or mid-90's Atlanta Braves, that ain't.
I listed Hughes in the fourth spot because he's a veteran with a sizable contract, but the Twins may have him in mind for the bullpen in the wake of his latest bout of surgery. He may actually belong in the last group fighting for a rotation spot -- which is where I figured he was when I thought Santana was healthy -- or he may not be in the running at all. (Trevor May is tweeting optimistically about his rehab progress, but he's not expected back until May at the earliest, and, like Hughes, may be viewed more as a bullpen piece as he returns from his ligament replacement.)
But I do not believe that will indeed be the April rotation. There will be an addition. There may be some subtractions. Rotations are almost always a work in progress, even before spring training begins.
Friday, November 10, 2017
From the Handbook: Starting pitcher rankings
Another new item in the Handbook this winter (and it suddenly feels like winter in southern Minnesota) is a system of ranking starting pitchers.
By their methodology -- complex enough that the book refers readers to the subscription Bill James Online site for a complete explaination -- Ervin Santana is currently the 14th best starter in baseball. (The Top 5: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander, a perfectly acceptable quintent and ranking.)
Santana is squeezed between Jose Quintana and Robbie Ray, two lefties considerably younger than Santana.
Kyle Gibson is 63rd (the system heavily favor the most recent starts, and he had a very strong September). Jose Berrios is 88th and Bartolo Colon is 99th. Aldaberto Mejia comes in at 129.
Those would be the five-most used starters of the 2017 Twins. I'm confident that most of us would rank Berrios higher than Gibson, and I would put Mejia above Colon but we're anticipating the future when we do that.
By their methodology -- complex enough that the book refers readers to the subscription Bill James Online site for a complete explaination -- Ervin Santana is currently the 14th best starter in baseball. (The Top 5: Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander, a perfectly acceptable quintent and ranking.)
Santana is squeezed between Jose Quintana and Robbie Ray, two lefties considerably younger than Santana.
Kyle Gibson is 63rd (the system heavily favor the most recent starts, and he had a very strong September). Jose Berrios is 88th and Bartolo Colon is 99th. Aldaberto Mejia comes in at 129.
Those would be the five-most used starters of the 2017 Twins. I'm confident that most of us would rank Berrios higher than Gibson, and I would put Mejia above Colon but we're anticipating the future when we do that.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment
Pretty impressive game for Ervin Santana on Friday night in San Francisco: A 91-pitch complete game shutout (a "Maddux") plus three RBIs on a "double." A single, certainly, but Denard Span dove for, came up short and knocked it away from himself and right fielder Hunter Pence.
If Span were as good a defensive center fielder as some in Minnesota seem to think he is, he catches that ball. Byron Buxton probably catches that ball. But Span is 33, his defensive metrics are in decline, and he didn't get there.
Twins fans have been blessed with some truly great defensive centerfielders over the past 30-plus years -- Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Buxton, Carlos Gomez. Span, even at his best, was never in their class.
---
Paul Molitor said after the game that Nik Turley will get Sunday's start, filling in for Hector Santiago, who went on the disabled list after his Tuesday start.
Turley is a left-handed refugee of indy ball who entered the pros as a 50th-round draft pick back in 2008. The draft doesn't go that long anymore. He spent years in the Yankee system, then a year in the Giants organization. He split 2016 between a Red Sox farm club and an independent team.
He's 27 and didn't even get an invite to major league camp this spring, but he has put up a combined 2.05 ERA between AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester (52.2 innings) this year. Perhaps more impressive, he's struck out 84 men in those 52.2 innings with just 15 walks.
I don't know what to expect from him. His stats for this year say he deserves the opportunity. His track record over the previous nine years doesn't necessarily agree.
---
No corresponding move has been made yet; my assumption is that Randy Rosario will be demoted, but that remains to be seen. The Twins won't bring Jorge Polanco off the bereavement list until they return to Minnesota after the weekend; the shortstop is in his native Dominican after the death of his grandfather. Kennys Vargas is back with the team for now. So there are roster moves ahead.
If Span were as good a defensive center fielder as some in Minnesota seem to think he is, he catches that ball. Byron Buxton probably catches that ball. But Span is 33, his defensive metrics are in decline, and he didn't get there.
Twins fans have been blessed with some truly great defensive centerfielders over the past 30-plus years -- Kirby Puckett, Torii Hunter, Buxton, Carlos Gomez. Span, even at his best, was never in their class.
---
Paul Molitor said after the game that Nik Turley will get Sunday's start, filling in for Hector Santiago, who went on the disabled list after his Tuesday start.
Turley is a left-handed refugee of indy ball who entered the pros as a 50th-round draft pick back in 2008. The draft doesn't go that long anymore. He spent years in the Yankee system, then a year in the Giants organization. He split 2016 between a Red Sox farm club and an independent team.
He's 27 and didn't even get an invite to major league camp this spring, but he has put up a combined 2.05 ERA between AA Chattanooga and AAA Rochester (52.2 innings) this year. Perhaps more impressive, he's struck out 84 men in those 52.2 innings with just 15 walks.
I don't know what to expect from him. His stats for this year say he deserves the opportunity. His track record over the previous nine years doesn't necessarily agree.
---
No corresponding move has been made yet; my assumption is that Randy Rosario will be demoted, but that remains to be seen. The Twins won't bring Jorge Polanco off the bereavement list until they return to Minnesota after the weekend; the shortstop is in his native Dominican after the death of his grandfather. Kennys Vargas is back with the team for now. So there are roster moves ahead.
Thursday, May 25, 2017
Ervin Santana and the 1.80 ERA
Ervin Santana has made 10 starts this season, going 7-2 with a 1.80 ERA.
Wins are an exceptionally noisy stat, but he had seven wins total in each of his first two seasons with the Twins -- and now seven before the end of May.
More significant is the ERA, which is about 2.2 runs per nine innings below his career figure.
He's getting these results even though both his walks per nine innings and his strikeouts per nine innings have not only deteriorated from last season but are approaching career worsts.
According to Baseball Reference, Santana's FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching, an attempt to determine what his ERA would be with an average fielding team supporting him -- is 4.10, which is pretty much in line with his career figure (4.22). The 2017 Twins have been a better than average fielding team, but I doubt that everybody's getting two runs per nine innings of benefit.
Well, let's check it out. Hector Santiago and Phil Hughes are the next highest pitchers on the staff in starts (nine apiece) and innings (50 for Santiago, 47 for Hughes). Santiago has a 3.96 ERA and a 4.85 FIP -- a significant difference, but less than half what Santana is getting. Hughes, now on the disabled list, is the opposite -- his actual ERA, 5.74, is about a half run worse than his FIP, 5.29.
Small sample sizes are inherently noisy, and there are some subtle differences in the 2017 Santana -- a bit more movement on his pitches, a wider velocity differentation between his slider and changeup. His ERA in his final 18 starts of 2016 was 2.41, so we're really seeing a much longer run of markedly good results.
My expectation is that Santana's walk and strikeout rates will improve, which should lower his FIP. I also expect that his ERA will rise. Thirty-one hits allowed in 70 innings? That is not sustainable.
Wins are an exceptionally noisy stat, but he had seven wins total in each of his first two seasons with the Twins -- and now seven before the end of May.
More significant is the ERA, which is about 2.2 runs per nine innings below his career figure.
He's getting these results even though both his walks per nine innings and his strikeouts per nine innings have not only deteriorated from last season but are approaching career worsts.
According to Baseball Reference, Santana's FIP -- Fielding Independent Pitching, an attempt to determine what his ERA would be with an average fielding team supporting him -- is 4.10, which is pretty much in line with his career figure (4.22). The 2017 Twins have been a better than average fielding team, but I doubt that everybody's getting two runs per nine innings of benefit.
Well, let's check it out. Hector Santiago and Phil Hughes are the next highest pitchers on the staff in starts (nine apiece) and innings (50 for Santiago, 47 for Hughes). Santiago has a 3.96 ERA and a 4.85 FIP -- a significant difference, but less than half what Santana is getting. Hughes, now on the disabled list, is the opposite -- his actual ERA, 5.74, is about a half run worse than his FIP, 5.29.
Small sample sizes are inherently noisy, and there are some subtle differences in the 2017 Santana -- a bit more movement on his pitches, a wider velocity differentation between his slider and changeup. His ERA in his final 18 starts of 2016 was 2.41, so we're really seeing a much longer run of markedly good results.
My expectation is that Santana's walk and strikeout rates will improve, which should lower his FIP. I also expect that his ERA will rise. Thirty-one hits allowed in 70 innings? That is not sustainable.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Twins rotation and the WBC
It's hardly a crisis, but Paul Molitor this week hasn't anything close to his season opening rotation on hand.
Ervin Santana left camp to join the Dominican Republic team for the second round of the World Baseball Classic, and Hector Santiago and Jose Berrios were already with Team Puerto Rico. Toss in the season-ending injury to Trevor May, and the Twins are without two rotation locks and two primary candidates.
Not that Molitor is short on pitchers. Indeed, the absent ones have opened innings for a number of "lesser" candidates, specifically non-roster invitees Ryan Vogelsong and Nick Tepesch and Rule 5 pick Justin Haley. Vogelsong and Haley each drew their first spring starts this week, Vogelsong on Sunday, Haley on Monday.
May's injury in particular seems to have amped up the possibility of Vogelsong landing a rotation spot. The 39-year-old would seem to have limited upside and I'm not sure that his floor is very high, but the Twins seem to value his experience.
An interesting quote (via the Pioneer Press and Mike Beranadino) from Vogelsong:
"... I know there’s a competition, so there’s definitely a fine line of where you go, ‘I’m working on stuff but I need to get results too.’ I think the powers that be here are smart enough to see spin and pitches being executed and doing the things you need to do to win a ballgame.”My translation of that: Vogelsong is taking the established veteran approach to spring despite knowing that he's not established. He's confident that the new front office will look beyond the spring training ERAs and examine the data gathered from their TrackMan system -- objective data on his pitches, the spin rates and the movement and location.
Will that be enough to get him the fifth starter job? My personal bias is for the guys with some growth potential, and that ain't him. I can't see Vogelsong as anything deeper than a placeholder.
---
Hector Santiago, as noted in the Monday print column, is working out of the Puerto Rican bullpen. Tuesday night he threw 2.2 shutout innings as Puetro Rico beat the powerful Dominicans 3-1. Santiago has now thrown 5.1 innings in the WBC, allowing one run.
My grasp of the pitching rules for the WBC is incomplete, but I believe Santiago has been burned for the rest of the second round. Berrios is to start against Venezuela in Puerto Rico's third game of the round.
---
This will be interesting to see play out: Ervin Santana had resisted the urge to play for the Dominicans, saying he wanted to focus on making his opening day start, but relented after the first round.
Reportedly he insisted that he be a starter -- he didn't want to go to San Diego to throw a couple innings of relief -- and the Twins apparently expected that he would be kept on their schedule so he remained on track to pitch on April 3, the Twins opening day.
That would have meant pitching Tuesday night. Instead, Carlos Martinez (St. Louis Cardinals) got the start against Puerto Rico. Santana is to start on Saturday against Team USA, which is as far off the schedule as he can be.
I don't know what Santana and the Twins were told before Santana agreed to play, but it's quite possible somebody thinks they were lied to. Tuesday was an off day for the Twins, and major league camp was closed, but Thad Levine issued a bland statement saying that he was sure the Twins could adjust things so Santana can start the opener.
And I think that's true. This isn't optimal, but the Twins should be able to work around it.
Friday, September 30, 2016
The fading of the 200-inning pitcher
Ervin Santana's 2016 season is done. He put up a 3.38 ERA, tied for second lowest of his 12-year career, in 181.1 innings and 30 starts. He was on the disabled list for two weeks early in the year, and if I remember correctly had a couple of starts truncated or even washed out by rain, But all told, he averaged just over six innings per start, and started less than one-fifth of the team's games.
One-hundred eighty-one innings leads this team by a pretty substantial margin. It doesn't rank all that highly among American League starters -- Santana entered Thursday 20th in the league in innings, and I expect he'll be passed by some in the final days of the season.
I am, yet again, struck by the way the game has changed over my decades as a fan. As of Thursday, just seven American League starters had worked 200 innings -- seven pitchers on 15 clubs. Again, that number is likely to rise a bit in the final days of the campaign, but still ... My current Strat-O-Matic project involves the eight worst teams of 1969, and there are 11 200-plus inning pitchers on those teams. Pitchers in that era frequently started more often in a season, and they emphatically expected to average more than six innings a start.
The Twins have had just three 200-inning seasons since they moved to Target Field: Carl Pavano in 2010 and 2011 and Phil Hughes in 2013.
We sometimes scoff at the "innings-eater" label attached to less-than-stellar hurlers, but the ability to last a full season in a major league rotation and get consistently into the seventh inning is valuable. Santana has had a pretty good season, and he couldn't do either.
One-hundred eighty-one innings leads this team by a pretty substantial margin. It doesn't rank all that highly among American League starters -- Santana entered Thursday 20th in the league in innings, and I expect he'll be passed by some in the final days of the season.
I am, yet again, struck by the way the game has changed over my decades as a fan. As of Thursday, just seven American League starters had worked 200 innings -- seven pitchers on 15 clubs. Again, that number is likely to rise a bit in the final days of the campaign, but still ... My current Strat-O-Matic project involves the eight worst teams of 1969, and there are 11 200-plus inning pitchers on those teams. Pitchers in that era frequently started more often in a season, and they emphatically expected to average more than six innings a start.
The Twins have had just three 200-inning seasons since they moved to Target Field: Carl Pavano in 2010 and 2011 and Phil Hughes in 2013.
We sometimes scoff at the "innings-eater" label attached to less-than-stellar hurlers, but the ability to last a full season in a major league rotation and get consistently into the seventh inning is valuable. Santana has had a pretty good season, and he couldn't do either.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Notes, quotes and comment
Nice game Tuesday for Ervin Santana. Can't say the same for the Twins hitters, of course, but Santana knocked his ERA under 3.80 with the complete game.
Rob Antony. the interim GM, has said he's not actively shopping the veteran starter as the trading deadline approaches. If Antony is being honest when he says he's not under orders to pare the payroll, I'm fine with that. The Twins need to open a rotation spot for Jose Barrios, but I'd rather open that slot at the end of the rotation than at the head of it.
That said, the clamor for Ricky Nolasco's services is somewhat less than deafening.
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This search firm reportedly comes highly recommended by the owners of the Blue Jays and Brewers, who used it to hire their GMs last offseason, and the Timberwolves used it in the process of hiring Tom Thibodeau. I doubt any basketball fan needed a search firm to identify Thibodeau; the guy the Jays hired had worked with Mark Shapiro in Cleveland; David Stearns was widely known in the industry as an up-and-comer. I'm skeptical that the firm added any real value to the outcomes of those hires.
Mike Berardino offers this 10-man list of outside candidates. Not on his list, for whatever reasons, is Kim Ng, who I've seen named elsewhere.
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Kurt Suzuki caught Tuesday, three days after getting seven stitches in his chin. I mention it with a sense of incredulity.
Rob Antony. the interim GM, has said he's not actively shopping the veteran starter as the trading deadline approaches. If Antony is being honest when he says he's not under orders to pare the payroll, I'm fine with that. The Twins need to open a rotation spot for Jose Barrios, but I'd rather open that slot at the end of the rotation than at the head of it.
That said, the clamor for Ricky Nolasco's services is somewhat less than deafening.
---
The @Twins announced today the franchise has retained Korn Ferry to assist the team in its search for new baseball operations leadership.— Dustin Morse (@Twins_morsecode) July 26, 2016
This search firm reportedly comes highly recommended by the owners of the Blue Jays and Brewers, who used it to hire their GMs last offseason, and the Timberwolves used it in the process of hiring Tom Thibodeau. I doubt any basketball fan needed a search firm to identify Thibodeau; the guy the Jays hired had worked with Mark Shapiro in Cleveland; David Stearns was widely known in the industry as an up-and-comer. I'm skeptical that the firm added any real value to the outcomes of those hires.
Mike Berardino offers this 10-man list of outside candidates. Not on his list, for whatever reasons, is Kim Ng, who I've seen named elsewhere.
---
Kurt Suzuki caught Tuesday, three days after getting seven stitches in his chin. I mention it with a sense of incredulity.
Friday, July 15, 2016
A pitching trade
The major league season resumes today, but on Thursday we got a notable pitching deal, which kinda sorta is the first volley of the midseason trading period. (That discounts the James Shields trade last month.)
San Diego shipped Drew Pomeranz, who was named to the NL All Star team, to Boston for prize prospect Anderson Espinoza, an 18-year-old pitching in low A ball. Baseball America rated Espinoza the 19th prospect in baseball during the offseason. That's a pretty solid pickup for a lefty who has already set a career high for major league innings.
Yeah.
Pomeranz is reputed to have turned his career around by adding an effective cutter to his arsenal, giving him a third pitch. It's quite possible that he is indeed now a better pitcher than he was a year ago; it's possible for a pitcher to add a pitch, discard a pitch, change his arm angle slightly, change his stride -- do one thing differently -- and have that make a huge difference.
But I am habitually suspicious of pitchers who thrive in San Diego and Petco Park and then move elsewhere. Environment matters, and the difference for a pitcher between Petco and Fenway is huge.
Beyond the wisdom of this deal: This trade may affect the asking price for other starters. There are reasons to value Pomeranz over, say, Ervin Santana -- youth, contract, upside -- but there is also reason to believe that Santana is the more reliable starter. Espinoza may well be the top prospect dealt this month, but that he moved at all may prompt the Twins to raise their sights on Santana in the next two weeks.
San Diego shipped Drew Pomeranz, who was named to the NL All Star team, to Boston for prize prospect Anderson Espinoza, an 18-year-old pitching in low A ball. Baseball America rated Espinoza the 19th prospect in baseball during the offseason. That's a pretty solid pickup for a lefty who has already set a career high for major league innings.
That one is going to hurt Boston if Pomeranz turns back into a pumpkin. https://t.co/BHupRuLKLe— John Manuel (@johnmanuelba) July 14, 2016
Yeah.
Pomeranz is reputed to have turned his career around by adding an effective cutter to his arsenal, giving him a third pitch. It's quite possible that he is indeed now a better pitcher than he was a year ago; it's possible for a pitcher to add a pitch, discard a pitch, change his arm angle slightly, change his stride -- do one thing differently -- and have that make a huge difference.
But I am habitually suspicious of pitchers who thrive in San Diego and Petco Park and then move elsewhere. Environment matters, and the difference for a pitcher between Petco and Fenway is huge.
Beyond the wisdom of this deal: This trade may affect the asking price for other starters. There are reasons to value Pomeranz over, say, Ervin Santana -- youth, contract, upside -- but there is also reason to believe that Santana is the more reliable starter. Espinoza may well be the top prospect dealt this month, but that he moved at all may prompt the Twins to raise their sights on Santana in the next two weeks.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
Ervin Santana, trade bait
Quite the game Ervin Santana pitched Wednesday afternoon: A two-hit shutout in which he faced just one batter over the minimum.
The veteran has suddenly put together a nice streak of starts:
That's a 1.62 ERA over four starts, 27.2 innings. Before that binge, I noted that Santana has had a few clunker seasons with 5-something ERAs and surmised that this would be another such, but he's now got the ERA down to 4.06. The next best ERA of the nine men to have started a game for the Twins is Kyle Gibson's 4.82.
We can nitpic this streak. The Yankees and A's are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the American League this year, and Wednesday's gem exploited a weary lineup (the noon start was about 10 hours after the end of Tuesday's rain-delayed game). But a 1.62 ERA is a 1.62 ERA.
There's been a bit of chatter about the high-level scouts appearing at Target Field during the just-completed homestand, and Terry Ryan has been rather blunt about his intent to make trades this month. Santana might be as appealing a piece of trade bait as Ryan has to offer.
A commenter Wednesday urged Ryan to "sell high" on Santana. I don't know that the return on him gyrates all that much start to start. He is who he is: a 33-year-old whose ERA and other stats (excepting the won-lost record) this year is pretty much in line with his career averages with two more seasons on his contract. The price for him may change more by perceived need and opportunity. Maybe the All-Star break is the best time to move him; maybe later in the month will be better.
We don't know for sure, and neither does Terry Ryan, He at least knows what the market actually is today.
The veteran has suddenly put together a nice streak of starts:
- June 19: 7.1 innings, 2 earned runs vs. Yankees
- June 25: 5 innings, 1 earned run vs Yankees
- July 1: 6.1 innings, 2 earned runs vs. Rangers
- July 6: 9 innings, 0 runs vs. Athletics
That's a 1.62 ERA over four starts, 27.2 innings. Before that binge, I noted that Santana has had a few clunker seasons with 5-something ERAs and surmised that this would be another such, but he's now got the ERA down to 4.06. The next best ERA of the nine men to have started a game for the Twins is Kyle Gibson's 4.82.
We can nitpic this streak. The Yankees and A's are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the American League this year, and Wednesday's gem exploited a weary lineup (the noon start was about 10 hours after the end of Tuesday's rain-delayed game). But a 1.62 ERA is a 1.62 ERA.
There's been a bit of chatter about the high-level scouts appearing at Target Field during the just-completed homestand, and Terry Ryan has been rather blunt about his intent to make trades this month. Santana might be as appealing a piece of trade bait as Ryan has to offer.
A commenter Wednesday urged Ryan to "sell high" on Santana. I don't know that the return on him gyrates all that much start to start. He is who he is: a 33-year-old whose ERA and other stats (excepting the won-lost record) this year is pretty much in line with his career averages with two more seasons on his contract. The price for him may change more by perceived need and opportunity. Maybe the All-Star break is the best time to move him; maybe later in the month will be better.
We don't know for sure, and neither does Terry Ryan, He at least knows what the market actually is today.
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Contemplating Ervin Santana
Ervin Santana fell to 1-7 Tuesday night. Won-loss is a lousy metric by which to measure a pitcher, but 1-7 is pretty extreme.
His 5.10 ERA is too.
This is the Twins opening day starter, their putative ace. News flash: He's having a bad season.
This is not unprecedented. Santana has had three 20-plus start seasons with ERAs that begin with 5. In 2007 he went 7-14, 5.76 (26 starts, 150 innings); in 2009 he went 8-8, 5.03 (23 starts, 139.2 innings); in 2012 he went 9-13, 5.16 (30 stats, 178 innings). All three seasons came with the Angels.
And in other years he generally provides 200-plus innings with an ERA under 4. There's no year-to-year consistency in his results. He is either a reliable anchor for the rotation or a problem.
The odd thing to my eyes: His strikeout and walk rates, the "leading indicator" stats I typically find most informative about a pitcher, are consistent in good years and bad. His BB/9 and K/9 rates this season are in line with his career norms.
This is Santana's 12th major league season, and it's shaping up to be Problem Year No. 4. One in three. He signed a four-deal deal with the Twins; you almost have to expect at least one year like this from him in that span.
His 5.10 ERA is too.
This is the Twins opening day starter, their putative ace. News flash: He's having a bad season.
This is not unprecedented. Santana has had three 20-plus start seasons with ERAs that begin with 5. In 2007 he went 7-14, 5.76 (26 starts, 150 innings); in 2009 he went 8-8, 5.03 (23 starts, 139.2 innings); in 2012 he went 9-13, 5.16 (30 stats, 178 innings). All three seasons came with the Angels.
And in other years he generally provides 200-plus innings with an ERA under 4. There's no year-to-year consistency in his results. He is either a reliable anchor for the rotation or a problem.
The odd thing to my eyes: His strikeout and walk rates, the "leading indicator" stats I typically find most informative about a pitcher, are consistent in good years and bad. His BB/9 and K/9 rates this season are in line with his career norms.
This is Santana's 12th major league season, and it's shaping up to be Problem Year No. 4. One in three. He signed a four-deal deal with the Twins; you almost have to expect at least one year like this from him in that span.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Catching up on the roster shuffle
I took a rather skeptical view in the Monday print column of the effectiveness of the Twins roster shuffle. To catch up on what's happened:
That adds up to six of the 25 roster spots, or 24 percent of the roster turned over between the end of Wednesday's game and the beginning of Saturday's. But it only involves one lineup regular (the freshly injured Escobar) and one rotation slot (Santana).
I am, obviously surprised that Milone passed through waivers and Fien did not. I was pretty certain that somebody would think Milone can help their rotation. As I said in the linked column, I'm not pleased with the selection of Kintzler over a higher-profile bullpen arm. (In Thursday's post I mentioned Nick Burdi as a possibility, but he went on the disabled list at Chattanooga with what is being described as a bone bruise on his upper arm.) And while I probably shouldn't make another prediction after getting Milone and Fien wrong, I expect both Graham and O'Rourke to clear waivers and remain in the organization.
And as for the catcher swap-out, I can only note sourly that the third White Sox run on Sunday was set up when Tyler Duffey struck out a White Sox hitter with a curve in the dirt and it got away from Centeno. That makes 21 wild pitches for the team already. Tim Laudner, on the FSN postgame, made the same point about wild pitches that I have -- they're often partly the catcher's fault, and he clearly was not impressed with Centeno's inability to corral that pitch.
- LHP Tommy Milone, waived, went unclaimed and was assigned to Rochester.
- RHP Casey Fien, waived, was claimed by the Los Angeles Dodgers and remains in the majors.
- C John Ryan Murphy was optioned to Rochester.
- SS Eduardo Escobar went on the disabled list.
- LHP Ryan O'Rourke was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
- RHP J.R. Graham was designated for assignment and remains in limbo.
- RHP Ervin Santana was activated from the disabled list.
- OF Darin Mastroianni was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
- C Juan Centeno was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
- LHP Pat Dean was called up.
- RHP Brandon Kintzler was added to the 40-man roster and to the 25-man roster.
That adds up to six of the 25 roster spots, or 24 percent of the roster turned over between the end of Wednesday's game and the beginning of Saturday's. But it only involves one lineup regular (the freshly injured Escobar) and one rotation slot (Santana).
I am, obviously surprised that Milone passed through waivers and Fien did not. I was pretty certain that somebody would think Milone can help their rotation. As I said in the linked column, I'm not pleased with the selection of Kintzler over a higher-profile bullpen arm. (In Thursday's post I mentioned Nick Burdi as a possibility, but he went on the disabled list at Chattanooga with what is being described as a bone bruise on his upper arm.) And while I probably shouldn't make another prediction after getting Milone and Fien wrong, I expect both Graham and O'Rourke to clear waivers and remain in the organization.
And as for the catcher swap-out, I can only note sourly that the third White Sox run on Sunday was set up when Tyler Duffey struck out a White Sox hitter with a curve in the dirt and it got away from Centeno. That makes 21 wild pitches for the team already. Tim Laudner, on the FSN postgame, made the same point about wild pitches that I have -- they're often partly the catcher's fault, and he clearly was not impressed with Centeno's inability to corral that pitch.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
The Opening Day starter
The Twins haven't decided who will get the ball opening day. Both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan have cast that decision as something of a competition among the starters.
Opening Day starter is probably a distinction without true significance. The vagaries of schedules and injuries quickly scramble the matchups; the popular notion that Opening Day starters spend the season largely matched up against each other is nonsense. But tradition dictates that you throw your best pitcher on Opening Day, and if the role matters to the player(s), it matters.
In my view, there are six leading candidates for the starting rotation, with the other candidates coming into play only if there are multiple injuries or other factors. The six, alphabetically: Tyler Duffey, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana.
For the opening job, let's scratch Nolasco (for two seasons of lousy performance), Duffey (less than half a season in the majors) and Milone (never qualified for the ERA title). Here are the arguments for the other three:
Gibson: Led the 2015 starters in innings and ERA. Boosted his strikeout rate last year, and some see a possible breakout season ahead for him.
Hughes: 2015's opening day hurler, his 2014 is probably the single best season in the field. Said to have reported to camp in better condition than last year.
Santana: The highest-paid pitcher in team history, he finished last season with seven quality starts during which time he put up a 1.62 ERA.
OK, there's no Cy Young favorite in that bunch, but it's a better collection than, say, the year Scott Diamond entered camp as the presumptive Opening Day starter.
My expectation right now is that Santana will be the choice, My preference, since I still harbor some resentment over Santana's PED suspension last year, would be Hughes. But, again, I don't think the choice carries as much significance as will the choice of who fills out the rotation, The Twins expect and need all three to make 30-plus starts. When they come is of lesser importance.
Opening Day starter is probably a distinction without true significance. The vagaries of schedules and injuries quickly scramble the matchups; the popular notion that Opening Day starters spend the season largely matched up against each other is nonsense. But tradition dictates that you throw your best pitcher on Opening Day, and if the role matters to the player(s), it matters.
In my view, there are six leading candidates for the starting rotation, with the other candidates coming into play only if there are multiple injuries or other factors. The six, alphabetically: Tyler Duffey, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana.
For the opening job, let's scratch Nolasco (for two seasons of lousy performance), Duffey (less than half a season in the majors) and Milone (never qualified for the ERA title). Here are the arguments for the other three:
Gibson: Led the 2015 starters in innings and ERA. Boosted his strikeout rate last year, and some see a possible breakout season ahead for him.
Hughes: 2015's opening day hurler, his 2014 is probably the single best season in the field. Said to have reported to camp in better condition than last year.
Santana: The highest-paid pitcher in team history, he finished last season with seven quality starts during which time he put up a 1.62 ERA.
OK, there's no Cy Young favorite in that bunch, but it's a better collection than, say, the year Scott Diamond entered camp as the presumptive Opening Day starter.
My expectation right now is that Santana will be the choice, My preference, since I still harbor some resentment over Santana's PED suspension last year, would be Hughes. But, again, I don't think the choice carries as much significance as will the choice of who fills out the rotation, The Twins expect and need all three to make 30-plus starts. When they come is of lesser importance.
Saturday, July 4, 2015
Here comes E. Santana, 80 games late
 |
| Alex Meyer had two major league outings and didn't fare well (ERA 16.88). |
The Twins shipped Alex Meyer back to Triple A to make room for Santana on the 25-man roster. They outrighted minor league veteran Doug Bernier to make room for Santana on the 40-man roster. (Bernier could have refused the designation and become a free agent, but probably figured that the demand for 35-year-old utility infielders with 83 major league at-bats would be light.)
How the Twins will make room for Santana in the rotation remains unknown. The demotion of Meyer suggests that the Twins will not demote one of the current starters (in order of rotation, Phil Hughes, Trevor May, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone and Mike Pelfrey). Which would make the options:
- Six-man rotation
- A trade
- Shifting one of the five to the bullpen
There appears little appetite among the decision makers for the six-man rotation, and I agree, in large part because at least two of the five rely on their two-seam fastballs (aka sinker) and, theoretically at least, such pitchers tend to do poorly on long rest.
A trade may well be the ultimate answer, especially if Ricky Nolasco's ankle ever shows sign of improvement, but I'll be surprised if that happens promptly.
Which would leave the bullpen shift option, Regular readers can probably guess that I regard Pelfrey as the logical choice to move. It's not going to be Hughes or Gibson; Milone, as a soft-tossing lefty, is a poor fit for a relief role; May, despite the worst actual ERA of the five, has the best FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of the group.
Pelfrey had been slated for the bullpen at the end of spring training (despite his objections), until the Santana suspension was announced. His ERA in June was 5.35. with peripheral numbers that were just as ugly. And there remain observers, such as the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino, who believe Pelfrey's stuff will play better in the bullpen. (Berardino has repeatedly compared Pelfrey to Wade Davis, the Royal's wipe-out eighth-inning arm.)
Pelfrey starts today. We'll see if there are more starts in his future. I hope not, at least with the Twins.
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